Matt Leach on Wells and what about Woody Williams?

by madding on Jun 11, 2007 9:31 PM EDT

in Matthew Leach's mailbag today, he said the following about Kip Wells:

...the Cardinals need Wells. They need him to get right, because he's demonstrated that he's able to be a well-above-average big-league starter. The Cards must exhaust every single possibility before they give up on Wells, because if he does get straightened out, he can be a major asset to this team.

I'm sorry, I just don't see it. has he ever been "well-above-average"? His career totals read "average" all across the board, maybe even below average in some respects (the teams he's played for probably contribute somewhat to that.) I'm considering boycotting any games that he pitches in even though I shelled out my $160 to get Extra Innings this year.

so then my thoughts turn to Woody, as his ERA creeps up towards 6.00. how long does he have left in Houston? is he done? am I just suffering from a bit of "well, he was good for us... kinda..." Jeff Weaver Syndrome?

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decidely taupe-like averagosity...

Kip Wells is not "above average." He is decidely average, and methinks we got suckered on the "he always had potential, was just on a bad team" horse puckey.

As to Woody, I've always liked him, but that dog don't hunt anymore.

Good pitching will beat good hitting any time, and vice versa. ~Bob Veale, 1966

by bukowski on Jun 11, 2007 10:20 PM EDT reply actions

What.....

about woody? Seriously though?

I think he's been done with for a few years now. Sorry.

by JxMetal on Jun 11, 2007 10:24 PM EDT reply actions

maybe so

but have you seen who we have in our rotation these days?

Acquire some runs!

by madding on Jun 11, 2007 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes

and can you tell me how he helps it out?

by JxMetal on Jun 12, 2007 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions

Well above average

Well I think Leach is correct, but I also think most pitchers could be "well-above-average big-league starters," on their best days at least. Then again, I though Marquis was going to compete for the Cy Young last year.

by Zubin on Jun 12, 2007 12:29 AM EDT reply actions

Wells is a lost cause to me

and every game he pitches, I automatically chalk up as a loss.

What I'm more concerned about is Wainwright. He needs to get that ERA below 4.00 and get that k-rate up to about 7 a start. I'd like to see the kid win 15 games, get 180+ Ks and about 32 starts.

He can do it, but he has to continue this recent turnaround.

The lack of strikeouts last outing worries me a bit. That, and the homerun outburst.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jun 12, 2007 1:17 AM EDT reply actions

Exactly...

Guys like Wainer and Thompson and Reyes (if it's ever possible to get over the politics of his situation) are the guys we need to support. Wells was/is a one-year rental scrapheap project that is not working out. It's a shame his rental is about 3 million more than the Brass is probably willing to toss, but the guy has never been more than average, and I don't see him meeting even that mediocre goal this season. And Woody? Sheesh, that's just what we need--another old vet who can't cut the mustard. I liked Woody for years, but he's done. If we're seriously considering old vets we've let go, what about MattyMo--at least he seems to having a good first half. But we know already know it probably won't last. Time to go with the young guys and let the chips fall this year.

by rockin redbird on Jun 12, 2007 3:30 AM EDT up reply actions

I'd consider his 2003 season to be well above avg

But yeah, since then, he's been increasingly disastrous.

by Valatan on Jun 12, 2007 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions

True...

I was wrong about that. But I do believe whatever he had that year or two is, sadly, long gone. Hope I'm wrong there too, and will gladly eat a giant crow sandwich if he turns himself around, but all signs point to a guy whose chances of even getting back to average are extremely low and still fading with every start. Dammit.

by rockin redbird on Jun 12, 2007 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions

woody

woody will always be one of my favorites but he is done. but i would rather have him then to have wells. woody competes and wells is a loser.hopefully the ownership will come to their scences and let this guy go. by the middle of august we should have
carp
mulder
wainwright
looper
thompson.

that would be good but hopefully they will reach into their pockets and use some of this saved money and bring in a buerhle or somebody. they can win this divison if they will just make a couple improvements

HURRY BACK CARP AND MULDER

by LaRussa4President on Jun 12, 2007 5:33 AM EDT reply actions

woody

Why would any team in it's right mind bring in a creaky Woody Williams when said team has Anthony Reyes cooling his heals in Memphis? Only an extremely stubborn manager / pitching coach tandem would do such an unreasonable thing on "principle" (which is code for "my way or the highway" which is code for "I always do things one way because of past success no matter the current stupidity of it").

by jjray on Jun 12, 2007 8:28 AM EDT reply actions

Well,

Woody is a fine fellow, but his best days are way behind him. I absolutely agree about Reyes-he should be up here. He has mastered AAA-there is nothing left for him to learn there. I will never ever ever understand why they can't see that what they have asked him to do is destroying him as a valuable pitcher. When he came up he had a great fastball, a great change up and a passable curve. What he can't do is throw that 2 seam fastball, and they have punished him for it. I agree that he needs another pitch-but for the life of me, I'll never understand why they want to take away his BEST weapon by forcing something he obviously can't throw. Look at the handfull of pitchers that have come through our system--we are not very good at developing/recognizing pitching talent--and here comes Anthony and all that LaDunc can do is try to make him into something he CAN'T be. I will be glad to see LaDunc go-I really want to see a manager and pitching coach who are DELIGHTED to be presented with young talent, and that SMILE once in awhile......Oh, yeah, it would also be nice if they could admit they are wrong, at least once in awhile. You really have to question the judgement of management that sees more upside in Wells and Wellemeyer than Reyes. You really do.

by jillsinmo on Jun 12, 2007 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Exactly

Besides, Woody is a flyball pitcher who pitches up in the zone with a 4 seam fastball...wait, who else does that?

How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Jun 12, 2007 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions

the whole point I was trying to make

was that I'd personally rather have a well past his prime junkballer than Wells, the walking disaster who brings failure along with him whereever he goes. and that's sad, so something really needs to be done.

Acquire some runs!

by madding on Jun 12, 2007 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I partially agree with Leach

He was a very good pitcher in 2002 and 2003, posting well below league average ERAs of 3.5 and 3.3.

If Duncan can get Wells to adopt a consistent strategy and Wells has any luck/skill at utilizing that strategy, he could return to being that pitcher.

If he can't, when Mulder and Carpenter get back, he's gotta be gone.

But for the current situation, who would you plug in his rotation spot? Reyes isn't going to be back up yet unless it's dire emergency(which maybe cutting Wells would fill that, maybe not though), we've already plugged two relievers in the rotation mid-season, not even including Looper.

Cutting Wells right now doesn't significantly improve this team right now, but could potentially make it worse.

Although one option Danup brought up on his blog...

"The Newest Redbird, Filed under: Troy Percival ... Good luck in the rotation!"

by mtalken on Jun 12, 2007 9:01 AM EDT reply actions

Dead on...

About Well's 02-03 seasons. HIs aggregate lines are below for those years (would look a lot better in a table). He pitched nearly 200 innings both years, and had double digit wins for horrible Pirates teams.

Still I can't see him lasting past June with continued poor performance.

SEASON TEAM W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR HBP BB SO

2002 Pittsburgh Pirates 12 14 3.58 33 33 1 1 0 0 198.1 197 92 79 21 7 71 134
2003 Pittsburgh Pirates 10 9 3.28 31 31 1 0 0 0 197.1 171 77 72 24 7 76 147

by cardzfanbub on Jun 12, 2007 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions

Kip Wells vs Gil Meche

Just from looking at career stats, these are two similar gambles as reclamation projects - both had their best seasons four years ago, and have career averages just under league average. But perhaps the Royals knew something that we don't - they committed $55 million to Meche, and are getting decent results (3.16 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, with just under 7 K/9) , whereas we committed $51 million less to Wells, and aren't getting squat.

And speaking of Kip Wells' wasted potential... the next time anyone slams Duncan for not developing young pitching, look at the PIrates' record over the past decade or so. It's no wonder they haven't even sniffed a .500 record in that time.

by taiko on Jun 12, 2007 9:35 AM EDT reply actions

Defending myself

To Madding, Bukowski et al --

In 2002, Wells had an ERA+ of 121 in 198 1/3 innings. In 2003, he had an ERA+ of 129 in 197 1/3 innings. He was 23rd in the NL in pitching VORP in 2002 and 10th in 2003.

I consider that a well above average pitcher over two full seasons, and it's why I wrote what I did. I wasn't writing about looking good on one particular day. For two full seasons, Wells was a very good pitcher. A great one? No. But he's demonstrated an ability to pitch as a starter at a level above most of what the rest of these guys have done.

He's not there now, but that wasn't the point. I think at the end of the year Wainwright will be the Cards best starter, but that's not the point either. The point of this exchange is, was Wells ever a significantly above average Major League starter? And my by reckoning, he most certainly was.

Thanks.

-Matthew (not Matt).

Any comments, opinions, or observations I post here are mine and mine alone. They should not be taken as any sort of statement on behalf of my employer.

by MatthewHLeach on Jun 12, 2007 11:27 AM EDT reply actions

Ok...

...I'll buy that he was above the average for two years...and believe me, I'd love to see him succeed - because that would mean the team is succeeding.

However, I'm not sold on the idea that he may be able to regain that level ...

We can't put much of our hopes in the 2nd week in June on a pitcher who may or may not get to the level he was at 4 years ago...management made a decision, and right or wrong, it's not panning out.

And I agree with you that at the end of the season Wainwright will be the best Cardinals pitcher...

Good pitching will beat good hitting any time, and vice versa. ~Bob Veale, 1966

by bukowski on Jun 12, 2007 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions

What does the J stand for, Homer

sorry, had to do it.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jun 13, 2007 2:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Wells+

I did consider his two "good years" while making the statement that I made, but I still have felt like Wells circa 2002/03 was still never someone that was a #1 or #2 starter type. I guess it would have helped a lot more, reputationwise, if he pitched for the Mets or the Red Sox or some such team. I do see it in the stats, though. I guess this just feels like one of the Cards' most frustrating rotation acquisitions in a decade or more. it's the type of thing that would have settled a lot better if he was just a candidate for the 5th spot (a la Ponson) as the Kip Wells Experiment rather than rolling the dice and hoping he fits in as the #2 starter or whatever.

apologies for the name-shortening. I've seen it elsewhere, I believe, so I just assumed.

I'm likewise optimistic about Wainwright. it still feels like he's adjusting to being a major league starter, but when he's able to throw his big curveball it's just jaw-dropping.

Acquire some runs!

by madding on Jun 13, 2007 6:47 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't know what to think about Wells......

just glanced at my BP and his career looks like he's been a little bit worse each year. He may have topped out in 02-03. I never thought of it as a great signing, just as okay, maybe he's worth a shot. They really missed the boat on this one.....now if they weren't so arrogant, they'd admit they made a mistake-because this one appears to be a doozy.....

by jillsinmo on Jun 12, 2007 1:19 PM EDT reply actions

a relatively low dollar deal

on a still-young pitcher that had shown flashes of being a good mlb starter, and who, despite still having good stuff, struggled for a couple of years? Mistake, sure. Doozy, though?

by Valatan on Jun 12, 2007 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe I'm being too harsh.......

but counting on him to step up after Carpenter went down, was perhaps wishful thinking. His stats were trending down, and have been for some time. I think their last season free agent signings-Wells, Kennedy, Wilson have done more harm then good. I really feel that they have lost the ability to evaluate talent--both on the market and among the young players. And we know how LaDunc feels about non veterans. Young player=can't handle.

by jillsinmo on Jun 12, 2007 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh, and they really shouldn't put to much

hope on Mulder being back this year, or maybe ever. The mound is littered with torn rotater cuff pitchers who were never able to make it back. I wish him the best-he's was a decent pitcher and seems to be a decent fellow, but this kind of injury requires baby steps if there's ever a hope in his returning. I hope he does make it back, but I think it's foolish to count on it, especially for this year.

by jillsinmo on Jun 12, 2007 1:23 PM EDT reply actions

Yep

This is what scares me every time I read "When Mulder returns to form..." There is no guarantee Mulder will ever return to form. We'll be exceptionally lucky if he returns close to form by next season, but this year--that would be a miracle of sorts. I'm of course keeping my fingers crossed, but he could just as likely be pretty much done. This is why all the Buehrle talk is so interesting. Having a top of the rotation of Carp and Buehrle would be formidible. Having a top of the rotation of Carp, Buehrle, and a healthy, returned-to-form Mulder (should that occur) would be absolutely nuts.

by rockin redbird on Jun 12, 2007 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions

agree

i think we got a good chance to get buehrle. it sounds like he would like to play in stl and i have faith in jockety gettin the job done. he would be nice to have, considerin mulder is absolutely no guarantee when he gets back. if we did happen to have those three in their regular form in '08, we would proably go deep in the playoffs.

10.27.06..greatest day of my life

by steveo61086 on Jun 12, 2007 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I would like to think that we could get

Buehrle, but he's going to get Zito money. Any free agent pitcher, especially a good one who happens to be a lefthander, is going to get a contract that is huge. I just can't see the Cardinals making that kind of commitment to anyone. They are always this close to signing whatever guy they say they're after, and they always just miss out by just that much.....I still think that the Sox are going to end up re signing him. Having said all that, I'd love to see him here. I just don't think it's going to happen.

by jillsinmo on Jun 12, 2007 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions

free-agent pitchers

part of me hopes that the lackluster starts this year by Zito and especially Jason Schmidt will make teams a bit more cautious about throwing mobs of dollars out there for next year's free agent pitching crop. whether that means the Cardinals being able to afford more competitive offers for these pitchers or that they just continue to pass on these guys... either way sounds good to me. that being said, I wouldn't mind seeing Buehrle in a Cardinal uniform if it worked out that way.

Acquire some runs!

by madding on Jun 12, 2007 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions