Edmonds opens the door for Ankiel

by bgodar on Jun 28, 2007 11:06 AM EDT

We all know the problem with bringing Rick Ankiel up. With no options left, to be sent down he'd have to clear waivers, which he wouldn't do. It made sense for him to remain in Memphis on April 1, May 1 and maybe even June 1. But as July 1 approaches, with Jim Edmonds admitting his sciatica might sideline him for the year (or more?), the time for Ankiel is now.

According to Baseball Prospectus' translations, Ankiel's current minor league numbers would translate to an MLB line of: .245/.278/.514. The on-base percentage would be among the worst of the Cards position players, while the slugging would be behind only Duncan and Pujols. His numbers also translate to 19 homers and 48 RBI. That would lead the team in HR and tie Pujols for the RBI lead.

Translations aren't a guarantee of major league production, but these aren't "fringy' numbers we're talking about here. It's also worth noting that Ankiel's splits are actually better against left-handed pitching, meaning he shouldn't be another guy who sits against every soft-tossing southpaw. Yes, this is a guy who strikes out a lot. But this is a guy with the potential for Duncan-like power AND who can play centerfield.

With Edmonds in the outfield mix, you could argue that there wouldn't be enough at-bats for Ankiel. It made sense to bring up Schumaker as a stop-gap solution. But the more it looks like Edmonds return is in doubt, the more it makes sense to get Ankiel out of Memphis. So Taguchi's having a nice season, but Ankiel's offensive potential probably rates him slightly ahead, and Rick's offense/defense combination is clearly better than Ludwick or Schumaker.

Ankiel may not be ready to start every day, but there's got to be an endgame to that "we want to get him regular at-bats" line. This isn't a 22-year-old kid, it's a 27-year-old who's spent significant time in the majors (albeit as a pitcher).

If the Cards are still making a run at the division, it makes sense to get your best players on the field. If they've decided the division has slipped too far out of reach, it probably makes even more sense to get Ankiel on a major league field and see what he's got.

0 recs | Comment 27 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Right Field

This makes some sense, but I think it would work out better to put juan in center, ank in right and dunc in left. But yeah, if edmonds is this questionable for the remainder of his contract, it's time to move up ankiel, promote rasmus to memphis and take advantage of edmonds' knowledge and experience (being a mentor to our new outfielders along with larry walker) while he moves back and forth from the DL.

by Birds on the Matt on Jun 28, 2007 11:09 AM EDT 0 recs

Agreed

I think you start rick in right. My main thinking on this is because you can get tricky rick the playing time in right, so that a couple years from now you can have a outfeild of Dunc in left, Rasmus in Center, and Tricky rick in right. That's my two cents, and I didn't get much sleep last night, sot take that in to consderation.

Save the Kipper don't make him go back out there.

by gibbyfan on Jun 29, 2007 10:03 AM EDT up 0 recs

bgodar

how did you navigate to that page via BP? I've never seen that before. It looks like you went through the statistics page but I don't see a link anywhere on their main sight. I'm really curious (and thanks for opening a new venue of time wasting for me!).

Future Redbirds

by azruavatar on Jun 28, 2007 11:17 AM EDT 0 recs

From the BP Stats page...

click on Equivalent Averages, then click Minor League EqAs and Translations. From there you can select which minor league, etc. It's far from an intuitive path.

by bgodar on Jun 28, 2007 1:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

Also a better solution than Ankiel

(and I'm not saying this because it's my soapbox) would be to utilize Juan at a defensive position where his numbers are more palatable. Put him in CF and then stick JRod in right. His translations: .229/.343/.431 good for a EQA of .270 where Ankiel's is .258 (.260 is league average).

That frees up Gooch as a defensive replacement for the corners and gets Schumaker off the roster and back to the minors.

Future Redbirds

by azruavatar on Jun 28, 2007 11:22 AM EDT 0 recs

JRod is injured

for the second time this year. He's worse than Jimmy and Rolen when it comes to health now.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jun 28, 2007 11:32 AM EDT up 0 recs

The problem with the reverse splits

is that Tony doesn't give 2 shits about them. He continues to sit Duncan despite his ability to hit for power against lefties.

Last night, for example - Lefties are hitting >.300 against him this year. Duncan sits.

Ankiel is young and left-handed. He wouldn't get the benefit of the doubt against LHP in the big leagues with Tony as the manager, just because he has had reverse splits in AAA.

by silent_bob on Jun 28, 2007 11:33 AM EDT 0 recs

Edit:

lefties are hitting >.300 against Glavine.

by silent_bob on Jun 28, 2007 11:33 AM EDT up 0 recs

How much of that

is that only the best lefties face him?

by whopperman on Jun 28, 2007 11:48 AM EDT up 0 recs

I'm not sure

there's a whole lot to be gleaned from that 100 PA sample. Or that BAa, is a good way to determine success against or quality of hitter faced. (FWIW, lefties are raking against Glavine this year.)

Historically he's about even OPSa vs. lefties which leads me to think that there's some reason that lefties fare OK against him. Repertoire or soft-tosser maybe. Mike Maroth, Steve Carlton and Ted Lilly, just to name three random LH starters, have decent to huge splits over their careers against lefties.

LH/LH matchup splits are a real thing and predictive however. Even Barry Bonds has a 100 pt OPS split, and IIRC Ted Williams has a big split.

I'd run our best hitters out there though regardless, it's not like we have a bunch of awesome RH outfielders hanging around.

by plh903 on Jun 29, 2007 5:06 AM EDT up 0 recs

Well...

I don't think Ankiel will match his translations -- big league pitchers will exploit his chasing tendencies too well.

That said, I do think he can help the Cards, and if Edmonds is going to be out for an extended period of time, I think Ankiel can fill in probably better than anybody else in the system.

But don't move Rasmus to Memphis yet, he's not ready.

by whopperman on Jun 28, 2007 11:48 AM EDT 0 recs

i still don't see the hurry

to get ankiel up here. in his role as an everyday player, ankiel has had only a few more plate appearances than colby rasmus above the class A level ---- roughly 420 P.A. for slick rick, vs ~320 for rasmus. rasmus already has better strike-zone judgment, and his isolated power is nearly as good --- .244 for rasmus, .311 for ankiel. yet few if any of us believe rasmus is ready to play every day in the big leagues; it's fairly well acknowledged that he still needs some seasoning, and rushing him could inhibit his progress.

the same holds true for ankiel --- the two players are at very similar points on the development curve, at least insofar as their "everyday-player age" is concerned.

by lboros on Jun 28, 2007 12:27 PM EDT 0 recs

Not to mention that,

considering the amount of time that he's spent injured, Ankiel has advanced through the system absurdly quickly.

by Valatan on Jun 28, 2007 12:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

I don't see the rush either

considering he probably wouldn't help this team win games THIS year. I think the fascination with him being 27 already is the driving force behind the calls to bring him up.

by silent_bob on Jun 28, 2007 12:49 PM EDT up 0 recs

Maybe that is why the Bradley rumors are there

Instead of taking away everyday at-bats for Ank, Walt is looking for a cheap stop-gap. I didn't realize J-Rod was hurt again, or he may have got the call.

When I open my eyes this whole season will be a dream...

by gforce on Jun 28, 2007 12:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

Charting Ankiel's development

is tough, because there's not really any true comps (Babe Ruth? Ha). It's a good point about the similarities between Ankiel and Rasmus, but I think there are differences that make it a sound strategy to promote Ankiel.

While Ankiel may only be 100 P.A.'s ahead as an outfielder, I don't think we can completely discount his 96 PA in the majors or his 156 AB in the minors as a pitcher. In '03, Ankiel hit .240 and slugged .400 at AA as a pitcher, so it's not as if he started from zero when he became an outfielder.

I agree with SilentBob that the fact that Ankiel's 27 does play a factor, and I think rightly so. The clock is ticking on on Ankiel's productivity in a way that it is not on Rasmus, so why not get that production at the major league level? Given his numbers and my subjective view from watching him play, I don't see what else he can do in the minors. Sure, we can hope he develops more plate discipline, but by the time that happens his physical skills are likely to be slowly deteriorating anyway.

I don't expect Ankiel to be an All-Star, and he certainly ranks below Duncan and Encarnacion right now. But there is serious UPSIDE there. Let's bring him up and see what the kid can do. Maybe he'll be legit and we'll be looking at a Duncan/Rasmus/Ankiel outfield in '09. Or, maybe he'll strike out like crazy. Either way, with a depleted outfield and 10.5 games out of the worst division in baseball, now is the perfect time to find out.

by bgodar on Jun 28, 2007 1:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

He'll strike out like crazy

but the power is absolutely legit.

by whopperman on Jun 28, 2007 1:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

Sounds like...

Our version of this guy?

Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG *OPS+ +--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+ 2005 21 ATL NL 70 257 41 77 20 1 14 45 3 2 11 58 .300 .336 .549 124 2006 22 ATL NL 162 651 83 169 24 6 29 103 1 6 23 132 .260 .293 .449 89 2007 23 ATL NL 79 307 32 86 18 0 8 49 1 2 19 60 .280 .325 .417 99

by taiko on Jun 28, 2007 3:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

Also, a AAA comparison

This is Jeff Francoeur's AAA stats & equivalents.

-- Equivalents -- Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA 2004 MYR 1C 367 56 26 0 15 52 22 70 10 6 5.2 .293 .346 .506 .265 .275 .314 .477 .265 2004 GRN AA 77 8 2 0 3 9 0 14 1 0 4.7 .197 .208 .342 -.311 .171 .182 .263 .158 2005 MIS AA 367 40 28 2 13 62 21 76 13 4 5.4 .275 .322 .487 .116 .261 .297 .466 .259

Note also the similar number of PAs above class A to where Ankiel is now. Francouer was called up to an Atlanta team that ended up finishing first in the NL East for the last time but was clearly a team in transition. He filled a patchwork outfield that was manned in the corners by the likes of Ryan Langerhans, Kelly Johnson, and almost half a season of Brian Jordan.

Except for the calendar age, seems a pretty good comparable.

by taiko on Jun 28, 2007 3:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

Context

Francoeur was called up and played his first game on July 7th 2005. He played in every game the rest of the way. The Braves' record at the time was 47-37, four games behind the Nationals (!), at a time when every team in the NL East was at or above .500. The team finished 90-72, two games ahead of Philly.

Definitely a more pressure-packed situation than the one the Cards are in today.

by taiko on Jun 28, 2007 3:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

Thanks taiko

I was trying to find a good comp, and Francoeur seems to fit the bill.

by bgodar on Jun 28, 2007 4:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

Going with Bgodar on this one.

I understand the reasoning behind leaving him in triple A, i.e. the obvious deficiencies in his game, low number of plate appearances, etc. However, in this particular case, I think bringing him up relatively soon may be the way to go. The point, to me, isn't so much that he's 27 years old, it has more to do with his contract status. There is no way for the Cardinals to hold on to him past this year, other than just signing him again. That sounds strange when I reread that sentence. What I mean is that you're not dealing with a guy who's arb eligible, or has options, or anything else. He's not under the team's control. I think the team needs to get a good look at what he can do, first hand, in the majors. Then they can make a decision as to what they really want to do with Ankiel. Resigning him to minor league deals one year at a time, waiting to see if he develops, is becoming burdensome for the organisation, I think. Get him up here, take a good, long look, and then you'll really know. Hell, if he needs a little more time, just give him another minor league deal next season. At least you would know for sure then that he's a part of the plans.

As for the argument that he might struggle, get discouraged, and lose what progress he's made, seriously? This is Rick Ankiel we're talking about. He was supposed to be Sandy Koufax. Two years later he literally couldn't hit the broadside of a barn. (He was once ordered to by Ozzie Guillen and missed.) Saying Rick Ankiel would lose confidence by struggling at the plate is like worrying that Lance Armstrong would get depressed over having mono. He's already been through worse. I really doubt that, as far as he's come, Rick would just lose it if he didn't do well in 300 major league ABs.

From what I understand, Rick plays a nice outfield. Bring him up, plug him in, see what he does. You can start trying to move Juan, and just look at this year as a necessary growing pain. I think I've finally managed to make my peace with that, and the organisation would probably be better off to do the same.

I hate so much about the way that you choose to be.

by the red baron on Jun 28, 2007 3:16 PM EDT 0 recs

Yeah, after everything Ankiel has been

through, I can't imagine that struggling as a hitter would cause him to go into a tailspin. What's he going to do, start standing backwards in the batter's box? Swing the bat upside down? Throw his relay throws into BigMac land?

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jun 28, 2007 3:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

the argument isn't that he'd lose it mentally

the argument is that major-league pitchers can get a hitter into bad habits very quickly --- even a well-established, veteran hitter. but a veteran has years of good habits to fall back on; they look at tape, they work on their swing, and they re-learn those old good habits.

rick has never actually formed good habits in a certain crticial aspect of hitting (ie, plate discipline). that's what the minors are for --- learning those good habits. if he gets to the big leagues before he ever learns them, they become that much more difficult to develop properly.

or so sez me.

by lboros on Jun 28, 2007 3:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

I 100% agree with LB

Ankiel's strike zone judgement, while improving is still marginal at best for a major leaguer. If he doesn't hit up here, then we'd have to send him back down and he isn't likely to clear waivers.

The St Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champs!

by Zubin on Jun 28, 2007 4:00 PM EDT 0 recs

I posted the other day

that La Russa said on his radio show that Ankiel needs to play every day and get more ABs in order to work on his game. Bringing him up now would not beneficial to him, because, at this juncture, he wouldn't be an everyday player. Besides, if he is brought up, he would need to stay with the team, since he's out of options, or be put on waivers; and they aren't willing to do that yet.

"It's always about money; anyone who says it's not is lying."- Gene Simmons

by cardsrul on Jun 28, 2007 6:12 PM EDT 0 recs

Ankiel's contract status

Ankiel will be under team control if they put him on the 40-man roster. Of course, since he's out of options during the season Ankiel can't be on the 40-man without also being on the 25-man.

I doubt it matters that much, but Ankiel has 3 years, 152 days of service. If he's called up before September and stays up, he'll have enough service time to be a free agent after 2009. If the Cardinals wait until the end of the AAA season, he can't be a free agent until after the 2010 season.

by Rob H on Jun 28, 2007 7:33 PM EDT 0 recs