round and round she goes . . . . .

by lboros on Mar 26, 2007 9:28 AM EDT in News Comment 69 comments

just in time for the latest news about the cards' april rotation: a statty look at something called "starting-pitcher leverage" over at the Hardball Times. what's SP leverage?

Local lore here in Chicago proclaims that [White Sox manager] Al Lopez used staff ace Billy Pierce as often as he could against the best opposing teams---the Yankees and Indians---to give the White Sox a little additional chance. Baseball's memory also tells us that Casey Stengel did the same with Whitey Ford,

everybody get it? rather than waste your best pitcher on weak teams that a lesser hurler can beat, you match him up as often as possible against the toughest opponents; squeeze more marginal wins out of him that way.

according to derrick goold's sunday post at Bird Land about the rotation, tony and dave are practicing a form of leveraging. "The rotation is set as much for who pitches against what team as who doesn't pitch against certain teams or in certain ballparks," goold notes; this remark from La Tony reinforces the point:

"What we've always done (is) you take it out for six weeks and you create what you feel like you could do with starting pitching for every series we play and have a chance to win the series," La Russa said. "The way off days and the matchups fall, we feel this is our best shot."

the Hardball Times piece includes a simple formula for measuring leverage; i thought i'd apply it to the cardinals' early-season rotation to see whom tony and dave are leveraging. to get that little exercise in motion, here are the opponents each starting pitcher will face in his first 6 starts (about 1/5 of the season):

carpenter	mets	astros	pirates	pirates	cubs	cubs
wells	mets	pirates	brewers	cubs	reds	brewers
looper	mets	pirates	pirates	cubs	cubs	brewers
wainwright	astros	brewers	giants	reds	cubs	astros
reyes	astros	brewers	giants	reds	brewers	astros

THT's formula is a simple one: you simply take the average of a given pitcher's opponent teams' winning percentages, and divide that by the winning percentage of all opponents on the team's schedule. let's carpenter as an example, applying 2006 winning percentages just to keep it simple. his 6 opponents had 2006 winning percentages of .599, .506, .414, .414, .407, and .407 --- an average of .458. now divide that by the winning percentage of all st louis opponents --- the cards' first 30 opponents had an average 2006 winning percentage of just .468 --- and you get a quotient of .98. so carp's first six opponents are 2 percent less difficult than the average cardinal opponent during that stretch.

as measured by 2006 winning percentages.

but obviously, this isn't 2006; we just used those figures as an example. to make this slightly more meaningful, let's apply some reasonable projections of 2007 winning percentages and see which pitchers are being leveraged by that standard. i'll go ahead and use the w-l percentages posted in RLYW's Diamond Mind projection blowout last week; i trust those numbers as much as i trust any. here are RLYW's projections for the cards' first 30 opponents:

opp	games	est wpct
mets	3	.525
cubs	6	.519
brewers	6	.500
astros	5	.494
giants	2	.488
pirates	5	.457
reds	3	.451

over the 30 games, that averages out to a .492 winning percentage. now let's look again at which pitchers are facing which teams, and apply the THT leverage formula:

	1	2	3	4	5	6	avg	lev
carpenter	mets	astros	pirates	pirates	cubs	cubs	.495	101
wells	mets	pirates	brewers	cubs	reds	brewers	.492	100
looper	mets	pirates	pirates	cubs	cubs	brewers	.496	101
wainwright	astros	brewers	giants	reds	cubs	astros	.491	100
reyes	astros	brewers	giants	reds	brewers	astros	.487	99

well, wasn't that a worthwhile exercise. . . . . . i'm so glad i went to the trouble. lest the whole thing (and this whole post) be a complete waste of time, let's make a logical adjustment here. leverage can be measured by things other than raw winning percentage. in this case, while the mets have the best projected winning percentage on the st louis schedule, they are definitely not the team the cardinals want the most leverage against --- because they play outside the division. the top nl central rivals --- cubs, astros, and brewers --- are the teams st louis wants the most leverage against. (i'll grant that the cards and mets might end up vying for the wild card --- but the same could be said of all the in-division foes, so that's a wash.) to reflect the greater significance of the games vs the cubs astros and brewers, let's assign a premium --- wild-ass guessing, i'm going to make it .050 of winning percentage --- and recalculate. here's the table, one last time:

	1	2	3	4	5	6	avg	lev
carpenter	mets	astros	pirates	pirates	cubs	cubs	.520	100
wells	mets	pirates	brewers	cubs	reds	brewers	.517	99
looper	mets	pirates	pirates	cubs	cubs	brewers	.521	100
wainwright	astros	brewers	giants	reds	cubs	astros	.524	101
reyes	astros	brewers	giants	reds	brewers	astros	.521	100

dammit . . . . . all that pencil-scratching for nuthin'. that's not to say that tony n dave aren't seeking to exert leverage; they're simply applying different levers from the one described here. e.g., "the astros can't hit a curveball, so let's start wainwright vs them twice," or "wells has a 3.06 career era vs the cubs," that sort of thing . . . . . i prob'y should have spent my time looking into those. have at it in the comments thread, if'n you're interested.

i guess the most significant thing about the way the rotation has been set up is this: chris carpenter will get an extra day's rest 5 times in his first 10 starts. as we discovered during the postseason last year, carpenter thrives on extra rest. his era on extra rest last year (in 7 starts, including world series game 3) was 0.82; his whip was 0.585. he was completely unhittable on 5+ days' rest.

the other great thing about the rotation: it only has to cycle through one more time before the real games begin. st louis plays the marlins today; gameday link here.

0 recs | Comment 69 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Leverage

I think your last idea is probably the closest to the truth. Wainwright has pitched well against Houston in his short career, I believe, and Wells is pretty decent against lefties, I think. I think Duncan and LaRussa are setting up the rotation to get Carpenter extra starts, as well as good off days, early, then filling in whoever they think might have success against a given team. I don't really know, though.

by the red baron on Mar 26, 2007 9:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good point...

That makes a lot of sense Baron, but can I add a corollary to that? In addition, it would make sense to hide, at least early in the season, the shaky young starters (Reyes and Wainwright) in situations that they are less likely to get roughed up so that they can build confidence.

Both of them have only two starts against better than .500 teams.

Me thinks it probably a combination of both, with protecting Carp and getting him starts and days off being the number one priority and protecting the younger kids secondary to that.

by Brock20 on Mar 26, 2007 9:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If they are really shaky,

they will be shaky against anyone. What if they suck against a "shaky" team, wouldn't that be worse for their confidence than getting beat by a good team?

I say, throw the lads right into the fire and see what they have. This is the big leagues!

by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 26, 2007 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually no...

The Baron cleaned up my logic below, but here's the thought, you don't put either Wainwright or Reyes in situation where their tendancies would increase the chance of a poor outing. Don't pitch Reyes in Wrigley for example.

The psych factor on pitchers has been well documented and the thought is not to get their butts handed to them the first couple of weeks so not only are they working on mechanics they are working on their own psych issues.

by Brock20 on Mar 26, 2007 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So I guess pitching

great in the freakin' WORLD SERIES is of less value than struggling through an early April start against the Cubs? Sorry, I don't see either one of these pitchers needing that kind of handling.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 26, 2007 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just had another thought

I think it's interesting that Carpenter, the team's best pitcher, and Looper, a heavier groundball pitcher than the two rooks at least, are each pitching against the Cubs twice. They could be avoiding throwing Reyes in Wrigley, given he's the most vulnerable to the longball. You would think they would try to work Wells against the Cubs, given that they don't appear to be the type of team who's going to take too many walks.

by the red baron on Mar 26, 2007 9:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

but...

you're making the assumption that wrigley, a hitter's park in the summer, is that same hitter's park at the beginning of the season. i don't think it is.

i think that tony really wants to beat the cubs, both because they roughed us up a bit last year, especially early on, and because pinella is their manager. thus, he has carp going twice. you may be onto something with looper; i simply don't understand anything about looper.

satis superque

by ortic jones on Mar 26, 2007 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looper's starts

Looper has two starts against the Cubs and two against the Pirates. The Cubs don't have much from the left side of the plate, and the Pirates only really have Bay and LaRoche.

by RedbirdRay on Mar 26, 2007 9:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Great Point!

Getting Looper out there against teams that cant stack the lineup with Left handed hitters has to be a big consideration for TLR.

2006 Cardinals- An underdog story

by Born in 82 on Mar 26, 2007 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There you go

Another factor to consider. Outstanding point!

by chuckb on Mar 26, 2007 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A couple of other things to consider

1 is home ballparks -- maybe he's more concerned, for example, facing the Cubs in Wrigley vs. Busch so he absolutely doesn't want Reyes to face the Cubs in Wrigley.

You factored in additional leverage vs. the Cubs, Astros, and Brewers, but maybe he doesn't consider the Reds and/or the Pirates "leverage-worthy" at all. IOW, maybe he only considers having his best pitchers facing the best teams and, if we did a mathematical calculation, maybe the Reds and/or Pirates wouldn't be considered at all. Or maybe the Reds would but not the Pirates. Not saying that's the way it should be done, necessarily, but maybe that's the way LaRussa and Duncan look at it.

Hope you don't feel like your time went for naught -- it makes for great discussion and I think you're right -- there is more to it than we're seeing -- the curve ball factor or pitchers' individual stats vs. hitters or teams.

by chuckb on Mar 26, 2007 10:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hahaha!

Don't you just love when a lot of work and research amount to little? Good analysis anyway.

Do you think Tony and Dave Duncan know about Chris Carpenter's koufaxian propensity on extra rest? Maybe they could pitch him 31 times this year instead of 35, and give him 8 of those extra days off or so.

by Jonathan23 on Mar 26, 2007 10:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Extra rest

Amen to that! In view of his stats on five days rest, I would even think about a six man rotation during the heart of summer (the six week periods before and after the All-Star break, for instance). I always thought it a bad idea when they start messing around with the rotation to "keep Carp on schedule" when it seems that he would benefit more from the occasional extra day of rest.

(Of course, last year they felt (correctly) that they couldn't afford that luxury.)

by ArkansasTravs on Mar 26, 2007 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

5 Year Deal

I think they should give Carp extra rest whenever possible now that he is on a 5 year deal.

This will help two-fold

He will be more likely to be healthy for the length of the contract.
He is OUTSTANDING on extra rest so you are probably going to get the same amount of marginal wins out of him with the extra rest that you would have got by keeping him "on schedule"

2006 Cardinals- An underdog story

by Born in 82 on Mar 26, 2007 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who you're competing against

It seems that "leverage" is a proxy for "how much this game matters." As such, I think that the key distinction is between teams that you could be competing against for playoff position and those that you likely won't be. For teams you're competing against, then each game means two in the standings (one for us, another for them), while for for teams you're not competing against, it only means one. As a result, I think a better measure of leverage may be some variant of the following, for each game:
Probability of competing against them / probability of competing against everyone

The probability of competing against the Pirates at the end of the season may be something like .1, while that against the Cubs or Brewers more like .8. You could also take wild card into account in this.

The problem with this approach is that you'd have to come up with a reasonable proxy for probability of competing against a team. The projected difference in the standings may be a decent measure -- if we're projected to be one game different form the Cubs, then the number is really high, while if we're projected to be 20 games ahead of the Pirates, it'd be a lot lower. Using projected differences in standings may work, because they are relative, which is what you're really looking for here.

In-division this might be pretty simple to figure out, but I can't imagine how you'd take into account wild-card possibilities.

What does everybody think?

by CardFaninVA on Mar 26, 2007 10:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Getting Right

Nice point, but it only serves to increase the value of correctly calculating the right match-up. You still have to have all the right variables in play.

Fan for Life. Go Cards.

by Birds on the Bat on Mar 26, 2007 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

Another complication is that the probabilities will change day-to-day, especially toward the end of the season.

I think the key point is that every pitcher who starts for you can, at best, help your own team to one win. "Leverage" comes in when you take advantage of him to give a loss to competitors at the same time. At the end of the season, it's easy to see who your competitors are. At the beginning, it's all about who you expect to be competing against, which is much more speculative and hard to measure.

Starting Carpenter against the Cubs in late September gives you obvious benefits. The benefits are less obvious in April, and may even be irrelevant if the Cubs fall off the cliff like they did last year. However, I think it makes sense to take an ex ante approach and look at expectations.

by CardFaninVA on Mar 26, 2007 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

fixed

"The benefits are less obvious in April, and may even be irrelevant if the Cubs fall off the cliff like they do every September." :)

by john vb on Mar 26, 2007 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Excellent

I laughed out loud in class when I read that!

You should probably figure that into the ex ante calculation. Knowing the near certainty that the Cubs will fall off the cliff will cause the relevant probability of it mattering in the standings to fall almost to 0 (except in the exceedingly rare case when Kerry Wood and Mark Prior are both healthy, which is clearly not the case this year).

by CardFaninVA on Mar 26, 2007 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Leverage = Matchups

I agree that it's a combination of factors that determines the matchups including L/R splits, ballpark,etc. I also don't think there is any notion of protection of rookies from top teams. Still, the combination of factors escapes sabermetrics, and can't be as easy as the batting lineup toy. I have a notion that tlr and dunc have a pretty good calculator.

I am generally happy to hear tlr talk about using the whole group and getting extra days in view of a long season. Given how anemic the offense looks so far, propped up in average by some destined for Memphis, it looks like some good pitching performances are going to get wasted by an inability to score. No reason to press on four starters early if that's how it's going to be.

Fan for Life. Go Cards.

by Birds on the Bat on Mar 26, 2007 10:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Has anyone mentioned

the idea that we're getting Reyes/Wainwright extra rest right off the bat? I like it. I'm assuming TLR/Duncan is gonna try to get them a week off here and there throughout the season.

by sdrone on Mar 26, 2007 11:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And after the first run through...

The rotation shapes up as:

Carp, Wainwright, Reyes, Wells, Looper

Just as it should

by El Hombre on Mar 26, 2007 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looper

One more note, from a thread over at Gateway Redbirds:

With Looper facing the Mets right before an offday, the whole bullpen can go out and have a good time after BLooper throws 3 innings and they'll have an extra day to get their strength back.

Overall, I'd guess it has a lot more to do with pitcher vs. team/lineup matchups than specific "importance" of games. For example, Suppan nearly always ended up with a start in Milwaukee, where he absolutely crushed for his stay here.

by Phyrkrakr on Mar 26, 2007 11:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

speaking of Suppan in Milwaukee

I don't think I saw this link here at veb- a Chi Tribune article about our favorite soft-tossing righty:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/chi-0703220235mar22,1,166408.story

Hope that works- long-time reader, first time linker

by baked mcbride on Mar 26, 2007 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Woo-hoo

...looks like I'll be seeing Reyes for the only game I've got tickets to so far (Sat. 4/14). I was afraid it would be a Blooper start.

by cardzfanbub on Mar 26, 2007 11:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Monty Python had a skit in which a scientist's hypothesis about the brain size of penguins was shown to be utterly false. "This is known as the Waste of Time Theory," intoned Graham Chapman in the documentary about his life's work.

Perhaps you can relate, Larry.

On the other hand, much of science is testing hypotheses, and the test has to be objective. It can't be set up to "prove" your conjecture. You have tested a hypothesis and published your results and future scientists will benefit from your labors.

by Youneverknow on Mar 26, 2007 11:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i think i remember that sketch

one "test," if i recall, showed that penguins and non-english-speaking humans gave an identical number of correct answers to a series of questions (read in english, of course).

by lboros on Mar 26, 2007 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have tickets to the April 9th game

at PNC. Looks like I am getting Kip Wells or Braden Looper (and then the rest of the bullpen). FANTASTIC! :D

Wells (by team)

NYM 2-3 4.45 ERA
CHC 3-3 3.06 ERA
MIL 6-6 3.97 ERA
CIN 2-8 4.45 ERA

Maybe Tony is just 'going from the gut' here??

Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 26, 2007 12:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The trouble with leverage

if you are more or less wedded to keeping guys on an every-fifth-day rotation is that you have very little tinker room after the first couple of weeks.

The only chances for changing that are (1) rest days and (2) skips for minor-league replacements or bullpen starts.

So yeah, there are some opportunities to maximize the chance of getting a win using match-ups, but they come at the expense of a stable routine for the starters--something Duncan and LaRussa have been reluctant to mess with.

by Red in Chicago on Mar 26, 2007 12:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i respectfully disagree with

the last sentence --- i think duncan and la russa do tinker with the rotation, from the very first week of the season. last april, they used off-days to keep the rotation at 4 guys for much of april/may, spot-starting ponson only when necessary; by the time he took his 6th start last year, three of the other four starters had already taken 8. in early august they had reyes pitching out of turn in order to get carpenter in line to pitch twice against the reds (stl's closest competition at that time). and down the stretch, they twice started pitchers on 3 days' rest in the name of leverage --- in one case they wanted marquis, not reyes, to start against the astros (who by then had moved into second place), and in another case (last game of the year) they wanted to save carpenter for game 1 of the playoffs.

when they have starters they trust, they don't like to tinker --- and they trust all 5 of this year's guys so far. but if anybody other than carpenter hits a rough stretch in the early going, i'd expect them to start tinkering --- and doing it to maximize leverage (however they define it).

by lboros on Mar 26, 2007 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Back Calculating

So if you "test" your numbers against last season's match-ups, would it show that tlr made the right moves with what he had? On the other hand, we know how it turned out. Don't waste your time. Game On.

Fan for Life. Go Cards.

by Birds on the Bat on Mar 26, 2007 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anybody else having gameday link problems?

Can't get it to work...

by Phyrkrakr on Mar 26, 2007 1:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

figured it out...

the date is wrong. 3/26/07, not 3/27/07

by Phyrkrakr on Mar 26, 2007 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry 'bout that

This is today's link...

The dates were wrong for all of today's games, fixed now over at my place.

by liam on Mar 26, 2007 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fair point, Lboros

But, in general they believe pitchers are "creatures of habit," not to be disturbed from their resting patterns.

It would be interesting to see whether short rest for one pitcher canceled out the improved performance of another in a created match-up. Of course "canceled" might be a variable too, since the match-up could be against a division rival and the short-rest could be against the Marlins or something.

by Red in Chicago on Mar 26, 2007 1:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

wainwright

is looking pretty sick. 5 Ks, 0 BB, 4H through 4 IP; one non-ground-ball hit (the double).

I cannot wait for Sunday.

by nycbirdo on Mar 26, 2007 2:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

sick

sick is what the bats are! Mitre a one hitter? I hope it's cold when they come north, maybe they will wake-up.

Fan for Life. Go Cards.

by Birds on the Bat on Mar 26, 2007 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wainwright

That was one hell of an outing today.

by liam on Mar 26, 2007 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he is

going to be a star. I'm loving it.

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Mar 26, 2007 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

can we hope to keep him from going to ATL

once free agency rolls around...

(I completely agree -- he'll be amazing very soon.)

by azruavatar on Mar 26, 2007 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wainwright/Reyes Meltdown?

This relates to the talk about Reyes velocity, but is anyone concerned about Wainwright and Reyes getting ragged as the season progresses?

You hear this discussed in regards to conditioning with rookie starting pitchers. The Tigers' pitching dwindling performance toward the end of the season and Jared Weaver starting out on the DL this year. You know, the whole idea that these young guys come up having pitched less than 150 innings a year and then they have to their expected to throw 200?

Add Looper to the mix and we have three pitchers in our rotation who haven't pitched that many innings in a season before. Our "projection" pools don't seem to reflect this concern either. I guess Mulder is an insurance policy on this, but that's not much insurance.

by enoscountry on Mar 26, 2007 2:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's why I mentioned the immediate

"week off" early in the season earlier in the comments.

by sdrone on Mar 26, 2007 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's why God invented

AAA.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 26, 2007 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Still..

I'd hope for a strong start this year because I'm sure two of these three will get worse as the season gets into July.

by enoscountry on Mar 26, 2007 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, what's the alternative?

Should we give up on the idea of having 2 young starters, trade one of them and replace him with another thoroughly ordinary veteran just because he's likely to throw 200 innings?

Nope, this is the price we pay for developing our own starters, and we have to pay it sooner or later. So we trust a couple of AAA pitchers to make a few decent starts during the year, and if Reyes and Wainer are as good as we think they'll be, we reap the benefits in 2008-2011. I'll pay that price in a heartbeat.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 26, 2007 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree on that point

It just seems the expectation of many here is that Wainwright will throw with the power he showed us all year when it seems more likely he's going to get tired and slowed down, especially late in the season.

by enoscountry on Mar 26, 2007 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wainer's innings

I both agree and disagree with your point here. I do agree that there is reason to be concerned that Reyes and Wainwright may wear down in the latter parts of the season, but I'm going to take slight issue with your examples. In the Tigers' case, Verlander was pitching in only his second pro season, at 23 years old. Jered Weaver has a bit of a history of bicep problems, especially early in the year. He's also in only his second or third professional season.

Both Reyes and Wainwright are older than either of those two, (I believe both are 25 right now) and both have had more conditioning to the extended nature of the season at the pro level. Reyes was drafted in 2003, so this is his fourth full season as a pro, and Wainwright was drafted in, what, 99 or 2000? I think it was 2000, but I won't swear to it. Both of them have been at the professional level long enough to be much more used to the grind than either Verlander or Weaver. Verlander was drafted in 04, signed late, and only threw a handful of innings late that summer. Weaver was a very similar situation. Both of them were still trying to get acclimated to the length, and the grind, of pro ball. I think the Cards' two 'A's are in much better positions, neither one having been pushed to the bigs before they were ready.

Not that I don't think it's a concern, I just think that Adam and Anthony have definite advantages, just in terms of already having made more adjustments.

by the red baron on Mar 27, 2007 6:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

Looper's career high in innings is 86 and he has averaged about 72 per season. So even assuming his innigs go up to 160, that is still at least a 100% increase in workload. Thinking back to when pitcher workloads was all the rage, I think that a 25% increase in innings was a risk factor. 100 can't be too good.

I look at this as a sprinter turning into a marathoner. It takes a lot of time for the body to transition and get use to a lot of work every few days versus a little work daily. I hope he hold up, but...

If there were a starting pitcher DL pool, I would put my money on Looper first and then Reyes (a hunch).

Final thought, who are the 6th and 7th starters if a starter does go down?

by bdief on Mar 26, 2007 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

6th and 7th starters

The 6th and 7th Starters are Ryan Franklin and Chris Navaritson. Probably in that order...

Put they are all just holding a spot for Mulder who should be back in August.

2006 Cardinals- An underdog story

by Born in 82 on Mar 26, 2007 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

don't forget

Liriano of the Twins.

by madding on Mar 26, 2007 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

IMPORTANT POINT

While this "leveraging" is coming from a few different angles, one of TLR's biggest philosophies in baseball is; win every series, win the division. La Russa will rest the gamers if we are up on a team 2-0 in a 3 game series or 3-0 in a 4 game series, especially early in the season.

Thus, look at how many of Carpenter's starts come on the First game of a Series. Get ahead in that series, and you've got a better chance to take it. And then down the line, next best pitcher goes in 2nd game, so on and so on.

Obviously, might not be the biggest factor, but it is an important one.

by whatapartier on Mar 26, 2007 2:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's still spring, it's still spring,

it's still spring...

But man, am I excited about Kid W in the rotation. It may be just like cloning Carp, which I believe we were seriously suggesting at one point last season. ;) As with everyone else, I'm starved for the games to start counting, and I am THRILLED with Adam's performance today. Our rotation is leaps and bounds better without Marquis and an injured Mulder in it, and if we can avoid those devastating seven or eight-game losing streaks, we could be very, very good this year. :D

Sparks of Dementia Cards, A's, and Rockies coverage by an amateur if very enthusiastic blogmistress, myself.

by Scarlet the Cardinal on Mar 26, 2007 3:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The offense seems to have seen a regression

over what the Cardinals were experiencing early last season. Pujols started red-hot, Rolen and Edmonds were both 'reliable'. I don't know that you can say that about either of them based on ST.

Tony seems to be tinkering with the lineup as of late, putting Edmonds in the #2 spot and Duncan in the #5 spot. This gets Edmonds more pitches to hit, but really, at this stage: who do we want seeing more hittable pitches?

Perhaps it is just a ploy in ST to get Edmonds some looks since he has been on the shelf the entire time. That's reasonable.

I think the pitching should hold up quite well, however offensively, this team could be in serious trouble.

Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 26, 2007 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm an optimist

I think that Albert will be just fine once the season gets going, and that Rolen and Duncan will also be reliable producers - perhaps not to superstar levels, but all we need is 20-25 HR and about 80 RBI to back up Albert, both of which they're capable of providing. Not sure how much Jimmy Ballgame is going to bring to the table offensively at this point, but his defense doesn't seem to have degraded too much - it's early and we'll have to wait on the results of the April games. But all in all, I think that this team is at least as good and probably better than last year's, and hey, did the Cards win something in '06? ;)

Sparks of Dementia Cards, A's, and Rockies coverage by an amateur if very enthusiastic blogmistress, myself.

by Scarlet the Cardinal on Mar 26, 2007 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Scarlet...

Your blog entry for Sunday was top notch! Well said, and beautiful, it gave me goose bumbs!!

by CardinalsfanIraq on Mar 27, 2007 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hear, hear

I'd like to echo CardinalsfanIraq's sentiments on your blog post, Scarlet.

Beautifully written. I got goosebumps, too.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Mar 27, 2007 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed on both

i realize it is still spring training. but if march can get me this excited about our rotation (and it has), it can also make me concerned about our lineup (and it has).

i have faith pujols will be a (deserving) all-star. but he hasn't been an all-star the past few years; he's been an mvp. it will be disappointing if he isn't that again. and rolen and the outfield really need to come through.

i've been bashing the pecota projections for our offense along with everyone else, but if we're just looking at the spring i would have to say they look a lot closer than i'd like.

by nycbirdo on Mar 26, 2007 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't see how anyone can't be alittle

discouraged that our #3 hitter is batting .240 something with only a handful of XBH.

I mean, if he was anyone other than Albert. :D

Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 26, 2007 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I also wonder if it's a way

to get Edmonds to take it easy. He seems to trend toward hitting more singles, etc. in the 2 spot, so it's a good way to help keep him from swinging too hard.

by sdrone on Mar 26, 2007 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually...

I think Tony stuck Jimmy in the #2 spot just so he could get more at bats more quickly before inevitably switching him out.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Mar 27, 2007 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cloning Carpenter

You know, I think that's actually how Suppan got so motivated to come out against cloning last year. He didn't have religious objections. He was just worried that if the Cardinals got their "Carpenter Army" off the ground, he would lose his spot in the rotation.

Also, I don't think you really care how AW pitches. You just like him 'cause he's dreamy.

Can't say I blame you, though. I tell you, if I were a woman...

I've said far too much. This entry is over.

by the red baron on Mar 27, 2007 6:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

respondant

That was supposed to be a response to Scarlet way up above, but it turned out not to be too clear.

With no context, it's even creepier. Story of my life.

by the red baron on Mar 27, 2007 6:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also wanted to note

that Ty Johnson seems to be righting the ship nicely after a rough start to the spring. It could be good to have a strong (and reliable) lefty setup guy in the pen.

Sparks of Dementia Cards, A's, and Rockies coverage by an amateur if very enthusiastic blogmistress, myself.

by Scarlet the Cardinal on Mar 26, 2007 4:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Maybe WPct isn't the best measure of leverage

If I were lining up my pitching, I'd be tempted to focus on the opposing offense rather than the overall winning percentage. Naturally, you want your best pitchers to go against the best overall teams, but wouldn't you especially want them to go against the best bats? Or as has been pointed out, specific types of bats.

Basically, my thought was that maybe the leverage numbers make more sense if you line up the pitchers against a team's projected runs scored. Won't explain Carp facing the Pirates 2/6 starts, though. But it might expain jumping through hoops to run him out against the Cubs an extra time or two, since their offense looks to be pretty solid.

by rmerrill on Mar 26, 2007 4:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Izzy...

1 inning......3 hits...and a walk...today. Like the talk of Albert, and the Cards offense above, it's still a week away from the start of the season, but I really don't like seeing that kind of line for our closer. Maybe he was working on a certain pitch or something...but the guy has already given me an ulcer the last year or so... sure would like to see him start to shut down batters with some consistancy before heading North.

by Timbo02 on Mar 26, 2007 4:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs