Bill James Bullish on Braden Looper

by lightbulb on Dec 26, 2007 5:41 PM EST Comment 9 comments

I was clicking around on the Cards' fangraphs page to see Bill James' 2008 projections, and Braden Looper's caught my eye.

For reference, Looper in 2007 (IP / ERA / WHIP / K/BB ratio / K/9 ratio):
175/4.94/1.34/1.71/4.47

Bill James Projection fo Braden Looper 2008 (IP / ERA / WHIP / K/BB ratio / K/9 ratio): 183/3.98/1.36/1.75/5.07

For reference, here are the 2008 projections from ZIPS and CHONE (this is VEB after all...no way one data point would suffice!).

Stats - IP /ERA /WHIP/K_BB/K_9
James - 183/3.98/1.36/1.75/5.07
Chone - 136/4.30/1.40/1.64/4.76
Zips - 160/4.84/1.42/1.54/4.67

So Bill James is the optimist in the group, projecting Looper to be a full run better than last year. Zips is most pessimisitc, while Chone is right in the middle except on innings pitched.

So..why is Mr. James so optimistic? No doubt that Looper's sinker helped out his GB/FB ratio in 2007, and I suppose that must be playing into the 2008 calculation. But still, a full run lower ERA than 2007? And a healthy increase in the K/9 ratio (13%)? I find it hard to believe that James's projection would entertain intagibles such as "experience as a starter", but who knows.

The Chone and Zips projections seem a little more plausible to me, but hey, I'll happily take James's suggestions. Any thoughts as to why Bill James sees Braden Looper as having such a solid 2008?

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Just guessing

I wonder how much his lack of history as a starter make it hard to asesss his future performance in these projections. Don't they often use some of the last few years of performance? And if they do, I'd guess they lack of starting history past last year would account for the wide discrepancy in these projections.

by FunkeeC on Dec 26, 2007 5:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Attributing Looper's success

to an increased GB/FR ratio is a fallacy. His GB% actually got worse as the year progressed. In his last 9 starts, where his ERA was 4.08, he actually got 55 ground ball outs and 76 air outs. His groundball % last year was 42.2% -- the lowest of his career.

As one who charted all of Looper's starts last year, I see little reason for optimism this year. His K%, as you point out, is poor -- less than 5 per 9 innings. His GB% fell and, it seems, he actually had more success via fly balls last year than ground balls as the fly balls, when they stayed in the park, are less likely to find holes.

Don't get me wrong, I believe he can be fine as a 4th or 5th starter but I tend to think that the ZIPS projections are more likely to be correct than Bill James' are.

by chuckb on Dec 26, 2007 6:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I still go

with Orel Hershiser, who said of the Loop... "he has a repeatable delivery."
Looper will never be consistently awesome, but his body is a starter's body... and his mechanics are injury-avoiding.

by the Tewk on Dec 26, 2007 7:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

He very well may

have a repeatable delivery. But when the ball doesn't go where it's supposed to, or doesn't get there fast enough, or the curve is flat - a repeatable delivery just means you can repeatedly throw shitty pitches. Not saying Loop is bad. I don't think he's going to come close to James numbers - defense, lack of run support, etc will all contribute to him having the same season as last year.

"Dude, we're running out of stadium" - said on the way to our seats in Section 428.

by bukowski on Dec 27, 2007 10:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Which one of these projections factor in

the massive shoulder injury he will have in May?

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 26, 2007 9:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well...

When do your's come out?

"You're either rebuilding for something special, or you're on the verge of something special. To be in between is foolish." Billy Beane

by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 26, 2007 11:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Looper is a sleeper for 2008.

"Why does he keep saying that?"

by Red Blazer on Dec 26, 2007 10:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

James' projections are usually most optimistic

Just throwin that out there.

Cheeseburger in paradise.

by joker24 on Dec 27, 2007 3:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

What's the methodology?

I notice that too and I don't get where the numbers are coming from in some cases.

Case in point - Barry Zito. He's putting most of his numbers at levels he has not reached in about 3 years. I think there must be some type of heavy weighting on performance from 3 years ago or even more.

Seem like his system takes a sells short many pitchers that have been putting up the elite numbers, and then cuts guys who have been struggling lately some breaks.

Curious if anyone out there has a cliffs notes version as to what James does? I had one of his books years ago, but forget the math he uses.

by Merry CRasmus on Dec 28, 2007 6:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs