Goold's Article on Card's Shortstop Situation

by FutureMan on Nov 21, 2007 10:05 PM EST Comment 29 comments

Pretty good article summing up our situation.

http://www.stltoday.com/blogs/sports-bird-land/2007/11/shortstop-carousel-spins-again/

After reading i'm starting to think that signing Eckstein wouldn't be too bad of an idea. If Izturis and Uribe are the two other choices then i link i'll take eck. The zone rating is what kid of caught my eye. I thought Uribe was pretty good defensively but his zone rating is comparable to eck's.

I know we've all heard about him wanting a lugo type deal but if Tampa and STL are the only two bidding he is not going to get that. But stay with me here...

I think we could probably meet in the middle with him on a two year deal with a option for a third (if it even takes that). I know many of us are opposed to having him for more than one year but what is wrong with us moving him to 2B after this next year? it seems like many contending teams are wanting him to do just that. so, we use him at short one more year while ryan develops and then move him to 2B when kennedy is gone. are there many 2B free agents coming about in 2008? i guess the one question would be money. the cards have been pretty adamant about giving 4 mil or less to the 2B position (or at least jock was).

Thoughts?

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Goold

It's nice to see a sportswriter look beyond batting average and fielding percentage to evaluate players, and to try to explain more complex ideas to his readers.

by juggler on Nov 21, 2007 10:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I wish there was a stat...

for throws off the base. I honestly believe that if Eck is back, Pujols will be hurt again, thanks to having to constantly stretch for throws off line.

by DiscoJer on Nov 21, 2007 10:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That is also my main concern

with who the '08 shortstop is. Need to not put Albert in harm's way. Seems like it happened way too much this year.

by Edbird on Nov 21, 2007 10:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Albert plays first base

that risk comes with the territory. If he can't handle stretching for a few throws at first, Albert needs to be a DH.

It's baseball, not checkers.

by Jhusk on Nov 22, 2007 1:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And Eck plays shortstop

If he can't throw the ball to the 1B's chest, then he's putting him at risk

by baw on Nov 22, 2007 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and NO shortstop

hits the 1B in the chest *every*time. In fact, that's what makes Albert so great. All the fielders know that if they have to, they can just get the ball in the vicinity of the bag, and Albert'll pull it in.

by Jhusk on Nov 22, 2007 11:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, exactly

for every throw Eck throws too short, another shortstop threw too far to the left or over his head. No shortstops get it on the money every time, most don't at all. Unless we start Ryan, I'll definitely take Eck over the rest of the merket.

On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on Nov 23, 2007 12:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Eckstein

Under no circumstances would I sign Eck for more than one year. Under all metrics, he's an aging, below average SS one can count on to be hurt often. In 2008, he'll be worse defensively than he was in 2007. In 2009, I don't see how a major league team can start this man at SS. Especially one that espouses to be a pitch to contact, ground ball producing team. Mozeliak, man up, tell TLR to deal with Ryan for at least one year and just say NO to Eckstein. If Ryan sucks after playing him for 1/2 the season, we can scrounge up a SS from the bargain bin who can put up Eckstein-like combined defense / offense production.

by jjray on Nov 22, 2007 9:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

2 year deal w/ 3rd year option?

pass. Let's go w/ Ryan. I'm no fan of Uribe but 1 year of Uribe is better than 2 of Eckstein. Let him go to TB or the Angels or Japan if he wants that 2nd year. We'd probably have to give up little in a trade for Uribe. We'd get more by having Eckstein decline arbitration and receiving the supplemental draft pick than the trade would cost us.

by chuckb on Nov 22, 2007 10:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yup...

you hit the nail on the head there.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Nov 22, 2007 7:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just finished reading the article

and there's a lot to like there, but 1 serious flaw. In comparing the PECOTA's for the 3 players (Eckstein, Uribe, and Izturis), he compares Uribe's 50% projection to Eckstein's 60% and 90% projections. WTF?

DG usually does a really good job over there but you'd have to wonder if his job now is that of an analyst or an advocate. You've got to compare apples to apples and using the 50% projections is the best way to go. Sure, Eckstein may hit his 90% projection but he also might hit his 10% -- where was the 10% in your analysis, DG?

by chuckb on Nov 22, 2007 10:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I don't think

Eckstien's arm is strong enough to turn double plays from the second base position. From SS he can manage because his momentum carries him toward first. He is barely adequate from SS but a 2nd baseman has to turn and throw and Eck can't do that against a runner with any speed. one year as a SS if necessary..no more.

by ridgesee on Nov 22, 2007 10:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think he did that becasue

the length of the contracts. He's assuming Eckstein would get at least a 2 year deal therefore what the Cards would want out of him would be much greater. With Uribe, he's a stopgap fill-in with a 1 year deal. Who really cares what he does as long as its simply average.

With that being said, I would rather go with Ryan and whatever he gives us as opposed to asking for Eck to put up good numbers for 2 or 3 years OR hoping Uribe puts up average numbers for 1 year.

This is all assuming this IS in fact a "rebuilding" or "treading water" year in which we're wanting to stay above water until next year.

by Big Red on Nov 22, 2007 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't RTFA,

and I probably won't, but that's not what those lines mean. They aren't relative to the league, they are relative to the player-specific projected means, or 50th line.

Uribe is working on about 1,000 below replacement level at-bats, so maybe Goold should wait for some new numbers that reflect Mario Mendoza as Uribe's new top comp.

by plh903 on Nov 23, 2007 7:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Eck's contract

I think that if we can get Eck to take a contract in which he makes $5 million as a shortstop next year, $2.5 million as a second baseman in '09, and a $1 million mutual option with a $500,000 buyout in 2010...that would be okay by me. That would be a maximum of 8.5 million tied up with him the next three years... there should be a clause for games played (saying that if he misses half the season again, his money gets cut in half...I don't know if you can do that.)

Anyway, just my idea.

stlfan

by stlfan on Nov 22, 2007 10:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

We already have

$4 M tied up in Adam Kennedy for '09. Why should we tie up an additional $2.5 M to have 2 2B who are below average. Jarrett Hoffpauir will be ready, if not this year, than certainly by '09 and should give us everything Kennedy or Eckstein could, and likely more, for much less. There's just no sense in paying another 30-something on the downside of his career to play 2B when we'll have a young player earning the minimum who can do it better.

by chuckb on Nov 22, 2007 12:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

my god

I say just play Brendan Ryan at SS. The SS market is terrible. I may kick the tires on Izturis but how much $$$ would he cost? He was once a premier SS until Furcal came to town.

I would not touch Uribe. He is not a guy the Cardinals would want. I watch a lot of White Sox games and Juan Uribe is a classic guy who you have to watch. Yes he may have a few stats that look good but he is not worth trading for.

Let Ryan start and see what happens. I am worried but it seems like the best option.

by ICbirdfan on Nov 22, 2007 10:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

ryan

and see what is in the rule 5 draft for a back up save money for pitching...

by cm1000 on Nov 22, 2007 11:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

not sold on hoffpauir

he came out of nowhere this year. i'd like to make sure 2007 wasn't aberration before we pencil him as the cards next second baseman. and even if we did go with hoffpauir we'd still have kennedy hanging out on the bench so there is no difference there. i think its a stretch to say that eck would be below average as a second baseman, especially with the bat.

by FutureMan on Nov 22, 2007 2:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i dont see

how 1500 minor league at bats with an obp of .370 and slg over .400 is an aberration. granted, last year he put up monster numbers (.407 obp and .473 slg), but i would settle for something around his career averages from our second basemen.

there is no way that he is worse than kennedy and i would be surprised if he didnt post offense at an eckstein level (decent obp around .350 and crappy power). his power has fluctuated a lot over his career, but his on-base ability has remained consistently solid.

by TaiwanGuy on Nov 22, 2007 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My advice to the Cardinals is to be

very careful about Hoffpauir. There are two recent examples of 2nd baseman that no one thought would amount to much-Dan Uggla and Brandon Phillips. I don't know about you, but I'd be happy with either one of those guys and I think they are both better players than Adam Kennedy is in this stage of their careers.

by jillsinmo on Nov 22, 2007 9:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hoffpauir

He does not have close to Dan Uggla or Brandon Phillips power!

Those two guys are way bigger than 5'9 165.

I understand what you are saying about giving him a chance. He is on the 40 man so he will get a look at ST. With the current situation he will likely be in AAA unless he tears the cover off the ball in ST.

He will get his chance to earn a spot.

by ICbirdfan on Nov 23, 2007 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wasn't talking about power.

I know Hoffpauir doesn't have that. I was referring to the fact that their respective clubs just left them out there for free-they obviously missed something about them and I don't want the Cards to do the same thing and lose out on a useful player.

by jillsinmo on Nov 23, 2007 8:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hope the Halos pick up Eck

so we can stop this speculation. When we picked up Eck after losing Edgar, the rational was that he was better than half as good at far less than half the price. Ryan has a chance that in 08 he will be just as good (or useful) as Eck for a fraction of the price.

There is also nothing to be gained by moving Eck to 2B where he can't make the pivot and lack of range will penalize just as much. Eck had three years here that got him his WS MVP and a couple of all star games. Not bad, now let it go.

If everybody else's farm system has been so much more productive than ours, is it possible that there could be rule V SS available that could make for a good ST competition for Ryan?

Watching the Playoffs as Reigning Champs is not a bad thing.

by Birds on the Bat on Nov 22, 2007 4:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

minor league shortstops

Good point !! Also, try to deal with those teams that are already set at the position. Phils, Marlins, Mets, Rockies, Yanks, Rangers, Brewers...
Look at their minor league shortstops and try to trade... Can we get away from paying too much for a veteran who my be past his prime...

by Cardsman on Nov 22, 2007 6:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yep, I'd also look at San Diego....

Their AA team was named "Team of the Year" by Baseball America, and they are looking to sign Kahlil Greene to a long term deal. Surely they have an extra shortstop or two in their system.

by jillsinmo on Nov 22, 2007 10:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Chris Nelson

SS in the Colorado system.

Might have to move off SS eventually, but worth a flyer (and we need a 2B, also). Has great wheels and good hitting skills. Blocked by some guy named Tulo, though.

by siddfynch on Nov 22, 2007 11:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree. That's what they have to look

at. AA and AAA players that are blocked because their MLB team is loaded with talent...the Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, Indians, and Red Sox always have folks blocked too. And it seems that the Diamondbacks also have more talent then they have roster space for. Make some minor deals to strip some of their excess. That's how Atlanta ended up with Brent Lillibridge.....we should have found a way to get him before they did.

by jillsinmo on Nov 22, 2007 11:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

played at high-A last year

you gotta like his tools but, if he was taken in the rule 5 draft, he'd have to stay on the ML roster all season. He made 31 errors at SS in high A. I'd love it if he was ready, but I don't see it.

by chuckb on Nov 23, 2007 12:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs