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Notable Cardinals after 28 starts

One thing to keep in mind when judging Reyes is that he's only started 28 regular season games. Is this a sufficient number to start making conclusions about his likely future? To help answer that I thought I'd look at what other notable Cardinal hurlers did in there first 28 starts:

Star-divide

<pre>
Pitcher        IP         Hits/9    HR/9    BB/9      K/9        ERA
Reyes       147          8.8        1.5        3.4       7.3        5.45
Benes       161.2       9.5        1.3        3.9       6.5        5.40
Haren        148.1     10.3       1.1        3.5       6.3        5.28
Ankiel        151.1      7.7        1.1        5.1      10.0       4.16
Gibson       186         9.2        0.6       4.7       6.6        3.97
Magrane    180.1      8.4        0.4        3.1       5.3        3.34
Morris        179.1      8.5        0.5        2.9       6.3        2.91
</pre>

This just reinforces what we already knew: Reyes' peripherals are quite good, but he gives up too many long balls and, while not outlined here, he crumbles with men on base.

What also jumps out from this data is that all of these pitchers had very different career tracks. Gibby and Haren obviously had slow starts to their careers but picked up steam later. Benes went down with an arm injury and never came back. Morris also went down, but came back as a somewhat different pitcher. Ankiel is a unique case. Magrane was a Mark Mulder type with Mulder's career track.

Reyes' K to BB rate is the best on the board, and his hit rate is good. Obviously he needs to work on keeping his fastball down and off the middle of the plate, but as this data shows, almost all of these eventually good (or great) pitchers were unfinished products after 28 starts.

0 recs | Comment 11 comments

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nice post guayzimi
there's something similar up at aaron gleeman's site regarding young minnesota twins pitcher scott baker ---

http://www.aarongleeman.com/2007_06_17_baseballblog_archive.html#6119402526832281926

like reyes, baker has a great minor-league track record with outstanding k/9 and bb/9 numbers. he's trying to break in with a perrenial contender, and so far it hasn't taken. very, very similar cases.

lotta these stories out there. now that reyes knows he's going to be out there every 5th day, maybe he'll just relax and it will click for him. i hope so.

by lboros on Jun 19, 2007 1:08 PM EDT   0 recs

Yeah...
I saw that... Kind of gave me the idea. He leaves Santana, Liriano, and Blyleven out of his comparison. He cherry picks. Which I suppose is ok since no one will mistake Baker for Liriano with or without the numbers.

Reyes on the other hand matches up in some respects with anyone. His problems seem very clear cut. He's terrible w/RISP. Whether it's nerves, or a problem with pitching out of the stretch, I don't know. But it certainly seems solvable... much easier to solve than, say, not being able to throw any quality pitches.

by guayzimi on Jun 19, 2007 1:17 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

i think he's doing a lot of things right
and a few things wrong. if he can right those few wrongs, he'll be a good pitcher.

by lboros on Jun 19, 2007 1:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Which Benes are you talking about
Andy or Alan? they both injured their arms right? good post. ;D
That's what she said

by kyle man on Jun 19, 2007 1:32 PM EDT   0 recs

magrane vs mulder... ouch
I just checked out Magrane's "career path" - not too pretty. Completely ineffective by age 28, and out of baseball after the age of 31.

I'm not familiar with the story of Magrane. Other than their left-handedness and number of innings thrown at an early age, are there any similarities between the two in terms of style of pitcher, or type of injury?

by taiko on Jun 19, 2007 1:38 PM EDT   0 recs

Well, now that
gives me some hope that he'll figure it out.  I keep harping on Reyes, because I think he's something special.....and it baffles me that they want to give up on him because he can't throw a sinker....teach him another pitch...figure out what he can do and go from there.  It's not like there's much out there anyway....and I just don't think this organization can take the risk of another Dan Haren.  It is true he may never develop, but you have to ride it out while the young ones adjust because it takes time.  Except if your Justin Verlander......

by jillsinmo on Jun 19, 2007 1:46 PM EDT   0 recs

What was Gibby's velocity
I know that radar guns weren't used in the day and it was very difficult to tell velocity, but wasn't it widely believed that Gibby for most of his career could dial it up to 97 to 98 mph?

That helps his ceiling be higher.  For Reyes, he isn't so lucky.  He's already had a history of arm trouble, coupled with dangerous mechanics.

I hope Reyes turns into Gibby or Haren, heck..I'd take a young Matt Morris.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jun 19, 2007 2:06 PM EDT   0 recs

ceiling
has never been Reyes's problem, his ceiling was being talked up as number one in the rotation since his minor league debut. It might not have been as high as gibson's--I have no idea what he was thought of as, coming up--but Reyes isn't some no-stuff non-prospect like Trey Hearne who just put up good numbers in the minors.

by DanUpBaby on Jun 20, 2007 6:43 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Another comparison
I'm not saying Reyes will ever be this good but here are Greg Maddux's number his first full year as a starter.  Many pitchers struggle in their first year or so.

IP    Hits/9   HR/9    BB/9    K/9     ERA

155   10.5     1.0     4.29    5.84    5.61

by NCSaluki on Jun 19, 2007 2:10 PM EDT   0 recs

You beat me to it.
I wonder how many here would have complained that he walked too many and didn't have good enough stuff to get hitters out.

by DriverZn on Jun 19, 2007 4:48 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

NCSaluki...
... go Dawgs!

i saw Randal Falker on campus today.

by kindred on Jun 19, 2007 11:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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