Division Series Sweeps

by Birds on the Bat on Oct 9, 2007 8:24 AM EDT Comment 13 comments

In 13 seasons of this format, with a total of 52 Division Series played, collective wins/losses is 156-44, an astonishing 0.780 clip.
Of 52 series played, 21 have resulted in sweeps, an equally astonishing 40%.
Of the 21 sweeps, 13 have occurred in the NL and 8 in the AL.
Of the 21 sweeps, 8 have involved Wild Card, and are equally split 4-4 between the NL and AL.
Of the 21 sweeps, 14 have been won by the team starting the series with the first two wins on their home turf.

The worst thing to me, is that after increasing the hopes of more fans with an 8 team playoff, so many have to end their season in such futility. These series never test the depth of the pitching rosters, and the outcomes are not indicative of season long performance.

So many good days for ball are wasted before and after the DS, that an extra travel day could be stuck in without too much trouble. The split of games, instead of 2-3, could be 1-2-2. This alone would help the series outcomes be more balanced and in-line according to season projections for play.

I think retaining the best of 5 is better than pushing ball further into November, and potentially including two large gaps between the DS-CS-WS. But the best of 5 format should be improved, and going to a 1-2-2 series would help.

Anybody else?

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They could do best of 7

b/c now they've planned for a ridiculous 2 or 3 days off between the LCSs and the WS. Teams that sweep and LCS may have over a week off before the WS.

The fact is time off makes baseball players less sharp (see 2006 Tigers). This lax schedule with so many days off virtually insures that the most important games will be played when the players are rusty and not 'locked in'.

by cardsfaninmass on Oct 9, 2007 8:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Best of 5 is a good format

no sense in killing pitching staffs even further.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 9, 2007 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Best of 5

with no days off makes the most sense to me, you compete the entire season on a 5 man rotation, why not use that in the post season too? Ok you can use your ace twice if you want him on short rest but really you should be forced to use 4 pitchers even in the first round. If you elect to have only 4 starters then you gain a bullpen arm from the 5th starter as well so you can't really claim to have a burnt out staff.

by StLHugo on Oct 9, 2007 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Unless its a very regional series

that would be tough to do. Flight across the country including airport travel time take at least 5 hours. Even more local flights (e.g. Phoenix to Denver) will take 3-4 hours including airport time. That isn't codusive for good baseball the next day.

The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Oct 9, 2007 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why must we keep tinkering with

this until we get some kind of "optimal" format? What happens if [when] our next brilliant change produces a whole new set of "undesireable" outcomes?

The only changes I'd support would be those that would end the playoffs a little earlier in the year, and of course I would like to see a lot more day games in the playoffs.

Everybody knows what the structure is, everyone plays by the same rules now. If some teams can't win one damn game out of five, that's their problem.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Oct 9, 2007 12:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I hear you

especially considering how much less fun the current playoff form at was than the old one. Other than playoff ticket revenue to teams, I can't think of a single valid counterargument to two seven game series.--one LCS, and one world series.

by Valatan on Oct 9, 2007 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Amen!

As long as everyone knows the rules upfront I don't see a a real problem. No matter what thenschedule looks like it never will be able to resolve the "best team" like a 162-game schedule.

The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Oct 9, 2007 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I prefer

2-2-1 to the 1-2-2 format. This way there is no extra, expensive travel day involved unless necessary for a game 5. The better team gets the first 2 at home and the clincher. Isn't that the way it is supposed to be? If anybody wins in 3 or 4, there is no extra travel day.

How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Oct 9, 2007 2:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The format

is 2-2-1, not 2-3 as stated in the diary.

Free to a good home.

by the red baron on Oct 9, 2007 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he meant

2 straight game days, day off, 3 straight game days with 2-3, rather than home-field.

by jfs on Oct 9, 2007 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Update

Well I did muck up the format, current is 2-2-1 (not 2-3).

Nonetheless, I'm still surprised that 40% of these series are swept. 35% are 4 games, and only 25% go 5 games.

Gratifying at least, the winner by sweep had a better season record 75% of the time. So even if the frequency of division sweeps appears to be higher than expected, at least the "better" team is most often the one that advances to the Championship Series.

Watching the Playoffs as Reigning Champs is not a bad thing.

by Birds on the Bat on Oct 9, 2007 10:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

wildcards in the World Series

So a good chunk of wildcards get swept, and you'd like to change the system to solve the problem of undercompetitive wildcard teams.

And yet a wildcard team has been to the World Series in four of the past five years, winning it twice (BOS in '04, FLA in '03). And last year's wildcard had a better record than the Cardinals, and were probably a better team in any given two-week span other than last October 1-15. A lot of people are clamoring for a seven-game series to solve the problem of overcompetitive wildcard teams.

At the end of the year, only one team's fans will be happy anyway, so why change it?

by taiko on Oct 10, 2007 3:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not what was reported, or proposed.

Wild card teams were involved in the sweeps only 8 times, and were swept only half of those. Not a "good chunk."

Nobody above, nor myself, are "clamoring" for a seven game series. And nobody suggested there was a "problem" with wild card teams.

The observation made is that 40% of all division series are swept. I find that surprising. During the season of 162 games, series sweeps occur often, but I'm quite sure that the rate is no where near 40% of the time, and lower still for matchups between division leading clubs.

Consequently, I felt that the first gateway through the playoffs is not most indicative of season long performance and evenly matched competition. Therefore I considered the possibility that while retaining a best of five format, that perhaps the first two games should be split between the two home sites.

The schedule is established to preserve days for playing a full five games, so if the series is swept, we are all sitting around without baseball for days. I would personally rather that more of these division series went to five games, than the current state were that is the least likely outcome, while ending in only three is the most common.

Perhaps I should have rephrased the question to ask if vebbers prefer the status that division series are more often swept in three games (than either 4 or 5 games long), and consider this to be the ideal playoff result.

Watching the Playoffs as Reigning Champs is not a bad thing.

by Birds on the Bat on Oct 11, 2007 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs