Cubs Moves

by kindred on Nov 13, 2007 4:40 PM EST Comment 31 comments

The Cubs have already been pretty active, shipping Jones to Detroit for Infante (and salary help) and Monroe to the Twins for PTBNL. they're switching Dempster to the rotation (thank you, God!), and are apparently packaging a deal to try to get Carl Crawford (Hill + Marmol enough? if not, some deal including Pie, or Cedeno). they're also rumored to be making a run at Fukodome and a couple of Japanese pitchers. if they start Dempster and trade Marmol, i'm sure they'll go after some closer. maybe not Cordero, but perhaps a trade for Fuentes or something.

i've gotta hand it to them. they aren't content with a team that was probably the best in the NL from June till the end of the season. they're upping the ante for the rest of the division as well. the way they are building the team, the Cards will have a difficult time contending in '09 or '10 either, much less '08.

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isn't there a really big

difference b/w Pie & Cedeno? I thought that Pie was similar to Rasmus, while Cedeno has a brick for a glove & can't hit his way out of a paper bag. I know Pie had a down year, but he could get more, due to his once high prospect status.

trade for miggy & the d-train!

by dunc4life on Nov 13, 2007 4:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

oh, i wasn't comparing the two...

... just saying that either one could be a big part of a package. i imagine that Hill or Marshall would have to be included. you're partially right: Pie projects as a total stud, while Cedeno has had some major offensive problems in the bigs. but Cedeno had really strong minor-league offensive numbers also, and the Cubs seem to be sort of down on Pie for some reason. so, it's possible that the Cubs aren't valuing Pie as highly as they might've at this point last year.

by kindred on Nov 13, 2007 4:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pie

A lot of people aren't very high on Felix Pie. Even at his highest value I don't think he would have been close to Rasmus, and he certainly wouldn't be at his highest value now.

"A great catch is like watching girls go by; the last one you see is always the prettiest." - Bob Gibson

by stl tyler on Nov 13, 2007 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

response

Though I agree with you, Baseball America would tend to disagree with you. Rasmus received his highest ranking as a prosect in this most recent years list. Pie was 20+ slots below him, with both appearing in the top 50. But, every year prior to that, including last year, which was Pie's peak as a hyped prospect, he was ranked higher than Rasmus was or is currently ranked.

That is not to say that I believe that Pie is or was a better prospect that Rasmus, but it is to say that according to the experts, Pie at his peak as a prospect was ranked higher than Rasmus is or has been. Ditto for Fox Sports pre-season prospect list.

by mcgrathp on Nov 13, 2007 6:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ok

Per Baseball America's 2007 prospect list, Rasmus is listed at 29. On the 06 list, Pie was 27, and dropped 22 spots for the 07 list. Rasmus won't be peaking at 29--when next year's version of the list comes out you can bet Rasmus will have made a big jump up the chain, I would honestly expect to find him in the top 10 if not the top 5.

"A great catch is like watching girls go by; the last one you see is always the prettiest." - Bob Gibson

by stl tyler on Nov 13, 2007 6:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Long as Pie can pull off his best Vince Coleman

act he will be fine and so will the cubs. THey don't need him to be a core player just a supporting player who exceeds expectations. If he can hit .280 and steal 50 bases while providing above average defense he will give them everything they were looking for not to mention he is cheap.

The Red Blazer

by Red Blazer on Nov 13, 2007 7:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pretty much disagree...

I am handing them nothing.

Getting Crawford is an upgrade, but if it means moving Marmol (who should be closing now that (if?)Dempster is going to the rotation) and Hill -- two young, good, cost controlled players -- their moves this year officially don't worry me. Crawford will be a FA sooner then those two, and Z's arm is ready to snap; dealing their two best young pitchers is insane.

Plus the Jones and Monroe deals already look like classic Hendry moves; moves for the sake of making moves (like the Kendall trade over the summer. Why not just bring up Soto?) If they were straight salary dumps, I'd buy into them, but they weren't.

The Cubs will be competitive b/c they have a decent core and a healthy payroll. But as long as Hendry is in charge of personnel on the North Side and Yost is in charge on the field in The Good Land, the Cards will have a chance at the Central every year.

"Whitey said that '86 was so bad 'the highlight of the season was a foul ball'"

by Alxfritz on Nov 13, 2007 4:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I love it

when people drop some Algonquin on me.

by Irishman on Nov 13, 2007 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cubs seem to be sort of down on Pie

It's because he may be reminding them of Corey Patterson. He was swinging at a lot of bad pitches but he might improve on that he might not.

by Cardsfaninia on Nov 13, 2007 4:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Pie

I know Pie was the highest rated OF in the Cubs system. Now I don't know how he rated compared to Rasmus. I would say the only thing he would have done better was run/play defense. I belive Rasmus was the better hitter....

What you see below comes from Steve Stone. I am paraphrasing some but hitting the main points.

Pie's problem was he flat out could not hit. He could not hit inside fastballs at all this year. I guess the Cubs sent some coach to the Dominican to work with Pie and hitting inside pitches.

It was believed Pie was such a free swinger because in the minors the Cubs hit him in the 3 or 4 hole and let him hack. I guess he had some pop but never really learned to be patient. He was allowed to swing away. Well he gets to the Cubs and they want him to hit lead off due to his speed and he is not going to move Derek Lee or Aramis Ramirez from the 3 & 4 hole. So he has to hit lead off, take pitches, work counts, and bunt. Well he can't do any of the things asked because he was allowed to hack away. Well Lou shook up the minors at that point. He wants guys hitting in the minors where they project to hit at the MLB level. He wants guys to learn to play where they will eventually play. Yes Pie was the bet player on the AA or AAA Cubs but he sure as heck is not better than Lee or Ramirez.

I think the Cubs want to trade Marshall first. I thought he was pretty good, but they are down on him. I think they would rather shop Marshall first then hill if needed. I think both are very good pitchers and they should be better next year. I would be more than happy if one of them is gone next season.

Cedeno, I just don't get it. He doesn't fit anywhere in the Cubs plan. They would take pretty much anything for him if that person is around his age I bet. He is a SS & 2B but they have plenty of them especially since Infante is going there.

by ICbirdfan on Nov 13, 2007 5:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pie

A lot of people here keep posting about Pie as if he has some sort of hella flaw. Guys, he was 22 years old in the majors last year!

Look at his AAA numbers from that same age-22 season:

.362/.410./563/973. Those are outstanding performance numbers for a 22-year old whose claim to fame is "tools." In addition, he cut down dramatically on his strikeouts while maintaining a decent walk rate.

His numbers the prior year, also at AAA, were merely OK (.792 OPS), but again, he was 21. The prior year, he had a .903 OPS as a 20-yr0old in AA. Rasmus had a .932 as a 20-yr-old at the same age and league.

The problem with Pie is that he's been around for so long (on top prospect lists as a teenager) that people have forgotten to keep him in perpsective - he's still only 22!

by siddfynch on Nov 13, 2007 8:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

agree.

i don't see any way the cubs trade him, or marmol for that matter.

by ortic jones on Nov 13, 2007 10:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Would these moves really improve the Cubs

My intrigue here runs to the fact that I dont think that, even if the Cubs bring in Crawford, that they have upgraded their team. If they do get Crawford, Fukudome is out of the picture, since there is nowhere for him to play. There is no chance that the Cubs would move Pie in a deal for Crawford, and beyond that, the Rays already have too many OF (see Baldelli, Upton, Dukes, Young, Gomes). So, most likely Cedeno would be the guy over Pie.

The net of their moves, if lets say the Crawford trade goes through as Hill, Marmol, and Cedeno, would be Hill - replaced by Ryan Dumpster. Jones - replaced in RF by Crawford. Marmol - replaced by Wood?? Dumpster - replaced by TBD.

There is a gaping hole at closer and RHP set up man. This combined with the case required to add a closer on the market or the prospects needed to bring in a closer via trade, and the Cubs have given up a lot.

Now they could foreseeably resign Wood to be their RHP set up guy to replace Marmol. For the sake of argument, I will make that presumption.

I just think from the net of these moves that the team is not improving significantly. Hill replaced by Dumpster is a downgrade. Marmol replaced by Wood is a downgrade. Closer, either trade of FA is costly.

Crawford is an electricc player and one of the best in baseball. But, I do not believe that the improvement the Cubs get of Crawford over Jones is significant enough to justify the holes created.

I would instead suggest the Cubs send Mariano Rivera a blank check and let him fill in the numbers. Go 4 years with him. Will he play up to the contract value - No. Will it be a better contract than Cordero as we look back in 4 years - Yes. Then fill the hole in RF with Jose Guillen, who will give you 25 HR, about a .300 average, and a + defense. The further advantage to this set up is that the Cubs keep promising young cogs like Marmol and Hill.

But, from a Cardinals fan point of view, Put Dumpster in the rotation, trade Marmol as fast as you can, get rid of Hill.

by mcgrathp on Nov 13, 2007 5:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Minor correction

I did not mean to imply that Jose Guillen played A+ defense. I meant that he is above average as a defensive RF, both in arm and range. Therefore he would be an above average/plus player.

by mcgrathp on Nov 13, 2007 5:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeaaah

If they really drop Hill and replace him with freakin' Ryan Dempster and loose Marmol, all the Carl Crawfords in the world won't make up the difference. I'd much rather them give up talent they already have to acquire Crawford then sign Fukudome without losing any talent.

With Dempster moving to the rotation, if Marmol is traded their bullpen is going to be piss poor next season. Well, come to think of it, moving Dempster might be addition by subtraction.

"A great catch is like watching girls go by; the last one you see is always the prettiest." - Bob Gibson

by stl tyler on Nov 13, 2007 5:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the cubs have already improved...

... by playing Soto next year instead of Barrett/Kendall and dumping Jones and Monroe. a starting rotation of Z, Lilly, Marshall or Hill (assuming one goes in a trade), Marquis, Dempster (i could see signing a Silva or Lohse type, or going with Livian Hernandez) would still be well above average, and that offense with Crawford might be the best in the NL, even without improving the other OF position (which would probably be a Murton/Pie platoon or something). i'm not sold on Theriot or Fountenaut (sp?), but surely a decent middle IF can be made of those two + Infante, Cedeno, and DeRosa. assuming Hill, Marmol, and Cedeno all go in trade, their roster then looks like this:

Soriano
Crawford
Lee
Ramirez
Murton/Pie
DeRosa
Soto
Theriot/Infante

with a rotation of:

Z
Lilly
Marshall
Marquis
Dempster/other acquisition

suppose the top of the bullpen ends up as:

Wood
Ohman
Howry
closer acquisition

that looks like a division winner to me. the offense will be close to top of the league, and the rotation will still be in the top half. the bullpen could be shored up in a lot of ways; Dotel, Cordero, and others are FAs. Fuentes and others will be available via trade. the bullpen might not be as lights-out as it was in the second-half of last year, but it will still be very good. i can't see how they don't win the division if it ends up this way.

by kindred on Nov 13, 2007 6:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cubs batting order revised...

Pie
Crawford
Soriano
Lee
Ramirez
Derosa
Soto
Theriot

Travis Lee with this line-up would end up with more RBIs than God.

The Red Blazer

by Red Blazer on Nov 13, 2007 7:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't you mean

Derek Lee? Don't disrespect him like that and confuse him for a D-Ray, even if he is a Cub.

He's a classy guy (seriously)and a helluva ballplayer. And he was on E.R.

there is no secret weapon...there is only Oquendo.

by bukowski on Nov 13, 2007 11:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow, a Cubs fan in the Cardinals message boards

Big cubs fan, eh?? You add Crawford to their lineup, yet discuss the role that Cedeno and Hill will have next season.

With the Cubs moves thus far, they have taken regressive steps. The only area of improvement for the team next season based on moves to date is the addition of Soto as an everyday player, which is not to be considered a move, since he was playing everyday at the end of last season.

My biggest disagreement is with your rotation, which is "well above average" according you your post. I do not believe that an inconsistent 1, coupled with an avereage #2, an up and coming 3, and a terrible 4 +5 makes for a well above average rotation.

Ryan Dumpster, last time he started on a regular basis, had a 6.54 ERA. The season prior to that, he posted a 5.38 ERA. In only one season in his career, 7 years ago, did Dumpster post an ERA not in the upper 4's or worse. In short, Dumpster was a terrible starter, is a terrible closer, and will be a terrible starter again if given the chance. He is likely a downgrade over even Mike Maroth, though in a close duel of suck.

As to the inclusion of Marquis in the rotation at all, I say HAHAHAHA. He will be in the pen to start next season, with the Cubs wondering what they were smoking when they gave him 3/21 million.

Finally, Marshall could be moved in the Crawford deal along with Hill and Marmol, since TB is looking for pitching. But, assuming he returns, I look forward to watching him struggle to another near 6 run ERA, much like last season.

At best, the Cubs have an average rotation. Their rotation is comparable to that of the Devil Rays, far from imposing.

Then, second point, how does giving away Jacque Jones improve the team. Alleged salary relief??? - Jones was owed 5 million in the last year of your deal, your team (apparently) paid 2 million of that. You get Omar Infante back and are obligated to pay him close to 2 million for his .307 OBP and "robust" .662 OPS (Comparable number to that of light hitting Omar Visquel). Total cost savings, about 1.5 million. And to save 1.5 million, you gave away an affordable, adequate 4th OF who can play all 3 OF positions. Hell of a way to improve the team.

Craig Monroe is a moot point. The Cubs should never have picked him up anyways. I am sure that you probably will get as the PTBNL a used towel and a sack of water-logged baseballs. That would be a 0 net-sum deal. You call me if the PTBNL ever sniffs big league baseball

So, I cannot figure out where you are coming from in stating that the Cubs have already improved. Now, lets say the Cubs could have worked Ryan Dempster into the Monroe trade, then the team is improved. But, any plan to increase the use of Dempster is a major downgrade to the team. Still a good team and a threat in the Central, but any argument of improvement is outlandish.

by mcgrathp on Nov 13, 2007 7:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

they'll never trade marmol.

howry will probably close, with marmol and wood setting him up. but, marmol is the future closer of the cubs.

i think crawford is just a backup plan. they really want fukudome. pie will be in center.

by ortic jones on Nov 13, 2007 7:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cubs rotation

Assuming Hill or Marshall is part of a trade for Crawford.

Zambrano - Ace some days, head case other days. One of the best in the league when he shows up with his head screwed on straight, but lacking the mental aspect of what it means to be a true ace.
Lilly - Career year in 07, strong candidate for regression to the mean. More likely to perform as a #3/4 starter than a #2.
Hill/Marshall - Young #3s with upside, I think it's likely that Hill outperforms Lilly next year.
Marquis - Hope our friends to the north are enjoying this contract. Suckers.
Dempster - I thought it was crazy to put Braden Looper in a major league starting rotation. By comparison, the idea of Ryan Dempster in a major league rotation in 2008 goes against my religion.

The only way that rotation is at or above league average is if Hill and Marshall are both in it.

If their bullpen looses Dempster to the rotation and Marmol to trade, they'd have to sign some serious arms to avoid having one of the worst bullpens in baseball. There are some capable closers and relievers available, not saying it couldn't be done. But trading Marmol is, in my opinion, a very bad move for them. He's their Chris Perez, except they know for a fact he's capable of pitching in the major leagues.

"A great catch is like watching girls go by; the last one you see is always the prettiest." - Bob Gibson

by stl tyler on Nov 13, 2007 7:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

rebuttal:

3 of the past 4 years Marquis has been an average or above pitcher (ERA+ of 115, 107, 74, 101). it's more than likely that his '06 was an aberration, and that '04, '05, and '07 represent his true level of ability: just about average. as the #4 in the Cubs rotation, i think they'd be happy with that.
Marshall's ERA+ last year was 119. it seems to be close to consensus that he is most likely to improve, not regress. for comparison, Jeff Suppan's best year in StL he had an ERA+ of 119. Marshall will be a very solid #3.
Lilly did have a better year than expected this year, but not outrageously so. five of the past six seasons Lilly has had an ERA+ over 100 (119, 102, 119, 80, 106, 122). it's certainly reasonable to expect him to perform at something approaching that level again, even if it isn't quite so good.
if you expect Lilly to regress to the mean, then you ought to expect Zambrano to progress to the mean. he had a "bad" year last year, in which he post an ERA+ of 118 (for perspective, Wainwright was our ace last year, and his ERA+ was 119). Zambrano should return to his career average of 130, or even better.
as for Dempster... if the Cubs have four above-average starters ahead of him, then they don't need him to be good to have a really strong rotation. all they need is innings. but, for the record, Dempster has ERA+ the past four years of 112, 141, 96, 99. he hasn't been horrible; he's been fair. and, if you get a "fair" level of performance from your #5 starter, then you're in great shape.

That's without Hill (and his ERA+ of 111 and 119 in his first two years) or any other pitching acquisition.

as for Jacque Jones... he had an OPS+ of 87 last year, and has only been above 100 once since 2003. he is average, at best. Carl Crawford, on the other hand, has gotten better every year since 2003 (when he had an OPS+ of 81), culminating in a 117 OPS+ last season, and is a far better defender.

Marmol was huge last year, no doubt. but there are a lot of plus relievers on the market, and the Cubs have deep pockets. but even without him or a replacement, the Cubs bullpen would be above-average. last year, Wuertz, Howry, Guzman, Wood, and Eyre were all above league-average, and Ohman and Dempster were very close to it. plus, in limited action, Rocky Cherry and Kevin Hart performed very well (small samples, but ERA+ of 155 and 569, respectively), and they've got several prospects who could fill in in middle relief and do fine. in other words, without Dempster or Marmol the Cubs would still have an above-average bullpen. but they'll surely add a Dotel or Linebrink or Cordero or somebody like that.

so... perhaps the best line-up in the league, and firmly above-average rotation and bullpen should make them pretty tough to beat in the Central, which should still be pretty weak next year. whether they get Crawford (or Fukodome) or not they will be formidable. but with him, they are probably unstoppable.

oh, and I've been a Cards fan my whole life. no Cubs love here.

by kindred on Nov 13, 2007 8:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rocky Cherry

I thought the Cubs traded Cherry in the latter half of last season?

by arch support on Nov 13, 2007 11:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

so he was...

... traded to Baltimore for Trachsel. i forgot about that. but i think my overall point still stands.

by kindred on Nov 13, 2007 11:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You won

Wow the Cubs staff can be pretty good. I thought they were pretty good last year but should only get better especially considering big Z had an "off" year and was still about as good as Wainwright.

WOW!!!! the Cards pitching needs help

by ICbirdfan on Nov 14, 2007 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I haven't

seen anything YET that makes me worry more about the Blueboys. Yes, they will contend for the division, but this is still the Comedy Central, folks. The offseason has a long way to go, and so far the Cubs plans seem to reflect our own--replacement parts that are equal to or perhaps only marginally better than what they're replacing--if that. I think they shot for the moon last year with the bloat of Soriano, Lilly, and Betty, as well as re-upping Ramirez and Zambone. Their 300+ million left them seven games better than us. It was enough to win the division, but they were also quite lucky in the health department, which we all know from experience can change radically from one year to the next. So, until they make a couple more Soriano-level moves, which I don't believe they can with the impending sale of the team, I'm not too worried.

They may end up being the favorites going into the season, but if these rumors represent what they actually do, I believe we'll compete with them just fine in 08. As for 09 and beyond, we'll see--but if they don't win it all in the next couple of years, they will be in the fix we're in now (an old team with bloated contracts) and we'll be rid of most of our dead weight. 08 may represent their best chance because we'll be fully back in the fray soon after. Besides, no matter how you slice the pie, it's still a Cub pie. They'll find a way to screw the pooch ;-)

by rockin redbird on Nov 13, 2007 6:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Jacque Jones

I believe this trade was a big mistake for the ole cubbies. Everyone got down on Jones when he had a terrible 1st half. However, look at his 2nd half numbers: .332 avg.,.374 obp., 46 RBIs. You take those numbers away and the Cubs don't make the playoffs.
And what did they get in return, a utility infielder Infante. They already have three utility guys with Theriot, Fontenot, and Cedeno.
This trade appears to be one that isnt based on the numbers or talent levels or production. I believe Hendry was just trying to please the Cubbie fans' wishes.

by stl3bagger on Nov 13, 2007 11:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i think it's merely the prologue for a bigger move

i think fukudome is the likely next signing, with a a crawford-type trade as a backup plan.

by ortic jones on Nov 14, 2007 12:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good point

But isn't it the job of the Cubs management to keep the fans happy? I mean look at their track record:

Kept Sosa about 2 years too long until he no longer had any value.
Ditto with Wood and Prior.
Moving a productive, cheap outfielder (Jones) for an player who plays in a position where your club has great depth already (Fontenot, Theriot, DeRosa, Cedeno)
Moving your closer into a starting role so that Kerry Wood can be the closer; even though he can't pitch on back to back days and will probably never throw more than 45-50 innings a year.
Removing Steve Stone from the television booth after comments he made about the team that were absolutely true, but letting Santo stay on the radio crew even though he made the same comments about the team for that entire season.
Hiring Dusty Baker.

The Cubs organization is the height of hypocrisy when it comes to organizational moves. Although most Cub fans I know would love to see Hendry go, I wonder if he'll fire himself to please the fans?

"The Cardinals have won a World Series in THEIR new stadium!" --my Uncle Jim to a heckling Cubs fan

by fourstick on Nov 14, 2007 11:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Cubs

have something that hasn't come up much on this topic.

Their ownership is still in flux if I recall. Are they going to make some money moves without a committed owner? There has to be some hesitation on their part because of it.

Although, if they got Crawford, they'd be scary good.

there is no secret weapon...there is only Oquendo.

by bukowski on Nov 13, 2007 11:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nothing would make me happier

than to see the Cubs trade Hill. Here we would love just to have a Zambrano, Lilly or Hill and those idiots are thinking of trading Hill away. With that offense, the Cubs would become the Reds complete with their own Aaron Harang and Broson Arroyo. Their pitching made the difference last year. I sure hope they trade some of it away.

by SpringfieldDude on Nov 14, 2007 1:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs