capuano follow-up

by lboros on Dec 3, 2007 8:50 AM EST in News Comment 106 comments

in yesterday's post, houstoncardinal suggested that chris capuano might have been a victim of the brewers' terrible defense last year. the numbers back him up. here's a table summarizing the fielding values of the milwaukee infielders in 2007 (as measured in runs above/below average). the metrics are zone rating plus (ie, the chris dial / chone smith method); pinto's probabilistic model of range; john dewan's +/- system, aka the Fielding Bible (FB); and, where available, UZR:

	ZR+	PMR	FB	UZR
fielder 1b	-10	-3	-11	-9
weeks 2b	-10	-14	-12	n/a
hardy ss	-5	0	+5	n/a
braun 3b	-24	-21	-30	n/a

he'd be a lot better served by the cards' infield. they had gold glove-caliber players at both infield corners and an average defender at second; with ryan / izturis manning the shortstop position next year, they should be no worse than average there. a couple of caveats, though. first, capuano's not much of a groundball pitcher; his career ratio is about 1:1 (although he did have a slight groundball tendency last year). better infield defense surely won't hurt, but it won't help capuano as much as it would a more groundball-oriented pitcher; the cards' outfield defense is no better than the brewers' (and might be worse). second point: if scott rolen is part of the price to land capuano . . . . well, there goes one of the gold-glove defenders on which this line of thinking rests. but here are a couple of additional considerations: first, capuano's BABIP last year was a flukishly high .340, 34 points higher than his career average of .306; that number is likely to come down next year, bringing his run yield down along with it. and second, his strand rate last year was 68 percent, or 5 points lower than his career average (and on a par with anthony reyes'); if he reverts to the mean there, he ought to keep a few extra runs off the board. as HC pointed out, capuano's FIP last year was right in line w/ his FIPs from 2005-06, when he pitched very well; overall, there's a sound basis for the belief that this pitcher will bounce back next year.

he made $3.25m last year and is two years away from free agency. it'll be difficult to work out a deal with a division rival, and they probably won't succeed. but if he's the type of pitcher the cards are looking to trade for, i'm encouraged.

also re the trade front, heading into the winter meetings: don't forget about the giants. they are looking to deal, and they have arms to spare.

* * * * * * * * *

Baseball Prospectus did a Q+A with new pittsburgh gm neal huntington, who worked with chris antonetti in the cleveland front office. couple of highlights:

We are building an environment in which we will utilize the subjective and objective information at our disposal and weigh it accordingly to create a complete evaluation of a given player. By subjective, we are basically talking about scouting reports, what our evaluators see, and what they can tell us about the progression or regression of individual players. In a perfect world, the data provides one perspective, and the evaluators provide another. We will balance and blend the perspectives to make an optimal assessment of value. I place a lot of value in numbers, but there are some things that can't be quantified, and there are times scouting reports are needed to understand the elements behind the numbers. . . . .

The quick fixes that have been taken in the past --- that you see happen around the league with some teams --- are not something we'll be interested in here. Free agent signings that make a small, incremental difference in on-field performance don't have much of an impact on wins. Those decisions are decisions we need to try and avoid, especially when they come at the expense of money that could have been better utilized in player acquisition and development. If the extra pieces added could lead to two or three wins being added and are the difference between making the playoffs or not, that's a different scenario and that short-term move has long-reaching positive impact. That would be progress, so the expense would be justifiable. But if you're talking about potentially 78 wins instead of potentially 76, it is difficult to justify.

refreshing views; music to the saberphile's ears. chris antonetti, who worked with huntington in the cleveland front office, would have brought both those principles to st louis. will mozeliak? the jury's still out, but unlike some observers, i've seen no evidence so far to suggest that he won't adhere to them; it remains to be proven whether he will. from what little we've seen so far, i am generally encouraged. i don't agree w/ every decision he's made, but i see the broad outlines (hope it's not just an illusion) of a strategy that makes sense: tighten up the defense; bulk up on innings; hope edmonds / rolen stay healthy and top .800 in ops; and above all, avoid short-sighted decisions that commit the team to mediocre (or worse) players beyond 2008. it ain't dynamic, but for a team that got outscored by 104 runs last year and has an injured ace, it's a defensible approach.

2008 ROSTER MATRIX
PRE-WINTER MEETINGS

STARTING 8	BENCH	ROTATION	PEN
molina c $1.2m	spiezio ut $2.3m	wainwright rhp $450K	is'hausen rhp $8m
pujols 1b $16m	schumaker of $400K	looper rhp $5.5m	franklin rhp $2.3m
kennedy 2b $3.5m	ryan if $400K	pineiro rhp $5m	springer rhp $3.5m
rolen 3b $12m	larue c $850K	mulder lhp $6.5m	flores lhp $1m
izturis ss $2.9m	ludwick of $400K	reyes rhp $400K	johnson lhp $400K
duncan lf $450K	miles if $1.2m	carpenter rhp $10.5m	wellemeyer rhp $900K
edmonds cf $8m	barden if memphis	hawksworth rhp memphis	thompson rhp $450k
ankiel rf $1m	encarnacion rf $6.5m	parisi rhp memphis	cavazos rhp memphis
TOTAL $45m	TOTAL $10.8m	TOTAL $28.4m	TOTAL $16.5m
OVERALL	PAYROLL:	$100.7m

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Comments

juan

one of the big hurts here is juan. think there is a chance juan might take a kind of annuitized payout that cuts his annual expense to 1-2M. will the player's assoc allow that?

by sportsman on Dec 3, 2007 9:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

the union won't and shouldn't allow it

and encarnacion shouldn't agree to it, or even consider it. nor should the cardinals even propose it. encarnacrion was injured on the job, through no fault of his own; his career is probably over, and his quality of life is in jeopardy. he's fully entitled to every penny.

by lboros on Dec 3, 2007 9:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

pay cut

wasn't suggesting a cut in his total, just an annuitization that cut his immediate cost in favor of a longer payout. annuitization was intended to indicate that it would be with interest. not trying to screw the dude, just change the structure to tax the payroll less this year, but pay him over a longer period.

by sportsman on Dec 3, 2007 9:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it's still asking him to do the club a favor

what's in it for him? if the club were to propose this and throw in some juice --- not just adding in interest, but increasing the base pay --- encarnacion might have a reason to consider it. but there's no way the cards would contemplate that.

besides, the cardinals are better served to get this burden off the books in 2008, a year when they're not likely going to win anything anyway, as opposed to having that burden on the books in future seasons that are potentially more fruitful.

by lboros on Dec 3, 2007 9:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

enc.

Lboros, I am a financial advisor. I have MANY clients forego distributions from IRA's, and 401(k)'s in favor of a payment made over their lifetime or a fixed period. It makes tons of sense, especially in a high-income environment. Juan would get to spread his income out over a long time. This would lower his overall income tax bill by a LOT. Instead of taking $10 million in one year, paying income taxes on that, and never making another dime in his life (potentially), Juan could recognize a small portion of that income annually over his lifetime. His tax liability would be reduced substantially.

I know it was an off-the-wall suggestion, but it may make a lot of sense in Juan's case.

I'm a man, a manly, manly, man. Unknown

by Eckstreem on Dec 3, 2007 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

this is...

the type of thing i was thinking about this morning when i saw this comment

if juan wanted a situation like this, say $300,000 a year for 30 years (which would benefit him about $2.5 million over the long run); then i would be ok with it, but only if he was the one who wanted to do it that way

Pujols is the greatest Cardinal in my lifetime.

by bigcardsfan5 on Dec 3, 2007 7:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

right, he should do whatever suits his purposes

not what suits the cards' 2008 payroll needs.

but i think it's all a moot point --- the cards are gonna pay him his mnoney and get him off their books, and that will be that.

by lboros on Dec 3, 2007 7:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I assume...

...that they have insurance that will pay a decent portion of the contract (60-80%).

by BigJawnMize on Dec 3, 2007 9:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i thought

insurance was used only for the big time contracts like pujols, carpenter and maybe rolen's (it was huge at the time of contracting).

those premiums are seriously steep. it might not be worth it for a three-year commitment with average dollars in juan's case.

by birdsonthebat on Dec 3, 2007 10:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re: insurance

I asked this exact question a month or two ago, and the answer I got was that it's not insured, with the reason being that usually only pitchers get contracts with insurance on them, and it's uncommon for a position player to have it written into his contract (Mr. Bagwell excluded). No link was provided, but 2 responses generated the same answer: no insurance - the Cards are on the hook for the entire 6.5 mil.

by SmashedAtoms on Dec 3, 2007 10:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Strauss

confirmed this in a chat a couple of months ago.

No insurance.

youneverknow

by meat on Dec 3, 2007 5:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Juan has made $27 M in his career

2008 salary or not, I think he'll do fine monetarily.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 3, 2007 11:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Right

But the money is still owed. The point isn't whether he'll be fine monetarily, the point is that the Cards still owe him his 2008 salary. Also, your standard of living adjusts when you make millions -- I'm sure Juan was counting on at least a couple more years of income beyond his service with the Cards that he now won't have.

by Ray Lankford on Dec 3, 2007 11:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

here's the other thing i don't get, Hardcore

you're usually not one to worry about mr dewitt's pocketbook. but in this case, it sounds like you're saying encarnacion should make a voluntary contribution to the team treasury.

by lboros on Dec 3, 2007 11:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

LB

I agree with lboros here. Pay Juan in full, offer him a position with the team working in the latin leagues and call it done. I still hope the guy gets back to 100% but I won't ever count on it.

by StLHugo on Dec 3, 2007 11:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I third that motion...

The Red Blazer

by Red Blazer on Dec 3, 2007 12:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it doesn't really matter

they aren't going to spend the money anyways.

I feel for Juan's situation not having the quality of life that no human should lose but I wouldn't particulalry feel sorry for him if he got the remaining $6.5 M.

I believe, being a retired MLB player, when he reaches 60 years old, he'll start getting $200,00 a year in pension. He is also afforded health care for the rest of his life.

Correct me if I'm wrong on any of those.

it's not like they are NOT going to pay him. I feel terrible that the man will never be able to see again out of that eye but I won't fear his 2008 paycheck will be the difference between living comfortably or not.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 3, 2007 11:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not trying to pick a fight . . .

but a person "not having the quality of life that no human should lose" is exactly the type of person you should feel sorry for, regardless of whether that person makes 6.5 mill or not. It's almost like you are saying, "yeah it was bad, but since he's due another 6.5 mill next year and won't be playing ball, then I don't feel sorry for him."

by Ray Lankford on Dec 3, 2007 12:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hardcore's statement

I actually think i get whathe's saying. And since there was copmparison to working on the job i'll drop this. He'res lifes reality when you get hurt at a job at least ones i've worked you geta pay cut

When I was injured at Target and missed some days I got less than full salary.. it's the way its set up in alot of jobs like that...So I kinda see his point the difference between 3-6 mil isnt that great

however The cards should covere ALL medical expenses.

I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punchinjudy hitter-major league 2

by punchinjudy on Dec 3, 2007 12:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I feel bad that he won't have his vision

I don't, however, worry that he won't be able to make ends meet for the rest of his life.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 3, 2007 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's not that bad...

Unless I'm missing something, he's only lost his vision in one eye. Which will affect his depth perception, but other than that, he can live a perfectly normal life. (As I can attest, as I have a bad eye. I can see though it, but not very well)

Don't get me wrong, it's a tragedy to lose sight in an eye. But it's not like he's going to have to walk aorund with a dog and cane.

by DiscoJer on Dec 3, 2007 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He won't get

a pension because he doesn't have ten years of service time. About half a season short. That's off the top of my head, so I could also be wrong, of course.

I don't know what feeling sorry for him has anything to do with it, other than that's how you feel. Which is fine. Doesn't really change anything.

by plh903 on Dec 3, 2007 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OK, I don't

think that's right. I can't find it in the new CBA however. I'd like to know though if anyone knows the specifics.

by plh903 on Dec 3, 2007 12:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Found this site:

http://www.askmen.com/sports/business_100/109b_sports_business.html

"An agreement in 1968 set the requirements to receive a pension after five years. But the 1981 strike reduced that time frame to 43 days for a full pension and just one day for full medical benefits. But this change only impacted athletes who played after 1980, and resulted in a class-action lawsuit."

So he gets full pension.

by StLHugo on Dec 3, 2007 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Benefits.

I have a client that is a former MLB player. He and his wife have informed me that he needed to log 3 years on a 40-man roster to get his full benefits for life. His understanding was that every day on the 40-man roster counted as service time in the big leagues. He was getting paid the mlb minimum salary even when in AAA because he was on the 40-man roster.

I'm a man, a manly, manly, man. Unknown

by Eckstreem on Dec 3, 2007 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No matter

how one feels about Enc personally, and whether or not one thinks he was worth $5MM/yr, he deserves every cent remaining on his contract. It's the quality of the rest of his life that matters most here, not the money.

"It's always about the money. Anyone who says it's not is lying."- Gene Simmons

by cardsrul on Dec 3, 2007 11:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Juan

I really do hope the guy is able to get a great deal of his sight back.

He should be paid in full and I agree with LB that you might as well pay him right away to get it off the books. It does not benefit you to draw it out.

I think Juan was frustrating at times but I think he was a solid ball player who put up good numbers by the end of the year no matter where he played. Heck he was about the 4th most productive player on the team last year. Maybe even better.

by ICbirdfan on Dec 3, 2007 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And who knows

what kind of problems he may have to deal with the rest of his life. It may not be that he just can't see out of one eye and is perfectly healthy and pain-free otherwise. He may have migraines or other types of head/neck pains, seizures, etc. as well as partial blindness. As much as I didn't really care for him as a player, I hope he gets every penny he has coming. Believe it or not, even several million dollars may not be worth what he could possibly have to deal with in the future.

by rockin redbird on Dec 3, 2007 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

as in any other injury

if he goes and can prove that the setbacks u mentioned are from that eye injury the company(Cardinals) usually has to cover those expenses. I believe that medical expenses in will be covered for life.

The mil dollars issue from his contract wouldnt be going to medical bills neway so im not sure how that works...unless MLB is different and they have their players who get hurt pay for their bills but thatd be weird.

I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punchinjudy hitter-major league 2

by punchinjudy on Dec 3, 2007 4:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

True--

it would all be covered. But what I meant was that millions of dollars don't necessarily make an injury better, physically or mentally. I'd rather have less money but good health (which is basically my case so far in this life--fingers crossed) than have millions but deal with migraines or some other brutally painful chronic condition every day. A big bank account aint always the cure for what ails ya.

by rockin redbird on Dec 3, 2007 5:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

great point

i have migranes and take preventatives and thers days where nothing helps so i see your point about the money and agree i am with HC on this I think the cards could give him less (assuming all med. issues are covered) and not come off as the bad guy...As I said buisness do it all the time. in the event of injury you are not given full salary but are given full medical compensation. It sucks but its a reality...It makes u wish ud never get hurt..cause what they dont cover(not sure with enc) is the gas to the doc which is pricey...I would hope the cards cover his flights to various docs around the country cause that would be spendy millions or not

I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punchinjudy hitter-major league 2

by punchinjudy on Dec 3, 2007 6:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

MGL had

this to say about the missing Braun UZR data point:

Braun would certainly be the worst, if he qualified. Even using zero UZR to make up the games he "missed" he is still probably the worst. That is a shame since he is such a good hitter, and his poor defense takes most (75% or so) of his hitting value away.

Yikes.

As far as Capuano goes, it might be misinterpreted that he'll doubly save runs by both lowering his LOB% and his BABIP, when those things are essentially the same thing, I believe. A couple of fluke hits advance that lead runner who never would've scored otherwise.

by plh903 on Dec 3, 2007 9:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wow

Shit that is a lot of runs. I was reading some where that he had a runs created was around 100. That means he is giving close to 75 runs back with his glove. That is just mind boggling. I have to be reading stats wrong...

by BigJawnMize on Dec 3, 2007 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

lol wowzers

In 945 innings he cost 31.2 runs (per THT's stats) and per baseball-references.com he created 102 runs in 492 PAs...

"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Dec 3, 2007 8:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ok, help me out

Sorry for the OT question but I'm still figuring the fielding stats stuff out- where do you get 31.2 runs from THT?

I see: (ryan braun@THT)

BIZ Plays RZR OOZ
225 127 .564 21

(also, THT says 95 RC... interesting discrepancy!)

what calculations did you do to get 31.2? Or is there a different data source?

It's easier not to make the mistake than to make the mistake and try to fix it. -Mo

by SleepyCA on Dec 3, 2007 9:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The

RC discrepancy is more than likely just using a different formula, as a few exist. BR uses "the technical" version when all data is available. Some RC formulas take into account "clutchiness" by using RISP stats.

As for the THT to Runs a cat over at a reds blog (awesome overall blog btw) came up with a formula to convert the THT stats into runs.

"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Dec 3, 2007 10:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Heh

Yeah, he must mean his hitting value above an average third baseman, or replacement level. So that's between -20 and -40. (+34 in lwts at a neutral position this year, -20 would be replacement to MGL, I believe).

by plh903 on Dec 4, 2007 1:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Depth

As pointed out to me on a Brewer site, Capuano isn't really in the Brewers plans for this year's rotaion.

Sheets
Gallardo
Suppan
Villaneuva
Bush/Parra

Odd men out: Varga & Cappy.

There was even talk of DFA'n Bush. I have always drooled over him.

by RedbirdRay on Dec 3, 2007 9:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Vargas

But, hey, I bet that Varga guy is good too.

by RedbirdRay on Dec 3, 2007 9:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

if they DFA Bush

we should think about picking him up. He's probably a better fit for our team, especially if our new SS can actually play SS (not sold on that myself).

Anyway Dave Pinto's PMR tool provides more evidence to support the claim that MIL's awful defense was a cause of Capuano's bad luck. Only 7 pitchers in MLB had worse defense behind them than Capuano; he had 11 plays not made that should have been, and the only MIL player with a significantly good "luck" is Gallardo, an extreme fly ball pitcher. Comparing our rotation vs MIL's in '07:

STL
Braden Looper +15.7
Anthony Reyes +7
Brad Thompson -1.45
Adam Wainwright -6.57
Kip Wells -18.5 (2nd worst, overall! No '06 data, +12 in '05 w/PIT)

MIL:
David Bush -17.87 (5th worst, down from +17 in '06, no data '05)
Chris Capuano -10.78 (8th worst, down from +14 in '06 and +8.5 in '05)
Jeff Suppan -10.96 (19th worst, and dropped from +15 with STL in '06, +2.76 in '05)
Claude Vargas -2.02
Ben Sheets +0.26 (down from +6.74 in '06, no data '05)
C. Villanueva +0.74
Yo. Gallardo +6.33

If you're believer that pitchers can't control the field-ability of balls hit off of them, both Bush and Capuano (and kip wells) could all be guys likely to bounce back. At the very least you have top keep in mind that there seem to be extreme variations in these numbers from year to year. However, seeing Kip Wells at the bottom of the list makes me wary about coming to the conclusion that high negative numbers on this metric are an indication of bad luck; I remember seeing him get hit very hard.

Still, it's something to think about ;)

It's easier not to make the mistake than to make the mistake and try to fix it. -Mo

by SleepyCA on Dec 3, 2007 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

kip wells

i know the numbers may suggest a regression to the mean (progression), but i agree with your fear of wells. i think this is a great place to pull in the human element. the guy gets rocked. he's got "great stuff," but he throws it over the middle of the plate. i also remember a lot of people saying that he takes too long in between pitches, which (as the theory goes) puts the defense on its heels. i wonder, is there any data on time between pitches? if so, i'd like to see the correlation between balls batted in play and the time between pitches.

by birdsonthebat on Dec 3, 2007 5:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

sadly

I remember a VEB poster citing a bone fide study showing there was NO correlation. That is, no statistical evidence to show a benefit to a pitcher who 'works quick.'
However, having played baseball many years as a youngster, and watched a lot more of it ever since, I firmly believe that when a pitcher goes mental on ya, it tends to hurt.
And if I am drinking cool-aid on this, so are virtually every broadcaster I've ever heard, or sportswriter I've ever read.

A myth, then? I don't think so.

And I agree that Wells, last year, sometimes got into an "earth to Kip" brown jug.

by the Tewk on Dec 3, 2007 9:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

vargas and bush

would be nice to add with what we have then trade for a number 2 starter. I just dont think it will be with the brewers..

by cm1000 on Dec 3, 2007 9:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

is mo the lone ranger

"We now take you back to those thrilling days of yesteryear when"
capuano was a good pitcher
when joel piniero was a goof pitcher
when cesar izturis was a good shortstop
.......

tough job when it really boils down to be an alchemist and turn lead into gold as the only way to make the team competitive.

by sportsman on Dec 3, 2007 9:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lead

Well, as evidenced by both Larry and HC's posts and most of our comments...the majority doesn't think Cappy is lead.

Also, few assume Mo is really trying to be competitive this year.

Was the lone ranger an alchemist?

by RedbirdRay on Dec 3, 2007 9:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll take the one step further

If Capuano gets a mildly ok defensive performance behind him and does a better job in the walk department then he's arguably the team's best pitcher. Shoot he doesn't even have to pitch than what he did last year to be the #2.

by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 3, 2007 6:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

all I remember

is the old joke about the Lone Ranger being surrounded by Indians on all four sides... and when he turned to his compeer and asked, "what are we going to do, Tonto?"

Tonto replied, "what's this "we" sh*t, whiteman?"

* congradulations, Mo, welcome to your new job.

by the Tewk on Dec 3, 2007 9:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not that it makes any difference

but I think Cavazos was released.

by 26thMan on Dec 3, 2007 10:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I was about to point that out.

You could probably just plug Dewon Brazelton into that spot instead.

by Phyrkrakr on Dec 3, 2007 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hilarity at GUB

http://getupbaby.net/?cat=234

a little theatre.

Future Redbirds

by erik on Dec 3, 2007 10:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Capauno

I remember reading that Busch III deadens flyballs somewhat. How does it compare to Miller Park? That 1:1 GD:FB ratio might not seem as scary as it seems.

by maurerdj on Dec 3, 2007 10:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Miller

Is a much greater offensive park than Busch--dont have the data in front of me.

Im with Lboros. Capuano is the type of guy I would like to get but can't see trading with the Brew Crew. He is a legitimate #3 starter in the NL Central. That says something.

Melvin is a very good GM who has made some great trades---I am nervous dealing with him.

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Dec 3, 2007 10:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What makes me gitty...

Is to think that around 41.5 million will be coming off the books after the 2008 season. That is close to half the payroll now. Mo must be gitty as well, or atleast I would hope so.

2/3rd's of the earth is covered by water, the other third is coverd by Jim Edmonds....when he's healthy...

by cardsphan04 on Dec 3, 2007 11:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

giddy

Jake Peavy agreed to an extension. I'm slightly less giddy.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 3, 2007 11:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

C.C Sabathia

Has C.C agreed to an extension? It is like I was prediction, the 2009 FA pitcher crop will be garbage.

Anyone left will be a risky guy to sign. Peavy, C.C, Santana will all be taken care of. Lackey will probably get an extension or go to a team not named STL. I think the Cards will only get a legit #1 or #2 by trading, but they don't have much to trade. I honestly think Anderson is going to have to be traded to get a "good" pitcher. Not a Derek Lowe type guy who will be like 37 and in decline mode. I don't want to see Derek Lowe or John Smoltz. The Cardinals will need a younger legit #1 or #2 type pitcher.

by ICbirdfan on Dec 3, 2007 11:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

CC...

The Indians won't be giving him a 18/20M per year extension, and since they figure to be competing for their division I can't see him getting traded.

CC is going to make it to free agency.

Don't forget about Sheets, Penny, or Burnett.

Some of these guys are going to make it, and the Cards are gonna have the coin.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 3, 2007 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

unimpressed

I was just kind of unimpressed with the FA pitcher list.

I always think Burnett (older than Penny & Sheets, thought he was younger than he is), and Sheets are going to be risky as they are always hurt. Penny is more durable than those two but I thought he just had an elbow problem that knocked him out in the 2006 season??

STL will have $$ but that does not mean they will spend it nor should they if a guy is damaged goods. I think it may be STL's best bet to trade for a pitcher.

by ICbirdfan on Dec 3, 2007 3:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Best Interest...

Considering that we would have to trade Rasmus and Wainwright to get a pitcher anywhere near the quality of the ones I mentioned I have to disagree.

I'd much rather give up the money and a draft pick then give up our best young players and the money.

Hell, we could quite possibly be bad enough that our first rounder would be protected anyway.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 3, 2007 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Another point...

Who is better than the pitchers I listed that would be available through trade?

Hell, how many are better period?

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 3, 2007 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

true

True, the Cards don't have the ammo to make a trade for an "ace" pitcher, unless Rasmus comes into the discussion. I would rather keep Rasmus around.

I don't know it will not be easy to get a FA pitcher. I am not too optimistic, unless the Cardinals actually throw some $$ out there meaning they will have to out bid someone by $5 million or so.

by ICbirdfan on Dec 3, 2007 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Outbid?

I'm interested as to why you think they would have to outbid all other teams by 5M just to get a guy to come here.

My point is, the money will be there to pay the going rate and a couple of these legitimate top o the rotation starters will be available. Which is exactly why they shouldn't be commiting multi-year deals to mediocre players. They've done a pretty good job of that so far, save Pineiro.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 3, 2007 5:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Based

On prior problems STL has had in getting the FA they want, it may take a bit of a higher bid than they want/someone else may make to draw the person in. I think there is some sort of belief that guys want to play in STL because of the good fans. Well yes it is a bonus but for a lot of the players I don't think it is very high on the list of important things.

Just saying it may take a bit more to reel em in! Like Hunter was ready to sign with the Sox until the Angels offered $80 mill opposed to the Sox $75 million.

Generally you get FA by paying more than the "market value", the goal is to not blow away the "market value" like the Cubs did with Alfonso Sorriano.

by ICbirdfan on Dec 3, 2007 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

The "prior problems" they had in reeling in top tier free agents is because they weren't willing to pay the going rate.

I still don't see why they would have to outbid other teams by 5M annually, but I see your point.

If they aren't willing to pony up the money one of these guys will command...they'll be playing somewhere else.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 3, 2007 7:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

5M

Who knows why I threw that figure out there???

I would like to see STL actually reel in that FA talent, instead of reading about how we just missed out.

by ICbirdfan on Dec 3, 2007 9:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The insanity that we felt the need

to fill up a 40-man roster with Izturis before the Winter Meetings drives me nuts.

It's like, we had every reason not to sign him and yet, we did.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 3, 2007 11:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Isn't that speculation?

Has something else come on it on the situation that I'm not aware of?

by saladdays on Dec 3, 2007 1:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No, Izturis has a contract.

That's why JRod was DFAd, so Julius Cesar could be added to the roster.

by Phyrkrakr on Dec 3, 2007 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

JRod

was never going to get a chance in this LH-heavy OF again anyway...

by willievinceterry on Dec 4, 2007 1:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Izturis is being undervalued by VEB members

There is a striking similarity between the hitting records of Ozzie Smith and Cesar Itzuris in their four seasons just before joining the Cardinals:

OPS+ for Shortstop A
82
48
71
62

OPS+ for Shortstop B
88
66
57
60

Both had almost no power but good speed and excellent fielding ability. SS A joined the Cardinals at age 27, SS B at age 28.

If you haven't figured it out already, Ozzie is the first player. Cesar is the second.

I'm not suggesting that Izturis will accomplish what Ozzie did. But Izturis does have the tools to add overall value just a notch below Smith's - with gold glove fielding capability, low strikeouts, good speed, and, yes, solid offensive production for a shortstop.

Izturis has shown signs that when he is healthy, his offensive production can be not much worse than Eckstein's CURRENT capabilities. In 2004 Izturis had a batting average of .288 and an OPS+ of 88. This is a notch below Eckstein's 2007 offensive production: .309 average and 93 OPS+. In 2005, though, Izturis hit .333 in April (102 AB) and .350 in May (117 AB) and his OPS was .782 and .838 in those two months, respectively. That was before he got hurt. He hasn't had a steady position since that year, because he has either been recovering from Tommy John surgery (usually 1.5 years or more for full recovery) or he has been bounced around as a utility infielder.

Cesar's offensive production in 2004 and, before he got injured, in 2005, indicate that with a regular role his offensive capability could easily be every bit as good as Eckstein's is right now. The difference is that Izturis is a much better fielder and he will be only 28 next year, in his prime years, while Eckstein will be 33, in decline. Izturis also costs a fraction of what Eckstein is seeking.

I am surprised that members of this site, who consider themselves very insightful and empirically based in their evaluations have ignored the fact that injuries often mask the talent of players (cf. Chris Carpenter when the Cardinals acquired him) and have ignored the great value that can be added by Izturis defensively if he is managed effectively.

For perspective, here is an excerpt from the Dodgers' official MLB.com site:

"Izturis had the biggest range by a shortstop that I have seen. He usually could throw the runner out from anywhere in his range. Although Izturis didn't have the powerful arm that Rafael Furcal has, Izturis had a more accurate throwing arm than Furcal. To me, accuracy is more important than strength.

"The small young shortstop had the fastest hands that I have seen on a baseball field. Izturis grabbed line drives before I could focus on the play. He fielded ground balls smoothly and quickly. He turned double plays effortlessly....

"In 2004, Izturis committed only 10 errors, earning him the National League Gold Glove. Izturis' spectacular defense made Cora and third baseman Adrian Beltre better. Although many fans overlook the importance of the defense, having great defense enabled the Dodgers to win their first National League West Division title since 1995....

"In 2005, Izturis was bothered by an array of physical ailments. His season ended with a major Tommy John surgery....."

http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071130&content_id=2314791&vkey=news _la&fext=.jsp&c_id=la

Bottom line: It is reasonable for Mozeliak to place a one-year bet on Izturis in hopes that he will signifcantly improve the Cardinals' defense at SS and thereby improve the performance of the entire pitching staff (worst rotation in franchise history in 2007), especially while the Cardinals continue to gear for groundball pitchers. And with Cesar's return to regular play at shortstop and adept management by LaRussa, Izturis could make a solid offensive contribution as well.

by CardsWin on Dec 3, 2007 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting

You don't have to say anything to me, as I am not screaming and yelling about how bad Izturis, Mo, and the Cardinal organization is.

I think he has a chance to contribute defensively.

If you look at this fielding last year it was not bad. Chicago is know as playing like a minor league field the infield is so bad. Izturis made all but 1 of his errors last year playing SS at Wrigley Field. He goes to Pitt and is all of a sudden on pace to make 7 errors in 690 chances. STL is seen as a much better playing surface so there is not reason to say that Izturis will be bad defensively.

by ICbirdfan on Dec 3, 2007 5:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If Izturis returns to pre-injury form, Mo wins

I didn't realize Izturis made only one error in Pittsburgh.

He had only 3 strikeouts in Pittsburgh, too, in 123 AB.

But Itzuris is a gamble, of course, even if he was the best bet in this weak free agent market. His hitting will have to return to 2004 form, or the first two months of 2005, for him to be a balanced player. In 2004, before Izturis was hindered by injuries, his OPS vs. RHP was a respectable .725 (.767 was the median for NL SS's), but just .671 vs. LHP.

In 2007 with the Pirates Izturis hit for a .276 avg but only a .643 OPS. Compared with all NL starting shortstops that OPS was better only than Omar Vizquel, at .621, though not much worse than Rafael Furcal, at .687. Still, unless Izturis learns to hit righthanded, he should platoon with Brendan Ryan, who had an OPS vs. LHP of .863.

Miles, by the way, had an OPS of .676 last year. Out of 109 players in the NL with at least 400 AB in 2007, Miles ranked #101.

by CardsWin on Dec 3, 2007 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The game has evolved

The importance of speed has gone down since Ozzie. The importance of power has gone up.

Cardinal fan in War Eagle land

by Mr Redbird on Dec 3, 2007 7:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Speed vs. power at SS.

Good point. Especially with LaRussa managing. Let's hope Edmonds and Rolen and Duncan will rebound, and Ankiel and Pujols will continue to hit for average and power, to give the Cards all the power they need. With very good defense again and with an excellent bullpen, five power hitters should be enough to make the Cardinals contenders in the weak NL Central, so long as the pitching rotation gets back on track. Admittedly, that's a lot of "ifs"!

by CardsWin on Dec 3, 2007 8:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

no more than 2 of 3

of edmonds, rolen, and duncan will be on the team next year.

by willievinceterry on Dec 4, 2007 1:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Speed vs. power at SS.

by CardsWin on Dec 3, 2007 8:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wow, great analysis

I had no idea that Izturis had that kind of history. This may be another example of how using the wrong stats might cause you to come to the wrong conclusion about a player...

It's easier not to make the mistake than to make the mistake and try to fix it. -Mo

by SleepyCA on Dec 3, 2007 10:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Flawed analysis, IMHO...

Ozzie took a lot of walks. Izturis doesn't. When Ozzie started hitting for average, he had quite a respectable OBP, since he took walks. Even if Izturis were to his .288, he's still have a fairly low OBP, since he doesn't walk.

Ozzie actually was fast and stole a lot of bases. Izturis isn't fast. He had one year with 25 SB, 2004, his career year. I think Ozzie averaged that in the years before getting traded.

Ozzie was always great defensively. Izturis had one good year out of 6.

by DiscoJer on Dec 3, 2007 11:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

as already pointed out

stolen bases are irrelevant with today's offensive levels. OPS+ measures overall offensive production so a better walk rate doesn't matter if they have the same OPS+ levels. No matter how different you slice it, it's still the same pie.

The point of the original analysis was to point out that people are freaking out over Cesar's anemic hitting while regarding ozzie as god even though they are similar offensively.

"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Dec 3, 2007 11:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Carlos Quentin

If all Quentin cost was a minor league first baseman, shouldn't we have considered him? Sigh.

http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports_hardball/2007/12/sox-acquire-que.html

by sdrone on Dec 3, 2007 2:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

humm

I don't know, it seems like the Cardinals have about 45 outfielders right now.

by ICbirdfan on Dec 3, 2007 2:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

carter is

a darn fine prospect, better then our best 1b prospect mark hamilton.

Future Redbirds

by erik on Dec 3, 2007 3:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

To true.

We need to trade some outfielders away not trade for more...

The Red Blazer

by Red Blazer on Dec 3, 2007 3:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

yeah...sort of...

but don't we need some RIGHT HANDED outfielders in this mix? Duncan, Edwards, Ankiel...would be nice to pick up a good right handed OF to take Juans spot.

by Timbo02 on Dec 3, 2007 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How about Bay?

He has a nice line for his career averages... CAREER AVERAGES (per 162 games played) Year TM AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS AVG Career 580 96 163 34 4 31 103 83 157 11 3 .375 .515 .890 .281

The Red Blazer

by Red Blazer on Dec 3, 2007 7:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

bay

i agree, he's the only pirate that we might be able to get and might be able to help us. reyes might have to be the primary piece, but that's ok.

by sportsman on Dec 3, 2007 11:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cappy

Provided that he's healthy, Capuano perfectly fits the buy-low, sell-high model that we need to be geniuses at.

The vastly over-rated so-called genuises running the front offices of MLB are way to quick to throw millions at the latest so-called phenom (good for you Gary Matthews Jr). Now, these same whiz GMs also pay the scrap guys (talkin about you Kip) pretty well too but they also turn their back pretty quickly when someone hits the skids in the rarefied air of mlb pitching skill

sell-high (Kent Bottenfield)

buy-low (Chris Capuano)

now that I think about it, AR kinda fits that buy-low model too (except he hasn't had the success of Cappy)

by Hinkster on Dec 3, 2007 4:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

what would you call

selling Rolen at this point in his career?

by DanUpBaby on Dec 3, 2007 8:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

thanks for asking but

that really is the $64k question the answer to which I suppose depends on who picks up the bulk of the tab

I won't repeat the condundrum that is Rolen as his case has been well argued

I will say that, to me, Rolen is like a relatively low mileage, beautiful Mercedes in your driveway that just won't run right any more no matter what you do. As frustrated as you are, you can't quite forget those glorious days of not so long ago when you cruised the freeway at 95mph with the wind in your hair.

Some days you laugh at your neighbor's low ball offer and other days you think you just might cut your losses.

Murphy's Law waits in the wings....ready to laugh, regardless of your choice

by Hinkster on Dec 3, 2007 8:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rosenthal: any basis for this or is he rumor

mongering? Pedro Feliz as a replacement for Rolen? Ugh.

"Ken Rosenthal
"FOXSports.com, Updated 2 hours ago
"NASHVILLE, Tn....

"Feliz to St. Louis?

"Free-agent third baseman Pedro Feliz is one option for the Cardinals if they trade Scott Rolen. Feliz and Rolen are both represented by Sam and Seth Levinson, and the Cardinals will need to work with the agents to persuade Rolen to waive his no-trade clause. Feliz and shortstop Cesar Izturis, however, would give the Cardinals sub-par offense on the left side of the infield.

"Rather than sign Feliz, who also is drawing interest from other clubs, the Cardinals also could trade for a third baseman such as the Orioles' Miguel Tejada or Rangers' Hank Blalock. The Rangers are expected to be quiet at the meetings, but Blalock could become an attractive option once Tejada and Miguel Cabrera are moved."

The link: http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7521692?MSNHPHMA

I'd just as soon this player's shadow never darkened the door of the Cards' clubhouse for sabermetric AND traditional reasons.

Ugh again.

by kwhiteside on Dec 3, 2007 5:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

awesome fielder

.288 OBP. Ugh indeed.

Future Redbirds

by erik on Dec 3, 2007 6:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So is the plan

to make the Cardinals the WORST offensive team in baseball with Feliz, Kennedy, Molina & Izturis and piss off Pujols because he won't have any protection hitting behind him so that he is going to be the next one to demand a trade?

Why in the hell do the Cardinals pay these stat guys like Luhnow and his friends when it's obvious they not looking at some of these guys offensive stats.

by KYCards on Dec 3, 2007 7:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OK, KY, chill.

It's a rumor reported in the press. Right now that's all it is.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 3, 2007 11:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lunhow...

He's in charge of player development.

The "old guard" makes all the major league roster decisions.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 4, 2007 12:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ot: larry's acumen

random semi-prediction from larry that i came across from a google cache search:

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/comments/2006/11/2/92320/8411/72#72
--- basically that edmonds would be batting 240 with 6 hr

his stats of june 15, 2007: 238 w/ 7 hr
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/y2007/gd.html?2007_06_15_slnmlb_oakmlb_1

you might want to avoid that gameday link. it's a pretty touchy subject for many of you.

all this is simply to say thanks to larry for the work he puts into sharing his considerable knowledge with us. thanks, larry.

by johnstonburg on Dec 3, 2007 6:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Opinions?...

On the hiring of John Abbamondi as the new Assistant GM?... Anyone know much about him?

by Timbo02 on Dec 3, 2007 6:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

no to fleix or blalock

we could sign mike lamb and get by without trading or a .288 obp.also mlb trade rumors said the cards are still trying to get cap for rolen and others depending on how much money the cards eat..

by cm1000 on Dec 3, 2007 6:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

other brewer SPs

Just a question regarding a down year for all milwaukee pitchers due to their pathetic infield D. I saw houstoncardinal or somebody thought that Cappy's down year could be attributed to the bad D by looking at his peripherals but what about the other Brewer pitchers, did they experience down years with better peripherals?

mlbtraderumors says this trade is heating up. We should have somethign in place at 3rd before dealing Rolen. hopefully we could get bill hall from the brew crew. why don't they just move Hall to third and Braun to the OF and put Cappy to use elsewhere?

I cannot stand being a fanatical for an egregiously average team. I am giving a two year grace period before we break up.

by stlknows on Dec 3, 2007 8:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Mr. Mo

Just be patient buddy. The angels are going to be looking for a 3B when the deal for M.Cab falls through.

Then you can deal Rolen to the angels for a starting pitcher and ship Anthony Reyes to the dbacks for Chad Tracy.

by El Hombre on Dec 3, 2007 9:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

rolen and cash

for santana and a prospect would be cool I still think we could sign mike lamb and get by ok

by cm1000 on Dec 3, 2007 10:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

please

that wouldn't happen in a million years. look at what the twins are asking the yankees and red sox for.

by willievinceterry on Dec 4, 2007 1:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Josh Kinney

Larry, was the exclusion of josh kinney purposeful or accidental? Given that he had TJ surgery in mid-March, I would have thought he'd be ready to go near the start of the season.

by DCGreg on Dec 3, 2007 10:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Mulder's Return

<http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071203&content_id=2316331&vkey=news_stl&fext=.jsp&c_id=stl>

Second to last bullet point. First time I heard May as a possible return...up to now, it's all been "Opening Day"...

"Dude, we're running out of stadium" - said on the way to our seats in Section 428.

by bukowski on Dec 3, 2007 10:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

What about this Rolen to the Giants rumor?

does this play into LB's suggestion back in September about acquiring a couple of young pitchers from the Giants? Lowry and Sanchez or Correia? The Giants certainly need hitting and do have some young pitching to spare.

I've certainly become a believer that Rolen will be moved and the prospect of shipping him to Milwaukee or SF is more than a little surprising to me -- and it presents an opportunity for us.

by chuckb on Dec 3, 2007 11:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

It's pretty clear that Rolen will be playing elsewhere nest year.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 4, 2007 12:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Stark says

Mo is reluctant to trade Rolen within the division. If it's a favorable trade for us (the latest had Cappy, a "top prospect" and the Brew eating 33 mil) then I don't think it should matter where he goes, if it's going to be in the NL. A plus trade is a plus trade. I doubt Rolen playing us 8 more times negates a plus trade value. This is all, of course, subject to whomever SF/LA is willing to drop on us if they're officially out of the Cabrera sweepstakes. At this point, we need to jump on a good deal if we want to be able to move on with someone other than Pedro F. Feliz playing 3rd.

by wyld stallyns on Dec 4, 2007 4:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs