NY Possibly Interested in Rolen

by stl tyler on Nov 2, 2007 1:55 AM EDT Comment 48 comments

Per the Newark Star Ledger:

"[The Yankees] need a third baseman and a cleanup hitter, but there have already been discussions on those fronts. The Yankees have held internal talks about how much it would take to sign Mike Lowell away from Boston, or whether the Cardinals' Scott Rolen could be had in a trade."

Now, for such a trade to work Rolen would have to waive his no-trade clause. It's been speculated here and otherwise that he would do so to get away from TLR, but there's no way any of us know that for sure. He doesn't really strike me as a New York kind of guy, but for the purpose of this diary let's assume he'd be willing to do so.

The pros and cons, after the jump.

CONS:

For starters, we lose our gold glove third baseman. His offensive production in 07 was not very good at all, and there are concerns about his health. But if he could perform at even his somewhat unhealthy 06 level in 08, he's one of the best third basemen in the league.

There are no good internal options to replace Rolen at third. Allen Craig is a ways off and may not stick at third, Brian Barden is not a major league regular. If we traded Rolen we'd have to get a new 3B from somewhere else, or we're looking at the Speez as our everyday third baseman. On the flip side, if the Yankees would include Betemit as part of the trade, problem solved. A healthy Rolen he's not, but he's young, cheap, healthy, and capable.

PROS:

Hella salary relief. If removed, the 12m that Rolen is due in 08 would bring the payroll back down to about 88m. If DeWitt is truly open to increasing the payroll to 110-115m, that nearly doubles the money we have to play with this offseason.

Rolen may never really recover from his shoulder troubles. If he goes to NY and doesn't perform near his career levels, we'd look like wizards for getting the salary relief alone, let alone if they traded us anyone meaningful.

So what would it take for you to ok this trade? I would think a pure salary dump reasonable, but this is the Yankees here, notorious over-spenders. I don't think they're going to dangle anything like Cano, Hughes, or Chamberlain, but is it far-fetched to think we could wind up with, say, Betemit and Cabrera? Or Betemit and Kennedy? I would pull the trigger for either deal, preferably Kennedy. Kennedy isn't exactly the front of the rotation starter we're looking for, but adding him would open us up to use Looper as the meat of a deal for a right-handed corner outfielder.

It's all speculation of course, but what are everyone's thoughts?

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Comments

There is no way he will waive his NTC

to go to New York City.

Zero chance.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Nov 2, 2007 2:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

less than zero

No way. If he would, I'd do it for Betemit straight up just to get rid of the salary. We won't be getting Chamberlain (sp?) or Kennedy.

by chuckb on Nov 2, 2007 8:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have a better

chance of playing 3B next year for the Yankees next season, then Rolen does.

And I haven't played baseball in about 7 years.

by joecardsfan on Nov 2, 2007 8:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

goodbye & thanks for the memories

thats what i have to say. if the Yanks want him, they can have him.

he's a shell of his former self. if they take just half of his salary & give us a player who can have a positive impact for 08 i'd be jumping up & down with joy.

it's a nice thought, but i just cant see the Yanks being dumb enough to do it.

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Nov 2, 2007 2:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This would be excellent

Rolen is a major weight on the payroll through the end of his contract...which is, what, another two or three years, right? He's not hitting and I don't think he ever will again.

His $12 million won't buy what it did at the beginning of his contract, but it'll buy SOMETHING and we might be able to get Betemit back (remember that whole youth movement thing?), which would be nice.

In any case, it's interesting to weigh Rolen's sordid relationship with LaRussa against his seeming personality clash with the NY environment.

I'm inclined to believe he would want to stay.

by mojowo11 on Nov 2, 2007 5:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

HL, HC i don't think that it's far fetched

for him to waive his no trade and go to new york. it's a perennial winning team. is it just because he's a midwesterner? there are lots of players from the midwest on NYY.

Future Redbirds

by erik on Nov 2, 2007 8:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I wonder

how well he'd get along with Girardi, let alone the NY press.

Well, let's go to the old mill anyway -- get some cider!

by Alxfritz on Nov 2, 2007 8:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who DOES Scott Rolen get along with?

by SethWestern on Nov 2, 2007 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He likes playing near home

and likes the treatment he gets from the fans. He hated the way the Phillies' fans treated him; Yankees' fans are almost as rough. He's been down that road. Plus, he'd be following A-Rod -- they didn't like A-Rod much but Rolen wouldn't hit 54 homers -- hell, he wouldn't even hit 34, especially w/ that big left-center field alley. It's a bad fit for Rolen.

by chuckb on Nov 2, 2007 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Couldn't have said it better myself. He may hate TLR, but he'd hate the aforementioned reasons more.

by joecardsfan on Nov 2, 2007 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i see your points now

thnx

Future Redbirds

by erik on Nov 2, 2007 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They wouldn't expect him to...

A-rod gets a lot of his crap because he was making 25 mill a year. Rolen makes half that and wouldn't be brought in as a savior...

by joeyart on Nov 2, 2007 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

comment from someone near Philadelphia

I am not sure if what happened with Scott Rolen here is in any way relevant to the situation in St. Louis. The Phillies were run by a bunch of morons at the time (when Bowa was manager, you could pretty much count on the local paper running a story by August saying that approximately 25 players hated his guts), and the front office and manager rode Rolen really hard. He finally told them that he would not resign with them, regardless of how much money they offered.

For whatever reason, the fans took it out on Rolen rather than on the team's management.

by juggler on Nov 2, 2007 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So?

the point was that Rolen likes the way he's treated by the fans much better than he did in Philly. New York would be almost as bad as Philly (maybe worse). Thanks for agreeing with me.

by chuckb on Nov 3, 2007 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Read carefully

Rolen wanted out of Philadelphia because of the team's management. He might not have liked the fans behavior, but he may have been willing to put up with it if he liked the manager and front office.

He may be willing to deal with the Yankee fans if he thinks he will like the team's management.

by juggler on Nov 3, 2007 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

rolen and the fans

I too live in "penns woods" and it was definitely NOT the fans that drove him away. They treated him good. It was only after he turned down an extension from mgmt and basically forced his way out of town did the fans turn on him. As Juggler points out, his problem was with mgmt and the craptastic team they had.

One of my best friends still has a Scott Rolen framed/signed poster hanging in his basement. Ironically, he has some Lindros & AI stuff hanging down there too....its like the Ghosts of Philly Nightmares past. When he puts a McNabb photo up then I know its time Donovan is leaving.

by MrPlow on Nov 4, 2007 10:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

TLR

If the NYY really have an interest, it all boils down to how much Rolen really dislikes TLR. I'm convinced there's a substantial problem in this relationship, otherwise, why would TLR at the news conference announcing his new 3 year deal talk at length about how much he wants Scott Rolen back? The guy is under contract. Why does the coach have to reach out to a player under contract? If the NYY are the only team willing to take on Rolen's contract, would Rolen sign off just to get away from TLR? Interesting topic if there is any substance behind it.

by jjray on Nov 2, 2007 8:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Lets hope...

All we really need is for him to take a cortizone shot heading into spring training so that he has a productive spring and I bet the losers of the Alex Rodriguez bidding will be interested in taking his contract off of us. Mind you it will be a complete salary dump, but it could happen.

by BigJawnMize on Nov 2, 2007 8:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Betemit and Cabrera

would be nice to get, but I don't think Rolen will go anywhere.

by nybirdfan on Nov 2, 2007 8:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

trade

A trade would be a salary dump and the Yankees wouldn't send anything valuable in return. If we absorb some of the salary AND they don't want Betemit anymore, then we would have a chane at getting him.

by Recon on Nov 2, 2007 8:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Our best bet

would be trying pry away a few promising High-A minor leaguers for him - and I would be thrilled to do it. And there are several promising 3rd basemen out there this winter - aside from A-Rod, Cabrera is on the market, Lowell is a FA, assuming the dodgers get one of them then Andy LaRoche (great prospect) will also be on the market. My personal favorite would be targeting either chone figgins or Brandon Wood (STUD prospect with the angels, was a SS but was moved to 3rd a year ago).

I love rolen, but moving him would be a god send.

by jnangle472 on Nov 2, 2007 9:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Here's the real statement to be made

Fuck Scott Erickson's inability to throw the ball to Hee-Seop Choi from 15 feet away.

Cheeseburger in paradise.

by joker24 on Nov 2, 2007 10:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Damn straight!

If that hadn't happened we wouldn't even be having this discussion. Fucking Scott Erickson!

by redbirdnation8206 on Nov 2, 2007 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cintron

I know it was a lesser injury, but that bastard Cintron screwed up Rolen's shoulder in the playoffs his first year with us. That might have made his shoulder more likely to be injured in the future

by brafi on Nov 3, 2007 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

personally i think

the dodgers should have to eat some of scott's salary for that big ogre hee sop choi ruining his career for two years and counting

Come on 2009!

by benstl on Nov 2, 2007 10:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd do it

in a heartbeat, and I'm a big Rolen fan. Even if the Cards didn't get any major league players in the deal, I'd do it for players similar to what Atlanta got in the Renteria deal. The salary relief would be enough to sell me. The Birds could sign Lowell to a 3 year deal worth about what we're paying Rolen and get a lot better production and not a huge dropoff in defense. If they could get Cabrera out of the deal that makes it much easier to deal Duncan for pitching help. If they get Kennedy they don't need pitching help. I don't see them getting either of those two guys, I think janangle has it right: two high A minor leaguers that project as top prospects, use the salary relief to go get a legitimate corner outfielder or replacement 3rd baseman. I doubt the Yankees are going to jump on this, although Rolen does project to put up numbers similar to a Scott Brosius, and they won 3 titles with Brosius at the hot corner, so who knows???

"The Cardinals have won a World Series in THEIR new stadium!" --my Uncle Jim to a heckling Cubs fan

by fourstick on Nov 2, 2007 10:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No offense

but why in the hell would the Yankees give us two of their Top 5 prospects for a 3rd basemen that is just as likely to hit .245 and play 121 games as he is to hit .289 and play 152.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Nov 2, 2007 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The prospects

the Braves got from the Tigers are prime-time. One is a legit #3-#4 starter who can probably fit into their rotation this year. He's not a #1, but he's not replacement-level either.

The other is young but has big-time upside -- he's a legit CF w/ power. These guys weren't scrap-heap throw-ins just so Atlanta could get rid of salary. In fact, most think that Atlanta got the better of the deal. If not, then it's a tie.

by chuckb on Nov 2, 2007 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you misunderstand me...

The Braves weren't dumping salary, they were making way for a prospect to step in. I didn't say that we should get the same LEVEL of prospects that the Braves did, but there's a ton of prospects in that Yankee system, especially in A ball. They can't find a spot for all of them with the big league club, so why wouldn't they deal a couple to take a flyer on a 3rd baseman they'd have control over for a few more years? I pointed out that I didn't really feel they'd give up top talent (Cabrera, Chamberlain, Hughes, Kennedy) for Rolen, but why not kick the tires a bit? Look at what Boston traded for Beckett! The deal worked out for both teams, but I'm sure that they'd like to have Hanley at short instead of Lugo at this point. Bottom line is that teams with large payrolls and good farms systems can afford to take a flyer on a player and may overpay to get him, which has been mentioned in this thread.

"The Cardinals have won a World Series in THEIR new stadium!" --my Uncle Jim to a heckling Cubs fan

by fourstick on Nov 2, 2007 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Yanks might be willing

but they won't give us good prospects. They won't overpay just b/c they have a lot of salary. They gave up shit for Bob Abreu and Abreu had just 1 1/2 years left on his high contract (+ an option) and was a more productive player who hadn't been injured frequently. Abreu was a much better player than Rolen at the time (though Rolen plays a premium position) and they gave up next to nothing in prospects.

This is incredibly far-fetched b/c I'm quite sure Rolen won't waive his no-trade to go to NY but, if he did, and if the Yanks were really interested, the Cards wouldn't get good prospects out of the deal.

by chuckb on Nov 2, 2007 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

different situation

with Abreu. The Phillies basically told the world that they were going to trade him by the deadline because they did not want to pay his salary, and they kept holding out for better offers. Finally, they held out too long, and the Yankees were the only team willing to take his salary.

Cory Lidle was also traded to the Yankees, and if you recall, at that time it was widely assumed that Lidle by himself would have been worth more than the "prospects" that the Yankees traded to the Phillies, but that the Phillies had to give the Yankees Lidle to get rid of Abreu.

by juggler on Nov 2, 2007 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But

Abreu was better than Rolen at the time, signed for fewer years and healthier than Rolen and, good point, the Phils ALSO gave Lidle and STILL got shit from the Yanks. That, entirely, validates my point -- despite the fact that they're the Yanks, they're not going to overpay in prospects just b/c they spend a lot of money.

by chuckb on Nov 3, 2007 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

negotiating 101

The Phillies decided to trade Abreu by a specific date and they told everyone their plan. They had zero leverage with the Yankees.

If the Cardinals are willing to keep Rolen, they have some leverage and may be able to get something from the Yankees.

by juggler on Nov 3, 2007 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Trading Rolen

I would trade Rolen for virtually a low A high ceiling type in a NY second (i.e. read probably for nothing) just to get the salary relief,, but we are talking about trading a guy at the low point of his trade value and their are two schools of thought on that:

Teams would be willing to speculate that he is going to get better - and you don't think so - read As passing on Zito Giants passing on Schmidt - in that case pull the trigger: or
You are at the trough and see Rolen producing at 850-900 OPS next year so no way do you trade him. This would be a highly favorable contract next year. Then you trade him: OR
You get the Dodgers to trade LaRoche and kick in about $12M - That would be my preferred tact...

If he stays I'm cool - If he leaves that's fine as well. I just hope whatever happens he is healthy and productive for the remainder of his career (even if we trade him for nothin he has been a great addition to STL over the years)...

by Lawless on Nov 2, 2007 11:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If they will take him

You gotta do it if the Yanks are willing to take him and if Rolen waives his NTC. One thing I was wondering is if we did get NY to take him who would we have to take Rolens place?
I thought that Joe Crede might be a good fit he might be cheaper then some other 3rd basemen because hes coming off an injury.
perhaps put a package of Reyes and another prospect maybe a reliever for Joe Crede?
Crede is much younger then Rolen I think he has a better chance of recovering from his injury then Scotty does.
I would really like to get Crede on this team what do you guys think?

by Calhoun on Nov 2, 2007 12:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If you dump Rolen and his salary

who are you spending it on? If this team has a $110 M budget and you've wiped out $12 M for the next 3 years, who are we spending the $12 M on?

We are going into 2009 with atleast $30 M to spend. That would give us $42 M. There is the extra cash to throw at Johan Santana or C.C. Sabathia, but do the Cardinals really want to committ $24 M + per year to 1 pitcher reaching the age 30?

It'd be a nice problem to have to deal with, I agree.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Nov 2, 2007 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Taking Rolen's place

We should package Reyes and maybe Anderson to get Andy LaRoche. He's big league ready, he was the Dodger's best prospect two years ago, but he struggled some going back and forth between LA and Triple A. I think he is exactly the kind of player we should gun for - talented guys who have some question marks so we can get them on the cheap. Talent doesn't just disappear, and in his case there would be a huge upside.

by jnangle472 on Nov 2, 2007 12:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If talent doesn't just disappear

than Brian Barden will be great as our starting 3B after Rolen is traded.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Nov 2, 2007 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Playing the Devil's Advocate

there's a decent chance that Rolen comes back in '08 and has a great season, or at least a Scott-Rolen-2006 season (even his "awful" 2007 was worth 5.5 wins, according to BP).

We've gotten spoiled having him over there; it seems a lot of people take his defense for granted. We're going to have to replace a lot more talent than is readily apparent if we move him, and I'm not sure it can be done for $12M.

by SleepyCA on Nov 2, 2007 1:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

His WARP1 was 4

so he was 4 wins above replacement -- WARP2 and WARP3 compare him vs. all-time players and is relevant when comparing him to Brooks Robinson, not to Alex Rodriguez in '07.

And, you're right, there is a decent chance he is an average major-leage 3B next year. But Rolen's on the hook through 2010 -- for $12M per. Though it's possible he may be decent next year, it's unlikely that's going to carry through his age 34 and 35 years. The reason to trade him is to get rid of the $36M still owed to him (+ the option buyout) -- not b/c he'll be as bad next year as he was this.

by chuckb on Nov 2, 2007 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Keep him

I believe you should should keep players with decent bats and stellar defense. These are the kinds of players that should be getting long-term contracts. Even if Scotty doesn't regain his power, he could still nurse a high OBP and run the bases well. And his defense is irreplaceable.

If we dump rolen's salary, what will we spend it on? Expensive pitchers? That sounds like a good way to get absolutely nothing for the money - pitching is very unpredictable. Or worse yet, Bill could just put the money in his pocket.

Keep Rolen. Duncan, Edmonds (ha), Kennedy (ha), Looper, Izzy, Franklin, and Springer are our tradeable players.

by hit and run on Nov 2, 2007 1:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Springer's not going to be traded....

Signing a player who states he's choosing between retirement and your city and then trading him is the way to make sure free agents don't WANT to sign with you in the future because you might screw them over.

Players (usually) understand it's a business, but that'd just be a horrible thing to do to someone.

by mtalken on Nov 2, 2007 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And

there are other reasons not to trade Springer anyway...He's in STL b/c his autistic kid got some pretty good treatment while he was here, and trading him after that would just be horrible for that kid. Yeah its a business, but I'm going out on a limb and saying that having an autistic kid and his father together is more important than 162 baseball games.

by redbirdnation8206 on Nov 2, 2007 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

understood

just saying that, under my philosophy of how to build a team, those are the expendable ones. I see the club being more open to trading Skip, Reyes, and Rolen.

by hit and run on Nov 2, 2007 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It all depends

On what the Cards would be getting back. I think that if the Yanks are serious about getting him, than Ian Kennedy would definately be in the talks. They have Joba Chamberlain, they have Phil Hughes, which is a pretty formidable 1 and 2 for quite some time. They have enough dough to grab up a mid rotation starter if they want to, which is what Kennedy probably is. As far as I see it, if he's not part of the deal than the Cards SHOULD NOT even consider working with New York.

Kennedy's minor league numbers are nothing to spit at: 149 IP, 1.87 ERA, .97 WHIP, 9.97 K/BB, 3.17 K/BB. He'd be a pretty good fit in the rotation.

The other issue is Rolen's health...If the team views him as healthy, then I doubt they would trade him. A healthy Rolen is a hell of a good baseball player, and he'd have to be replaced. Betemit could be a throw in in that deal, but that's a pretty big downgrade at 3rd. But, if there are serious doubts, and that kind of a deal comes on the table, Mozeliak (wierd saying he's the GM, isn't it) really should think about it.

by redbirdnation8206 on Nov 2, 2007 2:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Should say 9.97 K/9

by redbirdnation8206 on Nov 2, 2007 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If we take on some of his salary:

The big question would be: For this next year only or for the life of the contract?

If we could get the deal rbnation states of Kennedy(whose line looks pretty formidable) and Betemit for Rolen, even if we had to pay a chunk of Rolen's salary for this coming season, I believe it would be a good trade for us.

It should be all about opening up salary space for '09 and trying to develop some young talent in the meanwhile.

by mtalken on Nov 2, 2007 5:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hee Sop Choi

I was at the game where Rolen got injured, and I have to say that from not 50 feet away it looked like such an innocent little collision that I would never have imagined this.

It saddens me to think I was there at the beginning of the end for who may be my favorite Cardinal of all time. I've never felt so privileged to have someone on our team.

Welcome to the HOF Scotty, whenever you get there. But for now, perhaps it is time to move on.

Don't sell the farm~

by tripleacabs on Nov 2, 2007 5:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs