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Game 48 Open Thread: May 28, 2007, 2:05 pm CDT

Birdos_avatar_tiny by lboros on in St. Louis Cardinals News

wells

francis

2-8, 6.10

3-4, 4.11

GAME TIME 2:05 pm CDT

well, after reading joe strauss's article about the reyes demotion, i'm quite discouraged. this is still all about the two-seamer:
"In order to minimize damage when a situation develops, the best chance you've got is to get a ground ball," Duncan said. "Anthony's ratio of ground balls is not good. What's his alternative? Trying to strike somebody out. As soon as you start trying to strike somebody out, you typically end up losing control of counts and walking guys. Bad things happen. He really needs to develop more confidence in a pitch that he can get a ground ball with."

Duncan cited Reyes' reluctance to embrace a sinking, two-seam fastball and described his curveball as inadequate.

two things trouble me about that statement. first of all, the best chance to minimize damage is not a ground ball; it's a strikeout. a strikeout is always the best way to minimize damage, because a strikeout can't dribble through a hole or take a bad hop or get booted or lead to an errant throw. a groundball is only converted into an out 75 percent of the time --- that's a fact, not a wild-ass guess --- and it only becomes a double play (assuming men are on base) 30 or 40 percent of the time. a strikeout is an out 99.999 percent of the time; you can only go wrong if the catcher drops the 3d strike. dave duncan is a very smart man and one of the best pitching coaches in baseball, but he's wrong on this point.

the other thing that bothers me about that statement is the same thing that has bothered me about their handling of reyes from the very beginning: reyes is not a groundball pitcher. never has been. he's a strikeout/flyball pitcher. getting a groundball with men on base might be the best way to minimize damage in the abstract, but it's not the best way for this player. his strengths lie elsewhere. the same was true of woody williams, you might recall; he gave up more flyballs than grounders throughout his career in st louis, and has pitched that way throughout his career. woody had a lot of success here and has stayed in the major leagues for a long time; i don't recall the cardinals ever trying to change him into a sinkerball pitcher.

i had hoped that reyes was being sent to memphis to regain command of his 4-seamer --- throw 60 of them a game and hone his control, while sharpening his command of the changeup that plays so well off the high fastball. kinda doesn't look like that's the game plan, however. at this point, he --- and the organization --- are probably best served by a parting of company.

as for yesterday's result --- more discouragement. this team simply can't afford to lose home series to last-place teams. they went 4-2 on the homestand, which is ok, but this team has to be greedy --- after sweeping the pirates, they were in a position to go 6-0 or 5-1. their failure to capitalize on the opportunity they gave themselves --- well, it remains to be proven that this team is capable of seizing opportunities. the brewers are in a 4-12 tumble, while the astros have gone 5-11 over that span and the cubs have gone only 6-10 --- but the cardinals have gone just 7-9 over that span and remain, at best, on the fringes of the race.

and now they have three relief pitchers in the rotation.

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just trade him already
i'd rather anthony go have success elsewhere and prove duncan wrong at this point. he's not going to be a success here. this whole thing is very disheartening. worries me about some of the other pitchers in the ranks too, IE ottavino
Future Redbirds

by erik on May 28, 2007 10:38 AM EDT reply actions  

what is it with Reyes?
It seams it can be only one of two things.
  1. Reyes isn't that good and Ducan is trying to make him better by switching is style.
  2. Reyes is just fine and Duncan can't see it, and feels Reyes must change.
Either way Reyes is resisting the change. This is not a good situation for Reyes either way. The time to have moved him would have been last winter. I was all for trading him. Now his stock is low, but maybe he could be moved for a middle infield prospect.

by nybirdfan on May 28, 2007 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

reyes continues to dissapoint
and you are correct on the incorrect handling of him from the very beginning. anyone have any decent trade ideas?

as for the team, i'm still holding out hope they can sweep the rockies and have a winning may.

by stlcardinalsfang on May 28, 2007 10:38 AM EDT reply actions  

Some trades I wouldn't mind seeing
Some more hopeful than others:

To Arizona (+ a prospect) for Carlos Quentin. (Even better, widen the net and try to get Doug Davis in return. He is 2-6 now, making $5.5m per for the next 3 years, and fits the profile of a guy who could excel under Duncan.)

To Florida for Anibal Sanchez - trade one problem for another, in a "change of scenery" deal.

To the Cubs for Matt Murton (+ IF prospect)

To Tampa for Jorge Cantu (+ prospect) ... can play second and third, and has untapped power (but no plate discipline).

To Washington for Ryan Church

... just some ideas. This isn't a good situation to be trading from. In this day of revenue sharing, there are less salary-dump opportunities. The biggest market opportunity is to trade short-term benefits for long-term potential, or vice versa (if you're in contention). We are trying to trade away long-term potential, but we have little need for short-term benefits. So in some sense, we have to look for other teams' problems, and see if we can turn them into gold.

by taiko on May 28, 2007 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Trade idea
How about Walt Jocketty for Billy Beane or someone else who can tell a good pitcher from a crappy one?

by RedbirdRay on May 28, 2007 10:43 AM EDT reply actions  

extremist comment
walt has made more that his fair share of trades involving decent pitchers.

by stlcardinalsfang on May 28, 2007 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Name them.
What trades for decent pitchers has WJ made?   He's brought in decent bats.

Trades bringing in pitchers include Marquis, King, Tomko, Woody, Kile, Weaver, Jose Sosa and others.  

Woody and Kile are the best of the lot.  And both were pretty much scrap heap reclamation projects at the time.

In the meantime, he's also traded away Cy Young candidate/calibre Dan Haren for the obviously-injured, peripherally declining Mark Mulder.

by RedbirdRay on May 28, 2007 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

trades
You know, Jocketty's made some pretty good trades....McGwire, Renteria, Edmonds, Kile, Vina, Woody, Rolen. I know none of these are recent, but our 2006 World Championship is recent.

Things aren't going well for the Cardinals right now. That doesn't mean we should turn on a GM that has brought us a decade of success.

by Fitz on May 28, 2007 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

Recent discussions
As recently discussed by Larry, WJ's days of fleecing other GMs are probably over.   Most every front office now includes a combination of statistically oriented and scouting oriented consultants.

Additionally, with the Wild Card days now running at full-force there are too many teams still in contention at the trade deadline.  It makes salary dumbs fewer and farther between and therefore the cost a higher premium.

The new mid-market startegy for winning will be the valuing/evaluating of non-free agent young talent.   GMs will need to win in the margins.  

I love the contributions WJ/TLR have made to this organazition but watching this year's team has me believing they are unwilling to change/adapt with the times.   The widening rift with Luhnow seems proof positive.

And, while I credit WJ with genius for the 2004 team...I credit only luck for the 2006 WS win.   A flawed 83 win team was no stroke of genius.

by RedbirdRay on May 28, 2007 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

What I'm saying is
they suck at evaluating/developing young talent.

by RedbirdRay on May 28, 2007 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

Adam Wainwright?
Our postseason MVP was acquired by Jocketty via trade.

Additionally, Jocketty has acquired several "diamonds in the rough" via free agency, notably Chris Carpenter and Jason Isringhausen. I think you can stack up Jocketty's record of pitcher acquisitions against just about anybody in the game today and he will be well in the upper bracket.

by taiko on May 28, 2007 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

The Weaver deal didn't tunr out too badly
And few at the time were moaning about the Mulder deal re: including Haren.  There was a lot of moaning about the loss of still-not-in-the-majors Daric Barton, but little about Haren.

by Valatan on May 28, 2007 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Val, unless my memory is faulty
most people thought that Mulder for Haren was in itself a somewhat even swap.  The Cardinals gave up a cheap potential #2 or #3 starter for a pitcher who might be a reliable #2 guy out of the gate.  The complaint was when Calero and Barton had to be throw in, it made the deal rather lopsided.

by Zubin on May 28, 2007 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

huh?
Would you trade two World Series appearances and one World Series championship for a bunch of early playoff exits too?

by Fitz on May 28, 2007 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

Irrelevant
I would trade a player who was past his prime when the game had passed him by.

I would also trade a GM who has ceased being effective and possibly lets his flawed manager make his decisions for him when his time has passed also.

by RedbirdRay on May 28, 2007 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Most Disheartening Loss Of The Year
The loss to Washington yesterday was personally, for me, the most disheartening loss of the year. We needed this win to a lowly team at home. I've always been baffled by the struggles against junkball lefties, which dates back longer than I care to remember. To make a serious run, we'll need good pitching, and can we get that?

by Iowa on May 28, 2007 10:48 AM EDT reply actions  

Rolen injured
Not sure if this was posted yesterday and if it was I appoligize, but apparantly the team is not sure if Rolen will be able to play.

Collision

They say he might have a concussion.  Not sure how that happened, but I guess when you run into a load like Dmitri anything can happen.

by Big Red on May 28, 2007 10:55 AM EDT reply actions  

If you would like to know
how it happened, try reading yesterday's game thread.

by RedbirdRay on May 28, 2007 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks for the advice
Per your request, I went back and scanned the posts from yesterdays games.  (btw, sorry I didn't have the time to sit and do that earlier).

While doing this I noticed that Hardcore had updated the posts at a little after 11 pm.  Once again, I'm sorry i wasn't up all night refreshing this page looking for new posts.  

Anyway, after reading the new posts, yes it says he had a concussion.  But, what i didn't see/read, is how it happened.  So I ask you, since you seem to have all the time in the world to disect 300 gameday posts, not to mention the ability to offer top-of-the-line advice at a moments notice...how did it happen?  

As was stated in the thread, he ran into Young with his knee, never hit his head and got right up.  If I missed it in there somewhere, I appoligize for missing it twice.  

by Big Red on May 28, 2007 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

You and I wouldn't
need to disect so many posts if so much wasn't repetitive, eh?

When you say, "I apologize in advance if this was posted" then get defensive when called on it, your apology seems false.

by RedbirdRay on May 28, 2007 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

False appology?
How about this one?

I appoligize for RedbirdRay becoming the newest internet know-it-all and message board rule czar.

Btw, you don't need to thank me since I don't plan on responding to this discussion with you any longer.

Have a nice day, I don't want to keep you from your tireless work analyzing message board posts and highlighting passages from Moneyball.

by Big Red on May 28, 2007 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

You and Zubin are correct
It wasn't nice of me.   I owe you an apology Big Red.  

As I stated in the Reyes diary, I'm so upset over this I am going to take a break from the Cardinals for at least a couple weeks.  I should have started my hiatus immediately, but instead I took it out on Red.

I admit I am impatient with people who fail to use the internet for what it is...an information super highway.  In my opinion, it takes less time to google for an answer to a simple question than to make a post that is redundant and will waste the time of 20, 30 or 100 other readers.   Yes...it would have wasted less of my time to simply answer the question...but, in general, I don't feel laziness at my expense should be rewarded.  Big Red I sincerely do not mean this latest paragraph in your direction.   I agree with Zubin when he said he hasn't ever noted you to be habitual at this minor offense that is my pet peave.   I am simply trying to explain my character flaw.

I am sorry.

by RedbirdRay on May 28, 2007 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

accepted
and I retract my last post.  I had had enough and lashed out.

Sorry.

Truce.

by Big Red on May 28, 2007 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

no kidding!
it was a legitimate question and deserved either a legitimate answer or, if that was impossible, just ignore it completely!

by chuckb on May 28, 2007 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

Rolen says he is fine
I trust Scott Rolen's medical opinion right now more than this teams medical staff.
Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 28, 2007 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think you have anything to appologize for.
Lots of information get posted here repeatedly within threads.  Few people would expect someone to sift through 400+ posts a day to find something.  As long as you aren't doing it habitually, I have no problem.

by Zubin on May 28, 2007 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

He certainly doesn't
I would hardly call it lazy to not read all of the posts from the game thread.

by chuckb on May 28, 2007 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm stunned to read about
this.  If they wanted Anthony to pitch a different way, why wasn't he asked to do it from the very beginning?  It's apparent to me he is failing because they are asking him to do something he is not capable of doing, maybe never was.  My own son is a pitcher and he never could throw hard, but he had a nasty curve ball.  He finally had success when his American Legion coach used him against teams that had problems with the off speed stuff. Now his college coach is trying to convert him to a side-armer, and it's been an impossible transition so far.  He can't throw a strike that way, at least not yet. Maybe the Cardinals would be better served if they looked at what he CAN do and base the game plan around that.  This love affair with the ground ball---has anyone noticed that Eckstein has virtually no range and no arm, and that second base play has only been adequate this year.  It looks like Anthony is being made the fall guy for the pitching woes, hitting woes, injury woes, and the fact that a lot of our team just isn't very good.  Maybe it's time for Tony and Dunc to go.  They are obviously not on the same page as the player development people are.

by jillsinmo on May 28, 2007 10:57 AM EDT reply actions  

how about andy marte
for reyes? going into last year, marte was considered to be the best third base prospect in the game...he's been disappointing for cleveland so far but he's only 23 and the upside is still there.
Future Redbirds

by erik on May 28, 2007 11:08 AM EDT reply actions  

esp.
considering rolen's woes and propensity to run into ogre sized first baseman
Future Redbirds

by erik on May 28, 2007 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

I just read...
a nate silver chat where he labeled Marte a bust. That might be a bit premature...

I guess I'd do that. At this point Reyes isn't useful to the team, so trading him for just about any other high-upside player seems attractive.

by guayzimi on May 28, 2007 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not that I'm Nate Silver...
but I agree. Of course, he also recently came close to saying the same thing about Reyes.

Quoted in this thread

by taiko on May 28, 2007 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Reyes
We shouldn't trade Reyes because he had success last year as a rookie.  Let him sit in the minors for a little bit and if he doesn't get any better, then we should try to trade him, although we won't be getting very much.  Also, considering what our rotation is made of, they haven't done that bad.  Most of those pitchers should probably be in Memphis, but hopefully things will turn around when Carpenter and Mulder come back.  

by 2x41z2tu on May 28, 2007 11:12 AM EDT reply actions  

In Memphis...
or the bullpen.

by Big Red on May 28, 2007 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

Misreading Dunc's comment?
Here's the quote again:

"As soon as you start trying to strike somebody out, you typically end up losing control of counts and walking guys. Bad things happen."

Dunc didn't say that ground balls are better than strike-outs.  He said that trying to get strike outs out offen leads to bad counts and walks (and I assume he would include high pitch counts).

by Knish on May 28, 2007 11:20 AM EDT reply actions  

philosophical disagreement
>>Dunc didn't say that ground balls are better than strike-outs.  He said that trying to get strike outs out offen leads to bad counts and walks (and I assume he would include high pitch counts).<<

Your point is: Dunc didn't say ground balls are better than Ks, he said trying to get ground balls is better than trying to get Ks????  It's the same thing.

D. Duncan's one size fits all pitching philosophy: starting pitchers should rely heavily on sinkers to induce ground balls.  This way they keep their pitch counts low and can stay in games longer plus pitching to contact should avoid getting into hitter counts and, thus, lower walks.

But what happens when you have a pitcher whose entire game is getting ahead with a 4 seam rising fastball and then going to his changeup to put the hitters away?  D. Duncan is trying to jam the round Reyes into his square sinker ball box.  I like Duncan's philosophy but he is damaging Reyes.  Let Anthoney Reyes be Anthony Reyes and if it means trading him to another team, so be it.

by jjray on May 28, 2007 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

I was just...
going to point this out. lboros, I think your second argument - that Reyes is Reyes and can't be changed - might be valid, but in regards to point #1, what Duncan is saying is that going for a K is a high risk strategy. It's great when it happens, but when it doesn't - and it often doesn't - walks or long fly balls result.

When a guy with a good sinker goes for a grounder he usually gets it. Sure 25% of the time something bad happens, but strikeout pitchers don't get strikeouts 75% of the time. And I'll take my chances with a grounder over Reyes trying to K someone with a loosely controlled four-seamer and a change that just doesn't fool many hitters.

by guayzimi on May 28, 2007 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, but
Duncan also says that Reyes has a hard time getting a ground ball and so going for the strikeout is his only option -- and that's a bad thing.  He implies that Reyes doesn't have the repertoire to be able to get ground balls and, since trying to strike people out is bad, he's really limited when runners reach base.  

Duncan's still trying to turn Reyes into a ground ball pitcher and he's really not suited to that.

Additionally, I have a real problem w/ Duncan and/or LaRussa complaining about the 1st pitch fastball Reyes threw to Logan because he (LaRussa, I think) also complains that his curve ball really isn't up to par.  They want him to throw 2 seamers down in the zone, he throws one, it gets hit hard, and they complain about that!  What if Reyes had thrown a 4 seamer letter high?  Maybe a ball, maybe strike one, or maybe a popup.  

I guess they wanted a change there?  So then maybe Yadi should have called for a fucking change b/c Reyes didn't shake Yadi off once all night!

by chuckb on May 28, 2007 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

a week or so ago
i posted about how much i hate this pitch to contact crap and the response i got was who do we have thats a strike out pitcher
well go back and compare reyes before he hit the bigs and duncan started messing with him to now
the guy is a strike out pitcher
some people arent going to succeed letting people hit the ball
look at wainwright
he was a dominate bullpen guy....one, because hitters only saw him once, and two....because he was aggressive and went for the strike out
reyes would be better served going to somewhere like oakland, where it seems they can take a guy and let them be what they are, such as haren...
he didnt have very nice things to say about duncan's philosophy
and what we wouldnt give to have hbim back right now...
RESIGN JIMMY BALLGAME....HE SHOULD RETIRE A REDBIRD!

by benstl on May 28, 2007 11:30 AM EDT reply actions  

Strikeout pitcher at AAA
doesn't equal strikeout pitcher at MLB.

It can, of course, but it is much easier to miss bats at the AAA level.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 28, 2007 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

Can't lose Scott Rolen
Over Larry's sample size of 7-9 (16 games):

Scott Rolen
.280 BA .775 OPS 7 Runs 6 RBIs 4 2Bs and 2 SB

He's coming around and is providing protection behind Pujols, moreso that before.

If he goes down, who do we have left to protect?  Edmonds?  That's about it and he doesn't start against lefties.  

Jim Edmonds
.279 BA .775 OPS 6 Runs 10 RBIs 1 2B 2 HR

For all the talk that Jim Edmonds is 'coming around', Scott Rolen seems to be right on par with him.  The difference?  Scott Rolen is hitting the ball 390 feet to the deepest parts of the ballpark.  Edmonds is pulling it into the RF bleachers.

In summation, Scott...please don't be injured.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 28, 2007 11:41 AM EDT reply actions  

This flashes me back
to Eck and JEd's concussion/post-concussion problems last year.

by cardsrul on May 28, 2007 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Didn't Friday's analysis support Duncan's quote
I really don't get this board's reaction.  

First of all, Duncan doesn't say strikeouts are bad.  He says when Reyes tries to strikeout batters he gets behind in the count and gets hammered.  And on this point, lboros's analysis supported this completely.

  1. We saw that Anthony pitches fastballs more, specifically 2-seamers, with no runners on and is more successful.
  2. With runners on base, he throws more curveballs and when he throws fastballs they are 4-seamers. In these situations he gets behind in the count and gets hammered.
  3. What hasn't been pointed out yet is that Reyes strikesout more batters with no runners on (when he uses the 2-seamer more) than when runners are on (when he uses the 4-seamer more): 21% vs 18% of ABs.
So why does everybody think Duncan screwed this up?  All rookie pitchers are successful in their first 3 games and then get worse as scouting reports get better.  Duncan didn't make Reyes worse.  

Reyes is not a power pitcher - his fastball peaks at 93/94.  To the extent he tries to pitch the 4-seamer and overpower he fails.  Plus he can't locate and fool them with his curveball.  Duncan is right.

by enoscountry on May 28, 2007 11:47 AM EDT reply actions  

Duncan
Although strikeout pitchers are a good thing, they are not Duncan's specialty.  Reyes will never have great success with the Cardinals as a strikeout pitcher.  He would probably be doing better a lot better right now if he had a pitching coach who supported strikeout pitchers, and if he didn't have such bad run support.

by 2x41z2tu on May 28, 2007 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

That's not at all what LB contended
and not at all what his appearance Friday demonstrated.  To wit:

"with nobody on base, he pumps that fastball in there 3/4 of the time --- but when guys get on base against him he turns increasingly to his off-speed stuff. the trend is even more pronounced on the first pitch of the at-bat"

(from Friday's 1st post)

Watching Friday's game, I concluded that Reyes threw almost as many (12-13) offspeed pitches to batters w/ runners on base as he did fastballs.  This was not, as you say, him throwing 2 seamers w/ bases empty and 4 seamers w/ runners on.  In fact, we only speculated about 2 seamers vs. 4 seamers.  The distinct difference was between the % of fastballs w/ runners on vs. w/ bases empty.  

Additionally, of the 13 fastballs he threw w/ runners on Friday, only 3 were 90 mph or harder.  Most were in the 87-89 range.  To me, this indicates that he primarily threw 2 seamers w/ runners on -- either that, or his 4 seamer is really lacking.  I didn't see evidence of him trying to "overpower" anyone Friday night.  And he most certainly isn't throwing more 4 seamers than 2 seamers w/ runners on.

by chuckb on May 28, 2007 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

yes and no
I don't contend that it is a black and white 2-seamers with nobody on, 4-seamers with RISP.  However, I think what the analysis did show is that Reyes is not pitching the way Duncan wants and when he does this he is failing.  

Whether Reyes is "trying" to strike out hitters I don't know, but he is doing what Duncan describes as "trying" by going to more curveballs and more 4-seamers - he's getting behind in the count, getting hammered, and is not striking out as many hitters.

I agree the 2-seamer and 4-seamer distinction is slight and hard to measure.  But I think your analysis of Friday supports it as well.  Say he threw mostly 2-seamers.  I would still bet he threw at least one 4-seamer and the velocity of that pitch didn't top 92-93.  How's he going to succeed with that?  If he wants long term success I think he needs to change his ways.

by enoscountry on May 28, 2007 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rough Start
It seemed to me that Duncan was basically agreeing with the logic in the thread from a couple days ago (point 2 above)

There certainly seems to be a lot of teeth-gnashing about this.  The Cardinals had to do something.

They couldn't let him go 0-10 or 0-11 -- talk about destroying one's confidence.  

He's not improving and the second time through the league will be worse for him, so hardly a lot of upside continuing to throw him out there.

I think the braintrust basically decided the season is over -- or at best they can make the playoffs with or without an 0-8 pitcher.  

Everyone on the board always wants these AAAA guys in the minors to get a chance so if Wellie fails, Cate goes into rotation -- can't be all bad.  We'll find out who has it and who doesn't.  Clearly Keisler and Reyes don't.  Maybe Thompson and Cate do.  

As for trading Reyes -- who exactly will pay up for him now?  He needs a good second-half in the minors and hopefully a positive September with the Cardinals before we get anything useful for him.    

by The Duke on May 28, 2007 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

3 relievers in the rotation?
Anyone else think that Todd W. is just there long enough for Weaver to come off the DL and get traded?

by tdawg on May 28, 2007 11:57 AM EDT reply actions  

Good god
I hope not.  But there was a quote in today's p-d about Walt looking for answers "outside the organization".  

"General manager Walt Jocketty has meanwhile intensified a search for alternatives outside the organization, according to a source."

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/8AEE9C1940363C55862572E90012B9E7 ?OpenDocument

by chuckb on May 28, 2007 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

i fear
losing rasmus for stop gap crap
Future Redbirds

by erik on May 28, 2007 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Reyes and Rasmus
for Ichiro and Jeff Weaver?
Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 28, 2007 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Seattle is not going to trade Ichiro....
...he is the face of the organization and Seattle makes a ton of $$$$ off of him. I think Seattle will make an all out, maybe even an absurd effort to sign him. Having said that, I'd cross off Pujols and let them take Edmonds and any two for Ichiro.

by Ignatius J Reilly on May 28, 2007 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

He's more than likely going to walk
this offseason.  If they haven't signed an extension yet, the likelihood that they do is very thin.
Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 28, 2007 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree....
...and further, Seattle is in the awful position of losing an icon and being unable to do anything about it. I don't think they keep him even with a "funny money" offer, but they can't trade him.

by Ignatius J Reilly on May 28, 2007 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Please no
Rasmus should be untouchable...  Rasmus is worth a zillion times more than Ichiro by himself.  His OBS will be better and he'll steal nearly as many bases but is 14 years younger...  

My two cents on Rasmus is that this THE MOST IDIOTIC SEND DOWN I'VE SEEN!  The Cards are clearly sucking and Reyes is part of that no doubt but he has done all he can in AAA.  Let him suck in the Bigs - JUST LIKE MATT CAIN RANDY JOHNSON AND ALMOST EVERY OTHER BIG NAME PITCHER HAS!!! What are we trying to accomplish this year other than developing our youngsters?

Sorry - this is crappy news and hadn't heard it until this afternoon.  Crap.

by Lawless on May 28, 2007 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Second para
Said Rasmus - obviously meant Reyes - Wooo

by Lawless on May 28, 2007 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think the point is
We want to try and get back in the race. Once Reyes figures it out in AAA, Kipper will be the next to get the boot.

by El Hombre on May 29, 2007 3:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

ok
maybe not stop gap crap...just crap in general. like some of you were saying, he should be untouchable. everyone else down on the farm i wouldn't care if they were traded for something of = value. Seriously, I just have a bad feeling about them trading Rasmus for someone nowhere near the return.
Future Redbirds

by erik on May 28, 2007 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree
I'm right there with you.  I've been wondering that same thing.

Better to fiddle with Wellemeyer than to change Franklin's role since he's been so effective in the 7th and 8th innings.

by UofIx3 on May 29, 2007 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

I hope
Wellemeyer proves me wrong (Looper sure did), but I just can't see this reliever to starter solution continuing to work. If Looper doesn't fall apart later in the season, I'll consider that a miracle, but I'm willing to have faith in only one miracle at a time. I dunno. If Welly can give them a good four or five innings, I guess that'll work out better than Reyes--at least they'll know where the wall is and the games might not be lost in the first two innings. But the whole thing feels like bad juju to me, and I don't think this team can fight through much more bad juju. If Rolen is actually hurt too...ay carumba.  

by rockin redbird on May 28, 2007 11:58 AM EDT reply actions  

I agree...
though it's not so much Looper's arm I'm worried about. He seems to be succeeding throwing mostly fastballs, which is his best pitch and mechanically easiest to throw. I think he'll actually work out to the point where we talk about re-signing him to be our new Suppan in the rotation.

What I'm worried about is the effect of depleting our current bullpen guys, who consistently have to get 10-12 outs per game in these starts by Thompson, Wellemeyer, etc.

by taiko on May 28, 2007 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Duncan isn't all wrong.
First off I also caught the same thing that jjray points outs above.

Duncan isn't saying a groundball is better than a strikeout, he is saying going for a groundball is better than going for a strikeout.  Or put another way when the count is 0-0 trying to induce a groundball is a more reliable way out getting an out than trying to induce a strikeout.  I wonder if there is data out there to verify this.

Also, it seems to me that Reyes does (or did) need another pitch to be successful at the major league level.  Originally he had command only of his 4-seam fastball and a change up.  He also threw a curve, but without much consistency.  The two seam (sinking) fastball may not have been the right pitch to compliment Reyes repertoire, but give Dunc' credit for recognizing Reyes needed another pitch.

by Zubin on May 28, 2007 12:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Agreed...
While I'm not a big believer in the "radar gun tells all" philosophy, I do believe that the gun can tell you whether a pitcher has the ability to pitch "high" in the strike zone...

Based upon what I've seen while watching ballgames from multiple TV sources, it appears that "power pitchers" have the ability to consistently throw fastballs at 94 MPH (and up.) The "rising" (four-seamer) fastball is most effective when it's above the "letters"... hitters swing at it because they can see it, but they can't "catch up" to the pitch.

From watching Reyes pitch at the MLB level over the past couple of seasons, it appears that his fastball "tops out" at 91-92 MPH. That's not fast enough to "blow by" major league hitters, unless your "signature" pitch is something else (Curveball, change-up, slider, whatever.)

IF Reyes can go to Memphis and get that four-seamer up to 95 MPH, all well and good. Otherwise, he needs to work on something that he can command down in the strike zone. I don't care if that pitch is a two-seamer, the curve, the slider, the change, or a Gaylord Perry Special.

I'm of the opinion that Reyes has been "nibbling" with runners on base because he doesn't have a "swing and miss" pitch... let's hope he finds it at Memphis!

It's a beautiful day for a ballgame!

by The Ol Goaler on May 28, 2007 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

He definitely needs another pitch
I'm not sure if he needs to work on his curve or 2 seamer or what.  But I think he does have a swing-and-miss pitch -- his change up.  It's very good.  But it's only going to work if he improves his fastball.  

by chuckb on May 28, 2007 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

So then why not
try to develop his change?  He already has a good one, how 'bout makin' it great?  Or his curve?  

Why not develop one of his other pitches as opposed to teaching him a new one?  

And I'm not knocking Dunc, or the whole 2-seamer deal, I just get frusterated when they let this guy go so long and now want to change him.  It reminds me of Corey Patterson.

Corey hit in the 3 hole his entire life.  All the way up through the Cubs organization through AAA Iowa.  Then they called him up to the majors and said "You're our new leadoff guy!!!" and then freaked out when he struck out 100 times and didn't know how to bunt.  

If you want specific players, draft them or change them immediatley.  Don't promote a guy all the way through the system and then decide to change what's been successful once he reaches the majors.

by Big Red on May 28, 2007 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Developing the change or curve
I can't imagine there would be much (if any) value in concentrating on further development of his chnage.  He already has a good one, I don't see how making it "great" would help him set up hitters much more.  As for the curve it may be something in his mechanics (perhaps he tips the pitch a bit), that led Dunc to believe he needed something else.

by Zubin on May 28, 2007 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'll agree with you on this, but
not re Patterson.  It's hard to believe the Cubs groomed him as a 3 hitter. While he clearly is not a leadoff guy, why would you bat him third either? His inability to get on base has always been his greatest weakness (and your #3 had better have a good OBP), one that the Cubs never recognized.

by MdRedbirdFreak on May 28, 2007 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

stirkeouts vs groundouts vs pitch count
I think the strikeout versus groundout argument is a red herring when it comes to Reyes. Reading between the lines, you could easily read Duncan's critique as one of pitch counts.

Reyes averaged 3.87 pitches per plate appearance last season, 3.86 PPA this season. Simply too high to efficiently work through innings, or rack up more than 6 IP per game. It's the same as critiquing him for "nibbling," or for "not having an out pitch."

OTOH, high PPA isn't necessarily indicative of a bad pitcher. Here's the top fifteen according to Hardball Times:

Jake Peavy      4.1 PPA
Barry Zito       4.0
John Maine     4.0
Tom Glavine   4.0
Chris Young   4.0
Randy Wolf     4.0
C Zambrano    4.0
Chuck James   4.0
W Rodriguez   4.0
Aaron Harang  4.0
Matt Cain        3.9
Doug Davis     3.9
Adam Eaton    3.9
Anthony Reyes   3.9
Oliver Perez    3.8

Coincidentally or not, this list is entirely made up of fly ball pitchers. Only Zambrano and Peavy have GB% anywhere near 50%.

Maybe it really is that Reyes is the worst possible pitching prospect to give Duncan, whose ideas about effective outs are pretty calcified.

by taiko on May 28, 2007 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Correction... credit where it is due.
It was Knish's, not jjray's comments that I should have referred to above.

by Zubin on May 28, 2007 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

reyes
correct me if i'm wrong but didn't I read that in his last start someone on here posted that all of his pitches were missing.

To me reyes has always had a command issue..maybe it started in the majors maybe it didn't. Not with just the 2 seamer but alot of stuff.

sorry i didn't read through the other threads to find the exact quote..jk

now not only a clever saying, but a team that plays in STL

by punchinjudy on May 28, 2007 1:21 PM EDT reply actions  

Ground outs versus strike outs
What you're missing, LBoros, in your comparison of the ground out to the strike out is that no pitcher can count on getting a strike out just because he wants one. If you're going to compare strike outs to ground outs, you need to compare the chances of getting an out with three pitches thrown over the plate versus the chances of getting an out with a ground ball.

I would bet the chances--even for Nolan Ryan or Roger Clemens--of getting a strikeout with three balls thrown over the plate is less than 75 percent.

The issue, of course, is Anthony Reyes' chances of getting a strike out in a crucial situation in 2007, and the results are clear for anyone to see.

by Fred McTaggart on May 28, 2007 1:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Freel (Farney) got hammered in CF collision
He appears to have movement but is being taken out on a stretcher.

Maybe Griffey will get back in CF.

by enoscountry on May 28, 2007 1:52 PM EDT reply actions  

Failure to OBEY or failure to EXECUTE?
Is Reyes problem a failure to obey Dunc's tutilage or is it just a failure of execution (or both).  There seems to be conflicting data.

It has been noted that Reyes almost never shakes off the catcher's sign, this would seem to support that Reyes is obeying Dunc's orders but he just fails to execute.  However, if this is true, why would Bernie report (or comment) this:

"If there was an IQ test for pitching acumen -- he would flunk it.  He makes Marquis look like a Mensa member."

Also then why does Solanus' pitch data (below) indicate no trend towards the low part of the zone with men on or with men in scoring position?

               bases    men    w/
               empty    on     RISP
     zone 1:   4        6      6
     zone 2:   12       20     19
     zone 3:   43       35     35
     zone 4:   30       31     31
     zone 5:   11       8      8

I'd expect if he was obeying Dunc, then we'd see a trend to more pitches low in the zone with men on.  Something just doesn't make sense here.

by Zubin on May 28, 2007 2:00 PM EDT reply actions  

One possibility - he's just missing his spots
He could be throwing the pitch selection as it's called, but missing location -- high, mostly -- from over-throwing.

As for Bernie's comment, I'd hardly call it "reporting." He was asked directly in his forum what his impression of Reyes as a competitor were, and that was his immediate response. Seemed pretty hotheaded... not necessarily any reflection of insider knowledge or anyone in the organization's opinion of him.

by taiko on May 28, 2007 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you don't want to get depressed
Don't look at the lineup.

No Edmonds, Rolen, Duncan, Molina, Eckstein.

by enoscountry on May 28, 2007 2:28 PM EDT reply actions  

Does anyone see...
Mark Buehrle in a Cards uniform...  I think he will be a Cardinal in his career... why not now?? with free agency coming up the sox may be ready to deal??  

by bennythejet on May 28, 2007 2:33 PM EDT reply actions  

no
what's the point of giving up someone to get buehrle mid-season when we can just sign him as a free agent next year? esp. when our playoff chances are very slim as it is.

by Molina4MVP on May 28, 2007 2:38 PM EDT reply actions  

Ostensibly
you get him on the team now, and either negotiate an extension before the end of the season, or hope he likes it so much in the STL that he takes a "home town discount".  Either way, I assume the idea would be to prevent the increasingly bizarre run-up in price for free-agent pitchers in the off-season.

by sgfcards on May 28, 2007 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

For those who aren't paying attention
Rick Ankiel's 3-3 today with a double, 2 HRs, and 5 RBI.  He just got IBB'd with guys on 2nd and 3rd.  He was in a little slump, looks like he's breaking out in a big way...

by CardFaninVA on May 28, 2007 2:45 PM EDT reply actions  

Then Stavinoha hits a grand slam
Looks like it's a good day for the Memphis offense.  Usually is when a reliever (Hugo Castellanos) goes yard.

by CardFaninVA on May 28, 2007 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ankiel and Stavinhova
should both get ABs in September.

I guess I am late on this, but is Matt Pagnozzi Tom's son?

by enoscountry on May 28, 2007 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is this about Reyes or Duncan?
How many highly promising minor league pitchers have trouble making the grade in the major leagues? The A. Reyes story is so common around both leagues that it's hard to understand why it creates such a fuss on this board.

Are there that many people fervently excited about Reyes? Or is the issue Dave Duncan?

Of course, there are umpteen ways of being a good pitching coach, but none of these ways turns to fans on a message board to dictate who pitches for the team or how he goes about it.

Even if all the accusations against Dave Duncan were true--and I don't believe they are--the fact remains that his way has brought success--a post-season appearance nearly every year plus two pennants and a World Series championship. So far this year, the success has not been there, and he is doing what he thinks is right to fix it. I'd say he has earned that right.

by Fred McTaggart on May 28, 2007 2:45 PM EDT reply actions  

This might be the worst lineup of the year
/ crosses fingers
/ bargains with god for a win
Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 3:10 PM EDT reply actions  

interesting discussion everyone
my main point is this: the team has never let reyes rise or fall on his own terms. TLR's and DD's presumption is that he'll get killed if he pitches up in the zone --- but that theory has never really been put to the test, because they haven't let him pitch that way. if he pitched that way and their presumption proved out, then i'd be satisfied that the guy is a washout.

i don't think he'd be a world-beater, but i think if he pitched his own game he could be a league-average starter ---- which would make him incredibly valuable. league-avg starters get paid $10m a year these days.

maybe i'm wrong, and maybe he'd be worse than league average --- but until the theory is tested, we'll never know. and dave/tony won't test the theory.

by lboros on May 28, 2007 3:10 PM EDT reply actions  

Pitching on your own terms
Has any player even been allowed to break into the major league by playing on his own terms rather than what his manager and coaches believe is right for him? Should any player be allowed to rise or fall on his own terms? What is it about Reyes that means he should be treated so special?

In fact, I believe the issue of how Reyes pitches is more an issue for fans than it is for Reyes, who seems to be simply trying to recover velocity and command.

by Fred McTaggart on May 28, 2007 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

it doesn't require special treatment
for a coach to recognize a player's strengths and help him optimize those strengths. that's what i mean by "on his own terms." whitey herzog was a master of this. he judged young players based on what they could do, not what they couldn't do.

take a guy like adam dunn. one hitting coach tells him: "you'll never make it in this league taking such a big swing; you have to shorten your stroke, take the ball the other way, hit more singles and cut down on your strikeouts." another coach says: "hit me 40 homers and i'll live with the strikeouts. hit me 22 homers, and the strikeouts will get you sent back to buffalo."

the second hitting coach is letting the player rise or fall on his own terms. this does not require special treatment for the player. it does require a certain type of coaching skill.

by lboros on May 28, 2007 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

How do you know?
what has happened with Reyes' coaching. I have no idea what Dave Duncan has told him. If you do, what is the source of your information? And is that source trustworthy?

As for Whitey Herzog, I don't think he did what you are talking about at all. If so, why did he keep insisting that Ted Simmons was a weak defensive catcher when in fact he was among the best?

As for Adam Dunn, my view is that he is finally becoming a major league hitter because he is shortening his swing at times, cutting down on strikeouts and taking the ball the other way. You might not give that advice to Barry Bonds but you do give it to Adam Dunn. And I think Anthony Reyes is more comparable to Dunn (or to Geoff Jenkins) than to Bonds.

by Fred McTaggart on May 28, 2007 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

nice grab
by the Lud
Acquire some runs!

by madding on May 28, 2007 3:12 PM EDT reply actions  

Not counting us out,
but I don't like the concept of a bench-lineup to start off a series.
On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on May 28, 2007 3:14 PM EDT reply actions  

Game over
we won't score 2 runs today with this ridiculous lineup.
Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 28, 2007 3:17 PM EDT reply actions  

i cannot believe this season
nothing about this team makes sense

by johnstonburg on May 28, 2007 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

wow
at least Holliday is on both of my fantasy teams.
On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on May 28, 2007 3:17 PM EDT reply actions  

nuts
Holliday:

8-11 w/ 3HR v. Wells

Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 3:17 PM EDT reply actions  

agreed about today's lineup
this is an inexcusable lineup for a defending world series champion -- end of story.

by willievinceterry on May 28, 2007 3:21 PM EDT reply actions  

does anyone else think that ...
...part of the team's problems against LHP involves La Russa pulling half the starters every time we face one of them? He acts like LHP are kryptonite against LH hitters. It's pretty absurd. Taguchi continues to get way too many at bats with this team. He has no future and very little present.

by willievinceterry on May 28, 2007 3:23 PM EDT reply actions  

Yup
And why we failed to bring in any lefty mashing bench guys is beyond me.

by OCCardsFan on May 28, 2007 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think I'll be surprised
if the Cards get one hit off Francis today.
Acquire some runs!

by madding on May 28, 2007 3:24 PM EDT reply actions  

I'll be suprised if the Cardinals
force Francis to throw more than 75 pitches for his complete game no-hitter.
Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 28, 2007 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's pretty much inexcusable
to have Duncan out of the lineup two days in a row unless he's hurt.
Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 3:25 PM EDT reply actions  

Juan is BACK!
turning doubles into triples like he never left.
Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 28, 2007 3:28 PM EDT reply actions  

Sweet
then he lets a flyball bounce at his feet in foul territory.

He is on FIRE!

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 28, 2007 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Way to play it off the wall enJuan...
It's either gone or off the top off the wall so let's get as close the wall as possible.

by outraged on May 28, 2007 3:28 PM EDT reply actions  

Love seeing him go to the wall on balls he CAN'T
catch, but he won't get near the warning track on 2 out flyballs that bounce ON the warning track.
Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 28, 2007 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

don't know if you caught my
i can do that post abotu several cards...i have to say again..really walt i can do that call me
now not only a clever saying, but a team that plays in STL

by punchinjudy on May 28, 2007 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

lucky
lucky lucky lucky lucky lucky
Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 3:30 PM EDT reply actions  

Duncan and pitchers.
What would we have done had we traded for a guy like Randy Johnson?  What is we had signed Jason Schmidt or Barry Zito?  

Could Duncan have worked with any of those pitchers?  This whole, the hitters keep swinging and missing your pitches, thats bad.  Could you please make your pitches easier for the hitters to put the bat on?  Thats just dumb

Heck, even control guys like Glavin and Tudor were not sinkerballers.  

Popups are even better than groundouts in terms of getting outs.  Our offense shows us this every day, please take notes Dave.

by DriverZn on May 28, 2007 3:32 PM EDT reply actions  

saarloos optioned
worth claiming?...55% groundball rate, middling periphs...struggle with his command lately, but he's always seemed like a Dunc guy to me. ok, i'd rather them not but can see it happening.
Future Redbirds

by erik on May 28, 2007 3:33 PM EDT reply actions  

I don't see much difference between him
and what we already have.

At least there's some upside with Wellmeyer.

Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Really?
I can still remember when he was a prime prospect.
On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on May 28, 2007 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Seems like Bennett
hasn't started in a month....

by Petkovsek on May 28, 2007 3:33 PM EDT reply actions  

actually one of the pitt
games i thought
now not only a clever saying, but a team that plays in STL

by punchinjudy on May 28, 2007 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

he started
Kip's last outing.  he's Kip's personal catcher now, I guess.
Acquire some runs!

by madding on May 28, 2007 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like how
the one guy that gets a hit is a lefty that wouldn't have been in the lineup ordinarily.
Acquire some runs!

by madding on May 28, 2007 3:35 PM EDT reply actions  

You know your lineup sucks when
the pitcher is your second best hitter.
Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 3:36 PM EDT reply actions  

that was a horrible bunt, though
but a great play by the catcher.
On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on May 28, 2007 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rockies announcers talking
about how the Cards' are dead last in homers... and then cut to Duncan sitting on the bench.
Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 3:38 PM EDT reply actions  

It's amazing that David Eckstein makes
Miles arm at SS look 'strong'.
Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 28, 2007 3:41 PM EDT reply actions  

Hold on Kippers
be strong here.  Don't give him ANYTHING to center the bat with.
Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 28, 2007 3:45 PM EDT reply actions  

Yikes
Strike 1 - set up low and away, fastball in and up.

Buckle down.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 28, 2007 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wheew
Why are you throwing him fastball in the hitting zone?!?!?
Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 28, 2007 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Am I crazy
for thinking that J-Rod could be less bad than Wheel-O'-Suck we've been running out to RF?
Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 3:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Holliday is due
for some regression to the mean.
Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 3:47 PM EDT reply actions  

the best kind of ball to right
one where Juan barely has to move.
Acquire some runs!

by madding on May 28, 2007 3:47 PM EDT reply actions  

Taguchi
watching Extra Innings this year, it seems like every opposing team's announcers thinks Taguchi is the greatest player in the game.  I don't understand it.
Acquire some runs!

by madding on May 28, 2007 3:50 PM EDT reply actions  

yet our annoucners
make him sound like a scared 9 year old fielding the ball
now not only a clever saying, but a team that plays in STL

by punchinjudy on May 28, 2007 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

JI
with the first J-rod post I have seen in awhile...nice job
now not only a clever saying, but a team that plays in STL

by punchinjudy on May 28, 2007 3:51 PM EDT reply actions  

Well, he seems to have things striaghtened out
when you glance at his numbers.
Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Has J-Rod
Even been playing regularly down there?

Nick Stavinoha is making a case for a callup recently...

by El Hombre on May 28, 2007 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Anyone
Ready to start the Ankiel experiment?

by El Hombre on May 28, 2007 3:51 PM EDT reply actions  

give until July
Obviously Ankiel has all the natural talent in the world. the question is whether his development as hitter was retarded beyond repair from all that time spent pitching.

It would be the greatest if it succeeded.

Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

36 pitches through 4 innings
Love the 'Lefty Lineup', Tony.  How about we let the starters back in.  Maybe they'll atleast take 4 pitches.
Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 28, 2007 3:52 PM EDT reply actions  

They're not even trying
to work the pitch count.  Taguchi swinging on 2-0 and Spiezio flying out on the first pitch.

by CardFaninVA on May 28, 2007 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes
have Ankiel pitch and hit

by Petkovsek on May 28, 2007 3:53 PM EDT reply actions  

Wells is minimizing damage
it's a shame that even if he keeps this up, he won't get a win.  He's already give up the winning run.
Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 28, 2007 3:58 PM EDT reply actions  

Through 4 innings
Game hasn't even lasted a full hour

by Petkovsek on May 28, 2007 3:58 PM EDT reply actions  

Matt Pagnozzi
Matt is Tom's nephew.

by Rob H on May 28, 2007 3:59 PM EDT reply actions  

I wonder what it's like to be a Rockie fan.
I can think of a an origination that is more confused and aimless in the entire league.

...besides Pittsburgh.

Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 4:00 PM EDT reply actions  

Actually, I am a Rockies fan.
I really, really love the players, and really, really hate the management.
Sparks of Dementia Still Demented.

by Scarlet the Cardinal on May 28, 2007 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Look on the bright side
Hampton and Neagle are off the books, and Helton should be off payroll by 2137.
Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

actually
hampton is still on the rox books.

by sdesserman on May 28, 2007 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ankiel
I'm selfishly hoping he'll still be in Memphis in early August because they're in town (Portland) to play four games and I plan on try to catch a least two of them.
Acquire some runs!

by madding on May 28, 2007 4:00 PM EDT reply actions  

does anyone else think
TLR will be back next yr?
now not only a clever saying, but a team that plays in STL

by punchinjudy on May 28, 2007 4:02 PM EDT reply actions  

I hope not
But it would not surprise me

by DriverZn on May 28, 2007 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't
I believe both his and Jock's contracts are up after this year. My gut tells me if one leaves, the other will. Just a guess.

by saladdin69 on May 28, 2007 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hey, Rockies' Guy
There's a difference between being "masterful" and "Facing A Lineup That Consists of Pujols + 8 Guys Who Are AAAA Fodder."
Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 4:02 PM EDT reply actions  

This has to be the fastest start to any ballgame
I've ever watched. And I watched the Blanton/Washburn who's offense blows worse deathmatch earlier this year.
Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 4:03 PM EDT reply actions  

Great
The Rockies commentators are mocking us.
On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on May 28, 2007 4:04 PM EDT reply actions  

Yeah
they're a little cocky.  Not as bad as San Diego, but getting close.

by Big Red on May 28, 2007 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

I enjoyed the San Diego guys
form what I head of them.
Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

ankiel
don't get too excited unless 5th outfielders get you feeling all tingly. he's struck out 35 times to 8 walks. he has lots of raw power, but he can be shut down by good pitching. me thinks he's very much (not all) feasting on bottom feeders, AAA roster fillers like Ginter and Mike Smith. I'll get excited about Ankiel when he gets his walk rate up to the average range. Don't get me wrong, I'm a believer in him, but let's not get too excited about him yet.
Future Redbirds

by erik on May 28, 2007 4:07 PM EDT reply actions  

"he can be shut down by good pitching"
So can the rest of the bench, and at least Rick has better than a 1000 to 1 chance of going yard.

by craig3410 on May 28, 2007 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ludwick
tore up AAA, he hasn't done much so far in the bigs. I think he's more capable of Ankiel right now. I like Ankiel over Taguchi, I just hope folks temper their expectations of Ankiel with some reality, that's all.
Future Redbirds

by erik on May 28, 2007 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Willy
please bunt
please bunt
please bunt
please bunt
please bunt
please bunt
please bunt
please bunt
please bunt
please bunt
please bunt
please bunt
Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 4:10 PM EDT reply actions  

How bout a
well struck grounder to the wrong side of the infield?

by Big Red on May 28, 2007 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

set up by failed bunts
woo!
Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jeff Francis and Kaz Matsui
combine to produce a run....

by Petkovsek on May 28, 2007 4:16 PM EDT reply actions  

I don't know if anyone has noticed...
but Encarnacion is a bad at defense.
Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 4:16 PM EDT reply actions  

Enc
It really shouldn't be hard to throw out a pitcher running from second base to home. If you're not capable of doing that, please play a different position. Seriously.
On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on May 28, 2007 4:17 PM EDT reply actions  

Are you serious?
That throw was on the money.  Right on the plate.  Bennett missed it.

by Big Red on May 28, 2007 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Really?
Okay, well blame my MLB.tv feed then.

But still, there was no excuse for that whole play. Francis should've been out, and we should've been out of the inning.

On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on May 28, 2007 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Btw,
how bout blaming Kippers for allowing a double to the pitcher and a 2 out rbi hit to Kaz Matsui?

by Big Red on May 28, 2007 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

What?
My point is that that hit should not have been an RBI.
On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on May 28, 2007 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

100% Horrible
And what exact moment did this team start becoming the cubs?

by saladdin69 on May 28, 2007 4:17 PM EDT reply actions  

this game is soooo over
Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 4:18 PM EDT reply actions  

maybe there is something to W-L record after all
losers find a way to lose, and both reyes and wells have done plenty of that this year, poor run support or not. it's hard to tell which is the bigger headcase.

by willievinceterry on May 28, 2007 4:21 PM EDT reply actions  

I disagree Rockies' guy
LaRussa's bench couldn't be any stronger. See: lineup, starting.
Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 4:23 PM EDT reply actions  

I watch a lot of Rockies games
and the announcers drive me up the wall too. Besides being homers, they tend to make mistakes with names and, you know, facts.
Sparks of Dementia Still Demented.

by Scarlet the Cardinal on May 28, 2007 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Speaking as an unbiased obsever
Pujols is a more exciting player than Ichiro.
Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 4:26 PM EDT reply actions  

So-So got a hit.
Now Albert with an RBI chance

by Petkovsek on May 28, 2007 4:29 PM EDT reply actions  

tim for bob apodaka
to settle him down..one of the more fun names to say in baseball
Future Redbirds

by erik on May 28, 2007 4:29 PM EDT reply actions  

i saw this like three times...
before i realized you WEREN'T talking about kramers buddy bob sacamano on seinfeld, i watch entirely too much tv
Pujols is the greatest Cardinal in my lifetime.

by bigcardsfan5 on May 28, 2007 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can't think of any reason in the world
to pitch to Albert.

...besides doing do for my entertainment.

Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 4:29 PM EDT reply actions  

Expect a steal
Taguchi's on and Albert's batting.

by enoscountry on May 28, 2007 4:29 PM EDT reply actions  

I don't think the strikezone shrinks
so much as Pujols and Bonds have good pitch recognition skills.
Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 4:32 PM EDT reply actions  

whaddya know
another opportunity wasted

by Petkovsek on May 28, 2007 4:32 PM EDT reply actions  

It's easier to score runs
when your cleanup hitter can slug .400.
Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 4:34 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm late on this one
But I think Wellemeyer to the rotation is Dave Duncan's "Fuck everything, we're doing five blades" moment.
Pujols < .300 (it worked for .200)

by joker24 on May 28, 2007 4:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Lineup analysis tool says:
Runs per game for above lineup: 3.508

by saladdin69 on May 28, 2007 4:38 PM EDT reply actions  

We escaped
whaaa?
Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 4:47 PM EDT reply actions  

Here
Comes Ludwicks first jack as a card!

by El Hombre on May 28, 2007 4:51 PM EDT reply actions  

Rockies
how is it that they are a sub-.500 team?  is their pitching really that bad?
Acquire some runs!

by madding on May 28, 2007 4:52 PM EDT reply actions  

Its all relative.
The Cardinals offense makes most any pitching staff look pretty good.

by Zubin on May 28, 2007 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Their pitching is good.
The starters, that is. The bullpen is atrocious, and the management is inept.
Sparks of Dementia Still Demented.

by Scarlet the Cardinal on May 28, 2007 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

My Worst Dream...
has just been realized. My MLB.tv feed just dropped and when I tried to start it up again it would only play the Dick's Sporting Goods commercial, had to restart my browser to get back to the game. Almost canceled my subscription right then...

by davethebutcher on May 28, 2007 5:00 PM EDT reply actions  

Wells has had enough
And we've had enough of him.

by Petkovsek on May 28, 2007 5:05 PM EDT reply actions  

can't blame this loss on wells...
it's our terrible manager and sorry ass offense's fault.
Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on May 28, 2007 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good to see "Pitch to contact" working
The rockies are making a lot of contact with the ball.

by DriverZn on May 28, 2007 5:06 PM EDT reply actions  

tony
i think tony doesnt want kip to do well, he leaves him in too long and gives him a lineup that cant hit.  i think jimmy and dunc couldve managed to hit a lefty as well as everyone else

by roscoe on May 28, 2007 5:08 PM EDT reply actions  

Rockies' Guys
Taveras and Matsui suck. Look at who you're playing, that's why it is coming together.
Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 5:08 PM EDT reply actions  

TLR gets another loss
puts out an inferior offensive and defensive lineup today.  You can't do both and expect results.  Kip Wells isn't Chris Carpenter or Jeff Suppan.  You can't get 'cute' with the lineup and expect good results with shakey pitching.

That's what, 5 games that hang around Tony's neck?

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 28, 2007 5:09 PM EDT reply actions  

Are comments like this
all about Duncan?  Rolen and Eckstein are hurt.  Isn't Yadi entitled to a day off?  Taguchi has been better vs. lefties than Edmonds since about 2004, maybe 2005.  To blame this one on LaRussa is really stretching it.

by chuckb on May 28, 2007 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is Ludwick better for his career against lefties
too?

Edmonds and Duncan sits.  You realize that we have HR totals that go like this:

Duncan - 9
Pujols - 8
Edmonds - 3
Rolen - 2
So, Spiezio, Wells, Eckstein, Molina, Wilson

Eckstein, Wilson and Rolen are injured. = 4 HRs

Duncan, Edmonds, Molina all sat. = 13 HRs

Pujols, Speizio, So, Wells played. = 11 HRs.

We sat 13 HRs on the bench at Coors Field.

People are entitled to days off, just not ALL of them on the same damn day.

All Colorado had to do was get Pujols out and the offense was shut down.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 28, 2007 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Actually
for his career, Edmonds is better vs. lefties than Ludwick.  But I don't think (and surely you don't either) that Edmonds' career numbers are very good indicator of his hitting today, particularly against lefties.  In fact, I would say that Edmonds is probably the worst hitter on our team vs. lefties (save Bennett) -- it's only close w/ Kennedy and Duncan.

I really think you can reasonably make the argument that Molina and Duncan should have played, rather than Ludwick and Bennett.  Molina got a day off -- it's hardly the reason we lost.  And Ludwick is probably better vs. Francis than Duncan, considering the fact that Francis has a career OPS+ against of 106 vs. righties and 74 vs. lefties.  

Your contention, I believe, was that it was LaRussa's fault that the Cardinals lost today b/c the lineup he fielded had, basically, very little chance of winning.  I'd say that, with the exception of Bennett for Molina, it was the best he could reasonably field given the injuries to Eckstein and Rolen.  I'll grant you that it was a bad lineup, but it wasn't LaRussa's fault.

by chuckb on May 28, 2007 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's that...
Wells to 2-9...

For the record, Mike Maroth went to 1-10 on May 28th, 2003. Given the absence of any depth in this organization, and the fact that he's on a one-year contract, I see Wells making around 33 starts for the Cards this year. That means he has to take the loss in 11 of his remaining 22 starts to lose 20. I think he's an even shot to do that...

by guayzimi on May 28, 2007 5:10 PM EDT reply actions  

Don't look now -
but his current pace puts him right at 30 losses.

So ... 20 is certainly something workable.

by Urban Pawnee on May 28, 2007 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah,
I just noticed that.  Kip did a great with the plan-he pitched to contact.  The Rockies have 11 hits and 6 runs.  Great job!  Keep on pitching to contact.  Oh, and I like the AAA line-up out there today. Great fielding! I'm going to turn on the Twins/White Sox game and watch a major league game.....I'm done, I can't stand to watch any more...

by jillsinmo on May 28, 2007 5:11 PM EDT reply actions  

I'll ask again....
...can the Cards win 73 games to avoid a 90 loss season?

by Ignatius J Reilly on May 28, 2007 5:11 PM EDT reply actions  

Crap, So goes yard
And now they are drawing up a contract for 08

by DriverZn on May 28, 2007 5:22 PM EDT reply actions  

We scored?
Wait.
Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on May 28, 2007 5:22 PM EDT reply actions  

Gooch
now he will probably start every game this series.  just watch...
Acquire some runs!

by madding on May 28, 2007 5:24 PM EDT reply actions  

Over the last year and a third
Edmonds is 20-127 w/ 4 HR's vs. lefties.  His avg/obp/slg vs. lefties is .157/.244/.273 -- a craptastic OPS of .517.  He has 43 K's in those 127 AB's, more than 1 in every 3 AB's.

Taguchi is 56-204 w/ 1 HR prior to today.  His avg/obp/slg vs. lefties is .275/.353/.368 -- an OPS of .721.  Taguchi has struck out 26 times in those 204 AB's -- 1 for every 7.8 AB's.

It's difficult to argue for Edmonds over Taguchi vs. lefties.  

by chuckb on May 28, 2007 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

What about Edmonds over Ludwick?
Small sample sizes are fun, but Encarnacion vs lefties has a higher batting average, but lower OBP and SLG than Edmonds.
Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 28, 2007 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Um, you're half right ... for this year
this year (all of 20 AB's for Juan), Juan's obp vs. lefties is .286 and his slg .250 vs. Edmonds .278 and .258 -- for this year.  Once you factor in their 2006 numbers as well, you negate that "small sample size" that you mocked.  In 177 AB's last year, Juan's obp/slg was .346/.492 vs. lefties.  Granted, it's not a full season but it is enough AB's to say w/ a virtual certainty that Encarnacion is a better hitter vs. lefties than Edmonds is.  You're not seriously trying to convince anyone that Edmonds is better vs. lefties than Juan, are you?  

by chuckb on May 28, 2007 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

God
Finally saw that Dick's commercial that has sickened you all so much...  I think I threw up a little in my mouth...
"That's baseball, and it's my game. Y'know, you take your worries to the game, and you leave 'em there. You yell like crazy for your guys." - Humphrey Bogart

by iron duke75 on May 28, 2007 5:27 PM EDT reply actions  

Tony was so damn proud of his terrible lineup
that he made only 1 change to it all game.
Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 28, 2007 5:37 PM EDT reply actions  

What a pathetic display...
the seven hitters around Pujols were absolutely the most hopeless bunch to wear Cardinal red since Curt Ford and Bob Horner donned the uni in '88. There's no excuse to have all those guys on the roster, let alone play them simultaneously.

This was some kind of game by LaRussa to overexpose them so he could send them all packing.

by guayzimi on May 28, 2007 5:44 PM EDT reply actions  

Walt put the roster together
and it's not like LaRussa took a tire iron to Rolen's head and Eckstein's back.  Blaming Walt makes more sense than blaming Tony.

by chuckb on May 28, 2007 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

He should've played...
Duncan and Molina against Francis, and he should have at least one lefty masher - Craig Wilson, Jose Cruz Jr, whoever - on the roster for days like this.

by guayzimi on May 28, 2007 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Career OPS + against for Francis
lefties -- 74
righties -- 106

Considering the fact that Duncan is, at best, inexperienced against lefties and, at worst, bad, Ludwick was probably the better option.  And no one can possibly argue that Molina isn't a better hitter than Bennett, but that difference wasn't worth 4 runs today.  And catchers are going to need a day off every once in a while.  It's not unreasonable for Molina to sit today.

by chuckb on May 28, 2007 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Miles & Taguchi did their part...
Going 4 for 8, indeed, both times they strung together their hits. It was the 7 other guys, including Pujols, that didn't come up with anything. Going 1 for 24

by DiscoJer on May 28, 2007 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pujols
is going to fail more times than not in lineups like this.  He will try to carry the team each time he comes up and expand the strikezone.
Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 28, 2007 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Then he needs to learn not to expand the K zone.
It seems to me that it is almost never worth it for a hitter to "expand the zone".  Even if you still consider Albert nominaly a .350 hitter, he can't be better than a .250 hitter when expanding his zone.  I'd take my chances with a walk to Albert and letting someone (even) like Taguchi or Miles bat with Albert at first.

by Zubin on May 28, 2007 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Because taking the walk
and letting Miles or Taguchi drive him in has worked out so well in the past.
Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 28, 2007 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Defending the line up
First off, it isn't LaRussa's or Jockety's fault that Eckstein's back was hurt or Rolen hurt his head yesterday.  Miles at short and Speezio at third are completely defensible based on those injuries.

Secondly, as someone else stated both Miles and Taguchi did more than their share.  Both had two hits; Miles a double and Taguchi a home run.  

Third, quite frankly Taguchi is now a much better hitter against lefties than Edmonds.  Until Edmonds comes around at all against lefties, no one should bitch about Taguchi starting.  

           avg  obp  slg  ops
Taguchi   .255 .327 .298 .625
Edmonds   .161 .278 .258 .536

Fourth, Bennett was started becuse the last time Wells won, he was catching.  It wasn't a bad to test the hypothesis that Bennett might call a better game than Molina.

The only bad line up decission I can see is not playing Duncan, but even then Duncan's line against lefties is nothing to get excited about while Ludwick's screams small sample size.

           avg  obp  slg  ops
Duncan    .214 .233 .357 .590
Ludwick   .158 .158 .211 .369

by Zubin on May 28, 2007 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

How is Edmonds supposed to get better against LHP
if he doesn't get to play.  He played against Duke last week, went 0 for 2 with a walk.

Jim Edmonds shouldn't be getting back to back days off like this.

It isn't so much the 'individual pieces' but more the 'sum of the parts'.  A lineup that has Taguchi, Bennett, Ludwick, Miles, Spiezio in it should not happen.  You've taken bench players and put them in every position possible.  

It simply shouldn't happen.  Rolen and Eckstein being hurt doesn't help things, but if the team was willing to put an injured Jim Edmonds at 1st base when Albert Pujols went down, I think he can get over his case of 'lefties' for one day and move Taguchi to left.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 28, 2007 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Really?
"Ludwick's screams small sample size." - 19 at bats in 16 games
"Until Edmonds comes around at all against lefties" - 31 at bats in 41 games

Isn't that a little contradictory? How can you expect Edmonds to excel when going up against lefties if he is never given the chance?

In 05 he raked lefties. In 06 He struggled against them, but he only had about 100 at bats. We have found better ways to waste 100 at bats than to use them to see what Edmonds may be capable of THIS year if he faces them regularly.

by El Hombre on May 28, 2007 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Edmonds is 37 this year and
he is on the downsize of his career.  Do you really think he is going to develop now?  


      ab   avg   obp   slg   ops
2006  96  .156  .198  .281  .479
2007  31  .161  .278  .258  .536

Yes, this year there is a small sample size, but given performance last year and the general trend of his career and the near universal nature of the platoon split, I think it is fair to say at this point, Taguchi is a better option against lefties.
 

by Zubin on May 29, 2007 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

I guess..
when you have someone telling you you can't do something (LaRussa benching Edmonds against lefties) you are going to struggle.

Just because Edmonds has not proven he can still hit lefties in his past 130 at bats against them is not enought for me to say he is done facing lefties.

I think his career numbers against lefties say he deserves the chance. If he is sitting because he is old and needs a rest that is one thing but to pay him 9 mil to only play against righties is ridiculous.

by El Hombre on May 29, 2007 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Look at Edmonds line against righties:
ab    avg   obp   slg   ops
104  .250  .307  .346  .653

If he has a .653 ops against righties do you really expect him to do better against lefties?
Now I do realize he had a reverse split in 2005, but over the course of his career he follows the expected pattern:

      avg   obp   slg   ops  
RHP  .300  .396  .568  .964
LHP  .256  .337  .441  .778

So even if you think he is an .800 ops guy (which seems to me to be a stretch the way he has played this year) and if he follows his career platoon split (also a stretch based on trends), he is somewhere between a .600 and .650 ops guy.  That if you haven't noticed is where Taguchi is now.  So at best Edmonds is as good as Taguchi against lefties.

Now, even if you think he is coming around now, don't you think the 1 day of rest every 5 games he gets on average is good for him at 37 years old?

by Zubin on May 29, 2007 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

It has been 2
not 1.  He sat on Sunday and he sat today.

We lost both games.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on May 29, 2007 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

I was speaking moreso on average...
But since we are counting, Jimmy has played 41/48 games this year, or 85% of games.  (I don't have stats on how many he has started, so if you can find it it would be educational for me.)  He has 151 plate appearances (ab+bb+sh+sf+hbp), or 3.6 per game he played in.

If we look at Jimmys stats over the three previous years he had 4.0 pa/game in '04 and '05.  (In '06 he had 3.7 pa/g)

So if Jimmy played 80% of the time as I suggest and averages 4pa/ game, he should have 154 pa.  Instead he has 151 pa.  Maybe he'll play the next 4 games in a row to compensate?

================

As for your comments about losing the last two games, Taguchi has gone 1/4 and 2/4 with a home run the past two games.  Again, taking everything together, playing him over Edmonds isn't hurting us.
   

by Zubin on May 29, 2007 2:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Wait... that doesn't make sense.
The 80% should be 80% of his historical playing time.  To consider 80% of possible playing time, look at the 2007 cardinals overall:  They are averaging 4.1 pa/g per line-up spot.  Albert leads the club in PA (208); his PA/g is 4.3.  So if we assume Jimmy "should" get ~80% playing time and there are ~4.2 pa/ game for his lineup spots, he should have 161 pa.

Based on his history this seems a bit high, especially since over 30% of pa have come against lefties this year.  But maybe Jimmy "should have" started one more game.  In anycase, its pretty damn close, too close IMO to complain about.

by Zubin on May 29, 2007 3:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ludwick
Recent games have made it clear why Ludwick always fails when he is promoted to the majors.  He can't hit or even recognize an off-speed pitch to save his life.  The pitchers keep throwing them and he keeps waving at them.  To call him an AAAA player is an undeserved compliment.  AAA is about right.  It's time he returned.  Stavinoha time?

by MikeG on May 28, 2007 6:01 PM EDT reply actions  

The Cardinals are now 2-18
when either Kip Wells or Anthony Reyes starts....

by Petkovsek on May 28, 2007 6:13 PM EDT reply actions  

On the bright side we are
18-11 when anyone else (mainly Looper, Wainer, or Thompson) starts, right?

by Zubin on May 28, 2007 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Anyone having the feeling
That we're we're finishing up the month and we're right back where we started?

by Big Red on May 28, 2007 7:07 PM EDT reply actions  

ugh
yes, though im still encouraged by the happenings of last week.

by stlcardinalsfang on May 28, 2007 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

lbros
you stated that they have 3 releif pitchers I'm assuiming AW is one? yes last year he was but in the minors he was actually a starter correct? I believe he was a started converted to a releiver back to a starter?

I know i'm picking at stupid stuff but at this poitn it beats..promote J-rod, ankielor Burn Dunc at the stake...

now not only a clever saying, but a team that plays in STL

by punchinjudy on May 28, 2007 7:57 PM EDT reply actions  

Not counting AW
Brad Thompson, Braden Looper and now Todd Wellemeyer.

by sgfcards on May 28, 2007 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

oh my bad
i thought thompson was a starter in the minors as well? i guess whatthey did in the minors doesnt count as we are all finding out
now not only a clever saying, but a team that plays in STL

by punchinjudy on May 28, 2007 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

plus i completly
forgot about him
now not only a clever saying, but a team that plays in STL

by punchinjudy on May 28, 2007 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

interesting thread on stl
i rarely go there but was interested to see what they had to say about Reyes...http://www.stltoday.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=458768 read the first page of this post interesting to say the least
now not only a clever saying, but a team that plays in STL

by punchinjudy on May 28, 2007 9:26 PM EDT reply actions  

Mike Marshall has a PhD!?
Wow, I'd like to read about how he did it (presumably after his pitching career was over).

by Zubin on May 29, 2007 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

i was at the game today
and have been at about 90% of the cardinal games played in denver since the inception of the rox club.  

this was one of the most frustrating that i've been to.  this was a lifeless team with a lifeless manager putting a lifeless lineup on the field.  i turned to my friend during ludwick's first ab and mentioned that he's due for a hr.  after watching him swing helplessly and cluelessly, i'm pretty sure that his next hr will come at aaa.  

one and maybe two regular starters (apu, and a combination of miles/kennedy).  jenc clearly demonstrated today why he shouldn't be in the starting lineup.  i'm not even sure why bennett wears a glove as most of the pitches that get there drop to the ground.  wells certainly didn't pitch great, but he deserved better.  the aaaa defense behind him betrayed him on numerous ocassions.  bennett certainly failed to catch enc's weak and up-the-line throw on the run that francis scored.  

i'm supposed to go back wed. and thur. and have tix, but am not even sure that i want to.

by sdesserman on May 28, 2007 11:11 PM EDT reply actions  

Reyes etc
I never get a chance to log in during the game, its funny that I even bother to post at the end of 265 previous posts....so why bother?.... LOL!

Because I dont think Reyes has the mental resolve and ability to focus on every pitch over a 100/120 pitch count, thru 6+ innings, thru 35+ starts a season no matter WHAT pitches he actually throws. DD is gonna blame it on anything but this aspect of the game...mechanics, out-pitches, pitch election, etc...but at the MLB level, its as much the abilty to go out and "be fine" with 98% of the pitches you CAN make over a lot of consecutive mound appearances over the season that make you a good (but maybe not great) major league pitcher. The rest is being lucky when you're not "fine"! To be "great" requires even more of the mental intangibles. Fear plays a small factor, its for sure no batter fears Reyes in any way...especially not when he starts folding up on the mound with guys on base and the heart of the line-up on deck.

There are guys with a ton of natural, physical talent with good stuff that come up the ladder because they're great atheletes, but dont have the instincts, the total concentration or gut level resolve to make good pitches one after another... they leave the game every day or stay in the minors forever. Then there are guys that have practically zero atheletic abilty outside of stamina and durability, but have all the "other" stuff that can win 250-300 games in a career.

...at this point I dont see Reyes being one of the guys with the the "other" stuff it takes to be a consistent MLB starter. Maybe someday, but its a stretch. This guy is still at USC in his head. Life for a MLB picher is a hard one. I agree that he should have his chance to be terrible and have a shot with another team if it doesnt work out here, but its not gonna happen under the current regime.

Pitching, base running and defense!

by cardschinmusic on May 29, 2007 5:44 AM EDT reply actions  

Reyes etc
oopss...pitcher of course, not picher. After checking my post, I realized the word "control" should probably have been mentioned as one of the mental intangbles, the hardest aspect of it all.
Pitching, base running and defense!

by cardschinmusic on May 29, 2007 5:50 AM EDT reply actions  

Didn't get a chance to comment as was traveling
...all day yesterday - however...

Your comment: first of all, the best chance to minimize damage is not a ground ball; it's a strikeout.

I disagree. Immediately in front of the passage you quote, came the following passage, "Opponents were hitting .200 against him with the bases empty compared to .346 with runners on base, and .347 with a .694 slugging percentage with runners in scoring position."

It would appear that while a strikeout may generally we a great way to avoid damage, the pitcher must actually be capable of earning a strikeout. If Reyes has inconsistent command of the pitches he would need in order to induce a strikeout, the result will never occur and more damage will occur.

"A combination of poor run support and inconsistent command of his curveball...."

Your comment: reyes is not a groundball pitcher. never has been. he's a strikeout/flyball pitcher.

It's possible making him pitch as a groundball pitcher has made him inconsistent when trying to rely on striking out a batter, but regardless, Reyes does not appear to have a future with this ball club (as long as Duncan is pitching coach). Just because he may be more comfortable pitching as a strikeout/flyball pitcher doesn't mean he's good at it. If a pitcher cannot locate those pitches, they'll give up home runs in bunches and finish their career in AAA.

by jomfa on May 29, 2007 8:47 AM EDT reply actions  

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