Strange Addiction.....

by Lawless on Feb 20, 2007 9:57 PM EST

I'm a numbers guy (CPA) and baseball is a numbers game. I have every BA prospect handbook from 2001-2007 and Deric McKamey's minor league baseball analyst. I enjoy vivaelbirdos and have found myself reading futureredbirds often as well. Sucker for numbers and like nothing better than watching a dominant pitcher (circa Rick Ankiel in Y2K).

With than in mind what I find most interesting in Spring Training is watching all of the guys who are out of options that could be had on the "reallllyyyy" cheap b/c the alternative is losing them for nothing. With that in mind a 25 year old starting pitcher "prospect" is out of options this year. Interesting tidbits about this guy:

In BA prospect handbook every year since it inception (01-07). I don't think there is another player that can "boast" that. (He just turned 25)
Fastball that peaked at 101 out of high school and pitches typically at 94/95 now while peaking at 96
Three plus pitches
2006 AAA #s - 2.33 ERA, 209 BA Against, 8+K/IP
Self-nicknamed the "Real Deal"

All could be had on the cheap in place of the Braden Looper/Ryan Franklin's of the world... or just for insurance. If you are interested in knowing who the mystery pitcher is click - Read More.... Drumroll.....

JD Durbin

Anyone know where there is a link for guys who are out of options this spring (would make for an interesting article IMHO)? Seems like there could be some gems...or at least a few league average dudes.

Poll

Who will be the best starting pitcher long term?

JD Durbin

2 votes

Adam Wainright

24 votes

Blake Hawksworth

5 votes

Yusmerio Petit

0 votes

Any #3 Starter

0 votes

31 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 15 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

interesting suggestion

but this guy's a bad injury risk. he only pitched 90 innings last year; had to shut it down in june with a biceps injury. this after two years of shoulder injuries (tendinitis in 2004, torn labrum in 2005). per cbs sportsline: "While he no longer throws in the high-90s, he's learning to overcome adversity. He could be a candidate for the Twins rotation this spring."

his career minor-league stats: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/D/J.D.-Durbin.shtml

his myspace page: http://profile.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=user.viewprofile&friendID=22011180

by lboros on Feb 20, 2007 10:13 PM EST reply actions

Agreed

Definitely has durability issues. The fact that McKamey had him pitching 89-96 and maintaing a ++++ fastball and ++++su (whatever that is) in 2006 had me intrigued though (i.e. post surgery he can still dial it up. Just seems like a guy who has potential that could be had for next to nothing. I realize we already have a glut of pitchers, but this guy has to much potential IMO not to find a place on the roster for. To me when the cost is so low I figure what is there to lose?

Thanks for the links...

by Lawless on Feb 21, 2007 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

not to mention

the guy has no class... "T&A for me"???

guy looks like a total poser... but he seems to get a lot of the above, esp for a career minor leaguer. GL dude, but I don't want to see you anywhere near wainright, reyes and duncan anytime soon.

"God is back in the National League. Matter of fact, he is staying at my house." -Joaqin Andujar

by SleepyCA on Feb 26, 2007 2:14 AM EST up reply actions

Actually he just was on

Rotoworld's news feed. You can read what they said about him by scrolling down here.

I don't know anything about him but I thought I'd toss that in there.

by azruavatar on Feb 20, 2007 10:14 PM EST reply actions

Promising Pitchers, Out of Options, on 40-man

I'll toss out a few names of pitchers who'll have to clear waivers if they don't make their teams to get this started.

Tyler Yates of the Braves
Ben Hendrickson of the Brewers
Santiago Cassila of the A's
Scott Dunn of the A's

by liam on Feb 21, 2007 12:36 AM EST reply actions

Liam

I just knew you were going to have a list of pitchers that fit this criteria. I am continually amazed at your ability to find esoteric players at the high minors level. How do you do it?

by azruavatar on Feb 21, 2007 1:49 AM EST up reply actions

Started at the beginning of the alphabet

The cludge for the Oakland pitchers was to look at their 40-man roster and check who doesn't show up, or shows up low, on the depth chart. Casilla's a pretty good looking reliever, but has an interesting history. Dunn walks a ton of batters. John Parrish in Baltimore is worth keeping an eye on, to see how he comes back from TJ.

I've been meaning to put together a list of these guys to see how big of a herd Narveson will be crossing those crocodile-choked streams with—especially potential starters.

by liam on Feb 21, 2007 3:05 AM EST up reply actions

Notes on Petit...

His stock has dropped significantly in the past few months. Both BA and Sickles have downgraded him saying that his success was based largely on fooling hitters with tricks and not necessarily good pitches. He doesn't have enough plus pitches to warrant a spot in the rotation and projects probably as long relief at best.

I voted Wainwright. Yes, write that down, the person who has been labeled in the past few days as a naysayer actually voted for a Cardinal. I really think Wainwright will have a successful first year as a starter and will build from there. I like him better than Reyes, namely I think his mental toughness is better as his command. On a scouting aspect, I don't know who's pitches are viewed as better, but I Wainwright has shown me more in a shorter time than Reyes.

Then again, that list is pretty weak.

by Brock20 on Feb 21, 2007 8:19 AM EST up reply actions

Thanks for the list

Just got me thinking how many guys out there are thrown out that could be useful to another team. Also, in terms of far out trade possibilities. Could you imagine Rick Ankiel playing CF for the fish to start the season (I know he needs time in AAA, but could you believe a Petit for Ankiel trade)?

by Lawless on Feb 21, 2007 2:03 PM EST up reply actions

That would be shocking

If they wanted Ankiel bad enough to trade a decent pitcher for him, they could have outbid us between the time we'd non-tendered him and signed him as a minor-league FA.

by liam on Feb 21, 2007 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

A good resource for this

If you look at the transactions pages for Nov and Dec 2004, you'll see all the players who were added to 40-man rosters prior to the Rule 5 draft.

Here's Oakland's page for 11/2004, for example. It'd be a good place to start by collecting all the names of players who were added by all teams then and checking to see how many of them are still struggling to make the jump to a big league club (if still in the game at all).

That'd leave out players who were added to their rosters mid-season, but it's as good a first-pass search strategy that I can think of. I've noticed that teams and most beat writers tend to be a little close lipped when it comes to talking about their team's players who are out of options, so it takes some digging.

by liam on Feb 21, 2007 2:48 PM EST up reply actions

Doing too many things at once

I should have used my fingers before trying to count to three. You'd want to look at players who were added to 40-man rosters (had their contracts purchased) in November of 2003, not 2004. The full list of MLB transactions for that month is at this page. It's a good start.

I notice that Brian Falkenborg is out of options now, although how he still had one last season is beyond my ken.

by liam on Feb 21, 2007 3:03 PM EST up reply actions

The Marlins have far better pitchers....

that they are shopping. Ankiel plus say one of our top thirty prospects in the twenty to thirty range, might convince them to move something that would be worthwhile. They were shopping Ricky Nolasco who I much rather have than Petit. I wasn't blunt enough about Petit, the league has figured him out and he doesn't have the stuff to make up for it.

Nolasco's PECOTA comp on the low side is Suppan.

by Brock20 on Feb 21, 2007 2:36 PM EST reply actions

I like Durbin

Guy has big time arm strength. In the past, he was seen as a very brash type, I think he referred to himself as "the Real Deal", or something similar. Through his arm troubles, his velocity is down a shade, but his maturity and attitude have supposedly taken big steps forward.

If he shakes loose, I would love to see the Cardinals take a flyer on the guy.

Petit sucks. That's the extent of my analysis there.

by the red baron on Feb 21, 2007 6:57 PM EST reply actions

Durbin and Petit

I'd say we share the same view on Durbin, but I am very pro-Petit. I don't consider myself a pure "stats" guy, but just have a feeling that Dunc could do something with the guy. Don't get me wrong, if I could get H. Bailey, M. Pelfrey, P. Hughes, I would rather have them, but Petit could be had for next to nothing and will play the entire 2007 season at age 22 with an unbelievable minor league stat line (10K/9IP, 220 Bavg Against). I'm not saying he would come in and do the job immediately but I will say that I think he compares favorably to the S. Pomeranz, M. Parisi, C. Lambert's of the world.

Think of it this way he entered last year as a 21 year old entering his first full season of AAA. He held his own there then was destroyed in the majors. If memory serves the same could be said for Glavine, Maddux, Schilling, R. Johnson, K. Brown, J. Moyer, K. Rogers and just about every other good pitcher (given the best comp in this group would be J. Moyer).

Again, umpopular as it is I have taken an irrational liking to Yusmerio Petit.

I would have never expected that....

by Lawless on Feb 21, 2007 10:57 PM EST up reply actions