projecting scotty

in the comments to yesterday's thread, somebody asked "what's a realistic expectation for rolen?" my memory's not what it used to be, but i don't recall ever having answered that question properly, ie sitting down to establish parameters that are based in fact. so here we go.

the first thing i did was isolate rolen's stat line after his cortisone shot last july. the shot did yield some temporary improvement vis-vis the mobility in rolen's shoulder; the subsequent surgery (in september) was intended to make that improvement more permanent. it won't restore the lost strength in the joint, but it might make him quick enough to get around on an inside fastball instead of popping it to short. so i'm regarding the post-cortisone period as a rough proxy for rolen's physical ability post-surgery. let's take a look:

under other circumstances, we'd consider that post-cortisone line to be a slump for scotty; as things stand today, it's cause for mild optimism. if the surgery enables him to sustain that level of performance over 500 at-bats, he'd hit 40 doubles and 17 homers, and contribute about 80 runs and 80 rbi. put that together with superlative defense, and he's worth the $12 million easy.

but we're dealing with a small and untrustworthy sample size. to fatten it up slightly, i went back and looked at a couple slices of rolen's 2006 season. you'll recall that his shoulder got steadily weaker over the course of the year; by september he needed a few days off to rest it, and by the end of the nlds he required a cortisone injection (which, like the 2007 shot, loosened the joint and immediately improved his performance). i decided to isolate two periods: first, his post-all-star line; second, the period between the all-star break and september 1, when his shoulder became so weak he could barely play. again, i'm groping for a rough approximation of what his physical capabilities might be post-surgery. here are those parameters:

as with the small post-cortisone sample from 2007, these are batting lines we'd have cringed at once upon a time but would now regard as gifts from on high. per 500 at-bats, they translate into 40+ doubles, nearly 20 homers, and run / rbi totals in the 80s.

as a third check, i looked at the available 2008 projections for rolen (ie, ZIPS, CHONE, and bill james). i pro-rated them for 500 at-bats and lined them up w/ the foregoing stat lines, also pro-rated for 500 at-bats. numbers:

aside from ZIPS, all these lines are singing in harmony --- average of about .275, slugging avg in the .450 range, and run/rbi totals approximating 80. on a just-eyeballing basis, those figures are in harmony w/ rolen's career averages, adjusted for age and health. so i'm thinking they're reasonable expectations. if rolen can perform at that level, it'd goose the st louis offense by maybe 15 runs over 2006 and more than justify the $12m he's getting paid. what it won't do is alter the foul dynamic betw rolen and la russa. but if scotty exhibits a little sock, the cards may get a decent trade offer on him --- and i'm advocating neither for nor against a trade; just scenariating.

items:

• per the post-dispatch, mozeliak expects a lotta trade activity at the winter meetings.
• Hardcore Legend is chasing old baseball footage at his new blog.
• milb.com is counting down the top 50 prospects in the game; no stl players listed between #41 and #50.
• the 1986 cardinals are headed due south; they've lost 7 of their last 10 and are now in 4th place. the mets just completed an early-season 4-game sweep of the birds at busch, exactly as it happened in real life; 3 of the games were decided by 1 run (1-0, 2-1, and 4-3). 21 years later, and that damn team still hasn't learned how to hit. poor old john tudor has a 1.93 era but only 1 win to show for it; greg mathews is winless despite a 2.37 era.