Projected available pitchers

Dear Diary,

And Good evening everyone.

I thought I'd profile a few lesser known pitchers that have been rumored as movable this off season by their teams.  This is not meant to be an end all final authority on these pitchers but rather something to familiarize us with them.

BOOF BONSER; Being relegated to the Bullpen is never a good thing for a starting pitcher, and the Twins  could shop him in the off season.  Bonser posted a 5.10 ERA with an 8W 12L over 173 innings.  His Strikeout rate dropped slightly from last year's 20% to 17.6%, a still respectable number and is probably more a result of sample size than performance.  His Walk rate was 8.4% and his BABIP was an above average .326 to bring his WHIP to 1.53.  His FIP was 4.98, and xFIP was 4.6 so he's a candidate to improve some.

SHAUN MARCUM;  Toronoto is going into the off season looking for a left handed bat to supplement their right handed lineup and have several young arms to shop.  Marcum, 25, posted a 12-6 record with a 4.13 ERA over 159 innings this year.  Marcum struck out 18.5% of the batters faced this season, and induced 42% ground balls in his sophomore season.  He walked 7.4% of batters faced  good for a 1.25 WHIP, however his BABIP was a below average .271 and had a LOB% of 77%, to put that into perspective John Lackey and Dan Haren  Both came in at 76%, so Marcum is bound to regress. His FIP was 5.00 and xFIP was 4.52, so he is certainly a candidate to regress, but it is no small feat to survive in the AL east while pitching in a hitters park.

JESSE LITCH; Litch, 22, is another young Toronto pitcher that thrived this season posting a 7-9 record with a 3.81 ERA through 111 innings.  He also has my vote as most likely to regress, managing to strike out only 10.5% of batters with a 50% GB ratio.   He survived by a below average HR/A of 7% versus team average of 9% and a BABIP of .280. His FIP was 5.21 and his xFIP was 5.16, again there's something to be said for surviving in the AL east, especially at 22.

JONATHON SANCHEZ; Lboros pointed out the possibilities of trading with the Giants and even mentioned the 24 year old Sanchez as a candidate.  Sanchez worked 52 innings mostly in relief this season, and had an ugly 1-5 record with a 5.88 ERA. What he did right was Strike out 26.1% of the batters he faced. Apparently he was hit hard with a .374 BABIP and a 10% HR/Air and walked 11.4% of the batters he faced.  He could certainly benefit from better control and has time on his side.  

There are a lot of interesting splits and I won't go into all of the so I can keep my premise of a summary here, but he would be worth a look, even as a Loogy, left handers hit only .197 against him this year.  He could be a canidate for late twenties breakout season ala Erik Bedard.

KEVIN CORREIA: Correia, 27, started eight games this season, pitched 101.7 innings and finished with a 3.45 ERA striking out 18.3% and walking 9.2% of the batters he faced. That was good for a 1.23 WHIP, the best of his career which gave him a 4.0 FIP. As a starter he was 3-1 with a 2.54 ERA in eight starts. Pitching in a Home run suppressing park only 5% of his fly balls were home runs, otherwise he was league average on BABIP and gave up 46% ground balls. Correia is eligible for arbitration and under team control through 2010.

ERVIN SANTANA: Santana certainly isn’t as unknown as some of these other pitchers but the soon to be 25 year old pitcher deserves a look. Everyone’s well aware of his bad year, and the young fly ball pitcher should join a support group with Anthony Reyes, both have Abysmal strand rates, Santana comes with a 67% runners left on base and batters are hitting .346 with Runners in scoring position against him. BABIP against is at .329 and he’s giving up a lot of home runs, partially because only 37% of his babip were grounders and 9% of his fly balls went for round trippers. His Strikeout rate is down 4% from last year and his walk rate is up nearly 2%. If I had to guess, I would say that he is not likely to return to the form he showed last year, when his home run rate and BABIP (.272) were much better. He’s not this bad, but he’s probably not a good as he showed last year either. Somewhere in between is more likely.

Scott Baker; 26 year old Baker has never been as highly regarded of a prospect as his teammates Slowly or Garza, but has held his own in the AL central this season. Another Fly ball pitcher(I’m noticing a tend here) Baker only put 38% of his BBIP on the ground and yet only 5% of his Fly balls went over the outfield wall. That probably can’t be sustained, but his BABIP of .332 won’t be either. Baker doesn’t walk many, only walking 29 in 143 innings of work and K’d 16.8% of the batters he faced. Baker is intriguing because of his control and a season 3.94 FIP.

DUSTIN MCGOWAN; I’ve seen his name mentioned a few times and I’ll admit, wasn’t familiar with him. First off, I can’t imagine him going anywhere. He really reminds me of a young Chris Carpenter. A four pitch pitcher who K’s over twenty percent of batters faced, to put that into context that’s higher than Ian Snell, Brandon Webb, John Lackey, Matt Cain, Carlos Zambrano, Derrick Lowe, Felix Hernandez and Kelvin Escobar just to name a few. His GOSO (groundout + strikeout) rate is higher than C.M. Wang, Brandon Webb and resembles where F. Carmona was last season. Add a nice 1.22 WHIP and a 3.82 FIP and you’ve got the recipe for one of the best young pitchers in baseball. I’m really impressed with him; think he’s completely underrated and that he will compete for a CY Young award within the next five years

ANDY SONNANSTINE; I saw an article last week suggesting that Tampa Bay will trade a starting pitcher or two for, hell, I don’t know, they need pitching, but since A.S. intrigues me, and I’m kind of getting addicted to these profiles I’ll do it anyways. A.S., 24, finished the year with some pretty unspectacular numbers, 6-10 with a 5.85 ERA over 130 innings in his first year in the majors. What intrigues me is that even in his first year, he only walked 4.7% of the batters faced and struck out 17.5%, that is some good control for a young pitcher, and his FIP was 4.33. That is some horrible defensive efficiency behind him. He never posted a strikeout rate lower than 20% in the minor leagues and never had a full season ERA above 2.67. His HR rate is normal but his BABIP is above average at .333. He’s the third member of the Reyes/Santana support group; batters hit .354 against him with runners on base, versus .256 with bases empty. Batters also hit .500 against him with bases loaded. That will raise anybodies ERA. In case any body's wondering, he too, is a fly ball pitcher.