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at a glance

according to Bird Land, dove and jimenez have pitched themselves onto the bubble:

La Russa described Kelvin Jimenez and Dennis Dove, both of whom remained with the club after Sunday's start, as prospects he's recently spoken with about how their situations have changed this camp. In La Russa's words, they came to champ with "no chance, now they have an outside chance." He said he spoke with them to make sure they understood that "they are being looked at differently" than from the early days of camp.
if you've been paying even the slightest bit of attention, you know that dove and jimenez have been turning heads all spring. they both threw an inning over the weekend, and since both games were available via mlb.tv i decided to take a look.

before i describe what i saw, though, let's do a quick bit of handicapping here to see how "outside" these two pitchers' chances are. i figure 4 of the 7 bullpen spots are locked up --- isringhausen and thompson from the right side, and flores plus one (either rincon or johnson) from the left. i am gonna surmise that the three remaining spots will all go to right-handed pitchers, with the surplus left-hander either getting traded (rincon) or getting optioned to memphis (johnson). the contestants for those three remaining slots are:

  1. hancock
  2. franklin
  3. springer
  4. falkenborg
  5. dove
  6. jimenez
  7. cavazos
i've listed these guys in order of their probability (per my estimation) to make the big-league club. the first three guys are the presumed front-runners because they're all big league veterans; the last three have never pitched in the majors, and dove has never pitched above double A. franklin has the ability to start, which increases his value; both he and springer are on guaranteed seven-figure contracts, so they'll have to pitch themselves off the team. springer might just do that; he's been neither healthy nor effective so far. if he doesn't win tony/dave's confidence before camp breaks, the cards might put russ on the DL (on account of the guaranteed $1.75m) and try to rehab him before they outright release him. and both franklin and hancock are pretty marginal relievers; their spots look secure for now, but a run of bad outings by either over the last couple of weeks might create an opportunity for somebody else.

jimenez threw the bottom of the 10th inning on friday night vs the braves and preserved a 6-6 tie. i wrote last week that kelvin hasn't faced very stiff competition this spring, and the same pattern held in this game: he pitched to quadruple A slap-hitter willie harris (a favorite of mine, incidentally), triple A shortstop tony pena, and double A outfielder brandon jones. this pitcher is very long and thin; baseball cube lists his dimensions as 6'2", 153 pounds, and while he's not quite that spindly, there's a decided stick-figurey presence about him. (i searched google images for a picture of kelvin jimenez but couldn't find one; the search engine did return this off-the-field image, but i can't vouch for whether or not that's really kelvin.) jimenez pitched exclusively from the stretch on friday night. he has a short, smooth delivery and throws hard without a lot of effort --- holds his hands at the belt, has a low leg kick that never cracks the plane of his waistline, and holds his torso pretty upright as he delivers the ball. jimenez threw his fastball consistently at 93-94 mph (per fox south's radar gun) on friday and spotted it well; he came inside with it on both of the left-handed hitters he faced, ended his stint (and the game) with a called strike on the inside corner vs brandon jones. his off-speed pitch, a slider, appears to be nothing special, and he lacked command with it on this night --- the first two he threw were way high and forced marrero out of his catcher's crouch. versus jones, the best hitter he faced (and a left-handed one), jimenez featured his slider --- threw one on the first pitch (a called strike), another on 0-1 (ball outside), and a third on the 2-1 pitch, which jones chased in the dirt for strike 2. so the guy trusts the pitch enough to throw it from behind in the count.

dove entered the game yesterday in the 6th inning with the cardinals ahead 4-1 and threw to real big-league hitters --- beltran, david wright, alou, shawn green, and jose valentin. he has a big upper body and broad shoulders; has a drop-drive delivery and reaches wayyyy back behind his head and cocks his arm at the elbow, which might make the ball hard to pick up. dove's fastball consistently hit 95 on ksdk's radar gun, while his curve came in as slow as 75-76 mph; that's a terrific split. if he can harness both of those and throw `em for strikes, he could be very difficult to hit.

the mets, however, weren't altogether fooled. dove threw 12 fastballs yesterday, 9 for strikes; the mets swung at 8 of those pitches and put four of them into play (they also fouled off 3 and swung through 1). beltran roped one of those 95mph pitches up the middle for a single, and alou pulled another for a hard-hit base knock to left. dove threw five curveballs, four of them to left-handed hitters --- including the 0-0 pitch to both green and valentine. (green swung and missed for strike one; valentin took the pitch for a ball.) dove finished off his appearance with a beautiful hook to valentin for a called strike 3.

dove looks more like a big-league pitcher than jimenez, imho --- but he also has far less experience, having thrown only 14 or so innings above class A (here are his career stats from the farm). having seen him, i fully understand why they added this guy to the 40-man. he may not make the team out of ST, but that doesn't mean he won't be pitching in the majors by july 4.

as long as i was looking at video, i checked out ryan franklin's 3-inning stint saturday afternoon vs the braves. he faced 12 hitters, got 8 of `em out; fanned 1, didn't walk a man. franklin is listed at 6'3", but he sure doesn't look that big; both in stature and in facial feature he vaguely reminds me of the Schofield Kid from unforgiven. he's bow legged and stiff-backed, pitched from a full windup on sat'dy; keeps his back leg pretty straight during the delivery, dips his right shoulder before he rotates it forward. franklin got by on his breaking pitches this particular day; of the 15 he threw, 11 were over the plate, and he got 5 of the 8 outs on off-speed stuff. franklin lacked command his fastball, which he threw 23 times but only 13 times over the plate; the braves put 6 of those fastballs into play, 3 of them for hits. he does locate the ball well and will pitch inside, which i like to see. i know a lot of people detest this guy already, but i think he has his uses.

a few bits of reading:

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I can't wait
till the guys at Fire Joe Morgan get hold of that article on Eckstein...

by jfs on Mar 19, 2007 9:30 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Great Monday reference
Unforgiven is my favorite western movie, and The Schofield Kid is/will be who I name my son after. He was played by an actor named Jaimz Woolvett, and my brother's name is Zebulun James. Enough for my family history.

It is pretty sad when you don't even have a ST game to look forward to. Guess it really shows that my last week in Iraq is a very uneventful one (never a bad thing). I'm excited that there are still more arms throwing well than not for the bullpen race.

Since the starting five is all but locked up, we should witness a good battle for the last remaining relievers the final two weeks of play. I'm not entirely sure what trades are a possibility, but it does appear a few of the vets could be playing elsewhere come April 1.

Happy Monday VEBers

Opening Night 2007, here I come!

by gforce on Mar 19, 2007 10:16 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Ditto on the Unforgiven Reference
Unforgiven is a real gem. I love how Clint's characters (Bill Munny, Josey Wales, preacher in Pale Rider) always find themselves torn between good and evil; caught between a past they'd rather forget and a future that scares them.

Unforgiven shows how violence corrupts the soul, and the Schofield Kid learns that the cold-blooded gunslinger that he aspires to be is horrifically frightening when he actually plays the part. Yes, it's a helluva of a thing to kill a man.

And it's helluva thing to figure out who gets the last 3 spots in the pen. My guess is that TLR and Duncan will stick with the vets for now and gow with Hancock, Springer and Franklin. The other guys will be kept warm at AA and AAA until needed, which is a question of when, rather than if.

by Hungry Jack on Mar 19, 2007 11:01 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I've said it before
and I'll say it again.  I'm not for the Cards to develop guys who can throw hard.  If we think Dove can do it, let's bring 'im.

My brother said someone at the Post Dispatch referred to him as Izzy's replacement, but I can't find that anywhere.

by sdrone on Mar 19, 2007 11:27 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

handicapping the bullpen slots
Your assessment is right on, as usual.  I agree totally.  When finalizing his roster, LaRussa can lean toward

a) history
b) spring training competition
c) business (contract, options, etc)
d) his gut

And just like your wife, Tony can be very predictable OR change his logic on a dime and surprise you.

His choices on the bench and bullpen will be interesting.

by Hinkster on Mar 19, 2007 11:38 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I was listening to Hummel
on 590 yesterday and he made it sound like TLR was not very big on Hancock.  There weren't any direct "he's not going to make the team" comments but that TLR just wasn't talking about him much and there was a distinct possibility for Hancock to not make the team.

by azruavatar on Mar 19, 2007 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It wouldn't surprise me
to see Falkenborg take Hancock's spot.  I really can't see Franklin or Springer not making the team w/ their salaries and Springer's history and Looper's potential vulnerability in the rotation.  Moreover, Hancock's long man role will likely be taken by Franklin.  Falkenborg is a potential difference maker -- that seems to be what LaRussa and Duncan are looking for in Dove and Jimenez.  

by chuckb on Mar 19, 2007 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don't wanna toot your own horn, huh?
Great words from Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus about this site.  Congrats!  He's dead on, of course, and we've known that for a while.  Now others are coming around.

"Be sure to read the interview with Fantasyland's Sam Walker on Viva El Birdos, which has quickly become one of my favorite baseball blogs on the web. There's lots of good stuff in this interview, but perhaps the most interesting part is Walker's contention that the valuation methods brought about by fantasy baseball are partly responsible for the tightening of the market for free agent pitchers:"

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/

by chuckb on Mar 19, 2007 12:38 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

rock on
thanks for pointing that out, houston. i hadn't checked BP yet today; it doesn't usually update until about noon my time (ie, an hour or so from now).

i'm a BP admirer (and rely on it heavily), so it feels good to know they appreciate our little corner of the blogosphere.

by lboros on Mar 19, 2007 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

BTW
if he's reading, he ought to be posting, too!

He can leave behind all that stuff about the Cards maybe losing 90 this year, though.  I could see us not winning the division, but we'd have to have a lot of really bad things happen to lose 90.

by chuckb on Mar 19, 2007 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

nate did post a while back
a couple weeks ago, when i was puzzling over the BP depth charts and trying to figure out why the cards' runs-scored projection was so low.

by lboros on Mar 19, 2007 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm still looking at this
2006 Position by Position, in what will be the typical batting order:

SS  .290 .350    .361    .711
LF  .273 .344    .434    .778
1B  .325 .416    .641    1.057
3B  .305 .379    .554    .933
CF  .252 .336    .404    .739
RF  .272 .323    .469    .793
C   .221 .277    .328    .605
2B  .263 .326    .375    .701
P   .173 .224    .222    .446

I see regressions at 3b and RF and maybe 1B, but drastic improvements at LF, CF and C.  No net effect at 2B and SS  

I can see where this offense might not improve, but how does PECOTA have us losing 50 runs over last year?  I just don't see it.  Were there a ton of unearned runs last year?  Were the cardinals extra-efficient at turning rate-stats into runs?

Can anyone solve this riddle for me?

by Jonathan23 on Mar 19, 2007 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Even the World Series Champs.....
     aren't always on the same page.
"we're talkin' about practice man"  I'm not worried.  Just ready and waiting for the real games to begin.

by Yadier on Mar 19, 2007 12:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Jeez, I'm tired
     Just finished a first date with a cutie from the other ie of the world.  I forgot to add this to the previous post.
Also, La Russa had a closed-door meeting with outfielder Preston Wilson about Wilson's recent comments regarding his spring training approach.

"I'm disappointed he missed the message," La Russa said. "I've explained it to him -- you just don't get ready for April 1."

Wilson called his meeting with La Russa some "honest dialogue," and downplayed any problem.

"For me, it's not a matter of not wanting to do well, it's just annually taken me a little while to get my swing going for whatever reason," Wilson said.

by Yadier on Mar 19, 2007 12:49 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

jiminez
Here's a bb card for Kelvin Jiminez on ebay (link pops)

It's not the clearest photo, but he's obviously a skinny dude.

by _pistol_ on Mar 19, 2007 12:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

nice
and it's a good angle to illustrate the upright-torso thing. that seems quite marked to me; most guys seem to lean forward at least a few degrees as they drive toward the plate.

by lboros on Mar 19, 2007 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Guys do generally lean forward
But one significant exception I can think of is Rich Harden.  There was a feature over at the Hardball Times the other day on Harden's mechanics, and a group of posters had a big discussion on the oddity of Harden's velocity, given his lack of upper body movement.  

Doesn't really have a whole lot to do with Jimenez, I just thought it's kind of a cool mechanical oddity.  

by the red baron on Mar 20, 2007 6:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Hardball Times projections
It's interesting to me that, in any of the projections you see, the win totals of the division winners are so low.  Only 2 teams in baseball (Yankees and Red Sox) are projected to win as many as 90 games.  Other projections are similar.  I wonder why the best teams tend to win more than they're projected to.

Maybe it's because these teams add players during the year that improve their numbers.  Maybe it's because the weaker teams play more prospects at the end of the year, thus making it easier for the good teams to win games.  Maybe the teams that finish poorly tend to be more adversely affected by injuries, thus increasing the margin between the good teams and the bad teams.  This might allow the good teams to win more games than they're initially projected to.

Has anyone ever looked at this?  Does anyone have any ideas?

by chuckb on Mar 19, 2007 12:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think expectations of future standings factor in
quite heavily. If you're in last place and doomed to stay there, it's far better to bring in younger, developing players with the hopes they will improve and play better the following year, than to go all out with a losing team.

The same goes for trading expensive players for prospects.

The bigger question, IMHO, is why, if this happens year after year, don't the projection systems take it into account. The Cards have another $10 MM in salary room + some undervalued rookies = $15MM or so for an impact player (probably an outfield bat on the order of Larry Walker, were there such a thing). This type of player has got to be worth a few wins, even if he's brought in mid-season. Why isn't this factored into the analysis?

by Red in Chicago on Mar 19, 2007 1:55 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Just too damn many variables...
For example, you can take it as a given that every team will have to deal with player injuries... but which players, what injuries, and for how long?

Last year's Cards are a perfect example... the team that took the field in October was a better team than had been playing for much of the season... simply because they had most of their position players healthy, and shortened the rotation so that their (horrid) 4th/5th starters didn't take the mound. Add the unexpected performances of the kiddie bullpen (maybe they didn't know they weren't supposed to be blowing folks away!) and Jeff Weaver's miraculous channeling of his inner Orel Hershiser, and there you have it! (The 2004 playoff team was a lesser ballclub than the regular-season juggernaut, because they were without Chris Carpenter.)

Any and all "projections" are guess-work... it's just a question of how "educated" those guesses are. Who saw the Tigers coming out of spring training a year ago? Me, neither!

"A man should live forever, or die trying." -- Mike Callahan

by The Ol Goaler on Mar 19, 2007 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ankiel leg go???
i just heard bob ley do a tease saying that rick ankiel was let go today.  anybody else have any info?  is this just breaking?

i figured we might be grooming him for trade bait, but didn't think we'd just cut him outright THIS year.  interesting move.

by HoosierCardFan on Mar 19, 2007 4:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Ankiel
I'm pretty sure he was merely "cut" from the big boys camp and sent over to the minor league camp, not "let go".  He's ticketed for AAA, and will likely be prowling the crowded AutoZone outfield at Memphis this year.
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Mar 19, 2007 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ankiel was outrighted to memphis
as Bird Land reported yesterday:

"The Cardinals made several moves after the game Sunday, most notably the inevitable assigning of outfielder Rick Ankiel to Triple-A Memphis. Lefty Randy Keisler was optioned to the minor-league camp. Ankiel started his Sunday playing for Memphis in one of the backlot games, going 2-for-3 with a couple doubles and starting in right field.

He's expected to stick in Memphis, where he'll be an everyday player.

'I just need to get at-bats, the more I can get the better,' said Ankiel, who finished his day by driving in the winning run of the big-league game with a sacrifice fly in the eighth inning. '(Staying healthy) is just as important -- for me to go out and crank out some at-bats.'"

by lboros on Mar 19, 2007 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually
He wasn't "outrighted".  He was reassigned.  Guys on the 40 man roster who are taken off are outrighted.  I actually just heard a thing on this somewhere recently.  Here's how the terms break down:  

A player who is not on the 40 man roster, on a minor league contract, who is sent from major league camp to minor league camp is said to be reassigned.  

A player who is on the 40 man, and is sent to minor league camp, is said to be optioned, so long as he hasn't been optioned in three previous seasons.  

A player who is on the 40 man roster, who is sent down and removed from the 40 man, is said to have been outrighted.  

I've never understood all the terminology myself, until I heard it laid out the other day.  (I wish I could remember where)  Just thought I'd help out, while it's still fresh in my mind.  

by the red baron on Mar 20, 2007 6:41 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

thank for clarifying
i never understood all that terminology either. i better write it down somewhere, else i'll surely forget it . . . . .

by lboros on Mar 20, 2007 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is outrighted a synonym for
'Designated for Assignment' then?  Or is being outrighted the result of being DFAed?

by Valatan on Mar 20, 2007 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not Necessarily
When you're outrighted, you're removed from the 40-man roster. You can be DFA'd to a minor league club without being removed from the 40-man roster, you're just removed from the active roster and must clear waivers.

by liam on Mar 20, 2007 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah...thanks guys...
i won't stand on it...but really thought i heard him say "let go."  I was in shock.  

I was expecting him to go to AAA and get at bats.  Especially considering he's probably the 5-7th best outfielder we currently have.  

It didn't make sense to me either.  I'll assume he was cut and sent down which is what was expected unless i hear otherwise.  

by HoosierCardFan on Mar 19, 2007 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Clutch Hitting
I know this is a subject change, but mlb.com has an article about clutch hitting and I couldn't help but notice this section: "Ortiz has become known for one specific kind of highlight -- the late-inning home run. It's not a myth. He does it again and again. Over the past three years, Ortiz has 27 home runs in 235 "close and late" situations, defined as at-bats in the seventh inning or later with the hitter's team either ahead by one run, tied, or with the potential tying run at least on deck. Then again, Albert Pujols has gone deep 24 times in 231 close-and-late at-bats in that same span."
So, if Papi's "clutchness" earns him MVP votes, why doesn't someone with virturally identical statistics and a first-place team get a nudge over (the first base version of)Albert Bell Jr.?

by cardinalfan7 on Mar 19, 2007 4:37 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Well, he does have an MVP.
and a batting title. and a ROY. and some silver sluggers. and a gold glove. Oh... and a ring.

Yes, there is something called an east-coast bias, but it does not apply to Albert Pujols. He is easily admited to be the best player in the NL by ESPN and other outlets.

Him losing the MVP last year? That a HR bias. Ryan's stats were more sexy to the HR loving media. And I'm sure El Hombre is more than happy with the ring.

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Mar 19, 2007 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

hah
I remember hearing about that stat during one of last years games - expanded/altered a little bit though. The announcers were saying that Albert hit a full third of his homers in innings 7-9. Holy crap! they say... A full third of his home runs came in a full third of the game? Surely you jest! That means the other 2 thirds of his home runs  must have come in the other two-thirds of the game. Astounding!

by Birds on the Matt on Mar 19, 2007 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

"Did you know
That 25 perecent of all car accidents happen between the begining of December and the end of Febuary? Maybe next winter, you should make yourself (and your family) safer by switching to new winter-all tires."

I love stats.

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Mar 19, 2007 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Did you realize
That a full 40% of all sick days are taken on Monday & Friday? That's simply too much!

Or that 47.6% of all statistics are made up on the spot?

Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time.

by Solanus on Mar 19, 2007 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm...
Your Sick Days stat shows extreme white collar bias.  I don't trust it. ;-)
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Mar 19, 2007 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Homer Simpson on statistics and facts:
"Oh, people can come up with statistics to prove anything. 14% of people know that."

"Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true."

by BTown Birds fan on Mar 19, 2007 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Or my personal favorite...
Interpretive bias was prevalent even in Shakespeare's time:

"The devil can cite Scripture for his purpose."
 - Shakespeare, The Merchant of Venice, Act I, Sc III.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Mar 19, 2007 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

third of the game?
often, the bottom of inning 9 isn't played.  that would make a full third of homers in less than a third of each game.  in addition, it would be (arguably) one of the most critical portions of the game.  however, the point was that pujols is equally as clutch as ortiz, not that stats can be manipulated.  if clutch is so "sexy" for ortiz, then why wasn't it so for big albert?

by cardinalfan7 on Mar 19, 2007 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There is always the classic
"You know, 60% of the time this works every time"
Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 19, 2007 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well
Hubie Green once said, "Ninety percent of all putts you leave short don't go in."

Beat that.

by Red in Chicago on Mar 19, 2007 7:35 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

FOX SPORTS MIDWEST
Excue my rant fella's but.......

I am sitting here watching the replay of game 7 of the NLCS and they can't even link the sound to what is happening on tape.  There is about a 4-5 second delay.

Yea it's just a replay, but good grief can it be that hard to have the sound match what is going on?

I assume this is simply something that is on tape.  How can ya possibly screw that up lol.

Ok, I am done whining.

by Pujols for MVP on Mar 19, 2007 10:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Jimenez Offspeed
I have to disagree with the Jimenez scouting report a little bit.

His primary offspeed pitch is not his slider, but his changeup.  I watched his appearance against the Braves as well.  

He did throw two sliders that were both terrible, for balls.  The pitch he was featuring that was getting awkward swings was his low to mid 80's changeup.  He had good arm speed, and a little bit of drop.

by Sonicblast12 on Mar 20, 2007 4:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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