I'm dreaming of a Japanese outfield..

by gforce on Jan 25, 2007 12:56 PM EST

Since we like to discuss things that are never, ever going to happen, here's one that would really be something. If we do let Eckstein walk, we are going to need a lead-off batter. I know the Mariners would be crucified for letting him go, but Ichiro has as good a right as anyone to test the free-agent waters.

Per mlbtraderumors.com and this article it looks like Seattle will try to get him locked up in the Spring.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/301082_mari25.html

Any chance So and Ichiro are long-time buddies that always wanted to play together? As far-fetched as it sounds, the Redbirds would be in a good spot money-wise to make a run at him.

I don't do polls or anything like that, but I would like to hear if you think this is as out there as I do. I personally would love to see him patrolling Busch III from any of the outfield spots, and I know Albert wouldn't mind it either.

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So and Ichiro

i'm pretty sure played on the same team back in Japan, no clue if they are buddies or not though. I seriously doubt the Mariners will let him walk. Their ownership is Japanese, and Ichiro is the face of the franchise.

Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Jan 25, 2007 1:31 PM EST reply actions

please no

Some team is going to massively overpay for his services, and I hope it isn't the Cardinals. Three out of the last four years he's basically been a healthy version of 2004 Darin Erstad. He's not a difference-maker, especially when the Cardinals have Colby Rasmus in line for center field.

by DanUpBaby on Jan 25, 2007 2:48 PM EST reply actions

C'mon Dan that's just misleading

Darin Erstad doesn't deserve to be a starter in the majors but Ichiro, while not being a superstar in reality, is still a good player.

He's never posted below a .350 OBP and has 4 years of .370+ in '01, '02, '04, '06 (.381,.388,.414,.370)
He's an excellent baserunner stealing averging 39 SBs a year over the last 6 years. He also has an 80% sucess rate at stealing bases over 6 years getting caught around 10 times a year. Those are good numbers.
He's has the following EQAs in 04,05,06 .305,.280,.282 He's never posted a WARP3 under 8.2 and his last three years were 10.3, 8.9, 9.0
His lowest OPS+ is a 109.
By all accounts he's an excellent defensive RF. I know you hate FRAA but he's around 6-8 runs there. Pinto likes him as a top 10 fielder at both RF and CF. Honestly, I'd rather have him backing up Jimmy next year than Juan.

He lacks power and his OPS reflects that. Ichiro would fit well at the top of the order but I wouldn't want him to take Rasmus' spot. I would very much like to see him in RF over Juan as I think Ichiro is a far better player.

He probably will be overpriced in the current market. PECOTA pegs him at 35M over the next 5 years. 24M for 08-11 which is when the Cardinals would be looking at him. If they could get him to sign at 3year/30M contract, I'd be thrilled. If he starts getting into more than 10M a year, Ichiro probably is selling his name at that point rather than his baseball skills. But to say he's 2004 Erstad (Erstad had a .263 EQA, 16 SB, .346 OBP, and a 95 OPS+) is just wrong.

by azruavatar on Jan 25, 2007 5:11 PM EST up reply actions

Not to Mention

Of all players with at least 4,000 PA since 1957, Suzuki's got the lowest GIDP per PA rate.

(Via Baseball Crank)

Hopefully Sweet Lou's GIDP tendencies carry over to his teams over the next few years.

by liam on Jan 25, 2007 5:55 PM EST up reply actions

how is it misleading?

His OPS+ has been 109 two of the last three years, and 110 the year before that. Erstad was, when healthy, the best defensive center fielder in the league. (I realize that the Angels, in their infinite wisdom, played him at first base in 2004, but he was the best proxy I could come up with on short notice.)

My issue with a possible Ichiro deal is that he's going to get paid like a premier player, a future hall of famer, and he isn't. His best skill is durability, and he's on the wrong side of 30. If JD Drew got five years, $70 million, what's Ichiro going to get?

by DanUpBaby on Jan 26, 2007 12:46 PM EST up reply actions

and

certainly Ichiro is a much better player than Juan, three or four wins probably, but I think the Cardinals would have to pay more--in talent or cash--than that's worth.

by DanUpBaby on Jan 26, 2007 12:48 PM EST up reply actions

Ichiro steals 1.5 times as many bases

annually as Erstad did in 2004. Ichiro's value comes from being a high contact and high OBP player. I just don't think there's a comparison between Ichiro and Erstad circa 2004. Ichiro still manages to post WARP3's in the 8's.

The number of Cardinal position players to post over an 8 Warp3 last year: Pujols, Edmonds

Erstad's 2004 Warp3: 5.1

Ichiro would be one of our top offensive contributors and he makes far more sense at the top of the order than Eckstein does (whose OBP isn't that great and he has very little speed on the bases).

Regardless, I agree that he probably will parlay his name into a 50-60M 4 year contract that he isn't worth. He's a very good player but he isn't really the superstar he's sometimes portrayed as -- mainly due to his total lack of power.

by azruavatar on Jan 26, 2007 2:35 PM EST up reply actions

Cardinals players with a Warp3

was obviously Rolen and not edmonds.

In fairness a full season of Duncan may have managed a 8 as well.

by azruavatar on Jan 26, 2007 2:36 PM EST up reply actions

erstad

I hate to belabor what was an off-handed comparison, but Erstad played first base that year, which depressed his WARP numbers on both offense and defense. Erstad-the-center-fielder was worth like 20 runs over an average center fielder on defense.

by DanUpBaby on Jan 26, 2007 2:48 PM EST up reply actions

As a CF no....right field....hell yeah

The Cardinals aren't known to 'massively overpay' for anybody, but I think if there is any kind of let-down this year (Cubs and there big-bucks anyone?) things might change a bit next winter.

Right now it still seems like Eck will be brought back. At least that is the gut-feeling I have given the lack of SS options available. Since he won't break the bank, the team is left with a few key pieces. Everybody already assumes a home-town discount is coming for a certain LH pitcher on the South Side of Chicago...and possibly a closer?

Other than that the OF is the only place where I can money being thrown. I also don't think Ichiro as a true CF, but I would pencil him into the No. 2 spot ahead of Albert from day one. Once Colby is ready (08?) you then have Colby, Ichiro, Albert, Rolen...

Pujols just did WHAT...

by gforce on Jan 25, 2007 10:37 PM EST up reply actions

I am foggy on this

But I think the Cards called up So from AAA when they went to Seatle. I think it was So's first year. The Cards did this so former teamates and friends could visit and play against each other. It was a classy move by the Cards

by nybirdfan on Jan 25, 2007 6:28 PM EST reply actions