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the cards have now emphatically lost series to all three of the teams they beat 7 months ago in the playoffs; they're a combined 1-8 against san diego, new york, and detroit. the only real surprise this weekend was that the cards almost won a game; they even mounted a comeback from way down, or "played a hard 9" as the saying used to go. "hard 9" has a lot different connotation this season. . . . toss in their 0-4 record vs marquis and suppan, and the cards are now 1-12 in what i'm calling "revenge games." in those 13 games they've been outscored 27 to 79 --- a 52-run deficit, an average margin of defeat of 4 runs per game. rick hummel says the cards really are this terrible, and it's hard to disagree with him. over their last 162 regular-season games, the cardinals are 74-88 and have been outscored 723 to 813. they're well on their way to their fourth consecutive losing month and their fifth out of the last six. you could say they've been unlucky with injuries; you could say they've just gotten old; you could say they're suffering from a collective championship hangover; you could say they've misjudged and/or mismanaged their personnel.

a good case can be made for any and all of the above. i'm still mulling the other popular argument, the most prevalent one --- "the owners are cheap" --- and as much as i'd like to sign on to that, i can't. i'll sum up my reason in two words: scott rolen. here's a big-name free agent the cardinals did open their wallets for --- signed him to an 8-year, $90 million deal that began in 2003. he was that free-agent class's equivalent of carlos lee or alfonso soriano --- indeed, was a much better buy than either one of those players, insofar as rolen was younger (he was 28 years old when the contract began; lee and soriano are both 31), a better hitter, and an infinitely better fielder. every cardinal fan was thrilled to have rolen then . . . . but look now. halfway through the deal, rolen appears to be washed up and a lot of fans hate his guts. the deal still has three and a half loonnnnng years to run, and the cards still owe mr rolen more than $40m in compensation.

two or three years from now (maybe sooner), the astro fans will be bitching like that about carlos lee, and the cubs will be bitching that way about soriano. and if the cards had signed either one of them, it would be us bitching a few years from now --- just as we bitch about rolen today, and as we bitched about tino martinez for nearly the entirety of his sojourn in st louis. did the cardinals make mistakes in the off-season? absolutely. but they were mistakes of judgment and talent evaluation, rather than sheer miserliness. more than that, really --- the mistake has been the cards' long-standing neglect of player development. when they have a hole to fill, their only recourse is the free-agent market --- and the free-agent market is generally populated with older players who are past their prime. the cards might have made a run at dave dellucci this off-season; he's hitting .236 and has an ops of .637. brian giles --- who i wanted the cards to go after last year --- has an ops of .694. dave roberts, who i suggested might be a viable alternative to edmonds, has an ops of .654. another guy i liked, frank catalanotto, batted .140 in april and then went onto the dl.

every one of those players would have cost the cardinals a first- or second-round draft pick. the cards chose to keep the picks --- and two or three years from now, some of those picks will be knocking on the door of the big leagues and ready to step in to regular jobs, while carlos lee and fonzie soriano may very well be where scott rolen and jim edmonds and brian giles et al are today. when you restock your roster year after year with players aged 30 and older, sooner or later the team's gonna end up where the cards are --- old, broken down, and lazy. the cardinals are trying to break that cycle, and --- painful though it may be in the short term --- it's the only way they can stay competitive in the long run.

the draft takes place soon, june 7-8, and espn2 will carry the early rounds live. mark your calendars.

as for this sorry season: the cards' last chance to keep our interest begins tomorrow. more than half of their next 28 games are against last-place clubs --- they play kansas city, colorado, washington, and cincinnati 16 times. if they can muster the pride and the skill to win 11 or 12 of those easy games and break even in the rest, they'd go 17-11 or 18-10 over the next month --- which would leave them within a game or three of .500. that brings us to june 22, the beginning of summer. although the schedule appears to stiffen a bit after that, they'll be at home most of the way until the all-star break; a dreamer might dare to hope that the cards can reach the intermission with a 43-43 record. and then? carpenter returns in mid-august; mulder arrives at some point; maybe a hitter shakes free for cheap on the trade market.

i don't believe any of this is going to happen; not for a moment. but it's not even memorial day, and i'm not quite ready to turn my back on this season --- however much the team might deserve it. how remote are the chances of a renaissance? let me frame it like this. after 41 games, the cardinal pitchers are slugging nearly as well as the center and rightfielders --- the respective slugging averages are .258, .270, and .274 --- and are not far behind the 2bmen and shortstops, who are at .285 and .292. if we look at isolated power (ie, slugging average minus batting average), the pitchers (at .091) are better than all four of those positions, plus the catchers. position by position, the pitchers are the 4th most potent power source on the team.

that's the punchless bunch we're all hoping will catch fire, everybody; let's go cards. they'd have to play .600 ball the rest of the year (fat chance of that) just to end up with 88 wins --- which might or might not be enough to win the division. to get to 90 wins (a more likely division-winning number), they'll have to go 74-47 from here on out --- a .612 clip. for other cardinal teams, that might not have seemed an impossible challenge; far from it. but for this one?

i doubt they have it in them.

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     Long time no texting.  Got married which is interesting in itself considering where I am.  Havn't been able to follow much, but what I have seen is very painful.  However, it looks like Albert has righted his ship, and Yadier, Izzy and Dunc are solid.  All we need is for everyone else to get going.....  Sheesh, really Capt. Obvious?.  I remember railing on Yadier to get the stick going. I would be quite content if he hit .105 the rest of the way and we won it all.  Remember it is a game, The greatest game.  Enjoy the beauty of it. Imagine if Baseball were the first professional sport in the world to go Green!!!!  Now, that's sayin' something.  As always, all the best to everyone.  

by Yadier on May 21, 2007 9:38 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Power Outage: Scott Rolen
Did his shoulder fall off and I missed it?  Has he been batting with only one arm for part of the season now and I didn't know?

Looking at some of his stats at firstinning.com (which is a great site btw), his groundball% is up and his linedrives are down.  Not to mention his ISO is half of what it was last year.  

I just can't imagine that he would suffer this kind of total inability to hit the ball if his shoulder wasn't barking.  And given my complete mistrust for the medical staff a "play through the pain" reccomendation seems entirely believable.  

by azruavatar on May 21, 2007 9:38 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

my two cents -
compounding the normal wear and tear of a hell-bent ballplayer like SR are the two freakish, one-in-a-million basepath colllision injuries he suffered, and we may be seeing the premature deterioration of an athlete

by Urban Pawnee on May 21, 2007 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's possible
but it still doesn't explain the poor contact, atleast, to me.

If you start hitting warning track shots or linedrives that merely skim over infielders heads, hit everything the 'other way' without much authority, then ya, I'd think it would be just a guy getting old and tired.

Rolen, however, still has an emmense amount of zip on the ball when he is throwing and his 'reach' with his glove seems uneffected.

He isn't making good contact.  Even Edmonds is doing that, and he's broken down all over the place.

Perhaps Rolen is standing too tall or something and his eyeline has changed.

We aren't very good.

by Hardcore Legend on May 21, 2007 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

rolen's troubles
I was at the games on Saturday and Sunday and took several pictures of different Cardinal players. After looking them over, it really seemed like Rolen was dropping his back shoulder considerably at the start of his swing.

Maybe that's normal for him, or maybe the couple of pictures that I took of him just happened to make it look like he was doing this more than he really was...who knows. It seems to easy of an answer to be the real solution...

10-time World Champs!

by TheFranchise9 on May 21, 2007 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Larry...
any chance of seeing a comparison of our projections vs. the first quarter of the season actuals?  

by cardzfanbub on May 21, 2007 9:41 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

speaking of the draft
i'll do my best to be all over it. with the aforementioned woes of rolen, i have a gut feeling they may pick rutgers todd frazier, who's considered to be the best college third baseman in the draft. perhaps they can find a way to unstick themselves from the rolen situation by the time he is ready, which shouldn't be more then a season or two.

by erik on May 21, 2007 9:43 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It will take cash
I think that if the Cards were to be able to unload Rolen, it will cost the Cards quite a bit of cash.

http://whiteyball.wordpress.com

by whiteyball on May 21, 2007 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cardinals have plenty of excess cash....
I doubt they'd mind picking up some salary if they could get some decent prospects for him in return.
Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on May 21, 2007 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

thanks
LB,

Just a quick note to say thanks for maintaining this blog.  I enjoy reading this more than I enjoy watching the games right now.  And, this blog really made the 06 playoff run more fun.  

I can't tell you how often I send links to your analysis (and Erik's and Valatan's) to my pals.  

by raisin on May 21, 2007 10:10 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes...
the season is toast. We can't even count on Wainwright or Reyes to give quality starts on a regular basis. At best this year is a tuneup to a more productive 2008.

But Rolen washed up? That seems like jumping the gun. He's been bad for a about 2.5 months, but there's been some good stretches mixed in there, and he's been better over the past week...

by guayzimi on May 21, 2007 10:11 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

he might be washed up
time will tell. he's 32 and is a power hitter with a bad shoulder. will he ever have a 30 hr season again? will he ever again hit 25?

by lboros on May 21, 2007 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pedro Alvarez
We need to tank this season in order to draft him next year. It'll take  a top 3 pick, probably 1st overall.
Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on May 21, 2007 10:16 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Hey lboros...
are you really suggesting the Rolen deal hasn't worked out for the organization?

And who are these fans that "hate is guts" and what could possibly be their rationale?

by guayzimi on May 21, 2007 10:17 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i'm not suggesting it hasn't worked out
i'm suggesting that there's almost always a tradeoff when you sign a free agent to a long-term deal --- you get 3 or 4 good years (if you're lucky) and you might get 3 or 4 bad ones, or so-so ones.

the rolen deal, on balance, has been a good deal for the organization --- but it has been a mixed bag. he was good in '03, '04, and '06 --- injured in '05, and having a bad season this year. maybe he'll pick it up and turn in a good year for us in '07, but if he doesn't that makes 3 good years vs two bad ones.

rolen-type deals aren't always the answer. at the current time, in my opinion, they aren't the answer for this organization.

who are the fans who hate his guts? maybe you didn't read this board during the playoffs last year.

by lboros on May 21, 2007 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rolen vs. Lee & Soriano
Just my opinion, but I think that Astros fans and Cubs fans are going to be gripping about the deals those two got W-A-A-A-Y before the time Cards fans questioned the Rolen signing.  And I think we will have gotten more out of the deal in the long run that either of those two teams get with signing those guys at their ages.  

by cardsgirl95 on May 21, 2007 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well..
I don't think the 12-year-olds that marred your blog with a bunch of expletives every time he popped out really constitute an important sector Cardinal fandom.

I mean, aside from the last month and a half, he's either played splendidly or he's been injured, and the injury was no real fault of his own. I don't think any rational person could "hate" Scott Rolen for what he's done in a Cardinal uni, and if someone does, that really says more about that person.

Anyway, you're right. There are always tradeoffs and it doesn't make sense right now to load up on high price talent as the team stinks and it wouldn't put them over the hump.

by guayzimi on May 21, 2007 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

re the 12-year-olds
i think some of them were only 12 in a figurative sense --- ie, 12-year-old sensibility in an adult's body.

anyway, maybe "hate his guts" was too strong. and by the way, if i left the impression that i hate rolen, that was poor communication on my part. i don't hate rolen, nor any baseball player --- not even bonds. i save my hatred for people who abuse children, abuse power, and that sort of thing.

but i do have concerns about how productive rolen will be in his mid-30s, and i also wonder about his level of concentration this season. at the very least, there are legitimate concerns about that contract moving forward.

i hope those concerns prove to be unwarranted.

by lboros on May 21, 2007 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And there's always the old adage to consider..
the players who play the hardest are the ones that break down first--players who play aggresively on defense, like Larry Walker, Griffey Jr, and Rolen are the ones that get screwed up by injury, not the lazy ones, as fans are likely to assert.  I always knew he wouldn't age so gracefully.  I just didn't know that the decline would start so soon.

by Valatan on May 21, 2007 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

this is a great point
although Craig Biggio may be an exception.  But you'd have to think that those guys who go balls to the wall, every game, are going to take more of a beating and get worn down more quickly than others.  It's ironic that the players who may be most valuable, b/c their effort is an example to others and b/c the fans love them, may be the ones you LEAST want to sign to really long term contracts.

by chuckb on May 21, 2007 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

O/T
Back from Detroit where I watched our beloved Birds fall to the Tiggers yet again.  Some thoughts:  Didn't sit next to the bleachers like last year.  That was an excellant play on my part because the people around us were nice and even spoke to us, unlike the drunken idiots last year.  Plenty of other Cards fans, definitely the minority, but a visible presence.  Comerica earned brownie points in my book with some changes in their policies.  They didn't allow any food or drink to be brought into the stadium last season.  This year you could bring in food and sealed bottles of water.  As a result, there were street vendors selling peanuts and water just like you see in front of Busch.  I guess winning makes people less caustic, because the over-all atmosphere was improved.  Even the vendors were polite, whereas in the past they were as surly as the fans.  About the game:  That was a MONSTER homer that Baby Dunc' hit!  First one to dead center in about a year and a half.  Also, Babyface Brad looked good through four innings in spite of giving up one run on two hits in the first.  He threw first pitch strikes to most batters in those innings and stayed ahead of the hitters.  He gave up no hits in innings 2 - 4, which went 1-2-3 except for a walk to Granderson leading off the third (after he hit a triple to start the game).  He started falling behind the hitters in the fifth and that's where the game got away from us.  Sorry for the long post, but one concluding thought (and it is on topic), I am not ready to give up on this team yet.  I think they can make a respectable finish, but it depends on how they do in this soft part of the schedule that finishes off the month.  If they fail here, I give, its over.  I won't stop watching, I'll just stop caring (about results).      

by cardsgirl95 on May 21, 2007 10:27 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Rose colored glasses
I've been reading your site for months now and have really enjoyed it, but I'm a new poster.  I know  what I'm about to say may seem like I'm looking at the team through rose colored glasses.  But I have more fun watching the game while focusing on as many positives as I can.  Yes, they've been bad.  Of course a team loses when their pitching and their offense can get on the same page.  And I think TLR made some stupid mangerial decisions during the trip that contributed to some losses.  

I admit they have many faults.  But I also am hopeful in some of what I saw on that roadtrip.  First, the offense has picked up significantly.  In a number of games against the most difficult opponents, the cards have scored in multiple innings and with a reasonably high number of hits and runs.  And they've been able to do this against left-handed pitchers.  Second, they haven't given up when they've fallen behind, but have fought through the 9th inning.  I enjoy seeing them do that, especially in the face of all they've going through, and frankly, in the face of hardly anyone believing in them.  Third, Yadi has improved enormously as a hitter, Eckstein is coming around to his more consistent self, Pujols seems to be moving in the right direction, Edmonds has hit very well in certain games (showing at least his capability with singles), Juan E. has hit better than I expected (though he looks bad at the plate), and Kennedy seems to be growing more comfortable in the number one spot.  As to Rolen.  he was hitting well in the spring (up to JH's death)--he was approaching a 300 batting average.  So I'm not ready to give up on him yet.  I think he needs time off.  Tony may be afraid to bench him for a while because of their past (and present?) tensions.  But he obviously needs some rest.  Everyone was ready to give up on Rolen in the post-season as well.  But after he was benched and rested, he became essential to winning the world series.  And finally, the pitching was bad this week.  By I have a feeling that it's about time their arms are getting tired and sore.  Hopefully, they will strengthen again rather than continue to weaken

Sorry for the long post!  I just think there are important things that should offer reasons to hope.

by nycardfan on May 21, 2007 10:35 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

What I'm looking forward to
is the development of the young players -- Reyes, Wainwright, Duncan -- who knows who might get called up later on.  The future of this organization is going to have to be determined by its player development and those 3 will be good, maybe very good.  Watching them develop will, at least, give us hope for next year and the future.

by chuckb on May 21, 2007 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The math to get to 90 (or 83) wins...
The funny thing is, before I read this morning, I was doing the same math- except I figured the best case scenario would be that somehow 83 wins could take the division a 2nd year in a row.  That would mean the Cardinals would need to go 67-54.  That's a .550 winning percentage, and I think at best barely within reach.  So basically if all the other clubs play as badly as concievably possible and the Cardinals play as well as conceivably possible, we have an outside shot...

I'll still watch and read, but I am basically resigned to rooting for us not to finish last.

by Zubin on May 21, 2007 10:46 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The peaks and valleys
are part of baseball - part of any sport, for that matter.  They just aren't usually this close together.  As tough as it is to take, it's been an amazing run.
  • Seven years
  • Six playoff appearances
  • Five NLCS appearances
  • 2 WS appearances
  • our 10th WS victory
Only teams with wads of cash and plenty of prospects can avoid some falloff at some point.

While this season looks to be "a goner" as Rooney would say, I see good things coming.  We have a bunch of young guys on the club with bright futures - who wouldn't like having Pujols and Duncan in the core of the lineup for years to come?  Wainwright, Reyes, Thompson and TJ still have room to grow and develop.  Molina is starting to hit and his defense is second-to-none.  We are starting to see players at the high minors (some at AAA, more at AA) who may contribute a lot in coming years.  High and low A haven't looked this good in forever.  We haven't traded away our picks lately so the prospect development pipeline should continue to grow.

While our ownership is certainly running the team as a business, which it is, they also seem to be committed to winning.  I think they want to do it right, do it smart, do it wisely.  It can get frustrating at times to not have them pursue high dollar players, but we enjoy an upper tier payroll that's produced some awesome teams.  Their track record since rescuing the team in 1995 has been impressive.  That doesn't mean that we let them off the hook for questionable decisions - and I know this community won't - I just don't believe they care more about the bottom line than about winning.  I think they care about both.

I've been in this "Cardinal fan business" through thick and thin for 40 years, and in this case I can see our way out of the valley a lot more clearly than I could in the 1970's or the early 1990's.

Thanks for the site, Larry.  It makes the rollercoaster ride a much richer experience - and I benefit tremendously from your and the other coummunity members' wisdom.  It's been said here before, but coming here on a regular basis has to be like earning a graduate degree in baseball!

by wildman on May 21, 2007 10:49 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

completely agree
This has been a great run.  Every team in every sport that has a run like this eventually falls on hard times and has to restock.  Usually it's because (i) their key guys get old, (ii)they have some injuries, (iii) other teams do a better job evaluating talent, and (iv) they are slow to realize the impact of the first three factors.

We really should appreciate the fact that we were able to get that WS victory last year -- a lot of teams (e.g., the Pirates of the early '90s, the Orioles of the mid- to late-90s) have great runs that don't include a championship or even better runs (the Braves of the last decade and a half) with only one championship to show for it.

by tdawg on May 21, 2007 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

appreciate the remarks wildman
and totally agree with your perspective re peaks and valleys. teams can't stay on top forever, and all players have a finite period of greatness. the cards still have a great hitter and a #1 pitcher to build around; with a little luck and a little savvy, maybe they'll be back in the thick of it soon.

by lboros on May 21, 2007 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ownership is not to blame
Some reading I've done recently has convinced me.  First of all, there was the forbes article on franchise valuations -- though the Cards are 6th in franchise value and last year were 7th in revenues, they were 21st in baseball in terms of the profit they earned.  Granted, one of the reasons for that could be that they paid a lot on their debt but that's understandable considering the new stadium.  The payroll is $90M, after all.

Second, Nate Silver's been running articles for baseball prospectus on the values of the 30 baseball markets.  According to his research, the Cardinals have the 19th best baseball market, behind such perennial stalwarts as the Rangers, the Orioles, the Blue Jays and the Reds.

Finally, it was not ownership's decision to not spend money this offseason.  Every article I've read said that Walt had permission to spend money if he could find a player worth spending it on.  He offered up for Schmidt and Pettitte and would have for Soriano had it not gotten ridiculous.  The others weren't worth it.  Research shows that spending money on the top tier free agents is probably worth it but spending it on the middle tier usually isn't.  Even so, the decision not to resign Suppan was Walt's, not ownership's.  

The real problem is, as LB described, the lack of player development for the last several years.  Yes, we have had some big successes -- Pujols, Drew  -- but most have been fringe players, role players.  That's not insignificant but people like Brad Thompson and Tyler Johnson aren't difference makers.  

Was Rolen worth it?  I think so.  We won 1 WS and went to another.  But I'm afraid that the last few years of his deal will be like the ones we wrote about when Houston signed Lee and the Cubs signed Soriano to long term deals.  Develop players and stay away from 8 year deals for free agents!

by chuckb on May 21, 2007 10:52 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think another analogy that you might want to
draw is to the Jeff Bagwell deal in Houston.  Did Houston want to make that deal?  Yes--he was awesome over most of the run of that contract.  Did it look horrendously disastrous the last couple of years?  Definitely.

by Valatan on May 21, 2007 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You know...
if you stay away from 8-year deals, you don't get to have Scott Rolen on your team. And if we hadn't had Rolen on the team there wouldn't have been pennants and championships the past few years.

Sure it's nice to draft these guys and pay them the minimum, but what if you end up with Paul Coleman instead? Do you run up the white flag? I'm sure they've been trying on draft day, but it just hasn't worked out. It's not like they "decided" to draft crappy players... Once those guys didn't work out, they had no choice but to sign relatively old players to free agent contracts - a strategy which has brought about one of the best runs in the history of the franchise.

by guayzimi on May 21, 2007 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know that they didn't intentionally
have bad drafts and poor player development, but that's the way it's turned out.  And you're right about the long term deals but you have to be really careful -- I'm not convinced the Soriano one won't be worth it.  Lee and Zito, OTOH, really bad.

What about Pujols?  His was a long term deal.  If he, god forbid, suffers a career ending injury tomorrow it was still worth it.  

by chuckb on May 21, 2007 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

guayzimi, you sign an 8-year deal with a superstar
when the core of your team is in its prime and you're one or two players away --- when you're ready to win now. that's where the cards were in 2002-03, when they signed rolen; they needed a right-handed power bat, and he filled the need. the results speak for themselves.

but the cards in 2006-07 are not one player away; they need help all over the diamond. so an 8-year deal with soriano, or a 6-year deal with el caballo, would not have made sense for the cards. they don't make sense for the astros / cubs either, imho.

by lboros on May 21, 2007 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Now it's clear...
a Soriano or Lee or Suppan was not the right move for the Cards this past offseason, but in November, when it seemed probable that Rolen would match his '06 numbers or better, Carp and Pujols would be Cy Young and MVP again, Edmonds would be at least serviceable etc., I think it did make some sense to try to add someone to squeeze out one more run.

After all, didn't almost everyone on this board forecast 85-93 wins? Isn't that one player away from another postseason run? I was the 78 win guy, but I still thought a Suppan signing along with a Reyes for a bat trade would have been the smart move. Obviously, it's a good thing Walt didn't do that. You don't count on newbie starters and Braden Looper if you're in win now mode, and last November, that's where we were, imo.

by guayzimi on May 21, 2007 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

we'll have to agree to disagree
i and many others felt like 85 to 93 wins was plenty good enough to contend in this lousy division. and that assumption has proved correct; 85 to 93 wins is good enough to make a run. it's just that without carpenter and with edmonds/rolen sucking, the cardinals have little chance to get there. but nobody anticipated all 3 of those players contributing zero (or worse) value in 2007.

as you say, they could have made short-term decisions to try to squeeze out one more run in 2007 --- but the cost of that one more run could be several years of noncontention, as all the expensive past-prime players get old together. we've already seen the last two years how quickly teams can age; tilting the balance even more toward pricey 30-and-overs isn't the way i would have wanted things to go. personally i'm glad they showed restraint.

by lboros on May 21, 2007 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So is it fair to say...
you wanted it both ways? Develop the young guys, don't take on a Suppan or a Lee, and simultaneously take the division with 88 wins while keeping budgetary space available for the future.

This would be tidy if it worked out, but it seems too fine a line to walk. It's lame we suck so bad, but it really would have been tragic to finish a game or two behind the Brewers, and denied a chance to make another run all because we wanted to have our cake and eat it too.

by guayzimi on May 21, 2007 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's exactly what I wanted
this organization's been needing to get younger for some time and the emergence of Duncan, Wainwright, and Reyes allows it to do just that.  In addition, I thought this team could get to about 90 wins and take the division while also bringing along the young players.  I don't think that strategy is necessarily bad as, I believe, it will be the aging of Edmonds, Rolen and, to a lesser degree, Eckstein that will hurt this team the most, not its reliance on younger players.  It's just that none of us counted on them all falling apart + the near-season long injury to Carpenter.

by chuckb on May 21, 2007 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

first priority: get younger and cheaper
second priority: try to contend in 2007

if they can accomplish both, great. if not, oh well; can't win them all.

they had a plan to contend, but it doesn't look like it's going to work out. c'est la vie. at least they didn't make bad short-term oriented decisions that would hamstring the organization for the next 3-4 years.

by lboros on May 21, 2007 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

and if i can clarify furtherq
i thought the young pitchers already on the roster would probably be better pitchers in 2007 than most of the free agents out there. that hasn't been such a bad assumption. most of the free-agent signees have been disasters --- and their teams are stuck with them, and the high price tags, for another 2 to 4 years.

the cards' young pitchers haven't been very good either, but they're still better than most of the veteran signees because the cards aren't stuck with them; the team can cut bait on wainwright or reyes at any time, and have money available to sign somebody like buehrle or dontrelle or santana or any of the other, better pitchers that are coming onto the market.

re jeff suppan --- guayzimi, i now you think the cards blew it on that one. maybe they did, or maybe a year from now (or 3 months from now) they'll look wise for having taken a pass. we shall see. it's a four year deal, and i'm not gonna judge it based on 9 starts.

by lboros on May 21, 2007 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

this is a great point
we all knew coming in that to have a shot to win this year we had to have the best of both worlds;

1.we needed our young guys to produce

2.we needed our aging veterans to produce

3.we had to be healthy

so far, none of these have really happened, and on top of that, they have lost a teammate

we do have good things to look forward to, as lboros said, we have youngsters who should be better in the future, in part because of the experience they are getting now, and we have no contracts from last offseason that hamstring us down the road, as the cubs, astros, and brewers may have

Pujols is the greatest Cardinal in my lifetime.

by bigcardsfan5 on May 21, 2007 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

MiLB's link to 2007 draft
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070516&content_id=244570&vkey=news _milb&fext=.jsp

Seems to be a very good, informative site.  Hope that you all enjoy reading it.  

There are a lot of young high school pitchers (especially lefties) in this draft, and fewer college bats than normal.

I hope the Cardinals go after a bat first, and then some of those HS pitchers.  Grant Desme, Mike Moustakas, Devin Mesoraco and Nick Noonan intrigue me as possible position players.  

by michajo on May 21, 2007 10:52 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Schedule
as you say Larry, this is it, last stand time.

PIT - 3 - H
WAS - 3 - H
COL - 4 - R
HOU - 3 - R
CIN - 3 - H

After that, it gets considerably harder

LAA - 3 - H
KCR - 3 - R
OAK - 3 - R
KCR - 3 - H
PHI - 3 - H
NYM - 4 - R
CIN - 3 - R

What needs to happen?

PIT - 3 - H (2-1)
WAS - 3 - H (2-1)
COL - 4 - R (3-1)
HOU - 3 - R (2-1)
CIN - 3 - H (3-0)

Stretch record: 12-4  Overall Record: 28-29

LAA - 3 - H (1-2)
KCR - 3 - R (3-0)
OAK - 3 - R (2-1)
KCR - 3 - H (2-1)
PHI - 3 - H (1-2)
NYM - 4 - R (1-3)
CIN - 3 - R (2-1)

Stretch record: 12-10 Overall Record: 40-39

I doubt it's going to happen.  They have to start stringing wins together to mount any kind of fight.

We aren't very good.

by Hardcore Legend on May 21, 2007 10:55 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

a couple thoughts...
First off, I agree - this is the last stand.  The season depends on how we fare over the next 5 series.  That will put us pretty much to Flag Day, at which point I said I'd be worried.

That said, the "considerably harder" stretch you mention, actually could pan out.  It would seem our overall record against those teams is slightly better than .500 ball.  To come out of that stretch at 12-10 is slightly better than .500 ball.  

Whereas in the "easy stretch" we need to come out 12-4 (a .750 winning percentage), but at present, have an overall record slightly worse than .500 ball.

Just thought it worth mentioning that, speaking from a W-L numbers point of view, the "hard stretch" actually looks pretty attainable, but the "easy stretch" truly is going to make or break us this season.  

Duncan 4 Cleanup

by SmashedAtoms on May 21, 2007 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Can I please
have a Friday and Sunday win when the boys go to Oakland? I have tickets to those games and would like very much to see a win. Last year I went to 3 games and they lost every time... including the game where El Hombre injured his oblique... so I am due to see victory, right?
Eagles may soar, but weasels don't get sucked into jet engines

by RosevilleRedbird on May 21, 2007 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow he's skinny
He'll put some meat on those bones.  

Then, look out.  He's only going to hit for more power as he progresses.

Sounds like he's still a kid and the sky's the limit.

by silent_bob on May 21, 2007 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the link
Any Colby content is interesting....  If he keeps this up it will be hard to keep him out of STL to start 08...  Man would that be nice...

by Lawless on May 21, 2007 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I really think that's too soon
there's no need to rush him and he won't be a difference maker next year anyway so he'll need to start 08 at AAA.  I'm not sure he'll finish the year there, however.  It's premature to get overly excited about him b/c often prospects flame out for one reason or another, but he is the best position playing prospect we've had come up through the minors since Albert -- and he shot up so quickly that it was tough for that excitement to build.

by chuckb on May 21, 2007 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rolen
I remember liking him immensely immediately because he ran the bases hard (in addition to spectacular play at 3B).  

I admit to expecting less power last year than he gave us: 22 HR, 48 doubles, SLG not much below career average.  His shoulder can't be worse than last year, right?  I don't think the injury is the sole cause of what's going on with his meager production this year.  Perhaps the injury in connection with getting older?  Perhaps something else, like off the field but in the clubhouse issues (read: TLR)?  

I still like Rolen as a big part of the club.  I think he has the physical capacity to be a solid 5 hole-type hitter.  It just doesn't look like it right now.

by awpierce on May 21, 2007 11:00 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

A Rolen Injury
Frankly, I hope he has been having shoulder trouble.  It would be truly shocking if, after a solid 2006 season and his WS run, that his abilities suddenly fell off the cliff.  An injury is better than the other scenario, the "Chris Webber."

That's the one where the disgruntled veteran turns into a shadow of his former self, and it appears that his career is over. Then he gets traded to a new city, where he miraculously recovers his old form and is a significant contributor on a championship run.

by blove121 on May 21, 2007 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And takes
90% of his original contract with him as severance, in addition to a new contract.  

by awpierce on May 21, 2007 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree
that something just doesn't add up with him.  And even if we wanted to trade him we wouldn't get crap right now.  No one is gonna take our garbage and give us anything of value even if we eat the whole contract.  No reason to sell low at this point.  If I were management I'd instead be selling the crap out of Looper/Franklin/Izzy as they have the most value due to their solid stats and attractive contracts.

by eglasier on May 21, 2007 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rolen - I Blame Myself
In May of 2005 my father-in-law (A life-long Dodgers Fan)and myself made the long trek to Busch II to see a series before it they tore it down. It was a fun series to attend. I got to see several curtain calls (Reggie Sanders went yard twice in a game, Pujols, Edmonds all playing great), but most memorable, I saw Rolen run out a ground ball and run smack into the middle of He Seop Choi (sp?). From my vantage point (3rd base dugout) it looked like Choi took the worst of it. But of course I was quickly proven wrong when he hit the game winning HR to deep center later in the game, meanwhile Rolen would miss most of the rest of 2005.

So in conclusion, I apologize. It was my fault. I also saw Matty Mo pitch well and we know where he went. Blame me for that too. (By the way, great game yesterday by Matt). In fact, now that I remember back, Mulder didn't look too bad in that series as well... Ahh the memories.

by paCardsFan on May 21, 2007 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've pretty much
given up on this season, but the team--nah. This will be a proverbial lost year, but they'll be back. It's not often that EVERYTHING that can go wrong does, including the death of a teammmate, two "aces" out, and the first career slump of El Hombre. 08 may not bring back the juggernauts of 04 or 05, but it will be better than this season of hell. Horrible seasons happen, and I'm just thankful for the 06 WS Title. Imagine how excrutiating this would be without that still in the rearview mirror.

Let these young pitchers work out the bugs they need to, let some of the Memphis and Springfield guys get another year of experience, let Pujols and Rolen have their worst year, and let the organization figure out how to get back in the mix. After this year, they'll have nowhere to go but back up the ladder. Just having a healthy Carp and Mulder should help tremendously; in fact, I hope we don't see them at all this season. Other than beginning their regiment of return, I say leave them rest and heal--even if by some miracle we're still in striking range in august. Bringing them back too soon would be a crime and may risk them for 08 needlessly. Turn on Rolen? No way. He'll be better too--can't really get much worse. Albert will most likely be Albert again as well, and that alone is worth a lotta wins we're missing this year.

So what if we're in last place by the end. We're Cardinals fans--we can take it. A crap year like this reminds us how great the great years were--and will be again. Last year was worth every single botched game this year can bring. Let's stick with our boys, gut out the horrors with them, and keep the faith. The team and we fans will all be stronger for it next year.  

by rockin redbird on May 21, 2007 11:23 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Hummel column
The catty exchange between TLR and Jed was interesting. This club may yet turn out to be pretty exciting this year, just for all the wrong reasons...

by birdjam on May 21, 2007 11:24 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

absolutely unacceptable
TLR should be fired for that article.  The cardinals could be 35-15 and I'd say the same thing.  It's Tony's job to protect his players, not put them on the defensive in front of the cameras and tell them they "should have caught that ball".  Yeah, you have that conversation, but you have it in the locker room, not in front of the press.  It's just simply unprofessional.  I don't care what the mood is in the clubhouse, that didn't help any.

Honestly TLR is acting like he has completely lost control of himself.  Not sure if it is misplaced ego, or senility, or something else, but hisbehavior is not helping anything right now.  

Don't Panic!!!

by SleepyCA on May 21, 2007 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He was just
being truthful. Why should those comments get him fired?

by cardsrul on May 21, 2007 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Because his job
is not to "be truthful".  His job is to "win baseball games", and this BS behavior is in no way helping with that.  There are things you simply do not do when you are the leader of an organization.  Making scapegoats out of your veterans is one of them.
Don't Panic!!!

by SleepyCA on May 21, 2007 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i agree with TLR
kinda strange that a manager that constantly sugar coats things and defends his players (past and present) would call out Edmonds like that...BUT he is correct.

While the Tigers OFs (granderson in particular) were running down everything, Edmonds looked like he was jogging after fly balls. To me it looked a heckuva lot less like a bad read and a whole lot more like a poor effort by Edmonds on both balls.

I remember looking at my cousin after both and we were just shaking our heads with our hands out wondering how on earth they fell in for hits.

Completely out of character for the Jimmy Edmonds that we've grown used to watching. Whether its lingering injuries or lack of heart isn't for me to say, but it is sad to see him perform this way.

10-time World Champs!

by TheFranchise9 on May 21, 2007 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don't look know but our Pythagorean record
is 14-27.  Which is actually worse than the Nationals. . .

by azruavatar on May 21, 2007 12:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Rolen's malaise
It's also possible that Rolen hates LaRussa and as we all know, if you hate your boss, then coming to work is about as fun as a swift punch to the kidney.  And if he is having less fun at work, then he has less verve while doing his work.  He gives away at bats, etc.  Just a theory.

by mdarshan on May 21, 2007 12:39 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i think that possibility is worth considering
there have been some pretty large hints that all is not right in that clubhouse.

by lboros on May 21, 2007 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

danny haren
is leading the american league in era by a healthy margin.

sigh.

I believe in the Sports Guy rule. Any "complaining" in this post is actually happy, cheerful "constructive criticism."

by nycbirdo on May 21, 2007 12:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Haren
I second that sigh.

by mdarshan on May 21, 2007 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that giants trade
is faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar more lopsided than the Cards' trade.  Not even close.

by chuckb on May 21, 2007 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That guy is silly...
Nathan and Liriano have produced at an elite level, while Bonser appears to be sticking in the Twins rotation this year.

Haren's been fantastic, but Calero was replaceable, and Barton hasn't made it out of the minors and he appears to be going backwards.

Plus Mulder contributed quite a bit in '05, whereas Pierzynski never gave the g-men anything except a big headache.

Both were one-sided trades but Barton has to do something before the As-Cards deal acheives historic lopsided-ness...

by guayzimi on May 21, 2007 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Additionally
we're going to get 4 years from Mulder (well, 3 if you subtract injuries) and they got 1 from Pierzynski.  When we get rid of Mulder, we'll trade him for something or lose him as a FA and receive a draft pick(s) as compensation.  They dfa'd Pierzynski and got squat!

by chuckb on May 21, 2007 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Time for a radical upgrade at AAA
"when you restock your roster year after year with players aged 30 and older, sooner or later the team's gonna end up where the cards are --- old, broken down, and lazy. the cardinals are trying to break that cycle, and --- painful though it may be in the short term --- it's the only way they can stay competitive in the long run."  -  Larry Boros

I agree with your assessment, Larry.  And I believe the fastest remedy would be for the Cardinals, unless they are miraculously 5 games over .500 by mid-July, to radically overhaul the team with talented, younger, healthier more motivated players, by trading several over-30 players for AAA players if necessary to get high quality prospects, rather than settling for lesser talented ML players.  This would be the most graceful way to send these Cardinals off, perhaps to have a Will Clark kind of resurgence for some contender in the late season and playoffs, so that the Cardinals would be doing both these individual players and the Cardinal organization a favor:

Rolen
(If the Cardinal clubhouse and executive suite remain as miserable as they have been, perhaps Scott would agree to go to a Southern California contender.)

Isringhausen
(His body is held together by modern science.  He's strong and sharp right now.  He be most valuable to a contender.)

Looper
(Over 30, with stock as high as it will ever be.)

Ekstein
(Get what they can before his contract ends this October.)

Encarnacion
(If he slugs .500 as he did last summer, some team might give up a good AAA talent for him.)

Edmonds
(He's been great for us but it's time for him to go.)

The last two months of this season would be an opportunity to audition younger players for roles in 2008:

Schumaker, cf
(He hit well last month, when he started, could be an excellent reserve outfielder in 08).

Ankiel, rf
(If he continues to hit home runs and raise his average, he should get a full-time ML test.)

Cate in the bullpen
(He's been exceptional in that role, much better than in his starts.)

Narveson in the rotation
(If he continues to pitch even close to the level he has reached in his last several starts, he should get an audition in the ML.)

Edgar Gonzales, utility if
(His OPS at Memphis is over .800.)

One or two of the excellent AAA players acquired might also be brought up, at least by September.

It would be much more fun to watch those highly motivated younger players test their mettle and develop than to watch the five departed, deflated, older players play out the season with less and less reason to be motivated over time.

by CardsWin on May 21, 2007 1:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Correction - Hawksworth, not Narveson
Oops.  I meant Hawksworth, not Narveson.

by CardsWin on May 21, 2007 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

More cash for free agents in 08
Footnote: Removing the five selected over-30 players from the roster would also free up plenty of cash to buy top free agents for 2008.

And in 2008 and beyond the Cardinal system would have a greater number of excellent prospects ready for promotion to the NL than they would without these trades.  

by CardsWin on May 21, 2007 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Anyone watch Baseball Tonight last night?
They actually provided decent analysis of Pujols and his struggles.

They put video from this time in 2006 (well, before the DL) and from this time in 2007.

What they found was Pujols has changed his stance and the way he holds his bat.  He has changed his 'base' in what appears to be an attempt to generate more power when he swings.

This has caused him to 'move his head' when he tries to swing.  He's not seeing the ball all that well because his head is no longer still when he swings.  It causes him to miss high fastballs and not pick up breaking pitches as well as he used to.

Also, his hands are lower, again to have a quicker bat (more power) instead of higher where they were last year.  With the higher bat, he was 'coming down' on the ball which insured more linedrives than popups.

Thought it was very interesting stuff.

We aren't very good.

by Hardcore Legend on May 21, 2007 1:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I did
And had much the same reaction as you.  Really telling I thought.

Could he be trying to cheat for his power to compensate for a weakness or an injury perhaps (I know the oblique has been mentioned...)

2006 World Champs! Inconceivable! You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

by BozCardsFanSF on May 21, 2007 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting
If he is indeed attempting to generate more power, I wonder if it is conscious, designed to compensate for power that was sapped by the oblique injury, or unconscious--perhaps an unwitting reaction to getting shafted in the MVP vote due to Howard's lofty HR total.  

by blove121 on May 21, 2007 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

VERY interesting...
I blame last year's ridiculous MVP voters.
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on May 21, 2007 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And I refuse to change my signature.
I am still in the grace period after last year's series.
2006 World Champs! Inconceivable! You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

by BozCardsFanSF on May 21, 2007 1:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

In my mind,
they've got the whole summer. But next year better kick ass.
Everybody off the bandwagon!

by Alxfritz on May 21, 2007 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rolen / Clubhouse / LaRussa
So are we throwing out the possibility then that Rolen hates LaRussa so much that he is giving away at bats on purpose, hoping that TLR gets fired due to poor overall team performance?

Sure, that's counterproductive as all hell, but it wouldn't be the first time that someone exhibited self-destructive behavior in order to hurt someone else...

by sgfcards on May 21, 2007 2:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

dodging the bullet
on weaver...

VIA MLB trade rumours, the LA Times asked WJ and he confirmed that we have no interest in him. The recurring nightmares involving joe mather in seattle blue can finally cease.

Don't Panic!!!

by SleepyCA on May 21, 2007 2:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

At this point,
if Seattle asks for ANYTHING better than a 30-year-old in A-ball, I'd hang up.

by craig3410 on May 21, 2007 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The only real thing that has kept my interest
so far this year, as people have said, is the young guys. The whole year Reyes has been given all kinds of hell about his pitch count. Well, Saturday he went out and (despite giving up a ton of runs) he lowered his pitch count to about 80 pitches through 6. Duncan and Thompson are exciting to watch; TJ coming out of the 'pen with his nasty hooks. Even Yadi might be starting to put a little something together with his hitting streak.

What can I say though, I like watching young kids develop into legitimate major leaguers almost as much as watching winning baseball. In my mind, I'm happy I can at least watch one of the above.

by TICY on May 21, 2007 2:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Bullpen strategy?
I wonder if the Cardinals should pursue more of a "bullpen" strategy in attacking opponents. Most teams in the central division, it seems, have less deep and generally weaker bullpens.    In those games where we've driven up the other sides pitch count, we've done pretty well in the end.  

Of course, that's easiest to do with lots of hits, which we've only had in recent games.  But better fights at bat, with high foul and ball counts, has worked as well.  For a team that lacks power right now, a combination of hitting singles and battling at the plate could be a winning combination to get late victories from dueling bullpens.  It might not be pretty; but it could work.  

The other upside to using a bullpen strategy is that we could lean on their arms earlier in the game.  I don't think our new pitchers have the long-term endurance to throw past the sixth, unless they are extremely efficient.  This could be a better way to condition new pitchers.  And whether we win the division or not, better conditioning of their arms seems like a wise stategy.  

by nycardfan on May 21, 2007 2:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i just cant buy the fact
that rolen is injured.  I thought this was supposed to be his most healthy season in a few years.  A year removed from surgery and a 100% healthy rolen in ST made me (and i think most cardinal nation) believe that he would hit 30-35 homeruns.  There has to be something in his approach or stance i think...and it may be b/c i like him so much, but i refuse to believe that rolen is the kind of player to take a personal grudge onto the field and affect his performance and the teams.  It would seem he is being awfully cavalier with a lot of people's job for some 3rd grade kind of grudge.

also...if the geniuses from baseball tonight can figure out what is wrong with pujols' stance...surely our hitting coach and el hombre himself can figure it out....right??

by Dave0585 on May 21, 2007 2:47 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Edmonds and the Hummel Article
Agreed, the Casey fly ball was bad.

But let's face the music, Hummel.  The Cards are this bad as a TEAM.  Mentioning Edmonds is one thing, but devoting 2/3 of your article to his misplays and LaRussa is foolish.

The team can't hit.  Had we scored 5 runs in  the first 7 innings instead of 2, this wouldn't have been a big deal.  

Every player is underperforming this season, in large part due to age and injury.  

I have criticized Edmonds play for the past 3 years... we should have never even considered the off-season signing.  (Not that my idea of Roberts and Schmidt was better than an Edmonds/#4 starter at this point.)  But don't just rag on one man, there are 25 players and several coaches that to direct your anger at, not just Edmonds.

by DuncanDipper on May 21, 2007 2:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Article was legit
Especially in light of last week's comment from Edmonds that "this is a different team" than the bunch that consistently played a "Hard 9" the last few years.  Given that most of the players are the same, that seemed to be a shot at the manager and his leadership.  Now the manager is shooting back, calling Edmonds on catchable balls (and, you'll recall, he called out Edmonds last year, too, telling him via the newspaper to "play like a $10M player" if he wanted an extension).

It's something the two of them probably should not be playing out in the media, but if they are going to do it then Hummel should by all means report it.   Personally, I think he is being very restrained--a lesser writer would be doing tabloid-style "Tony Fires Latest Salvo in Clubhouse Feud with 'The Center Fielder'" stories.

I didn't see the article as Hummel calling out Edmonds in particular, but rather subtly highlighting the ongoing "feud" between him and the manager.  

by blove121 on May 21, 2007 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The odd thing is that
through all I can tell, Edmonds is the only guy holding this team together.  Pujols is LaRussa's homey, so to speak.  Rolen and LaRussa don't even talk to each other in the dugout.

Edmonds appears to be friends with Duncan, Kennedy, the bullpen guys, Bennett, etc.  He's the one that came up with the 'game ball' idea from last year that helped the team get through a terrible stretch of play.

I think the riff isn't Edmonds lack of production or degrading skills.  I think the problem is that LaRussa sees himself losing his team to Edmonds leadership and it is pissing him off.  

Edmonds was the one that told the players to get on the bus after the funeral, Edmonds was the one that drove all the way out to Scott Rolen's farm to tell him that Hancock had died.  Edmonds is the one seen in the dugout chatting up the young guys when they come in from the field or between batting stints.

I'd imagine LaRussa's grip on this team is on it's last fingernail.  Pujols is probably the only thing keeping the clubhouse being soundly against LaRussa.  If Pujols went on a longterm DL stint, and wasn't with the team, I'd wager Tony's resignation wouldn't be far behind.

I don't blame Tony, I think the stress is getting to him.  I'd never seen him carry on like he did this weekend when we blew the lead yesterday.  Throwing stuff in the dugout and kicking the railing doesn't strike me as his typical MO.  I think the poor decisions (imho) he made in some of the last 6 or so games that cost the team probably 2 or 3 wins coupled with some horrid play is wearing him out.

We aren't very good.

by Hardcore Legend on May 21, 2007 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think
you -- and all of us, really -- are looking too deeply into things. This team isn't that good; we, the teams fans, projected them to win, what, like 88 games? If everything fired together, maybe 93? It's not a well built team -- they shouldn't be this bad, but they aint good.

40% of this baseball team -- and of all baseball teams, really -- have no idea where they will be playing next year. They'll either be traded or sign elsewhere; it's the nature of the beast. To think these guys are distracted about who they may be playing under next year is close to absurd. The only guys who own property in the area are jim, albert, izzy, and rolen. Nearly everyone else rents; they know they're nothing more than moveable pieces... It's a business, someone else wants you more, you're moving on.

I find it hard to believe they're more preoccupied with their manager leaving at the end of the year than they are they might be out this summer. They're pros, they know they may be gone next year (or this) and their skipper may be as well.

I don't see this year being a product of bad blood between the players and the staff, I think it comes down to the fact we have below average-to-bad players at 2B, SS, 3B, RF, CF, and (recently) SP.

Everybody off the bandwagon!

by Alxfritz on May 21, 2007 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think the impending loss of LaRussa
is distracting them.  I think the belief that he is leaving could be contributing to a potential 'I'm a proffesional baseball player, I'll do it my way since you aren't going to be here much longer'.

While EVERY player could be gone next year, contractually:

Pujols
Rolen
Edmonds
Carpenter
Reyes
Wainwright
Molina
Mulder
Looper
Izzy
Kennedy
Spiezio
Flores
JuanEnc
TJ
Taguchi
Bennett
Thompson

...are all under Cardinal control for the 2008 campaign.

When you've got 18 pairs of eyes that know they've probably got a better shot of being here this time next year than you do, how much weight do you really carry?

The 'my way' approach towards guys like Wainwright and Reyes probably starts to lose it's weight.  Guys like Edmonds and Rolen blow it off as 'rah-rah' talk from a lameduck manager.

That's more as to what I am talking about.

I don't think there is a single player on the team 'tanking' games.  That isn't my contention.  However, I begin to question LaRussa's ability to motivate the players that have more longevity at this point than he does.

It's all idle speculation, of course.

We aren't very good.

by Hardcore Legend on May 21, 2007 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Man
thats a lot of guys back. I was really surprised to see the whole bench and bullpen come back from last year (I'm pretty sure thats the first time LaRussa/Jocketty have done that here), and seeing guys like So, Spiez, and Bennett already have a deal for next year is pretty odd. No offense to those them, but they seem like ideal candidates for one year contracts.
Everybody off the bandwagon!

by Alxfritz on May 22, 2007 3:07 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed
I knew that Spezio was a 2-year deal but thought that So and Bennett are both 1-year.  Maybe there's a club option for a second year?  I'd be shocked if we gave those guys 2 years.

by wildman on May 22, 2007 6:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

they're all under control of the cardinals
some are arbitration eligible like Gooch & TJ.  They don't all have contracts yet though.

by azruavatar on May 22, 2007 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

mid life crisis?
it makes sense to me too. this and the natural cause of aging, the injuries specially to the core players, the fact that they may have been coming too soon back from the DL, the tragic losing of a fellow player, the psychological edge of opponent teams wanting to beat up the ws winners,...

all those little things (and many others stated before on this board) contribute to a much bigger problem than the individual parts of the problem. everywhere people is having fun with the Cards strugling, while we Cardinal fans are feeling down.

i don't know if there is a baseball mid life crisis (bmlc), but i'm willing to believe the likes of edmonds, rolen and even pujols come to a point that winning the ws puts them in a kind of bmlc. if they can surmount this, they'll become really greats; otherwise we could say their baseball careers have been nice.

a little spark can turn things around, but who knows if the mv3 won't spark at the same time, making the struggles to continue.

From CuraƧao, the friendly island in the Caribbean

by Johnny64 on May 21, 2007 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

On the draft
Larry, good stuff, as usual.

It's not the money. The Cards payroll is $90 MM plus, in the same neighborhood as last year. There were no good buys last offseason (and history shows there are rarely many really good buys; many teams end up with a bad case of buyer's remorse.

It really comes down to the core, the five guys with the big money. Can't fault Izzy; he's done the job. Albert shows signs of life. Carpenter is hurt. But Edmonds and Rolen are the holes in the #4 and #5 slots that Hummel writes about (or maybe it was Bernie?).

In retrospect, the Edmonds contract (the 2000 version, not the 2007 version), was a big risk and even bigger reward. Edmonds was the best CF of 2000 to 2006, even with his falloff. Is there any magic left in his bat? Every day suggests no.

The falloff of Rolen is more perplexing. You have more hope that his bat is only on hiatus as opposed to being permanently squelched.

Bernie wrote last August about giving the young pitchers a chance, which is exactly what the Cards are doing right now. And those young pitchers are taking their lumps, which is often the case also (and yes, I'm sure Walt regrets trading Haren).

I still think some of the farm issues--perhaps a lot--is because of the success. The Cards have drafted no higher than #19 since 2000--and more often than not it's late in the first round. When the Verlanders are gone long before the Cards have been drafting, you have to be luckier at finding the guys who are skipped over (like Haren, who went 2nd (he was 72nd overall).

But if the Cards are to do anything in 2007, they need to get a move on over the next month.

Dave

by Sydney dave on May 21, 2007 3:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

No worries
once Edwards gets back, this team will be in good shape.
Everybody off the bandwagon!

by Alxfritz on May 21, 2007 4:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Edmonds/Rolen/TLR
I agree with some other posts that Edmonds is the obvious leader on this team and probably has more influence than TLR on many players (especially young ones).  

Also, because Edmonds missed spring training, it's not really fair to compare his performance with others at this time--let's give him another month and then make a fair comparison.  

With that being said, I still see signs that Edmonds is heating up.  Commentators have spoken frequently about his swings looking stronger and his ability to pull the ball where he wants--both left and right.  

I have faith that he will continue to improve.  But even if he doesn't, his leadership may still make him an invaluable asset right now.  

I also don't think Rolen is performing poorly because of TLR.  His tiff with TLR demonstrated his pride in his performance.  He's not going to self-destruct to make some sulking point.  I think he's trying the best he can and I'm sure his lack of performance is very hard on him.  I just wish he would sit down and rest for a game or two (or a week or two).  

by nycardfan on May 21, 2007 5:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Rolen
Scotty didn't take the money Philly offered because he didn't want to play there, that shows integrity.  I'm saying that to point out that I don't think he would intentionally under-perform to make a point like some junior-high tiff.  

by cardsgirl95 on May 21, 2007 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have always gotten the feeling
that J'Ed is an leader on the team, but a relutant one.

by Zubin on May 22, 2007 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ankiel
ankiel throws out the lead runner at second tonight on a single to centerfield.  Gotta love that arm.

by gdowdy3 on May 21, 2007 8:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

huh?
do you mean he was forced at 2nd on a single to center or the hitter got a single and was trying to stretch it into a double when Ankiel threw him out?

If he forced the runner on 1st, that's bodacious!

by chuckb on May 21, 2007 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bodacious it is
Nashville Bottom 2nd

Defensive Substitution: Brian Esposito replaces catcher Matt Pagnozzi, batting 8th, playing catcher.
Joe Dillon grounds out, shortstop Brendan Ryan to first baseman Rico Washington.
Andy Abad singles on a line drive to center fielder Skip Schumaker.
Vinny Rottino reaches on missed catch error by second baseman Edgar V Gonzalez, assist to shortstop Brendan Ryan. Andy Abad to 3rd.
Charles Thomas lines into a force out, right fielder Rick Ankiel to second baseman Edgar V Gonzalez. Andy Abad scores. Vinny Rottino out at 2nd. Charles Thomas to 1st.
Ozzie Chavez bunt grounds out, pitcher Mike Parisi to first baseman Rico Washington.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=g_log&gid=2007_05_21_mrbaaa_nasaaa_1&a mp;did=t235&sid=t235

He's an adventure - he also walked, got caught stealing home, and singled in what turned out to be the game winning run.

Skippy also homered in a 6-4 Redbird win.  Parisi's line looks pretty decent as well.  2 walks and a homer given up, but only 3 hits.

by wildman on May 21, 2007 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hard to tell
from a Gameday description.  Maybe the runner held up thinking Ankiel was going to catch the liner...

by ArkansasTravs on May 22, 2007 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rasmus
Project Prospect has updated their Top 50 Prospects list and have moved Rasmus up to number 11.

Also, Jamie Garcia has cracked the list at number 45.

When's the last time the Cards had two guys on any list?

by Big Red on May 21, 2007 9:39 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Also
Bryan Anderson was listed in the Honorable Mention.  And if it's listed by ranking, he'd be listed 53rd.

by Big Red on May 21, 2007 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The previous weeks notes for Rasmus
"Colby's dad told me that even he is amazed by how well his son is playing"

Sounds like there may be a little bias, but I guess if Bruce is good enough for 5th Rasmus shouldn't be too far behind.

by El Hombre on May 22, 2007 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Phil Cuzzi
Phil Cuzzi just blew two calls in the same inning in the White Sox game.  And, he's the 3rd base umpire.  That's hard to do.

At least he screws some other team once in a while.  

by raisin on May 21, 2007 10:59 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The Angels
Supposedly the Angels are willing to give up Brandon Wood for Garrett Atkins.....

Who was Garrett Atkins before last year?

Well this year he's gold ol .234/.315/.354

That's not a LOT better than Rolen and I'm sure scotty's better on the defensive end.

Atkins is only under contract for this year at 400k.

I'm sure if we could get involved we'd have to pay a chunk of rolen's contract.  Fine by me if we acquire a prospect like Wood.

I enjoyed Rolen when he was playing baseball (I don't know what he's doing now).  But I'd be willing to part with him and still pay 50% or so of his contract.

by JxMetal on May 21, 2007 11:17 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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