projecting the cubs

by lboros on Jan 25, 2007 8:50 AM EST in News Comment 70 comments

jeff weaver to pittsburgh?? don't ask me; ask ken rosenthal. well, you could also ask the pittsburgh post-gazette:

It has become known that the Pirates are one of a handful of teams pursuing Weaver, with the St. Louis Cardinals being another and, possibly, the New York Mets and Seattle Mariners in the mix, too.

It is believed that Weaver's offers are in the range of two years for markedly less than the $8,325,000 he made last season. That should be affordable for the Pirates, who are projected to have about $11 million remaining in leftover money toward next season.

if this is who the cardinals are competing with, i'd say they have a fair chance of getting weaver back on appropriate terms. it would surely take an enormous inducement to lure weaver to pittsburgh; since escaping the terrible organization he began his career with, jeff has pitched in the playoffs in 4 out of 5 seasons. i don't see why he'd want to go back losing --- not unless the bucs were willing to go to three or four guaranteed years. . . . . but then, dave littlefield's so erratic the bucs just might do something that stupid. so i take it back: maybe bidding against a bad organization actually hurts the cards' chances, because bad organizations are more likely to overbid on bad players and inflate their asking prices.

whatever. attempting to predict dave littlefield's behavior is not how i plan to spend my morning.

jeff sackmann posted his team preview of the cubs today at Beyond the Boxscore and eyeballs the cubs at 86 wins --- a 20-game improvement over last season. that's right in synch with david pinto's estimate of a couple weeks ago. are these guys high? i decided to run a quick PECOTA aggregation, the same exercise that projected the cardinals to win about 86 games. cutting quickly to the chase: my PECOTA-derived estimate trues right up with sackmann's and pinto's. it's slightly more optimistic, in fact; i've got the cubs at 87 wins.

here's how it breaks down. first, i've got the cubs improving their offense by about 100 runs, or roughly 10 wins:

	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	\|	AVG	OBP	SLG	\|	runs created	base runs
CHI PECOTA	5540	1518	304	32	208	464	\|	.274	.337	.453	\|	846	817
2006	5587	1496	271	46	166	395	\|	.268	.319	.422	\|	745	729

"base runs" is a run-scoring model that's slightly more accurate than runs created; i ran both formulas to see if the respective year-to-year comparisons matched, and they essentially did. if we split the difference between base runs and runs created, we get an estimate of 831 runs scored --- probably a league-leading total. here's how i distributed the at-bats in my projection:

infield: lee 500, derosa 450, cedeno 450, itzuris 350, ramirez 539
outfield: soriano 576, jones 400, floyd 337, murton 300, pagan 250, pie 150
catchers: barrett 450, blanco 151

i then added 337 at-bats' worth of replacement-level bench play, and 300 at-bats for the pitchers. note that PECOTA anticipates a significant improvement in the cubs' plate discipline --- nearly 70 more walks this year than last. if'n your curious, PECOTA's projection for derrek lee isn't particularly rosy; it places his OPS in the high .800s, which neighborhood he inhabited for three consecutive years prior to his big breakout in 2005.

ok, now for the pitching staff:

	GS	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	HR	\|	ERA	WHIP	\|	total runs
CHI PECOTA	162	1440	1403	704	612	11759	193	\|	4.40	1.399	\|	764
2006	162	1439	1396	758	687	1250	210	\|	4.74	1.448	\|	834

here the cubs pick up 70 runs, or about 7 games. in this telling, the distribution of starts goes: zambrano 32, marquis 30, lilly 27, hill 26, marshall 18, prior 10, and wade miller 8, with the last 11 going to a generic replacement-level pitcher with a 5.75 era. the bullpenners are dempster, howry, eyre, cotts, kerry wood, ryu, mateo, novoa, ohman, and wuertz, plus a catch-all replacement-level category (35 innings) with a 5.00 era. i estimated 60 unearned runs to derive the overall runs-allowed figure; the cubs coughed up an abysmally high figure last year, 76, but they were below 50 in each of the prior three seasons.

putting these numbers into the pythagorean won-loss calculator, we end up with:

	runs scored	runs allowed		w	l	pct
cubs	831	764		87	75	.537
cards	781	735		86	76	.531

look, it's only january; they're only made-up numbers. but from here, it looks like it might be an interesting summer . . .

0 recs | Comment 70 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Under new management...

It's been a few years since the rivalry has had any playoff impliciations...

A quick question for anyone with a dataset to mine...how often do clubs under new managers make the post-season? More or less than expected by chance?

by brdsnbt on Jan 25, 2007 9:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Generally,

clubs with new managers were very bad the year before. I would guess that it would be pretty hard to quantify. Even if you looked at marginal improvement I am not sure how much that effect is applicable to the Cubs' situation.

A simple "this is how many teams have improved by 20 wins" would be interesting enough to me though. An hour on Baseball-Reference could answer that. Even the new skipper part too I guess.

by plh903 on Jan 25, 2007 9:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

'Stros

I recall Garner doing pretty well the year he was installed.

So says, The Dude

by Titus Pullo on Jan 25, 2007 9:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, now come on!

That's not exactly fair... He's THE Phil Garner! The man could manage a little league team to the World Series!

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Jan 25, 2007 9:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

or vice versa

n/t

Rabid Redbird

by gthedamned on Jan 25, 2007 11:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Or Bob Brenly

Another illustrious name who was successful in his first year.

In fact, just about anyone who follows Buck Showalter is a rousing success (i.e. Joe Torre)

2006 World Champs! Inconceivable! You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

by BozCardsFanSF on Jan 25, 2007 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Still The Cubs

That's my personal, standard issue response to anything that anyone says about how good the Cubs are going to be, how it's finally going to be their year, etc. etc. etc. Until they prove to me that they won't somehow screw up this season, that half of their pitching staff will have their arms literally fall off, then that remains my answer. I'm sure it's not very intelligent, and one of these days it will probably blow up in my face, but there it is. For me,

They're still the Cubs.

I just don't believe in them. And, also, specific to this year, I don't think they made very good moves. No matter how much it cost them. A left handed, fly ball pitcher in Wrigley? Brilliant! The starting pitcher who led all of baseball last year in home runs allowed, coming here, to our windy little band box? Brilliant! We need to cut down on our strikeouts, you say? Let's get that Soriano fellow! Brilliant!

Sorry. Still the Cubs.

by the red baron on Jan 25, 2007 9:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

This is gonna be a tough year

Rotoauthority is predicting the Cards to have the 7th best rotation in the NL. The problem is, it predicts three NL Central Teams--i.e., the Brewers, the Stros, and the Flubs--to have stronger rotations. In my opinion, the Cubs have a better line-up than we do. Plus, I can't forget how they wiped the floor with us all last year.

Point is: I think we face much stiffer competition this year than last. I'd wager that the NL Central champ will need more than 90 wins to take the division.

So says, The Dude

by Titus Pullo on Jan 25, 2007 9:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You Could Be Right

Personally, though, I like Zips and PECOTA's systems better than Roto Authority. I know, I'm only saying that because they like the Cards better. Seriously, though, they have a much better track record, in my opinion. Whatever that's worth.

by the red baron on Jan 25, 2007 10:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That list is a joke.

Plus, he is a huge Cubs fan. Beyond the Box Score points out that the Cubs starters are PECOTA projected at,

* Zambrano, 3.70
* Hill, 4.24
* Ted Lilly, 4.64
* Marquis, 4.76
* Prior, 4.93
* Sean Gallagher, 5.04
* Guzman, 5.08
* Marshall, 5.34

Roto gets a cumulative ERA of 4.11. Woo-hoo! This year's the year!

I am not paying $10 to find out the specifics, but needless to say I think that list is a bit wishcasting.

by plh903 on Jan 25, 2007 10:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That guy is pretty good

He IS a cubs fan but his projections were good last year. I bought the guide. Noone is 100% right, but I would say he is pretty good.

That being said, I think he is counting on Mark Prior too much, I would put the cubs ERA more around 4.55

2006 Cardinals- An underdog story

by Born in 82 on Jan 25, 2007 11:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Their bullpen

had better be damn impressive to pull that collection of drek down to a collective 4.11 ERA.

Oh, the burden of stupid people.

by Solanus on Jan 26, 2007 10:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

RotoAuthority is ran by a Cubs fan...

so don't take what it says too seriously.

Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Jan 25, 2007 10:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I'm not buying it. Plus, the Cards' pen would have to be downright bad for our pitching staff to be worse than Houston's.

by chuckb on Jan 25, 2007 12:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

plus...

... he included Clemens in the Astros rotation, which pulled up the stats quite a bit.

by kindred on Jan 25, 2007 8:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

First, I'm with Red Baron,

we ARE talking about the Cubs. I'll believe it when I see it.

But I would be interested in seeing an in-depth analysis of Pineilla's managing style, strengths/weaknesses, etc.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jan 25, 2007 9:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Pirates and Weaver

Speculated here a couple of days ago
http://whiteyball.wordpress.com/

by whiteyball on Jan 25, 2007 9:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Boras won't give up

This is what he does when teams don't give in. He drags it out, and tries to make it seem like there are other bidders out there (Robothal is just passing along info that agents and/or GMs are pushing).

Maybe he hooks one of these other GMs in the process, but I still think Weaver's only wants to sign with one team and it would be stupid to bid against 2 of the worst GMs in baseball (Littlefield and Bavasi).

and if I'm wrong and Weaver leaves, then it wasn't meant to be and we move on.

by musial6 on Jan 25, 2007 9:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Whiteyball

Just wanted to break in and recommend the guys' website. Very nicely done. Good on you, Whitey.

by the red baron on Jan 25, 2007 10:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nothing wrong with a little summer race..

Now if it is a fall race, late September, that's a different story. Even though the Cubs got the better of the BOB last year, I'm with everyone else who thinks the moves they made are really strange.

I hope they do keep Soriano in CF, because that should be fun to watch. As for the pitching, I can't WAIT until the first time we tee off on Marquis.

My first and only chance so far to watch a game at Busch III, it was the early May game when Marquis was taking on the Rockies (sorry, no link needed). I took my dad and brother (evil cubs fan), and it was perfect...except that it seemed like batting practice for Colorado.

Long live the Cardinals and the sad excuse for a baseball team with a weak name....Cubbie Bears...

Pujols just did WHAT...

by gforce on Jan 25, 2007 9:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

2008

My mom and brother (both Scrubs fans) have been saying for years that 2008 would be their year. These numbers make it start to sound like it might happen.

If you can count on one thing, it's Albert Pujols, but if there's a second thing, it's that the Scrubs will always find a way to lose.

I hope we can count on the Scrubs.

Cubs are Scrubs

by Arambar on Jan 25, 2007 10:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Off-topic: Ted Simmons Trade

LB:

In yesterday's discussion there were comments about the Simmons trade. Coincidently I stumbled upon this discussion last night:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/hall_of_merit/discussion/ted_simmons/

I think you may enjoy reading it.

by Zubin on Jan 25, 2007 10:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Maybe

I can finally get back to hating the Cubs with my entire being. Lately, it's been a little bit of a pity-party in my head and I don't like that one bit.

I truly hate everything about them, the organization, that shitty park, the (ahem) history, and most of all, their fan-base. I live in Chicago and lately it feels like you are going out of your way to pick on the kid that got picked last in dodgeball, when he already feels terrible about himself. And that makes you a bad person.

by plh903 on Jan 25, 2007 10:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ok, LET'S GET IT ON

I'd like to take a second to make it clear that I've never had pity on the Cubs. heh.

I do like Wrigly, and I'd like to see more games there - if Cubs/Cards tickets weren't impossible to get.

But I look FORWARD to cheering for Soriano strikeouts or just waiting for a balll to be hit toward Jones.

This more-wins-than-the-Cards thing ain't gonna work for me. At all.

by sdrone on Jan 25, 2007 10:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Uh..

not really rooting for the Cubs to get more wins than the Cards, I mean, I'm a Cards fan.

But, if they aren't such dogs I can feel better about hating them so much. God knows I don't want them to win. Lately, they haven't even been in the discussion.

I don't know, it would make me happy if they didn't win 50 games next year. You know why? Because I am already hearing the incessant bragging. Maybe that's more what I need, for the dipshit fans to have something to rave about than to have them actually win games.

I do really, really, really hate Wrigley though.

by plh903 on Jan 25, 2007 10:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lee's PECOTA....

Is far too low, Nate Silver acknowledge that in his chat last week. The computer cannot distinguish between type of injuries, so last year unfairly weighted down Lee's numbers.

by Brock20 on Jan 25, 2007 10:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Murton

The only question I really have about your AB distribution is how many AB's Murton gets. The Cubs have been and continute to be tyring to pedle J. Jones, in which case Murton would be picking up a large number of those AB's.

by JMedwick on Jan 25, 2007 10:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

the Floyd/Murton atbats might be switched. So far, in teh press, Piniella is committing to getting a lot of work for Murton.

by sdrone on Jan 25, 2007 10:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well given the

OBP skills of much of the Cubs lineup, in particular Soriano and DeRosa, if I were a Cubs fan, I would want a lineup like this:

Soriano
Murton
Lee
Am-Ram
Floyd
Barrett
DeRossa
Itzuris
Pitcher

I wouldn't want Jones anywhere near my lineup and moreover, would idealy want to trade him to get another starter who can eat innings, because lets face it, when Marquis is getting the second most starts on your staff, that isn't a good thing.

by JMedwick on Jan 25, 2007 10:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

if i give murton more at-bats

it increases the projected run output. murton projects as the team's 2d-best-hitting outfielder, behind soriano --- 6.7 rc/27, or about equal to jim edmonds' projection for this season.

i'm advised by a cub fan that ronny cedeno's at-bats are too high, and that ryan theriot will probably get the bulk of the at-bats as the backup infielder. that swap produces no appreciable change in the bottom line; they're both projected to roughly .700 ops

by lboros on Jan 25, 2007 11:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, Cedeno

is in the doghouse bigtime. Everyone conveniently forgets they thought he'd be great.

by sdrone on Jan 25, 2007 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess if this is right

the Cards (gulp!) need Jeff Weaver. Didn't we determine (and by "we", I mean LB) a couple of weeks ago that replacing Franklin w/ Weaver in the rotation was worth about 2 wins? Weaver, therefore, becomes the difference maker! I still couldn't stomach giving him as many as 3 guaranteed years. 2 and an option is OK w/ me but he would help this year.

I think the Pirates being in it hurts rather than helps b/c bad teams are more likely to offer ridiculous contracts in hopes of getting to .500 or whatever. I could see the Pirates guaranteeing a 3rd or maybe even a 4th year. Weaver's an idiot if he ends up there but...Gil Meche went to KC for 5 and 55. Stranger things have happened.

I just don't understand why the Pirates would risk blocking one of their good young pitchers for 3 years w/ a league average pitcher like Weaver. I guess that's why he's Dave Littlefield.

by chuckb on Jan 25, 2007 12:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure that it isn't

agent-generated fluff. Maybe they've made some phonecalls, but it makes very little sense that they are serious players. Or really, that "serious players" for the services of Jeff Weaver really exist.

If Walt is willing to take a hard line and bring him back on our terms, that's fine with me. It's scary how much he might be a difference maker. Although, conversely, it's scary how much the acquisition might let TLR use the options on Reyes, Wainwright, or Thompson. I'll throw a fit.

As an aside, what's the defense worth? Or are those effects showing up solely in the pitcher projections?

by plh903 on Jan 25, 2007 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Littlefield

acknowledged their interest this morning in an interview on XM.

by OCCardsFan on Jan 25, 2007 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The numbers..

show a tight race, and if everything is according to projections then it could be a nail-biting summer. That's why it is important to play the Weaver saga out, and continue to find ways to strengthen our outfield. The one thing numbers don't effectively project is the injuries. And the Flubs have had a nice run of could of, should have beens, if not for the injuries. Maybe the tide has turned for them, then again they are the Flubs, and who knows who and when the next Bartman will show up.

go crazy folks..........

by wwbd on Jan 25, 2007 12:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Deja vu all over again

On March 12, 2006, a similar thread predicted, by consensus, that the Cubs would be a threat with win totals in the mid- 80's.

lb's reasonable prediction was:

i'll guess 85 wins
85-77
755 runs scored
715 runs allowed
4th place

In fact, the 2006 Cubs went 66-96, scoring 716 runs and allowing 834 (slightly underperforming their pythagorean projection if I figured it correctly).

SO, don't fall in love with preseason projections, especially when the Cubs are involved. I doubt they'll catch as many bad breaks as last year, but neither will we.

I'm more concerned about the Brew Crew than the Cubs.

by madridbend on Jan 25, 2007 1:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

"guess" vs. Pecota

and, uh, D Lee.

by sdrone on Jan 25, 2007 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm all for...

a nail biter summer. I believe the projections show anywhere from 3 to 5 teams being in within 5-8 games of each other at season end (Cards, Cubs, Astros, Brewers, Reds). I love the Cardinals, but more than that I love baseball. High tension games in August/September, every team giving a hard nine every game. I'll take competition over a Cardinal landslide any day.

"Baseball is the only field of endeavor where a man can succeed three times out of ten and be considered a good performer." - Ted Williams

by WiscCard on Jan 25, 2007 1:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That's exactly

what I said last year. Then I aged about 15 years in the last two weeks of September.

Cardinal landslides are a beautiful thing.

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Jan 25, 2007 1:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Small Bears

The Scrubs will, of course, find a way to lose. Yet, there is something intriguing about the 07 team. Its not as much Soriano, Piniella, the money spent or the annual disillusioned belief coming from the Northside - its their collection of pitchers. Take a look at their current roster. There are twenty guys with legitimate potential, many young and due. Now, I know one of them is named Marquis and we could find fault with each of them - but - twenty is an impressive number and the likelihood, on competition alone, of them finding a handful that perform plus some depth is very interesting. Post-season? We'll see. But they will compete. Hendry has finally figured out that it will take more than hope in Prior and Wood. Marquis will be lucky to make the cut.

Cotts
Dempster
Guzman
Hill
Howry
Lilly
Marmol
Marquis
Marshall
Mateo
Miller
Novoa
Ohman
Prior
Rusch
Ryu
Wood
Wuertz
Zambrano

by Hinkster on Jan 25, 2007 2:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

weaver to the bucs

i like the deal for the pirates (which i guess means that i don't like it for the cards). according to the 2007 PECOTA projections, the bucs have plus defenders at 3 infield positions (1b, ss, 3b), and could have 2 in the outfield (rf, cf if mccutcheon wins the job). if the following conditions are filled, it would be a very good signing for the pirates:

weaver doesn't lose his mechanics again like he did in anaheim, and is a groundball machine from the get-go.
weaver doesn't take away innings from somebody who is young and has earned them.

by sjoshi on Jan 25, 2007 2:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

so why does this not make sense for STL?

if everyone is healthy, we've got plus defenders at at least that many positions - C, 1B, 2B, 3B, and CF. Pittsburgh's defensive efficiency was dead last in baseball last year. I understand they could improve - but not THAT much.

by nycbirdo on Jan 25, 2007 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Again I disagree

Weaver would probably do OK there. Pitt's defense is pretty good. He'd have fewer wins but his ERA wouldn't be vastly higher in Pitt than it would be in StL. But that's not the point.

The point is that Pittsburgh has good young pitching that is ready or almost ready to go into the rotation. Littlefield's obviously not planning on trading any of it so why block the path of VanBenschoten or Bullington or Burnett or possibly Lincoln with a league average pitcher like Weaver? Why spend money just to say you spent some money? They've already got Shawn Chacon to pick up the pieces if they're youngsters aren't quite ready. To sign Weaver away from the Cards, you'd have to figure they'd offer him 3 years at least which means 1 less opportunity for those young pitchers for 3 years! It's a bad signing for the Pirates (if it happens).

by chuckb on Jan 25, 2007 5:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Alan Benes retires

InsideStl.com has a nice piece on Alan Benes calling it a career. Classy guy. Too bad it didn't work out better for him.

by DCGreg on Jan 25, 2007 3:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for that link

It's a shame it didn't work out for Alan, but it certainly was nice to read a report like that one praising his perspective and down-to-earth attitude. Here's hoping he really does get hooked up with a nice position in the front office, and can use that to make a nice career in baseball "from the other side" for him and his family. Sounds like he's perfect for the job, and he certainly deserves a break.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Jan 25, 2007 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Alan Benes

I have met him on a couple of occasions. He even spent a few hours chatting with me and a friend during Spring Training last year. (along with bullpen catcher Jeff Murphy) Alan is a first class guy all the way and has a very deep understanding of pitching mechanics and how to pitch. He had to learn this stuff the hard way by fighting through very painful injuries and rehabs after being a guy with unlimited potential when entering the big leagues. His experiences would be very valuable to young arms in the system to explain to them why their mechanics are so important and that he has first hand felt the results of what happens when yours are a little off. I hope this great guy gets a spot in our system somewhere helping out our prospects.

How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Jan 26, 2007 10:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

2006 Cubs

Does anyone know how many games the 2006 Cubs were projected to win?

"Keep swinging maybe your lefty"

by cardfan2 on Jan 25, 2007 4:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Cubs 2006 projections

Apparently, several systems showed the 2006 Cubs likely to finish with 81 to 87 wins.

diamond mind 85-77 RS 749 RA 710
pecota 81-81 RS 739 RA 737
zips 87-75 RS 754 RA 679

http://yankeefan.blogspot.com/2006/03/2006-diamond-mind-projection-blowout.html

by madridbend on Jan 25, 2007 10:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

VEB target for a backend SP

Jamey Wright appears to have signed with the Rangers. From Rotoworld ~

Rangers signed RHP Jamey Wright to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.
Wright gets enough grounders that he can be adequate insurance for the Rangers. He's definitely not someone who should be in the rotation at the start of the year, but if he's needed as a starter for a few weeks at some point, he could keep the team in some games.

Not really that miffed about it but if this was all it would take to get Wright, I wish Walt would have put in a flier. This is almost all upside for the Rangers and I wouldn't have minded the Cardinals having Wright at Spring Training to back up Kip Wells...

by azruavatar on Jan 25, 2007 4:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

projections, stats...

Projections and stats albeit good and fun to look at are just that a projection...I look at them a bit but don't get hung up on them...They are good for seeing what talent you have but prediciting wins to me is so hard.

Our beloved birds were not picked to beat SD let alone win it all. The experts have looke dlike fools during the NFC playoffs.

Someone once said thats why they play the games...It's so tough, what if a career 250 ba guy hits 340 or has that one monster yr...

Example look at Gary Matthews JR...a lifetime journey man who had that monster yr last yr and actually had texas compete for a bit(ok maybe not that long) but at the begging of the season youd go ok heres matthews projections...and then he has that monster yr I'm still calling a fluke(my opinion) so thats the tough part in my opinion about projections the human element.

But like most of you i still get queasy if I read anything about the cubs remotely being better than the cards..

Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Jan 25, 2007 5:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

variance

one thing to remember about a projection system like DMB is that there are hundreds or thousands of seasons ran to come to a median conclusion....

The projection will read something like, the Cardinals win the division 65 times out of a hundred (which may still be more than any other team, but obviously that would still leave 35 times when the Cards don't win the division)..many team projection systems also give a range of wins..

but just because a team is more likely to win, say, 88 games than it is to win 81 games doesn't mean it will win 88 games (just like when playing poker, if the same hand is played over and over again then the percentages of winning should come closer and closer to the mathematically predictable outcome, but when the hand is only played once then that 8% chance of winning could happen, that doesn't mean it was the most likely outcome, though)

there are so many variables that can happen in one season that it is extremely hard to predict exactly which scenario will play out...but if the seasons were played over and over again without a change in rosters or a change in the ages or abilities of the players then the reality would probably come closer and closer to the projection...just like the poker hand...

by tenniseleven on Jan 26, 2007 5:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ronnie B

just a thought since no one has bit on him think the cards could trade miles with something else for OF bat and sign Belly to a utility role? What about David bell, Nevin or any others in this article?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove06/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=2742293&l pos=spotlight&lid=tab5pos2

Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Jan 25, 2007 6:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

To accomplish what?

n/t

by sdrone on Jan 25, 2007 11:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

MLB Trade Rumors Says

The Mariners are in the lead for Weaver. I guess he really doesn't care about winning.

A walk is a waste of three pitches-Bob Gibson

by orlando card on Jan 25, 2007 7:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

that cannot

be true...i read that just now too and i just cant believe he would go from the world series champs who helped him turn around his career to a consistent losing team without duncan to save his ass

by MarcGldstn on Jan 25, 2007 7:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

weaver likely to sign with Mariners

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6408486 it's all about the benjamins. 1 to 2 year deal, don't know why he'd prefer seattle over the team he won a championship, other then money.

Future Redbirds

by erik on Jan 25, 2007 7:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

oops. i guess i could've read

orlando cards' post

Future Redbirds

by erik on Jan 25, 2007 7:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ken Rosenthal

isn't often wrong, and the story sounds like he talked to someone in the Cardinals organization. What's strange is the line that says Weaver "is deciding whether to push for a one or two-year deal." I thought all this time he was pushing for a longer deal.

Oh, well. If Mariners are simply outbidding the Cards, as it seems, it's not worth it. Save our dough for something more valuable.

by DCGreg on Jan 25, 2007 7:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

per ken rosenthal:

"The loss of Weaver likely would leave the Cardinals to start the season with an all-right-handed rotation of right-handers..."

well I guess maybe we shouldnt take this guy too seriously after all...

by MarcGldstn on Jan 25, 2007 9:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

OMG

LOL. That's weak. Nice journalism. And even worse editing.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Jan 25, 2007 9:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

all right-handers

Refresh my memory, what left-handed starters made our post-season roster for the WS run? As someone else pointed out, Weaver would not solve this problem. I would like to have a left-handed starter but let's not get too worked up about it. Our bullpen is stacked with lefties. That's the equalizer.

by jjray on Jan 25, 2007 10:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Of course the gain of Weaver

would also leave the Cardinals to start the season with an all-right-handed rotation of right handers..."

by Red in Chicago on Jan 25, 2007 9:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Rock solid in...wait 'til next year

Hope springs eternal in Cubbie land and earlier than most teams as they report to camp the earliest every year. And lately whether it's been Sammy leaving early or just the cold reality of being eliminated from post-season contention in August, I just can't take the Scubbies seriously. So here is my top ten of why the Cubs will underperform in '07.

Starting pitching- Zambrano (his control was off a bit last year and I feel he is due for an injury year), Prior/Wood (someone say injury), Lilly (Mr. league average), Marquis/Miller (how much are they paying these guys!), and Marshall/Hill/rookies et al. I guess it couldn't be worse than last year.
Musical closer- when was the last time we didn't have a closer controversy at some point during the season in Cubbie land. Borowski?, Gordon?, Rob Beck? Now we get to watch the Dempster/Wood/Howry implosion.
How good is the offense? What if 2005 was a career year for D.Lee? The above average Lee we got used to before 2005 was not terrible, but why should we expect the MVP caliber Lee back in 2007. How about Soriano? What if regresses to his career .325 obp? Why waste all that power at leadoff? Is Ramirez really the premier 3b he is being paid for? Can Barrett come back after injury? Can Jones/Floyd continue to produce? Will the Izturis/DeRosa/Cedeno infeild hit...at all? I'm not sure this team makes the big offensive jump expected. This is still a free swinging team looking at a lot of solo homers.

All my friends became Cardinal fans and grew up happy and liberal. I became a Cub fan and grew up imbittered and conservative." -- George Will

by wannabeGedman on Jan 25, 2007 10:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

P-D reporting

Weaver close to signing with Seattle....so much for wanting to be in the playoffs every year.

by Big Red on Jan 26, 2007 12:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Here's something

that will generate some yuks. Go to this page:

http://www.goatriders.org/

and scroll down about halfway. I guess this was supposed to be a humorous insult to the Cards, but in typical Cubfan fashion it's a total snafu. Yep, I sure will enjoy watching the 2007 Cubs help kick the Birds to a repeat World Series--won't you? Cubfans are the best, really. Thanks, GROTA.

by rockin redbird on Jan 26, 2007 2:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

i was laughing

until i saw:

"Jumping off a Cliff
A message of Death"

sweet jesus. hopefully jason marquis can bring him back from the edge...

"...in winter, when there's no baseball... I stare out the window and wait for spring." -Rogers Hornsby

by SleepyCA on Jan 26, 2007 3:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hee hee

I like that photo shop because the picture of Albert is from him running home into a big dog pile after he hit a walk off homer during the Cardinals World Championship season of 2006.

And the Cubbie just struck out.

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Jan 26, 2007 3:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Clutchness

SG at Replacement Level Yankees Blog compares clutchness of Jeter, Ortiz, Sheffield, Giambi, Matsui and our boy Pujols. He was really looking at Yankee players, but says this about Albert:

Albert Pujols is clutch-defined. According to the data I'm looking at, Pujols had 629 plate appearances over the last three seasons where his team was trailing and hit .366/.429/.698 for an OPS of 1.127 and a wOBA of .466

http://yankeefan.blogspot.com/2007/01/more-on-clutchness.html

I've been checking in there because RG always runs Diamond Mind projections of ZiPS. He ran one off Chone earlier and came up with similar results for the Cubs, but different results for our boys ...

http://yankeefan.blogspot.com/2006/12/extremely-early-projections.html

Has anyone read any critique of Dave Pinto's line up toy? A saber guy I respect greatly told me he's read several things blasting Pinto's toy and says it simply doesn't work. He mentioned tangotiger and other's, but I can't find a thing on the subject.

by RedbirdRay on Jan 26, 2007 9:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Oh, and Fungoes

Has a very nice article comparing Albert's first 6 years as a Cardinal to others...

http://stl.sabr.org/fungoes/

by RedbirdRay on Jan 26, 2007 9:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Albert

and this weeks SI, in an article about Travis Hafner, has a data box comparing hitters with a stat that I can't remember now but roughly similar to VORP (I think it was something like runs over replacement level), Albert is head and shoulders above everyone else (as the note under the table confirms).

by ArkansasTravs on Jan 26, 2007 10:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs