2008 zips are up

by DriverZn on Oct 9, 2007 5:11 AM EDT Comment 15 comments

2008 zips are up. Its ugly. The rotation doesn't look pretty and the offense is worse.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_st_louis_cardinals /

They are, lets just say, depressing.

First lets look at how our 2007 rotation projected.
2007 zips (stats predictions) vs reality.

real / zips
Wainwright: 3.69 / 3.89 (Thats pretty darn close)
Reyes: 6.04 / 3.86 (Whoops, Won't get into reasons here)
Looper: 4.90 / 4.72 (Very close)
Thompson: 4.73 / 4.47 (Also close)
Wells: 5.81 / 4.98 (He was predicted to suck, but he out sucked the prediction)

Zips basically got 4 or 5 right. Reyes failed, we can debate why though thats not the point.

Our best projected 08 rotation is:
Wainwright 4.13
Wellemeyer 4.44 (may revise up in starting only role)
Reyes 4.65 (probably requires Duncan/TLR to be gone)
Garcia 4.65 (if healthy)
Looper 4.84
Thompson 5.15
Pinero 5.28

yuck.

The computer likes Reyes again and also likes Wellemeyer. Thompson and Pinero project to be ugly.

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this is bleak

but it's not surprising, is it

by lboros on Oct 9, 2007 9:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Here is something for ya



              Age  ERA   W    L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K

A.J. Burnett  31   3.79  12   8  27  27   178.0  164   75  20   61  158

Anthony Reyes 26   4.65   8   9  27  26   149.0  153   77  23   45  106

Player Spotlight - Anthony Reyes ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K Optimistic (15%) 3.75 12 8 31 30 173 162 72 21 44 133 Mean 4.65 8 9 27 26 149 153 77 23 45 106 Pessimistic (15%) 5.82 5 9 23 22 119 135 77 24 46 77

Player Spotlight - A.J. Burnett ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K Optimistic (15%) 2.91 17 6 31 31 207 171 67 17 62 200 Mean 3.79 12 8 27 27 178 164 75 20 61 158 Pessimistic (15%) 4.62 8 9 23 23 144 145 74 20 58 117

Basically Burnett's mean is Anthony's optimistic view. If Anthony Reyes could throw that, I'll eat my hat.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 9, 2007 11:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

reyes' mean last year

was essentially the same as burnett's this year; didn't happen, for reasons we've all debated endlessly around here.

he does too many things well to be written off entirely, and if duncan leaves and another coach comes in maybe he will rebound. but i'm persuaded by the diary red baron wrote not long ago --- reyes doesn't exhibit the same ability he did 2 years ago. he doesn't possess the same weapons. perhaps he can re-learn his old approach and produce better results, but he was such a mess by the end of the year i wouldn't place a large bet on that.

by lboros on Oct 9, 2007 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reyes

What do you think we could get for him?

Do you think we should keep him one more year?

I just don't know what value he has. I would just stick with him if we can't get a starter for him. We don't need a bullpen arm, we might as well pray to god he becomes a leeague average starter.

by ICbirdfan on Oct 9, 2007 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, thank you, Lb.

I'm flattered. I still think that's the central part of the matter. It's still too early to write him off as ever being good, but his stuff, and his control/command, have degraded to the point where I think the best bet is to see if somebody else wants to try and rediscover his talent.

On a related note, why does Anthony seem to engender such vitriol? He's just a guy, trying to do his job, and struggling. No need to be so nasty toward him.

Free to a good home.

by the red baron on Oct 9, 2007 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wasn't being nasty.

I'd love to see Anthony Reyes pitch that way if the Cardinals stick with him. I don't think he can and I don't think they should, but I don't wish him ill-will.

The comparision to AJ Burnett was simply because ZiPs posted both of their cards.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 9, 2007 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would say this

I don't think there is a chance of Reyes being traded now.

I wouldn't go so far to say that how Reyes was treated by management caused them to be fired but how Reyes was treated was an example of why there was a split in the organization.

I have said it before and I will say it again. Reyes is the pivot point for the Cardinal organization. What happened before Reyes lead up to him and what happens after him will be because of him. So far it's true.

The injuries and poor rotation choices lead to the use of Reyes when he wasn't wanted and how he was treated, at least in part, lead to the removal of Walt and company.

Again I will say, I am not saying this is good or I like where it is going. Just observing.

by Harknights on Oct 9, 2007 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you might be on to something

here......Duncan, LaRussa, and Jocketty never wanted him here and every chance they got they made negative comments about him, pushed him back to the minors, implied he didn't work hard, was stupid and club owned media did the same. Highly critical about everything-if he got an out it was "luck," if he didn't get a hit, they were critical of that even. It came from the top, because I never heard any of his teammates defend him-because it was evident to them that Reyes was going. No matter what.

No matter how you feel about him as a pitcher, I hope no one forgets that he never said a word about any of it. We can only speculate how truly difficult this all has been for him-and I will always hold him in high regard as a person for refusing to put himself in the middle of the controversy.

Of course, WE put him in the middle of it.....but HE never responded to any of it.

by jillsinmo on Oct 9, 2007 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As far as your main point of their being

a split in the organization, Joe Strauss said that the Braves, Phillies, and Padres all think that part of Reyes' troubles are due to "mixed signals" within the organization... there are those that agree with you on the outside looking in.

by jillsinmo on Oct 9, 2007 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good

hopefully they give us 2 'plus' prospects for him.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 9, 2007 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

On the bright side

We really don't have a top of the rotation projection. However, 5 starters are or are within a few percentage points of league average. A 6th is projected better than the average 5th starter slot (well, as long as the 5th starter's slots didn't vary much from Sackmann's 2006 5th starter findings).

Not much room for error or much depth, but 5 average starters isn't really sky is falling material.

by RedbirdRay on Oct 9, 2007 1:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

that's a good way to look at it

by nycardfan on Oct 9, 2007 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2008 = A long one...

If we win 70 games next year, I'll eat your hat, Hardcore.
Boomer.

by glamboomer on Oct 9, 2007 1:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

mozeliak

or whoever the gm has their work cut out for them, to be sure. time to start thinking about 2009.

Future Redbirds

by erik on Oct 9, 2007 4:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And almost every club is looking for a

pitcher or five; the price will be quite steep in terms of $$ and prospects/players and on top of that most of what is out there to be bought and/or moved isn't the type of pitcher to have much of an impact.

by jillsinmo on Oct 9, 2007 10:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs