Performance vs Results, re WPA

by Solanus on Feb 5, 2007 4:13 PM EST Comment 2 comments

Previously I have looked at starting pitcher performances and how they compare to their W-L records (read this and this).

If the daily WPA value is +.100 or higher, the starter is credited with a Win.

If the daily WPA value is -.100 or lower, the starter is credited with a Loss.

If the daily WPA value is in between, the starter receives a No Decision.

After tabulating the rest of the majors, I figured that I would pass on my findings. (Whether or not you'll find this information interesting is open for debate.)

Notable pitchers whose performance was much better than their record:

Jake Peavy - 17-7 (WPA) v 11-14 (actual)

Aaron Cook - 12-8 v 9-15

Kelvim Escobar - 14-7 v 11-14

Nate Robertson - 15-6 v 13-13

Mark Hendrickson - 8-9 v 5-15

Roger Clemens - 11-2 v 7-6

Ben Sheets - 10-3 v 6-7

C.C. Sabathia - 15-7 v 12-11

Chris Capuano - 14-8 v 11-12

Jarrod Washburn - 12-11 v 8-14

Notable pitchers whose performance was much worse than their record:

Randy Johnson - 12-16 v 17-11

Chien-Ming Wang - 16-12 v 19-6

Steve Trachsel - 9-10 v 15-8 (Danger, Walt Jockety! Danger!)

Ryan Madson - 3-8 v 8-5

Freddie Garcia - 12-11 v 17-9

Carlos Zambrano - 13-11 v 16-7

Joe Blanton - 10-13 v 16-12

The big winners:

20 wins - Santana (20-8)

19 wins - Halladay (19-8), Carpenter (19-10)

18 wins - Zito (18-9), Lowe (18-10)

17 wins - Oswalt (17-4), Peavy (17-7), Webb (17-8), Bonderman (17-11), Millwood (17-11)

.750 win% (10+ wins) - Anibal Sanchez (11-1), Clemens (11-2), Liriano (12-2), Oswalt, Chris Young (15-4), Sheets (10-3), Jered Weaver (12-4)

As a team, the Cardinals starters compiled a 61-54 actual record and a 67-60 WPA record, meaning no net gain. The Yankees were helped by a strong offense and bullpen, pulling up their WPA record of 61-60 to an actual record of 74-40, a 16.5 game improvement. San Diego, by comparison, killed their record by 11 games, going from 69-40 down to 58-51; the majority of the cause is probably the run-dampening effects of Petco, as their bullpen was top notch.

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does this make it possible

for both starters to get a W?

If pitcher A pitches into the 5th and adds +.100 WPA and then leaves at the end of the inning. Is it possible for pitcher B to pitch a complete game and wind up with +.100 as well...

Regardless, I hope they someday calculate W and L along these lines so they aren't such meaningless numbers anymore.

by azruavatar on Feb 5, 2007 5:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sure

It's very possible; look at the infamous Reyes v CHA game. Both starting pitchers posted game values greater then +.250, but the StL lineup layed an egg and we lost. (And you can most definitely have both starters get the "L".)

The point of this exercise is to see whether or not a hurler pitched well enough to push his team toward victory. If the bullpen blows the game or the offense doesn't show up, it's not the starter's fault his team lost. If the starting pitcher is handed a 10-0 lead in the bottom of the first, he's not going to contribute much to the win, regardless of how well he pitches.

Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time.

by Solanus on Feb 6, 2007 11:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs