a bit of housekeeping: i've been delinquent in posting all the SB Nation award results; missed both leagues' cy young award winners and the american league mvp. i'll toss those into a diary for your perusal. as long as we're on the subject, jim baker of Baseball Prospectus notes that troy tulowitzki had the 15th-most wins above replacement of any rookie in history (and 5th-most since world war 2) at 10.8. his main competition for the ROY, ryan braun, had the 21st-highest equivalent average for any rookie in history, at .326. both were historically significant 1st-year players; they should just name them co-winners.

from the very young to the very old: i've been musing on jim edmonds lately. if the cardinals are gonna make any serious dent in last season's 100-run negative differential, edmonds will have to account for a big chunk of the runs. at the start of last season i wrote that the fate of the st louis offense might depend on his health; that wasn't necessarily an overstatement. for his first 100 or so plate appearances, which amounted to edmonds' spring training (he didn't get his first exhibition AB until march 25), he couldn't hit and the cards couldn't score. once he got untracked, the offense was pretty good:

obviously he wasn't the only stl hitter who improved drastically after mid-may; no individual hitter could bring about a 50+ percent increase in scoring. but i'm a little struck by how much his line from the last 4.5 months of 2007 resembled his line from 2006. the 99 at-bat sample early last year, which occurred when edmonds was out of shape and still shaking off foot and shoulder surgeries, was pretty clearly an aberration. perhaps the company line --- that a healthier edmonds is poised to bounce back in 2008 --- isn't entirely out of whack. ZIPS projects edmonds to bounce back a ways toward the mean with a .247 / .344 / .440 line; that modest uptick in itself would translate into about 1 extra win in the standings. if he were to exceed that slightly --- say, to .260 / .360 / .460, replicating the level of production he sustained in 2006 and the last 2/3 of 2007 --- the cards would net another half a win. and if edmonds can stay on the field more regularly in 2008 and get 500+ plate appearances instead of 400+, we'd be looking at an offensive improvement on the order of 20 runs --- 20 percent of the cards' deficit from last year.

i don't want to sound too hopeful here; nearly all of edmonds' top 10 comparables at Baseball Reference nosedived in their late mid- to late 30s and never recovered. it's possible he will never be an above-average player again. it's also pretty clear that he can't hit left-handers anymore --- but the happy corollary is that he remains a pretty effective hitter vs right-handed pitching:

edmonds had nearly 100 plate appearances vs left-handers last season; remove most of them from the equation in 2008, and edmonds' chances of posting an .820 ops aren't half bad. and if those opportunities went to a batter who can actually hit lefties, the cards might be looking at perhaps another 5 runs and another half-win --- likely one reason the cardinals (per mozeliak) are looking for a right-handed-hitting outfielder who's more potent than so taguchi. st louis centerfielders posted a .747 ops last year; with a little luck and the right personnel / management, they have a reasonable chance to get something in the .800 to .820 range from that position next season.

what rhb centerfielders are available? one's milton bradley (actually a switch-hitter, but he mashes left-handers), discussed at length here; another is jayson werth, who unless i'm mistaken is a free agent. a third possibility might be ryan spilborghs, who would have to be acquired via trade. this guy's season (.299 / .363 / .485) was only a bit of fluke; it's nearly in line with his major-league equivalents for 2005 and 2006. you can count on a line of .280 / .335 / .450 from this player with reasonable certainty; he's good vs left-handers and adequate in the outfield, will be 28 years old next year and has just over 1 year of service time, making him a cost-controlled player for the next 5 seasons. he's a younger, cheaper version of encarnacion --- and before you gag on that comparison, realize that he's got all encarnacion's good traits (a decent average, a little pop, a little speed, ability to play all 3 outfield positions) but none of his bad ones (a low obp, a 7-figure multiyear contract). the rockies don't need him, and they do need help in the bullpen and the back of the rotation; i wonder if they'd let us have him for brad thompson.

it would hardly solve all the cards' short-term problems to have edmonds producing at 2006 levels, with a competent platoon partner alongside him. but it would solve one problem. it seems safe to assume the team will be from 1 to 3 games better at that position in 2008.

i'm traveling today, so won't be showing up in the comments section till late in the day. don't forget to keep an eye on the readers' top 25 prospects poll at Future Redbirds.