FanPost

Anthony Reyes' very low "strand rate"

Interesting statistical analysis from Pro Trade on the Cardinals' team site, pointing out that Anthony Reyes is only stranding 54% of his base runners - which is an extremely low rate, lower than the lowest measured full-season rate (58% by Derek Lowe in 2004).

Link: http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070522&content_id=1979280&vkey=news_ stl&fext=.jsp&c_id=stl

The thing is, the article suggests that this is something that is largely out of the pitcher's control, and is mostly a measure of luck. In fact, with his other peripherals in line, the authors are concluding that Reyes' terrible ERA is mostly a matter of bad luck, something that will even out over time.

However, this leads me to believe that there is something wrong with his pitching motion out of the stretch - either he is tipping pitches again, or is changing his selection, or isn't getting the same life. Look at this split from this year:

Bases empty: .196/ .255/ .324 -- 578 OPS against
With runners on: .319/ .372/ .580 -- 952 OPS against
With RISP: .318/ .360/ .682 -- 1042 OPS against

Is this bad luck, or is this an indicator of something that can be fixed?

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