the Kennedy 'pass'

by the Tewk on Dec 2, 2007 5:04 PM EST Comment 19 comments

I know that second base seems to be the black hole of fan interest/attention -- and in Cardinals' management philosophy, the step-child player position...(low budget priority)
but in scouring recent blog comments I am somewhat surprised that Adam Kennedy is getting such a pass on criticism.
Was it just me???... or was Kennedy not indeed the second biggest flop of '07 (losing out only to the unfathomably bad Kip Wells) ?
I have been seeing very little talk (or concern) about the prospect of going into '08 with AK as our second baseman. To quote Bob Dole, "where's the outrage."
Especially, I must add, given the all-to-ready dissing of Aaron Miles.
I'm NOT lobbying for Miles to become the starting 2B, I'd just puzzled why there is so much concensus that Miles should "go" as our backup MI, whereas little is said about the atrocious Adam Kennedy.

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Theory

I think the management believes that part of the fact that he was a complete black hole was that he was injured. Otherwise we'd hear more about getting another person to play there. I also think that this part of the reason they signed Cesar, as insurance. Izturis or Ryan can both play second base or shortstop, so it affords us a little room to mix and match in the middle infield. Personally, it wouldn't really surprise me to see Ryan and Izturis getting a lot of the playing time up the middle this year.

by mojowo11 on Dec 2, 2007 4:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Injury

I have to agree with the injury theory. I think that if he has a year in line w/ his career this year than this signing doesn't look like a total cash bonfire type move.

Of course, if Kennedy is useless than I bet he'll get a Juan-type bomb of VEB wrath dropped on him.

by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 2, 2007 5:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nothing can be done about it

Kennedy's signed for two more seasons already and has zero trade value, so we're stuck with him. He looked pretty good on the field to me last season. Either his bat will come back with health or it won't.

Plus, we've got a decent-looking batter close to the majors in Hoffpauir. We've got personnel options at second, but not so at short, so short deserves more scrutiny. And the rotation, of course.

by liam on Dec 2, 2007 5:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

to clarify

I don't dislike the guy. And I certainly didn't mean that I want, or would enjoy, a barrage of persona-non-grata bandwagoning against him (or anyone else).
In fact, I guess my point was... precisely to avoid such a thing by, you know, cutting AK NOW.
Injuries or not, he looked befuddled and confused at the plate most of the year (especially showing no interest or ability to do what most hitters do to re-gain their form, namely, hit to the opposite field.)
And if we can, in effect CUT, a player of Eckstein's production and quality... why the slow trigger on giving Adam a Rand-McNally map?

by the Tewk on Dec 2, 2007 5:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well

If we cut him, we still pay him. So what's the point? I'd rather just see if he's going to be worth a damn in spring training. If he returns to his usual self (2001-2006), we can expect an OPS+ of around 90, maybe as low as 75 or as high as 100 or more -- his best year was 110.

I'll consider Kennedy "back" if he can hit .270/.335/.385 -- in that case, he's probably going to be better than Izturis with the bat, in any case.

by mojowo11 on Dec 2, 2007 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the difference

between letting Eckstein go and "cutting" Kennedy is that we could let Eck go and not owe him any money. The Cards are in for $7.5 - $8 M that we'll get nothing for by releasing Kennedy. Since it's guaranteed money, we may as well see if we can recoup any of it.

by chuckb on Dec 2, 2007 5:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the Tewk

Well some VEB people are not very smart and think it is fun to bash Aaron Miles for being a full time player who played probably above his ability in 2007 and did anything to help the team, AKA making a few pitching apperances. I doubt some of the "super star" players on the team would take the mound in a blowout, yet Miles took the ball and did not complain.

See I say the VEB people who bash Miles are morons because they are too stupid to realize Miles does not see very much of the field if, Kennedy avoids having a .292 OBP, Eck gets hurt and can't play consistently, Rolen has a healthy shoulder and Speiz stays off the drugs.

Miles was told after the 2006 season he was not going to have a shot at being a starter, and he may have been able to go play on another team, make more $$ and maybe have a shot to start. He chose to make $1 million bucks and stay in STL as a back up. He said he like the team and was more than happy to be a back up. It is not his fault everyone else fell apart around him. I wish AK had a season like Aaron Miles, and something has me scared about AK ever being that good again. I just have a bad feeling about what I saw out of him last year, there was more to it than him being injured.

So you are correct about the fact many VEB people based Miles for no good reason. I guess it was easy to pick on a career back up guy making $1 million bucks. I was one who said Miles did about everything you hoped he would.

by ICbirdfan on Dec 2, 2007 7:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I wish

that everyone would stop perpetrating the myth that Aaron Miles is getting "bashed" because he was forced into full-time action. He's getting "bashed" (I prefer critiqued) because he's not a very good baseball player. He received the the same number of at bats in 2007 as he did in 2006. It had nothing to do with the amount of playing time and everything to do with his quality of play. He can't play defense at SS, he's merely adequate at 2B, he's an anemic offensive option and he doesn't have any baserunning speed to speak of.

The moment he's more than league minimum, he's not worth it. He is, at best, a replacement level player and you shouldn't pay more than league minimum for those caliber players.

by azruavatar on Dec 2, 2007 7:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

STL MI

No one in the STL middle infield is good.

Miles
Ryan
Kennedy
Izturis
Barden
Hoffpauir

I would say that is a list of maybe average to below average players.

I think people should have piled on Kennedy more for how awful he was. I heard people say that the Cards have paid him aka "sunk cost" so they might as well keep him around, WRONG! If he sucks cut him and clear roster space for someone who can play. Have people not learned from how the DBacks handled Russ Ortiz. You don't keep Kennedy around since according to a lot of people Hoffpauir is ready to play second and Ryan or Izturis can play 2B as well.

I think Kennedy did get a pass this year. He did not get bashed nearly as much as Miles and Kennedy was absolutely awful.

I just don't see the point of bashing guys the way people bashed Miles. Hell there were a lot of awful players on STL last year.

by ICbirdfan on Dec 2, 2007 9:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Batting Runs According to Baseball Ref.

Kennedy, in by far the worst year he's ever had, clocked in at -20 batting runs. Miles, in what was a superb year for him, checked in at -14. If Kennedy has what approaches a normal year for him this year, his contribution shits on Miles's.

If the knee problem was the cause of Kennedy's badness, then he'll be a better player than Miles. If the knee wasn't the problem, then believe you me Kennedy will get piled on plenty. But most VEB posters are rational and are willing to give a guy who had season ending surgery the benefit of the doubt, at least more quickly than a guy who had a career year and still cost the Cardinals 14 runs offensively

by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 2, 2007 9:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I won't argue that Kennedy didn't get a pass

he probably did get one to a degree but there are two reasons for that: a) the injury, which has already been mentioned and b) the concept of regression to the mean.

When we look at Kennedy, his year was very much out of line with the previous seasons. PECOTA had him pegged (prior to this past season) to be right at average with the bat for 2007-2011. Unless he's entered a very precipitous decline phase, which is possible, last year was probably more a result of bad luck and injury. Meaning he's a reasonable bet to bounce back. If he can be average with the bat, he's typically been above average with the glove making him a slightly above average player. He's only going to make 3.5M next year so he's signed to a very reasonable club friendly contract. He's not a sunk cost yet.

If Kennedy can't bounce back at all, then the Cardinals should perhaps consider internal options but it's not unlikely that he'll come back to be an above average 2B again. So comparing the seasons that Miles and Kennedy had in 2007 makes Kennedy look pretty bad but he's still more likely to be a better player moving forward.

by azruavatar on Dec 2, 2007 10:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Replacement Level

The issue is in the term "Replacement Level." I'm not a stat genius, so this def. isn't textbook, but essentially the term means freely available talent at league minimum cost. Now, Miles isn't quite replacement level bad, but he isn't far off either. I don't think you really understand how bad he is. It doesn't make him a bad guy, in fact he seems a wonderful human being, but that doesn't change the fact that he isn't any good at what he's paid 1 million dollars to do, and that is be good at baseball.

The guy was the worst non-catcher position player on the team last year. I consider both Hoffpauir and Ryan to be better players offensively and defensively. Considering the fact that Eck and Kennedy were forced to miss a bunch of time, your reserve MIF becomes the starter. It makes no sense to make the worst player on your team the starter...none at all...Especially when there are two better options available.

Let me explain for seemingly the millionth time why Miles is bad:

He's slow, he has literally no power, he can't field any position at even an average level (meaning his versatility is a complete myth), and he doesn't draw walks.

Did he outperform Kennedy? Well, yeah, but that's not the point. Ryan would have been better than Kennedy too, and would have actually been better than Miles too. I'm simply racking my mind trying to explain this to you, but basically it comes down to the fact that Miles is freaking bad at baseball and our management squad decided he was good enough to start in a pinch...Which he is not now or ever.

I guess that means my belief that Brendan Ryan is a better player than Aaron Miles and could have easily been the scrappyunselfishslappyjackdoesntstrikouttrieshardbattles blah blah fucking blah player for the 07 Cardinals makes me a moron, and I'm ok with that. Would that have saved the season? Of course not. But it would have maybe lead to 1 or 2 more wins, which in conjunction with several other better decisions might have been enough.

by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 2, 2007 9:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Miles

Believe me I don't think he is good. I don't think Kennedy's knee was the whole reason for how bad he was either.

Hoffpauir got hot last year but I don't think he was ready to be called up.

I said it 100 times on this board, STL quite possibly had the worst MI in baseball last year. I don't think it could just be passed off as injury related either.

Miles, Ryan, Eck, Kennedy, Barden Wow that is not a group that strikes fear in anyone.

I am saying it is not any better this year either with Kennedy, Miles, Hoffpauir, Izturis, Ryan, or Barden.

The MI is so bad it's not worth trying to say anyone is a great difference maker. You have a bunch of back up type MI talent at best. No one excites me in that group.

by ICbirdfan on Dec 2, 2007 10:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kennedy = JE = Teeno = Gant

I think nobody whines about AK 'cause we are all too used to reach FA signings that were bad ideas at the time and spend their entire time in a redbird uny proving it. There is nothing to be done about AK but hope he manages to become a reasonable facsimile of a big-league player again. There is no use hammering him due to the investment. I doubt he will ever be as good as either Miles or Ryan. I still can't believe WJ gave him three stinking years...

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Dec 2, 2007 9:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Guaranteed Contract

He's still owed over 6M dollars for the next two years. The Cardinals would be foolish not to at least give him a chance to get back to his norms.

I wouldn't give him a very long leash though. If he truly can't play anymore, you can't keep trotting him out there no matter what you are paying him.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 2, 2007 10:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I disagree about the worst signing

I put Kennedy as the worst, even over Wells. At least Wells could be a relief pitcher.

Time to bring up the prospects.

by CraveCase on Dec 3, 2007 12:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

he was the worst

but probably has a better chance of being better next year than Wells or Junior Spivey.

Acquire some runs... next year!

by madding on Dec 3, 2007 5:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

There was no way

to anticipate Kennedy would be that bad. And you can't cut him be has two more years guaranteed and zero trade value. Deal with it.

by willievinceterry on Dec 4, 2007 2:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well

If 2008 is as bad a 2007 or slightly better Mr. Kennedy may just get released.

The Arizona Diamondbacks released Russ Ortiz despite the fact that they still have to pay him. Why have a guy waste roster space if he is garbage? I don't care if you still owe him money it is a sunk cost and if you have a better 2B then get Kennedy off the roster and move on.

Guys do get released, I would not say it's common but it happens.

by ICbirdfan on Dec 4, 2007 11:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs