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our jay will come

you'll definitely want to read ken rosenthal's piece on the state of the cardinals --- provocative musings about la russa, the owners, and the front office, which rosenthal calls "a house divided." it all rings true; indeed, none of this is really news. but the article does a pretty good job of connecting up and contextualizing some of the tidbits and hints and whispers that have surrounded this organization for the past year and a half. rosenthal overstates the sense of foreboding, in my opinion --- but he accurately captures the choices, and possible changes, this franchise will have to confront in the not-distant fuure.

speaking of the not-distant future (please forgive the cheesy segue), i had a chance to talk to rapid riser jon jay on monday afternoon. at this time last year, jay was playing college ball for the miami hurricanes; by this time next year, there's an outside chance that he could be vying for a roster spot in st louis. the cards took him in the 2d round of last june's draft, one round after selecting jay's college teammate chris perez. jay made the leap directly from college ball to full-season class A and proved up to that difficult challenge, hitting .342 / .416 / .462 in 60 games at quad cities. based on that performance, baseball america rated him the #5 prospect in the organization this spring, and the 2d-best hitting prospect behind colby rasmus. john sickels lists jay as one of the top 50 hitting prospects in the minors, and PECOTA rates him as the 13th-best corner-outfield prospect in the minors (for context, PECOTA rates rasmus as the 13th-best centerfield prospect).

the cards challenged jay again this spring, advancing him straight to double A; he got off to a slow start but has started to warm up with the weather. before an injury on may 3 he had hit in 9 consecutive games, lifting his average to .234. he hasn't played since, but is expected back in the next few days.

you might recall that erik manning posted an illustrated breakdown of jay's swing here a few months ago; worth another look. my subjective impression of the kid after talking to him for 15 minutes: hard worker, not flashy, all business. if he gets to the big leagues, he'll fit right in in st louis. my thanks to mike lindskog of the springfield cardinals for facilitating this interview:

how'd you hurt yourself?
i jammed my shoulder sliding into third base.

and what kind of timetable are you on for getting back out there?
it's just day by day. i'm just trying to get stronger.

leading up to that injury, it looked like you had a pretty good little streak going after kind of a slow start --- 9-game hitting streak. had you made any adjustments?
yeah, i just got off to a slow start, but you gotta keep working every day. i was just working on little things and stuff was starting to come around for me. hopefully when i come back i can continue on where i left off.

when you say "working on little things," are you talking about the mechanics of your swing? do you mean working on the mental approach? certain types of pitches or pitchers that you are trying to improve your game against?
no, my timing was just a little off in the beginning. i'm just trying to get into a good routine here and just try to roll it along.

you've made a couple of big jumps --- from college to A ball, and then skipping high A and going straight up to double A. can you tell the difference being at a higher level?
it's just that there's less mistakes the higher up you go. people are more consistent, that's what the big difference is. in A ball last year, people had a lot of talent and stuff, but it's just about honing your skills and being more consistent, and guys are more consistent here. that's the big difference.

you've been a pro for less than a full year. in that short span of time, is there a certain part of your game where you feel you've made a lot of improvement already?
i think i've improved in all areas. every day i try to work on something and just try to get better with it, whether it's defense, baserunning, or hitting. i think my overall game has expanded, and i'm just going to keep honing my skills.

most of the people who read my site are familiar with your name and your stats, but they haven't necessarily seen you play. do you have anyone who you can compare yourself to as a ballplayer?
i'm not sure. i'm just a guy who's trying to get on base, hit line drives, and play good defense. i'm not real big on trying to hit home runs and stuff like that, but i'm just the type of player who tries to do all the little things to help my team win.

but you do have some pop in your bat --- all throughout college and last year at A ball you got a decent number of extra-base hits, and even this year when you started to heat up you had a couple of triples and a homer during that hitting streak. so you don't just go up there trying to hit singles.
yeah, i just try to go up the gap, try to hit some doubles and triples.

is that how you hurt yourself, sliding into third on one of those triples?
yeah, on a triple.

sorry about that.
'salright.

