Miles/Kennedy UZR Rating

by AndyB83 on Jun 4, 2007 2:39 PM EDT

Adam Kennedy has become my favorite player to hate so far this year. However, I genuinely hope that changes being that we have him on the books for two more seasons. Neither his offense nor his defense have been particularly impressive to me. It is extremely hard to believe that he has actually saved this team one run with his defense. There have been multiple times where I've rolled my eyes following an Adam Kennedy defensive opportunity.

Even more surprising to me is that Aaron Miles' defense has cost the birds four runs. I generally feel pretty confident when a ball is hit in Miles direction and it seems that (more often than not) the guy typically gets the job done.

Personally, I feel best about the Cards' overall lineup on days when Eckstein takes SS and Miles fills in at 2B. Does anyone else share the same sentiments? Perhaps this objective data gives me reason to re-evaluate my subjective opinion. Or maybe it is that Miles rating is tarnished by his frequent out-of-position SS play recently. Is there a place to get just Miles' 2B rating? Also, have other defensive rating systems been released at this point in the season? I would be interested to see if this trend is consistent across rating systems.

Also, I would be interested to hear anyone else's subjective opinions concerning Miles versus Kennedy.

Poll

Who would your 2B be?

Aaron Miles every day

2 votes

Adam Kennedy every day

6 votes

Platoon for Miles on days with a LHP opponent

10 votes

Should have kept Ronnie Belliard

8 votes

Grudzielanek looks good even in KC (oh, hindsight)

4 votes

30 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 23 comments

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Comments

Miles has cost

-3 at 2B and -1 at SS. You have sample size issues for both obviously, but that's what's happened so far. This link will take you to links for the 2007 YDT list as well as the 2003-2007 data:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/uzr_2007_complete_list/#comments

Kennedy has been a historically a very good defender, and although sure-handed, Miles isn't anything too impressive.

The reason that these systems are so important is that you may think a guy makes diving plays and is sure-handed, but he's actually making many less plays than the other guy that "looks bad". That's really the whole point. Here's a good piece on the systems:
http://ussmariner.com/2006/01/24/evaluating-defense/

On the offensive side of things, Kennedy has the same EqA as our starting RF, so some patience is probably in order with him. He's been a pretty solid player for a long time. Although he could certainly be on the decline and I've also been less than impressed, it's pretty soon to judge.

by plh903 on Jun 4, 2007 2:49 PM EDT 0 recs

That should

be "career EqA".

by plh903 on Jun 4, 2007 2:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

And as far as

the bat goes with Miles and Kennedy, Miles has a 59 OPS+ and Kennedy has a 57. The difference being that for Miles this is much closer to his career numbers.

by plh903 on Jun 4, 2007 2:53 PM EDT 0 recs

early on

from a purely sun=bjective pov, I thought Kennedy's defense was outstanding. It seemed like he was making at least one great play every game. It's not been so great lately, but I have to wonder how much of that is due to not being played every day...

Don't Panic!!!

by SleepyCA on Jun 4, 2007 2:56 PM EDT 0 recs

erm subjective

Don't Panic!!!

by SleepyCA on Jun 4, 2007 2:58 PM EDT up 0 recs

It's hard to determine...

a player's range by watching on TV. It's also difficult to be objective about a player's defensive abilities when they don't produce with the bat.

Exhibit A is the huge amount of abuse Encarnacion takes on this board for his defensive play relative to, say, Duncan, who is a much worse outfielder according to just about any objective measure.

by guayzimi on Jun 4, 2007 3:00 PM EDT 0 recs

Splits... we need both

The problem is Kennedy can't hit a lefty to save his life. Why he doesn't switch hit, I'd like to know.

ab avg obp slg ops Miles 41 .317 .364 .366 .730 Kennedy 29 .103 .212 .207 .419

by Zubin on Jun 4, 2007 3:50 PM EDT 0 recs

He's got a career

100 pt. platoon split, sure. But Jesus, that's 29 AB.

Miles isn't really any better historically anyway.

by plh903 on Jun 4, 2007 3:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

Career Splits

Kennedy:
Versus RHP: 2801 ABs, .285 AVG, .337 OBP, .410 SLG, .747 OPS
Versus LHP: 782 ABs, .249 AVG, .308 OBP, .335 SLG, .643 OPS

Miles:
Versus RHP: 1081 ABs, .279 AVG, .312 OBP, .357 SLG, .670 OPS
Versus LHP: 314 ABs, .277 AVG, .339 OBP, .350 SLG, .689 OPS

Offensively speaking, the career numbers from these two guys seem to suggest that a platoon might be advantageous considering AVG, OBP, and OPS.

by AndyB83 on Jun 4, 2007 10:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

Not when you

consider the park.

by plh903 on Jun 4, 2007 11:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

To be a little more

detailed I guess. I don't want to do the OPS+ legwork by season, ugh. Here are their respective lgOPS numbers for their careers:

Kennedy: .766
Miles: .805

Coors field and the AL West make that 40 pt OPS split look much less insignificant, if at all, very quickly.

by plh903 on Jun 4, 2007 11:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

46 pt

whatever, you get the idea.

I'm just trying to set a record in replying to my own posts.

by plh903 on Jun 4, 2007 11:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yes...

Coors Field could have something to do with this... but actually Miles has improved his numbers against LHP since coming over to the Cards:

Miles 2006: .291 AVG .378 OBP

Miles 2007: .317 AVG .364 OBP

by AndyB83 on Jun 5, 2007 4:18 AM EDT up 0 recs

You've got a sample

size issue then. That's only 120 AB and we have way more information to work with than that. More to the point, every bleeder that gets through counts for 16 pts of OPS. To illustrate this, his RH BABIP with the Cardinals is 25 points higher than his career RH BABIP. Build that into his OBP and SLG and you have the 50 pts of OPS increase right there.

We can account for that with three singles over 120 AB. Hardly definitive information.

by plh903 on Jun 5, 2007 4:54 AM EDT up 0 recs

BABIP

Yeah, I didn't consider BABIP... good point. I think Adam Kennedy deserves a bit more patience than I've had with him thus far.

Thanks for discussing this with me. I appreciate your input.

by AndyB83 on Jun 5, 2007 8:46 AM EDT up 0 recs

Clearly Miles is a better option against lefties.

Here are Kennedy's and Miles' lines against lefties over the past three years:



          yr   ab   avg   obp   slg   ops

Kennedy   07   29  .103  .212  .207  .419

Kennedy   06   83  .193  .256  .277  .533

Kennedy   05  125  .296  .348  .336  .684

Miles     07   41  .317  .364  .366  .730

Miles     06   86  .291  .378  .360  .738

Miles     05   64  .234  .258  .313  .571

I see several things here. Clearly this year Miles has been better than Kennedy against lefties. Second, over the past three years Kennedy has showed a decline against them while Miles' aptitude seems to have increased.

Miles career ops split (L/R) is .689/.670 and his three year split is .673/.681. Kennedy's career split is .643/ .747 and his three year split is .657/ .757. So I think we can conclude while Miles has tended to hit lefties and righties equally through his career, Kennedy has a pretty reliable .100 ops difference.

Now if we look at their stats this year, overall this they are:
ab avg obp slg ops Kennedy 151 .225 .291 .285 .576 Miles 111 .261 .288 .306 .594

So it seems they have demonstrated themselves to be pretty equal hitters overall this year. Which means if you consider (1) three year trends and (2) the near universal nature of the platoon split, realistically Miles is clearly a better option against lefties.

But maybe you are holding out hope that Kennedy is still a .720 ops guy. Take his platoon split into account, and he'd be at best .680 against lefties. Coincidently this is exactly where Miles is for his career and .050 points lower than what Miles demonstrated over the past two years. Thus even in the "rosey case" scenario for Kennedy, Miles is at least just as good, and very likely a much better option against lefties!

by Zubin on Jun 7, 2007 1:05 AM EDT up 0 recs

re: Kennedy's defense

He's looked very good to me, so far. The big difference between the two of them, to my eyes, is that Miles will not make a play unless he is positioned perfectly. Kennedy can actually get to balls to his left and right.

by DanUpBaby on Jun 4, 2007 6:36 PM EDT 0 recs

Kennedy/Miles compared Win Shares since 2003

According to thehardballtimes.com, Kennedy and Miles have been attributed the following win shares from their fielding since 2004:

Kennedy:
2004 - 4.9
2005 - 5.7
2006 - 5.7
2007 - 0.8

Miles:
2004 - 4.1
2005 - 2.6
2006 - 3.8
2007 - 0.7

by AndyB83 on Jun 4, 2007 10:19 PM EDT 0 recs

actually...

... since 2004.

by AndyB83 on Jun 4, 2007 10:20 PM EDT up 0 recs

Personally

I enjoyed watching Belliard more than either one of those guys. I really thought Kennedy would be a better player than he's turned out to be, coming into the easier league. I also think he'd be better if they just put him out there and let him play. Gasp, even against lefthanders.

by jillsinmo on Jun 5, 2007 7:58 AM EDT 0 recs

Kennedy at 2B

Personally, from my own completely subjective perspective, (see what I did there?) I actually think Kennedy's been a very good fielder. He doesn't have quite the cannon that Grudz did at second, but I think his arm is much better than most of the guys the Cardinals have run out there the last few years, and his range has been pretty good.

As far as Miles goes, he's not great, but he's a bench player. I don't really expect a whole lot from him. That being said, I still hope the Cards find some sort of upgrade at utility position going forward.

Acquire Rocco Baldelli!

by the red baron on Jun 5, 2007 9:13 AM EDT 0 recs

I think I've been too harsh...

... in my assessment of Kennedy thus far. However, one of the things that I do not like about Kennedy's game is the way he looks when he turns the DP. Seems like he has a tendency to take stutter steps to whichever side of the bag that the opposing runner is not sliding into in order to avoid contact. Meanwhile, the baserunner trying to beat out the throw to 1B is allowed a few more steps down the line. Wish he'd hang in there and take a little punishment to get the throw off sooner.

Maybe the times that I noticed this were isolated incidents but I will pay a little more attention on DPs to see for sure.

by AndyB83 on Jun 5, 2007 2:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

Well, Miles has performed

admirably when you consider he shouldn't be out there so much. Man, they should have just kept Grudz.....he's played well for Kansas City, and second base has kind of turned into a black hole since he left. Free Anthony Reyes...

by jillsinmo on Jun 5, 2007 2:20 PM EDT 0 recs