On Thompson and on the team's prospects

by Valatan on Jun 20, 2007 11:23 AM EDT in St. Louis Cardinals News

That was a nice start last night by Thompson. I think everyone here is happy that Kippers was the one that was demoted and not him. I was a little worried watching him as he went late into the game, however. It really seemed like he was beginning to lose the sink on his sinkerball. Against the hapless Royals offense, it didn't really seem to matter--even though he allowed a double and a run in the 7th, he managed the game, and kept on getting the groundouts and double plays that he needed (both the 6th and 7th ended on double plays). I do have some concern about whether or not he'll be able to get away with this against the Phillies or the Mets, but I guess I'll be worried about this a lot less than my previous concern about whether or not Kippersley is capable of throwing a strike when he has runners behind him on second or third.

That being said, his sinker looked better last night than I've seen it since he was originally called up. If Carp, Mulder and Okha all make the team, and WonderBrad keeps on flashing the stuff he showed last night, I can see him besting his 2005 numbers out of the `pen. He really only has one good pitch, but it has such a unique motion to it, it's really all he needs. At this point, my only concern is that he gets overexposed while he's starting in our all-injury and retreads, all the time rotation.

And this gets me to a trend that I've been seeing in the comment threads and the diaries lately. The team actually, to me, seems to be playing a lot more solidly than they were a month ago--the offense is scoring, and the overworked bullpen is holding relatively steady. The hole of the team is its starting pitching, and there is help coming in the relative short term in the form of Carp, Mulder and Okha (who starts tonight in Round Rock--I'm currently trying to figure out if I can get to that game). Percival, after that first rough outing, is looking increasingly solid, and Kip Wells has finally, FINALLY been demoted to the bullpen. After the all-star break, the pitching staff will look very, very different, and will look decidedly better. Despite all of this, I've been seeing a very harsh tone toward the team and toward Jocketty and the ownership. I just really don't understand why the negativity is hitting a peak now, rather than two months ago, when the team was truly looking hapless.

If they can get back to .500 before the all-star break, anything can happen in the second half, as the new, recharged 2007 Cardinals come back. Long ago, I tried to push Uncle Tupelo's "The Long Cut" as the thematic song for the 2006 Cardinals. In retrospect, it seemed to work out. This year, I'm hoping their slow early pace, and their (hopefully) rapid later pace will make the team's theme song be something like "Bohemian Rhapsody."

Though I refuse to love the Cardinals and then leave them to die.

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Barrett Traded

The Cubbies traded Barrett to the Padres, per ESPN and mlbtraderumors.com.

stlfan

by stlfan on Jun 20, 2007 11:26 AM EDT reply actions

okay...

This is posted on the diaries, too...oops!

stlfan

by stlfan on Jun 20, 2007 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions

Val I think

the negative tone is based on one thing:

The team must make up ground now. They have been playing through a pretty weak stretch of teams and if the Cards were going to make a move, most figured it would be in June.

Well the offense and pen have done their part, but what was the only decent part of the team in April, the starters, have fallen apart at the worst possible moment.

I think that causes a lot of the frustration.

by JMedwick on Jun 20, 2007 11:29 AM EDT reply actions

BrewCrew

I think it also has to do with the Brewers. At first they took off and we really didnt' have a chance to lead the division even with a mediocre team. Now that the Brewers are faultering, the negativity comes from a disapointment that the cardinals are not capitalizing on the opportunity to make ground on the team in first.

by billyhoyel on Jun 20, 2007 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions

Brewers

The Brewers have now won 6 of their last 7 (and are up 4-0 in the first today). They definitely faltered for a bit, but seem back on track now.

The outfield is deep and playing him straight-away and the infield is the same except first, second, third and short are playing him to pull. -- Mike Shannon

by MUTiger on Jun 20, 2007 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions

haven't seen it mentioned yet,

but every single out from Brad last night was in the infield, whether it be a grounder or infield popup. No deep flys or almost homers. The outfielders contributed to zero of Brad's outs.

by longhornscardinals on Jun 20, 2007 11:30 AM EDT reply actions

That says a lot

about how good a performance it really was.

Thanks for pointing that out to people like me who didn't catch the game.. Boxscores can't give me information like that.

by stltrav09 on Jun 20, 2007 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions

It was a great performance

But, the problem with sinkerballers like WonderBrad is that when their sinker doesn't work, they get pounded. These games are great but they don't seem to be the norm. It seems they may go through stretches where things go great, but in never seems sustainable. This is what bothers me about the whole pitch to contact theory. Unless your Carpenter or Halladay, who can induce ground balls when they want AND strike people out, you're bound to get into trouble. I just don't think your main objective with every batter should be to induce ground balls. I'm done ranting. I just want to see a Jake Peavy or two in our system instead of waiting for the one or two great games from our sinkerballers.

by Carps on Jun 20, 2007 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Yep,

a sinker ball that doesn't sink is a piece of cake.....Pound cake. He was wonderful last night, hopefully it starts a trend of the other starters trying to outdo Thompson's performance.
Kudos to Brad. No need to kick a puppy last night.

by jillsinmo on Jun 20, 2007 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions

kirkjian

tim kirkjian was on first take earlier(and they will reshow it at 11 am central) and said if he could have any pitcher all time in a must win game he would have to take bob gibson, nice praise

Pujols is the greatest Cardinal in my lifetime.

by bigcardsfan5 on Jun 20, 2007 11:38 AM EDT reply actions

Well, as far as the negative tone

The problem is Carp may or may not have been anticipated (that's till debateable), but everything else was either known or a crapshoot. The problem I have is that they had no backup plan if the starting rotation flamed out. The response seems to have been, "well, shoot, who'd have thunk?" And of course, the answer is basically everybody. No one is faulting them for not getting Jason Schmidt; they're being faulted for not having ANYBODY, even if they had a couple of five million a year guys lying around. And to say your saviors are Muldher (August, if we're lucky) and Okha (who clearly is not healthy either) is not a real confidence booster.

by knieriemd on Jun 20, 2007 11:46 AM EDT reply actions

they had a backup plan

and brad thompson was part of it --- he competed for a rotation slot in spring training, and when an opening came up he stepped into it and has performed admirably.

another part of the backup plan --- ryan franklin --- has been deemed irreplaceable in his current setup-man role, which is why they are using todd wellemeyer as a starter. but they don't have to use wellemeyer; that's by choice.

so a backup plan was in place, and to the extent dave and tony have used it, the plan is working reasonably well. it would work better if they'd do the sensible thing and put franklin in the rotation. you can always find another setup man. al reyes was supposed to be irreplaceable, but wainwright replaced him. when wainwright became the closer, he was supposed to be irreplaceable; josh kinney stepped in and replaced him. when kinney went down, franklin replaced him.

with each replacement, the performance hasn't suffered. so the notion that the bullpen will be in trouble if ryan franklin is moved out of it --- well, i just don't buy it.

by lboros on Jun 20, 2007 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Franklin is clearly a better bet to do well than

Well{s, emeyer}, but there also doesn't seem to be much indication that he'll be able to pitch well in the rotation. On some level, it might make sense to not expose him in the bullpen, keep his rate stats looking pretty decent, and then using him, and his one year contract as trade bait at the deadline. Surely some team will be looking to shore up their bullpen.

by Valatan on Jun 20, 2007 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions

i think franklin would do ok

in his last two years as a starter (2004-05) he threw quality starts in 47 percent of his outings (29 q.s. in 62 starts). jeff suppan threw quality starts in 53 percent of his outings (34 q.s. in 64 starts).

franklin's terrible won-lost record in those two years is misleading. the mariners finished last in the league in runs scored in 2004, and next to last in 2005. he pitched much better than his w-l would suggest.

by lboros on Jun 20, 2007 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe he pitched better...

than 4-16, but he still wasn't even a good pitcher in 2004 or 2005. His ERA+ for those years were 89 and 80, respectively. Safeco in '04 was an extreme pitcher's park. His FIPs those years were in the low fives. Moreover he's a flyball pitcher who strikes out even fewer guys than Soup.

Suppan on the other hand posted ERA+ from 103 to 119 from 2004-2006, his FIPs were a good half run lower, he struck out more guys and he got a lot more ground balls. Franklin might be better than the "Well" brothers, but he's a real step down from Soup, imo.

by guayzimi on Jun 20, 2007 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions

To be fair

ERA+ is already park-adjusted

by Valatan on Jun 20, 2007 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes, redundant...

just wanted to highlight that in 04 it was an extreme pitcher's park, while in 05 it played about average...

by guayzimi on Jun 20, 2007 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions

response to guayzimi

i agree he's a step down from soup, but also that he's a step up from wells / wellemeyer --- a major step up, imho.

i think you have to look at this in terms of marginal value. what's the marginal value of franklin over wells / wellemeyer in the rotation? if we just split the difference between the 2 era+ figures you cited (89 and 80) and assume that franklin would post an era+ of 84 or 85 with the cards, that's an era of roughly 4.90 --- slightly worse than looper and wainwight, slightly better than brad thompson (starts only), and vastly better than wells / wellemeyer. if we also postulate that franklin avgs the same number of innings per start that he did in seattle, that comes out to 6 innings per start --- which would be tops on the team.

i picked a guy from last year who pitched 6 inn per start at an 85 era+ and checked his WARP at baseball prospectus --- guy named jeff weaver. he was 1.7 wins above replacement for the cardinals last year in 14 starts.

i'll use that as a rough estimate of franklin's value if he goes into the rotation in place of wellemeyer or wells. probably 2.0 wins would be more accurate, because franklin could make more than 14 starts if they put him the rotation today, but just let that go.

now --- what's the marginal value of franklin over springer / flores / johnson / wellemeyer in the bullpen? let's assume the very best about ryan franklin --- let's say he keeps pitching at the same level for the rest of the year. that's a highly doubtful proposition, but just go with it. again using BP, franklin's PRAR (pitching runs above replacement) is 13 for 2007; the guy who would probably replace him, russ springer, is at 11 PRAR. that's a 2-run differential --- a mere fraction of a win. by this measure, the marginal value of franklin over looper is almost nil.

ditto if we look at WXRL (or win expectancy above replacement). franklin's is 1.5 wins so far this year; springer's is 0.9 wins. that's a difference of 0.6 wins, or about 6 runs.

just eyeballing and making some reasonable assumptions, it looks like franklin's marginal value as a starter is far greater than his marginal value as a reliever. might be as much as a full game in the standings.

he might not be suppan, but i still think he'd help the team more in the rotation than in his current role.

by lboros on Jun 20, 2007 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Backup plan

I agree with you that Thompson was the backup plan, and all things considered wasn't too bad. But that was pretty much it. If they refuse to use Franklin as a SP, then he (despite early statements to the contrary) was not part of the plan, because it's a little hard to argue he wasn't needed. Therefore, they go into the season with:

Carp: we can argue whether they knew he would need surgery at some point

Reyes: Who Tony and Dave never had confidece in, Game 1 start notwithstanding

Wainwright: no complaints, but was a reliever last year

Wells: a reclamation project, and

Looper: again, I have no complaints, but was a reliever and therefore a risk

So, with four or five question marks, and certainly four gambles, your backup plan is the Wonderbrad? And that's it? That is my complaint. Why not pursue more of the mid-to-low-tiers that were certainly out there as backup gambles? Surely some of them would have been willing to sign minor league contracts. And if true, who are you blocking in AAA? Randy Kiesler? Mike Smith?

by knieriemd on Jun 20, 2007 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions

i don't follow your logic

franklin was used and evaluated as a starting pitcher throughout spring training --- he actually started a number of games and pitched for 3 and 4 innings at a time. so under the original plan, he was envisioned as a starting pitcher.

he clearly was not envisioned as the setup man under the original plan. that role was originally supposed to go to josh kinney. after he got hurt, brad thompson had the inside track, with springer flores and johnson also in the mix, and dennis dove and kelvin jimenez as dark-horse competitors.

they only turned to franklin as a setup man at the very end, because they weren't comfortable with their other options. but since then, springer has rounded into shape (he got a lot start to spring training due to injury), and the rotation has fallen apart.

by lboros on Jun 20, 2007 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions

I think in some way

the issue that many have with the leadership of the team is this.

They refuse to put the best possible team on the field. With Reyes getting demoted, the stedfast refusal to call up J-Rod, the questionable releasing of Marrero then buying a 37 year old catcher who looks like he's going on 58 (not to dog the guy he has played well above what anyone could expect and should get plus-plus on his review) to the questionable allocation of innings to jimenez. It's as though they figure out who the best options are for a spot and then pick the "other" guy.
The apathy that we see on the field. The other night Kennedy just stuck his glove out to get a ball instead of trying to make a play (and it looked to me like Pujols noticed it) it was so bad if a 2B on my softball did that we would move him. Juan only diving for balls on Tuesdays, Thursdays and every other Sunday. Guys swinging at the first pitch after the pitcher just walked our pitcher on 4 straight (God I can't stand that.)

It's these things that at least bug me. I know we can't be the best team in baseball with Carp, Molina, Mulder and now Edmonds on the DL but we do have some players that can help us keep pace until they get back...but we aren't using them all beacause they listen to "Rock and or Roll" or they don't tuck in their shirt or what ever TLR and Walt has against Reyes, J-Rod and such. The other players I guess see this and say if management isn't trying why should we...and it shows.

by Harknights on Jun 20, 2007 11:56 AM EDT reply actions

i totally agree

with you on point 2. on point one, i agree with not demoting reyes, but i think jrod is overvalued here. he is a good hitter for average, but his pop hasnt been there since he was first called up. his defense and baserunning are also suspect, even thought he has been said to have improved on both. while skip hasnt performed well in the majors, he has been doing well at AAA, and jrod has had injury problems. when our roster is healthy, jrod is our 5th or 6th best outfielder, imo, behind edmonds, duncan, encarnacion, taguchi, and maybe spiezio. as for marrero, i think that was just bad timing on yadi's injury. i cant imagine eli liked being in AAA just waiting for an injury. but i do not know much about his departure. and hey, at least they sent jimenez back down, can't do that with kennedy. :)

"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it." ~Rogers Hornsby

by spiderman15 on Jun 20, 2007 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions

His power disappeared...

...because they completely changed his swing.

He eventually started to get it back in July and August, and he's hit some mammoth homers -- if any of you have ever been to AutoZone Park, he hit a line drive off the leftmost tent of the RF picnic pavilion. I don't think I've ever seen a ball hit like that one, and definitely not in Memphis.

by whopperman on Jun 20, 2007 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Isn't Kip

scheduled to start Sunday vs. Cole Hamels?

Or are you assuming Ohka will be pitching on Sunday not on full rest?

Quite frankly Ohka isn't good either, but I understand the move to get even something else new in there.

by bigboy1234 @ Viva El Birdos on Jun 20, 2007 12:06 PM EDT reply actions

Every source says something different

If he isn't going to be demoted now, he is going to be in the very short term.

by Valatan on Jun 20, 2007 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Thompson can pitch Sunday

on normal rest. Assuming Ohka only gets one start in AAA, there's no "need" to start Kip again.

by CardFaninVA on Jun 20, 2007 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions

You know, there has been a harsh tone

and I think some if it goes to the way Tony manages the team--it often just doesn't make sense. As bad as Wells has been, it really is cruel to let him hear from someone other than the manager that he was being pulled from the start-I'm sure he had to realize the time was coming. Would it have hurt to catch him at the door? Plus, I've been a little down since reading Ryan Adams is a drug addict. Who knew?
Anyway, I think Tony is driving the fans and the players a little crazy right now. They are not use to having their moves/lack of moves questioned by anyone--it's that arrogance thing-and they don't like it. But, I'm going to smile today because I convinced myself it's going to be a good day.

by jillsinmo on Jun 20, 2007 12:22 PM EDT reply actions

And let me add

that I have been happy with Izzy, and Miles has played the best baseball of his career. Russ Springer can throw a strike just about anytime to anyone. I'm happy that Wainer's hanging in and Thompson was able to follow a devestating start with a well-pitched gem, that for all of his troubles, Reyes has kept his mouth shut, Ludwick's ability to pinch hit is looking better and better, So has strung together several good games in a row. Ryan's play at shortstop has been a pleasant surprise, Rolen is coming around s l o w l y, but coming around, Duncan appears to have his stroke back and the bullpen has managed to stay on track for the most part. I am always harping on management's handling of Reyes, imploring them to look at what he CAN do, and build from there, instead of what he CAN'T do and punishing him for it. So, maybe we should all take a deep breath and step back and enjoy the progress that some of the players have made.......look at what they can do and at least appreciate that.

by jillsinmo on Jun 20, 2007 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions

agreed

www.royalsreview.com

by Freneau on Jun 20, 2007 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions

really?

