Cardinals' Cy Young

by CraveCase on Oct 2, 2007 5:41 PM EDT

So this story
(http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/10/santana-would-c.html)
got me to go to
(http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/cy).
And it made me wonder "Who is the Cardinals' Cy Young of '07?"

Luckily the ESPN Cy Young Predictor had a formula (which you can find at the bottom of the page), and I ran it with all 25, yes, 25 pitchers that the Cardinals used at various points this season (this includes Spiezio and Miles, but limits players to while they pitched for the Cardinals [like Maroth]).

Here's the stats that I got for Cards only: [editor's note, by CraveCase] Correct WHIP

<![if supportMisalignedColumns]> <![endif]>

	Wins	Losses	Saves	IP	ERA	WHIP	CYP
Izzy	4	0	32	65.33	2.48	1.07	126.80
Wainwright	14	12	0	202.00	3.70	1.40	100.56
Springer	8	1	0	66.00	2.18	0.91	72.17
Looper	12	12	0	175.00	4.94	1.34	56.47
Thompson	8	6	0	129.33	4.73	1.52	44.27
Franklin	4	4	1	80.00	3.04	1.01	39.61
Pineiro	6	4	0	63.67	3.96	1.27	38.70
Percival	3	0	0	40.00	1.80	0.85	35.22
Wellemeyer	3	2	0	63.67	3.11	1.27	31.62
Flores	3	0	1	55.00	4.25	1.56	28.97
Johnson	1	1	0	38.00	4.03	1.24	10.11
Jimenez	3	0	0	42.00	7.50	1.74	8.33
Wells	7	17	0	162.67	5.70	1.62	5.54
Cate	0	0	0	16.00	3.38	1.69	3.89
Hancock	0	1	0	12.67	3.55	1.50	0.79
Spiezio	0	0	0	1.00	0.00	1.00	0.56
Keisler	0	0	0	17.33	5.19	1.50	0.05
Falkenborg	0	1	0	18.67	4.82	1.61	-0.30
Miles	0	0	0	2.00	9.00	1.50	-0.89
Dove	0	0	0	3.00	15.00	2.00	-3.25
Carpenter	0	1	0	6.00	7.50	1.67	-3.42
Cavazos	0	0	0	20.00	10.35	2.15	-10.64
Mulder	0	3	0	11.00	12.27	2.64	-14.64
Reyes	2	14	0	107.33	6.04	1.41	-22.20
Maroth	0	5	0	38.00	10.66	2.32	-31.97

Now, I don't think the equation is perfect, but it does get the point across quite well. Izzy and Wainwright get top spots, while Reyes and Maroth are the losers (no big surprises). What do you all think? Does anything stick out to you all?

Poll

Cardinals' Cy Young for '07

Izzy

26 votes

Wainwright

43 votes

Looper

0 votes

Springer

2 votes

Franklin

2 votes

Thompson

1 votes

74 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Edit the Diary

and put what you want formatted in:

<'code>Text</'code>

Remove the -'- obviously.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 2, 2007 5:50 PM EDT reply actions

excellent topic...

I thought it would be interesting to take your numbers and go one step further, and see what it looks like to use BP's "expected wins" and "expected losses".

E(W) E(L) CYP(E) change Wainwright 14.4 9.4 108.16 7.56 Looper 11.4 10.3 56.27 -0.23 Thompson 5.3 5.2 29.65 -14.65 Pineiro 4.6 3.3 31.72 -6.98 Wellemeyer 3.0 3.0 29.64 -1.96 Wells 6.4 13.3 9.36 3.86 Reyes 5.0 8.5 6.78 28.98 Maroth 0.8 4.0 -25.17 6.83

AW, Kip and MM are helped a bit, but Reyes is really helped. Thompson and Piniero are hurt significantly...

by SleepyCA on Oct 2, 2007 6:35 PM EDT reply actions

Its really too bad that people still use w/l

as a real measure of a pitchers worth. The expected w/l numbers are a much better stat.

by DriverZn on Oct 2, 2007 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions

ExpWL

I love expected wins and expected losses. Is the formula for them publicly available?

by john vb on Oct 3, 2007 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions

The only thing that sticks out to me

Is that the WHIP values have to be waaaaay off...either that, or our pitchers REALLY sucked this year...

Re-acquire Edgar Renteria

by Mr Redbird on Oct 2, 2007 9:54 PM EDT reply actions

No, I just messed up

It was accidentally and originally set for walks/hits per game, but I changed it to the correct values, I hope.

Time to bring up the prospects.

by CraveCase on Oct 2, 2007 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Wow

that grid shows just how incredibly terrible Anthony Reyes was this year, to be THAT far behind Kip Wells and THAT close to Mike Maroth.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 3, 2007 12:10 AM EDT reply actions

Why don't you look in the comments for

the much more accurate support neutral data.

by DriverZn on Oct 3, 2007 2:58 AM EDT up reply actions

you need to look at the CYP formula

to understand why that is. It doesn't judge how good a pitcher was, or how valuable he was to his team, but rather how well he succeeded in maximizing his Joe Morgan Value (JMV). the formula is:

(CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB

The stats that are used are mostly meaningless- wins, losses, saves, "victory bonus", the latter of which is at least 80% outside of the pitchers control and is a significant portion of the score (well over 10% in most cases, unless comparing pitchers on the same team). SO's are kind of valuable, but they are devalued by the multiplier, as are IP, to a lesser extent since they also are modified by ER.

Granted, Reyes had way too few of both IP and SO... but as I showed above, he is a better pitcher than his record and era showed this year.

by SleepyCA on Oct 3, 2007 3:04 AM EDT up reply actions

JMV

Joe Morgan Value = hilarious. The irony of having an actual stat named after him is just priceless.

by john vb on Oct 3, 2007 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Izzy

Voted for Izzy just because he had a great year, but of course relievers usually don't get that cy young preference unless they are incredible and everyone else sucks.

But Wainwright:
1st Half: 7-7 (17 games) 4.66 ERA
2nd Half: 7-5 (15 games) 2.71 ERA

In the 2nd half he had almost the same # of innings, had less ER's, less HR's, less walks, more strikeouts. Thats looking good for next year. Its somewhat sad that a 2.71 ERA pitcher in the 2nd half is going 7-5. I don't have any run support numbers for him to justify how that happened though.

by Quel on Oct 4, 2007 10:00 AM EDT reply actions

Larussa did say....

After one of the like 15 or 16 to 1 losses this season, that one of the Cardinals problems was "run support". I know the Cardinals weren't the most consistent in terms of run support, and I don't know where to find run support stats, but it personally seemed like, at least in the first half of the season, that those blowouts were quite common.

Time to bring up the prospects.

by CraveCase on Oct 4, 2007 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Too bad Izzy had a nasty 6+ ERA in Sept. -

he must have lost interest with the lack of save opportunities, or something. He was on track for a career year with that stat, cruising along at about 1.70, give or take, for most of the summer.

Oh well, I'm sure I care more than he does. He doesn't seem to be a stat guy - greatest Cardinal closer of all time.

by Urban Pawnee on Oct 4, 2007 12:27 PM EDT reply actions