Rotation Possibilities

by AndyB83 on Dec 17, 2007 7:37 PM EST Comment 22 comments

This write-up started as a comment to one of the threads today but quickly got out of hand length-wise. Basically, I was working out my own reaction to houstoncardinal's break down of Duncan and Ankiel's trade value. Also, I wanted to consider how the team would look different in 2008 and 2009 based on whether they obtained a (younger) starting pitcher through trade or waved the white flag on available free agents.

So we've got Carpenter, Looper, Pineiro, Mulder, Wainwright, Reyes, and Thompson right now for starting pitchers. In my mind, anything Carpenter does in 2008 is a blessing... so throw him out. I'd rather be conservative than think that he's going to provide cy-young caliber pitching upon his return. Our 2008 rotation at the moment (in the mind of TLR & DD; I'd definitely pencil in Reyes over Thompson):

Wainwright
Looper
Pineiro
Mulder
Thompson/Reyes

But let's look one more year down the road... Carpenter returns (presumably...) and at least two contracts are up in Looper and Mulder (whew)... so that leaves us with these guys for 2009:

Carpenter
Wainwright
Pineiro
Reyes
Thompson

Now, this is assuming that Mo (as he's so endearingly been called by the STL media) quits making moves... which does not appear likely following the shipment of one Jim Edmonds to San Diego. He's going to add a pitcher somewhere. Why do I think so? Well, we just learned that Reyes has one more option left on his contract which means he's likely to spend some time down in Memphis. And after posting a 2.95 ERA in 55 innings pitched during his rookie season of 2005, Thompson spent time in Memphis during each of the 2006 and 2007 seasons. So it appears that there's a short leash on him as well. Assuming that TLR and DD aren't willing to pencil either Thompson or Reyes into the back end of the rotation, Mo's going to have to bring another guy this year.

Would it be better to throw a multi-year deal at one of the sub-par FA pitchers available or would it pay more dividends to swing a deal with the little bait that the Cards have in Duncan or Ankiel? Again, I'm thinking ahead here... 2009 being most important while hoping to make the 2008 team somewhat competitive as well. Let's walk through this.

Which starting pitchers are left at the moment? Here's a list. Not a whole lot there. There's some mediocre pitchers trying to capitalize on this year's weak FA class while hoping to get some overvalued multi-year deals. These are guys like Silva and Lohse. Then there's players who might be willing to take a one-year deal as an opportunity to boost their value come 2009. These are guys like Colon and Weaver. Then there's some other names that seem to have been linked to the Cards at one time or another... Fogg, Benson, Armas Jr., and Clement. And then there's the recently touted Josh Towers.Lets' take a look at these guys. For the time being, I'm going to use 2008 predictions from Bill James that are listed over at Fan Graphs. If there's better historical stats or future predictions to use here, please let me know. I checked on ZIPS but they weren't yet available for every player.

	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
Silva	199	4.61	1.38	3.71	1.58
Lohse	188	4.69	1.43	5.55	2.78
Colon	70	4.24	1.36	2.32	2.83
Weaver	185	4.72	1.38	5.74	2.34
Fogg	181	5.02	1.48	4.77	3.03
Benson	130	4.43	1.38	5.33	2.98
Armas Jr.	120	4.95	1.48	6.45	4.13
Clement	95	4.17	1.39	7.77	4.07
Towers	81	5.11	1.41	5.22	1.56

There you have it. A bunch of similarly league average pitchers. Nothing that the guys we already have on board couldn't do IMHO. For comparison's sake, take a look at the other two guys who that rotation slot will presumably go to.

	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
Thompson	109	4.62	1.38	4.54	2.64
Reyes	109	3.88	1.26	7.68	2.89

On second thought, we might have an upgrade available in Anthony Reyes. If only he could get out of the dog house. As a result, I'm not convinced that signing any of these guys is necessary to make the 2008 Cardinals more competitive than they already are... let alone the 2009 Cardinals when Carp has a completely rehabilitated throwing arm. What about the names that we've heard as potential trading chips thus far this winter? Of all the rumored Giants, I'm leaving out Lincecum because it just ain't likely. If he's available, someone else is going to have a better offer. Same for Bedard because we ain't sending Rasmus anywhere (everyone knock on wood now). Again, we're using 2008 Bill James projections.

	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
Cain	205	3.42	1.26	8.25	3.91
Sanchez	58	3.57	1.34	10.24	4.50
Lowry	194	4.13	1.41	5.98	3.80
E. Santana	160	4.39	1.38	6.98	3.21
Capuano	145	4.41	1.37	7.32	2.98

That's more like it. Seems that pursuing a trade (assuming Duncan or Ankiel and some throw-ins would get the deal done) offers us the best chance at fortifying a very ho-hum starting rotation in not only 2008, but 2009 and beyond. Most, if not all, of these guys are younger than their FA counterparts. The benefits are obvious: we'd have them under control for more years (assuming we are looking for a one year bargain) and they have more upside.

Our 2008 and 2009 Rotations:

2008

Wainwright

Looper

Pineiro

Mulder

Cain/Lowry/Santana

2009

Carpenter

Wainwright

Pineiro

Cain/Lowry/Santana

2009 Free Agent

Who are the 2009 Free Agent starting pitchers? Well, there's Johan Santana, Ben Sheets, and C.C. Sabathia. Also, there's other less desirable names such as Oliver Perez, Randy Wolf, Carl Pavano, Derek Lowe, and John Garland. And remember: A.J. Burnett may opt out of his current deal. Of course, several of these player's fates will likely be determined before they ever hit free agency... but the names look better than Silva or Lohse.

It should also be noted that there is quite a bit of money slated to come off of the books for the Cards after the 2008 season. No more Looper, Juancion, or Izzy. That extra money could conceivably be put towards acquiring a solid outfielder. Using the same list as linked to above, it appears guys like Abreu, Burrell, and Adam Dunn would be available. Therefore, the loss of production from Duncan or Ankiel could soon be replaced with the money that will become available after this season. And we could pull a one-year corner outfielder out of the current FA class in the mean time. It seems that 2009 is what the organization is looking towards anyways.

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Just so you know...

I tried my damndest to get some aesthetically pleasing tables happening on this post. The html even worked in other places when I tested it. Not sure what the problem was, but if anyone has any ideas, please let me know.

by AndyB83 on Dec 17, 2007 7:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I hope you don't mind

but I went ahead and threw your numbers into tables for readability. If you click on "Edit Story", you'll be able to see exactly what code I used for the tables.

by azruavatar on Dec 17, 2007 7:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mind?

No, thanks for taking the time to do that. I'll refer back to that code in the future when using tables.

by AndyB83 on Dec 17, 2007 11:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

generally, I had to make the post

and then insert the real code in an edit.

I will be commando

by Valatan on Dec 17, 2007 7:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Scoop

That's an odd quirk in Scoop that's nearly universal for every SBN site, unfortunately.

by sjoshi on Dec 17, 2007 10:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

very fascinating article

I, for one, have thought for a while that a trade would be much better than upwards of 4/45 or so for Silva/Lohse. Even though some of the names that you mentioned are all young studly future ace material, I am not sure if Dunc/Ank plus a throwin (Hamilton/Buckman/Mather) or two would get the job done.

The teams that have a surplus of young pitchers (Giants, Angels, Brewers) probably notice the lack of SP on the market, raising the demands.

But if a team were willing to dangle a Cain/Lowry for a Dunc/Ank+Mather then I say jump at the first chance you get.

sign someone GOOD this time!

by dunc4life on Dec 17, 2007 7:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The Giants' pitchers

a couple of things of note -- their respective ERAs are affected by the fact that they play in 1 of the best pitchers' parks in baseball. The Lowry peripherals indicate that he probably wouldn't finish w/ a 4.13 ERA in St. Louis. He'd still probably be close to league-average but the ERA would be probably .30-.40 higher.

Also, Sanchez is (obviously) projected there as a reliever. If he were to be traded to St. Louis he'd end up as a starter which would, along w/ the park change, probably increase the ERA by about 1.00, maybe a little more.

I'm all for trying to dump Duncan and Reyes for Lowry and Sanchez, but it's unlikely their #'s would look as good in St. Louis.

by chuckb on Dec 17, 2007 9:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If Ankiel is traded

you will know that Mo has full say in personel and La Russa none but really Mo stated on KTRS interview that some talks were being made with several clubs but no moves in the making. He also said that he would be satisfied with going into the season with roster as is and if it seemed necessary to make some moves to compete then there would be some changes made and he assured that the Cardinal's were definitely not in a rebuild mode to the extent of not trying to win next season. sounded like good logic to me. I also say wait and see, no real need for a big splash trade now. If Rolen gets off to even a reasonably good start with no sign of a lingering injury, he will bring much, much more than he will now. I would not be surprised at all to see the Giants start seeking a trade for Rolen and a prospect for lincecum or Dodgers making offers for Rolen but if Rolen is healthy and playing his norm it might be best to keep him.

by ridgesee on Dec 17, 2007 10:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And...

if he were to be converted into a starter, his K-rate would certainly take a hit as well. But what I like about him is that he's only 25 years old and has more room for improvement. Let's say his ERA would jump up 1.00 if he were to be a starter for the Cards. That's still around a 4.50. And that's approximately what these FA starters are projected for in 2008; but they are closer to the wrong side of 30. So I guess that's what I like about him. That and we'd actually probably get more than just Sanchez for Duncan. Wouldn't you think?

by AndyB83 on Dec 17, 2007 11:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

On Mulder...

I wouldn't count on him. He still has to prove that he's fully recovered from injury. The Mark Mulder who shows up in spring training can be the 2005 edition or a guy who discovers his career is over.

Because of that, my preference is to obtain a low-cost, back-of-the rotation starter (say, Josh Towers) in addition to locating a decent no. 2 or 3 in trade or free agency. Obviously, that other starter is going to be difficult to find, because I don't think anybody likes the idea of signing a Silva or Lohse for a high-priced, long-term deal (although Silva has a good durability history). That, in turn, makes any trade for young pitching an expensive one.

Say we sign Towers. If we use Anthony Reyes in a trade package for another starter, then we should sign somebody like Jack Cassel to a minor league deal, the idea being that if Mulder collapses at training camp, the Cards have a couple of back-up plans. For instance:

Wainwright
FA/Trade SP
Piniero
Looper
Mulder/Towers/Reyes or Cassel/Boggs

Because of Josh Kinney's continued injury woes, I doubt Thompson has a legit shot at the rotation--the bullpen needs him more. On the other hand, I wouldn't be too surprised to see Mitchell Boggs get a long look and an outside chance. He's most likely due for Memphis, but the Cardinals have been high on him for a while now.

Of course, another possibility is that St. Louis signs an innings-eater like Josh Towers and gambles that Mulder returns to some form that's workable (they'd be more abreast of his recovery than we are). In that scenario, Reyes would get another chance, which would mean that the Cardinals would have him, Wainwright, Pinerio, Looper, Towers, Mulder, and possibly Boggs vying for spot.

by Forsch31 on Dec 17, 2007 10:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I am maniacal

about walks per innings ratio (notice* my nom de plume) and you have totally knocked me off the Matt Clement bandwagon. I was stunned to see that his career BB/IP is as high as it is (4.60).

After some pen and paper calculations tho, I have a question about this alleged projection thingy from Bill James. Namely I noticed that every pitcher listed projects a significantly lower BB/IP than his career average. Every one. Ranging from about .20 points to .60 points better.

Does James assume that pitchers get BETTER at throwing strikes as they get older? One of the more generous ones is Armas: career BB/IP 4.69;why does James project him at 4.13 ?

* p.s. Tewk's career was 1.62 Compare that to these clowns in your table. Only Silva (1.81) and limited duty Towers (1.68) are comparable.

by the Tewk on Dec 17, 2007 10:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thompson

I'm probably the only one, but I was pretty happy last year when I read Thompson was going to get a look at starting.

The way it worked out, I think he was pretty abused in how he was used. I'm going off memory here and that can be dangerous, I know. Really need to look at a game log. But I remember him pitching extended innings on short rest often, bouncing back between starting and relief. Like everyone else, I've heard the cliche "He's a sinkerballer, he'll do better with a tired arm" a thousand times. But I don't know this to be true. In fact, I suspect it isn't. Maybe someone can point me somewhere to find meaningful analysis on that one. Until I see otherwise, I'm assuming bouncing him back on short rest inflated his numbers somewhat.

Also, like most everyone else on the team, there were occasions he absolutely got his brains beat in. But I believe Thompson had to take one for the team more than normal and continue to pitch to save the bullpen. KC game comes to mind and I think there was one with Milwaukee. So I think that inflates it some too.

Despite all that, he had an ERA plus of 93 last year. I guess I say all that to say that if we're stuck with signing a Fogg, Lohse, or Weaver type then I'd just assume go with Thompson. I think we can expect something resembling league average performance from him too, and he's making near league minimum and will be just 26. Again, maybe I'm in the minority here but I don't see much differentiating Thompson from most of the other available options other than the cost.

by Merry CRasmus on Dec 18, 2007 1:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

not the only one

I think he was horrifically misused last year. He'll never be an ace, but he'd be better than Lohse.

Christmas lights are an extremely efficient method for converting Christmas Spirit into heat. -anon

by SleepyCA on Dec 18, 2007 2:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

When a pitcher's arm is tired

the first thing to go is command - more likely to be taken yard. While the sinker may sink more that does not guarantee that the pitcher can spot it where he wants to. It also means the other pitches (does Thompson have other pitches?) will be less effective.

Thompson certainly deserves to be in the mix and I like him more as a starter than a reliever. I don't think he has enough stuff to be a reliever.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Dec 18, 2007 10:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But...

If he doesn't have enough stuff to be a reliever, then he certainly doesn't have enough stuff to be a starter. Generally speaking, a reliever only has to see batters once. A starter (successful one anyways) should expect to get through the lineup at least twice and hopefully three times.

by AndyB83 on Dec 18, 2007 1:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

More Thompson

Decided to look it up because I can't get to sleep. Three of his starts were on 3 days rest and 1 was on 2 days. Not as bad as I remembered it being, but this would still be considered unorthodox usage. It likely had some impact. He was asked to be a good soldier and was. He had a nice May and September, but a poor June and July.

He posted a 4.66 ERA as a starter with a whip of 1.51. Take out the 2 aforementioned starts and it's a 3.80 and 1.35. Now I realize that you have to take both the good and bad with anyone to get a meaningful picture, but I'd contend usage has a role in this with Thompson. If there was more consistency there I believe the edges would be smoothed out to some degree.

I also would contend that Thompson benefits from improved infield defense more than anyone on the staff.

I just think there may be a little more than meets the eye with Thompson. And it's becoming clear that's the type of thing Mozeliak is going to need to be looking for this offseason - hidden value wherever it can be found.

by Merry CRasmus on Dec 18, 2007 2:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Reyes

If Reyes is fine in ST then I think he need the vote of confidence of making the rotation right away. If he does that I could see him having a rebound year. Last year snowballed on him and he is still young so I think it is a mental thing. But now hopefully he is tougher and will pitch better. I am hoping that after ST we are weighing the merits of Looper/Pineiro/Mulder for the last spot in the rotation because everyone else was so good, not going to happen but I can still dream can't I?

by StLHugo on Dec 18, 2007 8:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

You can dream.

Maybe those Jupiter FL winds will blow in for everyone but those three.

by AndyB83 on Dec 18, 2007 8:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Is it just me...

Or does Colon's projected K/9 seem atrociously low? His projected ERA and projected WHIP are fairly close to what his career numbers look like, but his K/9 are about 3.5 - 4 K/9 lower than his career stats show, according to my figures. If he's truly a power pitcher who's going to walk more hitters than he's going to strike out every nine innings that would be an awfully bad gamble.

"The Cardinals have won a World Series in THEIR new stadium!" --my Uncle Jim to a heckling Cubs fan

by fourstick on Dec 18, 2007 9:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Free agency database?

I'd like to measure in some way how much the price of average starting pitching has changed over the last 5 or so years. Does anybody know a good place online to get a comprehensive list of free agent signings from year to year? I've googled a number of searches and have not found anything I'd be very comfortable with.

by Merry CRasmus on Dec 20, 2007 6:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i've looked for this too

places like COTS and mlb4u are great for current contracts, but past contracts seem to drop into the memory hole. You can kind of back it out for active players but that's it afaik.

Christmas lights are an extremely efficient method for converting Christmas Spirit into heat. -anon

by SleepyCA on Dec 20, 2007 9:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just wanted to add to this...

that actually the Cards hold an option on Mulder for $11 Million in 2009. They can opt out of the deal for $1.5 Mil. Still net savings of $9.5 Million.

Or if the old Mark Mulder shows up at the ball park we can have an above average pitcher for Carlos Silva-like money. Can't believe I just typed that.

by AndyB83 on Dec 20, 2007 11:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs