Morning, everyone.  I hope that you all had an enjoyable Thanksgiving holiday.  

The Winter Meetings are nearly ready to kick off.  I expect the Cards to make a move or two then, but probably not before.  A couple things:  

By now, I'm sure you all know that the Cards were Torii Hunter's first choice.  I have to say, I'm encouraged by the fact that the Cards didn't seem to have much interest in him.  I will admit, though, he would have looked awfully good in red.  The problem with Hunter's contract, as it is with most of the contracts being signed by the big name players of late, isn't so much the money.  Far more worrisome than the cash outlay is the number of years that players are routinely commanding.  Most teams, (some more than others, but still) can afford the salary.  The problem comes when you lock a player up for five or six years, often at an escalating rate.  By the last couple years of the deal, the player is no longer performing up to the contract, and the team is stuck with him, often blocking other moves they could make to potentially improve their fortunes.  The kind of foresight to resist even getting into the bidding for Hunter is very encouraging to me.  I'm sure some will look at it as being cheap, but a five year deal for a 32 year old center fielder is not something the Cards need to get involved with right now.  They have a CF on the way, and, as we've all seen, guys in such a demanding position tend to age pretty quickly.  Also, exactly what in the world are the Angels doing?  I'm sure they think they're loading up for a run, but it looks to me as if they're just sort of changing their minds about the direction they want to take.  I'm interested to see how their moves play out.  

I would like to organise a letter writing campaign, or something similar, to get some network to rebroadcast the California Raisins Christmas Special.  I'm sure not many of you remember it, but it was really great.  It was entirely composed of musical vignettes, without any sort of story.  The version of, "We Three Kings", performed with assistance from several singing camels, was absolutely sublime.  If anyone would like to spearhead this initiative, (and by spearhead I mean do it yourself, because I will totally forget about this in a week or so) let me know.  

I received the new issue of Baseball America yesterday, with the top 10 prospect lists for the NL Central clubs in it.  BA doesn't have it up over at the website yet, but I'll give you the gist of it.  Their list is pretty close to the one compiled by reader votes over at Future Redbirds, with a couple exceptions.  Pete Kozma was rated much higher by BA, sneaking in at #6.  I'm personally encouraged by this; the scouting report in particular is very complementary.  His range is described as 'outstanding', which I was happy to hear.  Chris Perez and Jaime Garcia are flip flopped, I assume due to the fact that Perez should have an impact on the big club pretty soon; I wish someone would teach the kid to just throw strikes.  He's nearly unhittable, (23 hits in 50 some odd innings) but gets himself into trouble because he can't throw a ball straight to save his life.  What I found the most surprising about the BA list, though, was the inclusion of Jon Jay.  He placed at #10, and he's fallen almost completely off of most of our radars.  I'm not sure what they see in him that they like so much, but there must be something, considering what a tough season he had.  Maybe the kid really does hit like Tony Gwynn.  Hopefully, he'll get healthy and we'll get a chance to see.  

All right.  Without further ado, my third and final draft rewind:  

In 2005, we saw the Cardinals, bolstered by some extra picks in the first couple of rounds, take a few calculated risks.  So far, they've paid off pretty well, with Colby Rasmus(1) quickly approaching the majors, (and hopefully all star status) and Tyler Herron two of the system's top prospects.  (Herron is #8 on the new BA list)  A couple of other high risk players, both collegians, haven't panned out as well, (McCormick and Tyler Greene) but both, McCormick in particular, still have high upsides if either one can figure it all out.  Couple of nice sleeper picks here too, with Jaime Garcia(22) and Kenny Maiques(37) the best of the bunch.  

In 2006, we saw a bit more measured approach, with slightly more conservative, collegiate picks at the top.  Adam Ottavino(1) looks decent, while Chris Perez(1s) could step in as the Cards' closer of the future in the next year or so.  The real haul of this draft, though, was the great depth the Cardinals got in the middle rounds.  They went heavy on college players with good statistical profiles, and did a nice job of identifying some pretty solid prospects.  Brad Furnish, P.J. Walters, Allan Craig, Mark Hamilton, and Jon Jay all look as if they could be decent contributors in the future.  A couple of okay late round picks, but the Cards went heavy on the college products and light on the projects here.  They had a couple of guys they thought were going to be stars from 05, and they seemed to try and establish some solid depth with this draft.  

In 2007, the Cardinals didn't have a huge bonanza of picks at the top, a la 2005.  They did have a supplemental first round pick, and an extra 2nd rounder.  They also happened to be picking much higher than they had the previous two years, coming in at #18.  

With their first pick, the Cardinals took Pete Kozma, a high school shortstop form Owasso, Oklahoma.  This pick generated a lot of ill will at the time, with many people, (myself included, I freely admit) very uset the Cards passed over Rick Porcello, probably the best prep pitcher in the draft.  Now, a couple of misconceptions about the Kozma pick.  One, he would not have been available in the supp. 1st, at #46.  If he had still been on the board when the Twins picked, they would have taken him.  If the Cardinals really thought he was the guy, they had to take him when they did.  (Again, I was part of a group who believed he would have been available at 46.  He wouldn't have.)  Second, Kozma is not that similar to David Eckstein.  A lot of us were upset when we started reading things about Kozma like how good his makeup was, that his tools play up due to his good instincts, etc.  All the things that we've heard about Eckstein and his ilk for years.  Kozma has much better tools than that.  His range is apparently very good, and his other tools all grade as above average.  His power potential isn't great, but that's really the only thing that looks to be a limiting factor.  At the time, I, like quite a few others, was really down on this pick.  Time has softened my stance.  That being said, there were still three high school pitchers on the board that I would have rather seen the Cardinals take.  Rick Porcello, who went to the Tigers at 27, Tim Alderson, who was snagged by the Giants at around 23, I believe, and my personal favourite, Michael Main, who ended up with the Rangers at 22, I think.  All three had upsides that I felt made them more attractive than Kozma.  Still, though, the Cardinals identified a spot where they felt they really needed to add some talent, and they took the best player at that position.  I like the pick pretty well; he's a high schooler, he plays a premium position, and his ceiling looks to be pretty good.  (also better than the Mark Loretta comps that were being tossed around a bunch.)  

While the Cards didn't absolutely shoot for the stars with the first pick, I do like that they took a talented prep player, rather than a perceived safer player out of college.  The margin for error with high schoolers is just much greater.  A high school player who struggles for a year or two still has plenty of time.  A collegian who comes out and struggles, (Tyler Greene, I'm currently glaring in your direction) has a pretty limited window to get it figured out.  

With their next pick, at #46 in the sandwich round, the Cards took Clayton Mortenson, a RHP out of Gonzaga.  Trust me, the reaction to the Kozma pick was mild compared to the rage that greeted this one.  (Again, I know because I was part of it.)  Going into the draft, Mortenson was projected anywhere between the late 3rd to early 5th rounds, and the Cards took him 46th overall?!?  At the time, it was seen as a horrible overdraft, as well as an appalling bit of spendthrift behaviour by our ownership group.  

A couple of months on, the Mortenson pick looks much, much better.  He had an outstanding debut, reaching Quad Cities and posting an ERA of 3.12 just a few months after being drafted.  He drastically improved his statistical profile, (his K/BB rate, for one, improved tremendously, to better than 5 to 1, compared to 3.3 to 1 in college) and started to make a lot of us into believers.  He is a little older, being a college senior, so his dominance does have a bit of a caveat, but pitcher's developmental curves aren't nearly as regular as position players, so it's a little less of a concern.  Some of his improvement with his command has gone to some refinement of his delivery, and also just him continuing to mature physically.  

Mortenson looks as if he could be a pretty serious late bloomer.  He's just now, at 22, starting to grow into his body.  (he's 6'4" and still only weighs 180)  Looking at it now, it looks as if the Cardinals identified a guy they really believed in, and weren't willing to wait and take the chance of some other team thinking more of him than a 5th rounder selection.  He fits the organisational philosophy nicely, leaning heavily on a very nice sinker, and looks as if he may justify the Cards' faith in him.  I'll gladly eat my words if he continues to pitch as well as he has so far.  It appears this may have been a really nice job by Luhnow and company of identifying a player that was worth more than what he was being projected to be.  

In the 2nd round, the Cards took two collegiate righthanders, David Kopp and Jess Todd.  Todd, in particular, had a very nice debut.  He came out of Arkansas, in the same rotation as Nick Schmidt.  Some scouts going into the draft thought he actually had the better arm.  He's got a nice fastball and a really good slider.  Some project him to relieve, but he'll remain a starter for now.  Kopp's debut wasn't as impressive, but a lot of mechanics guys really, really like him.  Chris O' Leary, in particular, has had some very nice things to say about his arm action.  At the very least, he should provide durability, with such a strong delivery.  All in all, I think the Cards did a nice job here in adding two reasonable ceiling, safe bet pitchers.  

In the third, they continued with taking collegians when they chose Daniel Descalso, a third baseman.  I have to admit, I know very little about Descalso.  Baseball America had him as one of the best pure hitters in the Cards' draft report card, so I guess that's encouraging.  His debut was just okay, but it's tough to really decide much on such a short viewing.  

Now things get interesting.  In the fourth round, the Cards took Kyle Russell, a draft eligible sophomore out of Texas.  Like Mitch Canham, a sophomore they took in 2006, they failed to sign him.  Some, who are often accused of apologising for the organisation, point to his spotty record with wooden bats and his strikeout numbers as to why he wasn't brought in to the fold.  Others, who are often accused of bashing the organisation, pointed to his bonus demands as the chief reason.  I don't really know, although the more I look at the situation, I do believe that the Cardinals' front office rift played a role that we may not be privy to.  Either way, I think the Cards lost out on a chance to add a young power hitter with a huge ceiling.  If the money was the problem, I have to admit in being awfully disappointed in the organisation.  The possible return was just too high to let a gift in the fourth round like this get away.  (and if it had to do with the commisioners' slot recommendations, then that's even worse, in my book.)  

The Cards took college players with both of their next two picks, Thomas Eager, RHP, and Oliver Marmol, SS.  Eager seems okay, but I know very little about him.  Marmol is very gifted athletically, but doesn't seem to be a very good baseball player.  

Things got very interesting after this.  In rounds seven through twelve, the Cardinals took, in this order:  

James (Deryk) Hooker RHP
Paul (Tyler) Henley OF
Michael Stutes RHP
Beau Riportella OF
Adam Reifer RHP
Brett Zawacki RHP

This, to me, is where the ultimate value of this draft will be decided.  Of this group, Hooker, Riportella, Reifer, and Zawacki are all high schoolers, and all have very high ceilings.  Hooker was actually a find out of an inner city academy the Cards just opened a year or two ago, I believe.  His arm action is said to be beyond awful, but he strikes out a ton of batters.  If his delivery can be cleaned up, he could be very good.  Riportella is a center fielder with tremendous athleticism.  His speed is well above average, he has nice power potential, and he hit better in his debut than expected.  He's also one of my gut feeling guys.  I don't know why, but I really have a strong feeling he's going to be good.  

Reifer and Zawacki are both righthanders who were both thought very highly of by scouts going in to the draft, but neither was expected to sign.  The Cards gave both of them nice bonuses to get them into pro ball.  To me, this is tremendously exciting.  Two very talented guys, neither expected to sign, and the Cards brought both of them in.  That's how you find players with star potential.  When you have the chance to get them, you don't let them slip away.  I think the Cards may have learned from the mistakes of 2003 on this one.  These two are great picks.  

The other two, Henley and Stutes, are both college players.  Stutes was from Oregon State, he was rated the 100th best player overall going in to the draft, and the Cards grabbed him at something like 275 overall.  Quite a deal.  Unfortunately, they didn't sign him.  Why, I have no idea whatsoever.  Maybe they didn't learn the lesson as well as I had hoped.  Tyler Henley, another center fielder out of Rice, was also considered to be a tough sign going in.  The Cards popped him in the eighth and bought him out of his senior year of college with a seven figure bonus.  Again, I think Henley was much better than his draft position, and the Cards, by being willing to pay for the talent, may have gotten themselves a real steal.  Henley has elements of Lenny Dykstra, but he has more power potential.  In center field, the guy covers absolute acres of ground.  Both Henley and Stutes were really great picks here; failing to sign Stutes, I'm afraid, may end up being a black mark on this draft.  

As I said earlier, this is where I expect this draft to really be made.  In these six rounds, the Cardinals gambled on players with big time talent who, for whatever reason, were still around.  They took some risks here, spent the money to bring the players in, and came away with some very intriguing sleepers.  If none of these guys pan out, it should still be a decent draft, as I think Kozma, Mortenson, Kopp, and Todd should all contribute at some point.  But here, from seven through twelve, is where we could see an absolute mother lode of talent develop.  

After the twelfth, there are a few other players of note.  The Cardinals focused mostly on college players again for the rest of the draft, again, picking a lot of guys who project to top out in the high minors or, at best, see some small, limited time as a role player in the show.  There are, however, a few more sleepers to pay attention to:  

-Steven Hill, 1b, 13th round.  Hill had a great debut.  He's basically the 2007 version of Mark Hamilton; an all bat player whose position is dictated mostly by where the team can get his bat into the lineup.  I will say, though, the Cards did try him at catcher a little this season, I believe, and the results weren't completely hopeless.  Still, he's pretty one dimensional.  I do, however, like to see a team take one or two of these guys in a given draft, though.  

-Josh Dew, RHP, 14th round.  Dew was a college closer and continued in the same role as a pro.  He had a wonderful debut, and is definitely the sort of player you could see get fast tracked.  There's no thoughts of making him a starter or really changing what he does, meaning he'll move as fast as his on field performance dictates.  

-Antonio DeJesus, OF, 16th round.  DeJesus had an outstanding debut, hitting more than expected and displaying ridiculous plate discipline.  I believe at one point in time he had an OBP that was around 200 points higher than his batting average.  From all accounts, he has nice athleticism to go along with a solid, polished approach.  

-Arnoldi Cruz, 3b, 26th round.  Cruz started out his pro career by doing a pretty passable Albert Pujols impression.  He was so good for a while that he was inspiring people to write facts about him instead of Amaury Marti.  He cooled off pretty significantly, but still reached all the way to low A ball and hit .299 overall.  I knew absolutely nothing about Cruz before the draft, and, honestly, not a whole lot more now.  His bat has certainly caught a lot of people's attention, though, and he'll definitely have some eyes on him in 2008.  

Nick Derba, C, 30th round.  Derba was one of the better defensive catchers in the draft, but his bat had never been anything to write home about.  He hit much more in his debut than anyone had thought he would, and still showed outstanding catch and throw skills.  Again, I don't know much of anything about him, but he's worth paying attention to.  Just the fact that he's made an impression, as a 30th rounder, is pretty surprising.  

Overall, this draft seemed to be a nice synthesis of the two previous under Jeff Luhnow.  There were a lot of collegiate, stat driven picks, but more high schoolers mixed in than what we saw in 2006.  Luhnow and co. showed a real ability, again, to pick out nice depth type picks in the middle rounds, and found some serious sleeper picks.  They took a nice, relatively high ceiling prep player who plays a premium position at the top of their draft.  As I said before, there were still a couple of other guys I probably would have taken instead if it had been me picking, but Kozma was certainly a very defensible choice in the situation.  The organisation looks to have picked some pretty strong arms who should move quickly, and, as I said earlier, those picks in the 7th to 12th rounds should ultimately decide how good of a draft this was.  They were aggressive, gambling picks, made by an organisation that was confident they could take a risk without sinking themselves if it didn't work out.  In the end, the 2007 draft was a testament to the two drafts before it.  Luhnow and his cadre had brought in enough depth to feel comforable taking those risks, and they seemed to have learned a little bit of what works from the previous drafts.  

We don't really have enough information, as far as actual performance data, to really make much of a conclusion as far as the true quality of the 2007 draft yet.  As far as the philosophy and the strategy behind it went, though, I'm feeling increasingly confident that these guys really do know what they're doing.  Or at least, they're starting to really figure it out.  

That's it for the draft recaps.  I hope you enjoyed them.  This was actually the first one I had plenty of time to sit down and focus on exclusively, without having to try and do something else at the same time, and I feel it probably turned out the best.  Thanks for reading.  I think next week, or maybe the week after, I'm going to collect all my thought on the whole drafting process and try to come up with an overall set of rules/axioms/directives/whatever.  After that, I probably won't be posting here anymore, as I fully expect job offers to come pouring in from several major league teams.  So long, suckers!