December 23rd Hot Stove

by aet15 on Dec 23, 2007 10:33 AM EST

We'll most likely see not much happen today, but according to MLB Trade Rumors, Prior is going to make his decision pretty soon.

Also, it seems the Bedard is no longer being shopped by the O's like he was before. I'd still like to see us make a run at Josh Towers, but I doubt it will happen.

Oh well, hot stove away!

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Everyone seems to think that Prior

will go to San Diego. I know a lot of folks don't like him, and I know his making it back from surgery is a big if, but youth is in his favor. I wish him well, even though he was a Cub, and even if he signs with the Padres instead of us. I don't like to see anyone's career end because of injury.

by jillsinmo on Dec 23, 2007 10:22 AM EST reply actions

the sword of Damocles

please noooooo; not Prior

by the Tewk on Dec 23, 2007 12:33 PM EST up reply actions

someone over

at gaslamp gave me my sig there:

Mark Prior is...

Nessie, Bigfoot, Champ, Sasquatch, a Yeti, a Unicorn and a Chupacabra that lives in Atlantis.
If you sign him you will hear rumors about him existing, get reports of people who claim to have witnessed him in "simulated games" or "towel drills", and you will always be told that he's "making progress" and "is close to joining the rotation". You will never see him though, because Mark Prior is an urban legend.

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Fri Dec 21, 2007 at 09:59:15 AM CST
[ Reply to This ]

"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Dec 23, 2007 6:41 PM EST up reply actions

Hilarious

That is some great stuff right there. Good find!

by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 24, 2007 3:51 AM EST up reply actions

hmmmm...

Im trying to think of something to like about Mark Prior....oh well, I give up.

Trade for Sean Rodriguez! (But please dont call him S-Rod!)

by cardschinmusic on Dec 24, 2007 4:40 AM EST up reply actions

Oh, and as far as Bedard goes,

I think the O's should hang on to him until the first name pitcher on a contender goes down in 2008. They should be able to empty someone's farm system if they do that. Think Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Angels....they still have a boatload of talent in their system.

by jillsinmo on Dec 23, 2007 10:25 AM EST reply actions

the Orioles have the advantage

of KNOWING they are going no-where in '08; whereas the Cardinals are still in that 'maybe if' category... a deal here, a signing there. {We're in the NL Central, remember)

If I was a realistic Baltimore fan, I would want to keep Bedard for now, just like you said.

However, the term "realistic fan" may be an oxymoron.

by the Tewk on Dec 23, 2007 12:40 PM EST up reply actions

Can't keep using the 'we are in the NL Central'

argument. Teams can't use that in the NL West anymore. The NL Central has gotten better for 2008. Cubs improved in the OF, Astros improved their lineup, the Pirates are a year older and more experienced (Adam LaRoche can't start that bad again), the Reds sured up their bullpen.

Everyone else got better in the NL Central. It'll take 90 wins, atleast, to win the Central this year and the Cardinals won't sniff 20 games of 90.

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 23, 2007 1:05 PM EST up reply actions

'Tis true.

The other NL Central teams have made some moves to improve their teams. The Reds scare the beejeebus out of me-I really think of them as the dark horse to fight for the top of the division along with the Cubs. But wait. The Brewers youngsters have another year under their belt; they are not as likey to collapse as they did this past season. Even with Ned Yost. The Astros have put together a formidable offense, but they have even less pitching than the Cardinals do, so I can't really see them improving enough to get to the top. The Pirates and Cards appear to be treading water. It's early on; I'm sure some moves are going to be made to improve the team. At least that's my hope....

by jillsinmo on Dec 23, 2007 1:18 PM EST up reply actions

90?

I'm not so sure. I was thinking somewhere around 87 wins might take the division.

"You're either rebuilding for something special, or you're on the verge of something special. To be in between is foolish." Billy Beane

by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 23, 2007 5:28 PM EST up reply actions

the brewers are a wild card

I wouldn't be surprised to see them win 79, or 95, depending on the personnel decisions that Yost makes.

Christmas lights are an extremely efficient method for converting Christmas Spirit into heat. -anon

by SleepyCA on Dec 23, 2007 6:52 PM EST up reply actions

87 is believable

but even then, the Cardinals aren't getting within 15 games of 87 wins.

I actually believe the Cardinals pitching won't be nearly as bad as last year.

On the other hand, the offense will be woefully worse than it was in 2007. Pujols may break Bonds record for single season walks.

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 23, 2007 7:25 PM EST up reply actions

let me understand

why the offense will be worse?
Because Jimbo and Eck are gone??
Or is it the missing Miles and Taguchi??
Encarnacion?

by the Tewk on Dec 23, 2007 10:26 PM EST up reply actions

we did lose

our best-hitting pitcher, but he had a .469 babip, so he was due to regress anyway...

Christmas lights are an extremely efficient method for converting Christmas Spirit into heat. -anon

by SleepyCA on Dec 23, 2007 10:37 PM EST up reply actions

Why will it be better?

Because Skip's ridiculously high BABIP will stay that way?
Molina will have another career year?
Rick Ankiel won't melt under pressure?
Chris Duncan will figure out how to hit lefties?
Scott Rolen's shoulder is healed?

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 23, 2007 11:02 PM EST up reply actions

because

we HAVE lost parts and have done NOTHING to replace them.

Do you seriously think Izturis will be better than Eckstein? Contrary to popular belief, Eckstein was a much better hitter than him.

I mean, there are many of place to get started, but a perfect example is that we absolutely don't have a lead-off hitter.

Sure, it could put up better numbers this year, but we might as well be playing roulette.

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on Dec 23, 2007 11:07 PM EST up reply actions

Why wouldn't it be worse?

Eck had his faults on defense, but he was a decent hitter. Izturis is as bad a hitter as there has ever been in baseball. He alone makes the Cardinals probably 3-4 games worse, especially if Tony has him lead off.

Taguchi was actually decent against lefties, one of the teams top hitters. Will he be replaced by Skippy?

All the OFers have question marks. Can Duncan stay healthy an entire season? What will Ankiel do? Can Ludwick hit like last year. None of those guys have had a lot of major league playing time, so they are huge question marks.

The offense could be better. But the only major change, going from Eck to Izutris is a major negative.

by DiscoJer on Dec 23, 2007 11:49 PM EST up reply actions

So taguchi

ops'd .760 against lefties. It's not going to be that hard to replace (or absorb the loss of) his production, and his defense in center field was nothing special. Will skip put up those kinds of numbers against lefties? Maybe not, but he had a significant (155 pt) reverse platoon split in memphis in '06, and (29 points) in STL in '07. He won't hit .330 next season, but he'll likely have a .750 OPS and play better defense than either Taguchi or Edmonds. Ankiel has also shown a reverse platoon split (44 pts in AAA, '07, and a ridiculous sample-size driven 439 pt MLB split), and is right now scheduled to be the starting CF.

Regarding "major change", I've touched on this a bit already but in CF it's going from Edmond's .728 OPS and taguchi's .718 (.635 as CF) to either Ankiel or Schumaker. I guarantee Ankiel will do better than .728, and Skip has always had a very high babip, at least since milb-splits has recorded it- he'll regress some, but it's no certainty that his babip will fall to league average. He's fast and rarely pops the ball up. The Barton wild card may or may not ever play, but he'll likely be close to as good as Taguchi was in CF, offensively, and a whole lot better defensively.

Major change in RF is that we'll have a full season of Ludwick (.818 overall, .878 after 31 May), spelled by Spezio and others. No "month of Preston Wilson" (.578 OPS) or Juan Encarnacion (.768 overall). One big advantage (knock on wood) with Ludwick that is not captured by OPS is that he very rarely hits into DP's- in 32 more PA's than Encarnacion, he hit into 10 fewer DP's (IE only one overall). I can't find double-situational splits for "men on 1st + less than 2 outs" but ludwick had men on 1st in 119 of his 339 PA's, so it's safe to say he had plenty of chances to fail and didn't.

If Kennedy (.572 OPS) is as bad this year as he was last year, he'll be gone by May (if he even breaks camp with the team). I don't think Mo is going to give that spot away to save face like WJ did. Ryan or Hoffpaur or D'J are Mo's new boys and he has nothing to gain from giving AB's to kennedy, and the difference between {any of these 3, plus iz2, divided by 2} and {kennedy + eckstein, divided by 2} offensively will be quite positive, with positive defensive gain as well. Esp with TLR's platooning skills and ryan's apparent ability to kill lefties.

Molina's "career year" was "molina playing just a tad better than he did in his 21yo rookie season, and not quite as good as his 2006-2007 peripherals said he should play". Actually, not quite as good as he should play, given his low K rate and his high LD%. Don't forget how young he is, and the fact that he was hurt very badly in 2007; if he is worse in 2008 than he was in 2007, I will be shocked.

And albert had the worst year of his career in '07. Will he come back strong in '08? And hardcore jokes about Rolen's shoulder, but will he really be as bad as he was last year? And if he is, don't you think we'll find a way to replace him, even if it is just with Uncle Rico? It isn't hard to find a 3B who can hit better than .729.

Anyway, I think our offense in '08 will be fine. It's all about the pitching, imho, and if you want to make gloom and doom prognostications, just imagine AW getting hurt or underperforming...

Christmas lights are an extremely efficient method for converting Christmas Spirit into heat. -anon

by SleepyCA on Dec 24, 2007 3:15 AM EST up reply actions

yeah, what HE said

I want to hire sleepy as my lawyer.

by the Tewk on Dec 24, 2007 12:11 PM EST up reply actions

re: "all about pitching"

Not really. Per zips hitting projections if the cardinals pitch better than the best NL team last year they still wouldn't be a 90 win team.

"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Dec 24, 2007 5:27 PM EST up reply actions

I second that

What an awesome post!!!!!!!
THAT is why I come to VEB!!!!!!

by Calhoun on Dec 24, 2007 11:29 PM EST up reply actions

I agree

that the NL central has improved..and it will take 90 or more wins next year in all probably to win it; but for the Cardinal to assure themselves to be strong contenders, They would have to take the Houston route and I think that is the wrong way to go. Especially with the farm system about to reap some rewards. The Cubs look strong but their strength is not in young players, I think they will start a decline after next year and end up with payroll problems due to some very bad signings.

I see that the Reds and Brewers could most likely be the teams to beat after next year and I would like to see the Cards adopt a plan to meet that, even if it means giving up next year. What have you gained if you wipe out your prospects to go after the Cubs and Brewers next year and then lose by 2 games because of a crucial injury or some high price veteran didn't play up to snuff.(still stuck with his contract)

I like the route the Diamondback, Rockies, and Indians have gone: develop a winner and then you can compete for a few years without payroll getting out of hand. Look at what the Yankees, (and the Dodgers and Giants for that matter) have spent and what has it gained them; most of October off.

by ridgesee on Dec 23, 2007 3:06 PM EST reply actions

Taguchi

Seems Taguchi signed with Phils (per rotoworld banner). As much as it was the right choice, I sure am gonna miss the guy.

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on Dec 23, 2007 4:26 PM EST reply actions

Good for him

On with a contender, to boot. Gonna really miss him. I'll have to go to a Phillies game to cheer him on.

Happy he's not a Cub, too. Too classy for that. It's like Jessica Alba dating Dane Cook or something.

Rasmus or bust.

by Zoop on Dec 23, 2007 5:50 PM EST up reply actions

Confirmed by

ESPN(but not by Chris Mortensen).

"It's always about the money. Anyone who says it's not is lying."- Gene Simmons

by cardsrul on Dec 23, 2007 9:16 PM EST up reply actions

Dane Cook

Dane Cook= (insert sound of me vomiting and bashing my head against the table very, very hard all at the same time)

The wife made me watch one of his standup shows once...It was the longest week of my life, and sadly it only took about 45 minutes.

by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 24, 2007 3:54 AM EST up reply actions

And when...

... he's gonna homer against Wagner, he'll become Philadelphia official hero.

GO CARDS!!

by SuperSeve on Dec 24, 2007 4:19 AM EST up reply actions

+1 on all of the above

by cardsgirl95 on Dec 24, 2007 8:46 AM EST up reply actions

Here's the stltoday bit on it ...

link

my web log

by matty fred on Dec 24, 2007 12:26 PM EST up reply actions

More on the Orioles

Peter Angelos - what a strange owner. What is his game plan? Why does he own a baseball team? Or does he still? What have Baltimorians had to cheer for (other than Cal and a beautiful stadium) for the last twenty years? Other than the D-Rays, is there a more hopeless franchise to root for?

by Hinkster on Dec 23, 2007 5:31 PM EST reply actions

Well, they are the Browns...

Maybe not in name, but in lineage. Almost as hapless as the Cubbies...

by DiscoJer on Dec 23, 2007 6:51 PM EST up reply actions

Angelos

I think at one point he saw the success George was having up in the Bronx and thought "Hmm, maybe I'll do that too!" He then proceeded to gut the farm system of all prospects and competent instructors and throw wads of dough at Albert Belle and Co., which was essentially lighting that money on fire. After that the franchise seemed to fall to hell, and Angelos's head moved a little further up his intestinal tract. But on a lighter note, they have a kickass stadium (which I got to go to once) and they also have crab cakes.

by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 24, 2007 3:58 AM EST up reply actions

still could

be some moves made with reyes thompson. they could bring in another right handed bat for the outfield and sign more pitching dont think they will do much but its only december..

by cm1000 on Dec 24, 2007 10:15 AM EST reply actions

Optimism

I actually share some of SleepyCa's optimism about the offense. A whole lot of things would have to go right but it's quite possible we'll score considerably more runs next year. Aside from general health the key is probably Ankiel. He is the one guy for whom the projections could be way off in either direction. His production in his first healthy year as an outfielder was truly incrdible and he has the physical skills to improve on it. A .280 average with 35 homers and a few more walks would do a lot for the offense. Obviously there's a chance that his emotional fragility could sabotage his career again but, if it doesn't, I predict minor stardom for him. I expect Kennedy to come back or be replaced. I think that Yadier's performance last year is what we can expect of him in his prime. If he, Rolen and Duncan are healthy all season. I also think there's a chance that Skip and Barton can be an effective leadoff platoon. It's a lot to hope for but all of it is possible. The defense should also improve over last year but probably not enough to make that pitching staff look much better. We've certainly got to look at this as a transition year but it might not be all that bad.

by easy on Dec 25, 2007 12:02 PM EST reply actions