the more the mayorier
more bullet-pointed fare today --- assorted non- and semi-cardinalcentric thoughts about baseball:
- what a pleasure to watch josh beckett pitch last night. i haven't ever had a chance to sit down and watch this guy. i believe he could have beat the indians last night with just one pitch, his fastball --- pinpoint accuracy, late movement, and (oh yeah) mid-90s velocity. he ought to try that one time, ie an all-fastball outing. i seem to recall a legend that dizzy dean once told the opposition before a game, "nuthin' but fastballs today, fellahs" --- held true to his word, struck out a bushelful of batters, and beat 'em handily. (scroll down to the dean obituary in this link.) that story's probably not true, but i'm glad there's no pitch-fx log out there to disprove it. . . . anyway, back to beckett: i for one wasn't all that impressed w/ his breaking pitches, but the cleveland hitters were buckling at the knee anyway --- because they were so geeked up for the fastball. beckett was fearless with those breaking balls --- he was lobbing them right over the plate, not at all worried about location. didn't have to worry about it. the indians made contact (foul ball or ball in play) on only 72 percent of their swings last night, a ridiculously low total (80 percent is average); they also were able to put just 24 percent of the strikes they saw into play, an obscenely low percentage as well (mlb average, 31 percent).
- i generally detest fox's coverage, but the close-up they did on manny ramirez's single off the yellow line was outstanding. they should do more stuff like that.
- john hickenlooper, the mayor of denver, was on my flight home yesterday; i had a long chat w/ him at the gate about the rockies. back in april, he boldly predicted on KOA (denver's answer to KMOX) that the rockies would win 87 games and make the playoffs as western division champs. "they won 76 games last year with absolutely no pitching," he told me. "i thought the pitching would be better this year, and (centerfielder willy) taveras would make a big difference for the defense. and i knew tulowitzki was gonna be great; i saw him play when he came up last fall." i've known hickenlooper since the early '90s, when i was an in-over-my-head editor at denver's alt-weekly, and hick owned the brewpub / pool hall across the street; i spent a lot of time over there seeking refuge from my in-over-my-headness. hickenlooper played a not-inconsequential role in bringing baseball to this town; the success of his tavern demonstrated the economic potential of lower downtown (which is where the ballpark is now located), and he sat on some committees and rallied support for the bond issue authorizing the stadium (which barely passed). somehow we allowed the conversation to veer away from baseball; we ended up talking about schools and parks (zzzzz . . . . ). so i never got his prediction for the Series. i gotta think he's calling it rox in 4 . . .
- and here, by the way, is a list of all the teams who've gone undefeated in a single postseason.
- la russa to the royals? one of the best baseball writers around, joe posnanski, sincerely hopes not. this is not a serious consideration, by the way, so don't get all excited; just part of the interesting little back-n-forth poz had w/ la russa pal bobby knight. recommended reading. in fact, posnanski's blog is always recommended, no matter the subject.
- Future Redbirds cited an interesting article in the memphis commercial appeal about dyar miller's reassignment in the st louis system; he's out as the triple A pitching coach, and will become the roving minor-league instructor. the commercial appeal wondered if the change had anything to do with miller's impolitic comments this year (made on st louis radio and elsewhere) about dave duncan's handling of anthony reyes. miller says no, it wasn't a factor. . . . .
- speaking of the minors: if you haven't noticed yet, mitch boggs has turned in a couple of nice outings for the mesa solar sox in the arizona fall league: 6 innings, 2 hits, 0 runs. the three position players from the st louis farm system aren't getting a great deal of playing time (40 at-bats total); they have 0 extra-base hits so far as a group . . . .
- finally, derrick goold has a gold-mine of information on card farmhands' performances in the fall instructional leagues. lookin' good: jess todd, clay mortenson, d'marcus ingram, andrew brown, nick additon. not lookin' good: oliver marmol, daryl jones, shane robinson. pete kozma didn't play; spent the session working on his defense w/ mark dejohn.
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57 comments
Comments
Boggs
BTW, Larry, I don't know what the convention is on this site with regard to posting Espn Insider content. Let me know if the above is appropriate or not, thanks.
by MrPlow on Oct 19, 2007 9:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
thanks for asking Mr Plow
and appreciated, by the way.
by lboros on Oct 19, 2007 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's pretty high praise,
For what it's worth, I think that Law tends to underrate Cards' prospects due more to a difference in evaluation philosophy, rather than a built in bias. The types of players the Cards seem to go for just seem to be different from the types of guys he likes.
Thanks for the heads up, Mr. Plow.
by the red baron on Oct 19, 2007 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"KLaw"
Also, as I recall, he has always had complimentary things to say about Rasmus.
BTW, he loves Andrew McCutcheon, but its funny how it seems he never mentions McCutcheon without taking a shot at the Pirates incompetence....in his blog he wrote, "[McCutcheon] is going to be a star -- despite the Bucs' best efforts to wreck him by rushing him through the minors." Awesome. So the Cards aren't the only organization he has skewered in the present or past.
Also, thanks Lboros for clearing that up for me. I'll try and provide a discrete portal into Espn Insider when the situation calls for it.
by MrPlow on Oct 19, 2007 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
great info
by erik on Oct 19, 2007 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Couple of thoughts....
Boston media is saying that LaRussa will go to the Yankees, which to me seems like the worst possible fit. Tony's been notoriously cranky with the St. Louis media, who compared to the NYC media are gentle. I would believe he would crash and burn in the Big Apple. In those regards, KC would be a better fit. Not a good fit, but a better fit.
The best case scenario for Tony would be to sit out this round of openings. I don't see any that are immediate potential winners, with probably the exception of the Yankees. Instead, he could wait for the invetiable mid-year firing of the manager of underperforming team. He could jump on that and lock up an a two or three year extension.
I will admit to not knowing much about the particular politics of these jobs, but in thinking about potentially underperforming teams with short hooks I would think the Padres and Dodgers jump to mind. Both crashed and burned this year, so I would imagine the first hint of weakness and the managers could be thrown out.
It would also allow Tony to be closer to home.
by Brock20 on Oct 19, 2007 9:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Eh...
As for LaRussa, I believe he will come back to the Cards now. DeWitt clearly wants LaRussa back and is more than willing to give Tony a loud and important say in the GM search process. That type of power over personnel decisions is something Tony would not get most other places.
by JMedwick on Oct 19, 2007 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plus
That's what he's saying in his forum, at least.
by Cardinal70 on Oct 19, 2007 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree about TLR probably coming back
Peter Gammons said on Mike & Mike this morning that he's heard from inside sources that TLR is close to signing a 3 year deal with the Cards. Who know if that's true. But it makes sense for TLR if he's being motivated largely out of loyalty to his players because most of the key members of the team have their contracts expire prior to or by 2010. Then they could decide whether to stay or go, depending on what they think about the future direction of the club.
by nycardfan on Oct 19, 2007 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Denver
by Alxfritz on Oct 19, 2007 10:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
true, i think
also, Breckenridge Brewery is an outfield-relay away from the stadium; they brew on-site.
by lboros on Oct 19, 2007 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's it...
by itsalemmon1019 on Oct 19, 2007 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very cool
by Alxfritz on Oct 19, 2007 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
blue moon...
by cdb on Oct 19, 2007 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Drop an orange in it
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 19, 2007 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
behind the stands
they, in fact, brew blue moon there, but we had their porter on sunday. excellent.
given that a couple of weeks ago colorado overtook california as the nation's leading beer producing state based largely on a thriving microbrewery industry, it's not surprising.
by sdesserman on Oct 19, 2007 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uhhh
His curve is basically identical to Carpenter's curve in that it doesn't really have much "top". Maybe not quite that good but Beckett's is a power hammer that'll touch 80. Not to mention the arm speed on his change is really good.
by joker24 on Oct 19, 2007 10:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i'm judging only from last night
i'm not suggesting it's a bad pitch. but i think its effectiveness derives more from the interplay w/ the fastball. i'm contrast it to a curve like wainwright / morris / kile's, which are / were curves capable of discomfiting hitters even if they know the curve it coming.
by lboros on Oct 19, 2007 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is probably true
by chuckb on Oct 19, 2007 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Power Arm
But all that being said I really think the Cardianls need a pitcher who can run it up there at 96,97,98 MPH consistently. We just need a different look in our rotation in my opinion.
Back in 2004 the Red Sox were hot but my comment was the Cardinals had too many pitchers who threw exactly the same. So each game the Red Sox were seeing the exact same pitcher.
I would like to see a guy who can just go to his fastball when need be. You all have seen Big Z dominate the Cardinals and he just brings heat when he gets in trouble.
Agree??
by ICbirdfan on Oct 19, 2007 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I haven't done
by rocKStark5 on Oct 19, 2007 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If it is accurate
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 19, 2007 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It tends to vary by park
by stl tyler on Oct 19, 2007 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
article
It's video at 30 frames per second. 3 cameras and markers on the field. Guys in the truck calibrate it using the CF camera for each batters strike zone.
It's in 28 of 30 parks and expected to be in all 30 in 08.
by rocKStark5 on Oct 19, 2007 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It'll give you the quantified break
So yeah I guess if it could quantify that Beckett's curve is similar to Carpenter's that'd be useful, but it still wouldn't do all that much for you. He had knees buckling and could throw strikes with it (and that wasn't 100% a result of his fastball) : it's a very very good pitch I can see that one.
But especially on changeups Pf/x really doesn't tell you anything. As in anything at all really. 95% of a changeup's effectiveness is in the arm speed of the pitcher, something Pf/x isn't going to measure.
by joker24 on Oct 19, 2007 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rockies
My nephew is Greg Reynolds. He was their number one pick in the draft two years ago. Number 2 pick overall!!!
He is a pitcher, went to Stanford.
He had some shoulder problems this year, and had some minor surgery and is doing well.
He would have probably been in Colorado next to his teammate Franklin Morales if he had not gotten hurt.
The Rockies are really being cautious with him and his shoulder injury, which is nice to see. He is a GREAT kid!
I am hoping he will be traded to the Cardinals- and he can give me all his family tickets since his family all lives in California.
Hear me Mr DeWitt?????
by cdavis2488 on Oct 19, 2007 11:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Reynolds is pretty untouchable
by Scarlet the Cardinal on Oct 19, 2007 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dyar Miller
I discussed this back in August...
For example, Miller said...
"It's kind of a misconception, two-seam versus four-seam. It's not how you hold the ball; it's your arm positioning..."
Actually, the degree of sink of the ball IS impacted by how you hold the ball. A 4-seamer doesn't sink as much as a 2-seamer does because (paradoxically) the greater number of seams interacting with the airstream actually generate more lift. As a result, it isn't that a 2-seamer sinks. Rather, it's that a 4-seamer doesn't sink as much as you would expect it to (which can make it look like it's rising).
Miller also said...
"If you lead with your elbow I don't care if you grip two seams, four seams, or eight seams -- your ball's not gonna sink..."
The truth is that EVERY major league pitcher leads with their elbow. See...
- http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/Examples/LeadingWithTheElbow.html
Again, let me say that I don't think Dyar Miller is stupid or a bad guy, but I do think he (and many other PCs) are ignorant. They have never looked at high speed film or gone through clips frame by frame. As a result, they don't know what they are talking about.
by thepainguy on Oct 19, 2007 11:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think some NASA physicist
So I never know whom to believe.
by sdrone on Oct 19, 2007 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's wrong
Aerodynamicists have studied this. The extra 2 seams energizes the boundary layer which (paradoxically) increases the lift.
Also, it's not that a 4-seamer rises. It just doesn't fall as much as a 2-seamer/sinker does.
by thepainguy on Oct 19, 2007 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not convinced
by SleepyCA on Oct 19, 2007 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
The reality is that the lift coefficient differs depending on the orientation of the seams.
Basically, the theory is that the number of seams interacting with the airstream influences when the boundary layer detaches. With a 4-seamer the boundary layer stays attached longer, producing a more vertical vector, which translates into more lift.
by thepainguy on Oct 19, 2007 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I respect Beckett as one of the Top 10 pitchers
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 19, 2007 12:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
To be fair
If you'll notice after the Lofton AB, for the rest of the inning he was overthrowing and having a little control problems. The Indians got the tying run to third before he got the last out.
by Cardinal70 on Oct 19, 2007 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lofton's been doing the bat flip
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 19, 2007 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They had
by rocKStark5 on Oct 19, 2007 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Antonetti
Isn't that basically what Walt wanted?
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 19, 2007 3:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Man I'd have assumed
by sdrone on Oct 19, 2007 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i don't think that was the issue
if jocketty had been able to adapt to that reality, he'd still have the job. he couldn't adapt, and didn't really want to adapt --- didn't think he should have to, given his track record.
i'm pretty sure the "new gm will answer to luhnow" line of argument is being sourced by jocketty and his pals, who have an axe to grind; it's "disgruntled ex-employee" stuff, ie not particularly accurate.
by lboros on Oct 19, 2007 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
DeWitt has said
If an offer comes across the table, say an AJ Burnett for Chris Duncan and Bryan Anderson, who wins out in the discussion? The catcher of the future vs a high powered arm the Cardinals desperately lack?
Antonetti, I'm sure, would like control over the drafts and the player development aspect of the job that is currently overseen by Jeff. Either Jeff is going to be stripped of some of his duties or Chris is going to lose some of the power other GMs would have.
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 19, 2007 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
is there any evidence anywhere
your second point is well taken. as an accomplished player-development executive, antonetti might demand oversight --- he'd want luhnow reporting directly to him. perhaps that structural feature of the organization will scare off good candidates. on the other hand, if antonetti is compatible w/ luhnow on a personal level and is sympatico w/ his approach to drafting/development, maybe it's not a problem.
by lboros on Oct 19, 2007 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yet,
The point being, without the house divided mentality that forced Luhnow and others to push for autonomy from Walt, DeWitt may not necessarily support giving Luhnow the same type of independence and push for a return for a more "normal" structure. The recent past maybe a unique situation designed to address very specific circumstances that will no longer exist (or should not longer exist) with a new GM in place.
by JMedwick on Oct 19, 2007 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bernie supports this view
by nycardfan on Oct 19, 2007 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The new power alignment if Antonelli is the man
IMHO Bernie is out to lunch if said that. If Antonelli is hired as GM and TLR signs a three year contract as manager, then the new power struggle will be Antonelli v. TLR. My hunch is that Luhnow joins forces with Antonelli (philosophically they come from the same school) opposing the old school, win now approach of TLR.
There is no middle ground between Tony LaRussa and a GM with a player development organizational philosophy. Tony believes in my way or the highway. Bobby Knight is one of his bestest pals for a reason.
If this is how things play out, DeWitt will merely have deferred the organization's transition to the new school of baseball management for 3 years. The rift will never heal between Antonelli / Luhnow and TLR / D. Duncan.
by jjray on Oct 19, 2007 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bernie was asked in his forum
Bernie's answer:
"It wouldn't be about the manager as much as it would be about Luhnow. "
http://www.stltoday.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=495503&postdays=0&postorder=asc&&star t=8
Mind you, there is nothing to support the notion that Antonetti (or anyone else) is in any way threatened by Luhnow. It's likely that the new GM will want Luhnow to report to him but this is probably true of any GM, not just Antonetti. And, since DeWitt seems to be concerned about organizational harmony, it's doubtful that DeWitt wouldn't have Luhnow report to the new GM.
I think that Luhnow's power and influence has been exaggerated in the media. He's been reporting to DeWitt b/c Walt wanted nothing to do w/ him. I tend to think that DeWitt wants Luhnow reporting to the new GM and, as long as the new GM is OK w/ Luhnow's approach (which is likely, I think, w/ Antonetti), I doubt that Antonetti will have a problem w/ Luhnow.
Bernie's already come out publicly in support of Mozeliak. It's important to remember that whenever you read his comments re: Antonetti or any other potential GM (which, in this case, are pretty snarky!)
by chuckb on Oct 19, 2007 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Antonetti could want to put someone
by nycardfan on Oct 19, 2007 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bernie may be out to lunch...
by nycardfan on Oct 19, 2007 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"cited his access to internal sources"
"But what do I know? I only talk to the owner of the team, and the manager, on an almost daily basis."
http://www.stltoday.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=495503&start=8
doesn't really matter, I suppose. But I can't help but wonder why Bernie's got such a big burr in his saddle!
by chuckb on Oct 19, 2007 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you're right, he did sound defensive
by nycardfan on Oct 19, 2007 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bernie's got a big ego...
by DiscoJer on Oct 19, 2007 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Antonetti
There is one issue: conditions under which Antonetti takes the job. That may very well require Luhnow relinquishes much of his current authority. I assume Lohnow caves on this struggle. But that is just to get Antonetti in the door. Once in the door, the power struggle clearly becomes one between the new GM and TLR. And this is a 3 year fight, not a few weeks. I'm not sure how what I know of Antonetti and his method of operation in any way squares with TLR. It will be a battle eventually if these two end up in the Cards organization.
by jjray on Oct 19, 2007 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I feel sorry for Luhnow,
by MdRedbirdFreak on Oct 19, 2007 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Get him in quick...
Let's go Red Sox!
by guayzimi on Oct 19, 2007 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beckett
I'm thinking those 3 alone would be good for 65 wins...
by RosevilleRedbird on Oct 19, 2007 4:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't if people know this yet but
by nycardfan on Oct 19, 2007 4:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jim Riggleman was with the Cards?
by Harknights on Oct 19, 2007 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs



















