before we look at the projection results, some day-after-presidents-day readings and musings:
- i got a few thoughts off my chest about ronnie belliard.
- sjoshi gets a few thoughts off his chest about rick ankiel, the creature that would not die. speaking of whom: he's featured in today's p-d.
- at Beyond the Boxscore, ryan vb (founder of Diaspora and writer of the Rams blog Turf Show Times) examines larry walker's hall-of-fame brief.
- in new york, they're still frozen by wagonmaker's bender, still watching it go by . . . .
- blez Q+As A's manager bob geren at Athletics Nation
- Gaslamp Ball recently concluded its Q+A with paul depodesta: read part 1, part 2, and part 3.
we had 51 entries in the wells projection. here's how our line stacks up against various others; they're listed in ascending era order:
the "CCH" line refers to Cardinals Clubhouse, which is taking VEB's cue and running its own set of community projections. fascinating, isn't it, that the two separate communities of cardinal fans arrived at nearly identical projections for kip wells? exact same won-loss record, near-exact matches in era and whip; even the walk and k rates and the hr/9 are an almost perfect fit. that's creepy. and it's a trend: compare our edmonds projection to CCH's:
i went over and checked out the CCH threads, wondering if perhaps the same guys posting numbers here are also posting over there; that would explain the similar outcomes. but it doesn't appear to be the case; it looks as if we have two discrete groups of forecasters, arriving at the same conclusions independently. this can mean only one thing --- and when i figure out what that is, i'll let you know. . . .
anyway, back to wells: if we lump all the projections together (i counted the twin cardinal projections as one, to avoid skewing the average), we come up with the following composite projection for wells:
that's not quite what we VEBbers have in mind for the guy. the innings are probably too low; before last season, wells threw 133 innings or more 5 consecutive years, with a yearly average of 170 ip. but let's take the composite projection on its face: would that suffice? let's view it alongside the line compiled by the two departed pitchers he's being asked to replace:
the second line elides ponson's 1-inning stint as a relief pitcher; those stats cover 28 starts (13 ponson, 15 weaver). so if wells --- this year's reclamation project --- can hit his rather modest composite projection, he'll more or less replace last year's reclamation jobs; fewer innings, but better results. that's not a particularly high bar to clear, but the comparison places things into some context. if wells simply approximates the ponson/weaver line, and carp approximates his line from last season, then the rotation improves if the remaining 3 starters include
- one guy who approximates suppan's production (ie, an era in the low 4s), and
- two guys who post ERAs below 6.00
a final note: both cardinal communities mirrored PECOTA's projection for wells, with one rather massive caveat: we hometowners expect wells to throw twice as many innings as PECOTA does. here's PECOTA times 2, alongside our projections --- the CCH guys were spot-on this one:
so if we just clone the guy, we've got ourselves a decent #3 starter.