More on Antonetti

by gibbons on Oct 27, 2007 7:15 PM EDT

I found this article on the PD forums. Say what you want about them, but although hostile, theres a few benefits to lurking around.

Hope you enjoy the insight!

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Small problem

he was somewhat wrong about Thome.

Thome
Year - HR/RBIs
2002 - 52/118 2003 - 47/131 2004 - 42/105 2005 - 7/30 (injured) 2006 - 42/109 2007 - 35/96

I know HRs and RBIs don't tell the tail on a players skill or worth, but for DH..that is what is generally expected.

2006 was the only year (other than the injury shortened 2005 season) that a Clevelan DH or 1B outperformed Thome.

In 2003, he got a 6 year/$72 M deal with a '09 option for $13M ($3M buyout). The teams' cut practically in half the season following Thome's departure.

So with 1 year left on the contract, did the Indians really make the right decision letting Thome's 35/94 RBIs (counting injured year) per year walk?

I mean, I agree with not overpaying for longterm deals with older players however: how much better would the Indians be with Thome over the last 5 years?

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 27, 2007 7:21 PM EDT reply actions

Team's payroll cut in half*

the year after Thome left.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 27, 2007 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions

and i really hope it is simply "incomplete". The two reasons he gives for not resigning Thome were arguably poor if they stood on their own (of course, hindsight is 20/20) but if they were combined with the idea that Hafner/Broussard could easily replace Thome for league minimum, then that makes more sense. They also had a pyth record of 72-90 the year they let Thome walk, so the fact that they were unlikely to compete for a couple of years also may have helped make the decision.

BTW OPS+ for Hafner vs Thome ( i really hope the article's super-secret "OPS PLUS" isn't the one you can get off of B-R):
Year Hafner Thome 2003 115 154 2004 162 144 2005 168 85 2006 179 155 2007 118 150

So if it WAS "predicted OPS+" he was using, he did a pretty good job with superior performance 3 out of 5 years and excellent performance the 2 years that Thome was better, for much less money ($7.4M vs $83M).

by SleepyCA on Oct 27, 2007 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions

But what are you saving that money for?

If you could use Hafner or Thome at either the DH or 1B position, a team that had a payroll of $93 M in 2001 and a payroll of $61 M this year with some years almost half of that, what were they saving the money for?

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 27, 2007 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Neither one can

really play first base.

As for what they were saving the money for, does that really matter? Dolan bought the team in 2000 and after 2001 Shapiro took over. Obviously some things changed, but the current regime has built a great young team even with whatever financial constraints they have.

by plh903 on Oct 28, 2007 4:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Hmm

I guess Thome was still playing 1B when he left Cleveland, which is surprising to me.

Anyway, I think Thome would be a serious liability there at this point, and Broussard had a couple of pretty good years for free during the rebuilding process. Garko was solid last year.

Anyway, it really has little to do with the point that they've gotten better production for a fraction of the cost.

by plh903 on Oct 28, 2007 4:59 AM EDT up reply actions

But I guess that is where I have the problem

with it. It would be, in essence, if the Cardinals let Pujols walk because they believed they could match his production with Duncan/Mather for a fraction of the cost. Then, they went out and cut payroll by $60 M dollars.

Cleveland was #4 in 2001 in home attendance.
They were #12 in 2002.
They were #24 in 2003.
They were #25 in 2004.
They were #24 in 2005.
They were #25 in 2006.
They were #21 in 2007.

The moves they made may have given them a strong, younger team (if they don't let Sabathia walk) but it cost them dearly in revenue, attendance and fan support.

Have they really gotten THAT much better production out of the secondary players that made it that smart of a move to let Manny and Thome, two future HOF, walk?

There payroll has been:

$61,673,267
$56,031,500
$41,502,500
$34,319,300
$48,584,834
$78,909,499
$93,360,000
$76,500,000

If you add in Manny and Thome:

$93,673,267
$87,531,500
$73,002,500
$65,319,300
$76,084,834
$94,409,499
$106,360,000
$76,500,000

Hey, it's not my money. But Jacob's Field went from being one of the hardest tickets in all of baseball to get (rivaling Fenway and Yankee Stadium) to good seats availible on gameday.

They let 2 HOF'ers walk for what? They payroll flexibility didn't really get used anywhere else. The players they replaced them with may have equaled their production on a year or two basis, but if that player was THAT good, why not trade from a strength for a weakness.

I've always thought it was such a poor move the way Cleveland let Manny and Thome just walk away from the franchise and the stadium they practically paid for in the '90s.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 28, 2007 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't know

enough about it to know why the fans left, but it probably has more to do with the lack of a division title since 2001 than letting those guys go.

Since 2004, Pronk has contributed 180 LWTS runs (above average). In that same time-frame, Thome has contributed 115 to his teams. Manny has probably been a -20 LF defensively despite outperforming Michaels or Lawton or whoever by 40-50 runs a year. So we've got practically a wash there.

Their payroll flexibility has been used. It has been used to lock up their young talent since it bottomed out at $34 million or whatever. They will need that to retain Sabathia or whoever as well if they so choose. Paying Thome and Manny would increase their payroll by 50%!

This all still ignores that for whatever reason there is a new ownership and they set the budget, not the front office.

The fans left most likely because they went from a mini-dynasty to no division titles in half a decade, and they would have with or without Thome and Manny. The only difference with those guys would be that their payroll would astronomically higher this year.

by plh903 on Oct 28, 2007 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Eyeballing the

actual attendance figures, it's definitely on the rise this year, which shouldn't be surprising.

The Jake opened in 1994 and they didn't stop winning for years. So I stand by my point that it has more to do with winning (and things like a new ballpark) than those two guys. If they had retained them they'd be in a worse position than they are now to win and it wouldn't have helped in the meantime. Pretty simple.

by plh903 on Oct 28, 2007 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

How would they be in a worse position?

They have one big name FA they have to lock up for 2009 (Sabathia) while both Thome and Ramirez have club options for that year ($3 M and no buyout respectively).

Maybe if they hold on to Thome, they don't stupidely pay $13 M a year going forward. Or, they'd atleast be faced with the problem of trading from a strength. The Phillies got a great return on Thome in their deal.

You don't think their '07 lineup of:

Sizemore CF
Cabrera 2B
Thome 1B
Hafner DH
Ramirez LF
Martinez C
Blake 3B
Peralta SS
Guiterraz RF

wouldn't have been better?

Hafner is going to be 31 next year, 1 year younger than Thome was when they let him walk. Hafner isn't half the player Thome was and they let him walk. Think maybe they realized their previous mistake?

Their payroll for next year would be $92.2 M with all the arbitration players to be added on, just about where it was in 2001.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 28, 2007 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions

No I don't.

Thome and Manny can't play defense. Manny was a below-average LF this year. Thome was 22 runs better than Garko on offense.

It was a sinking ship at the end of their run in the 90s. I don't know how else to say this, but the team was sold and is under new ownership. You are assuming some sort of continuation here with regard to revenue or something.

by plh903 on Oct 28, 2007 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions

And this just isn't true

Hafner isn't half the player Thome was and they let him walk. Think maybe they realized their previous mistake?

Hafner 2004-2006: 160 BtRuns
Thome 2001-2003: 180 BtRuns

That's Thome's best three year stretch of his career and it's in more at-bats. You keep saying this stuff after people have pointed it out multiple times.

by plh903 on Oct 28, 2007 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions

And of course attendance went down

because they started losing. The fans saw that front office wasn't trying to win 'now' so they stopped going out to the ballpark. They had two future HOF'ers in the prime of the career shown the door after the fans had packed into that stadium year after year.

It was as if, "We gave you all this money and you decided to what, keep it?"

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 28, 2007 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions

It's not about

PR it's about winning period.

And it's not like your above quote. New ownership.

by plh903 on Oct 28, 2007 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I linked this article a few weeks ago

and it is from September 2003. So it quite possibly be the OPS+ that B-R uses today. That Diamondview program is supposed to be incredible and its possible that they "created" the OPS+ stat. I don't know for sure, though.

by silent_bob on Oct 28, 2007 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions

the question

how much better would the Indians be with Thome over the last 5 years?

Not much. There'd be no room for Travis Hafner.

Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on Oct 28, 2007 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Until 2006

Thome played 1B.

Hafner still could have DH'd or heck, could have played 1B when the rolls reversed. The Indians clearly don't care about defense at 1B as they have had Victor Martinez play 30 games a year there.

I'd take Thome/Hafner over Hafner/Broussard/Garko any day.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 28, 2007 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I see what you're saying

But...in 2002 (Thome's last year) the Indians weren't a very good team. They went 74-88 w/ a Pyth of 72-90. Obviously, even with Thome, the team had problems. It was going to take a boat load of money to bring back one player on a team that had several holes anyway. By not signing Thome (along with the other penny pinching moves they made after that season), they were given payroll flexibility in the future and didn't hang themselves with a heavy contract. They were able to be decent in 2004, pretty good in 05, and win the division this year. In a way, 06 wasn't bad, as they underperformed their Pyth by quite a bit (lousy bullpen was part of the reason). So, in my mind, its debatable if resigning Thome would have really made them much better.

by redbirdnation8206 on Oct 28, 2007 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions

interesting

This article makes him look very dependent on DiamondView for his success. I'm assuming the cards don't have that so I wonder how successful he would be for us without it.

Or would he build one over here?

by rig99 on Oct 28, 2007 1:32 AM EDT reply actions

by gibbons on Oct 28, 2007 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions

That's what I thought, too

Damn, AZ -- get it right! ;)

by chuckb on Oct 28, 2007 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions

damn

yes, it was. I wish I could claim it was a joke but I really just opened all the threads I wanted to read in separate tabs and then lost track of them.

by azruavatar on Oct 28, 2007 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions