whew
thank goodness that's over with.
i could recount all the hardships and bitter blows the cards and their fans had to suffer this season, but what would be the point. . . . . we all get an extra month off this year, and we need it. hell, we need a stinkin' day off; this is the first day since august 27 that the cardinals aren't playing baseball. in their deadly closing stretch of 35 games / 34 days, they went 15-20 --- the same record they opened the season with.
if that was la russa's last game for the franchise, he certainly went out on his own terms. 9 pitching changes on the final day of the season, in a game that meant nothing; 24 players into the fray. jim tracy nearly kept pace, with 7 pitching changes; the two skippers, anyway, were in no hurry for the season to end. it's often the case that season finales are over in 1:50 or thereabouts; this one lasted 3:11.
wrapping up a few odds n ends:
- of the cardinals' last 5 pennant-winning teams (2006, 2004, 1987, 1985, 1982), 4 came back the following year to finish below .500, with between 76 and 79 wins. only the 2004 team managed to finish above .500.
- the cardinals avoided breaking the franchise record for runs allowed. they finished at 829, the 3d-highest total in franchise history and 2d-highest total of the last 95 years.
- they also avoided leading the league in negative run differential. that honor went to the team they swept this weekend, the pirates, who finished at minus 122. the cards finished 2d in the nl in that category, at minus 104; the marlins were minus 101, the nats minus 100.
- the -104 run differential was 1 run worse than the 1955 team's, meaning the 2007 cards had the franchise's worst run differential in 91 years --- worst since the 1916 team, which came in at -153.
- the cards finished 11th in the league in scoring (worst since 1997) and 11th in earned-run average (worst since 2003). they were 2d in unearned runs allowed, at 88 (the marlins led with 98).
- st louis finished 30-19 against the three bottom teams in the nl central (pirates, reds, and astros); vs all other comers they were 48-65, a .425 winning percentage.
look out, ted williams.
* * * * * * * * * * *
joe strauss's article yesterday contained a fairly remarkable quote about the tensions in the front office:i will say that it's striking to note how many of this year's playoff teams have been built via player development. the rockies (not a playoff team just yet, but hopefully after tonight) are almost entirely homegrown, and the indians, angels, and dbacks mostly so; the phillies' 4 best hitters, rotation ace, and closer all came up through the system. even the yankees, lords of the checkbook, have a homegrown ace and closer, and their starters at all 4 up-the-middle positions were developed in-house. that's to say nothing of the teams that barely missed the playoffs --- brewers, braves, and dodgers drew most of their talent from within. that's why the approach bernie proposes this morning --- dewitt must open dewallet --- seems misguided to me. dewallet cannot fix what's broken with this team; sign a bunch of f.a.'s this year, and 2 or 3 years from now those acquisitions are apt to be as old and broken-down and useless as edmonds and rolen and mulder were this season. this organization's already too top-heavy; their overriding imperative is to get younger, a need they've had since 2005. they've made some progress in that regard (duncan, wainwright, hopefully ankiel and/or ryan), but they need to push it further. jumping whole-hog into the free-agent market won't get them there. only patience will.
that's not to say i think they shouldn't sign any free agents. they're gonna have to sign some; too many holes on the roster. but they need to be smart about it. i think they were extremely smart last year to stay out of the crazy free-agent market. it's a fair critique to say that the ownership has occasionally cheaped out and allowed good free agents to get away --- particularly aj burnett, who was the best free-agent pitcher on the market two years ago and wanted to play in st louis. but in the vast majority of cases the team's valuation has been accurate and their refusal to overpay has been vindicated. i don't like greedy rich guys any more than bernie does, but i don't think dewitt's tight dewallet has been the main problem with the team --- and i'm absolutely certain that raising payroll isn't the main solution going forward. it's much simpler, and more complicated, than that: they need to do a better job of evaluating talent and developing players.
* * * * * * * * * * *
once the rockies and pads settle the wild-card question, i'll post a poll to determine the community's official playoff endorsement. i'll also be soliciting your predictions for the postseason tournament. we'll have game threads here throughout the playoffs, and i'll have one tonight for the one-game playoff (technically a regular season game); during the nlds round, when there will be multiple games on most days, i'll just put up one generic thread covering all that day's contests. and while this is all going on, there's bound to be lots of news regarding our favorite team --- beginning with the official word regarding the status of our favorite manager.let's go rockies.
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comments
Comments
Game thread
by Zubin on Oct 1, 2007 9:50 AM EDT 0 recs
Ug... nevermind
by Zubin on
Oct 1, 2007 9:51 AM EDT
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Lots of time going forward
But, the criticism of Bernie's point is right on. Sure, there have been times in recent years when opening up the pocketbook to make sure the Cardinals sign an impact player would have been wise, AJ Burnett being the obvious answer.
That said, in most cases I would rather have the Cards dump the additional dough for free agent acquisitions into player development, taking risks on top dollar draft choices rather than going for slot guys. Better to pony up $2 million for Kyle Russel than 7 or 8 million for someone like Juan E.
by JMedwick on Oct 1, 2007 9:50 AM EDT 0 recs
I think the problem the Cardinals face is
However, they will need to sign a few FA's or a better idea, trade for guys with 2 years left on contracts to fill the gaps. A power bat from the OF to replace Edmonds/Encarnacion and bridge the gap to Rasmus.
The farm system has produced Molina, Pujols, Ryan, Ankiel, Duncan but it has also produced middling guys like Cavazos, Skippy, Reyes, Thompson, Jiminez, etc. The Cardinals wouldn't be in near the shape they are now if the AAA roster could have given them a legit #3 starter to step in when Carpenter was injured.
Instead, they'll find stopgaps. They'll trade for Matt Morris, sign Pineiro for 2 years, take a flyer on an aging OF, maybe trade for Renteria. They'll improve the team for 2008, which won't need much with how terrible the NL Central is and probably will be.
I think if LaRussa stays, which seems likely now, he'll turn to the front office and say "Stop giving me guys like Reyes, Jiminez and Cavazos". Unlike in New York where Joba and Melky forced Torre's hand to have to listen to Cashman about who and how to use, the failure of many of the youngsters plays to LaRussa's advantage.
by Hardcore Legend on
Oct 1, 2007 10:01 AM EDT
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Have to Agree
Signing Pineiro for 2 years would not be the end of the world, but I don't see much point in trading for Renteria (he'll cost young talent we cannot afford to lose) and hosting a Matt Morris reunion. I think Walt is smarter than that, but Tony's influence could be pivotal. After all, he brought us Mark Mulder for Dan Haren.
by Hungry Jack on
Oct 1, 2007 10:14 AM EDT
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^Which is
by JMedwick on
Oct 1, 2007 10:33 AM EDT
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If you wanted to win NOW
1B - Albert Pujols
2B - Jeff Kent
SS - Omar Vizquel
3B - Scott Rolen
LF - Barry Bonds
CF - Aaron Rowand
RF - Jim Edmonds
C - Yadier Molina
SP - Adam Wainwright
SP - Curt Schilling
SP - Livan Hernandez
SP - Bartolo Colon
SP - Joel Pineiro
Jeff Kent, Barry Bonds, Omar Vizquel will only look for 2 year contracts at most.
Likewise for Schilling and Pineiro. Colon and Hernandez would both probably want 4 year deals, although Colon may look for something shorter to re-establish himself.
That roster change would cost you about $160 M in payroll over the next 2 years, but for next year, you'd have a team that would be old, slow but score a lot of runs and eat some innings. And talent wise, it'd be better than anything the Cardinals could patch together through the farm system over the next 2 years.
Then in 2009-2010, you begin the 'correction' replacing that OF with Rasmus and the rotation with Walters, etc.
I don't condone making any of those moves, really but a team CAN be fixed quickly through spending money. Just ask the Cubs. Add Soriano, Lilly, Marquis, Floyd, Kendall, along with a healthy All-Star firstbasemen and 3rd baseman and you have a division winner.
by Hardcore Legend on
Oct 1, 2007 11:57 AM EDT
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the problem with this theory
to me, this roster illustrates how you can spend a ton of money and make the team worse, rather than than better.
by lboros on
Oct 1, 2007 12:14 PM EDT
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Rolen declined because of injury
Think of the number of good pitchers there were this year who were older. In fact, if we looked at the effective older pitchers, they probably faired much better as a group than the '06 FA signings.
I think the problem is that '07-'08 simply doesn't have good FA pitchers available. '08-09 looks much better. Perhaps we should wait on someone from this list or try to trade for them now and then work on extension into their contract.
Here's the '08-09 list of FA pitchers:
Kris Bensen BAL
A.J. Burnett TOR (may opt out)
Paul Byrd CLE
Jon Garland CWS
Tom Glavine NYM
Mike Hampton ATL
Rich Harden OAK
Orlando Hernandez NYM
Jason Jennings HOU
Randy Johnson ARZ
John Lackey LAA
Esteban Loaiza OAK
Braden Looper STL
Derek Lowe LAD
Pedro Martinez NYM
Matt Morris PIT
Mike Mussina NYY
Jamie Moyer PHI
Mark Mulder STL
Carl Pavano NYY
Jake Peavy SD
Brad Penny LAD
Odalis Perez KC
Oliver Perez NYM
Andy Pettitte NYY
Mark Prior CHC
Horatio Ramirez SEA
by nycardfan on
Oct 1, 2007 1:16 PM EDT
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the names on the proposed roster weren't 30 to 32
i wouldn't categorically exclude 30 to 32 year olds from consideration just because of rolen's injury. but i would be leery of players that age because it's been well proven that most position players decline after 30. if you're signing a 31-year-old to a 5-year deal, you run a high risk of having that player decline and/or break down. it has nothing to do with rolen's baserunning collision. it has to do with what happens when players get older.
by lboros on
Oct 1, 2007 1:42 PM EDT
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I wouldn't sign a 31 year old to a 5 year deal
It is interesting that a number of older pitchers this year have done well and have helped their teams to be in a playoff position.
by nycardfan on
Oct 1, 2007 2:50 PM EDT
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Pitching doesn't follow the age curve
Quick, Name any pitcher that has gotten a 5+ year contract and lived up to the terms.
Sign position players to big deals, draft pitchers and roll the dice.
by DriverZn on
Oct 1, 2007 3:39 PM EDT
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looks like a long list
by SleepyCA on
Oct 1, 2007 3:55 PM EDT
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The list was a toss together
If I were to spend money freely, without any restriction on spending, I'd put together a lineup of:
[code]
SS - Brendan Ryan
RF - Bobby Abreu
1B - Albert Pujols
CF - Andruw Jones
3B - Scott Rolen
LF - Jim Edmonds
C - Yadier Molina
P - Pitcher
2B - Adam Kennedy
SP - Adam Wainwright
SP - Curt Schilling
SP - Greg Maddux
SP - Braden Looper
SP - Joel Pineiro
[/code]
Is that how I'd fix/build the team? No. But a team with no real payroll restrictions can go out and overpay for 2 OF bats who did not play to their talent level in 07 and can patch together a starting rotation with two old pitchers on short term deals. Even if Schilling and Maddux have their arms fall off, you need them for however long it takes to get Carpenter back into the rotation (August?).
That's patching together a team that could a) win the NL Central and b) if the arms DON'T fall off, probably wins a 5 game series.
I don't believe in just throwing money away and ignoring the farm system and player development. However, for the Cardinals, the pitching isn't going to get much better unless they a) sacrafice the farm system in trades b) overspend for some short term fixes.
So with the pitching not really going to be spectacular, you are going to have to outslug teams (Philadelphia Phillies). I don't know if a guy like Bobby Abreu is really the player he was in 07 or if he (at 34) is still an OBP guy of .400+. I know for the last 2 years, I'd have loved to have Abreu in the #2 hole ahead of Pujols, getting on base and getting knocked in.
Overspending for fixes doesn't damage the farm system, just DeWitt's wallet.
by Hardcore Legend on
Oct 1, 2007 2:32 PM EDT
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Well your quote about LaRussa remindes me
As for how this ties into payroll, while I understand that if LaRussa returns, he will be reluctant to he his "retooling" money spent on draft picks what won't be up before 2010 or 2011 or so, I also don't think the Cards, as Bernie seems to suggest, should be throwing top dollar at middle of the order hitters. I don't mind adding veteran players who can add some value to the team (think signing someone like Shannon Stewart or trading for the likes of Burnett, Renteria or Coco Crisp) the Cards should not be bidding on top dollar free agents at this point, regardless of what LaRussa says.
by JMedwick on
Oct 1, 2007 10:32 AM EDT
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They will bid
We will then trade for Julio Lugo who AROD just put out of a job and sign Matt Clement and re-sign Piniero. The payroll will go up by $8,000,000 and we will be told that we "just missed" on several big name guys.
by Elvis on
Oct 1, 2007 6:21 PM EDT
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I think that the Cards should
by ridgesee on
Oct 1, 2007 4:32 PM EDT
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NLDS
I can't wait to see everyone's predictions compared to the "experts"
by StLHugo on Oct 1, 2007 9:56 AM EDT 0 recs
So many things about this
by MdRedbirdFreak on
Oct 1, 2007 10:01 AM EDT
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Yeah,
Don't be jealous that those guys get paid to watch sports all day.
by Jhusk on
Oct 1, 2007 5:52 PM EDT
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Last year was the suprise
This year I heard many have the Indians, Phillies, and the rest as expected to contend. The Rockies are the only shocker in my opinion.
by enoscountry on
Oct 1, 2007 10:12 AM EDT
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exactly
Only low budget teams like A's and Marlins fail to do so. This consequently shrinks the free agent market, increases FA cost, and makes the free agency approach less beneficial.
Speaking of, I think we need to do so with Yadi. I think he showed he can hit this year despite our terrible lineup.
by enoscountry on Oct 1, 2007 10:01 AM EDT 0 recs
I usually don't mind Bernie
Who exactly does he think is out there that is worth opening DeWallet for? Given this year's FA crop, such thinking will lead us to handcuff ourselves for the future. This is one year that stopgaps may actually make sense -- in 2009, we will (i) have a lot more money to spend, as Izzy/Mulder/Edmonds/Enc/Looper all come off the books, (ii) hopefully have league-minimum guys like Rasmus and Perez ready to make substantial contributions, and (iii) be considering a more attractive group of FAs. Spending now may just prevent us from taking advantage of that opportunity . . . .
by tdawg on Oct 1, 2007 10:12 AM EDT 0 recs
Agreed
by lightbulb on
Oct 1, 2007 10:34 AM EDT
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Support
by templetown on
Oct 1, 2007 3:09 PM EDT
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No one will argue agains spending money
i.e. Replacing Reyes with Colon (both 6+ ERA) doesn't help.
by DriverZn on
Oct 1, 2007 3:42 PM EDT
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the thing is
It's not like they're saying...well, instead of spending 16 mil on a 10 game win player we'll spend 8 mil on two 5 game win players. As fans we shouldn't care about his bottom line, at all.
by rocKStark5 on
Oct 1, 2007 10:51 PM EDT
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I second that emotion
But there's no way anyone could read your list of odds n ends (actually there's no way anyone could read your blog all season) and come to the conclusion that this is a fixable team in the near future. We are broken on offense, defense, and pitching. In fact, while I'm genuinely pleased that we won our last 5 games and came in with a disappointing-but-far-from-embarrassing 78-84 record, this is NOT a 78-84 team at its root. It's more like a 90-loss team.
Now obviously 90-loss teams can turn around in one year and win the NL Central with a few free agent signings (just look at the Cubs)... but ONLY only if the core of the team is fundamentally sound. Outside of Pujols I would not say that of this Cardinals team.
by briangunn on Oct 1, 2007 11:05 AM EDT 0 recs
Bernie
If he wanted to complain about the reluctance for ownership to spend money, he should have done it with the last draft, when most of the picks were overdrafts compared to the consensus. The cardinals left players, that even by their own organization, were regarded as better talent than what was taken in particular rounds due to signability.
Management stated that the money saved by not signing free agents would be redirected to the draft, and it wasn't.
by Some witty name on Oct 1, 2007 11:14 AM EDT 0 recs
Dunno about obsessed
by sdrone on
Oct 1, 2007 11:20 AM EDT
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Agreed. Too much time
by MdRedbirdFreak on
Oct 1, 2007 11:36 AM EDT
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Opening DeWallet for DeDraft
Tim Purpura went the opposite route with the Astros, and drafted the best talent available in each of the first four rounds, only to find out that Drayton McLain was also playing by Selig's book, and wouldn't pony up to sign ANY of them. Hence, Purpura, whose specialty was player development (he drafted and brought up Berkman, Lidge, Ensberg, Everett, et. al.), lost an entire top shelf draft. And was fired.
If Bernie is going to call out DeWitt to draw a line in the sand, it should be here. Just say no to slotting. Say yes to paying market value for the talent you need, come draft time.
by taiko on
Oct 1, 2007 12:20 PM EDT
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This also effects Luhnow
by taiko on
Oct 1, 2007 12:24 PM EDT
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i had the impression
which is yet another reason why it would be stupid for the cards to buy a bunch of expensive talent this winter.
by lboros on
Oct 1, 2007 12:31 PM EDT
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Looking it up now...
They also failed to receive any compensatoin picks for their departing free agents (Clemens, Pettite, etc.), because none were offered arbitration.
Then, they failed to come to terms with both of their picks in the third and fourth rounds. http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/5057770.html
Disastruous.
by taiko on
Oct 1, 2007 12:46 PM EDT
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Richard Justice's take
http://blogs.chron.com/sportsjustice/archives/2007/08/are_the_astros.html
"The excessive draft spending did not please Commissioner Bud Selig, who delivered a stern lecture to the owners at their quarterly meeting Thursday. Some who attended the meeting had the impression that Selig believed the recommended bonuses for each slot of the first five rounds was a hard slotting system, akin to the N.B.A.'s.
It is not a fixed system, however, because the union wouldn't agree to it in the negotiations for the current collective bargaining agreement."
by taiko on
Oct 1, 2007 12:56 PM EDT
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It seems apparent
I don't believe that the cardinals adherence to Selig's bonus recommendations can be held responsible for their draft picks. If that was the case would they have taken Russell as low as they did. Anybody could tell that Russell wouldn't sign for slot money, and obviously they took him knowing they would have to break Selig's recommendations.
Management had to realize the system was exploitable and they could have added several impact players with one draft, something their system lacks. However, rather than do that they reached on all of their early picks and took low ceiling picks. With as much credit the farm system gets, it's still in the lower half in talent and needs to supplement an aging roster sooner than later
by Some witty name on
Oct 1, 2007 1:20 PM EDT
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the astros draft
Kevin Goldstein has a better recap but the Astros realy blundered this year specifically.
by azruavatar on
Oct 1, 2007 1:32 PM EDT
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Rockies?
stlfan
by stlfan on Oct 1, 2007 11:29 AM EDT 0 recs
Opening up dewallet
by cardsrul on Oct 1, 2007 11:32 AM EDT 0 recs
An Attack of October Phillie-itis
Deja Vu Department: It wouldn't be October if we didn't read yet another account of how JASON MARQUIS IS IN DANGER OF BEING LEFT OFF THE POST SEASON ROSTER, because, you know, he's got this bothersome habit of pitching worse and worse as the campaign winds down.
by Urban Pawnee on Oct 1, 2007 11:44 AM EDT 0 recs
just like jason marquis
the phils have a solid top 3 in the 'pen (myers, gordon, romero) and an ace in hamels with serviceable guys lohse, moyer, and kendrick to round out the rotation. the problem for that staff arises when the underbelly of their bullpen is exposed, i.e. mesa, alfonseca, geary, etc. you'll notice that sunday, despite moyer only pitching 5 1/3 innings, that none of these guys were used. with the off days in the playoffs, the phils might be able to get by relying on only their horses.
the rox look like the better team and could very well beat the phillies at their own game, but i can't see the padres doing it - pitching and a big park is nice, but chris young has struggled mightily down the stretch and peavy will only go once in the series thanks to the playoff. a pitching-heavy team going into citizens bank band box (which should be a HUGE home field advantage, judging by the atmosphere there sunday) doesn't seem to bode well.
by moboiler on
Oct 1, 2007 12:32 PM EDT
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PS
by Urban Pawnee on Oct 1, 2007 11:49 AM EDT 0 recs
Man, I can't get away with anything here!
Oscar Minaya? Must have been a futility infielder in the Twins organization back in the 70s.
by Urban Pawnee on
Oct 1, 2007 12:12 PM EDT
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The Mets
by player2bnamedl8r on
Oct 1, 2007 12:14 PM EDT
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I thought the same thing
TSF
by TedSimmonsFan on
Oct 1, 2007 12:19 PM EDT
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Plus -
by Urban Pawnee on
Oct 1, 2007 12:24 PM EDT
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Could we get him
If so, I'm all in.
by player2bnamedl8r on
Oct 1, 2007 4:47 PM EDT
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I think we could do a lot with Jose Reyes
by nycardfan on
Oct 1, 2007 5:29 PM EDT
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It will be interesting to see . . .
One question is will the "new ballpark" fans, paying the 3rd highest average ticket prices in the country, still come out to the ballpark in comparable numbers to recent seasons to essentially watch a stopgap 2008 team, and, if they don't, what effect will that have on ownerships' willingness to spend in 2009 and beyond?
by bailorg on Oct 1, 2007 11:51 AM EDT 0 recs
The stadium
by cardsrul on
Oct 1, 2007 12:04 PM EDT
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I'm going to go out on a limb here
by stl tyler on
Oct 1, 2007 12:05 PM EDT
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I agree
by nycardfan on
Oct 1, 2007 12:59 PM EDT
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The leadoff man?
Do we need to consider Skip? He's got great outfield defense, great arm, and can play all 3 positions.
If we do, whom are our 3 regular outfielders? I assume we'd need to get rid of Duncan or Ankiel.
by sdrone on Oct 1, 2007 12:10 PM EDT 0 recs
the concern about schumaker
i'm not trying to denigrate his achievements this year, but i wouldn't count on him replicating those numbers next season.
by lboros on
Oct 1, 2007 12:17 PM EDT
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BABIP question
by cdb on
Oct 1, 2007 1:46 PM EDT
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empirically that's not true
BABIP is highly influenced by luck. if you have a high line-drive rate, then maybe the BABIP reflects a higher-than-usual degree of skill --- but schumaker's line-drive rate was 19.1 percent, which is about league average.
by lboros on
Oct 1, 2007 1:58 PM EDT
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more on BABIP
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/story/2006/1/17/92555/6441
by lboros on
Oct 1, 2007 2:03 PM EDT
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skeptically sold....
I am a beleiver in numbers, and the numbers do support your point, so I am sold. However, I will remain optimistic that the number are lying - just this once.
by cdb on
Oct 1, 2007 2:19 PM EDT
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Ha
by liam on
Oct 1, 2007 2:03 PM EDT
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i'd rather classify this one
by lboros on
Oct 1, 2007 2:17 PM EDT
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