What the Starting Rotation is Replacing

I have been reading, LB. Every day. But, law school presents a rigorous schedule which makes doing statistical research and posting comments difficult to squeeze into the schedule. That said, one thing has been on my mind all week: Opening Day. Game 1 of our 162-game long championship defense.

A lot has been written concerning the "Free Agent 3" (FA 3) and I hope that I'm not re-hashing it to no effect, but, all of those dastardly Cubbie fans are harassing me about our pitching staff and I can't, for the life of me, figure out why. What we are replacing in Suppan (Bless his heart), Weaver, and Marquis is nothing spectacular.

To be sure, 80% of our rotation is a question mark with 30% of it becoming full-time rotators for the first time. But, look at the lines of the rotators they are replacing, from best to worst.

SUPPAN

GS:   32
IP:   190
K/9:  4.93
K/BB: 1.51
HR:   21
W/L:  12-7
BAA:  .277
OPSA: .781
ERA:  4.12

WEAVER (WITH THE CARDS)

GS:   15
IP:   83.1
K/9:  4.86
K/BB: 1.73
HR:   16
W/L:  5-4
BAA:  .297
OPSA: .853
ERA:  .5.18

MARQUIS

GS:   33
IP:   194.1
K/9:  4.45
K/BB: 1.28
HR:   35
W/L:  14-16
BAA:  .289
OPSA: .868
ERA:  6.02

To put Suppan, Marquis and Weaver's Batting Avg. Against (BAA) into perspective. The Phillies had the best team batting average in the National League. That average? .276...So, every time Suppan (.277 BAA), Weaver (.297 BAA), and Marquis (.289 BAA) pitched, they were turning the opposing batsmen into the best hitting for average team in the National League. The National League average BAA was .267, which, even Suppan was a solid ten points over.

The OPS allowed by Weaver and Marquis is astonishing. The league average for OPS allowed was .768, which Weaver (.853) was 85 points over. Marquis (.863) was even more ghastly, coming in 95 points over the league average. Offensively, the Phillies also led the National League in team OPS at .794, which, yet again means that Weaver and Marquis were turning the other team into the best offensive team in the National League, in terms of OPS, every time they took the hill.

So, the task before our new rotation is to equal the performance of the 2006 rotation. I have no doubt that they will surpass the 2006 rotation in performance because it would be almost impossible for them not to do so. There is no way that Wells, Reyes, Wainwright, and Looper (yes, even Looper) will outperform Marquis and Weaver. I would even wager that three of the four will equal Suppan in performance statistically.

CAVEAT

Health, as always. Turning two relievers into starters with the other 60% having sketchy injury histories...

THOUGHT:

Imagine penciling in Marquis as your No. 4 starter (for 3 years at about $21M, no less). He wasn't even a No. 6 starter last season. Yet, somehow he locked up a spot in the Cubs' rotation over Mark Prior and Wade Miller. Wow. Maybe they should see if they can get some innings out of Soriano after all, what with them paying him $136M until he's 39 years old...

I now must emerse myself in horribly dry law reading through May 10th. Go Cards!