You had no idea Ryan Adams could be a user? The question is, now that he's quit drugs & alcohol cold turkey, will the music suffer?

by ArachNerd on Jun 20, 2007 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions

right.

who would have expected it from the writer of 'the drugs not working'?

by Valatan on Jun 20, 2007 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, now......

I was being what you call sarcastic......it's been obvious for some time he was higher than high on stage, especially with falling off stage and canceling tours.....it was meant to be a joke. Guess it wasn't very funny. Drug abuse really isn't very funny.....

by jillsinmo on Jun 20, 2007 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh, and I'm thrilled

that there is anyone here who even knows you he is.......

by jillsinmo on Jun 20, 2007 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I meant to say

I'm thrilled there is anyone here WHO even knows who he is.

by jillsinmo on Jun 20, 2007 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Sarcasm...

has a hard time coming through correctly in written form... and I've been a big R.A./Whiskeytown fan for a long time! I nearly peed my pants when I read the story about him kicking the fan out of his show for requesting "Summer of 69"... Again, one more clue of the drug use!

by ArachNerd on Jun 20, 2007 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions

You are right about sarcasm coming throuh

inprint. I picked him up by accident-I was intrigued by the cover of Gold, and the store clerk said it was good, so I bought it...loved it, worked my way backwards and forwards through the catalog-everthing-solo, Whiskey Town, Cardinals-and have pre-ordered th new one. You probably know he has a few baseball references in his songs.

by jillsinmo on Jun 20, 2007 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Tina Toledo's Street Walkin' Blues

Probably my favorite song of his. Bought, but haven't listened to enough of Rock N Roll. Passing familiarity with his Whiskeytown stuff, listening to Radio Paradise.com (excellent eclectic radio website).

Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time.

by Solanus on Jun 20, 2007 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Not to continue the negativity...

but Hardball Times weighs in on Pete Kozma's swing... Let's just say they don't like what they see.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/breaking-down-the-drafts-1st-round-picks-11-20/

by guayzimi on Jun 20, 2007 12:30 PM EDT reply actions

I don't like what I see

Maybe that's just a bad swing and isn't his true swing...if it is I wonder how the scout sold that one.

"Yeah he swings like So when So is slumping."

"Great! Can we get two?!?"

by Harknights on Jun 20, 2007 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Can he swing at the first pitch like Skip?

I remember that Skip Schumaker (sp?) was one of the people that Kozma was compared to.

Saw Skip pinch hit last night, and it was the first time I'd seen him in a game since he was recalled. Dan and Al mentioned his torrid hitting in Memphis. Nothing appears to have changed though. He didn't hang around long -- first pitch swinging right to the outfielder. Hrmmm....

Either way you cut it -- he's here to be showcased as trade-bait or he's our fourth outfielder -- it ain't no good.

by sgfcards on Jun 20, 2007 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Skip

he did the same exact thing on Monday. he's seen two pitches since his recall - two pop flyballs to center.

Acquire some runs!

by madding on Jun 20, 2007 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Brisk conversation of this topic...

which includes the author of the piece at futureredbirds.com

by guayzimi on Jun 20, 2007 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions

kozma

that short, slappy swing reminds me of Eckstein's, except a little smoother.

"Left-hander, right-hander, soft thrower, power guy, fastballs away, fastballs in-- [Albert Pujols] doesn't have any holes." - Tino Martinez

by _pistol_ on Jun 20, 2007 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I watched Kozma's video before the draft

and remember remarking to myself how much better Jackson's swing was and how weird Kozma's swing was...

but the team kept saying they really like his swing and his bat...I thought I was just missing something...

by tenniseleven on Jun 20, 2007 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Well(s), let's get something straight

I have to disagree with most of the posts and the head guy on the Wells - Franklin situation. As I've noted before, Franklin has no history as an effective starter. On the other hand, he has been nothing short of spectacular as a set up guy this year. Why would you want fuck with that? The idea that a shut down run-up to Issy is a luxury is silly; wait till you see the few 5-3 leads we do have turn into 5-7.
Wells has been terrible, but there is no guarantee he'd be effective in the bullpen - a professional job he's never had. He has way better stuff than Franklin and the Cardinals owe him a bunch of money; give him 4 or 5 more starts and go from there.

by deweydell on Jun 20, 2007 12:58 PM EDT reply actions

Guys with awesome stuff and trouble in the rotatio

is the stuff that shutdown relievers are made of

by Valatan on Jun 20, 2007 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions

you're essentially hoping for a ryan dempster

But there's nothing in Wells' history that suggests that hitters only start to catch up to his stuff after seeing it a few times. He has no confidence and no control.

It's telling that in coaching him, it seems he can't have both simultaneously. Carpenter's spring training advice to Kippy was to "let go" of the fastball, stop trying to control it and let the natural movement do its stuff (quoted in Birdland)... but the result has been that hitters are all too happy to lay off of it and either wait for a fat one, or take the walk (or the plunk).

Wells is an unreformed league-leader in walks. Not bullpen material. Not major league material.

There was a telling exchange last night after the game between Mike Shannon and Mike Claiborne, where (paraphrasing)Claiborne asked "You must have had guys like this on your team, who were just struggling to find answers, what would you say to them?" ... Shannon's response was "They weren't around long enough for me to talk to."

by taiko on Jun 20, 2007 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions

There are a million examples

Ryan Dempster, Jason Isringhausen, Eric Gagne--if you have good stuff, and focus on getting command over your best pitch, and just use your second best pitch for support, then you can be a good reliever.

by Valatan on Jun 20, 2007 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions

those guys all had elite strikeout numbers

Even if you could get Wells to command his fastball, something that he has never shown an ability to do, he wouldn't necessarily become a "shutdown" reliever. He's never been an above-average guy in terms of missing bats, which makes him strictly "chuck and duck" material.

And there are also a million examples of those littered around the margins of baseball history.

by taiko on Jun 20, 2007 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Fair enough

and I'm not saying that he's going to be a shutdown reliever. All I"m saying is that he might be able to work it out in the pen and be a decent reliever. It makes more sense to me to let him try to sort things out in the bulk innings spot in the bullpen than it does to DFA him outright.

by Valatan on Jun 21, 2007 8:12 AM EDT up reply actions

apparently it worked out last night...

I'll give props where they're due. Perhaps his upside isn't "shutdown reliever," but the kind of stomach-churning effectiveness, intermixed with occasional wildness, that we used to see from Julian Tavares. That kind of pitcher has a place on a roster, for sure.

by taiko on Jun 21, 2007 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions

but deweydell

during the off-season, many people used the exact same argument you are now using to say that adam wainwright should be left in the bullpen as the setup man ---- ie, he has no track record as a starter, there's nobody who can take his place as the setup man, etc etc.

i don't hear anybody making that argument any more --- as uneven as wainwright has been as a starting pitcher, i think people recognize his value is greater as a starter than as a reliever.

as for franklin's track record as a starting pitcher --- he might be slightly below average, but would you really rather have todd wellemeyer in the rotation?

by lboros on Jun 20, 2007 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

i think its a catch22

while i would like to see franklin in the rotation, i am not sure the bullpen could handle the innings while he wait for someone to step up in his absence. maybe we can put springer there and then, with franklin and ohka in the rotation, have wells and wellemeyer take springers old role. but i am afraid the bullpen, which is already stressed under many innings, would explode waiting for the new faces to solidy their roles. im not very sure about it, but that is what i think laduncan is afriad of.

"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it." ~Rogers Hornsby

by spiderman15 on Jun 20, 2007 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions

the thing that is killing the bullpen

are todd wellemeyer and kip wells' starts --- they're getting blown off the mound early and forcing the pen to throw 4 to 6 innings a night.

by lboros on Jun 20, 2007 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

oh,

what a conundrum we have! i hate having to decide between bad and worse...

"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it." ~Rogers Hornsby

by spiderman15 on Jun 20, 2007 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

The problem may be bandwidth...

Duncan has a constantly rotation cast of twelve pitchers, of which three are doing okay - Isringhausen, Springer, and Franklin.

The rest range from baby birds learning how to fly - Wainwright, Looper - to full time migraine headaches - Wells, Wellemeyer, and Reyes. Most of the others are in the "headache" range, especially with Looper struggling and now hurt.

From a pure management standpoint, I can fully understand not wanting to create a new problem where one doesn't exist. And at this point, I'd rather he devote his energies to the Cardinals' long-term rotation needs, i.e. Reyes and Wainwright, and determining whether to cut bait on Wells.

We will not contend this season, so it seems silly to bicker about short term problems that, at best, might mean the difference between 74 and 76 wins on the season.

by taiko on Jun 20, 2007 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions

*rotating cast...

by taiko on Jun 20, 2007 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions

trade thought

i guess this post doesn't really belong here, but i don't think it's worth a diary:

dye is in his walk year and slumping along with the sox. i bet we could pry him away with cash and encarnacion or encarnacion and a C+ prospect. does anyone else agree? think either would be a good trade?

by johnstonburg on Jun 20, 2007 1:11 PM EDT reply actions

anything...

to shuttle Enc off.

by lopey986 on Jun 20, 2007 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions

My sons have a huge

man-crush on Jermaine Dye. Seems like the type of player that could fit on any team. But I think he's hurt right now.....

by jillsinmo on Jun 20, 2007 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions

He's healthy

I believe they just had to inject some stuff in his knees. They did this to him a few years ago and it finally wore off.

by Carps on Jun 20, 2007 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions

um...

i hope you aren't talking 07 when you say hopefully mulder makes it back on the team, because i really doubt he even pitches again this year. i actually really doubt he is ever effective again the way he was in the past actually.

by lopey986 on Jun 20, 2007 1:14 PM EDT reply actions

No one know what his

future holds, but I don't recall ever hearing of anyone making it back from rotator cuff surgery without sitting out a whole season. He has to learn how to pitch all over again, and there are often setbacks. He, and we, will be lucky if he's here for the beginning of next year. I am not trying to be negative; I am trying to be realistic.

by jillsinmo on Jun 20, 2007 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Mulder is more than likely done for the year

however, they continue to put out info like this:

Q: How is Mark Mulder doing on his rehab, and what date can he be expected back?- Karl Nichols, Long time Cardinal Fan

DG: Mulder continues on his lengthy and deliberate throwing program that has him not only strengthening and rehabbing his surgically repaired shoulder but also repairing and rebuilding his lapsed delivery. There is no set date for Mulder's return, but the going estimate has shifted from mid July to late July or early August depending on when they begin his rehab assignment and how many minor-league starts the Cardinals will require him to make. Chris Carpenter will be back first.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jun 20, 2007 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions

This kind of statement helps fuel the anger of the

fans-becuase fans know that it takes at least a season if not more to come back from this kind of surgery. We are not stupid--we even know that many pitchers next stop is NOT the big leagues, but back home. It is as serious as injuries get for a pitcher, and I hope for the best, but if he can get back for the start of next season, that will be great. I think Mulder has been solid in the past and I'm hopeful for the future, but even if best case scenerio happens, it isn't going to happen until next year.

by jillsinmo on Jun 20, 2007 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Exactly...

Why the attempt to get people's hopes up? I would think it would work better for them to say straight out that Mulder is probably not going to be able to contribute this year, and then if he somehow does--a miracle!! But everything I read mentions his return along with Carp, who had a much more minor problem. This is why fans are a bit meaner this year--we can see the ship floundering, but constantly get contradictory info from the staff and players. I do believe Jock, TLR, and Dunc are doing what they think is right to keep the ship afloat, but this is the first year since, what, '99? that their methods don't seem sound.

All in all, I'm still willing to give them some benefit of the doubt. They've worked hard to give us one of the best decades of Cardinal ball since the 80's, and to me that deserves a little leniency. Especially since most of the problems seem the result of an offseason of overpriced crap and injuries (not to mention death)--none of which is controllable. Of course, the "Reyes Debacle" and some other bad moves--especially how they deal with info to the fans--are controllable, so I'm not giving out a completely free pass. If everybody stays on for next year, we'll see. If things don't go much better in '08, then yes, slap the "end of an era" tag on them and wish them well elsewhere. For now, let's see how it plays out. The season may turn out better than expected in the second half--a slim shot, certainly, but still a shot.

by rockin redbird on Jun 20, 2007 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Yep, agreed.

They really should just say he's continuing his rehab, and things look good so far, however, we don't want to speculate on when he will return......

by jillsinmo on Jun 20, 2007 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Spiezio's postgame comments

Said that if they can hold thing together until Carp comes back sometime soon and Mulder comes back "maybe in September" they can put together a run. "September". Maybe. Now the guy's not a doctor or the team trainer, but he's closer to the situation than most of us.

youneverknow

by meat on Jun 20, 2007 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions

I think the increased negativity

has to with the decreased games left. The Cardinals remaining schedule:

The Good teams:
Philadelphia - 9
Mets - 4
DBacks - 7
Braves - 7
Brewers - 10
Pads - 4
Dodgers - 3

The Average
Florida - 6
Cubs - 12
Astros - 7

The Bad
Giants - 3
Reds - 9
Pirates - 10
Nats - 3

We have 44 games against good teams, 25 games against average teams and 25 games left against bad teams.

We went through a stretch here of playing really bad teams and not making up much ground.

The blessing is that we still play the Cubs and Brewers (the two teams ahead of us) 22 times. So, until we get through those games, the Cards aren't out of it. However, if the Cardinals aren't at .500 by the All-Star break or aren't within 5.5 games, I think the mountain becomes to high to climb.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jun 20, 2007 1:24 PM EDT reply actions

The Long Cut

I've been searching and you've been gone
Out looking for the shortest path to the one that you're on
And I've already seen all I wanna see
Come on, let's take the long cut
I think that's what we need

When we were younger, we were strong
We felt a lot better than the things that we'd done
Now if it's to be, if you still believe
Come on let's take the long cut
I think that's what we need
If you wanna take the long cut
We'll get there eventually

I've been searching and you've been gone
Out looking for the shortest path to the one you're on
Now if it's to be, if you still believe
Come on let's take the long cut
I think that's what we need

We've been in a deep rut
And it's been killing me
If you wanna take the long cut
We'll get there eventually

by AtlantaCard on Jun 20, 2007 1:27 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah...

Val nailed it.

Also, I love the new Wilco (surprise).

"Side with the Seeds"
"Impossible Germany"
"You are my face"
"Either way"

All in heavy rotation at Chez Meat.

youneverknow

by meat on Jun 20, 2007 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions

The reason the hate is peaking

Is because we see now that we still have a chance to win this thing and we are a couple of players short. Blaming Jocketty and ownership, however, is ignoring the injuries we've had this year.
Kip Wells, for sure, was a poor signing. There really wasn't much to pick from this year.

A walk is a waste of three pitches-Bob Gibson

by orlando card on Jun 20, 2007 1:37 PM EDT reply actions

It goes back to the Cardinals being

3-21 when Kip Wells or Anthony Reyes start. Everyone else? 28-16.

That's pretty sad right there. If Carpenter were healthy, it wouldn't have meant the end to either of those starters getting the ball. Those 2 would have stayed in the rotation anyways.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jun 20, 2007 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Wow

That's a heckuva stat.

by sdrone on Jun 20, 2007 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Not sure

about whether those two would have stayed in the rotation. If Carp was still healthy, maybe the plug would have been pulled on Wells earlier than yesterday. We'll never know for sure.

TSF

by TedSimmonsFan on Jun 20, 2007 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Kennedy slump

I hated his signing in the offseason...money wasn't bad, but the 3 yrs was scary to me. My question is, why not send this guy to Memphis tell him to suck up his pride and get things right. Could this be done?

Spare me the logic of he is a big-leaguer, or that he won't do it, or the Cardinals wouldn't want to show him up like that. The object is to win ballgames, and we have this guy locked up for three years. I think that he owes it to the team to take such an assignment and get his act together.

His slump, in my opinion and reading into TLR's comments this morning, has moved past the "he will start to come around" thinking, as he is now sitting behind Miles.

Just a thought, as I am not a huge Kennedy fan right now and would rather see him go away for awhile than on the bench, or (worse) in the lineup.

by pitchout487 on Jun 20, 2007 2:10 PM EDT reply actions

That's what a DFA is

Designated for Assignment to the minor leagues. The player can agree to it, but most often they do not and have to be traded or released within 10 days.

by sgfcards on Jun 20, 2007 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Won't happen...

unless the Cardinals want to eat the 15 million total of his contract

Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Jun 20, 2007 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions

10 total

2.5 this year, 3.5 next, 4.5 in '09.

http://www.mlb4u.com/profile.php?id=31

still sucks, but it looked like a good deal before he decided to leave his bat in LA.

Don't Panic!!!

by SleepyCA on Jun 20, 2007 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions

also

we should have significant payroll flexibility in '09, with Encarnation, edmonds and Izzy either off the books or back at a discount.

Don't Panic!!!

by SleepyCA on Jun 20, 2007 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions

15?

Wasn't it 3 yrs, 10 mil? If we are paying him 15 mil, I may shoot myself.

by pitchout487 on Jun 20, 2007 2:45 PM EDT reply actions

The cost of starting pitching

2004
Chris Carpenter
Jeff Suppan
Jason Marquis
Matt Morris
Woody Williams
Dan Haren

$ 22.67 M

2005
Chris Carpenter
Mark Mulder
Jeff Suppan
Jason Marquis
Matt Morris

$ 21.25 M

2006
Chris Carpenter
Mark Mulder
Jeff Suppan
Jason Marquis
Anthony Reyes
Sydney Ponson
Jeff Weaver

$ 24.29 M

2007
Chris Carpenter
Mark Mulder
Anthony Reyes
Adam Wainwright
Braden Looper
Kip Wells
Brad Thompson
Todd Wellemeyer

$ 24.26 M

2007 is bound to go up, due to the signing of Ohka. If he makes his way to the big league club, who knows how much he will make. Although, if they get someone to take Kippers off their hands, that number will go back down. 2007 as a whole is goofy, as Looper is being paid for being a reliever (but I included him) and Kip will be paid as a starter, even though he'll be a reliever from here on out.

Where is all the money the Cardinals are making hand over fist from 3 straight NLCS and 2 World Series going? Must be position players, because that rotation is hemorraging talent and not picking up any cost.

Barring a big signing in the off-season

2008
Chris Carpenter
Mark Mulder
Adam Wainwright
Anthony Reyes
Braden Looper
Brad Thompson

$24 M

Don't expect that rotation payroll to exceed that by much.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jun 20, 2007 3:02 PM EDT reply actions

Nice work

We complain about payroll "slotting" for the second baseman, but seeing a whole rotation captured like this is really telling. It will take a major shakeup of today's methods to bring any kind of improvement to this pitching staff, unless it comes from within.

My faith in the team reloading around Carpenter and Pujols for a run in '08 or '09 has just taken a little hit.

by taiko on Jun 20, 2007 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions

You know what makes this worse is that

Mark Mulder is being paid $5 M towards the roation this year and he'll more than likely not start a single game this year.

So, up until this point for 2007, they've only spent $19 M on starting pitching that will, ya know, actually pitch this season.

That is coming off of all those extra home games from the playoffs and merchandise sales, the constant sellouts at the new stadium, etc.

Now, I don't know WHAT they should have spent money on, it's hard to tell at this point. However, I know that when Reyes and Wells start, the Cards are 3 - 21. Anything would have been better than Wells, even if it cost them in their pocketbook.

Christ, Randy Keisler could win the Cards more games than that.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jun 20, 2007 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions

the thing that strikes me...

is that the price of quality pitching has skyrocketed over the span of the past four years, and yet our pitching "cap number," to put it inelegantly, has remained fixed. The time to recognize and address this was last season. Failing to very nearly cost us the postseason, and has surely precipitated our current malaise.

Just for argument's sake, let's compare our rotation with that of the Brewers, as small-market a team as there is in baseball:

2004:
Sheets - $2m
Capuano - $300k
Davis - $450k
Santos - $350k
Obermuller - $300k
====$3.4 million. (!!!)

--- new ownership: mark attanasio takes over ---

2005: Sheets - $6m Capuano - $340k Davis - $2m Santos - $450k Ohka - $1.8m (roughly... pitched 2/3 of season with MIL) =====
$10.5 mil

2006:
Sheets - $9.6m
Capuano - $450k
Davis - $3.2m
Bush - $350k
Ohka - $4.5m
=====
$18 mil

2007:
Sheets - $11.1m
Capuano/Gallardo - $3.5m
Suppan - $6.25m
Bush - $450k
Vargas - $2.5m
======
$23 mil

And their salary commitments to Sheets, Capuano, and Suppan only get higher in the years to come. It's very clear that they knew they had to break hard habits, and spend serious money to improve their pitching to something better than league average, in order to contend.

I think a lot of the acrimony about "insane" contracts like that given to Suppan just don't take the new economics of baseball into account, with new revenues streaming in from online and other media, as well as all the ticket price hikes that fans all over have been subject to. Teams are rolling in money, and those that spent like it this past offseason are reaping the few rewards that were there to be gotten.

by taiko on Jun 20, 2007 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Since last years ASG

or the unofficial '2nd half of the season'

Albert Pujols
141 Games
533 ABs
97 Runs
36 2Bs
36 HRs
107 RBI
.325/.410/.595

Chris Duncan
125 Games
421 ABs
85 Runs
20 2Bs
32 HRs
67 RBIs
.280/.355/.565

Albert has only hit 4 more HRs than Chris since last years All-Star Game. That has involved Chris not starting many games, either. He has only started 102 during that stretch while Pujols has started 139.

Here is to the continued success of Chris Duncan!

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jun 20, 2007 3:17 PM EDT reply actions

Some other 'notables' to compare

Adam Dunn
137 Starts
496 ABs
83 Runs
22 2Bs
31 HRs
78 RBIs
.248/.359/.488

Alfonso Soriano
132 Starts
552 ABs
100 Runs
39 2Bs
30 HRs
63 RBIs
.288/.357/.543

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jun 20, 2007 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions

that adam dunn

comparison is quite interesting. does he have similary lhp/rhp splits to duncan?

"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it." ~Rogers Hornsby

by spiderman15 on Jun 20, 2007 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions

This season

vs LHP

Player TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO OBP SLG AVG A Dunn CIN 44 89 11 21 5 1 3 11 37 9 37 .320 .416 .236 Duncan STL 30 48 6 10 3 0 1 5 16 1 19 .240 .333 .208

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jun 20, 2007 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions

thanks

wow, that obp difference is glaring. if dunc can improve against those lhps, he is gonna be a true monster.

"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it." ~Rogers Hornsby

by spiderman15 on Jun 20, 2007 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Looks like Duncan got traded to Boston

"I think the best is ahead for Chris this season," Cardinals manager Tony La Russa told the team's official Web site.

by templetown on Jun 20, 2007 3:30 PM EDT reply actions

that is

a sick sense of humor you got there. :)

"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it." ~Rogers Hornsby

by spiderman15 on Jun 20, 2007 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions

The thought of Wellemeyer to Wells to Cate...

is making me sick. Seriously, Dunc has been the Cards offensive leader for a year now. Glad we didn't trade him

by templetown on Jun 20, 2007 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions

stop it man

I took you seriously and almost lost my lunch...
obviously I need more caffeine...

Just remember -- if the world didn't suck, we would all fall off

by RosevilleRedbird on Jun 20, 2007 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Brewers game

Brewers run Zito in 4 innings. Put 6 runs on the board and look to be ailing.

In the Top of the 6th, the Giants load the bases and the OTHER Molina hits a grand slam.

They then proceed to walk the next two batters and Bochey uses Bonds with 2 on. Bonds hits a single into RF, which is actually to where the 2nd basemen is standing.

Ricky Weeks then throws the ball away trying to get Bonds at first and the runner from 2nd scores. The runner from first tries to go first to home and is gunned out at the plate (making the 2nd out of the inning).

The next batter, with Bonds at 2nd hits a bouncer up the middle that Craig Councell (the SS replacing injured JJ Hardy) gets to but makes a late throw that is 2 steps behind the speedy batter.

This is where the fun begins. The umpire raises both arms to say 'safe' and then punches Dave Roberts out. It wasn't even close, he was safe by 2 steps.

The inning ends. The Giants should have tied the game up if the runner hadn't tried to score from first and the inning should still be going with runners on the corners and 1 out has the umpire removed head from anus.

Instead, the Brewers are clinging to a 6-5 lead.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jun 20, 2007 4:06 PM EDT reply actions

beautiful

just beautiful

"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it." ~Rogers Hornsby

by spiderman15 on Jun 20, 2007 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Umpiring ...

I have seen some Really bad umpiring this season overall...the other night in the Angels come back win over the 'Stro's, the home plate ump makes a terrible call on a John Lackey pitch that sure looked like a strike, Lackey yells out in anger, and this ump is out from behind the plate in a half a second, and ready to confront him with his mask off and dandruff up.... I seem to remember the umps being a hell of a lot more patient and tolerant of emotion from players on close calls..now they all seem to want to get into their faces as fast as possible.

by Timbo02 on Jun 20, 2007 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions

The Sox Bullpen REALLY sucks

They just brought in their only reliable guy from the pen (Jenks) with no outs in the 8th and he gave up a 3 run bomb. All this after Garland threw 7 innings, giving up only 1 run.

They are now down 4-3 to the Marlins, despite out hitting them 9-4.

We CAN get Buehrle (or Dye as someone above mentioned) for bullpen help!!!!

by stltrav09 on Jun 20, 2007 4:26 PM EDT reply actions

Since I have Jenks...

on my fantasy team...hearing this causes me great distress

by Timbo02 on Jun 20, 2007 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions

If it helps,

only 1 of his runs were earned. He came in with 2 runners on and gave up a bomb to the first batter he faced.

by stltrav09 on Jun 20, 2007 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions

only slightly better

on the ERA side of things, it's the blown save and the loss he'll get hung with for relinquishing the lead.

TSF

by TedSimmonsFan on Jun 20, 2007 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions

I have Jenks too.

I also have Garland. You get no sympathy from me.

by Stanfan6 on Jun 20, 2007 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Larry, can you bump this diary again

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/story/2007/6/7/151359/9622

Update on Carps BP session in it.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jun 20, 2007 5:46 PM EDT reply actions

Lineup

Taguchi 8
Miles 6
Pujols 3
Spiezio 9
Rolen 5
Duncan 7
Kennedy 4
Stinnett 2
Wellemeyer

Kennedy must have found his way out of the doghouse for one night.

I'm guessing that with Edmonds on the DL, Ludwick is our 'power bat' on the bench guy?

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jun 20, 2007 5:48 PM EDT reply actions

Have they said anything

about David Eckstein's injury? Is anyone else concerned about how much time he's spent on the DL the last year? Do they re-sign him, or let him walk? One thing I hope they do is take a good long look at Ryan there because he seems to be the one closest to ready......

by jillsinmo on Jun 20, 2007 6:00 PM EDT reply actions

Let him walk

or let him take a Kennedy sized contract. Not 3 years, maybe 2 for $10 M. Otherwise, let him try to find some other team looking for an undersized SS with back problems.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jun 20, 2007 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Here Here...

Love Eck and appreciate what he has contributed to the team and Cardinals baseball history...but I really would love to find a stud to play SS for the Cards in the coming years.. .

by Timbo02 on Jun 20, 2007 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions