reyes and RISP

by lboros on May 25, 2007 10:01 AM EDT in News Comment 62 comments

the winless anthony reyes has his best shot at a victory tonight, pitching at home against the punchless nationals. reyes' best outing of the year came in just such a start --- at home against a weak-hitting team (the rockies) on may 7. the nats are scoring only 3.6 runs a game, worse even than the cardinals (3.64), and they're nearly as bad on the road (3.7 rpg) as they are in their run-stifling home ballpark (3.4).

a few of us were discussing reyes recently, mulling over an article about reyes' incredibly low rate of stranding runners. when guys get on base against him, they score. not surprisingly, reyes has a pronounced situational split: he gets hit much harder when there are men on base against him, and especially when they're in scoring position.

	bases empty	men on	w/ RISP
avg	.196	.319	.318
obp	.255	.372	.360
slg	.324	.580	.682
ops	.579	.952	1.042

so we were wondering: what gives? could it be that reyes loses some juice off his fastball when pitching out of the stretch? maybe he's tipping his pitches? i offered another possible explanation: "i wonder if he starts nibbling with his off-speed stuff when there are men on base, falls into hitters' counts and has to groove fastballs. we're compiling our pitch-selection charts for the first 1/4 of the season, and if that pattern exists we should be able to spot it."

the pattern exists --- most emphatically. as you all may recall, a group of devoted volunteers have been dutifully charting every pitch thrown by a cardinal pitcher this season: coding for pitch type, speed, location, and about a gazillion other factors. our pitch-charter for anthony reyes' starts is Solanus (who you probably recall from his front-page post on tuesday about the Challenge Rating System). i aggregated his charts this morning and did a little quick analysis in Excel, breaking down reyes' pitch selection by situation. have a gander --- these are percentages:

	bases empty	men on	w/ RISP
fastball	74	63	59
curve	17	21	21
changeup	9	15	20

with nobody on base, he pumps that fastball in there 3/4 of the time --- but when guys get on base against him he turns increasingly to his off-speed stuff. the trend is even more pronounced on the first pitch of the at-bat:

	bases empty	men on	w/ RISP
fastball	75	60	53
curve	19	27	26
changeup	6	13	21

when pitching with men in scoring position, reyes starts nearly half of his at-bats with an off-speed pitch --- and, curiously enough, is more apt to throw a first-pitch curveball (his 3d-best pitch) than a first-pitch changeup. reyes had one of the most effective changeups in baseball last season. the heavy reliance on the curve to start out those critical at-bats is all the more curious because he struggles to throw that pitch for strikes --- just 53 percent of the time in 2007, according to our charts. that helps explain why reyes throws a first-pitch strike only 55 percent of the time --- below the league average --- with men in scoring position. with the bases empty, reyes is an above-average strike-thrower (62 percent).

when reyes does go to the fastball in RISP situations, he apparently relies more than ever on his four-seamer. since the 2-seamer and 4-seamer can be difficult to distinguish on tv, we're not even trying to code them differently --- a fastball gets coded as a fastball, never mind the grip. however, we are charting pitch speed and location, and therein lies the tale. pitch location gets coded on a 5-tier vertical scale --- zone 1 is a ball high, zone 2 is a high strike, zone 3 is at the waist, zone 4 is at the knees, and zone 5 is a ball low. looking only at reyes' fastball, here are the zone percentages in each situation:

	bases empty	men on	w/ RISP
zone 1	4	6	6
zone 2	12	20	19
zone 3	43	35	35
zone 4	30	31	31
zone 5	11	8	8

with men on base, reyes is more prone to elevate his fastball into zones 1 and 2 --- that's the 4-seamer. consistent with this finding, reyes' fastball gains velocity with men on base:

	bases empty	men on	w/ RISP
90+ mph	66	73	78
89- mph	34	27	22
avg speed	90.2	90.6	90.8

with the bases empty, only 66 percent of reyes' fastballs are above 90 mph, but with RISP that proportion rises to 78 percent --- and the average speed is more than half an mph faster. faster fastball, higher fastball --- 4-seamer.

so let's put this all together. with nobody on base, reyes pounds the strike zone with his fastball and gets batters out. when he gets into trouble, he ditches the fastball and turns to his off-speed stuff, which causes him to fall behind in counts; when he does throw a fastball, it's more likely to be a) a 4-seamer, and b) a hitter's count.

what to do? a few possibilities right off the top:

stay with the same pattern, but execute it better. just get the curve over; hitters aren't looking for it, so the pitch doesn't have to be perfect.
attack with the 4-seamer early in the count. match strength against strength: hitters will be up there looking for a fastball, so give them one and see what they do with it. reyes locates that pitch very well; the onus will be on him to hit the corners and keep hitters from squaring that pitch up.
attack with the 2-seamer. hitters are looking for a fastball, but not that fastball; if reyes can get it over and keep it down, he may keep guys off-balance. the danger, of course, is that if he throws a sinker that doesn't sink, the ball's apt to be hit a long way.

personally, i'd like to see them take option 2: when in danger, go to your best pitch. the cardinals have reyes taking the exact opposite approach --- they have pitching away from hitters' strengths (avoiding the fastball) but also pitching away from his own strength. when he finally does go to the fastball, he can't be as fine with the pitch because he's already behind in the count.

i'll be paying attention to his pitch selection tonight when men get on base against him.

as long as we're on the subject of young pitchers with good fastballs, derrick goold has an interesting article up today about adam ottavino and the two-seamer. you may recall that i talked to adam about that very subject last year, in a piece i titled "the indoctrination of adam." it sounds as if ottavino, like reyes before him, is not swallowing his medicine very cooperatively.

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I hate reading articles like that about Ott

i just find it very frustrating. I wonder where the indoctrination comes from in the front office? jock, luhnow, dd, tlr? I'm all for getting groundball outs but not at the expense of the pitcher's strengths. They just seem so damn insistant on that 2-seam fastball. Is there any reason why they can't preach "throw the 4-seam low in the zone" ? frustrating. . .

re: charting pitches. I think that information is very telling of Reyes. It's not necessarily his stuff, it's his approach although, I'd like to see the mph higher. If he is still throwing the fastball in the low-90s, however, that seems like he's lost a little velocity.

by azruavatar on May 25, 2007 10:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It seems to me...

Dennis Martinez, Lilliquist, Duncan, La Russa et al are guys that know what works in the majors and what doesn't.

Maybe this 21-year-old know-it-all should listen when Lilliquist tells him that the pitches that made him successful in college and in the low minors aren't going to get it done in the majors. Ottavino should be focusing on achieving future success with St.Louis, not current success in Florida.

by guayzimi on May 25, 2007 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Martinez, Lilliquist, Duncan, La Russa et al

are guys who are very set on having their pitchers pitch one way in the majors that works. I think these statements like 'the four-seamer is the kind of pitch that "gets whacked" in the majors' are bullshit that they shove down these kids throats. There are plenty of pitchers that throw a four-seam fastball as their regular pitch. Jason Schmidt immediately comes to mind. Those pitchers may have slightly higher HR rates but they often compensate by getting more strikeouts and fewer base runners.

The idea of pitching low in the zone to induce weak grounders isn't without merit, but some pitchers just aren't capable of that. If every pitcher could get by with just a 2 seam fastball, we wouldn't have knuckleballers or submarine deliveries that seem to rise up, or wicked curves and sliders. I think this obsession with 2-seam fastballs is bumpkiss that is retarding some of our players development.

I think ottavino should be focused on finding his strength as a pitcher. If he really needs to make adjustments to his pitching repetoire, he'll figure that out. What they are doing is taking a method that works (4-seam, strikeout) and forcing these kids to use a method that isn't working for them (2-seam, contact). I wouldn't listen to them either if that was the case.

by azruavatar on May 25, 2007 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

what I took from Lilliquist's statement is that not all 94 mph four seamers get whacked, just the one Ottavino throws. Maybe I mis-read.

In any case, it just struck me that this kid thinks the best way to move forward is to go back to what worked in college. That seems like bad judgment on his part.

As for submariners, I thought they all sucked...

by guayzimi on May 25, 2007 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

not to be a grammer nazi

but the way the quote is worded it's "the 4-seamer" that's a definite article for a pitch. It doesn't imply ownership by anyone. If they, meant Ott's 4-seamer, they should have said "his 4-seamer".

It's obviously difficult to take connotative meaning from written words but they didn't say it was just Ott's 4-seamer.

by azruavatar on May 25, 2007 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not to be a spelling Nazi ...

grammar!

Irony 1, azruavatar 0

by dontEATnachos on May 25, 2007 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

lol - classic

by azruavatar on May 25, 2007 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"of course it's company policy

never to imply ownership in the event of a 4-seamer. always use the indefinite article, "a four-seamer", never "your four-seamer".

sorry, I couldn't resist ;)

Don't Panic!!!

by SleepyCA on May 25, 2007 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

nice

by johnstonburg on May 25, 2007 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

amen, azru --- and i would also add this

lilliquist might be right that ottavino can't advance if his only weapon is the 94 mph heater. but there are two ways you can confront that problem; one would be to build around the 94 mph heater and develop complementary pitches that make it more effective ---- such as a slider, a changeup, or even a 2-seamer. you keep the pitcher's natural core strength, and you develop other pitches that support it.

the cardinals are taking another approach --- ie, actively discouraging guys (reyes and ottavino, anyway) from pitching to their natural strength. on the contrary, they're telling the pitcher: "your natural strength is a weakness." instead of introducing new pitches as complements to support the bread-n-butter pitch, the cards introduce new pitches and tell the kid: "this is now your main pitch."

i could understand it if the cardinals took the first approach. i don't understand why they take the second one.

by lboros on May 25, 2007 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well said LB

I've often wondered why the approach was to force the alteration, rather than build a better repetoire around the natural strengh.

I might not be completely accurate on this, but if memory serves me right, I think this topic was touched on (very lightly) in TLR's book, and they never really answered it. Just gave the reasons that "you pitch to contact," "the 4-seam fastball will get whacked in the majors," and "this is now your main pitch, throw the 2-seamer." It would appear that, so far as the book reveals, this approach (the second that you mention) is pushed by Tony and Duncan. But as I said, I might not be completely accurate in my memory here.. just what I recall.

I'd go so far as to say the first approach you mentioned would be the BETTER approach, in many aspects: player development, player/coach/manager relations, etc.

Duncan 4 Cleanup

by SmashedAtoms on May 25, 2007 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ditto

Can't you have the four seamer plus other pitches to complement? Can't Reyes benefit from setting guys up with low in the zone strikes using the 2 seamer and change and then put them away with a high riding four seamer?

Sure, don't start hitters off with the high hard straight one, but as part of a repetoire, it should be successful.

by OCCardsFan on May 25, 2007 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who's call?

Who's fault is the pitch selection. I haven't noticed Reyes shaking off the catcher much.

So, is it Duncan's game plan? Is it his primary catcher Bennett's fault? Molina has caught him a few times also. Is there a difference in pitch selection between the two? If not, I'd call it Duncan's plan.

Personally, I attribute it to a continuence of trying to make the pitcher mold to the plan instead of developing a specific plan for a pitcher's strengths.

by RedbirdRay on May 25, 2007 10:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i agree w your conclusion Ray

i think it's duncan's plan --- and a continuation of the attempt to get reyes to adapt to their philosophy, rather than adapting their philosophy to his abilities.

by lboros on May 25, 2007 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Duncan's plan calls for first-pitch curveballs?

It seems that Reyes is deliberately mixing up his pitch selection to fool hitters, to pitch away from contact, with runners on. The increased use of every pitch but the two-seamer is evident from your analysis. How does that jibe with Duncan's philosophy?

Your decription of the things Reyes does with bases empty -- "pound the strikezone (low) and gets batters out" -- is classic Duncan mantra. Could this be the opposite problem, where Reyes loses faith in the gameplan as soon as someone get on, and starts going to his secondary stuff?

Also, we don't have the benefit of knowing what the other pitchers are doing with men on. If we take Looper as the example of a guy who has wholeheartedly drank the Duncan kool-ade and who has no desire to abandon the plan, how does his situational pitching compare?

by taiko on May 25, 2007 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

we should really take notice tonight

of Reyes' behavior when a runner gets on base. How often does he shake off the catcher? What does he throw when he does shake off the catcher? Then we can speculate why, if he's not shaking off the catcher, is he throwing a first-pitch curveball w/ a runner on base (or whatever)?

It strikes me that Duncan's plan would be to throw the 2 seamer w/ a runner on 1st. That pitch seems to lend itself more to the DP. I think taiko's probably right -- that Reyes gets uncomfortable w/ a runner(s) on base and is more apt to scrap the game plan.

As for Looper, I'm the one charting him and I'd be willing to bet that he throws a greater % of fastballs than any other pitcher on the staff. He throws more off-speed pitches to the best hitters in the other lineup and almost exclusively fastballs to others. I'd be surprised if the pattern is any different w/ runners on base -- sinkers to the regular/bad hitters in the lineup, fastball/splitter to the best hitters in the lineup.

by chuckb on May 25, 2007 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looper

Interestingly enough, Looper has the exact opposite situational split as Reyes this year:

With bases empty: .302/ .367/ .405
WIth runners on: [b].191/ .232/ .303[b]
With RISP: .200 .208/ .333

I wonder if this is sustainable...

by taiko on May 25, 2007 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

taiko, that's another interpretation

but i respectfully disagree. reyes has no faith in his secondary stuff, nor should he. his curve and 2-seamer are nowhere near the quality of his two bread-n-butter pitches (4-seamer, change). so i don't think he would opt for his secondary stuff in a tight spot; on the contrary, i think he has 100 percent faith in the 4-seamer.

it's duncan who has no faith in the 4-seamer and wants reyes to throw it less often. i think duncan believes strongly in avoidance --- don't throw to the batter's strengths. duncan thinks the 4-seamer is a hittable pitch, and reyes' changeup has become very well known and hitters are looking for it; so i think duncan draws up a game plan that features a pitch the hitters are not looking for. i believe that's how duncan thinks it through. obviously there's some common sense in that approach, but i don't think it translates well to a pitcher like reyes who has a limited range. it might work well for a more well-rounded pitcher, who can go to his #3 or #4 pitch in a tight spot without too big a stepdown in quality. for reyes, the stepdown is very big. he just doesn't have the command of the curve or the 2-seamer.

also, if reyes were scrapping the gameplan we'd be hearing about it from la russa and duncan. they always let us known when bullheads like marquis or garrett stephenson were deviating from the game plan. reyes is drawing nothing but praise right now from the brass. he rarely shakes off the sign --- watch tonight and you'll see that he throws the pitch the catcher calls, almost without fail. he's following the plan dave and tony think best, but so far it's not working ---- either because a) reyes is executing it poorly, or because b) the game plan doesn't put him in the situation where he's most likely to succeed.

i think reasonable people can disagree about whether the problem is a) or b).

by lboros on May 25, 2007 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

points taken

I'm agreed on the lack of evidence in the press that Reyes is deviating from the plan so far this year. I also take your point on Duncan's strategy of avoidance... however, his staffs are also typically very stingy with walks, so this avoidance is only to a point. While Reyes hasn't been walking many this year, it is his penchant for falling behind hitters with runners on that seems to be the cause of the troubles.

It will be interesting to watch tonight... though I won't be rooting for the Nationals to get on base just for the sake of our experiment.

by taiko on May 25, 2007 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Attack with the 4 seamer"

seems to be a common thought on how to fix REyes.

Also, the stats we get out of this deal with you guys mapping every pitch are unbelievable. Great work.

by sdrone on May 25, 2007 10:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Props to lb and Solanus for putting together this kind of effort. Most informative baseball blog ever.

by taiko on May 25, 2007 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How do you come to that conclusion?

He throws the 4-seamer more with RISP and has less success.

With bases empty he throws the 2-seamer more and has more success. Why is the 4-seamer the answer?

by enoscountry on May 25, 2007 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

World series game 1?

n/t

by sdrone on May 25, 2007 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A pycological response?

LB:

Could this just be a psycological response? Since Reyes throws 75% fastballs with the bases empty, I imagine hitters most likely get a hit off the fastball. After the hit he thinks he has go to a different pitch (either to keep the hitters guessing or because he suddenly thinks his fastball is hittable), so he goes to a curve or change.

Just a theorey.

by Zubin on May 25, 2007 10:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't think Reyes is calling the pitches

but that does make sense. It's only natural to look for a different approach after just got rocked in the gap for a standup double.

**I do this on mlb 07 lol. Never works for me either. I think I'm going to start following lb's approach and keep with the 4 seamer.

by paCardsFan on May 25, 2007 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It seems LB has already pointed out

Reyes is following LaDunc's game plan, so its not his pitch selection but rather it's Yadi's. Still the theorey may be true. Whether its Reyes or the catcher there is probably a psycological tendency to get away from what burnt ya.

by Zubin on May 25, 2007 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

this is a really good point

it's probably true that most of the hits off him are off the fastball. So w/ runners on base, he tries to get cute w/ offspeed pitches or tries to dial it up w/ the 4 seamer and add a few mph. The hitters can hit a 4 seamer they're looking for and we end up w/ a crooked #.

by chuckb on May 25, 2007 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Could you break pitch selection down by innings?

I don't know if this is the whole story yet.

Reyes' ERA in the first inning is 12.38 - over twice his ERA overall. This first inning problem motivated TLR to think Reyes isn't warming up enough - which I don't buy.

Obviously they're related, but I wonder how these pitch patterns come out by inning. It's weird because you'd think Reyes would rely on his fastball more in early innings and then go to the changeup after he established it.

by enoscountry on May 25, 2007 10:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i'll try to find time for that today

good question, and the results might be illustrative

by lboros on May 25, 2007 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Insight

When I think about why bloggers are now where I go first for analysis (for both sports and politics) rather than to daily paper columnists, this post is exactly the sort of thing that comes to mind.

There's no reason a newspaper columnist couldn't do this sort of analysis, but almost none of them do. Yet your post has given me real insight into what Reyes is doing on the mound in a way that a column on his struggles that includes a few quotes from him, his coaches, and his teammates doesn't. It will change the way I watch his next few starts for the better; it will make me a better and more attentive fan.

The columnists and the professional sportswriters still have their role; after all, having access to players and coaches does still help round out coverage of a team, and they've got that access in a way that bloggers (for now) don't. But our sports experience would be a hell of a lot more full if the pros--especially the columnists--would take a serious look at the in-depth work the fans and amateurs are doing and see what they can learn from it. There's a level of commitment and passion about the game here that--whether because of understandable burnout, deadline or space pressures, or other reasons--a lot of sportswriters don't seem to be able to muster.

(Which leads to a shout-out to Joe Posnanski of the KC Star, who has taken to blogging like a natural, or an obsessed fan, rather than a detached pro.)

Anyway, thanks again, lboros. Your work continues to be a big part of my enjoyment of the summer.

by levistahl on May 25, 2007 10:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

thanks levi

most of the props here should go to the VEB community members who are charting the pitches. that's a time-consuming task, and 5 guys are doing it very faithfully. Solanus is doing reyes' starts; plh903 is charting wagonmaker; lefty rogers is charting carpenter's understudies (first keisler, now thompson); houstsoncardinal is charting looper; and i'm the confused guy who's been charting kip wells, who only throws about 12 different pitches.

my appreciation and thanks to all those guys for their efforts.

once i get all the charts organized and aggregated, i'm going to make them available publicly so that any member of the community can download the data and do this type of analysis. if i'm a good worker bee, maybe ready by next week.

by lboros on May 25, 2007 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Inducing ground balls

Just a hypothesis, but I think that Duncan might call for more offspeed stuff, i.e., curveballs, 2 seamers and changeups with runners on becuase they are more likely to induce ground balls and set up the infield for the double play. Its just speculation but seems like something LaDunc would think.

by eglasier on May 25, 2007 10:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Dead Last in DP's

Too bad the 07 Cards are on the bottom of the heap. They certainly have put on enough base runners to create the opportunities, and I think we have ground ball inducing pitchers, so what gives?

Thnaks lb for another informative post.

Fan for Life. Go Cards.

by Birds on the Bat on May 25, 2007 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Drafting

The Ottavino article got me thinking. If the Cardinals are so determined that all of their pitchers must throw 2-seam fastballs, then why don't they focus on those types of pitchers in the draft. Adding the extra variable of learning a new pitch is just one more place where a prospect could not make the cut.
Just seems like an area where the different front office factions may disagree and therefore it hurts the organization as a whole. Draft selections should be ones who fit well within the teaching philosophy of the organization. Why try and draft people to change them, instead of drafting people and imporving the strengths they already possess.

by tjgila on May 25, 2007 11:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

in some respects

they have...they probably overdrafted for nick webber for no other reason then he has a great sinker. maybe they need to go more HS for pitchers. get them while they are young and more impressionable, not just guys who've been blowing away inferior college competition w/ heat for 2-4 years.

Future Redbirds

by erik on May 25, 2007 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

mike parisi also fits this draft profile

natural 2-seam pitcher. i think adam daniels and eric haberer and gary(?) daley also fall into this category.

by lboros on May 25, 2007 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

HS pitchers

I definitely think the Cardinals would benefit from a more high school oriented draft strategy. They've focused pretty heavily on college talent, because of the better statistical analysis they can do on those numbers. However, if you're not drafting in the top fifteen spots, especially when it comes to pitchers, most of the collegians available have fairly limited ceilings. High School players, on the other hand, tend to be your high ceiling, star-type players. There is extra development time involved, yes, but the payoff is potentially much greater.

Acquire Rocco Baldelli!

by the red baron on May 25, 2007 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reyes Start Against White Sox

Mad props to all those involved here on charting the pitches. It's incredible to see it broken down like this.

I'm interested -- has anyone charted Reyes' one-hitter against the White Sox? Obviously, there weren't a whole lot of baserunners in that game, but we could still see his overall pitch usage.

by sgfcards on May 25, 2007 12:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The real trick there

Is that we don't have the Advanced Gameday that shows actual pitch location, so we'd basically be guessing. (Although, it sometimes seems that the Gameday people are guessing at location anyways.)

Plus, the White Sox broadcast (the one offered in MLB.TV's archives) has a completely screwed up gun, at least early in the game.

Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time.

by Solanus on May 25, 2007 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gameday issues

How often are these charted using gameday instead of tv viewing?

I'm just wondering about the accuracy of the data. Having known some people who worked for gameday, I am more likely to trust random individuals at home watching TV. Regardless, I still think the effort is great and worthwhile - thanks.

by enoscountry on May 25, 2007 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is a great point

if I get a chance this weekend, I'll chart Reyes' game 1 start vs. Detroit in last year's WS. I'm not Reyes' pitch-charter, but he seems a lot easier to chart than Kip Wells is (no offense intended, Solanus). I have the DVD's of the World Series so there's no reason I can't do that, if I can find a couple hours this weekend. (I'm already a little behind on Looper's starts, don't tell, LB!)

by chuckb on May 25, 2007 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for all the hard work

This blog has become the first thing I look at in the morning and Usually the last thing I check out before I head to bed. I just wanted to say thanks to Lb and all the others for providing such a great resource for us Card fans and teaching me something new everyday.
Anyway just felt it was time to share some Kudos.. Bull Durham is on TV and the Cards have won 3 Straight only thing that would make life better is a win tonight.

"If I managed the Cubs, I'd be an Alcoholic." - Whitey Herzog

by cyko42 on May 25, 2007 1:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

this is just sad

and typical of the days we live in...http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/stlouiscitycounty/story/B30B1CD42616DCDC862572E500 5F04FC?

now not only a clever saying, but a team that plays in STL

by punchinjudy on May 25, 2007 2:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Busted link for me

Call up Ankiel!!

by jeff abs on May 25, 2007 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

try this one

different article same story...http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/columnists.nsf/bryanburwell/story/1FBF0AE27864112A862572E600 125E84?OpenDocument

now not only a clever saying, but a team that plays in STL

by punchinjudy on May 25, 2007 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

from the ottavino article

I didn't come away with the same impression that you did, iboros. What I took away from it was that he knows he's going to have to learn the two seamer, but that he's going to learn it as he goes and is not going to concentrate on throwing it to the point that he gets beaten in the minors. He'll pick it up when he needs it, in other words.

It might not be a bad strategy. You get noticed in the minors for striking people out, not walking people, and not giving up runs. With a minor league infield behind you you can't necessarily count on balls being caught and double plays executed the way they would be at the big league level; the best way for him to rise is to strike out a bunch of a-ballers and then start pitching to contact when he gets guys behind him that he can trust (and guys with bats that can hurt him).

Don't Panic!!!

by SleepyCA on May 25, 2007 2:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

game today

"Last Sunday, Bowie made his first start since 1999 and he lasted 3 1/3 innings and gave up two runs on four hits against the Orioles. He threw 69 pitches, but he ran out of gas by the time he reached 50 pitches. Bowie, who has been a reliever in recent years, wasn't used to throwing so many pitches." from cardinal's website.

Sounds like we have a mid-season Looper on our hands . . .

On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on May 25, 2007 2:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i truly feel bad for Nats players this year

they are playing on an atrocious team. they're best hitter broke his femur and their best pitcher (patterson) is out too. not to mention bergmen went down and jerome williams. . .

i don't know if I could show up everday for that.

by azruavatar on May 25, 2007 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Church/Zimmerman/Kearns/Lopez

Aren't slouches

Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on May 25, 2007 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Zimmerman is on his way up

Church has been very good (when they've let him play)

Zimmerman has an OPS just above .700
same for Kearns

Lopez is terrible with a .298 OBP and .365 SLG

The Nationals are a truly horrible offensive team.

by azruavatar on May 25, 2007 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I agree to the most part, but I'm going to wait to make comments on that until I see how our series goes with them, especially after they just whooped the Reds . . .

But yeah, not to mention playing in that excuse for a stadium that they see every day.

On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on May 25, 2007 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My question

Since the Nats just swept the Reds, does that mean Washington is improving or are the Reds just that bad this year?

by cardsgirl95 on May 25, 2007 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My bad

The Nationals took 3 out of 4 from the Reds, but the question remains the same.

by cardsgirl95 on May 25, 2007 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reyes

Hey guys. Has anyone looked at Reyes in the first inning(s) compared to later in the ballgame. I'm referring to what enoscountry said about Reyes's 12-something ERA in the first inning.

I have a theory that Reyes is deliberately putting less zip on his fastball early in the game so as to last longer. As a result, guys are teeing off on his 88mph heater early in games. Am I wrong here?

I'm a man, a manly, manly, man. Unknown

by Eckstreem on May 25, 2007 2:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i'll look it up

later today. we have the data . . .

by lboros on May 25, 2007 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's also not just the first inning

It's going through the lineup.

I'll try to find hte numbers. The Cubs announcers had stats on batting average against on Reyes going through an opposing lineup.

1st time through: hitting over .500
2nd time through: something more respectable like .250 or .270, I can't remember.
3rd time through: Reyes smacked people around. Like under .200, IIRC

by sdrone on May 25, 2007 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

lineups, per bernie

Eck
dunc
pujols
encarnacion
rolen
edmonds
molina
miles
reyes

lopez
guzman
zimmerman
church
kearns
d. young
schneider
logan
bowie

Ryan Franklin is available to pitch 2-nite...

--B

by DCGreg on May 25, 2007 5:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Like that lineup

I'd like Molina to bat higher, but let's not change anything while the streak is going.

Is Kennedy forever stuck in the doghouse at this point? I know Miles is hitting well as of late and certainly deserves the starts, but I know we didn't sign a free agent, 3 year middle infield backup.

We aren't very good.

by Hardcore Legend on May 25, 2007 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not the standard lefty lineup

Dunc' and Edmonds get to play, only Kennedy is left out (pun intended).

by cardsgirl95 on May 25, 2007 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I think it's more of a "refusal to hit him against lefties" deal.

On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on May 25, 2007 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

THis guy Bowie...

has only pitched around 100 innings in his career, but lefties have done a lot better, for whatever reason, against him.

I think Kennedy has landed himself in the doghouse...

by guayzimi on May 25, 2007 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reyes and Ottavino

I have long believed that the direction the Cardinals' handling of Reyes has been the biggest obstacle to his success. The logic behind establishing one template and then forcing all of your players to fall into it, rather than playing to their individual strengths, leaves me absolutely baffled. It seems to have hurt Reyes's confidence and altered his approach to the point where it's almost hurting his abilities. This whole approach with men on thing is very illuminating, in my opinion. You get in trouble, what do you do? Usually, you want to get beat with your best stuff. Reyes, though, goes away from his strengths, then gets backed into a corner and has to throw a predictable pitch. And in this league, predictable equals hittable. I think Reyes is being burnt, once again, by the forced alteration of what works for him.

As for Ottavino, the notion that a pitching coach would claim that a 94 mph fastball is going to get whacked, at any level, is absolutely ridiculous. Can major league hitters hit 94? Yes. Can they hit it hard? Yes, at times. Is there a cause and effect relationship? Come on. You have got to be kidding me. Curt Shilling has always thrown a four seamer hard. He tends to be up in the zone. And last I checked, he may be an asshole, but he's still a pretty damn good pitcher. The majority of pitchers, in fact, throw a four seam fastball as their primary pitch. Very few of them have the kind of velocity that Ottavino is capable of mustering, yet this young man is still being told that he has to change his approach to be successful. I just don't get it.

Acquire Rocco Baldelli!

by the red baron on May 25, 2007 5:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs