Flores vs. first batter

by salvomania on Jun 25, 2007 3:03 PM EDT

My impression is that Flores has gotten killed by the first batter he sees, and I was curious to see if the evidence bears that out.

Boy does it.

Flores was excellent the first few weeks of the season---as was the Cardinals' pitching in general---and through his first 9 appearances he was holding the opposition to a .172/.200/.207 line, largely on the strength of his performance vs. the first batter he saw: they were a combined 0-for-9, including 2 Ks and 5 infield pop-ups. Interestingly, there was only one inherited runner on base during this time, and he was stranded.

From then on, Flores has been an absolute disaster.

Since April 27, Flores has a 6.86 era and the opposition is hitting .371/.406/.551 against him. That is really, really bad. It's even worse when considering just the first batter.

Flores has come in to 26 games since April 27, and he has allowed the first batter he's faced to reach against him 14 times.

It's even uglier with runners on base: the first batter he faces when he comes in with at least one runner on has reached base 8 times in 11 opportunities---a whopping .727 on-base pctg.

Since April 27 Flores has allowed 8 of 18 inherited runners to score ON THE FIRST PLAY AFTER HE ENTERS THE GAME. That is stunningly, shockingly bad. I didn't bother figuring his overall strand rate because I was focused on the results of the first plate appearance, but it's clearly awful.

Here are Flores's overall numbers vs. the first batter he sees.

11-for-31, .355/.400/.516.
That includes his season-opening 0-for-9 run, and he's still yielding a .916 OPS on the season vs. first batters.

Since April 27, here are the numbers for Flores vs. the first batter he sees:

11-for-22, .500/.538/.727

So if it seems like every time Flores comes in, the first batter gets on base, take solace in the fact that it's really only 54% of the time.

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Bullpen Usage

This dovetails with Larry's main page post today about how Tony's use of Izzy specifically and the bullpen generally.

While Izzy's pitching the 9th inning, often in relatively comfortable conditions, Flores is often the guy on the bump in high-leverage situations. This data would seem to further support the strategy of using your best guy with the game on the line, regardless of the inning.

by bgodar on Jun 25, 2007 4:21 PM EDT reply actions

Have Skip Schumaker take BP off of him in the 'pen

before he pitches?

by Valatan on Jun 25, 2007 4:30 PM EDT reply actions

If you're trying to get

The first batter out of the way, I can understand it a bit. But the major problem is that Skip would swing at the first pitch and you'd end up with some weird delay of game penalty with the ball in the stands, Marty Mason gets ejected from the game, dogs & cats living together ... mass hysteria.

(Actually I'm not entirely sure about the "ball in the stands thing" - is Skip a first-pitch pop-up guy or a first-pitch groundout guy? I can't remember.)

Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time.

by Solanus on Jun 25, 2007 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions

here's an amazing stat

Schumaker's 2007 P/PA rate (3.7) has been higher than David Eckstein's 2007 (3.63) and over half a pitch higher than David Eckstein's career P/PA rate (3.18), and just 0.16 (one pitch per 6 at bats) lower than eckstein's P/PA as a cardinal (3.86). In 2006 Eckstein had a 3.75.

Never would I have guessed that, from watching him play, but it seems to be true.

Don't Panic!!!

by SleepyCA on Jun 25, 2007 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Skip's At-Bats

He's had a few at-bats where he worked a lot of balls foul. When he's gotten so few, that'll skew his P/PA up pretty good.

I can't blame him for swinging at the first pitch and flying out. La Russa (per TNiA) wants his pinch-hitters to go up there looking to swing at fastballs—the earlier in the count the better. Skip's taking those PH plate appearances the way La Russa wants him to.

by liam on Jun 27, 2007 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions