a little quick followup on yesterday's riff on projections: Cardinal70 compared the preseason community projections done here at VEB and at Cardinals Clubhouse vs the actual stats. two posts: number 1 and number 2.

mozeliak has made initial contect w/ the curt schilling camp:

schilling mentions the same thing at his blog. the talk is of a 1-year deal, which makes sense for the cards; since the salary won't carry over into 2009, it almost doesn't matter what they pay him. (for whatever it's worth, my cocktail-napkin estimate the other day placed his expected per-annum figure in the range of $12.5 million.) we should be aware that schilling is showing some pretty serious signs of decline; in the last 3 years he's hit the disabled list twice, and his FIP, whip, k/9, and hr/9 figures from 2007 were all the worst he's posted in more than a decade. but that's not my main hesitation with this idea; there's a reasonable chance schilling will bounce back, and even if he doesn't he's an upgrade over the status quo. my primary hesitation is that schilling, a type A, would cost the cardinals a draft pick. their 1st-round pick is protected since it's among the top 15, but they would lose their 2d-rounder, which would probably fall at around #70. players the cardinals recently selected at around #70 have included dan haren (72d pick in 2001), mark hamilton (#76 in 2006), and jon jay (#74 in 2006); a decade ago, they chose rick ankiel in the 2d round with the 72d pick. current players on other teams recently chosen in the range of #70 include yunel escobar (the atlanta rookie who pushed edgar renteria out of a job), hunter pence, dustin pedrioa, curtis granderson, grady sizemore, chase utley, elijah dukes, ryan garko, and chris ray (the baltimore closer). of the 100 draft picks made at 70 through 79 between 1995 and 2004, 31 have played in the majors and about 15 became regulars at some point. so if the cards sign schilling to make 30 starts, i'll cost them roughly a 1 in 6 chance at a homegrown regular.

i'd give roughly the same odds (ie, 1 in 6) to schilling's turning the cards into contenders next year. to me, that's not a good tradeoff --- i'd rather have the draft pick than the 2 or 3 marginal wins schilling will be worth in 2008 --- but i can see the other side of the argument. it's not as if the future of the farm system hinges on one stinkin' draftee. the cardinals will gain at least 1 compensation pick (in the #50s or so) when troy percival gets signed away, and possibly another in the same range if they let eckstein go somewhere else. if i were in charge, i'd stockpile all the high draft picks i could get, but if the cards have a surplus of 'em and choose to sacrifice one for some short-term gain it's not the end of the world.

oh, by the way: the brewers are interested too.