was there a ballplayer you idolized growing up as a kid --- somebody you always wanted to be like on the field?
ken griffey jr is one of those guys who when you were younger you always looked up to and stuff, but i just liked watching games and trying to pick something up from everyone. i used to like david justice a lot when i was young --- i was a big braves fan growing up in miami, because we didn't have a team until the marlins came. i liked him a lot, but i was just a big fan of the game.

you must have been about 10 years old or so when the marlins came?
yeah i was pretty young, and i enjoyed going to those games a lot. we used to go to those games often.

and they won a world title when you were probably a teenager back in '97.
yeah, in '97. and i remember the '03 one too; i was in high school, so that was a good experience.

last year you played a full college season, which is about 70 games, and then you played 60 games in a-ball. how'd you feel by the end of the year?
i felt fine. i think i do a pretty good job in the off-season of getting myself ready, and i felt fine.

had you played in the cape cod league or anything during your summers in college?
no, but i got to play for Team USA the summer before my junior year [ie, the summer of 2005]. that prepared me a lot. we got to travel all throughout the country; we got to go to japan and taiwan. i think that really helped me get prepared for pro ball.

what did you do this past off-season to get ready for 2007?
i took about a month off, and then i lifted and ran about 4 days a week. then i got into my hitting routine and went from there.

were you back home in miami for that?
yeah, i worked out in miami, back at school, with a trainer and a group of guys. we had a good time getting ready for the season.

were you working out with any of your teammates from the cardinal organization? old teammates from college? or some of both?
some of both. chris perez is down there, and he's kind of on a different program because he's a pitcher. but there's a group of minor leaguers [from various organizations] that are down there in miami, so we worked out, and i spent some time with my ex-teammates just helping them out any way i could.

you and perez have been together all throughout the minors and college; has it been helpful to have a familiar face around as you go up the chain?
yeah, it has been helpful. it's funny because me and chris have actually been together since our senior year in high school. every summer we've been together and every spring. it's been neat to have him. we both know each other's game, and we both help each other out when one of us is doing something we shouldn't be doing on the field.

this spring you got to experience your first spring training as a professional. did you get a chance to take any swings against any of the big leaguers?
i didn't get to take any swings against the big-league pitchers, but just being at the complex i got to see how the big-leaguers work and go about their business. so it was a good experience.

you've got a big-leaguer on your team right now --- juan encarnacion has been down at springfield for 10 days or so. what have you learned from him?
aw, he's a great guy. he goes about the game the right way. he's a quiet guy. he's always even-keeled, and that's one of the things that can get you to the next level --- just being level-headed. he's just a great example for players like myself and my teammates.

how much does the organization talk to you guys about the cardinals' need for outfielders? there's a real opportunity at the big-league level --- is that drilled into you, or do they just let it ride?
they just let it ride. we're not concerned about that right now. obviously our main goal is to make it to the big leagues, but we know we gotta work on things right here. we're not prepared yet, so we're trying to work on things that can help us get there.

that's a pretty good outfield you guys have this year at springfield.
yeah, it is. it's a lot of fun playing out here. with rass in center and joe in right sometimes, it's a great outfield we have.

and there are a couple of old hands on the roster who've been in the minors a couple of years longer than you, haerther and gorecki --- is it helpful to have some veterans around?
yeah. gorecki's great. he's always teaching us little things that can maybe help us out. he's a great teammate to have. we all respect him very much.

you following the hurricanes this spring?
yeah, i still follow them. a lot of those guys are my good friends, and i'm always rooting them on. they're doing alright; they'll probably get into the tournament and hopefully our postseason success can continue this year.

hopefully your own success will continue too. a lot of st louis fans are watching your progress. get back out on the field soon. thank you, i appreciate it.

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Marquis
Anyone else see this Marquis quote?

"I knew I had a no-hitter going," he said. "I pitch to contact. Guys are going to find holes. My goal is to win ball games, not throw no-hitters."

Sure, take Duncan's methods to heart a year later...

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-nlrdp&prov=ap&type=lgns

by Robb on May 10, 2007 9:02 AM EDT   0 recs

Ah...
he's full of crap. 22 balls were put in play and 15 of them were in the air. I didn't see the game, but if Jason Marquis throws 72 strikes and none of them are sinkers on a consistent basis, he'll eventually get lit up like a Christmas tree...

by guayzimi on May 10, 2007 9:21 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Marquis
I was at the game, and from my vantage in the upper deck, Marquis looked good. There were definitely balls hit in the air, but very few of them were the result of good contact. Far more pop-ups than line drives.

Far more important: he was throwing strikes and working efficiently. None of the messing around we saw last year--I don't think he walked anyone, and (I say without consulting my scorecard) I don't think he even came that close.

Having watched him in St. Louis, I'm with the rest of you in thinking he can't keep this up. But he was very, very good last night.

Oh, and we were out of there by 9:15, and that was with Jim Tracy dragging out the 9th with a pitching change and some mound chatter.

by levistahl on May 10, 2007 9:25 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

a few clues
marquis is allowing a BABIP of .202 ---- obviously that can't be sustained. league average is about .290 - .300; his career average is .285.

also, he's allowing 0.38 homers per 9 innings; his career average is 1.24. insofar as he still isn't getting groundballs consistently, that number is bound to rise as well.

the one thing marquis is doing well so far this year is avoiding walks; he's at 2.45 per 9, or 1 walk per 9 below his career average. that conceivably is a sustainable change, but once some of those batted balls start to find holes and the flyballs start to leave the park, marquis might revert to his nibbling form.

clearly he's a better pitcher this year than last. but there's no way he can sustain this level of performance indefinitely.

by lboros on May 10, 2007 9:36 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Not to mention
An 82.9% LOB and a 3.8%(!) HR/FB.  It's just a matter of time.
Pujols < .300 (it worked for .200)

by joker24 on May 10, 2007 12:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'll defer...
to you since you saw it. His line certainly looks pristine. But he must have been up in the zone to get those pop ups...

If he finds success with the sinker it's one thing because he's been successful with that in the past, but a Marquis that blows guys away is an entirely new thing.

Also, it's the Pirates. How bad are they offensively?
The Cardinals actually have 12 more walks than they do and 75 fewer strike outs. The Cards team OBP is .310, the Pirates' is .294...

by guayzimi on May 10, 2007 9:41 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The whispering among Cub fans
is that Marquis was hurt last year and either didn't say or the Cards staff didn't know.

by sdrone on May 10, 2007 10:31 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re Rosenthal's article
DeWitt would have to be crazy to let Jocketty go, regardless of where Larussa goes at the end of this season.  Wouldn't he?

by jfs on May 10, 2007 9:24 AM EDT   0 recs

That was my thought too
I still think TLR/Jocketty will find a way to right the ship though. It might not be a playoff season but there's no need to get crazy.

by paCardsFan on May 10, 2007 10:02 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Grooming Jocketty's replacement
is just good talent management that any quality organization should do for its key leaders.  Succesion planning 101.  It doesn't mean that they're looking to let Jocketty go - it might just mean that when Jocketty does leave they've got their guy ready to go.  If there's a better candidate in the open market at that point they always have that option, but they aren't forced to if they like what Luhnow offers.  I haven't seen anything out of Jocketty that indicates his unwillingness to incorporate more statistical analysis into the organization.  From an external perspective he seems to have embraced the "go young" philosophy of relying more on the farm system and less on free agents - it would be interesting to know all the internal debates that have gone on about that to know his real opinions there.  In the past his strength seems to be swapping for veterans - in many cases using the farm system - and going forward that skill may not be in demand as much.

by wildman on May 10, 2007 11:23 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

AGREED!
Thanks for taking the time to doit. I love watching that swing analysis!!!!!!!

This guy looks exciting!

by onebigdummy on May 10, 2007 4:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Jay
I believe Jay will be a solid pro.  Has played top flight competition all during his career at Miami and I think as the weather heats up so will Jay.  Here is a piece I did on him:
http://whiteyball.wordpress.com/2007/02/09/jon-jay/

http://whiteyball.wordpress.com

by whiteyball on May 11, 2007 6:38 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

It was a good interview...
but the guy is an absolute cliche machine...

by guayzimi on May 10, 2007 9:42 AM EDT   0 recs

Maybe that's what Gorecki taught him...
Wait, nevermind.  Why would someone interview Gorecki?  

Maybe he watches Bull Durham alot.  

by silent_bob on May 10, 2007 9:58 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Jay....
I saw him early in his career at Quad Cities.  I think that my wife and I might be the first people to ask for his autograph.  Great guy, but the impression I got talking to him and Chris Perez is that Jay is definately quiet.  He was amazed that someone wanted his autograph and was visably stunned.  

But he even showed class in that, a nice, legible autograph right on the sweet spot, plus number.

I think he went 2 for 4 that day with a BB and a couple runs scored.  

by Brock20 on May 10, 2007 10:03 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That's pretty cool
I need to go see Springfield the next time they swing through Frisco. My sleeper who might be stunned by an autograph request but has a legit shot to make it to the show: Jarrett Hoffpauir.

by mikedallas23 on May 10, 2007 10:19 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Jay
Have only been to one Springfield game this year, but I saw Jay's first AA home run and it was an absolute smoke job. A line drive that, if it had hit a person, might have caused some damage. Rasmus hit a bomb in the same game. These guys in Springfield have some holes in their swings, but they can hit a little bit.
"I don't believe what I just saw!" ~ Jack Buck

by itsalemmon1019 on May 10, 2007 11:52 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

brock20, i would concur
he seems like a shy kid. maybe he just doesn't open up to strangers, or maybe he is still young and not all that sure of himself. he grew up in miami and played college ball there; he has been away from home for less than a year. when i was in those shoes i was kinda shy and unsure too.

guayzimi, you are correct about the cliches ---- despite my best efforts, i wasn't able to prod him out of his shell. he gave very short answers to everything; on a couple of occasions, his answers were so short that i'd sit there silent for 4 or 5 seconds, hoping he would feel compelled to keep talking --- but he waited me out every time.

even that can be revealing about a person / player, though . . . .

by lboros on May 10, 2007 11:58 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah...
I wasn't knocking your skills as interviewer or anything like that...

It is important to remember a lot of these kids are closer to high school than adulthood.

by guayzimi on May 10, 2007 2:23 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

interestingly,
gorecki refused to talk to the press after last season when he had a hot april, and fell to bits the rest of the way. does seems sorta shy...all the same it's nice to hear from the players down on the farm.

by erik on May 10, 2007 12:35 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Great point...
Larry, about him being away from home for the first time.  I asked him how the booming metropolis quad of the Quad Cities compared to Miami, and he said something like, "Its different, but everybody is nice."  My wife deemed him sweet.  

Chris Perez was a talker.  Very funny.

I know there at least a few Cards fans in Wisconsin, so I'll pass this tip along.  Go to Beloit  to see the Swing play the Beloit team.  The teams have to walk through the grandstand to get to the dugout.  That's how we got the entire team.

Might want to wait until after the draft though.

by Brock20 on May 10, 2007 12:50 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I talked to Gorecki
he wasn't even a little bit shy. Sadly, he only had about 30 seconds to talk, so it's not an in-depth interview. you can read it here. It's a really short interview.

My magazine is going around to the players and asking them non-baseball questions, which is sort of funny. We've got some in the can with Matt Pagnozzi and some others.

by effin fisk on May 10, 2007 7:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Rosenthal
Good stuff by him, as usual.  Is this "house divided" talk something that everyone here knew about?  

I just don't believe that Jocketty isn't all for integrating more sabermetric analysis into the organization's philosophy.

It's obvious Cardinals are shifting toward the same direction that everyone else in baseball is  going.  I don't necessarily believe that this means that Lunhow is being "groomed" to take Jocketty's spot.  

How the hell would you dump LaJocketty at this point?  That'd be like the Braves dumping Schuerholz and/or Cox after their epic run in the 90's.    

by silent_bob on May 10, 2007 10:03 AM EDT   0 recs

House Divided
That's my question too.  I don't live anywhere near St. Louis, so I wouldn't hear rumors or whispers.  So is there substance to this or just Ken R.'s opinion?  He usually seems reliable.

by cardsgirl95 on May 10, 2007 10:08 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

there's substance to it
in my opinion. john mozeliak had been the presumptive heir to jocketty until last september, when luhnow was given this stunning promotion. mozeliak and la russa are tight, from what i've been told, while the scouting staff and (broadly speaking) minor-league managers/coaches tend to be loyal to luhnow, because he's their boss. jocketty pretty much stays above it all --- i have heard almost the exact words rosenthal uses ("jocketty remains firmly in charge"). rosenthal paints luhnow as a "threat" to jocketty; i could be wrong, but i think that's overstating the case. luhnow's in no position to push walter aside; walter will be there as long as he wants to be.

i've been told that same story, more or less, by half a dozen different people who have come into contact with the organization from various different angles over the last couple of years.

by lboros on May 10, 2007 12:10 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

quoting sam walker
who i interviewed here

"If I had to choose one team to cover right now, I think it would be the Cardinals. I think it's a fascinating time for them right now, because they are at this weird bridge. They've had incredible success, but I think they're at a crossroads in terms of where they're going. They're doing a lot of interesting stuff. There's a very progressive, forward-looking, intellectually curious part of the team, and then there's a very old-fashioned, traditionalist, nothing-new-under-the-sun side. They're coexisting pretty peacefully, but I feel like that whole organization's gonna be vastly different in a few years."

by lboros on May 10, 2007 12:13 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

well
i'm sorta looking forward to a new regime. don't misunderstand me, i love the jocketty/larussa days, they've been mostly sunny overall. it just seems as of late jock can't swing his trader magic, mostly because these teams are having savvy guys like luhnow in the office who can tell a team they are getting bamboozled.

larussa seems to have lost his grip sometime last season on some of the players.

again, don't get me wrong, i like jocketty and i like larussa. the times are changing and with a pretty strict cap on the budget we could use a moneyballer type running the show.

by erik on May 10, 2007 12:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You mention moneyballers...
Does anyone else find it ironic that 2 of the biggest beneficiaries of the Moneyball craze are GM's of teams whose payrolls top $100 mil?

by silent_bob on May 10, 2007 12:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Not at all.
Like most "inovations" competitive advantage can't be sustained for long.  IN the end everybody learns moneyball and money again becomes the deciding factor in sucess.  Reminds me of the early days of the internet to an extent.

by Zubin on May 10, 2007 3:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Touche
Oakland is staying competitive.  Can't say they've upped their payroll considerably.

by silent_bob on May 10, 2007 5:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Missed my point
Management competence and a will to compete (I'm talking to you KC Royals) are obviously important still and in both cases Oakland excels.

My point is that it is no surprise that rich teams like the Red Sox that adopt these philosphies still have an advantage over poorer teams that do the same.  Its not to say all teams with large payrolls will sucessful adopt these ideas, only that the teams that do and have larger payrolls obviously still have an advantage.

by Zubin on May 10, 2007 8:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

fuzzy math
So, in essence, while Rosenthal has all the correct numbers, 2+2 does not yet equal 5?

I must admit, I found the last portion of his article somewhat alarming.  I knew of the promotion for Luhnow, and while I figured he might eventually be next in line, I in no way assumed it was "near-future."  (and, according to Larry, it's not).  

I always thought they'd give Tony another year as a contract extension, and then, if they wanted, both Tony and Walt would sign equal length multi-year deals.  

Perhaps I'm wrong, but I'm not sure who we'd get to replace either one.  That old addage comes to mind:  "If it ain't broke..."   And I certainly think it's too early to call this season broke.    

Duncan 4 Cleanup

by SmashedAtoms on May 10, 2007 6:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I hadn't heard anything
but I live in Chicagoland, so I only know what I read in the Chicago Trib, the Post Dispatch, and here.  Heh.

by sdrone on May 10, 2007 10:32 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Rosenthal
has a knack for making things sound way more dramatic and onimous than they really are.  Notice his paragraphs of doom are always qualitfied by ones that say, "but it might not happen that way". Its the sign of a good and engaging baseball writer - he creates suspense, intrigue, etc.

But - his main point - all this is moot if the cardianls just begin to play better - is a good one.   And that starts on this road trip.

Kippy has to figure out what the $#@* is wrong with him - starting tomorrow.

by cardsfaninmass on May 10, 2007 11:10 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

P-D reporting JuanEnc set to return
possibly as early as Sunday.

And he's bringing his .154 BA, 0 HRs and 4 RBI in 20 games at double A.  Can't wait.

[sarcasm]Hopefully, they'll send Ludwick back down to open a roster spot since we have everything we need in Skip Schumacher[/sarcasm]

by Big Red on May 10, 2007 10:46 AM EDT   0 recs

I was kinda hoping Juan would have a setback
or get DFA'd.  Ludwick has proven he is a more than capable starter.  The boy should have 3 HRs already.  I think there is some kind of headwind only blowing in when the Cardinals bat.

I guess this means Ludwick goes to the bench and Juan returns to start in RF?

Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on May 10, 2007 10:52 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

wrong move!
JuanE should do all 20 games. The wrist is the most complicated joint in the body, and it takes time to heal. Plus we don't need what he can offer.  

 If he does return I hope he stays on the bench. Send Schmuker down, but let Ludwick play!

by nybirdfan on May 10, 2007 11:02 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

20 day rehab
Unfortunately his 20th game will be this Saturday, that's why they are targeting a Sunday return.  I'm hoping Skip is the one sent down too.

by Handsome B Wonderful on May 10, 2007 11:10 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Ludwick
Ludwick is out of options, so hopefully that should keep him safely on the big club since he's off to a decent start. I think Skip should get ready to stop by Lambert's on his way back to Memphis.

by mikedallas23 on May 10, 2007 11:09 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Git you a throwed roll Skippy.
It happened on a Sunday afternoon, August 22, 1982.

by Glenn Brummer stole home on May 11, 2007 7:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

platoon
jimmy and enc in centerfield. keep ludwick and dunc at the corners. That'd be my hope anyway. That way you have a hard hitting lefty, hard hitting righty and 2 vets with pretty good defense (a righty and a lefty) to soak up center field.

by Birds on the Matt on May 10, 2007 11:39 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Interesting...
Haven't thought of that.  It's a good theory.  But Jimmy will not be part of a platoon, what with him making $9 million this year.  JuanE has to earn his way back into the starting lineup, IMHO.  

by silent_bob on May 10, 2007 11:42 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

well
Platoon/earned rest whatever they want to call it :) I think he could probably use some prolonged breaks soon. The amount of rehab while working he's done at the start has to be taking a toll.

by Birds on the Matt on May 10, 2007 11:49 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Schumaker.....
Obviously, he hasn't done much so far, but do we ship him out and keep Wilson & Taguchi? Which is worse - Wilson/Taguchi as 4th & 5th OF or one of them and Schumaker? I'm not a big Skip fan, but he is younger, so there might be a bigger upside. Gooch is probably safe thanks to TLR's mancrush, so what about P-Dub?
Personally, I think we got hosed on that call.

by TurdFerguson on May 10, 2007 1:11 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

P-Dub
I wish Jocketty had the Staples Easy Button and he'd disappear.

by paCardsFan on May 10, 2007 1:27 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Unfairness to Gooch
This has been said before, but it bears repeating:

Gooch is hitting pretty well right now.  He's in the  top five among position player on the team in Average, OBP, Slugging, and OPS.  Here's his line:

Taguchi
Avg .273
Obp .347
Slg .364
OPS .711  

If anyone should be sent down, its Schumaker.  

Schumaker   
Avg .233
OBP .277
Slg .279
OPS .556

As I understand it, he was retained only because we needed a back up for Edmonds.  With Juan, we have that.  

Why we would send Ludwig back down is beyond me.  He's got Skip beat in every category.  In four games, he has an equal number of RBI and HR, and he's only one short on doubles.  Not bad.  His line:

Avg .250          
OBP .294
SLG .313          
OPS .607

So says, The Dude

by Titus Pullo on May 10, 2007 1:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The thing...
with Gooch versus Skip is that the latter might have some untapped potential, whereas Gooch has tapped every last drop of his.

If we're not competing, we should be developing. Both players should be limited to defensive replacement status in any case...

by guayzimi on May 10, 2007 2:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

skip is 27
and only put up an OPS over 800 once, in his repeat of AA.  He's been at 730 2 years in a row in memphis and awful in st louis the last two years.  He is unfortunately in the same position as taguchi when we discuss "untapped potential".
Lutvig walks amongst us!!! (now free j-rod...)

by SleepyCA on May 10, 2007 2:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

fair point
I just thought it was worth asking.  I have no attachment to Skip whatsoever.  Ludwick, on the other hand, belongs on the field at least 5 days a week unless Enc proves he can do something besides swing and miss often.
Personally, I think we got hosed on that call.

by TurdFerguson on May 10, 2007 3:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

100% agree.
Count me a So Taguchi fan.

by Zubin on May 10, 2007 3:48 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Rosenthal and the farm system
Rosenthal writes that Jocketty is constrained "because he gets little help from his farm system".

I always find snippets like that to be amusing.

Yes, the Cards farm system is not a high publicity farm system compared to other teams. But to say there is "little help" is a swing and a miss.

Just look at last year for an example.

First, Chris Duncan was probably the biggest impact player of the second half of last year. He had a .977 OPS after the All-Star Game, 19th best in baseball with a minimum of 200 PAs.

Second, Molina has hardly set the world on fire with his bat, but he did hit the 9th inning HR in Game 7 of the NLCS.

Third, how many of the pitchers last year were from the farm? You can quibble about Wainwright, but he did spend two years in the Cards farm system. Reyes was the WS Game 1 winner, outdueling the #2 overall draft choice. In the bullpen, you had Kinney and Johnson and Thompson (and Flores was hardly an established veteran when the Cards picked him up).

Right now, three-fifths of the Cards' rotation are farm guys, with Reyes, Wainwright, and Thompson. The bullpen is Johnson and Jiminez and Falkenborg (and the aforementioned Flores).

If Rosenthal considers these players to be "little help", I would tend to disagree.

Dave

P.S. Larry, I haven't posted lately, but you are doing a very fine job as usual

by Sydney dave on May 10, 2007 11:05 AM EDT   0 recs

Hear hear!
Though I've long wished our farm system produced more blue-chippers than it does, it's wrong to say that it hasn't had an important role in our success, as you point out.

Rosenthal's article was good, but we've gotta keep some perspective here. That there might be differing agendas in the front office is not that big a deal ... just another day in the life of a high-profile sports team.  And in fact I wouldn't want a front office that is always in lockstep either; a little creative tension is a good thing.

by MdRedbirdFreak on May 10, 2007 11:10 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

On blue-chippers
The Cards' success in the 2000's has penalized their ability to get blue-chippers.

SI recently ran an article on the top 50 players for the next 10 years, by Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus. By the way, a Cardinal farm hand was #1 on the list.

I looked at the list. Of the 50, 28 started their pro career--either via the draft or as NDFA--in the 2000's.

Five of the 28 were NDFAs, four from the Carribean (Cabrera, Cano, F. Hernandez, H. Ramirez) and Dice-K. The Cards could be doing more in the Carribean, without a doubt. As to spending $100 MM on Dice-K, that wasn't going to happen.

That leaves 23 drafted players on the top 50 list. The Cards, in the 2000's, have not had a top 10 draft pick. In 2000 they drafted 13th, and 2004 19th; otherwise it was 28 (2001, 2003, 2005), or 30 (2006). In 2002 the first pick was in the third round (the first two rounds were for signing Izzy and Martinez, IIRC).

How many of the 23 did the Cards have a chance at?

Nine.

That leaves 14 of the top 50--the blue chippers--that the Cards did not have a chance at because they were drafted prior to their initial draft position?

Who were those 14?

Upton, Verlander, Fielder, Teixiera, D. Young, Lincecum, Kazmir, Bonderman, Hamels, Gordon, Zimmerman, McCann (2nd round in 2002, when Cards only had a 3rd round pick), and Mauer.

It's hard to fault the Cards for not having "blue-chippers" when the top value in the draft is in the top 10 picks, and the Cards don't have a top ten pick because of their success.

Dave

by Sydney dave on May 10, 2007 12:10 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Barton was a blue chip...
now and before he was traded... And, though I can't remember how highly Haren was touted, he's obviously a great young talent.

Sorry to bring up these names. Barton is sporting a 700 ops if it makes anyone feel better...

by guayzimi on May 10, 2007 2:27 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Barton was the 28th Pick
I wouldn't consider the number 28 pick overall to be a "blue chipper", because 27 teams didn't consider him to be one.

As to Haren, that is indeed history. Plus, he was a 2nd round pick, so again not that highly regarded. Perhaps Walt was willing to include Haren because he had gotten Wainwright in the Drew trade (just speculation on my part). Plus, he thought Mulder was a missing ingredient to win a WS.

Dave

by Sydney dave on May 10, 2007 4:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

My definition of
"blue chipper" is a guy who is a blue chipper in the majors, e.g., Pujols, Mike Piazza, etc., regardless of his draft order.

by MdRedbirdFreak on May 10, 2007 11:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

WOW!
AWESOME! That was a great great post! I really got how much the CARDS have just been killing it over the last several several years!

by onebigdummy on May 10, 2007 4:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Also, while they were reaquired
Looper and Kennedy were both former Cardinals farm hands.

Players on roster that have spent time in the Cardinals Farm System (not for rehab)

Albert Pujols
Adam Kennedy
Chris Duncan
Ryan Ludwick
Skip Shumaker
Yadier Molina
Braden Looper
Adam Wainwright
Anthony Reyes
Brad Thompson
Brian Falkenborg
Kelvin Jimenez
Tyler Johnson

13 players on our 25 man roster come from the Cardinals farm system (unless I missed something).

Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on May 10, 2007 11:12 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Add So and Flores to your list
Make it 15; So Taguchi obviously was part of the farm system for a period, and Randy Flores pitched much of 2004 at Memphis.

Josh Kinney, on the DL, would be another player on the roster (but obviously not the 25 man roster at this point).

Dave

by Sydney dave on May 10, 2007 1:05 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Jay's injury
If he injured his shoulder sliding into third base, let this be a lesson to all budding ballplayers:

DO NOT slide head-first, under any circumstance.

Also, I finally got around to reading "Fantasyland." Great read, by the way. I plowed through it in like three days.

One of Sam Walker's "employees" in the book, Sig Mejdal, is now the Cards' "senior quantitative analyst." Walker made Mejdal seem exceedingly brilliant, if a bit eccentric. Definitely a Luhnow guy.

by 26thMan on May 10, 2007 11:19 AM EDT   0 recs

JJ
John Jay strikes as someone who is wise beyond his years. I am glad he is in our organization.

by Hungry Jack on May 10, 2007 11:28 AM EDT   0 recs

i do find it scary
that guys like Jon Jay are looking up to juan encarnacion as a role model...  as much as I supported juan over the last year, his demeanor is not one I want to see at more than one position on the playing field.
Lutvig walks amongst us!!! (now free j-rod...)

by SleepyCA on May 10, 2007 12:27 PM EDT   0 recs

You're assuming that Jay's
answers in that interview offered any insight into what he really thinks about anything.  To me, most of his answers seemed like what he thought the interviewer (or fans) would want to hear.

by MdRedbirdFreak on May 10, 2007 12:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs