Looper, Rincon and Narveson for Lieber

by guayzimi on Mar 21, 2007 5:38 PM EDT

The time has come to put an end to the Looper as starter gag. I mean, it was funny for a while, but we're getting dangerously close to opening day.

The Phillies have too many starters, and for some dumb reason they are going to send Lieber - their fourth best - to the 'pen, if they can't trade him first. Reports have Lieber going to the Brewers for Kevin Mench or to the Chisox with Aaron Rowand for Mike MacDougal. Both of these trades address the Phillies' needs, bullpen help and the outfield.

While the Cards couldn't help them in the outfield, a combination of Looper-Narveson or Looper-Rincon or Looper-Rincon-Narveson (why not?) should suffice. Moreover, the money works nicely as Looper-Rincon has $7.45mm coming over the next two years compared to $7.5mm for one year of Lieber.

Why do we want Lieber? 3.38 era over his last 11 starts in '06, a 1.50 era this spring (thanks jason stark), and a ZIPS projection of 4.43 era, 114/33 k/bb, and 193 innings pitched.

Looper won't do that, we don't need Rincon, and Narveson can't stay even if we wanted him. CORRECTION: We're actually paying Looper and Rincon $11.45mm over the next two years, so we'd probably have to include some cash in the deal

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why?

Ignorance -- Why can't Narveson stay?
Lieber may have been good last year, but living in the NYC area I saw him pitch for the Yanks and man-o-man did he stink! I personally don't trust the guy to be in OUR rotation. Maybe good enough forthe Phil's last year, but not this year? DOESN'T THAT TELL YOU SOMETHING!?
I fear the Looper as a starter bit as well, but maybe have a little faith... Jocketty and LaRusa and Dunc know some sh*t. BIG TIME! Ihave a feeling our rotation is gonna be AWESOME! JUST WATCH! Have a little faith and lets see how April goes!

by onebigdummy on Mar 21, 2007 7:06 PM EDT 0 recs

Narvie's out of options

if he's not on the MLB roster, we lose him...

by Valatan on Mar 21, 2007 9:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

WHY!?

I thought this kid was good!?!? What the heck?

by onebigdummy on Mar 21, 2007 9:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

Quick Explanation

MLB has a set of fairly complicated rules intended to prevent one team from hoarding talent in their minor league system—a bad situation both to the other teams who can't find enough quality players and to those players who may be wasting some of the most productive years of their careers toiling away in some team's farm system. Here's a good introductory article on some of these rules.

One of these mechanisms are options. A club needs to place a prospect on their 40-man roster within 4 or 5 years of signing him or he'll be available to other teams in the Rule 5 draft. Once he's on the 40-man roster, he gets three option years in which the team can send him to the minors without any penalties or restrictions. After his three option years go by, he's "out of options" and has to clear waivers before he can be assigned to your minor league team. When a player is out on waivers, the other 29 teams can claim him and he'll go to the worst team with a claim without compensation to us.

So if Narveson doesn't make the team, and it's hard to imagine he will, we'd have to put him on waivers before he could go to Memphis to join their rotation. While on waivers, it's likely that a team in need of a left-handed pitcher would claim him and we'd lost him and get nothing in return.

It's a lousy situation, especially in his case, where he changed teams three times and was seriously injured during his option years.

by liam on Mar 21, 2007 10:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

My understanding

is that if a team picks him up off waivers, they can't just assign him to the minors. A team would pick up his contract (I think), and then they'd have to pass him through waivers before assigning him. If this is true, then any team that picked him up would have to keep him as either a starter or a reliever. Seeing as he has pitched so few innings this year, and very few at the major league level, and that he's never pitched out of the bullpen, it seems that picking him up may not be as attractive of an option for other teams as we're making it out to be. Correct me if I'm wrong anybody.

by CardFaninVA on Mar 21, 2007 11:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

That's right

Any team that picked him up via waiver claim would get a left-handed pitcher who's out of options. If they wanted to send him to the minors, they'd have to go through the same deal.

I think he's capable of pitching out of a major-league bullpen. It'd be nice to see Rincon traded away for prospects, then we could carry three lefties: Flores, TJ, and Narvie—with Narvie starting out in mop-up work and seeing how well he responds. If he does poorly, he'll clear waivers, if he does well, we've got a cheap, effective relief pitcher with some starter potential. I've compared him to Donovan Osborne in terms of what kind of role he could fill.

Doesn't seem likely, since he's not pitching in any big league games lately this Spring.

by liam on Mar 21, 2007 11:49 PM EDT up 0 recs

keep looper

keep looper. put him in the bullpen . lieber is solid but not great..

but then again looper as a starter just might be crazy enough to work

SWH

by BRINGBACKWILSON on Mar 21, 2007 7:07 PM EDT 0 recs

The important question

here is to ask yourself if Lieber has a better chance of succeeding than Looper (and Narveson and Rincon, if you add them in) and, if so, if it's worth the extra salary for what could be a marginal improvement. It's the same question that management apparently answered when they declined to sign marginal starters like Ted Lilly or Adam Eaton or Gil Meche over the winter.

I, for one, am content just to let it ride for now. Give the Looper experiment a chance. There's a decent chance that he can give you league-average starting pitching for a half season, which is all he's really being asked to give. Lieber's probably in the same boat -- expect league average, if best, if he's not hurt. It's not worth the extra money at this point, and there's a pretty good chance that Looper will be at least as good as Lieber as a starter.

by CardFaninVA on Mar 21, 2007 7:28 PM EDT 0 recs

I doubt Looper

can give you league average starting pitching. The projections have him as a reliever, but I seem to remember a post about The Hardball Times pegging him at >5.00 era. Lieber on the other hand is a good candidate for average-ness, according to ZIPS, so that's where the upgrade comes in.

As for money, Lieber is only making $7.5m next year, while Looper is at $4.5m for '07 and $5.5m in '08. It's basically a money neutral deal. We can't carry three lefty specialists (let alone four), so losing Rincon and Narveson is not much of a loss.

How much more is Lieber worth over Looper? I say 2-3 wins. I suppose you could argue that taking Rincon and Flores north and leaving TJ at Memphis gives us some insurance, but that's not worth much compared to upgrading from a probable replacement level guy to a 193 inning/4.33 era guy.

Acquire any Established Major League Starter!

by guayzimi on Mar 21, 2007 8:20 PM EDT up 0 recs

first

i believe narveson is out of options. tj has been struggling so he might end up in memphis. i doubt lieber will be a cardinal. but i think they will pick up a righty set up guy soon. who that will be who knows.

i dont like the idea of looper starting but i say give him a chance maybe it will work out. i just hope he does not turn into danny graves

SWH

by BRINGBACKWILSON on Mar 21, 2007 8:54 PM EDT 0 recs

Remember

The five spot is a temp job. We are all hoping Maulder returns and fills that roll for the second half. Looper will return to the pen when Mark returns. Trading for Leiber causes a log jam.

Now if the Card braintrust feels Maulder will not make it back then a trade maybe needed.

I would like to see a trade to beef up the outfield. I know I am a broken record, but our outfield is weak.

by nybirdfan on Mar 22, 2007 12:19 AM EDT 0 recs

There's only a logjam...

if Wells, AW, Reyes, and Mulder all stay healthy and effective for the entire year. The chance of that happening is small for a staff composed of healthy, effective veterans. Given the past injuries and youth of the Cardinal staff, I think it's safe to say it is virtually guaranteed someone will have a problem.

We won't know if Mulder can't make it back until July. At that point Looper or Franklin will have made 15-20 piss poor starts. Better to make a trade now and have Lieber make those starts.

Acquire any Established Major League Starter!

by guayzimi on Mar 22, 2007 10:24 AM EDT up 0 recs

To reply to your signature

I think the idea of an "established" major league starter is wrong. Jason Marquis is an "established" major league starter, and Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainwright aren't. Track record is good and all, but potential is just as important.

I think I just have more faith in TLR and Duncan's ability to put together a staff. The fact that they passed up other credible options (Thompson, Narveson, maybe even Franklin) for Looper says that they think he can be something special, or at least adequate.

by CardFaninVA on Mar 22, 2007 1:11 PM EDT up 0 recs

Leiber is not going to be traded

Garcia is having injury problems so Lieber will probably have to start.

This is one thing I have never understood. Why do teams that have 6 starters feel like they have to trade one. Sometime throughout the year almost every team has a starter injured. Keep a 6th starter that can step in during injuries.

by stl3bagger on Mar 22, 2007 2:47 PM EDT 0 recs