oh, crap

by lboros on May 31, 2007 8:49 AM EDT in News Comment 118 comments

if you haven't read the long profile of tony la russa at si.com, it's a very good read --- and especially interesting in light of the current dynamics of the cardinal organization. by way of commentary, i'll just pimp one of my old VEB posts, written after la russa passed his managerial idol, sparky anderson, on the all-time wins list:

as a manager ages, he naturally comes to be seen as dated, an old fossil whom the game has passed by. in 1984 anderson was viewed as a dottering old ignoramus, completely clueless about the emerging new "science" of baseball, sabermetrics -- then in its nascence, understood only by earl weaver and the bill james readership. today sabermetrics has reached an even wider audience thanks to moneyball, and la russa -- whom james back in 1984 considered a cutting-edge manager who "got" sabermetrics -- is now positioned as a hopelessly clueless old-schooler, a representative of the entrenched old order that billy beane, theo epstein et al are in the process of toppling . . . in truth, la russa represents one of the few baseball principles that all generations -- pre-sabr, post-james, post-moneyball, whatever -- can agree upon: the more games a guy manages, the stupider he gets.

ol' tony looked smart enough last night; nothing like 8 runs offense to burnish a guy's mensa credentials. i was at the game, first time i'd laid eyes on the ballclub in person all season; if i didn't know any better, i'd say they haven't lost a whit of their 2004-05 mojo. they swaggered, they slugged, they piled up baserunners; they turned a sweet 3-6-1 double play and cut off a 7th-inning rally with a very good outfield catch; and they got a little bit lucky when brad hawpe's lonnnnnnng high fly fell a few centimeters short of the right-field wall in the 8th inning. the momentum really shifted when the guy sitting behind me, a rockies fan, decided to go to the john after the last out of the 4th inning. he must have been taking a dump, because it took him four batters to get back to our section --- and those batters went single, single, homer, homer. when this poor fellow got back, disburthened, his buddy --- a cardinal fan --- hollered "go back to the bathroom!" at him very loudly, to the point that heads were turning for several rows in front of us.

if it were the only game i'd seen this year, i would guess st louis' record stood at 31-19 instead of 21-29. even as it stands, the cards are now tied for second place in the loss column --- which, in the supremely bad nl central, is the column that tells it all --- and just 5 games out of first place on that basis. their 5-5 record over the last 10 games constitutes a hot streak in this laughable division. . . . 83 wins just might do it again, folks. and the way things have gone for st louis these first two months, 83 wins would be a hell of an achievement.

wellemeyer throws it very hard --- harder than reyes, but with a lot less command. he got hit harder than reyes typically does --- two homers, two line drives ripped back through the box --- and posted a line slightly worse than anthony's on a typical day:

	IP	H	BB	SO	HR
wellemeyer 5/30	5	7	1	3	2
reyes '07 avg	5.1	5	2	4	1

8 runs of support will turn a so-so outing into a good one pretty fast. i'm not knocking wellmeyer's 5-inning, 3-run effort --- for a guy making his first big-league start, it was good enough --- but reyes had 5 outings this year in which he pitched at least as well (ie, at least 5 innings, and no more than 3 runs), and his record in those games was 0-4. he didn't get 8 runs of support in those 5 games combined; hell, the cards scored nearly as many runs for wellemeyer last night during one rockie fan's crap (4) as they did for reyes in those 5 entire starts (5). . . . . wellemeyer knocked in the 5th run that inning and looked pretty good doing it. he may not have pitched any better than reyes last night, but he definitely hit better.

i agree with this observation from danup: "Wellemeyer pitched exactly as Reyes must. Wellemeyer used his mid-90s fastball everywhere in the zone, and got some swinging strikes up around hitters' eyes . . ." after reyes' last start, i did a little additional number-crunching to follow up my post last week about reyes' pitch selection, focusing just on the location of reyes' fastball; i had intended to post it in advance of reyes' next start, which will now be taking place at memphis (tonight, i think), but because the data is significant i'm posting it even though anthony's gone --- and i'll post it again if/when reyes ever gets called back up. turns out reyes has only given up one hit all season --- one --- on a high fastball: a three-run homer to michael barrett in his third start of the season. hitters are 1 for 14 (.071) off his fastball when he throws it letter-high or higher; they're 15 for 46 (.326) against fastballs thrown thigh-high or lower --- and 5 of those 15 hits went for extra bases, including 1 homer. he has thrown twice as many low fastballs (204) as high ones (100).

here's an even more incredible stat: batters swung at reyes' high fastball 53 times and only put the ball in play 3 times:

	swings	miss	foul	in play
high	53	18	32	3
low	77	13	23	41

given those numbers, i need somebody to explain to me why reyes can only survive in this league by eschewing the high heat and pitching to contact at the bottom of the zone.

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The fact is...

..that Reyes four seam fast ball has a lot of late movment. Pitch movement is probably is the most important thing about getting people out, followed by changing speeds, and then by location. This is the reason why scouts love "stuff" guys and not the Yuserimo (sp?) Petits of the world.

by BigJawnMize on May 31, 2007 9:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think

Yusmeiro. Dont' quote me on that, though.

Acquire Rocco Baldelli!

by the red baron on May 31, 2007 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Last Nite

First off, congratulations to Todd Wellemeyer on a very nice effort. First time out starting in the majors and he held it together. He wasn't spectacular, but he was plenty good to keep the team in the game. Luckily, the bats showed up and helped the big fella out. Good one, guys.

Ok, seriously? That stat on Reyes cannot possible be right. You have to have made some sort of error in typing that, and I wait for you to correct it. There is no way that Reyes could have had 53 swings at a given pitch produce only three balls in play. If you haven't made a mistake, and that is accurate, that is the most ridiculous statistic I have ever seen in a life of following this game. How can anyone possibly look at that and still try to force the pitcher in question to alter his whole philosophy?

I will never understand the Reyes paradigm. Ever.

Acquire Rocco Baldelli!

by the red baron on May 31, 2007 9:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

a little more data

if we add the middle of the strike zone to the equation, and break out all fastballs from the thighs up --- the top 2/3 of the strike zone --- the numbers look like this:

	avg	obp	slg	swings	miss	foul	in play
thighs up	.221	.250	.441	191	36	107	48
thighs down	.326	.426	.543	77	13	23	41

by lboros on May 31, 2007 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So why was Reyes sent down, exactly?

It would appear that not only the high 4 seamer would be his strong suit (which we've all mentioned previously), but that he WAS listening and throwing the 2-seamer and pitching to contact as requested.

So.... given that above, and as Larry mentioned in the post about the lack of run support in at least half of his losses... I'm not seeing why management has this attitude of "where's the beef?" when it comes to Reyes' pitching. He's doing what they asked of him. What more do they want?

Duncan 4 Cleanup

by SmashedAtoms on May 31, 2007 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great breakdown LB

Now is there some way we can make Dave Duncan read it?

by Phyrkrakr on May 31, 2007 9:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm with you

Someone in the organization has to be reading this blog...right?

Call up Ankiel!!

by jeff abs on May 31, 2007 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Heck

I think I'm going to print this out and mail it to Duncan. What the hell, right?

by raisin on May 31, 2007 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A thing of beauty

The 3-6-1 double play... Two this year already. Did we even turn one all last season? I know the offense is nice, but I just love watching the guys play slick D. Been missing it this year in fact... :-(

"That's baseball, and it's my game. Y'know, you take your worries to the game, and you leave 'em there. You yell like crazy for your guys." - Humphrey Bogart

by iron duke75 on May 31, 2007 9:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd be giddy about that play

if it weren't for Adam Kennedy throwing another DP almost into LF. Seriously, how is his defense THIS bad?

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 31, 2007 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can understand why

Duncan and TLR want Reyes to throw down in the zone. However, what Duncan and TLR don't understand is that Reyes is a rare example of a guy who has more movement on his higher 4-seam fastball. His 2-seamer is nothing more than a batting practice fastball. I can't recall a lot of pitchers in the last 20 years like this, for some reason Jim Deshaies comes to mind. He threw his upper 80's fastball up in the zone all the time and was a decent big league pitcher, although being a lefty didn't hurt him. It would make sense for the Cards to trade Reyes, but I wonder if DeWitt would allow it given his edict of developing young pitching. Seems to be a good test case for who is really in "control" of this team...DeWitt/Luhnow or Walt/Tony.

by lefty fan on May 31, 2007 9:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think there...

...are quite a few of these guys. Jarrod Wasburn comes to mind. He had a couple good years. There is just no indicating stat that would give you a clue about it.

by BigJawnMize on May 31, 2007 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Didn't Dan Cox

have a similar repetoire?

by Zubin on May 31, 2007 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Down in the zone

I have wondered if the "book" on facing the Cards has become only expect something in the lower half of the strike zone. It seems to me that the strategy in pitching is to move up and down in the strike zone in addition to in and out on the hitter. The strategy of pitching exclusively down in the zone eliminates a whole lot of combinations that a pitcher can use to disrupt a hitters timing, and thus probably easier to hit.

by bdief on May 31, 2007 9:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You never want

to pitch exclusively up in the strike zone. When you consistently throw high strikes, that's when you get hit, and hit hard. Leo Mezzone (sp?) preached that if a pitcher could dominate the fastball low and away--make it his own, throw it there whenever he wanted to--he could be a successful major league pitcher.

I think that's what Duncan's trying to do with Reyes. Get ahead with the fastball down, then get the strikeout with a fastball up. I think an ideal pitch sequence for Reyes would be:

Fastball down. Strike 1
Fastball down. Strike 2
Curveball out of the zone. Ball 1
Fastball up around the eyes. Strike 3

by Jhusk on May 31, 2007 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

interesting

that the "ideal" sequence for Reyes does NOT involve a changeup.

by TICY on May 31, 2007 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I said

"an" ideal, not "the" ideal. The only reason I threw the curveball in there, is that that changes the hitter's eye level, gets him thinking about that pitch. The 4-seamer looks like a curveball out of his hand, encourages the swinging strike. Another one you could go with is:

2-seamer down and away. Strike 1
4-seamer hard down and in. Strike 2
Changeup outside corner. Strike 3.

In writing this, something just hit me. I think the problem with Reyes and the 2-seamer is not the VERTICAL placement of the pitch, but the HORIZONTAL placement. In other words, not up-and-down, but in-and-out. Hear me out.

From what I've seen, anytime Reyes has thrown a fastball down, it's been the two-seamer, both on the outer and inner half of the plate. A two-seam fastball will MOST OF THE TIME tail back to the pitcher's arm side. A four-seamer, on the other hand, will usually ride with little or no tail. Pitchers are usually taught to throw the four-seam to the glove side of the plate, and the two-seam to the arm side.

So I think the problem might be that Reyes is throwing the two-seam to his glove side of the plate (outside to a right-handed hitter). The ball tails back to the fat part of the plate, and given the slower velocity of the two-seam, is hanging out there just waiting to be hit.

Reyes should throw the four-seam both away to rightys and up, and the two-seam in to rightys. That would set up his changeup a TON better, and force hitters to respect his 92-95 mph four-seam fastball.

by Jhusk on May 31, 2007 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like the way you think

and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

by TICY on May 31, 2007 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

Well if I had a newsletter you'd be the first subscriber. No, just a pitcher who loves to talk about pitching.

by Jhusk on May 31, 2007 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just went

and read the SI piece. I'm not a huge fan of the magazine usually; I think they're only marginally better than ESPN when it comes to the dumbing down and blinging up of sports, but I have to say that is an extraordinary piece of writing.

Acquire Rocco Baldelli!

by the red baron on May 31, 2007 9:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

MV3

Is this the first game this year where Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds have all knocked in a run? That was fun to behold. Here's to more of it.

by wildman on May 31, 2007 9:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

They all homered...

on that windy day in Chicago.

by guayzimi on May 31, 2007 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was there

How many people can say they've seen Pujols, Edmonds, AND Rolen hit a homer this year in person much less in the same game?? : )

by stltrav09 on May 31, 2007 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can !

I was in Chicago that weekened, and saw the game with my 2 year daughter. We bought ticket at Cubs website for face value the day before the game, and ended up seeing perhaps the most exciting game of the year.

by Keep your hands off on May 31, 2007 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

MV3 Last night

7 for 14
4 Runs
6 RBI
2 HR
2 Doubles
1 Triple

They keep doing that, we will win a bunch of ballgames.

What I'm most impressed with is the authority with which Edmonds and Rolen are hitting the ball now. It's not excuse me HR or high looping ones. They are drilling the ball all over the place.

During the broadcast, the Rockies announcer said "The Cardinals scored 4 runs in a hurry to take the lead". I told the missus last night, "Man, that felt like 2004. You couldn't leave the room in the Cardinals half of an inning cause if you did, you might miss a 5 run outburst."

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 31, 2007 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ran the numbers

Since Rolen joined the team back in 2002, here are the number of games per season that the MV3 have all notched an RBI in the same game (courtesy of Retrosheet):

2002: 6 times (in basically two months)
2003: 6 times (none in the 2nd half)
2004: 9 times
2005: 3 times
2006: 6 times
2007: 4 times (4/22, 5/25, 5/29, 5/30)

Actually, it seems a little silly now to have asked, "When was the last time it had happened?", when it had occured just the day before.

Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time.

by Solanus on May 31, 2007 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for running those numbers

I obviously didn't think much or do any research before I asked my "silly" question.

Who would have thought that we would lose 2 out of the last 3 with all three of those guys getting RBI's (5-4 to WSH and 8-3 on Tuesday)? That's actually encouraging that we're seeing that kind of production out of them. If they keep this up we could have a nice run coming.

I am surprised there weren't more of those occasions in 2004. Seems like it happened every other day - of course we also had very productive bats from Renteria, Walker and Sanders to add to the fun.

by wildman on May 31, 2007 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm DARN glad to see some hard throwing

starters. I don't care how we get 'em; I'd sure like to see the Cards start throwing a couple of starters out there who can throw mid 90s.

by sdrone on May 31, 2007 10:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

pitching philosophy

I think that dave & tony have become so entrenched in the pitch-to-contact philosophy to induce groundballs, limit pitch counts, and save money on the pitching staff (and have gained a lot of success and notoriety for it) that they are somewhat dismissive of other methods. That reluctance to do something different - coupled with the cavalier attitude of our young, hard-throwing Reyes - resulted in the situation we have now. It has little to do with the results of the outings, although I tend to believe that a few wins would've kept him in the majors but not out of the doghouse. I think a trade would be best if dave & tony are going to be here next year.

by hit and run on May 31, 2007 10:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't know why this is just Reyes

it seems to me that every pitcher needs to throw up occasionally, if only to change the batters eye level so you can come back down w/ the next pitch. I'm not talking belt high, center-cut but every pitcher, Reyes, Wellemeyer, Looper, everyone needs to throw one letter or shoulder high every now and then. Reyes will get some swing-and-misses, some popups, and some cheap strikes on foul balls. Then he can come back w/ the next pitch at the knees. It's tough to throw every pitch at the knees and not get hit. Batters will figure it out pretty quick -- hell, Nook Logan drove a knee high fastball off Reyes for a 2 run double in his coup-de-grace before being banished to Memphis.

by chuckb on May 31, 2007 10:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

off topic, but

I laughed pretty good when I read this first line:

"it seems to me that every pitcher needs to throw up occasionally..."

Call up Ankiel!!

by jeff abs on May 31, 2007 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Me too

It makes for a good joke.

What do Anthony Reyes and Calista Flockhart have in common?

.
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They both need to throw up often.

by Zubin on May 31, 2007 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I Think

the best way to structure that would be thusly:

Q: What do Anthony Reyes and Calista Flockhart have in common?

A: Both lost their jobs when they stopped throwing up.

Acquire Rocco Baldelli!

by the red baron on Jun 1, 2007 8:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

may as well

it's not like I haven't thrown up a couple of times watching the Cards this year!

by chuckb on May 31, 2007 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Am I wrong?

It seams to be the consensus of the VEB'ers that Reyes is a good pitcher who is being poorly coached? That Reyes would be better off by throwing the 2 seamer to set up the 4 seamer? I mean use the 4 seamer as his out pitch. I have only seen him pitch a couple of times. So my question is serious.

It seams that the coaching staff does not believe that his 4 seamer is that good, and are trying to convert him. Or the coaching staff is so stuck in it's own pitching paradigm, and they are blinded to his ability. Which is it?

by nybirdfan on May 31, 2007 10:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think most are on this page

but I'm not, necessarily. If anything, I think the 4 seamer should be used to set up the 2 seamer and the change. I think he probably needs both fastballs and to pitch up and down to change batters' eye levels. I'm not sure if he's being poorly coached or what the hell's going on quite frankly. But his curve isn't very good; he can't throw it for strikes and he'll get killed only using that 2 seamer and the change.

I should also add that I've mentioned a couple of times that perhaps Molina's to blame. That may be heresy but Reyes never shakes off the catcher. Therefore, if he's not following the game plan, why does the catcher not deserve some of the blame?

by chuckb on May 31, 2007 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

molina

maybe he is doing what he is told.

Before game one of last years World Serious it is my understanding that Duncan handed Reyes a ball and said 'Go get 'em kid.' Once Reyes got over the jidders he was lights out. Wasn't there something for Duncan to learn from that?

by nybirdfan on May 31, 2007 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed that he needs both fastballs

but the ratio should be reversed. by Solanus's count, reyes has thrown twice as many fastballs in the low zones as in the high zones --- 204 low, 100 high. it should be the other way around, for a simple reason: reyes' 2-seamer isn't any good. the brass dont think his 4-seamer is any good either, but the numbers (in this limited sample size) say otherwise.

his current mix of pitches appears to be about like this:

2-seam fb, 45 percent
4-seam fb, 25 percent
changeup, 15 percent
curves, 15 percent

i would rather see something like this:

4-seam fb, 45 percent
change, 25 percent
2-seam, 20 percent
curveball, 10 percent

use the 4-seamer to get ahead in the count, then throw 'em off balance / change the eye level with everything else.

by lboros on May 31, 2007 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok then

So he goes to Memphis and pitches according to his own design and performs like he has in the past. His AAA numbers are great. Then what?

by nybirdfan on May 31, 2007 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He gets tagged as an AAAA player

and traded.

Not that I'm pessimistic. Heh.

by sdrone on May 31, 2007 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For what it's worth...

Wellemeyer (according to the FSN radar) was throwing his fastball consistently at 92-93 MPH, and "humping it up" at 94-95 MPH. In the games I've seen Reyes pitch, he's been throwing the ball in the high 80s, and once in a while getting it up to the plate at 91-92.

First inference: Wellemeyer throws harder than Reyes. Whatever his other strengths and weaknesses, Wellemeyer is a "power pitcher."

Secondary inference: Reyes ain't. Now, it is entirely possible that Anthony's lack of "gas" is due to trying to throw the two-seamer; the "sinker" is generally slower than the "heater", no matter who's pitching. Perhaps throwing his four-seamer would allow Reyes to add the MPH one usually sees in a "power pitcher." Or maybe we've seen all the arm Reyes possesses, and he can't just "rear back" and blow the ball by major-league hitters. In which case, Reyes has to become a "command-and-control" guy... relying on movement and the change of speeds pitch-to-pitch to get MLB hitters out.

It's generally considered easier for a "command" pitcher to pitch down in the zone; given lboros' numbers above, Reyes may be an "outlier"... a "command" pitcher who's better off as a strikeout/popup pitcher.

What I think Duncan sees is a guy who shouldn't pitch "up in the zone"... and who was getting hammered in the "wins" column. Despite the general knowledge among fans/"seamheads"/observers that "wins" don't really signify a pitcher's true effectiveness, I think starting pitchers still put a great deal of emphasis on their personal W/L record.

Whether sending Reyes to Memphis is an effort to allow him to work on a sinker/breaking ball/overall "command" or an effort to keep him from going 0-15 with the Birds is another argument altogether.

It's a beautiful day for a ballgame!

by The Ol Goaler on May 31, 2007 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

FWIW

the other day, he was getting beat on fastballs in the 88-89 range and by falling behind in the count w/ runners on base. I think it was the 2 seamer. I think you're right in that he doesn't throw as hard as Wellemeyer but his 2 seamer isn't good enough to get people out consistently. He's gonna need the 4 seamer or another pitch.

by chuckb on May 31, 2007 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

good analysis, goaler

i also think there's a short-term vs long-term thing calculus at work. i think duncan believes that reyes might get away with pitching up in the zone in the short run, but eventually that will catch up to him --- either because of high pitch counts, or because the league will figure him out. so duncan probably thinks that it's in reyes' best interests, long-term, to learn the 2-seamer --- and he's probably right.

where i differ with duncan is: since the problem is a long-term one, why not take a long-term approach to "converting" reyes? let him pitch up in the zone for now --- let him ease into the 2-seam, pitch-to-contact philosophy. he may not get away with pitching up in the zone forever, but he can get away with it now --- so let him do it, while working the 2-seamer into his game slowly. duncan doesn't want to move slowly, he wants the conversion to take place yesterday --- and that, i believe, is why this isn't working.

by lboros on May 31, 2007 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think this is a Reyes-centric issue

Ottavino shows this is an organizational philosophy and if come up through the minors you better throw a 2-seam sinking fastball low in the zone. If you're a veteran, it doesn't seem to matter as much.

I think both Reyes and Ott are having the same problem swallowing this medicine because their 4-seam is working for them when their (shoddily commanded) 2-seam isn't. Until they fail with the 4-seam on their own terms, they are going to be hard to convince that they need to learn a 2-seam (and I'm not convinced that they do).

by azruavatar on May 31, 2007 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Joe Strauss Chat

Don't know if this has already been pointed out, but there was a very interesting answer in Strauss' live chat the other day that included this comment in response to an astute question about Reyes adding another pitch like a splitter if he can't master the sinker: "His delivery does not work for a sinker-style pitcher. He's told the organization repeatedly he won't change"

There's a lot of meat at that page.

by liam on May 31, 2007 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True True True...

The thing that bugs me about this is that the fastball is the first pitch you learn to throw. It dictates the style of pitches you tend to throw. Some guys have a natural sink on theirs and end up being good sinker/slider types. Some have a rise or late burst on the ball. They end up with a better curve/four-seamer combo. Generally this is due to how much a pitcher lead with his elbow through the release zone. The more you lead with the elbow the more the hand will drag through the pitching zone. This kinda promotes an early release (fingers to the sky at release). The more the hand is in-line with the elbow promotes a late release (fingers to the plate at release).

Second I think a lot of this come from Alan Benes tearing up his arm. LaDuncan have been looking for a way to develop young pitchers with out putting too many miles on the arm. I don't remember this discussion when Benes arm was about to fall off.

by BigJawnMize on May 31, 2007 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good post

The Benes point is very astute. Everyone cites Ankiel, but I can see how the Alan Benes disaster would be far more unsettling to Duncan and TLR.

by Valatan on May 31, 2007 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That has always bothered me

For years, I heard about Reyes 94 and 95 mph stuff.

But when I've seen him a few times on TV? Man, 90 mph seemed to be his top end.

by sdrone on May 31, 2007 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Last year

In his earlier games, like the White Sox one hitter, he was throwing mid nineties all night. I remember him even hitting 97 more than once. I don't know how accurate that gun was that night, but he used to throw a lot harder when he threw his way, a lot more 4 seamers.

Also, I remember reading a scouting report on him (which I can no longer find) saying he threw an effortless 94 mph fast ball. What happened? Is that 2 seamer just ruining everything?

by Carps on May 31, 2007 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm curious

How would you know he was throwing 94 or 95 mph in that game? The speed gun was malfunctioning and registering him at a max of something like 84.

by sdrone on May 31, 2007 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Clearly remember his ML debut

in Milwaukee, late season 2005. Consistently 94, hit 95 on the gun 15-20 times in that game.

youneverknow

by meat on May 31, 2007 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reyes nominally pitches 92-95

With the 4-seamer and 88-91 with the 2-seamer. The last start was so pathetic ("fastballs" clocked at 86, 84, 83!! mph), I thought the gun was in need of calibration. I have a feeling that this forced conversion is causing his arm speed to slow down occaisonally (trying to guide the sinker), which is throwing off the control of his curveball and his changeup.

(Then again, he could have just had a sore arm and couldn't get it done.)

Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time.

by Solanus on May 31, 2007 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This makes me think about

Garrett Anderson. Why?

For so long I didn't think he was a good player because he didn't walk. At some point I looked at how many doubles he hit and then his Homers and his high average. At that point I concluded that I should stop dwelling on what he couldn't do and have fun with what he can.

LaDunc should take a look at what Reyes can do and not be so mad about what he can't.

I wish we can see what Reyes can do if he was left alone for a couple of games. Maybe he isn't a major league pitcher but we can't tell with all the mixed messages.

by Harknights on May 31, 2007 11:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Reyes

Exactly, I wish they would just tell him, "Look, if you think your way will work better then let's see what you got" and just leave him be for 5 starts or so. If it's working then leave him alone, if it's not then maybe he will be willing to listen now that he's seen that the way he wants to do things isn't going to work.

by mikedallas23 on May 31, 2007 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The good results

with the high fastball may be a product of the fact that he's throwing down more often. It's a different look that hitters aren't sitting on. If he threw it more often, I would expect to see better contact from hitters. Nonetheless, he's still nigh unhittable up there right now, so even if batters make some adjustments as they see it more often, his results are still likely to be quite good.

by awpierce on May 31, 2007 11:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That high fastball that

Michael Barrett creamed to left wasn't a four-seamer either. He hung a two-seamer to him. I was sitting like 6 rows back behind home plate, and I was wondering what he hung until I looked back at the Wrigley gun and it said, "86 MPH."

by plh903 on May 31, 2007 11:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

So, like Valatan said yesterday

should we just keep pretending it is 2004? I'm all for it. Last night certainly felt like it.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 31, 2007 11:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's just a game...

I'm not losing any sleep over the way this team is playing this year, just like I didn't overreact last year. I'm 54, going on 70, with a heart condition that could either kill me 5 minutes from now, or allow me to live for the next 20-25 years. It is what it is, and there's not a damn thing I can do about it, so why get all worked up?

by cardsrul on May 31, 2007 12:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Troy Percival

Caught this nugget last night:

The Cardinals are among several teams eyeing pitcher Troy Percival's attempt to return to the major leagues, general manager Walt Jocketty said Wednesday.

The 37-year-old righthander, who had 324 career saves before retiring in 2006, threw a bullpen session Tuesday in California.

Jocketty declined to say whether the Cardinals had a scout present, but said: "I think we may talk to him, at least see him. We've talked about him."

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/0B4B8C02C590A67E862572EC00159FF5 ?OpenDocument

Where would he fit? Would he be taking Russ Springer's 7th inning job? Ryan Franklin/Izzy is a pretty nice 8/9 combo.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 31, 2007 12:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Unless

Franklin is "stretching out" to go into the rotation. I mean, how many starts is Todd Wellemeyer really going to get? I hope the dude continues to give the team a chance to win or whatever, but he's not very good.

by plh903 on May 31, 2007 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Too bad

We didn't pick up Brian Lawrence when the Rox cut him.

Anybody interested in seeing what this guy could do if C-Dunc goes to the DL or Ludwick is sent down?

by liam on May 31, 2007 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What's the equivalent...

of the Mexican League? Is that about high A?

Do teams send players that they have big plans for to Mexico?

by guayzimi on May 31, 2007 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think somone here

said it was between AA and AAA in terms of difficulty, but i slept and drank since then.

Rabid Redbird

by gthedamned on May 31, 2007 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's a AAA league

I think it would be a mistake to think that the Cardinals have given up on The Body since they sent him there. We had too many AAA-ready outfielders, and he was the natural choice to send to Mexico since all the English he knows, he learned from Scooby Doo and Dora the Explorer.

by liam on May 31, 2007 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice...

Given his age, I bet we see him in September or not at all... I mean, the guy was born four days after me and I'm definitely past my prime.

I wonder about the Mexican League being equal to AAA. He's doing much better now than he did last year at either Springfield or Palm Beach.

by guayzimi on May 31, 2007 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The BB:K rate is certainly encouraging

I doubt there's enough movement to and from the Mexican league to induce LWts so his production there can be put into useful context. He's hitting well, and he looks to be developing a better idea of the strikezone than what he's shown since being drafted.

He is a fast, strong, energetic RH OF who's reputed to have good defense and who can hit the ball very far. I've been dying to see him play since he was drafted. Now's as good a time as any.

(Nothing against Ludwick, who's been better defensively than expected.)

by liam on May 31, 2007 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he wouldn't help, at all, against lefties...

.190 vs. lefties, .367 against right handers

by longhornscardinals on May 31, 2007 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's surprising

He hit lefties pretty well last season.

by liam on May 31, 2007 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That can't reflect very many...

plate appearances...

Doesn't he bat right-handed?

by guayzimi on May 31, 2007 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

190ish AB's this season...

by longhornscardinals on May 31, 2007 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok...

I looked up the numbers.

He only has 42 at bats against lefties with the Oilers.

You can't draw any conclusions from that, imo, especially considering he hits right handed and he didn't have any kind of weird split last year.

by guayzimi on May 31, 2007 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

fair enough

you did much more research than I. I only took a quick glance at the splits on the link provided. thanks for the insight.

by longhornscardinals on May 31, 2007 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

at some point on here..

the mexican league was described this way:
there are two AAA leagues here in the states, the mexican league would rank third in that system if it were there, but it is better than AA

Pujols is the greatest Cardinal in my lifetime.

by bigcardsfan5 on May 31, 2007 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

is the horse dead yet?

I like all the pitch analysis and stuff, but can we focus on something beyond Reyes in the next week? It's making me less excited about coming here.

Pitching philosophies are an important issue but, in terms of Reyes, it seems most opinions are already set on the matter. The question I wish we would ask more is whether this philosophy works less often than other philosophies. Obviously with Carpenter it really works. Will it work for Wainwright? Should Duncan stick with what he's good at?

My conclusion in this case - Reyes would be average, but not great, following Reyes' gameplan. Tony and Duncan want him to change in order to get better and they have set ideas about how to do this. Reyes shows no ability to improve or attempt to learn, which I think is bad no matter what style Duncan is forcing on him. As a result, he's pitching their gameplan half-heartedly and sucking.

by enoscountry on May 31, 2007 1:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Duncan

here is what Duncan is good at: He can take verteran pitchers that have had success; study the film of them when they were successful; and then apply what he has seen in the film to better the aging pitcher. Much tougher than it sounds, but after that he is crap. If he has new pitchers with no track record, he only has one game plan to work with, ie sinker to the lower half of the zone...

by BigJawnMize on May 31, 2007 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Trade Possibility

Probably for later this season, regardless of our record:

Randy Flores to the Cleveland Indians for either OF Shin-Soo Choo or OF Ben Francisco

Choo was traded to them last year from the Mariners. He turns 25 in July, hit .323/.394/.499 at AAA last year, stole 26 (of 30) bases in 94 games, and was a highly touted prospect in Seattle. He has struck out in great bunches at the ML level (192 AB, 59 K) and Cleveland just traded away Ben Broussard to get him, so I don't know how available he is. Plus we have a few other LHB options that are rather similar, notably Mr. Ankiel.

Francisco has some pop (17 HR last year), speed (25-5 on SB's last year), hitting ability (.349 this year), is fairly young (25), & is right handed. No idea about his defense and he doesn't walk a lot, but he doesn't strike out much (72 in 515 AB last year). At the very least, he is multi-purpose platoon partner. Optimistically, he's a 4/5-tool, leadoff hitter.

Cleveland needs bullpen help and they're probably going to be in their race for the long haul. We've already noted our surplus at LH-reliever and we could most definitely be a seller this summer. Plus, we will need a leadoff hitter if Eckstein is not to return.

Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time.

by Solanus on May 31, 2007 1:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Eli Marrero

Don't know if anyone saw this bit either... I'd been wondering why Marrero was released and this is the first I've heard resembling an explanation: "Marrero 'mugged his chance,' La Russa said. 'He didn't go about it the right way. He didn't do enough with his chance.'"

Source

by liam on May 31, 2007 1:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting...

...because they cut him after one AAA game this year.

I'm not sure the Cardinals have ever had a worse player on their non-September roster than Brian Esposito.

by whopperman on May 31, 2007 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

His name: The OTHER Ozzie

by Valatan on May 31, 2007 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what about

Esteban Yan?

Acquire some runs!

by madding on May 31, 2007 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yan...

...was a much, much better hitter.

by whopperman on Jun 1, 2007 2:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Buyers and Sellers

MLB.com has an article today about who will be buyers and sellers at the trade deadline. It says that the Cards are on the fence right now but, if we end up selling, Izzy could be traded.

It also says that "Outfielder Juan Encarnacion is another veteran who could be dealt." -- from your lips to God's ears!

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070531&content_id=1996773&vkey=news_mlb&fext=. jsp&c_id=mlb

by chuckb on May 31, 2007 2:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Says ATL needs a fifth starter

It'd be nice to swipe Brent Lillibridge—after all, we can conjure up fifth starters from thin air.

by liam on May 31, 2007 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We are a good candidate then

We have at least four "5th starters" starting for us right now!

But seriously...
Last in homers
Last in stolen bases
Last in rbi's
Pitching near the bottom

And a record that shows it.

We are sellers

by redbird2006in on May 31, 2007 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

From Will Carroll at BP

some no news, some good news and some bad -- Yadi's out at least 6 weeks
Duncan's injury could be a big problem

"Duncan's minor knee injury also involves an infection, and one source has told me that the team is concerned about MRSA, the particularly virulent and lingering bacterial infection that has crept into sports. While the team refused comment on the situation and I was not able to confirm this source's report, MRSA is an important enough problem in baseball to note. You will remember that Alex Rios had this type of infection in his knee last season, and suffered through a terrible second half after the injury. Hopefully, Duncan will not have to deal with this, but it bears noting."

And finally --
"If Colby Rasmus isn't owned in your league, it's time to grab him... Rasmus seems to be on the Ken Griffey plan"

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6288

by chuckb on May 31, 2007 2:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Griffey

Sr. or Jr.?

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 31, 2007 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I assumed Jr.

by chuckb on May 31, 2007 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ha, I know

is that supposed to mean we could see Colby skip AAA and come straight to the big league club should Chris Duncan hit the DL? Does anyone think he could be a better hitter at the ML level RIGHT now that Juan is currently producing?

Then again, I'd take either Jr or Sr in a corner OF spot right now.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 31, 2007 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is a great question

I think he is better than Juan. That doesn't mean I think he belongs there now, though. Even if he does improve the major league team now, I think he'll improve more and faster by at least finishing this year in the minors, either w/ Springfield of Memphis. B/c of our record, the benefit the team would gain by having Rasmus in the lineup isn't enough to justify the promotion. He needs a little more time and it's not like he'll put us in position to win the division.

by chuckb on May 31, 2007 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

More Rasmus from BP

During today's chat w/ Jeff Ma I asked this question re: Rasmus & Will's statement in UTK, here is the Q&A:

Shep (Indiana): In today's UTK Will suggests we should all pick up Cards prospect Colby Rasmus in our fantasy leagues. Do you see him making an impact in the majors this year? The Cards seem to be saying he'll stay in the minors all year...

Jeff Ma: He's still a bit green but lord knows there are opportunities in that Cardinals outfield... probably worth a flier

by shepleffel on May 31, 2007 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Where do you think Carroll got this information?

Possibly from a certain blog?

Possibly from an interview given to Jeff Luhnow, posted on Monday?

Wouldn't surprise me, given that Larry emails Will Carroll directly at times to get injury info.

I'll let you all decide:

"Given Colby Rasmus's rapid adjustment to double A and Edmonds' struggles at the big-league level, might we see Colby at Memphis by late summer? In St. Louis at some point next summer?

It's too early to tell. Remember, it's only May; we still have three long months of minor league baseball up ahead. AA is not easy, even though Colby is making it look easy out of the gate. I think we will be patient with Colby, but I also think he will get a chance to play in the big leagues someday. Many players have made the jump from AA to the big leagues, so it's not a prerequisite that he spend a certain amount of time at AAA in order to be considered. His talent and the results will tell us when he's ready."

by silent_bob on May 31, 2007 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

good call

you may be right.

by chuckb on May 31, 2007 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BP & VEB

I've seen numerous shout outs from BP writers regarding VEB before, so it wouldn't surprise me at all if Will is getting some of his info from here.

by shepleffel on May 31, 2007 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would think he's referring to keeper leagues...

long-term leagues.

by silent_bob on May 31, 2007 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Crap...

if Duncan is MRSA, he could be out for a while. My mother had heart surgery about a year before she died, and developed a post-op MRSA infection. She ended up spending six weeks in the hospital, instead of the 7-10 days she should have. The thing about MRSA was that everyone who went into her room had to "dress out" in a gown and gloves.

by cardsrul on May 31, 2007 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

teaching

OK I had another thought on the whole Ottavino thing. If the cardinals want to develop a entire organizational philosophy of throwing sinkers, why don't they just draft pitchers that throw sinkers to begin with instead of force feeding the regimine.

by BigJawnMize on May 31, 2007 2:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Is the sinker or die a new thing?

I don't remember all of our previous pitching prospects being sinkerball pitchers. Ankiel and Benes come to mind as pitchers that went with more 4 seam pitches.

On the other hand, they both blew up while Morris the sinkerballer survived. Perhaps that is whats etched into Duncan's mind.

by DriverZn on May 31, 2007 3:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The fastball was not the critical

pitch for Morris or Ankiel. It was their 12-6 curveball.

by sdrone on May 31, 2007 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Like the changeup for Reyes

He was ranked as having one of the best in the NL last year based on batting average agains on changeups.

4 seam high, change low seems like a good combo.

by DriverZn on May 31, 2007 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the Morris example may be a very good one

when he came up, he was a 4 seamer, good curve sort of pitcher. He got hurt, came back and, toward the end of his career w/ the Cards, threw a sinker much more. He lost his 4 seamer, either through age or b/c of the injury but changed the way he pitched to a sinker, curve, changeup pitcher.

Maybe Tony and Dunc see Reyes as very much like Morris in his last couple years w/ the Cards, where Reyes' #2 pitch is the change as opposed to the curveball.

by chuckb on May 31, 2007 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jimmy Baseball Watch

Just a friendly reminder regarding tonight's game.

In 10 plate appearances against Rockie's pitcher Aaron Cook, Edmonds has six hits with a double and two home runs.

by stl tyler on May 31, 2007 3:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Post-Dispatch / Cubs incident

The si.com TLR article mentions a PD/Cubs incident that Tony was upset about. What exactly happened? I wasn't in town when it broke. Thanks!

by IrishDomer08 on May 31, 2007 3:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Earlier in the season, the P-D

aired a tongue in cheek article about the Cubs having "no chance" at winning the division. TLR freaked and demanded that peopel respect the Cards' opponents. It was a somewhat nasty press conference

by Valatan on May 31, 2007 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Impressive article

One of the better ones I've read in a long while, and it put a lump in my throat to hear that my favorite poem is in Hancock's locker. It's nice to have a guy you're used to thinking of purely as a manager humanized in some way.

The Falcoholic
The SBNation's Atlanta Falcons Blog

by Dave the Falconer on May 31, 2007 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks!

by IrishDomer08 on May 31, 2007 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No way

Do we bring Colby up. I am excited for this kid and there is no reason to bring up a 20 yr old right now.
Side note, per 162 game season, he'd be on pace for 33 homers and 66 DOUBLES. He's currently leading the league in slugging,is second in the league in OPS, and has been successful in all 8 stolen base attemps.
Again, I am very excited for him, but this season is not the right time.

by toris34 on May 31, 2007 3:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Plus why would we bring up a CF

When the hard hitting club of Edwards is apprently made of aluminum right now.

by toris34 on May 31, 2007 4:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Reply to this is your friend

Rasmus, an apparent born CF, doesn't HAVE to play CF. Ichiro, a similiar born CF played RF for years in Seattle.

As far as 'calling up the 20 year old', Griffey, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, etc were all called up 'young' and have thrived.

Colby Rasmus isn't the savior, this year atleast. But why continue to waste at-bats with Juan and Taguchi (who is a GOOD bench player/spot starter) when player like Ankiel and Rasmus could be getting experience.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 31, 2007 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

do we really want to start Rasmus'

service time during what appears to be a lost season. I don't.

by azruavatar on May 31, 2007 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If he is as good as billed, he'll get paid

ala Albert Pujols before he sees his real arbitration years. We aren't the Florida Marlins. If he can play, let him go ahead and start playing.

I'm not talking about rushing him, but if his 'arbitration clock' is one of the major contributors to holding him down, I don't think it's warranted.

Who is to say he doesn't hit the cover off the ball the next 5 years, tears up his knee and never see the big leagues again?

As they say, "The talent plays". If he is physically and developmentally ready to make the jump to the MLB club, Bill DeWitt's money shouldn't be a concern.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 31, 2007 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i don't think he's there developmentally

he's started slow at every level. I don't think he needs to jump from AA to the bigs. The money isn't a big deal but Jed is coming around w/ the bat and we have other AAA players that we could test out in RF before Rasmus (Stavinoha, for one).

I don't think Rasmus has good enough command of the strike zone yet for MLB pitchers not to carve him up. He's also still slightly susceptible to LH pitchers as they tend to nuetralize his power.

by azruavatar on May 31, 2007 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that's a great question!

I'm not sure exactly what a "Super-2" is for arbitration but service time is definitely something to consider. As was noted, he won't be a difference maker this year so if we can keep him in Cardinal red 1 extra year, it'll be worth keeping him in the minors, at least through the end of the season.

by chuckb on May 31, 2007 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Devil's advocate says...

...let him have his awkward adjustment period this year so he hits the ground running--for what should be a contender--in '08.

youneverknow

by meat on May 31, 2007 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Harcore,

I completely agree w/ you on Ankiel. He is (I believe) 25 now and MLB will not be overwhelming to him. And even though you have named some of the best players of todays generation, who all came up before the age of 21, there have been many more who where (maybe) rushed and never realized their supposed potential.

by toris34 on May 31, 2007 5:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ankiel is 28

If memory from yesterday serves me right. He isn't getting younger.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 31, 2007 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ankiel turns 27

in July.

He may not be young, but he is still athletically in his prime.

I am optimistic that, barring injury, he will at least be our #4 OF next year.

by silent_bob on May 31, 2007 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sorry turns 28 in July

by silent_bob on May 31, 2007 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ankiel

At some point this season, I'd like to see the Cards bring up Ankiel, put him in the lineup (say platoon in right with Juan E) and just ride it out. Either the kid sinks or swims. He's 28 and been in the Cards system for ages. Let's find out about him this year. Rick does have 87 ML ABs so it's not completely unreasonable to do so now. Why? (a) we should be out of it in August-September and (b) I expect Rasmus to be making an appearance in STL later in 2008 so it's best not to be done with the Ankiel as outfielder experiment (or resolved it positively) before we try and break in Rasmus in the same OF.

by jjray on May 31, 2007 5:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs