Super Sunday

by erik on Feb 4, 2007 3:32 PM EST in News Comment 23 comments

Sorry for the late post, had some personal matters that needed attending and I'll be pretty quick today. Besides, it's Super Bowl Sunday, not a lot of baseball news going on today. An ex-Cardinal was voted into the Hall of Fame yesterday, albeit not a baseball Cardinal.

lboros reference this already in a diary, but I'd hit on this point recently driven home by Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders, a Baseball Prospectus if you will of the football world, on how the 2006 Colts could be the new 2006 Cardinals.

15 of the last 17 Super Bowls have been won by a team that ranked either first or second in Pythagorean wins. The Bears were second this year, with 12.4 Pythagorean wins. The Colts were ninth, with 9.6 Pythagorean wins. If the Colts win the Super Bowl, they will become the first Super Bowl champion to ever have a Pythagorean winning percentage below .600 (albeit by a tiny margin).
Of course, just because something is improbable does not mean it is impossible. In fact, not only is this not impossible, it already happened just four months ago.
The 2006 St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series with just 82 Pythagorean wins. They had the second-lowest Pythagorean winning percentage of any World Series champion in baseball history. Like the Colts, they were coming off two great seasons where they failed to go all the way. Like the Colts, they are led by a superstar who is probably one of the greatest players in his sport's history. Like the Colts, their defense (pitching) fell apart during the regular season, and they looked weak entering the playoffs. Like the Colts, their defense dramatically improved during the post season, once again making them the formidable team they had been in 2004 and 2005. Like the Colts hope to do, they took home a title that they "deserved" more in previous seasons.

I'm not a huge football fan these days, I still consider the Rams my team though I only see them play maybe three times a year. But knowing that 'almost' feeling that the fans of Indy have experienced, I can feel their pain and know how good it feels for that pain to be relieved. Go Colts.

Ok, back to baseball a little. Jayson Stark is reporting that the Cardinals, Nats and Astros are in the running for Steve Trachsel. I'm not excited about that, not just because there are other in-house options, but because he's not called the Human Rain Delay for nothing. Here's a few of his various projections-

Bill James Handbook: 9 wins, 9 losses, 29 starts, 4.34 ERA, 164 innings pitched, 169 hits, 22 home runs, 61 walks, 96 K's

Chone Smith: 5.14 ERA, 140 innings, 159 hits, 21 HR, 62 BB, 67 K's

Marcel: 10 wins, 9 losses, 4.93 ERA, 146 innings, 160 hits, 20 homers, 64 BB, 83 K

ZiPS 10 wins, 12 losses, 4.77 ERA, 29 starts, 166 innings, 176 hits, 21 homers, 74 BB, 80 K.

Not horrid for a 5th starter, not particularly inspiring either. I have fond memories of Trachsel getting hammered, from Mark McGwire's 62nd home run to Jeff Suppan taking him deep in Game 3 of this past NLCS. I'd like to keep those fond memories as untainted as possible. At this point, I don't see how he's much better then Ryan Franklin, and I prefer to watch a baseball game in less then 5 hours.

0 recs | Comment 23 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Trachel Sucks

I heard is wanting 3MM. No Thanks. Brad Thompson or Chris Navaritson can put up those numbers for the league minimum- with better strikeout totals. Avoid.

2006 Cardinals- An underdog story

by Born in 82 on Feb 4, 2007 3:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The ZiPS ERA

is 4.77

by RedbirdRay on Feb 4, 2007 4:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

thanks ray

fixed.

Future Redbirds

by erik on Feb 4, 2007 5:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Human rain delay

I can just imagine Trachsel on a Sunday afternoon when it's greenhousing up to 110 degrees. Fans would die from the heat because nobody would leave the game. It makes my skin burn just to think about it.

Also, isn't Trachsel going to be 36 next year? When we have guys who can do the same thing for less money and more years, why would we want an oldster like that?

Let the Astros sign him so we can keep on beating the pants off of him.

by Phyrkrakr on Feb 4, 2007 4:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wouldn't be so bad

if he could put up those numbers and be in the neighborhood of 200 innings. But, at around 150...no thanks.

by Big Red on Feb 4, 2007 4:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The Human Rain delay

If the Cardinals freak out and sign Trachsel, I refuse to go to any game he starts. Please take a deep breath Walt and work through the in-house options first. If they are found wanting, acquiring a 5th starter as someone else's salary dump mid-season should not be a problem. This guy has no upside and will torture the Cardinal faithful from the mound.

by jjray on Feb 4, 2007 4:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Oh God

I'm going to have to take off of work the next day for any game he would start

by The Butcher on Feb 4, 2007 4:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Here's hoping ...

the Cardinals' "interest" in Trachsel is merely to drive up his price for the Astros.

matty fred is a web log.

by matty fred on Feb 4, 2007 4:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I have fond memories of Trachsel getting hammered

Well, I have fond memories of getting hammered during Trachsel's starts, as I normally have enough time to drink about five big Busch Stadium beers whenever he would pitch there. If it happens, it's would be yet another solid "meh" move by the Cards.

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Feb 4, 2007 4:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Just when we get rid of all the

ex-Cubs, here comes another one. We'll never repeat if we pick this turkey up.

by Red in Chicago on Feb 4, 2007 4:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

ex-cub

I noticed that LaRussa is an ex-cub. I still don't want Trachsel.

by stl4all on Feb 5, 2007 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

blech

I'm tired of the veteran starting pitcher obsession. I'd rather see Thompson or Narveson in the 5th spot than Traschel, Looper or Franklin.

by azruavatar on Feb 4, 2007 7:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Who'd a thunk it

The L.A. Dodgers gave Larry Bigbe a minor leage deal.

by viva el rojo pajaro 42 on Feb 4, 2007 9:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ugh

I hope we don't land Trachsel. He is a poor man's Miguel Batista in this market; old, terrible K/BB ratio, but without the groundball tendencies to keep the ball in the park. I can't believe the cardinals are really interested in him for more than a minor league deal.

Anyway, does the UZR guy still work for the Cardinals? And does anyone know a place where the numbers for 2006 have been posted?

All my friends became Cardinal fans and grew up happy and liberal. I became a Cub fan and grew up imbittered and conservative." -- George Will

by wannabeGedman on Feb 4, 2007 9:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I don't believe so.

UZR is also not released to the public. Go read through some of the World Series threads over at The Book site, tangotiger.net I think it is, MGL is hysterical. A running commentary of LaRussa's moves IIRC.

You are all assuming that Trachsel would be competing with Franklin for the 5th starter job, which would be bad enough, but I'm envisioning much much worse implications that I'm not going to actually type.

by plh903 on Feb 4, 2007 11:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not a fan

I also believe our interest in Trachsel is to drive up the price for the Astros. Like others, I don't see how he's any different from Franklin. The problem is that he would get a guaranteed contract, take up a roster spot from someone who might offer something different, and possibly allow Walt to hold off on trading for another SP. Let's go ahead and let Franklin and Narveson battle for the 5th spot and see what happens.

On another note, Derrick Goold wrote a couple of days ago about 4 man rotations and how the Cards, this year, seemed perfect for it. He quotes Will Carroll of BP who said that, "the five-man is a failed experiment." It does seem that the Cards staff this year is ideally suited for a 4 man rotation. The only negative is that I remember Carp's numbers being terrible on short rest and great on an extra day's rest. Plus, it would be difficult to determine when to pull Carp when he has a lead and has thrown, say, 85 pitches. If done right, it could work. It seems as though the 5th starter is, on almost every team, the worst or 2nd worst pitcher on the staff. He certainly will be on the Cards' staff this year. I know LaRussa and Duncan have no plans to try it, but it could work.

http://www.stltoday.com/blogs/sports-bird-land/2007/02/modest-proposal-a-four-man-rotation/

by chuckb on Feb 4, 2007 10:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

4 starters

I think the 4 starter thing would never work.

We can't risk tearing down Carpenter's shoulder with such frequent starts. Carp had a rough stretch right before the All-Star break last year and another rough stretch in late September. The guy's a stud, he gives us more than we can ask for 80% of the time. And with his extended contract for another 5 years, we don't need to ruin him now.
Tony loves to toy with his pitchers. I could see him using the bullpen after a starter threw 85-90 pitchers. But each night he would use 25 bullpen guys (ok, maybe 5), effectively ruining the pen for the long haul, or for back to back long outings.
The number 5 starter is gonna suck, undoubtedly. That's why he's #5. If he only goes 5-6 innings half the time, so what... it is expected. Might as well take our chances and hope for a good start to save the 'pen the other half the times.

Like you said, it's not gonna happen. Don't mean to beat a dead horse, but I hate the idea of a 4 man rotation. It's been tossed around a bit before, and it just can't be done.

Unless you can make a team of Carpenter, Halladay, Livan Hernandez, and... maybe Cy Young, it just can't be done succesfully.

by DuncanDipper on Feb 5, 2007 12:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Except that

every team before the mid seventies had a four man. If anything, we have more injuries today. There is anecdotal evidence that starters throw harder today, but the non-prevalence of radar guns and velocity data from the sixties makes this anecdotal at best.

by Valatan on Feb 5, 2007 2:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Um, no.

Actually, this year is definitely not an ideal year to try the 4 man. Not with Carp and Reyes, anyway.

Any level of rudimentary analysis shows that Carp doesn't do well on short rest, and in fact, he thrives on an extra day of rest. Reyes also seems susceptible to "tired arm". This has been discussed on VEB here and here.

A 4-man rotation would be a disaster for the Cardinals. We're much better off throwing a replacement level pitcher out there every 5th day and taking our chances.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Feb 5, 2007 12:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Steve Trachsel

To quote Nancy Reagan, just say NO!

by Zubin on Feb 5, 2007 1:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Is Shawn Estes still availible?

Elmer Dessens?

Traschel? really? Is this some sort of 'desperation' strategy to set up a trade?

by Valatan on Feb 5, 2007 2:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I Agree With Everyone

steve traschel sucks. i never, EVER want to see him wearing a Cardinals uniform.

Big Props to Payton and the Colts for their win last night. I really only care about the Dallas Cowboys when it comes to the NoFunLeague. but i've always liked Payton and Harrison, and Tony Dungy is a good christian man. before Edge left last year they reminded me of the good old days the Cowboys had with the Triplets. Emmitt(before he started dancing) Troy and The Playmaker. anyway, very glad the Colts won. and the biggest bonus of all? it kept the windy city from wining a championship. i am for any team that keeps those snobs from wining anything.

The 2006 St.Louis Cardinals. WORLD CHAMPIONS OF THE WORLD. And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Feb 5, 2007 4:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Colts vs. Chicago

And let the people say Amen. It's been a weird year to be a Cardinals fan in Indiana. I have this feeling that if the Blues and the Pacers make the playoffs...watch out. I know about four or five teams in the NHL West need to tank for the Blues to get in, but you never know.

by lordsummer on Feb 5, 2007 8:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs