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the matrix

Birdos_avatar_tiny by lboros on in News Comment 238 comments

in yesterday's thread somebody asked for a look at the current roster matrix. with the new gm about to begin his duties and the roster rebuild officially underway, i guess we're about due for that. so here it is --- and it ain't pretty:

2008 ROSTER MATRIX
THE BASELINE

STARTING 8 BENCH ROTATION PEN
molina c
$1.2m		 spiezio ut
$2.3m		 wainwright rhp
$450K		 is'hausen rhp
$8m
pujols 1b
$16m		 schumaker
$400K		 looper rhp
$5.5m		 franklin rhp
$2.3m
kennedy 2b
$3.5m		 miles if
$1.2m		 pineiro rhp
$5m		 springer rhp
$3.5m
rolen 3b
$12m		 taguchi of
$1.1m		 mulder lhp
$6.5m		 flores lhp
$1m
ryan ss
$400K		 ludwick of
$400K		 reyes rhp
$400K		 johnson lhp
$400K
duncan lf
$450K		 encarnacion rf
$6.5m		 carpenter rhp
$10.5m		 wellemeyer rhp
$900K
edmonds cf
$8m		 barden if
memphis		 hawksworth rhp
memphis		 thompson rhp
$450k
ankiel rf
$1m		 rodriguez of
memphis		 parisi rhp
memphis		 cavazos rhp
memphis
TOTAL
$42.5m		 TOTAL
$11.9m		 TOTAL
$28.4m		 TOTAL
$16.5m
OVERALL PAYROLL: $99.3m

i triple-checked the numbers, and they add up --- $99m already on the books, before a single upgrade to the roster has been made. this chart assumes that the cards pick up the option on taguchi (which might not, and prob'y should not, happen). the cards have four arb-eligible players --- molina, ankiel, miles, and wellemeyer --- so i've taken educated guesses at what they'll be paid. pujols, carpenter, looper, encarnacion, kennedy, and mulder all have built-in raises this year, while springer and franklin will start new, richer contracts; taken together, these increases bloat the payroll by about $11m without adding any new talent. the matrix counts deferred salary as a present-year expense, because that's how mlb calculates payroll for luxury-tax purposes.

for purposes of comparison, the opening-day rotation last year (carp looper wells wainwright reyes) cost a total of $18m; the starting 8 cost $48m; the bench made collective $5.5m; and the bullpen made $14m. this year's high bottom-line salary for the bench players is misleading, as it includes an ostensible starter (encarnacion); but then, the starting 8 total is commesurately lowered by juan's absence. (the matrix needs a separate category this year for non-performing assets --- en'cion, carpenter, mulder.) the two injured starting pitchers (mulder and carp) will earn nearly as much as 2007's entire opening-day rotation.

if i recall correctly, dewitt says he's willing to increase the bottom line into the $110m to $115m range, which means there is $10m to $15min left in the till for a new ss, #2 starting pitcher, and right-handed bat for the outfield. . . . . they could trim a million here or there, but unless they move scott rolen i don't see a whole lot of wiggle room until 2009, when they'll net a payroll savings of more than $30m. by then, there'll be some players on the market who might even be worth the money.

not an easy knot for mr. antonetti to untangle; he'll have to be creative. ideas, anyone?

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$100 Million
Dang!?, $100 million sure doesn't buy what it used to be.

by DimitroffVodka on Oct 30, 2007 9:39 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

thanks lb
you just made me sick, i hadnt done a quick and dirty, so i had no idea we were that close to $100m already

also, you didnt put a backup catcher, so you may as well say $100m right now

and i agree with you, there are no easy slashes to get more flexible in '08

Pujols is the greatest Cardinal in my lifetime.

by bigcardsfan5 on Oct 30, 2007 9:40 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I was going
to ask why a back-up catcher wasn't figured into this matrix, but you beat me to it.  

by cardsgirl95 on Oct 30, 2007 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ugly ugly ugly
It's really the same team we started with last year, minus the contributions that Carpeneter and Encarnacion make on the field, and with Pineiro substituted for Wells.

And I agree that there isn't much, other than dumping Rolen, they can do to  make it much better.  Even non-tendering Miles and letting So walk only saves a couple of million . . . which probably doesn't get them to a difference-maker at any of the three positions you mention.

Any way to account for the portion of Carp's contract that insurance will cover? If it covers, for example, half, that gives us up to $20m to spend, which makes the situation seem at least a little less desperate

by tdawg on Oct 30, 2007 9:41 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

speaking of insurance
I'd like to think that En'cion's $6.5 mil would mostly be covered due to the injury he sustained.  Covering half would give us another $3.25 to play with.  If it covered 80% (that's what my insurance covers - just as a starting point), it would give us another $5.2 mil in the pool.

by SmashedAtoms on Oct 30, 2007 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm pretty sure Enc's contract isn't insured
from what I've read, the only contracts that get insured are the huge ones, especially for pitchers.  The premiums on injury coverage for athletes are ridiculously high.  So, it's unlikely that an average position player contract (like the $15m contract Enc signed) is insured.

by tdawg on Oct 30, 2007 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dayton Moore
actually told me that very thing in person, about a month ago...believe it or not.

by Toddius396 on Oct 30, 2007 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don't count on Carp's insurance money
I think it was in one of Strauss's chats where it was revealed that the Cardinals do not count the insurance money towards the payroll.  Their reasoning behind this is that they don't count insurance premiums towards the payroll.

by outraged on Oct 30, 2007 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that's just an accounting practice
they could change that at any time -- and I'm sure they've never received a benefit this big on an insured contract

by tdawg on Oct 30, 2007 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It is counted
just, not so you'd notice.

Look at the increase in payroll.  Carpenter makes $10.5 M next year.  How much is payroll going up over the final cost of the 2007 payroll?  Roughly the same amount.

DeWitt isn't really raising payroll, he's just replacing what he's getting from Carpenter's insurance.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 30, 2007 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That is ugly
And that is the reason 2008 must be a rebuilding year, securing talent that can be coupled with payroll flexibility after 2008 to put a winner on the field in 2009.

That said, there are places to cut:

Miles and Taguchi are the two easy places to start since replacement players like Hoffpauir and Skip are already around.

That Springer contract at 3.5 million really hurts and is likely un-movable. The Franklin contract at 2.3 million, however, is very trade-able, especially to a team looking for bullpen help (Indians, D-Backs, Braves).

Ankiel at $1 million might be a bit too expensive to keep around. Maybe you can couple him with Franklin and bring back a decent player (a mid level starter) in return.

At 450k, Duncan is far to valuable to be traded away, but Reyes is still a steal and provides some nice value to a team. What would it take to send Reyes to the D-Backs for Carlos Quintin? Two young talents with injury and performance problems.

A few moved to bring together a 2009 outfield of Duncan, Rasmus, and Quintin would go a long way to providing the Cards with a cheap but productive team in 2009 (and lots of payroll flexibility to add a major starting pitcher).

by JMedwick on Oct 30, 2007 9:53 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

ankiel
at 1 million looks like a bargain to me
the power he can supply at anytime, even off the bench and his rocket arm

if he were a free agent, im figuring 5 mill wouldnt be hard for him to get

how many people did he hold to a single that should have been a double in his 7 weeks

RESIGN JIMMY BALLGAME....HE SHOULD RETIRE A REDBIRD!

by benstl on Oct 30, 2007 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes and no
Ankiel is not a value if you can bring in someone like Quinten or Ludwick for 400k.

by JMedwick on Oct 30, 2007 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ludwick's not really a starter...
He had a nice year last year, but he pretty much proved he can't hit lefties.  While Ankiel didn't play enough to prove he can, he had quite a bit of success agains them, enough to think he can be a full time starter (if he can be healthy)

by DiscoJer on Oct 30, 2007 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No
Reverse platoon splits have been shown to have no predictive power.  Why exactly would Ludwick be inherently unable to hit lefties?  Is seeing the release point easier really going to hurt his ability to make contact?

The reason for his career splits (Aside from chance) is pretty simple, actually: A lot of his ABs vs. lefties have come pinch-hitting or in late innings, which brings down everyone's numbers.  FYI, he hit .387/.444/.871 vs. lefties in his limited time at Memphis last year.

by cpebbles on Oct 30, 2007 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ugh
Trading Rolen seems like a serious option.

I wonder if a desperate (and rich) Yankees team would take him off our hands for Wilson Betemit. The average St. Louis fan would hate that trade, but we've gotta cut some payroll somewhere, and Rolen really isn't worth 12 million, even with the defense. Especially considering his relationship with Tony. Betemit could fill in until we sign a more premier third baseman (we don't have anyone very close in the farm). Let's not forgot that Rolen 12m doesn't go away for three more years either.

12 M could buy a pretty decent starting pitcher, probably through trade.

by joshuadivine on Oct 30, 2007 10:02 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Bad if not impoosible idea.
Why would anyone else want Rolen for $12M?

Rolen's value is at an all-time low.  Basically given his contract and injury status, he has negative trade value.  We should keep him and hope he comes back to some degree in '08.

The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Oct 30, 2007 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What aboutt...?
If Rolen is traded ($12 million off the books) for minor leaguers and we are having a legit rebuilding year where we don't care if we finish 70-92 or 65-97, what about having an infield of:

1B - Pujols
2B - Kennedy/Miles/Hoffpaiur
SS - Ryan/Miles
3B - Barden/Miles/Hoffpaiur

That's 6 guys for 4 positions, much like it has been in the past.

That would make Spiezio and his $2.3 million available for trade as well.  We might get an older A-ball prospect (or something comperably little) for him.

Assuming we allow the OF to consist of Edmonds, Ankiel, Ludwick, Duncan, and Schumaker, that takes Taguchi's $1.1 million away as well.  Overall, the savings would be at $15.4 million (minus Barden's salary and the salary of a backup catcher TBD.)  We're looking at $14 million there and the $10-$15 Dewitt is willing to spend.

24-29 million dollars is a lot of money to spend on a starter that can make an impact (Livan Hernandez, Curt Schilling, Tom Glavine, Josh Fogg - if his contract was not picked up).

I dunno...just kinda typing my thoughts of the moment.

stlfan

by stlfan on Oct 30, 2007 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Barden
is not a major league starter and never will be.  

by Toddius396 on Oct 30, 2007 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rolen's Market
Is there much of a trade market for a guy like Rolen?  Perhaps at the deadline if he has proven himself healthy and productive, but not right now. Contract + shoulder = a team would be nuts to acquire him in the offseason.

As for the Yanks, B-Cash doesn't make moves like that anymore and I doubt the Steinbrenner Sons would force his hand.  Betemit is young w/ upside and the Yanks are committing to a more youthful look.

I think a more likely trading partner would be the Dodgers.  And on that front, I note that Mr. Matt Kemp has fallen out of disregard and is on the block:

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-plaschke26sep26,1,2152526,full.column?coll=la-headlines-sports

by MrPlow on Oct 30, 2007 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

and with regard
to the Dodgers, we would probably have to eat  part of Rolen's deal or include Anthony Reyes in order to get Kemp. That's my take anyway.

by MrPlow on Oct 30, 2007 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe
we could get Andy LaRoche?  They also have another good 3B prospect in Blake DeWitt - former high school first rounder from Sikeston, MO.  LaRoche is could play for us right away if the Dodgers don't want him playing for them.

by Toddius396 on Oct 30, 2007 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

LaRoche/Kemp
I would love to get either.  But I just don't see the Dodgers taking Rolen in a deal. Maybe I'm wrong....

by DenverCardsFan on Oct 30, 2007 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Word on the street
is that Torre is thinking of going to LA.  We know how much Torre likes his high priced former stars (or at least his employers did)...maybe they would want Rolen if we don't think he's coming back strong.

stlfan

by stlfan on Oct 30, 2007 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Plaschke
is a moron and you shouldnt assume that just cause he is ranting for trading their best prospects that it will happen or that Colletti has the same thinking. If he does they shouldnt fire only Grady Little but him as well.

by FunkeeC on Oct 30, 2007 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Plashcke
might be a moron, but i don't believe he is the only one that has reported the Dodgers are displeased with Kemp.

by MrPlow on Oct 30, 2007 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Encarnation
Does anyone know if his contract is insured?  I know that front line starting pitchers usually have insurance on their contracts, but I don't know if that goes down the line with position players.  If he retires, does that money count against the cap?
Jimmy steps in to lead off the bottom half of the inning... with nobody on base... It could happen... just not tonight.

by Hollywood15 on Oct 30, 2007 10:03 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

why in the world would he retire?
It's very likely that he will never get another contract to play baseball again -- why would he leave $6.5 million just sitting on the table?

by tdawg on Oct 30, 2007 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Retire? He got injured on the
FIELD during a game.  If the Cardinals do anything other than honor the contract, I'm done with them.  It appears the man will never play again and he will never have proper vision either.  The Cardinals are morally responsible for the remainder of the contract-and it's safe to say Juan's going to need that money to live the rest of his life.

by jillsinmo on Oct 30, 2007 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Looper
Could he be moved? Clears up 5 million and helps clear our glut of #5 SPers.
Well, let's go to the old mill anyway -- get some cider!

by Alxfritz on Oct 30, 2007 10:06 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think Loop has potential to be....
a #3 starter. Last year was his first as a starter and he had to deal with some conditioning issues. He should be better this year. I hope.
The Red Blazer

by Red Blazer on Oct 30, 2007 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ideas?
Dump Miles and Taguchi, replace with Schumaker and Barden.

Savings: $2.3 M

Trade Looper and Ankiel

Savings: $6.5 M

Total Savings: $8.8 M
Total Availible: $18.8 M

Needs: #2 Starting pitcher, impact bat (OF or SS)

Rotation
Wainwright
EMPTY
Pineiro
Mulder
Thompson/Johnson/Wellemeyer/Boggs

If we trade Ankiel, it opens a hole up in one of the OF spots.  We can either fill that hole with an impact bat or fill the hole at SS with an impact bat.

Can you get a frontline starter and an impact bat for $9 M each/avg?

Well, as much as I dislike him being a Cardinal, you could:

Anthony Reyes, Bryan Anderson, Joe Mather and PTBNL for Jason Bay and Jack Wilson.

Might have to throw in another pitcher going the other way.

Wilson makes $6.5, $7.25 and has a $600k '10 buy out.

Bay costs $5.75 and $7.5 M for 08 and 09.

They increase the payroll by $11.25, leaving you $7 M (or $12.55 in a $115 M payroll) to get a starting pitcher.

Why does every deal involve fleecing the Pirates? :D

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 30, 2007 10:09 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Forgot to repair the lineup

Kennedy 2B
Edmonds CF
Pujols  1B
Duncan  RF
Bay     LF
Rolen   3B
Molina   C
Pitcher  P
Wilson  SS

Not that much better, but a start in the right direction...sorta.

Remove Wilson from the deal, leave Ryan as the leadoff hitter/SS.  Save more money to spend on pitcher.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 30, 2007 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i agree
i think we should be aggressive with pittsburgh right now about jack wilson

jason bay might come too expensive if minnesota really would give up matt garza for him

Come on 2009!

by benstl on Oct 30, 2007 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The only reason
for the Cards to take on the dead weight that is Jack Wilson is because the Cards are getting Jason Bay. Wilson, on his own "merits," would not improve the Cardinals and should not be traded for.

by JMedwick on Oct 30, 2007 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wilson is a very good defensive SS
I agree, with the payroll contraint we have, simply taking on Jack Wilson isn't going to improve the team.

The ZiPs projections for both:

PLAYER  AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K  

Bay    .265  .361  .478 154 565  92 150 32  2 28  89  81 149
Wilson .261  .313  .361 141 518  62 135 24  2  8  42  36  54

Neither spectacularly amazing.  But if you can fill the need at SS and the RH OF bat at the same time, might as well try.  

Wilson was 4.5 BtRns and 0.4 BtWin last year.
Eckstein was -3.2 BtRns and -0.3 BtWin last year.

Man, Eckstein truly was AWFUL.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 30, 2007 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Even with Wilson's glove
I have a hard time believing that Ryan (or some other SS) couldn't put up those same numbers offensively without costing over 14 million in the next two seasons. Taking the salary of Wilson off the Pirates hands is part of the "value" the cards would be trading to the Pirates in any deal for Bay. Without getting Bay, the cost of Wilson is too high at anything other than the most marginal prospect.  

by JMedwick on Oct 30, 2007 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

wilson is far above...
average defensively and can play rings around david at that position
Come on 2009!

by benstl on Oct 30, 2007 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jack Wilson
is no better than Brendan Ryan, or only marginally better, for $6 M extra.  That's exactly the kind of transaction we DON'T need to make.

by chuckb on Oct 30, 2007 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Based on what?
how about a comparision.
"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 30, 2007 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

lol
cause they've been in perpetual rebuild mode since the 70s.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Oct 30, 2007 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

on ankiel again
i dont think you can put a value on his defense
we wouldnt trade yadi to save 600k
i think its basically the same thing
this guy has larry walkers arm in RF

i dont think you get near his potential for close to his salary

RESIGN JIMMY BALLGAME....HE SHOULD RETIRE A REDBIRD!

by benstl on Oct 30, 2007 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure you can
You can put a value on anything (in fact, isn't that the idea behind salaries?). Anyways, the question you have to ask is what is the different between Ankiel and his cost and that of someone like Ludwick or Quinten and their costs. For the extra 600K (Plus the opportunity cost of what Ankiel would bring back to the Cards in a trade), I think that the trade return and one of the other young outfielders is a better value combo for a club short on cash.

by JMedwick on Oct 30, 2007 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Defense?
Yes he has a rocket arm.

Unfortunately, he also takes Encarnacion routes to balls on occassion.

An arm does not a good defensive player make.

by RedbirdRay on Oct 30, 2007 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yes
but a persons Arm is a tapped out resource and will not improve noticeably.  His routes and tracking can and will improve especially with Jimmy out helping him.  They can bring in Walker to assist too.  I think Ankiel will be a great defensive OF in time.  

He's like Happy Gilmore, he already posses leaps above everybody else in the hard part, now work on his short game.

"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Oct 30, 2007 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

BTW
You would trade Yadi to save 600k if you have a young talented catcher coming up (maybe it will be Anderson) and can move Yadi to fill a talent hole at another position.

by JMedwick on Oct 30, 2007 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You can also trade Yadi
if your entire IF is left handed and you need a RH bat in there somewhere.
"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 30, 2007 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Additionally
Yadi is respected and a decent trading chip.   He has significantly more value than a Reyes, middle reliever, etc.

I like Yadi and would miss him, but he might be one of our best trading options.  

by RedbirdRay on Oct 30, 2007 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yadi ain't goin'
NO-WHERE! TLR and Dunc rely on their catchers for their "game-plans" as much as they do their starting pitchers.

Unless Anderson is the second coming of Ivan Rodriguez with the bat (which has yet to be proved), trading Molina weakens the team... you need his arm/defensive skills to keep the double play in order for your "groundball" pitching staff.

Let the new GM address the team's most pressing needs first; then take whatever money's "left over" to fill out the bench. (I was of the opinion that Gooch was without a contract for 2008... if he is, I doubt the Cards re-sign him.)

"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra

by The Ol Goaler on Oct 30, 2007 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What?
"Unless Anderson is the second coming of Ivan Rodriguez with the bat (which has yet to be proved), trading Molina weakens the team"

Wouldn't that depend on the return?  What if it netted a proven young ace?

I agree that moving Yadi wouldn't make Tony very happy, but by next year he'll be arb eligible and start to get expensive.

He'll still be quite valuable and you very well could have a young, cheap replacement ready.  It makes alot of sense to at least entertain the idea.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 30, 2007 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's just not true
"Unless Anderson is the second coming of Ivan Rodriguez with the bat (which has yet to be proved), trading Molina weakens the team... you need his arm/defensive skills to keep the double play in order for your "groundball" pitching staff."

The number of runs he saves the Cards, his defensive reputation notwithstanding, is somewhere on the order of 15-20 per year -- that's no more than 2 wins.  It won't be long until Anderson's offense is 2 wins better than Yadi's.  Trading Molina does not weaken the team if he's replaced by an above-average (for a C) offensive player UNLESS Yadi significantly improves his offense.  He's going to have to do that, and quickly, to justify remaining a Cardinal.

by chuckb on Oct 30, 2007 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well,
at least there's an indication that he might be capable of that--his second half OPS was a full 100 points higher than his first half.  If he can add another 50 points and get it up to .800, he's one of the better catchers in the majors.

by Valatan on Oct 30, 2007 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yadi stays
When Bryan Anderson is major league ready, trading Yadi becomes a possibility, maybe.  That's at least two seasons away.  What good is trading Yadier and saving 600k and then not having a catcher?  You're not going to find another catcher on the FA market for cheaper than that.
"A great catch is like watching girls go by; the last one you see is always the prettiest." - Bob Gibson

by stl tyler on Oct 30, 2007 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

2 years?
Could be 2 years.

However, if he starts at Memphis (and he very well could) and goes on to hit .290/.360/.420 with improved defense...he'd be knocking on the door.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 30, 2007 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not yet
Yadi will get expensive next year or the year after.  Anderson's not ready yet but he's not far away.  It's a little early to trade Yadi as the marginal benefit you gain is much smaller than when he gets more expensive.  That time should come -- whether or not the Cards will go that route, I've got my doubts.

by chuckb on Oct 30, 2007 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like this idea
I agree the only way you are going to get Bay is if you take on Wilson's contract.  This fills the hole at SS and gives you a solid bat in the outfield.  Also in two years, you can buy out Wilson's contract, and use that extra money to re-invest in Bay, or go after another free agent OF using the $$ from Bay and Wilson's expired contracts.  I don't think this cripples you for the future, bc there are still a lot of contracts coming off the books after '08, and it allows you to not have to shop for a LF/RF (wherever they play Bay) or a SS next year.  We can devote more $$ to pitching, and then hopefully by '09 or '10 we will have someone within the organization to take over the SS duties.  I guess we'll see.  I just think the Twins are going to beat us to the punch and get Bay.

by joecardsfan on Oct 30, 2007 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

are the pirates
still "fleeceable"?(if that's a word).  Littlefield is finally collecting unemployment.

by MrPlow on Oct 30, 2007 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

no, they are not
they hired neil huntington, the other cleveland ex-assistant. but at least antonetti and huntington are friendly, so i could envision some future deals in the future between the two.
Future Redbirds

by erik on Oct 30, 2007 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

future, future, future
i need to use the preview button
Future Redbirds

by erik on Oct 30, 2007 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

haha
make a note of it for the future.

by dontEATnachos on Oct 30, 2007 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's assuming
the Cards ever get around to naming Antonetti the GM.  It seems like the longer this drags on, the more it favors (gulp!) Mozeliak.

by chuckb on Oct 30, 2007 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lack of Pitching is what hurt us last year...
You could see Rasmus up or Mather in mid year ala Ryan,shumacher,Ankiel in 2006 to provide an offensive boost. Pitch these guys...

Wainright
Willis   = Reyes, Anderson...
Mulder
Piniero
Looper

I think that is all it would take. I do understand we need to go over Willis with a fine tooth comb so we don't end up in another Mulder type trade. Also if Mulder doesn't make it bring up one of the kids from the farm system an slide Looper into the 4th spot. Bullpen looks good and hopefully Kinney will be back and effective. If you really want to move Rolen go for it but I think a full year of Ank/Luds coupled with more at bats for Duncan will repair the offense regardless of what Rolen does. How about Duncan & Rolen to the Dodgers for a young 3B prospect?

The Red Blazer

by Red Blazer on Oct 30, 2007 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Willis?
Please stop with the Willis talk people...please
"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 30, 2007 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There are so many reasons to pass
on Dontrelle Willis-he hasn't pitched well for awhile now, he has a big contract already, his flaws are with delivery, not something that Mr. Duncan has had success with, and he has the biggest toothy smile you have every seen-and he even smiles when he's on the mound, even sometimes when he's losing.  No smiles allowed.  Only Albert gets to smile on the ball field.  He can't come here.  He just can't.

by jillsinmo on Oct 30, 2007 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why?
his peripherals last year weren't all that bad and it would be buying low.  His trade value has never been lower so, if it's going to be done, now is the time to do it.  He's not the ace he was made out to be a couple of years ago, but he is probably a #3 starter in an average rotation.  He would, instantly, become the Cards 2nd best starter as long as Carp is hurt.

by chuckb on Oct 30, 2007 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Didn't you read my post........
he SMILES when he's on the baseball field.  He is a ray of sunshine.
He made 6million + for 2007 and his mechanics are bizarre.  I just don't see him as being the kind of pitcher that Mr. Duncan can help.  And you would be putting him on a team that expects a lot, and he would be the only African-American on the team.  Nope.  I want to see Dontrelle smiling when he's pitching.  I can't see that happening to him here. Poor fit for so many reasons....seriously, I wouldn't see him lasting through the year here.

by jillsinmo on Oct 30, 2007 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jeez Jill...
give it a rest w/ the smiling nonsense.
Well, let's go to the old mill anyway -- get some cider!

by Alxfritz on Oct 31, 2007 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That DOES rub those in current
management the wrong way. Dontrelle has a smile that should show up in toothpaste adds....people here don't like that....(not me, though)

by jillsinmo on Oct 31, 2007 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No
Tony doesn't like Brendan Ryan smiling on the field b/c he's flighty as hell -- him saying Ryan was smiling too much was a way of saying he (Ryan) doesn't take his job seriously enough; which from many accounts seems to be true. That's the only time this smiling nonsense has ever come up and it's the only place your getting it from.
Well, let's go to the old mill anyway -- get some cider!

by Alxfritz on Oct 31, 2007 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Buying low?
I'm not sure how you came to that conclusion.  Sure he isn't untouchable anymore, so I guess you can say it will take less to get him.  However, he is still going to command a either a glut of top prospects or cheap major league ready players.  He'll cost a fortune in terms of talent.

Peripherals? His Whip was 1.60, he gave up 29 dingers, and his K:BB fell below 2 to 1.  Opponents hit .294 and OPSed .840 off of him.  His BABIP was a little high at .328, but when your GB rate drops and your LD rate rises...that's bound to happen.  The guy was pounded this year, and has been declining since he came in the league.

He's a gimmick pitcher.  Looks like the league is catching on more and more.  Not to mention it's been reported he has shoulder problems, although he denies it.

Nope.  It'd be foolish to pay the king's ransom the Marlins will demand.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 30, 2007 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Impact bat?
Doesn't Ankiel have an "impact bat" - particularly at a cost of $1 M?

by HalfMagic on Oct 30, 2007 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That really is a bad team
and signing Eckstein will only make it worse. Hopefully Antonetti will make the right decision on that one (being the numbers/contracts guy that he is, it shouldn't be a hard decision to make)

Trading Rolen to the Yankees makes a ton of sense but I just don't see it being very probable. I can't even see them making a Rolen for Betemit swap (unless we took on a hefty chunk of the salary, defeating most of the purpose anyway). What did the Yanks give up for Betemit last season anyway?

Assuming Eck is not resigned and Rolen is not traded, the only way I can see to upgrade the team that is even halfway possible would be to trade Duncan for Burnett/Garland and sign Milton Bradley to take Duncan's place. Significant upgrade to our laughable rotation without a significant downgrade on offense.

by KoryWiu14 on Oct 30, 2007 10:14 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Who does trading Rolen
to the Yankees make a ton of sense for?

The Yankees could get Mike Lowell, move Robinson Cano to 3B (like they've talked about) or get someone through trade that ISN'T a huge injury risk and save themselves the money.

The Cardinals would have to view it as a straight salary dump because the Yankees aren't just giving away the farm anymore.

Scott Rolen would NEVER approve that deal, no matter how much he hates TLR.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 30, 2007 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But it's the Yankees....
So they would be willing to take on a high/over priced aging veteran with health problems.  It's their M.O.

Am I being too cynical? :)

by joecardsfan on Oct 30, 2007 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think
you are being cynical, but Brian Cashman has a firm grip on that team now.  He is one of the best GM's in the biz, and is on record as stating they prefer to keep their young talent.

Rolen doesn't seem to fit the Yanks current M.O.  particularly if it is going to cost them some of their homegrown prospects.  Cash will ante up for J.Santana, but I can't imagine he'd ante up for Rolen.  I would be very surprised.  

by MrPlow on Oct 30, 2007 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree
with your thoughts.  Also, there has been talk of the Yanks being interested in Miguel Cabrera for 3B.  The trade would be centered around Melky Cabrera.  That trade would make a lot of sense for the Yankees in terms of getting a young impact player who is going to command a huge contract, to fill the A-Rod void.  I could then see them making a run at T. Hunter or someone similar, in order to fill CF.

As much as I love Rolen, I'd still like to see the Yanks revert to old ways.  Wishful thinking, I know....

by joecardsfan on Oct 30, 2007 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

wow...
Cabrera at 3B in pinstripes.  glad the cards aren't in the AL.  I hadn't heard that one before.  

by MrPlow on Oct 30, 2007 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

pinstripes...
are slimming...ouch a little friendly jab at Miggy
"Back in the day when I played, a pitcher had 3 pitches: a fastball, a curveball, a slider, a changeup and a good sinker pitch." - Mike Shannon

by nomar34 on Oct 30, 2007 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cabrera isn't really a 3B.
Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on Oct 30, 2007 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1
Yanks are going to be like the Indians from here on out...except with more money...so basically Super Boston...
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Oct 30, 2007 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

completely agree
the best chip we have to get a pitcher is duncan. from there a signing like bradley (low $, high risk, high potential reward) is the best way to improve the offense. Despite being hurt in the second half, I still think we'd be selling high on Duncan too.

The question i have is, how reasonable is it for the cards to trade duncan's kid? Will it even factor into the new GM's decision? Obv it shouldn't.

I'd be willing to trade Rolen even if was just a salary dump. i'm tired of everyone expecting him to suddenly return to '04 form. his shoulder is a CRONIC issue. He is what he is. At this point, I say get what you can for him and move on. We have got to stop counting on injured veterans every season. Does anyone remember if he has a full or partial no-trade clause?

by kalmavet on Oct 30, 2007 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Options
Not alot available for 14 million.

Bay and Wilson for Thompson, Reyes, and Duncan. Make Franklin or Wellemeyer a starter.

Trade Reyes for Quentin, play Ryan at short and sign Schilling.

Sign Milton Bradley, trade Reyes for Jack Wilson, start Wellemeyer.

How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Oct 30, 2007 10:15 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

What I like is that this roster
gives an immediate test to the new GM, and possibly an early insight into his priorities.  Will he look at the $4.6 million spent on Speez, Miles and Gooch and say "hmmm ... okay" (the Jocketty response) or will it be "are you STONED?"

I'm hoping for the latter. That would also be an interesting shot across the bow of TLR.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Oct 30, 2007 10:36 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

This sure does squash
any of those A-rod daydream scenarios...

by jeff abs on Oct 30, 2007 10:45 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sure how we can trade away cheap talent
Like Duncan, Ankiel, Molina, or Reyes. It's the high-priced guys Antonetti should consider moving, like Rolen (maybe has some trade value, but he's at a sell low point now), Edmonds (low value), and Izzy (higher trade value). Unfortunately Encarnacion and Mulder are lost costs to this team.

If Antonetti does come in, it will be interesting to see how the Cardinals fanbase takes the "cold-hearted" approach that the young stats guys are taking, such as not re-signing Thome in Cleveland, or trading Nomar at his near peak in Boston. This team needs to get younger (and cheaper), which means trading away high-priced assets for prospects (since the farm isn't going to produce too much).

by Yellow Dog on Oct 30, 2007 11:01 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Depo trading
LoDuca for Penny was a great move but it got him fired.

I fear that Molina will be moved soon before he asks for 3 years $25M and the fans will freak.

by Harknights on Oct 30, 2007 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Minor League Experts
do you know what the ML-ready timetable is for Anderson? Trading Molina is an option, albeit unlikely. The new GM may prefer to move that asset, in favor of a catcher w/ an actual bat. Of course TLR loves him, heck so do i, but he would have good value. I'm just wondering how soon our in-house replacement is supposed to be ready.

by kalmavet on Oct 30, 2007 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Anderson
Why not use him as our back-up catcher, allowing Yadi to teach him the ropes?
Pitching, speed and defense

by busch bird on Oct 30, 2007 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Because you want him to play a lot
to keep his development on track.

by sdrone on Oct 30, 2007 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

because
he'll learn more as a starter in the minors than as a backup in the majors.
Hello, playoff watching

by nycbirdo on Oct 30, 2007 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

2009
would be my guess.
Future Redbirds

by erik on Oct 30, 2007 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Izzy has a no trade clause...
And would exercise it per his agent.  He's not going anywhere.  Thus, he has zero trade value.
"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Oct 30, 2007 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It looks like...
I was beaten to the punch below.
"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Oct 30, 2007 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Have we though
about going to Home Depot and picking up some day laborers? they would play for $150 a day. That would free up some money.

Man we are somewhere here

Rock =X=== Hard Place.

We may be closer to a Hard Place.

by Harknights on Oct 30, 2007 11:05 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Buy Low, Sell High
The guy I'd most consider trading is Izzy.  His value won't go any higher than it is today.

Rolen, Edmonds, Mulder, Encarnacion and Kennedy all have negative trade value, so they aren't worth trading.

The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Oct 30, 2007 11:06 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree...
that Izzy will probably have the most trade value out of that high priced group.  But I don't think his trade value is at its peak right now in the offseason.  

I know its a risk considering his health issues, but I'd keep him in my back pocket till two weeks before the deadline.  That is when his value will be peaking.  If/when Izzy is dealt, please be in July.

by MrPlow on Oct 30, 2007 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i am with you Z
except he probably won't waive his no-trade.

by lboros on Oct 30, 2007 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sigh
we can dream right?

by JMedwick on Oct 30, 2007 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trading Izzy
call me crazy but this would be the perfect move to gauge what direction the new GM is taking the team. Keeping him doesn't prove much, but if he trades izzy (count me in) then he clearly recognizes the need to rebuild in 08.

would izzy waive the clause to go to a contender? Any of the losers in the Rivera chase would be pretty desperate for a top-notch closer. We should capitalize on their panic

by kalmavet on Oct 30, 2007 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He even stated that he wouldn't back in July
There's no reason to believe he's changed his mind.

by outraged on Oct 30, 2007 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Someone would have to be willing
to extend the contract and he might not want to forgo free agency anyway.  I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility but I'd put the probability at about 10%.

by chuckb on Oct 30, 2007 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bernie & Izzy
Man, I really hope all this assumption and rumor regarding Antonetti is true.  Remember when Bernie said AJ Burnett was a done deal.   When it comes to that hack, I'll wait to count my chickens.

I hope it is him however.   I really get the impression he would never throw 8+ million dollars at a reliever.

That is probably my biggest beef with Jocketty...his contract extensions.   Why did we have to extend Jimmy last year?   He was already under contract.  How much less would he have signed for after this year's production.

Why did we have to extend Izzy in 2005?  He had an option in 2006 and obviously prefers to stay in the area.   Only one reliever in baseball has made more money over the last three years...Mariano Rivera.   Is Izzy that elite?   Is he the second best closer in baseball?  Is he a HOF closer like Mo?  

God I hope it's Antonetti.

by RedbirdRay on Oct 30, 2007 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What about Josh Kinney?
I thought that he was scheduled to return in the spring.

by Don Zero on Oct 30, 2007 11:11 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Brace Yourselves Amigos
2008 is gonna hurt. IMO, here are the best things that can happen in 2008:
  • Rasmus excels in Memphis, has some coffee in September
  • Garcia and Walters end the year at Memphis
  • Joe Mather tears up AAA
  • Rick Ankiel is good enough to get 500 AB
  • Chris Duncan and Anthony Reyes are parlayed into a young starter like Matt Garza, Boof Bonser, or Shaun Marcum
  • Rolen recovers as a hitter
  • Carp returns in August and makes 5-10 starts
  • Josh Kinney comes back as Josh Kinney
  • Jarrett Hoffpauir displaces Aaron Miles in ST and earns 300 AB

by Hungry Jack on Oct 30, 2007 11:34 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

don't forget
Jimmy SWEARS he's never felt better in his life so expect a +70 VORP from him this year...it's automatic ;)
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Oct 30, 2007 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

When did Jimmy
Say that?

by DesmetMattdNYC on Oct 30, 2007 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

during the season or
after it ended?

by DesmetMattdNYC on Oct 30, 2007 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

towards the tail end.
He said he had at least 3 more years left in him.  
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Oct 30, 2007 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

maybe
but 3 yrs of subpar jimmy
07 Cards more drama than a daytime soap..with replacement actors

by punchinjudy on Oct 30, 2007 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, he does have atleast 3 years left if he...
radically changes his lifestyle ie.. no more booze, dough products or processed food, plus he does a total cleanse of his whole body, ie. cleans out his liver, gall bladder, colon, kidneys, adrenals... ect., enabling his body to rebuild itself on a cellular level promoting healthy joints and muscles..and raising his alkalinity... Not to mention Yoga, meditation and any other practice that would bring more peace to his system...this would help counteract the negative affects of travel, sleep deprivation, previous bad road food,long term wear and tear, minor injuries ect....I DON'T SEE IT HAPPENING. (do you?...that's quite a task)...He might make a decent 1B someplace after he shows he's got his stroke back...maybe if he get's hot next year we can trade him?...granted his veto clause.

by DesmetMattdNYC on Oct 30, 2007 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If only
steroids were still legal.
Well, let's go to the old mill anyway -- get some cider!

by Alxfritz on Oct 31, 2007 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why is that so bad?
If what you postulated comes true, is that so bad? We'd have more production out of 3rd base, 4-9 more starts out of Carp and more production out of our utility MI than we did this year. That would indicate we'd have a similar record to last year's. It's not great, but I'd be satified with being somewhere around .500 if there's a clear path forward for 2009 and 2010.

by kjblair on Oct 30, 2007 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

re the best case scenario
I think we are agreeing. I think the best steps in 2008 will be laying a new foundation for 2009 and beyond. I think this includes:
  • a return to health from Carp and Rolen (to either get more production from Scotty or re-establish his trade value)
  • the continued rise of Colby Rasmus
  • the establishment of Ankiel as a bonda fide starter
  • the addition of a young starter with #2/3 upside to go with Carp and AW
  • the continued ascent of Walter and Garcia to be ready to contribute in 2009
  • Joe Mather as trade bait or better fielding version of Duncan in LF
  • the end of Aaron Miles getting 300 AB as a Cardinal
That is a lot of stuff to go right, and even if it all goes right, I am not sure it vaults into contention in 2008. I'm taking the long view.

by Hungry Jack on Oct 30, 2007 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I guess I am out of my mind
'cause I like the starting 8. The only spot that bothers me is the 8 mill to Edmonds. I like the pen. We need SP. I would not pick up Taguchi's option, and maybe Miles has to go. That throws 2.3 mil into the mix.

 The only way we trade Rolen is if he wants to be traded. Making him feel unwelcome so he asks to be traded would be a shitty thing to do. I don't thnk this is the kind of organization that would do such a thing. I know it is just a gut feeling but trading Rolen would be a mistake.

 If we look to '09 for players why can't we look to '09 for dollars. Loop, Jaun, JimmE, and Izzy are all gone. (Cards have an option on Mulder.)Why  not take it on the chin one year and let the pay roll balloon, and have it come back down to 115m in '09. Plus there probablely is insurance money to reduce the out of pocket cost.

 This situation still doesn't prevent the Duncan/plus for A. J. Burnett idea that has been floating around here. I wouldn't mind this trade if Burnett will take back his option. He is 12m of the 18.3 mil left in LB's matrix(minus Miles and Taguchi). Then a signing of Milton Bradley for 1y 5m with an option leaves 1.3 mil for Jose Molina, and the Cards make the 115m budget.

 Reyes is the fifth starter. If the Cards don't want Reyes then they need to sign a FA pitcher causing the budget to balloon, or trade Reyes for pitching.

 Schilling says we wants to stay in Boston, and he really doesn't want to run bases. So to get him for one year the Cards would need to pay. Say 14m. Mulder and Carp are do 16.5m combined. Anybody know if we can get half that in insurance? If so we have an out of pocket for Schilling for 6 mil. There is the balloon. Reyes could then be traded for an infield prospect like Brandon Wood. Lot a folks here like Quentin, but I like an infield prospect makes more sense. If a FA signing is not possible then trading Reyes of pitching might be.

 There was rumor and speculation that the White Sox were interested in Reyes. How serious were they? The talk was Reyes/Schu plus for Buehrle. Could Reyes be a center of a Garland trade?

Burnett
Wainman
Schilling/Garland/Reyes
Loop
Piniero

I believe this is possible. With Reyes 115m. With Schill/Garland the budget balloons to 127m minus what ever insurance the Cards can get.

 Seriously folks I have to ask why no love for Miles? He is a back up middle infielder who hit .290. I know an OPS of 676 is weak, but he is a back up middle infielder.

by nybirdfan on Oct 30, 2007 12:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

You're adding
$24m or so in payroll plus killing the farm system to get those 2 guys?  

by sdrone on Oct 30, 2007 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well,
I have options. I am advocating a one year spike in payroll for Schilling of 12-14 million minus what ever we get for the inusrance. If Schill is landed then Reyes could be traded for a infield depth.

 Management doesn't seam to want Reyes. If Schill can not be landed then trading Reyes for one year of Garland might not be the best thing, but I don't believe Reyes has much of a trading value now. Certainly not as much as last off season. That's when I really was hoping the Cards would trade him.

 It is possible that Reyes needs to go to Toronto with Duncan. I really don't think these moves will kill the farm system, but yes I am willing to spike payroll one year.

 My main point is that this team is a good team, and with a couple of pitchers they will be in the playoffs next year. I honestly do not understand all the pessimism and negativity.

by nybirdfan on Oct 30, 2007 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

"this team is a good team"
I think you might be one of the few with that view point.

I agree that the offense might not be so bad (and will improve) if Rolen can produce like he did in 2006. A core of Pujols, Duncan, and '06 Rolen isn't half bad.

That said, with deals like Juan E., Kennedy, and Springer combined with injured players like Mulder and Carpenter, the Cards are short on talent and on free cash. The minor league system will help some in late 2008 and 2009, but for a full revival, that talent won't arrive until 2010 at the earliest.

This is not a good team that is 1 or 2 players away. We should stop patching the holes and go for something much more substantial if the Cards want to make it to the playoffs in the next 3 or 4 years for more than just a 2004-2006 swan song.

by JMedwick on Oct 30, 2007 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

"This is not a good team...
...that is 1 or 2 players away. "

I would argue that it is.  Our outfield is going to be one of the best, if not THE best offensively in the league next year, we have Albert and AW and a lights-out bullpen, our world-class defensive catcher has figured out how to hit, etc.  If Carpenter and Rolen were healthy we'd be the class of the NL.

by SleepyCA on Oct 30, 2007 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How in the name of everything
rational and not wildly optimistic is our outfield going to be the "best offensively" next year.  Duncan appears to be an above average OF (although he may not be able to hit lefties and suffered a series of maladies last year), Rick Ankiel has like 200 PAs in the bigs when he was just a bit above average (and glancing at his LD rate a nice BABIP helped) and Edmonds is on the decline.  That's not to mention that of those three players Duncan gives back quite a bit on defense and Ankiel & Edmonds probably top out as slightly above average fielders.  The OF may not be a problem but let's not go calling it the best in the league (Holliday & Hawpe, Beltran & youngsters).

by azruavatar on Oct 30, 2007 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

take a deep breath
Take away Colorado's park advantage and they don't look nearly as good.  

          OPS home / away
Holliday     1.157 / .860
Hawpe        1.017 / .831
Taveras       .776 / .722  
Spillbourghs  .888 / .815

There's a good chance our outfield could be better than their neutralized offensive numbers.  We won't be better than their mile-high inflated numbers (wasn't the humidor supposed to fix that?), but we'd be close if we got a healthy year from Duncan, a comeback year from Edmonds, and 800 combined PA's for Ankiel/Ludwick. If we aren't the best we'll be in the top 2 or 3.  

by SleepyCA on Oct 30, 2007 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Colo
I don't even know where to begin with this. But regardless of the home/road splits you posted, IF everything you said: IF you get a comeback year from
Edmonds (how old is he now?), IF a combined 800 PA's from Ankiel and Ludwick, and IF Duncan is healthy all year, don't you think the Colo OF is just going to get better as well? Epecially Hawpe and Holliday?

Plus, the Rox have way more chips to trade to improve  their CF spot if needed.  

The humidor did achieve it's desired effect: forcing Coor's Field to play more like parks at sea level.  Why don't you pull up the home/road splits for the Phillies OFers?  I would think those would be more severe.  

Hope you're right re: top 2 or 3 OF's in the NL, but unfortunately I don't possess your Cardinal-colored glasses. ;)

Also, speaking of Phi, I sure hope we don't go after Rowand as a temporary fix.  Do like the Rox did: suck it up for a couple of years, purge books of bloated contracts, scout well, scout well, scout Latin America, draft well, draft well, draft well.

Never thought I'd be advocating the Cards should follow Colorado's example! ;)

by DenverCardsFan on Oct 30, 2007 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

it's hard to tell if
Holliday and Hawpe have any room left to improve.  They are extremely good players, playing in their prime, and they are helped a ton by the park they play in.  I'm not trying to discredit them, but the ballpark makes them look better than they are and therefore I think it's unfair to say they are better than players who play in neutral parks based solely on their non-adjusted numbers.

Anyway I took a similar look at Philly back in the playoffs.  The splits were similarly ridiculous; I think that Ludwick would have 35+ HR power if he played in Philadelphia (or Colorado, or Cincinnati).  Before you laugh at that, consider that he was on pace for 25+ in STL this season...

by SleepyCA on Oct 30, 2007 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Colorado's OF
is better than our at all 3 outfield positions and it's not even really close.  The idea that Duncan and Holliday are really pretty similar if you take Holliday out of Colorado is just silly.  Taveras, not that great, is better than Edmonds.  Hawpe is better than Ankiel, or at least has a better track record.  The Cards' OF is not very good...period.

When Rasmus comes up, it becomes a pretty good OF.

by chuckb on Oct 30, 2007 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Can we give Duncan, Ludwick, Ankiel
another year in the big leagues before we say that?  Before Duncan's injury started really taking it's toll (early august) his OPS peaked at .932.  That is significantly better than Holliday's production outside of Colorado.  And I simply don't believe you can ignore a systematic inflation like that.  

Even including Holliday's inflated Colorado statistics, Duncan's age-25 season OBP matched Holliday's, and his age-25 SLG was 100 points higher.  Duncan's age-26 season was on a similar curve prior to the injury (.287/.378/.554 vs .326/.387/.586).  Next year will be his age 27 season, and I expect a lot out of him.  I also expect a decline for Holliday, as he won't keep up a .380 BABIP with a 19.3% LD rate and his performance is so highly dependent on his batting average.  I really think Duncan is at least close to being an equivalent hitter, and Holliday is no great fielder.

Anyway this is my last word on this, at least for now, unless you have something particularly insightful to add; we can come back and talk about it again this time next year.  I'm not afraid to admit that I've been very wrong before, in particular with my predictions for Kennedy and Encarnacion last year, but I was also right about Duncan and Ludwick and Reyes (I was calling for Duncan to be our starting LF in 2006 and wanted Ludwick to make the team out of spring training -- if the latter had happened, given our complete lack of offense in April/May, we might have been playing in October).

by SleepyCA on Oct 31, 2007 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Are you crazy?
Duncan: Above average offensively, mediocre defensively

Edmonds: Aging and slipping on both sides of the ball.

Ankiel: Power and a good arm, but outfield d can still be an adventure sometimes and no plate discipline

Bench: Some combination of career AAAA players

I can think of the following outfields that might well out produce that group:

Colorado (Holiday and Hawpe alone make this a mismatch)

Mets (Beltran along with Alou and the youngsters is a pretty good group)

Arizona (Upton, Young, and Eric)

Houston (Penace and Lee offensively can get it done)

And there are others that might put it together to be better (LA, Cubs, Brewers, and Reds).

by JMedwick on Oct 30, 2007 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Your premise is wrong re Miles.
He's not a backup middle infielder. B/U MIs get 200 ABs a year.  Miles gets 400-plus; he's a semi-regular.  That's why we gripe.

And the goatee.  Dude, it's so 2000.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Oct 30, 2007 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But he is not
supposed to be a regular. The gribe shouldn't fall to Miles.

Oh one thing guys a goatee is a beard on the chin only. A mustache and a goatee together is call a Van Dyke.

by nybirdfan on Oct 30, 2007 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Aaron Miles needs to go.


Read this to understand why there is no love for Aaron Miles by the consensus here.  His .290 average is so hollow, it is the only stat of his that looks good.


Don't you think Kennedy/B. Ryan can take care of Miles' offensive/defensive limited contributions?

by silent_bob on Oct 30, 2007 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bob
my first post has the Cards saving Miles money to be used on a back up catcher. I also say the Cards should not pick up Taguchi's option(they might have to. If they trade Schu).

  I wouldn't be suprised if Miles is on the 25 man roster, and Hoff starts the season in Memphis. I am not advocating this.

 I know Miles was asked to do much more than he is capable of, but that's not his fault. I am just saying why take it out on him.

by nybirdfan on Oct 30, 2007 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It goes w/o saying we're not blaming Miles
for his substandardness as a ballplayer.  I'm sure he's a fine gentleman, and I'd give up everything I own to have had his career as a ballplayer. We're really taking it out on TLR for apparently adopting Aaron as his only son.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Oct 30, 2007 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Aaron Miles
Congratulations on not being the sole or even primary reason why the Cardinals are going to miss the playoffs for a few seasons.  

(Although, if they come within a win or two of the playoffs, the difference between you and a replacement level player might be the difference between October baseball.)

by azruavatar on Oct 30, 2007 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why no love for Miles??
Probably because he flat out stinks.
"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 30, 2007 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

add
Eckstein
Barden
Kennedy
Ryan

Our whole MI is terrible.  No one is outstanding.

by ICbirdfan on Oct 30, 2007 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

don't completelyneglect the offense...
If there are no other upgrades to the offense, they perform like they did in 07 you're gonna need a pitching staff to allow 620 runs to be a 93ish win team.  No team in the majors did that this year.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Oct 30, 2007 12:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

they'll be better than last year
Looking at the monthly splits, we were so incredibly bad (.671 OPS as a team in April, .689 in May) that we almost HAVE to improve offensively.  Kennedy won't be as bad (and if he is, he'll be on a short leash); Rolen should be at least a little better, Edmonds has multiple effective replacements (Skip, Ankiel, Rasmus, Ludwick), Wilson, Taguchi, Miles and Cairo won't get 1000 PA's, etc.  

by SleepyCA on Oct 30, 2007 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

rocK
Don't worry they  will not perform like the did last year.

by nybirdfan on Oct 30, 2007 12:59 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

One thing
that isn't in this salary chart- TLR got a big raise this year as well.  He went from 2.5/2.5/2.8 to 2Y/~$8.5M w/ club option for 2010.  (That Mozeliak sure is a shrewd contract negotiator...)

I don't know how that figures into the salary table, but it's money the club is spending so I'm assuming it doesn't help any.

by SleepyCA on Oct 30, 2007 1:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Don't think
TLR negotiated his contract with Mozeliak, but with DeWitt.  

by cardsgirl95 on Oct 30, 2007 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, NO, NO
Really?
  1. Don't have enough to get him, and if you do, our system is so weak we can't afford to send our 4 best youngsters for one player.
  2.  Where will he play?  He's eaten himself off of 3B and the OF.  He's a 1B/DH and we have a first baseman and they won't let us use a DH.
So you propose trading away the farm for a guy who has no place here?

He can flat out rake, no doubt.  However, this guy is Manny Jr.  He has repeatedly been "talked to" about his lack of hustle and poor attitude.  Wait til the guy gets to a big market, he'll be the biggest primadona in the game.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 30, 2007 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Manny is still
a great hitter.  Who cares about the helmet-flipping and all the rest of the Manny junk?  He's still a great hitter.

We still shouldn't trade for Cabrera, but not b/c he's going to turn into Manny Ramirez.  29 teams would be pretty fortunate to have Manny Ramirez on their roster.  We shouldn't trade for him b/c of what it would cost in terms of prospects -- starting w/ Colby Rasmus.

by chuckb on Oct 30, 2007 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I could learn to love Manny's right handed
bat.  He's a terrific hitter, no question about it.

by jillsinmo on Oct 30, 2007 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Think you missed it...
The fact that he is a huge primadona was an aside to the reasons listed why we couldn't use him.
"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 30, 2007 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Anyone else get the feeling that this will
be another off-season where Cardinals fans sit here and wait as Dontrelle Willis, Edgar Renteria, Miguel Tejada, AJ Burnett, Brad Penny, Jason Bay, Miguel Cabrera, Andruw Jones, Curt Schilling, Erik Bedard, Tom Glavine, Johan Santana, Bobby Abreu all change teams and we sit here until February waiting...and waiting...

and sign Milton Bradley and Wade Miller?

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 30, 2007 2:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm with you, brother..
It's not so bad just sittin' here watchin' the wheels go round & round, is it?

by glamboomer on Oct 30, 2007 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nope...
I honestly think the Cardinals make a significant splash this offseason.
Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Oct 30, 2007 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

By splash
do you mean dumping veteran players?
"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 30, 2007 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

or it could be the splash made
as they gow down the crapper?
07 Cards more drama than a daytime soap..with replacement actors

by punchinjudy on Oct 30, 2007 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Goold's Take..
Found this from Goold in the Post-Dispatch about the Renteria trade.

http://www.stltoday.com/blogs/sports-bird-land/2007/10/what-renteria-teaches-us/

Along the line of what we're discussing here.
Boomer.

by glamboomer on Oct 30, 2007 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Goold
The Braves, earlier this season, were able to swing the deal for switch-hitting Mark Teixeira because catcher Brian McCann was blocking the plate from prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia. There's a good chance both will be the same All-Star Game -- on opposite teams, granted -- in the near future.

Sounds like a situation we are in.  I'm not saying that Yadi or Anderson are the caliber of those two, but there is certainly going to be a similiar situation in 2009 and beyond.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 30, 2007 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Antonetti official?
Am I missing something or did you jump the gun, lb?

It's kinda scary 'cause the last time somebody jumped the gun this year, they were saying that the Rockies would be playing the Indians in the world series.

So if you did make an assumption, let's hope it comes true.

On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on Oct 30, 2007 2:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Bernie
Yesterday Bernie pretty much confirmed that unless something drastic happens then CA will be the new GM and it should be announced today or tomorrow.

by StLHugo on Oct 30, 2007 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Context clues
He's jumping the gun.   I hope it's true.

But, Bernie also has said things like the AJ Burnett thing was a done deal.  

by RedbirdRay on Oct 30, 2007 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

question from Hawai`i
does anyone know how Enc is doing?  Not caring so much about insurance, but wondering if he's somewhat ok.

by hawaiifan on Oct 30, 2007 2:27 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

re: Enc's status
Last I read was a couple weeks ago on the stltoday.com website.  In a nutshell, not good.  Only regained partial sight in his injured eye to the tune of 20/400 - legally blind (what we see at 400 feet, he can only see at 20 feet).  Mentioned that they don't want to say the outlook is grim, but they're not sure what else you'd call it.  

Granted that was a while ago.  I can only hope he's improved since then.  

by SmashedAtoms on Oct 30, 2007 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

enc
thanks--and very sorry to hear it.

by hawaiifan on Oct 31, 2007 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

lbros/hrdcor etc
just curious about Torre. When they showed his career wins b4 NY he wasnt that great a guy who had traveled alot.

Then the obvious ten yr in NYC. Historically where do you think he ranks overall not just NY Yanks? If he goes to LA what do you think he does?

Is torre a product of good teams in NY or a good manager who had his first chances at good teams in NY? I see he wasnt too bad when he coached ATL but could do without his mets records on his resume..any thoughts?

07 Cards more drama than a daytime soap..with replacement actors

by punchinjudy on Oct 30, 2007 2:56 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The fact that this group costs $100M
Is proof, in my mind, that Jocketty was overrated as GM.

Yeah, he made a couple of shrewd trades of shitty minor-leaguers and marginal MLB players for guys like Kile, Edmonds and Rolen. But it's like he targeted shitty minor-leaguers in the draft for the sole purpose of fleecing other GMs for their stars.

Other GMs got wise, and our farm system has paid the price. And let's face it, he got lucky with Pujols and Carpenter.

You can't blame DeWitt for not "opening DeWallet." Throwing money at free agents is no guarantee of success. Go ask the Indians, Rockies, Diamondbacks and Red Sox, to a lesser extent, what they think is best option for building a winner.

by 26thMan on Oct 30, 2007 3:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

What?
Yeah, it is really Walt's fault that both Carp and Mulder are seriously hurt, that Rolen has been hurt, and that Juan E. got hurt last year.

If those two starting pitchers are healthy and as good as they should be, this team wouldn't be far off at all, and we'd have some pieces to trade.

by SoonerfanTU on Oct 30, 2007 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What?
Is it Walt's fault Carp became good in the first place?  That was no stroke of genius.   Carp was a rehabbing pitcher with some talent who didn't quite ever put it together...in other words...a younger Kip Wells...barely a 2:1 k:Bb rate and ok-ish other peripherals.

Walt paid him to rehab and he turned into Cy Young.  Unpredictable is a nice way to put it.  Lucky as hell is another.  

by RedbirdRay on Oct 30, 2007 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well
That may be your opinion, but I think you are short changing how good Carp was before his injury.  Cy Young good?  Probably not, but definitely a #2 with Ace potential.

by SoonerfanTU on Oct 30, 2007 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good stuff
Nothing he had done previously to our rehabbing backs your statement...unless you count that he had "good stuff"...and so does Kip Wells.

Carp's best year prior was an ERA+ of 113. He pitched into his year 27 season.   So, under typical career paths he had peaked and THEN needed a major, often career ending surgery.  

His K:9 prior to surgery was 6.32, BB:9 was 3.5.  He only had one season with a WHIp below 1.4

Pitchers don't usually improve upon almost 900 innings of history AFTER surgery.

by RedbirdRay on Oct 30, 2007 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Eventually you have to pay the piper
for backloading contracts.  They have sunk cost in Juan Encarnacion, Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder.

Whether you thought those players would be any good or not, I don't know that you could have expected 1 to almost lose his sight on a freak accident and the other 2 to lose 2 seasons due to arm surgery.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 30, 2007 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Red Sox?
With their pennypinching contracts to Manny Ramriez, Curt Schilling and Jason Varitek?

by Valatan on Oct 30, 2007 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Red Sox
Come on!  They paid what $100 million just to talk to Dice K??  That was just to talk to him with no guarantee of signing him.

The Red Sox have plenty of money.  Maybe those guys wanted to stay at Boston and agreed to deals that seem fair enough.  They probably could have made more but it was their decision.

by ICbirdfan on Oct 30, 2007 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wrong- the Sox paid $51 mil to talk to Dice K
and 50 mill to sign him.
When cheese gets its picture taken, what does it say?

by RosevilleRedbird on Oct 30, 2007 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Still
That is still ridiculos.  That eliminated 1/2 the teams in MLB by saying it took $51 million to talk to the guy.

Look at the Dback and Rockies, their whole team basically cost a bit over $51 million.

It is crazy you must agree.  

by ICbirdfan on Oct 30, 2007 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Look a little closer at my comment
there is a touch of sarcasm there.

by Valatan on Oct 30, 2007 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Sox
The disparity between the Red Sox payroll and ours is fairly equal to the disparity between the Rockies and ours. Same with the Brewers, DBacks, etc.   To those teams, we might as well be the Red Sox.

The Sox may be East coast and high budget, but they certainly aren't the Yankees (despite how I hate them).  They have incorporated the advising of Bill James and the young forward thinking of Theo and Co.   They are what we should be...a 100+ million budget and a developmental focus to build a contender every year.

The Sox kicked the hell out of the old school Yankees on roughly half the budget.   I would lump them in with the role models.

by RedbirdRay on Oct 30, 2007 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

fair
I hear ya.

Basically the Cardinals are in trouble until they start drafting better.  It does not sound like our system will be good until about 4 more drafts take place.  This first draft will be with a new GM in place and then I will give him 3 more to get things right.  A lot of the experts see our system as a bunch of contibutors but nothing great besides Rasmus being a "can't miss" guy.  So we are not yet developing difference makers in the minor league system.  We have a lot of guys who can come up and replace Aaron Miles which is not a good thing because all that means is you have a cheap Aaron Miles for a couple years but then you are stuck with Aaron Miles once they start to make what he would.

by ICbirdfan on Oct 30, 2007 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A lot of their key signings
had more to do with having absurdly deep pocketbooks.  They aren't the Yankees, but saying they are working on half the budget is false--they have 3/4 of the Yankees budget, $50M more than the Cardinals (who are spending $36M more than the Rockies, btw).  The Manny Ramirez deal alone would cripple most clubs.  And that Josh Beckett deal was sure the hallmark of a team whose focus is centered around player development.

They have solid scouting, and a commitment to developing players in the minors, no doubt.  But the Yankees had a focus on these things, as well.  A good number of the key players on their dynasty teams were homegrown.

I would also note that Boston finished the season two games up on the Yankees.

by Valatan on Oct 30, 2007 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's not
The Beckett trade isn't a hallmark of a team focused on player development?   Since when do we have Henley Ramirezes to throw around?   How old was Beckett when they traded for him?  Was he Larry Walker's age?   Jimmy Edmonds' age?   They assessed the market, traded from a position of strength and got a studly young pitcher to anchor thier staff.   That's getting younger.

You are correct about the 3/4 salary.   I guess I was still thinking the gap was like 2005 when the Yanks were 90 million greater not even considering the luxery tax.

Had Schmidt signed with us and we had that $100 million budget DeWitt allowed for, we would have been 46 million over the Rockies and 43 million under the Sox.   A year ago (2006) we were 32 million under the Sox and 47 million (over twice thier budget) over the Rox.  When you consider even last year our budget comes within a league average starter's salary of doubling the Rockies I'd still say we are similar to being as Boston is to us.

But, my point was really the Sox are a higher tiered payroll team...just like us.   They have a nice blend of scouting, SABR influence and well assessed market moves...just how we should be.   There is no reason for us to become the Rockies Brewers or Marlins on our budget.   We should be the Sox.

by RedbirdRay on Oct 30, 2007 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If we traded Rasmus for a 27 year old
pitcher with the injury history that Beckett had in Florida, and then signed said pitcher to an extension, there would be endless moaning and wailing about the team's lack of commitment to youngsters here.  And Rasmus probably won't be as good as Ramirez.  

Though winning a world series on the back of the pitcher would, of course, shut all detractors up.

by Valatan on Oct 30, 2007 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And additionally,
Jim Edmonds was only 29 when we traded for him.  Larry Walker was essentially a salary dump.  We gave up total junk for him.  And we essentially only gave up a few years of Adam Kennedy for Edmonds.  How did we mortagage the farm on those guys?

I'm not contrasting StL and Boston so much as to say that they are not a team that's centrally built around player development so much as one built around a huge budget, not making stupid decisions that waste tons of money (though I still think that Matsuzaka could easily be prone to a falloff), and supplementing the big budgetary decisions with players from the farm.

Who is the core player on their roster that is homegrown?  I guess Kevin Youkilis and Jonathan Papelbon came up through their system, but everyone else was a free agent or a trade acquisition.

by Valatan on Oct 30, 2007 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What is the difference?
What's the difference between home growing a player and having a young player?

Does Wainwright not fit our future plans because we didn't draft him?

Before you bash too much on big Papi, Schilling, and the like...maybe you should check out thier salaries and especially thier price per marginal win.

Schilling makes less than most pitchers of his ilk are getting.

Ortiz only makes 12.5 per.

Varitek is pretty productive for $9 per.

Only Manny's contract seems unwieldly.   And guess what?  Theo didn't sign him to it.  Theo inherited it.  

Theo's been there since 2004.   I see quite a pipeline of pitching coming in.   I see some high tier prospects here and there to either trade for valuable commodities (which we all seem to agree we don't have the goods to do).   I see a struggling rookie infielder being given the benefit of the doubt and allowed to develop at the major league level.  But, most of all, I see a team making pretty much the most out of thier money and beating the hell out of pretty much everyone.  

I am not saying we mortgaged the farm getting Edmonds and Walker.   I am saying they traded for 25 year old ace type pitcher and we trade for old veteran types...or rather we did before those types of trades became obsolete.

by RedbirdRay on Oct 30, 2007 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And how about
flipping a four year contract after one year for a top tier prospect (Renteria for Marte)...and then trading that overvalued chip for 3 years of a team controlled centerfielder (who was extended at a rate less than his arby would have gained him).

by RedbirdRay on Oct 30, 2007 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

he wasn't 27
He was 25 not 27.

His injury history was blisters, wasn't it?
That's hardly a red flag.

by RedbirdRay on Oct 30, 2007 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

WJ
I for one am not sad to see him go.  I look forward to a GM who (hopefully) advocates more of a "Moneyball" approach.  We don't have the Yankees or RedSox payroll and must rely on scouting and shrewd drafting. My opinion of course.

And I screamed like hell (although not on here :( ) the day the Mulder deal was announced.  Beane burn't us on that one.

by DenverCardsFan on Oct 30, 2007 3:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Here is what i would do:
Sign Jose Molina to become the backup catcher.

Trade Anthony Reyes, Randy Flores, and Mark Worrell to Arizona for Connor Jackson. Put him in left field.

Sign Joe Kennedy to be the second lefty out of the pen/backup rotation option.

Trade Chris Duncan and Blake Hawksworth to LA Angels for Ervin Santana and Erik Aybar.

Sign Tom Glavine to a one year deal.

Lineup:

Aybar - SS
Ankiel - RF
Pujols - 1B
Rolen - 3B
Jackson - LF
Edmonds - CF
Y. Molina - C
Kennedy - 2B

Bench:
J. Molina
Spiezio
Ludwick
Ryan
Schumaker

Rotation:

Wainwright
Glavine
Santana
Looper
Pineiro

Pen:
Isrighausen
Franklin
Springer
Kinney
Johnson
Joe Kennedy
Thompson

by El Hombre on Oct 30, 2007 3:56 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

no to aybar and santana
Long time reader first time poster.  Great work lboros.  

We'd be better off with Ryan at short than Aybar
Aybar - .237/.279/.289 and 4 for 8 SB
Ryan - .289/.347/.406 and 7 for 7 SB
in about the same amount of games

and Santana is coming off a terrible year.
7-14 5.76 era

by ChicagoCardinal on Oct 30, 2007 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sometimes
there's a reason its buying low.  Aybar isn't the answer at short and Santana was something tossed around last year, I'm glad we didn't trade away for him.

Liked your idea about Connor Jackson though.  Lots of potential there.

by ChicagoCardinal on Oct 30, 2007 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cojack
May not have much power yet, but is a right handed bat that can hit lefties and get on base. Only problem would be how he would adjust to playing OF.

by El Hombre on Oct 30, 2007 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well...
Giving them Duncan is not exactly buying low.
"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 30, 2007 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd rather have Aybar
I've seen him play several times and he is outstanding defensively.  I think his offense will also prove to be better than Ryan's long term.  I have been beating this drum for a while.  

Duncan to the Angels for Aybar or Santana.  I doubt they would do both, but I like both players a lot.  I have soured some on Santana, but I'm not really sure why his control is struggling.  It may be fixable.

by OCCardsFan on Oct 30, 2007 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No to Glavine!
I like all these these suggestions except Glavine. Connor Jackson makes sense, and E Santana might be exactly the kind of guy we need to take a chance on. But Glavine is a waste of valuable budget.

by DenverCardsFan on Oct 30, 2007 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This all comes down to Rolen and Edmonds...
I just don't see how any GM can be too proactive with their status up in the air.  

If we get to spring training with Rolen and Edmonds looking healthy then you might have enough offense to trade Duncan for a starting pitcher.  

If Edmonds is healthy and playing well in spring then you want to trade him before he gets injured.  Start the Rasmus era early.

If Rolen heals and is playing well later in the season then see if you can give his contract away at the deadline.  (Same goes for Kennedy rebounding and playing well--see if you can do a salary dump.)

Unless you can pick up players over the winter that you control for a long period of time at below market value-you almost have to stand pat until next year when the payroll loosens up.  I really think the best the new GM can do this year is dump contracts.

by BigJawnMize on Oct 30, 2007 4:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Rasmus/Anderson
What is it with some of you wanting to throw them to the wolves this early?  Talk about ruining a career.  They aren't ready, give them time to develop, then we'll see them.  Rasmus hit what, .270ish this year in AA?  He needs more time.

by SoonerfanTU on Oct 30, 2007 4:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Rasmus hit .270ish
with a .381 OBP.  Batting average = not a good analysis tool in isolation.  Some time in Memphis isn't going to hurt Rasmus but he could be our best CF option as early as June (you could argue that he is now).

by azruavatar on Oct 30, 2007 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed
Now I think it is wise to keep pitchers in the minors to build up arm strenght and work on certain things.  However I don't see the point of holding a position player back just to get him more minor league time.  These guys are all good players and it only benefits them to start facing MLB pitching asap.  Now they may struggle out of the box but if he is as good as people predict then Rasmus will adjust well enough.  

 

by ICbirdfan on Oct 30, 2007 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Again
Rasmus' ZiPS is .245 .329 .419.  He's not ready.
Cheeseburger in paradise.

by joker24 on Oct 30, 2007 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That ZiPS progression
Is still better than two outfielders who had over 300 ABs for us last year did.

And it's better than Encarnacion, Taguchi or Ankiel project this year with better defense.

by RedbirdRay on Oct 30, 2007 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes it is
How do you think a .240 average would do for a 20 year old's confidence and development?  Not good.  It'd be TERRIBLE to open with Rasmus on the big club.
Cheeseburger in paradise.

by joker24 on Oct 30, 2007 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

maybe
Kind of hard to say how anything will affect an individual's confidence, isn't it?

I guess it would be about equally as predictive to say making the majors at 20 years old would give a kid a lot of confidence wouldn't it?

by RedbirdRay on Oct 30, 2007 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

luckily, he's not 20 anyway
Rasmus will be 22 on August 11th (born 1986).   There is a long list of 22 year olds who hit the ground running.   And a long list of 22 year olds who didn't but still turned out great.

by RedbirdRay on Oct 30, 2007 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Still irrelevant
The true point is that he shouldn't be good next year and won't make a difference in the Cardinals season anyway...making it even dumber to mess with his development.

(And he'll be 21 opening day, sorry about the year off)

Cheeseburger in paradise.

by joker24 on Oct 30, 2007 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wha?
Shouldn't be good next year?

I'm interested to hear what you are basing that off of other than blind speculation.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 31, 2007 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

again what?
I've never had this conversation before. . .

I never claimed he was ready start the year in STL did I?  What I did say is that he could be one of our 3 best outfielders all things considered.  Additionally, that's the mean for Rasmus -- his optimistic and pessimistic projections would have a significantly higher variance than other players give the data set that's being used for projection.

by azruavatar on Oct 30, 2007 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Reyes
Reyes was projected by ZiPS to have a 3.something ERA last year.   I wonder if his 6.04 ERA was even in the pessimistic window.

On the positive side, Dan's new (at the time) reliever-to-starter toy really nailed PuppyKicker and Loop.

by RedbirdRay on Oct 31, 2007 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's probably half a season
away from being ready, but I think he would be our best CF if on the roster on opening day.  He's ahead of Edmonds right now, no doubt about it.

by chuckb on Oct 30, 2007 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ok, come on
The guy hasn't had a AAA or major league at bat.

by sdrone on Oct 30, 2007 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Your point?
"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 30, 2007 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

#2 in this thread
Rasmus' ZiPS is .245 .329 .419.  He's not ready.  If he's our best CF option, we aren't going anywhere anyway so don't worry about it and let him have his time when he's ready.
Cheeseburger in paradise.

by joker24 on Oct 30, 2007 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't get it
I guess i don't understand either side of the leaving him out arguement.  

If we aren't going anywhere and he truly is our future...why not give him time vs major league pitching in the vien of the Royals, DRays and Marlins and their youth (all have had 22 year olds who turned out just fine)?

If we are going somewhere, why not play the best outfield options the team has (barring an addition).

by RedbirdRay on Oct 30, 2007 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hitting .245 is not going to help him
In any way.  It's one thing for a guy to struggle, it's another to suck.  He's 21.  He has plenty of time, AAA helps guys make adjustments.  Rushing guys doesn't help.
Cheeseburger in paradise.

by joker24 on Oct 30, 2007 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

batting average
I would estimate over 90% of the patrons of this site think batting average has little value as a stand-alone statistic.

An OPS of .700+ isn't really sucking.  Especially at his age.  

Most young hitters say thier September call-ups, Spring training invites and limited time in the show is invaluable.   Seeing major league pitching and talking with major league hitters does so much more for them then slugging the snot out of AA or AAA pitchers.

Also, the gap between AA and MLB isn't as wide as most think.

I have never heard evidence that seeing 500 MLB plate appearances is detrimental to anyone's development.   The arguement is that it's better to play everyday than ride pine in the majors.   I am advocating Rasmus start if we don't acquire someone else to play OF.   He's the best of our options and it won't hurt him.

I have a serious problem with the logic that facing the type of pitching a guy will eventually be seeing everyday will somehow impede a player's growth.

Alex Gordon hit .247 this year.   He hit under .200 in his first 200 plate appearances and had a first half OPS of .680.   Do you think he's somehow impeded developmentally because of this?

A .739 OPS does not "suck" btw.   It's not great.  But, it does happen to be better than Eck, Branyon, Speiz, Yadi, Enc, Tags, SnoCones, AAAron, Edmonds, Rolen, and Kennedy posted for us last year.  Maybe they all need more time at AA and AAA also?  

by RedbirdRay on Oct 30, 2007 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oops ... math = hard
I guess that should actually be a .748 OPS, not a .739 OPS.  

by RedbirdRay on Oct 31, 2007 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

well put together post
"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 31, 2007 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't realize...
the Zips projections were set in stone results.  They are projections, that have been way off many times.

I'm not even really disagreeing with you.  I think he could use some more time in the minors as well, but your argument is just baseless absolutes.

You can't say for a fact that he isn't ready anymore than someone else saying he is.  It's all speculation at this point.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 31, 2007 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hunter Pence & Colby
have similar AA stats, tool sets, and potential. Pence played in 25 AAA games before coming up to Houston. That's the type of time table Rasmus may very well be on.
Well, let's go to the old mill anyway -- get some cider!

by Alxfritz on Oct 31, 2007 2:03 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

AAA
First of all he is in the AFL now and will get some international exposure this winter, that should qualify as AAA time since it is cream of the crop pitchers (he even got a double off Mitch Boggs last night).  Secondly though AAA has become a dumping ground of AAAA talent for most teams.  I actually think he faced better pitchers in Springfield this year then he would in Memphis next year.  I doubt he will start with the club but the first injury that results in a DL stint he will most likely come up for.  The only question is what is the ETA on Edmonds going on the DL?  I expect early June at the latest before Rasmus is up.  Also depending on how Anderson does this winter I could see the Cards not signing a back up catcher at all and just using Anderson in that role even if it would start his clock earlier, though I could also see them going cheap on a backup just to avoid starting his clock.

by StLHugo on Oct 31, 2007 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No fast moves...
I don't think we are going to be seeing any major moves until at least the Winter Meetings and most likley after that. The new GM is going to need time to learn and rate the current situation with the 40 man roster and the minor league system before making any big moves. I could even see, as someone suggested above, them not making many moves until they see how Rolen and Edmonds etc..look in Spring Training.  In the meantime I see that Eck, Cairo, and Percy have all filed for FA. The only one of those guys I'd like to see back is Percy, and I have a feeling he is going to get a good offer to close for someone else.. but...it would be nice to sign him as then using Izzy for trade bait or even Percy at that point would make much more sense to me.

by Timbo02 on Oct 30, 2007 4:49 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The Dodgers...
have Colletti and Torre running things now... the vets don't like the rooks and vice-versa... Fleecing those guys for Loney or Kemp should be Antonetti's first order of business.
Ease LaDunketty out gently, thank him profusely, and... Hire Antonetti!!!

by guayzimi on Oct 30, 2007 5:35 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

talk is that
the Dodgers are looking at A.Jones for CF and would move Pierre to LF (ick) so that would free up Kemp.

by Harknights on Oct 30, 2007 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good god...
Colletti is the last of a dying breed... It'll be tough to beat everyone else out for their young players. We might be lucky to land Ethier.
Ease LaDunketty out gently, thank him profusely, and... Hire Antonetti!!!

by guayzimi on Oct 30, 2007 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There's a reason
that breed is dying.  Hopefully the Cards can loot the Dodgers for a couple good prospects before their ownership figures it out.

by chuckb on Oct 30, 2007 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just throwing ideas out
Duncan to the O's for Tejada.

Sign Glavine to a one year deal.

Reyes might not look bad in San Diego...I just can't figure out what we want from them.

this is not easy...what we have to trade is cheap and what we need to dump is expensive.

by Harknights on Oct 30, 2007 6:14 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Okay, I'll respond......
I'm pretty sure the O's will want and get more than Duncan for Tejada.

Glavine goes back to Atlanta to finish his career.

Reyes indeed would look good in San Diego.  He's different enough from their other pitchers that they would welcome him and be willing to take on the challenge to get him right.  The Pads  AA team  was named AA team of the year by Baseball America...we should start there and get some prospects...maybe there's a ss prospect blocked by Greene?  I'd start there.

This not easy....It looks like Detroit, Chicago Cubs, Twins, and Toronto are the only teams not  looking for pitching.  It's going to be hard for us to compete with everyone else to sign anyone worth having.

For my big bat I'd take a chance on Milton Bradley.  Show him some love and respect and he'll put up great numbers in between DL trips.  Just a one year deal.....it's probably all he'll ask for anyway.  If the Cards are not in contention, flip him to a contender for a prospects ransome.  

by jillsinmo on Oct 30, 2007 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

thought on defense
first time poster, go easy:
with duncan's love-affair with the sinker, notwithstanding looper's shift to flyball pitcher, the cardinals should reasonably expect ground balls.  with the corner infield spots wearing gold gloves, we're ok. what about up the middle?  miles seems to use a frying pan and while eckstein got better under the secret weapon, don't we need a defensive upgrade up the middle?  neither provides much offense anyway.  

one more question, who leads off if eckstein leaves?  

by birdsonthebat on Oct 30, 2007 6:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

GAH!!
Finally got a chance to check in today. Damn, LB. You're going the extra mile to decimate my dreamy dreamland about our chances next year before the off-season even truly begins. Ah well, I guess reality is the cross you have to bear to keep the high standards of VEB in effect :-) If you need me, I'll be in a corner of my basement, hunkered into the fetal position, sweating and babbling to the empty air about the 08 post-season. Ug.

by rockin redbird on Oct 30, 2007 6:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

And do not forget that even though the Cubs are
the Cubs, they actually have a pitching staff with a #1, 2, 3, 4, 5 starters.  They also have two almost ready starters parked in aaa and aa.  They are going to be good enough to win the division again, and they are only going to have do a few tweaks.  And the Brewers have graduated a bunch of their players from AAA, and they still have a boatload of talent coming up behind the guys already there.  It is not going to be easy to get the parts we need.....

by jillsinmo on Oct 30, 2007 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So true...
But as you say, the Cubs are still the Cubs. They may pull another rabbit out of the hat, but as always, there will be something that burns them. Lilly had a career year. Will he do it again? Doubtful. Zambone looked mostly great, but isn't he about due for an injury? Marquis...well, nuff said. Can Hill repeat what he did during the season or will he throw more like his post-season appearance? Yes, they have a couple minor leaguers they can bring up, but as we know from experience, being great in AA or AAA doesn't automatically mean that will translate to the big club.

All are questions we won't know till the season is underway. And Ramirez and Lee enjoyed fairly healthy seasons too--will they do that again? What about Soriano--he's always an injury waiting to happen. They're all getting as long in the tooth as our guys. I'm not arguing, just pointing out they're not a lock for anything. And even if they win the division again, I'm pretty confident it will again go nowhere. Why? Cubs. They have a window that may last another year or two, and then they're gonna be in the same boat we're in with Rolen and JEd. In the end, I'm still more fearful of The Crew putting their act together for real. If they do, they may have a great several year run.

by rockin redbird on Oct 30, 2007 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Curt Schilling says he will pitch for the Cardinal
and it will cost $13 M.
"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 30, 2007 11:45 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Duncan for pitcher and
Sign Schilling and Bonds to one year deals inflates the current years payroll but the team would be competitive and there's still long term flexibility.  It won't ever happen but that would be nice.

by azruavatar on Oct 30, 2007 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sparks in the Dugout?
Considering some of Schilling's public comments regarding Bonds and his "alleged" illegal use of steroids, that would make for an interesting team chemistry.  I'm not sure we'd want to go there even if it was a realistic scenario.
"Requiescat In Pace - 2007 Zombie Cardinals"

by AustinBOB on Oct 31, 2007 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

why not...
just sign both schilling and glavine to 1 year deals and keep our young outfield? 1 more year buys us time on Garcia, Boggs, Hawksworth Parisi and Pomeranz.

by Birds on the Matt on Oct 31, 2007 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bonds is still a 3-4 win player
at least and can be had for cheap.  If the Cardinals signed all three (Schilling, Glavine, Bonds) to one year deals, I'd be ecstatic. The outfield being young doesn't make it good -- Bonds is leaps and bounds better than anyone we have in the OF.

by azruavatar on Oct 31, 2007 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that'd be
one helluva stop gap :)

by Birds on the Matt on Oct 31, 2007 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That might just work...
Sign Schilling.

Duncan, Anderson, Garcia, and Reyes for McGowan and Rios.

I may be talking out of my ass on the trade, but at any rate...sign Schilling (1yr), turn Duncan into another starter, then turn Reyes and friends into a RH OF.

Waino
Schilling
Whoever you get for Duncan
Looper
Pineiro

You don't count on Mulder/Carp...whatever you get from them has to be considered house money.

Makes some sense.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 31, 2007 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There's more wiggle room than is apparent...
...and I'm not just talking about the possibility that the Encarnacion & Carpenter contracts may be due some insurance remediation.  Remember, contracts can be backloaded.  As LB notes, the Cardinals have about 30 million comming off the books after next year.  They don't have to wait until 09 to take advantage of that.  With backloading they can sign today and pay tomorrow.  D.GOOCH

by GOOCH24 on Oct 31, 2007 1:02 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i think i'm going to be sick
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Oct 31, 2007 5:23 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Wed posts?
Anyone know if we have front page posts on Wed now since Val stepped down.

by RedbirdRay on Oct 31, 2007 9:11 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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