The 08 Plan

by Lawless on Nov 7, 2007 9:49 PM EST

I tried to wait until the final free agent list came out to post my 2008 plan for the Cards but I just couldn't hold out any longer. So here goes. I'll break it out by:

Arbitration considerations
Free Agents
Trades
MILB Considerations
Roster
Go forward...

Click read more if you dare!

Arbitration considerations - I would try to come to some gentleman's agreement with Percival and Eckstein such that if I offer them Arb they won't accept (much like the Pads did with all their Type Bs last year). Even if I couldn't reach such an agreement I would offer both arbitration and would expect both to exit stage left...

Free agents - Lets face it, the market is weak and the guys who are going to cost big bucks simply are not worth it. Low impact signings:

Milton Bradley if he could be had for 1y/$5M
Michael Barrett if he could be had for 1y/$3M
Corry Koskie if Rolen leaves 1Y/$3M
Reggie Sanders if he could be had for 1Y/$2M

That's it. There is plenty in the way of reclamation projects and if Prior could be had for 1Y $5M with an option I would pony up, but otherwise, with Mulder, Carpenter, and Reyes we have two many projects as is...

Trades - I try to keep these as realistic as possible but I am absolutely certain that many of you will disagree to one extent or another, heck that's what makes this fun. Also, I will freely admit that some of these ideas are pure theivery from other posters (Ben Zobrist for example). What can I say, there are alot of smart people blogging round these parts. So without further ado, here goes:

Zobrist and Baldelli for Franklin and Reyes - The Rays don't need either of these guys and the Cards could use a SS and a RH OFer with upside and cost controlled. The Rays need pitching. Press the dang button already!
Rolen and Looper to SF for Zito and Sanchez - On the face of it this deal would get a huge - HUH? - but from a dig deeper perspective, the SF Giants get out of a bad contract and get an excellent defender with upside in Rolen. To get out of the horrible contract they have to take on a less horrible contract and give up a prospect. Makes sense for the Giants. From the Cards perspective, they get a tough contract, but they also get a #3ish starter that will take the ball everyday. He might average a 4 ERA over the next five years, BUT, he will not embarass you and he will take the ball. By the end of this contract it will be near market. Sanchez is the upside to the deal, he could provide a really good starter and he could be an Anthony Reyes reincarnate with LaDunc.
Finally, I would send C. Perez and pick a C+ prospect to the Indians for Josh Barfield and Andy Marte.

As for MILB, my expectation for individuals that could contribute to the big league club would be as follows:

Rasmus is up mid-year
Worrell is called up day one
Motte is up/down based on need
Hawk/Boggs/Walters/Parisi compete for a job in the middle of the year
Haerther/Stavinoha/Mather - compete for 5th 0F/RH slugger off the bench
Hoffpauir competing for a big league spot as an IF super sub

So that leaves me with a lineup as follows:

Against RHP

SS Zobrist (career MILB OBP 400+)
CF Jim Edmonds (in front of Pu cant't hurt)
1B Albert Pujols
LF Chris Duncan (hopefully he is 1st half Dunc)
RF Rick Ankiel
2B Josh Barfield/Kennedy
3B Koskie/Hoffpauir
C Molina/House

Against LHP

SS B Zobrist
2B Josh Barfield
1B Albert Pujols
CF Rocco Baldelli
C Y Molina
LF Ryan Ludwick
RF R Sanders/R Ankiel
3B J Hoffpauir/C Koskie

Starting Pitchers

Adam Wainright
Barry Zito
Mark Mulder
Joel Piniero
Jonathan Sanchez
Chris Carpenter

Relief Pitchers

Izzy
Springer
Worrell
T Johnson
R Flores
T. Wellemeyer

Bench/Interchangeable

Koskie 3B
Hoffpauir IF
Ludwick OF
Sanders OF
House C
Spezio OF/IF

Payroll - Zito/Sanchez for Rolen/Loop is a wash (in 08 at least). Baldelli would represent about $4M in accretive payroll. So my guesstimate is that you are trucking along with a payroll in the $100M neighborhood. Long term, Zito is a risk, but that's what insurance is for right? AND

Looking to 09 you would have the following core:

Carpenter
Wainright
Zito
Sanchez

Lineup

SS - Zobrist 26
1B - Pujols 28
LF - Duncan 28/29
CF - Baldelli/Rasmus
RF - Ankiel 28/29
C - Molina/Anderson
2B - Barfield
3B - Marte or Free Agent

Not to shabby from my perspective... Anywho, let me know what you think and I am prepared to be hammered for Zito, and if you are interested in hindsight take a look at my posts last year that were bombed: http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/story/2006/11/5/22346/0724 http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/story/2006/11/17/222754/93

Poll

Who gets the better end of a Rolen for Zito deal?

Giants

26 votes

Cardinals

10 votes

Win Win

3 votes

39 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 24 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

You know who wins

Nintendo, for influencing an entire generation of baseball fans to mix and match rosters with such ease. Finally, a win for weak men who live on hot pockets.

by Dave Barry on Nov 7, 2007 9:49 PM EST reply actions

that was uncalled for.

by stlcardinalsfang on Nov 7, 2007 9:53 PM EST up reply actions

That did

sound a little malicious when I read it again. Let me back track by saying, they win by keeping young people interested in the off season by insprining imaginative trades and outcomes. My Jab at the Nintendo creators,however, still applies

by Dave Barry on Nov 7, 2007 10:14 PM EST up reply actions

It's what I like to do in mis rates libres

so pass the pepperoni I guess!

by Lawless on Nov 7, 2007 10:05 PM EST up reply actions

Hahhhhhhhtt Pahhhhhhhhhhkets!

by siddfynch on Nov 8, 2007 10:31 AM EST up reply actions

Ineteresting...

While there is a lot to take in here, first off the Cards won't carry 6 OFs. And if you bring up Rasmus mid season that's 7. Also in the FA section you went after Bradley and Barrett - I guess we assume those fell through??

I suppose you were doing this for fun, bc the whole thing is way more activity than the Cards will really do. But's late and I'm tired, so I'll let everyone else shoot down the Zito trade and some of the other transactions. I guess if nothing else, it's fun to dream....

by joecardsfan on Nov 7, 2007 9:54 PM EST reply actions

Yep

I think of it like an auction for the free agents where my bid did not meet the ultimate asking price (i.e. I would bid for ARod at one year $30M, but I don't think he'd do it!). In the end of the free agents I assumed we picked up Koskie and Sanders...

As for the OF situation my expectation is that someone gets injured along the way (Vegas would have the odds weighted heavily on Sanders or Baldelli methinks) so off the cuff I don't find it mutually exclusive to have the extra spots so to speak...

by Lawless on Nov 7, 2007 10:03 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks for the post...

Thought it was insightful and well put together. So thank you for doing it.

I wonder about Zito, couldhe be the next Mulder?

Again, great post.

by onebigdummy on Nov 7, 2007 10:28 PM EST reply actions

Could be...

I think the big differences with Zito are as follows:

We are not giving up someone with upside we are taking on a contract
Zito has shown he can consistently take the ball day in and day out in his career, while Mulder was a health risk the day we signed him (serious red flags regarding his second half and release point)

As for performance, My take is that Zito is a 4 ERA pitcher over five years. $18M is alot to pay, but if he produced a 4 ERA over five years I would take it... Tough contract and not an easy decision. The naysayer will say, can't we just pick someone else to get us a 4 ERA, I would say that this is the cost of the Anthony Reyes debaucle and a farm club that is at least a year away from producing any viable pitching options.

If I had my druthers I probably wouldn't get Zito and I would go completely young and throw Boggs or Hawk to the wolves. I just don't think that is something the Cards front office would do...

by Lawless on Nov 8, 2007 7:10 PM EST up reply actions

Zito = Suppan

with slightly more upside and an extremely long and expensive contract.

I like Milton Bradley, but if we got Baldelli, we wouldn't need him.

Would Rolen willingly go to San Francisco?

Other than that, sounds like a good plan.

"Jumpy, jumpy, jumpy, fall!" - Bob the King

by bobtheking on Nov 7, 2007 10:41 PM EST reply actions

Disagree on Zito = Suppan

Zito is a better pitcher than Suppan (historically speaking), he is six years younger and he has proven to be consistently successful.

Agreed on Bradley, just an option, but you are correct acquiring Bradley and Baldelli and Sanders is redudant, it would just be one of the three.

I think Rolen would go to SF just to get away from LaRussa. Just my gut though...

by Lawless on Nov 8, 2007 7:13 PM EST up reply actions

Oh man that is a hot mess

why in gods name would you trade for zito..or sanders..or koskie

sanders wont do much better than ludwick..his only plus side is he is a right hander

if we trade rolen, it will probably be to the yankees and we will probably end up with betemit, who im fine with especially over koskie.

i do like the zobrist trade although i dont know if reyes gets it done and i cant see us giving up him and franklin but it wouldnt be the worst thing in the world.

i really agree with the other thread about not doing anything stupid just because they are available..wait till 09 for the big splash

i could see us trading reyes and a few others for bay..that gets us the power right handed bat at only 6 mill i think per year for the next 2 years..

what about felipe lopez at short..he had a bounceback year and he probably wouldnt be ridiculously hard to get...he has speed and can play short and wouldnt kill us while ryan is getting better

lopez
ankiel
pujols
bay
rolen
duncan/edmonds/ludwick
molina
pitcher
kennedy

that doesnt increase our payroll much at all and its good enough to where we could trade duncan for a SP

by willie is a stud on Nov 7, 2007 11:48 PM EST reply actions

Response/Rationale

Why trade for Zito Giants - B/C the Giants need hitting and want to deal there excess pitching. My guess is that they would be happy to 86 the Zito contract.

Why trade for Zito Cardinals - Net loss if you get rid of Looper and Rolen is $0 the first year and $4M incremental for the next two years. $s wise, it doesn't hurt. Talent wise, you are letting a league average aging 3B and a lucky to be below league average SP (imho) go for an above average SP (my take, based on history, highly debatable to be sure).

As for Rolen to the Yanks for Betemit. I would do it before the Zito deal with no hesitation. Not sure Betemit is the answer but he would be worth taking a flyer on (along with the signing of Koskie :).

Koskie would be a platoon guy. Look at his splits career OPS above 800 last year and historically.

Sanders would only be necessary as your 5th OF. If you were going into the year with only Ludwick and ??? I would pick up Sanders. What's the downside, you are robbing at bats from Joe Mather? Not yet IMHO.

by Lawless on Nov 8, 2007 7:20 PM EST up reply actions

I like the idea of getting Zobrist...

I've mentioned it quite a few times here.

How about if we expand the deal a little bit. The only place the Rays aren't chop full of young talent is the bullpen, so they'd probably look for some pieces there.

Here is what I propose...

Ryan Franklin and Randy Flores for Baldelli, Zobrist and Joel Guzman

The Rays are desperate to move Baldelli's salary as they have no room for him, and he is one of the highest paid players on the team. He'll make 4.5M next year, 6M in '09 then has two option years at 8M. Zobrist has been discussed at length. Guzman hasn't been able to transition to AAA yet and Longoria blew by him already. You'd be buying low on all three, and all have some big time upside.

The Rays get two veteran bullpen arms who are affordable, while fulfilling their main objective(ridding themselves of Baldelli), and not giving up much else they would miss.

Baldelli, hasn't been able to stay healthy since he got hurt last year. Ton of upside.

I think the deal makes sense for both sides, as the Rays can't ask for much for any of these guys but still are able to shore up their biggest weakness.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Nov 8, 2007 12:18 AM EST reply actions

Wow...

Totally overlooked the fact that you had Baldelli added as well.

Sorry to jack your idea.

I actually think they can be had even cheaper than what you thought however.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Nov 8, 2007 12:24 AM EST up reply actions

Poaching

I would love to try to get Guzman as well or possibly Dukes (though he just seems to messed up to touch at this point)... but my main target would be Zobrist as mentioned countless times here before. My only hesitation is that it always seems teams know a little more about there own players (e.g. Jason Schmidt last year with the Gigantes)

by Lawless on Nov 8, 2007 7:24 PM EST up reply actions

Hmm

I love the Rays trade, but I'm not sure the Rays would do it. Zobrist is a pretty good prospect and Baldelli is a solid major leaguer. Franklin has only one year of dominance now, and even then he faded toward the end. Reyes was just downright scary last year -- they've already got Edwin Jackson, former highly regarded pitching prospect -- I'm not sure they'd want another one of those. Not to mention the fact that other teams with better expendable players might give them more for either of those guys.

I find your willingness to take on the Zito contract to be utter insanity. He's crap and he's getting crappier, and these huge contracts for old players past their prime is what's giving us problems NOW...how useless will Zito be at the end of his contract? Forget it. I'll take Zito for free, but I'm completely unwilling to pay him a billion dollars for his 85 MPH curveball. I laughed at the Giants when they signed him and I fully intend on laughing at them for the next, what, six years? Forget it.

Also, I'm not sure what happened to Barrett in this idea, or how exactly he turned into J.R. House.

Also, I gotta figure the Indians still value Marte more than that. But I would like that trade, too, if we could swing it. Youth youth youth.

by mojowo11 on Nov 8, 2007 1:34 AM EST reply actions

Typo...

85 MPH fastball is what I meant.

Can't help thinking curveball when discussing Zito.

by mojowo11 on Nov 8, 2007 1:35 AM EST up reply actions

Run, don't walk, from Barry Zito

But the D-Rays deal seems pretty good. I believe Zobrist is probably available, what with the emergence of Brendan Hall last year, the grooming of Reid Brignac as the heir at SS, and the presence of Wilson and Velandia as backup IFs.

I'm actually not too excited about Baldelli- I think he's OK as a backup plan, but I'd rather see us target a RH bat with a higher OBP that can get on base more reliably in front of Pujols.

by siddfynch on Nov 8, 2007 10:41 AM EST reply actions

I think

this may top the diary that mentioned Einar Diaz. In fact, I'd support trading Rolen for Einar Diaz at this point over trading him for Barry Zito.

I don't think the Rays do that trade. Yeah, those guys are redundant for the Rays, but value is determined by what other teams are willing to pay.

by CardFaninVA on Nov 8, 2007 11:55 AM EST up reply actions

Did you even know that Bradley won't play

until July of next year?

He's not someone to take seriously when considering '08.

by SpringfieldDude on Nov 8, 2007 10:46 AM EST reply actions

Why has anybody voted Cards in this poll?

We'd be giving up a gold glove 3B who at worst is going to be average offensively (and possibly much better), and whom we pay $12M a year for the next 3 years, for an average-ish pitcher who we'd be paying $18M a year for the next 6 years. Even in this crazy market, you should be able to get 2 guys comparable to Zito for that price per year, for fewer years, and you get to diversify your risk (and keep Rolen).

by CardFaninVA on Nov 8, 2007 11:59 AM EST reply actions

I like the D-Rays deal

And I also think that they'd do it. They would easily take a flier on Reyes and grab Franklin and/or Flores to add bullpen help, which they sorely need. The Cards have plenty of bullpen type pitchers in the minors and Kinney hopefully being ready to go by opening day. I've been a fan of Baldelli for a long time, he's the type of guy who just needs a change of scenery and he could easily start producing numbers. Zobrist gives the Cards a guy who can hit leadoff and fill the shortstop position for at least a couple of years.

Getting Baldelli would make dealing Duncan more palatable, possibly moving him to Minnesota or San Fran for some type of pitching help/prospects.

I really don't think Rolen would agree to that deal to SF for one, and for two, why would they want the THIRD best pitcher on the 2003 A's when they have to second best pitcher from that team and he hasn't don't bupkus? Maybe we could trade Mulder back to Oakland for Dan Haren, that's a deal that I'd do in a heartbeat.

The other guys mentioned here:
Koskie -- not worth it, he's not an impact guy

Bradley -- 1/2 a season is the most they'd get

Sanders -- declining and unproductive (i.e. a platoon of Ankiel/Ludwick gives them much better #'s than signing Sanders)

Barrett -- unless they need someone to fight A.J. Pierzinski I don't see the point. He's not a great hitter and doesn't net them anything as a backup catcher. Just sign a cheap veteran or give a youngster a shot.

"The Cardinals have won a World Series in THEIR new stadium!" --my Uncle Jim to a heckling Cubs fan

by fourstick on Nov 8, 2007 5:52 PM EST reply actions

Good stuff

I pretty much agree with most of this. I'd actually rather gamble that Rolen can come back as a decent hitter, and give us an .850 OPS than gamble that Zito will be a 4 ERA pitcher for the rest of his contract. We know Rolen is only limited by the injury, and he may have solved it - Zito, I think is limited by talent at this point.

by siddfynch on Nov 9, 2007 9:49 AM EST up reply actions