A question about Peripherals

by cardsgirl95 on May 23, 2007 8:37 AM EDT

A few days ago, people here were discussing young Anthony's value as trade bait. Some dismissed his W/L total as an indicator of his value (which I get, there are too many variables outside of the pitcher's control that determine a win or a loss), but some downplayed ERA (which I don't get, because ERA counts runs which score that the pitcher is responsible for). So, my question - What is the best indicator of a pitcher's worth? Is there one that you could point to that rises above the rest or is it a combination of things? What do you look at and why?

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Pers

I'll try and make this as concise as possible.

There is a school of thought that suggests certain stats are better indicators for future ERA than ERA itself. This is derived from the idea that once the bat has hit the ball, and is in play, the pitcher has little or no control over what happens with it (homeruns excluded). The result, at that point, is dependant on the defense and a lot of luck. Thus, peripherals often considered better indicators are the ones pitchers have control over. These are specifically Ks, BBs and HRs.

So out of all the components that make up a pitchers results:

Ks
BB
HR (not considered in play)
Outs in play
Hits in Play

The last two are given the least credit in terms of indicating future results (because of the luck involved). When people suggest Reyes' peripherals are good, they're pointg to his Ks and BBs and HRs.

There's even a way to calculate a PERA (peripheral ERA) using just Ks, BBs, and HRs.

Reyes' Era this year: 5.84
Reyes PERA: 3.96

His era should start to improve as his "in play" luck (or lack thereof) regresses to the mean.

by Jonathan23 on May 23, 2007 9:24 AM EDT reply actions

Here's a rather lengthy but good piece

from over at ussmariner on ERA and WHIP.

That being said, I still use ERA all the time. . .it's very easy to understand and find but it's not the best indicator of true pitching.

by azruavatar on May 23, 2007 9:32 AM EDT reply actions

very interesting read

where can i find sortable Fip stats?

by gocards80 on May 23, 2007 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions

hardball times

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/?view=pitching&league_filter[]=2

by lboros on May 23, 2007 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Last Night, for example

Wainwright walked only one batter and allowed no home runs, while striking out 6 (many in critical situations).

His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching Statistic) for the night was 1.512

His ERA was 3.375

He was doing what he was supposed to be doing, but the defense allowed so many balls in play to go for hits instead of turning them into outs that it looked like he was pitching badly. If he'd walked more batters or allowed a homerun with men on base, the outcome would have been fugly. That's what the peripheral-based pitching statistics are meant to capture. (Thanks be to Tom Tango and Vörös McCracken.)

by liam on May 23, 2007 12:32 PM EDT reply actions

IIRC

all nine hits allowed were singles. That's how you can allow that -- no xbh.

by azruavatar on May 23, 2007 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Is there a rule of thumb...

regarding DER?

What DER does the average defense produce?

To what extent does the pitcher control his team's DER?

by guayzimi on May 23, 2007 12:44 PM EDT reply actions

DER

DER is simply the reciporcation of BABIP + errors. BABIP measures what % of balls in play are hits, where DER measures how many balls in play are outs.

So in that vein, the pitcher theoretically has no control over his teams DER. (Though I would venture to guess a flyball pitcher has a better team DER)

by Jonathan23 on May 23, 2007 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh sorry

The average BABIP is .290 to .310, so the average DER would be around .700

by Jonathan23 on May 23, 2007 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks...

but doesn't line drive percentage factor in since it's relatively hard for the defense to catch line drives?

by guayzimi on May 23, 2007 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I dont believe

pitchers have control over their line drive rates, but i could be wrong (and youre right, line drives produce the lowest der/highest BABIP)

by Jonathan23 on May 23, 2007 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Uh....

A quicker shorthand that I use is K/BB ratio. Also, I think WHIP is a pretty good indicator as is HR/9 innings. You can get a pretty good SHORTHAND, by using those.

by Brock20 on May 23, 2007 7:20 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks!

Thanks to one and all for answering my question. Lots of great info and I feel wiser now for asking for your insight. I guess I thought WHIP and K/BB were good indicators and now I see their shortcomings as well as the benefits of using those tools to measure performance. I also better understand what was meant by "luck" in yesterday's PROTRADE article about young Anthony, thanks to Jonathan23.

by cardsgirl95 on May 23, 2007 7:46 PM EDT reply actions