Rotation Possibilities
This write-up started as a comment to one of the threads today but quickly got out of hand length-wise. Basically, I was working out my own reaction to houstoncardinal's break down of Duncan and Ankiel's trade value. Also, I wanted to consider how the team would look different in 2008 and 2009 based on whether they obtained a (younger) starting pitcher through trade or waved the white flag on available free agents.
So we've got Carpenter, Looper, Pineiro, Mulder, Wainwright, Reyes, and Thompson right now for starting pitchers. In my mind, anything Carpenter does in 2008 is a blessing... so throw him out. I'd rather be conservative than think that he's going to provide cy-young caliber pitching upon his return. Our 2008 rotation at the moment (in the mind of TLR & DD; I'd definitely pencil in Reyes over Thompson):
- Wainwright
- Looper
- Pineiro
- Mulder
- Thompson/Reyes
- Carpenter
- Wainwright
- Pineiro
- Reyes
- Thompson
Would it be better to throw a multi-year deal at one of the sub-par FA pitchers available or would it pay more dividends to swing a deal with the little bait that the Cards have in Duncan or Ankiel? Again, I'm thinking ahead here... 2009 being most important while hoping to make the 2008 team somewhat competitive as well. Let's walk through this.
Which starting pitchers are left at the moment? Here's a list. Not a whole lot there. There's some mediocre pitchers trying to capitalize on this year's weak FA class while hoping to get some overvalued multi-year deals. These are guys like Silva and Lohse. Then there's players who might be willing to take a one-year deal as an opportunity to boost their value come 2009. These are guys like Colon and Weaver. Then there's some other names that seem to have been linked to the Cards at one time or another... Fogg, Benson, Armas Jr., and Clement. And then there's the recently touted Josh Towers.Lets' take a look at these guys. For the time being, I'm going to use 2008 predictions from Bill James that are listed over at Fan Graphs. If there's better historical stats or future predictions to use here, please let me know. I checked on ZIPS but they weren't yet available for every player.
| IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | |
| Silva | 199 | 4.61 | 1.38 | 3.71 | 1.58 |
| Lohse | 188 | 4.69 | 1.43 | 5.55 | 2.78 |
| Colon | 70 | 4.24 | 1.36 | 2.32 | 2.83 |
| Weaver | 185 | 4.72 | 1.38 | 5.74 | 2.34 |
| Fogg | 181 | 5.02 | 1.48 | 4.77 | 3.03 |
| Benson | 130 | 4.43 | 1.38 | 5.33 | 2.98 |
| Armas Jr. | 120 | 4.95 | 1.48 | 6.45 | 4.13 |
| Clement | 95 | 4.17 | 1.39 | 7.77 | 4.07 |
| Towers | 81 | 5.11 | 1.41 | 5.22 | 1.56 |
| IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | |
| Thompson | 109 | 4.62 | 1.38 | 4.54 | 2.64 |
| Reyes | 109 | 3.88 | 1.26 | 7.68 | 2.89 |
On second thought, we might have an upgrade available in Anthony Reyes. If only he could get out of the dog house. As a result, I'm not convinced that signing any of these guys is necessary to make the 2008 Cardinals more competitive than they already are... let alone the 2009 Cardinals when Carp has a completely rehabilitated throwing arm. What about the names that we've heard as potential trading chips thus far this winter? Of all the rumored Giants, I'm leaving out Lincecum because it just ain't likely. If he's available, someone else is going to have a better offer. Same for Bedard because we ain't sending Rasmus anywhere (everyone knock on wood now). Again, we're using 2008 Bill James projections.
| IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | |
| Cain | 205 | 3.42 | 1.26 | 8.25 | 3.91 |
| Sanchez | 58 | 3.57 | 1.34 | 10.24 | 4.50 |
| Lowry | 194 | 4.13 | 1.41 | 5.98 | 3.80 |
| E. Santana | 160 | 4.39 | 1.38 | 6.98 | 3.21 |
| Capuano | 145 | 4.41 | 1.37 | 7.32 | 2.98 |
That's more like it. Seems that pursuing a trade (assuming Duncan or Ankiel and some throw-ins would get the deal done) offers us the best chance at fortifying a very ho-hum starting rotation in not only 2008, but 2009 and beyond. Most, if not all, of these guys are younger than their FA counterparts. The benefits are obvious: we'd have them under control for more years (assuming we are looking for a one year bargain) and they have more upside.
Our 2008 and 2009 Rotations:
2008
Wainwright
Looper
Pineiro
Mulder
Cain/Lowry/Santana
2009
Carpenter
Wainwright
Pineiro
Cain/Lowry/Santana
2009 Free Agent
Who are the 2009 Free Agent starting pitchers? Well, there's Johan Santana, Ben Sheets, and C.C. Sabathia. Also, there's other less desirable names such as Oliver Perez, Randy Wolf, Carl Pavano, Derek Lowe, and John Garland. And remember: A.J. Burnett may opt out of his current deal. Of course, several of these player's fates will likely be determined before they ever hit free agency... but the names look better than Silva or Lohse.
It should also be noted that there is quite a bit of money slated to come off of the books for the Cards after the 2008 season. No more Looper, Juancion, or Izzy. That extra money could conceivably be put towards acquiring a solid outfielder. Using the same list as linked to above, it appears guys like Abreu, Burrell, and Adam Dunn would be available. Therefore, the loss of production from Duncan or Ankiel could soon be replaced with the money that will become available after this season. And we could pull a one-year corner outfielder out of the current FA class in the mean time. It seems that 2009 is what the organization is looking towards anyways.
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22 comments
Comments
Just so you know...
by AndyB83 on Dec 17, 2007 7:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I hope you don't mind
by azruavatar on Dec 17, 2007 7:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
generally, I had to make the post
by Valatan on Dec 17, 2007 7:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Scoop
by sjoshi on Dec 17, 2007 10:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
very fascinating article
The teams that have a surplus of young pitchers (Giants, Angels, Brewers) probably notice the lack of SP on the market, raising the demands.
But if a team were willing to dangle a Cain/Lowry for a Dunc/Ank+Mather then I say jump at the first chance you get.
by dunc4life on Dec 17, 2007 7:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The Giants' pitchers
Also, Sanchez is (obviously) projected there as a reliever. If he were to be traded to St. Louis he'd end up as a starter which would, along w/ the park change, probably increase the ERA by about 1.00, maybe a little more.
I'm all for trying to dump Duncan and Reyes for Lowry and Sanchez, but it's unlikely their #'s would look as good in St. Louis.
by chuckb on Dec 17, 2007 9:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
If Ankiel is traded
by ridgesee on Dec 17, 2007 10:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And...
by AndyB83 on Dec 17, 2007 11:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
On Mulder...
Because of that, my preference is to obtain a low-cost, back-of-the rotation starter (say, Josh Towers) in addition to locating a decent no. 2 or 3 in trade or free agency. Obviously, that other starter is going to be difficult to find, because I don't think anybody likes the idea of signing a Silva or Lohse for a high-priced, long-term deal (although Silva has a good durability history). That, in turn, makes any trade for young pitching an expensive one.
Say we sign Towers. If we use Anthony Reyes in a trade package for another starter, then we should sign somebody like Jack Cassel to a minor league deal, the idea being that if Mulder collapses at training camp, the Cards have a couple of back-up plans. For instance:
Wainwright
FA/Trade SP
Piniero
Looper
Mulder/Towers/Reyes or Cassel/Boggs
Because of Josh Kinney's continued injury woes, I doubt Thompson has a legit shot at the rotation--the bullpen needs him more. On the other hand, I wouldn't be too surprised to see Mitchell Boggs get a long look and an outside chance. He's most likely due for Memphis, but the Cardinals have been high on him for a while now.
Of course, another possibility is that St. Louis signs an innings-eater like Josh Towers and gambles that Mulder returns to some form that's workable (they'd be more abreast of his recovery than we are). In that scenario, Reyes would get another chance, which would mean that the Cardinals would have him, Wainwright, Pinerio, Looper, Towers, Mulder, and possibly Boggs vying for spot.
by Forsch31 on Dec 17, 2007 10:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I am maniacal
After some pen and paper calculations tho, I have a question about this alleged projection thingy from Bill James. Namely I noticed that every pitcher listed projects a significantly lower BB/IP than his career average. Every one. Ranging from about .20 points to .60 points better.
Does James assume that pitchers get BETTER at throwing strikes as they get older? One of the more generous ones is Armas: career BB/IP 4.69;why does James project him at 4.13 ?
* p.s. Tewk's career was 1.62 Compare that to these clowns in your table. Only Silva (1.81) and limited duty Towers (1.68) are comparable.
by the Tewk on Dec 17, 2007 10:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thompson
The way it worked out, I think he was pretty abused in how he was used. I'm going off memory here and that can be dangerous, I know. Really need to look at a game log. But I remember him pitching extended innings on short rest often, bouncing back between starting and relief. Like everyone else, I've heard the cliche "He's a sinkerballer, he'll do better with a tired arm" a thousand times. But I don't know this to be true. In fact, I suspect it isn't. Maybe someone can point me somewhere to find meaningful analysis on that one. Until I see otherwise, I'm assuming bouncing him back on short rest inflated his numbers somewhat.
Also, like most everyone else on the team, there were occasions he absolutely got his brains beat in. But I believe Thompson had to take one for the team more than normal and continue to pitch to save the bullpen. KC game comes to mind and I think there was one with Milwaukee. So I think that inflates it some too.
Despite all that, he had an ERA plus of 93 last year. I guess I say all that to say that if we're stuck with signing a Fogg, Lohse, or Weaver type then I'd just assume go with Thompson. I think we can expect something resembling league average performance from him too, and he's making near league minimum and will be just 26. Again, maybe I'm in the minority here but I don't see much differentiating Thompson from most of the other available options other than the cost.
by Merry CRasmus on Dec 18, 2007 1:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
not the only one
by SleepyCA on Dec 18, 2007 2:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
When a pitcher's arm is tired
Thompson certainly deserves to be in the mix and I like him more as a starter than a reliever. I don't think he has enough stuff to be a reliever.
by giveml on Dec 18, 2007 10:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But...
by AndyB83 on Dec 18, 2007 1:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
More Thompson
He posted a 4.66 ERA as a starter with a whip of 1.51. Take out the 2 aforementioned starts and it's a 3.80 and 1.35. Now I realize that you have to take both the good and bad with anyone to get a meaningful picture, but I'd contend usage has a role in this with Thompson. If there was more consistency there I believe the edges would be smoothed out to some degree.
I also would contend that Thompson benefits from improved infield defense more than anyone on the staff.
I just think there may be a little more than meets the eye with Thompson. And it's becoming clear that's the type of thing Mozeliak is going to need to be looking for this offseason - hidden value wherever it can be found.
by Merry CRasmus on Dec 18, 2007 2:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Reyes
by StLHugo on Dec 18, 2007 8:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
You can dream.
by AndyB83 on Dec 18, 2007 8:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is it just me...
by fourstick on Dec 18, 2007 9:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Free agency database?
by Merry CRasmus on Dec 20, 2007 6:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i've looked for this too
by SleepyCA on Dec 20, 2007 9:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just wanted to add to this...
Or if the old Mark Mulder shows up at the ball park we can have an above average pitcher for Carlos Silva-like money. Can't believe I just typed that.
by AndyB83 on Dec 20, 2007 11:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs



















