In Defense of Juan

by Titus Pullo on Jan 15, 2007 3:57 PM EST Comment 30 comments

It's a tough time to be Juan Encarnacion. First, people said that they'd rather have Reggie Sanders. Now that Juan has definitively outplayed Sanders in 2006, people still can't stop talking about being rid of him at the first opportunity. For Juan, it seems that every time he meets the bar the fans just set it higher.

Bernie Miklasz speculates that the rancor is due to Enc's laid back demeanor. Because he always looks relaxed and impassive, the fans don't think he's trying. You just never see a lot of passion. Maybe Bernie's right. But animosity toward Encarnacion requires an explanation, because it can't be explained by his actual play in 2006.

Don't get me wrong. Enc is not a superstar. But, damn it, he's a quality player.

In 2006, Enc hit .278, with a .317 OBP, and slugged .443. He had 155 total hits, 19 dingers, and 79 rbi. His homerun total is equal to Edmonds, and he topped Edmonds in RBI. Despite his relatively low OBP, he scored more runs than Eckstein (74 vs. 68). Among outfielders in the National League, Enc finished 8th in number of hits, and 17th in rbi. He played in 155 games, missing only 6 (the cards played only 161 in '06). This is no glass jawed player.

If you compare Enc to the Cardinals' most important NL rival, Encarnacion compares favorably with either of the Mets' left or right fielders, Chavez, Floyd, or Green.

Second, Encarnacion is grossly underrated in defense. Per this VEB entry , Enc was the most valuable glove on the team in '06, saving 9 runs above replacement. Query this: If Enc's defense truly is worth more than Molina's, then, logically, Molina's the problem the Cards should address first, not Enc.

Lastly, the beef against Encarnacion can't be due to Juan's contract. As per this VEB entry, the Card's netted $1.2 [million based upon] win shares [over the amount paid during] the first year of Juan's contract. The team got more than they paid for.

So, I'll stop pussyfootin' around and just throw down the gauntlet: Juan's a better option in the OF than J-Rod. (how's that for shaking a hornet's nest?)

This will likely to be an unpopular post. But I'm open to other folks' views as to what their beef with Encarnacion is, especially you, OBP obsessed sabrematricians of the world. If there's a case to be made, I don't see it.

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Errata

That's $1.2 millon net value above contract price, based on win shares, not a dollar twenty cents.

So says, The Dude

by Titus Pullo on Jan 15, 2007 4:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i agree

And I've said before, JEnc is going to break out this year. I really think he played most of last season hurt- he's like the anti-JD Drew in that sense. It took him a month or so to recover from missing spring training, but then he played GREAT in late june/july/august. unfortunately then he hurt his wrist and was awful in sept/oct. By oct he couldn't even throw the ball to the cutoff man, he was hurting so bad; no wonder he was terrible at the plate.

As far as perception goes, I think he messed up by not whooping albert's arse in spring training. No one is scared of him, he hasn't really done anything to make people love or hate him, so the only real emotion they have towards him is annoyance when he chases a bad pitch or loses a ball in the corner.

"...in winter, when there's no baseball... I stare out the window and wait for spring." -Rogers Hornsby

by SleepyCA on Jan 15, 2007 4:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

errata

late may/june/july, then fell off in aug/sep/oct.

"...in winter, when there's no baseball... I stare out the window and wait for spring." -Rogers Hornsby

by SleepyCA on Jan 15, 2007 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree

By the time you are a 31 year old baseball player, you are what you are, a breakout is highly unlikely. Last year Juan hit .278/.317/.443. His career year was the year before that, when he hit .287/.349/.447. MAYBE if we're lucky he hits that high again, but more likely we get a year closer to last year. I'm not a Juan hater, but you pretty much know what you're going to get from him: below-average OBP, a little bit of pop, and above average defense.

by mikedallas23 on Jan 15, 2007 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually he could breakout

Look at what jermaine dye did last year, and he is 33. Now I am not saying Enc will be close to being as good as Dye but it is possible he hits 290 with 25 hr. Pre '06 Dye and Enc's stats were pretty comprable so you never know

by redbirdnation on Jan 15, 2007 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mike, I agree that Juan is consistent

And I don't particularly expect him to "break out" this year. Even so, I still think he's a quality player, and that was my point.

In an ideal world, Juan would be our third most productive outfielder. So hopefully, Edmonds and Dunc will out-produce him next year. I think that, more than anything, will do a world of good for the fans' regard for him.

So says, The Dude

by Titus Pullo on Jan 15, 2007 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

my thoughts on juan

--Bernie Miklasz speculates that the rancor is due to Enc's laid back demeanor. Because he always looks relaxed and impassive, the fans don't think he's trying.--

i think its more because he swings and misses on breaking balls and seems to have a hard time getting to balls hit in the corner.

--His homerun total is equal to Edmonds, and he topped Edmonds in RBI.--

juan is a corner outfielder. you expect your corner outfielder to hit more than an injured centerfielder, but that is sort of irrelevant anyway. juan is either good or he isnt good. it doesnt matter what edmonds or eckstein or anyone else did. them not doing good in certain stats doesnt make juan a better player.

--Second, Encarnacion is grossly underrated in defense. --

thats a matter of opinion. some of the stats say he is good. some of the stats in fact say he stinks. my eyes also tell me he isnt that great.

--So, I'll stop pussyfootin' around and just throw down the gauntlet: Juan's a better option in the OF than J-Rod. --

i dont know about that. j.rod has .298/.378/.434 career line in 158 games (basically a seasons worth). i guess it is still a little uncertain as to what type of player he can be if given a full time job, but i think he is at least as good juan. a j.rod/juan platoon wouldnt be a bad idea.

juan isnt a godawful player, but i dont think we would miss him if he were gone. it has nothing to do with his attitude. he just didnt produce last year. he hasnt really produced much his entire career.

by dmb60614 on Jan 15, 2007 4:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

J-Rod's line...

of .298/.378/.434 is mostly as a platoon player. He may have about a season's worth of games, but that doesn't tell the whole story.

He's mostly a platoon guy -- Whether he can handle lefties or not, TLR doesn't let him. He has 40 career at-bats against lefties(although his numbers are good there, so no definite answer on whether he can hit lefties or not).
His 158 games is a little bogus. In 158 career games, he has 332 at bats. That's nowhere near enough for him to qualify for a batting title in a season. To give comparison, Juan had 557 at-bats in 2006.

If Juan had 200 less at-bats and the 300-some he got were in situations tailored to his abilities, I think we'd see a lot better stats from Juan.

I don't know that I'm willing to say Juan is better than Rodriguez if they were given the same playing time over their careers, but I am willing to say Juan is a better baseball player right now, and with J-Rod being 28, it's not exactly like he's the kind of player we should be developing for the future.

I'm not a big Juan fan either and if he were traded, I certainly wouldn't be upset, but let's get off his back, other than having an offensive walk rate, he really doesn't have any huge flaws in his game that you'd expect a player making about 4M to be without.

by mtalken on Jan 16, 2007 7:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that ignores all the time JRod was in the minors

He has a good history of taking walks and Juan does not.

I don't have or know where to get L/R splits from the minors but his walk rates are born out by his record in the minors for the most part.

by azruavatar on Jan 16, 2007 10:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll agree

to a point. He is perceived to be much worse than he is, but he's hardly a great player. He is what he is, about league average. He is better defensively than he is perceived and is much better defensively than JRod. That said, he is not poised for a break out year. People have been saying that this will be Juan's break out year for about 6 years now and the reason it hasn't happened is because he is an average player. We could do worse in RF but we could also do better. And, as for his contract, he made only $3.5 M last year and he gets more expensive -- I think $5 M this year and 6.5 M next year. He's getting to be a relatively expensive league average player. It wouldn't be that hard to find someone who will be league average for less $$.

by chuckb on Jan 15, 2007 4:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Juan is Frustrating...

not because of his lack of ability, but, from what I can tell, 2 main reasons:

1). He's wildly inconsistant within one season. This goes for both offense and deffense. He'll put up a spectacular OPS one month, then the next fall flat. One week on, one week off. Admiting that some of this is the nature of the beast that is proffesional baseball, but more of it appears to be Juan's attention and zeal towards the game fading in and out seemingly at random, without regard to relavence of the game either on the standings or on team morale. The same goes for defense. One day he'll make a spectacular diving catch, the next he'll lose a can-of-corn in the lights and walk to go get it, without regard to consequences.

2). He's hopelessly average from season to season. Juan doesn't excite me because he doesn't offer the expectation of anything new. We've seen what he brings to the table. Its amazingly predictable. He's probably never going to hit below .260 again, but he'll probably never get higher than .290. He's a fairly safe bet to hit 15 homeruns in regular playing time, but I never expect him to slug 25.

Overall, he's not bad, but he's simply nothing special. But its not just that. It's the inconsistantcy, which from what I can tell comes from a lack of commitment and carring. The cardinals got below-average ofense from catcher, second base, and centerfield, and left last year. I'm not mad at Molina, nor am I disapointed in Miles. David Eckstein produced at a league-average rate for shortstop, and yet I couldn't think of two players at more oposite ends of the spectrum (Eck and Enc). While his ability remains high, his effort, and the ensuing production vary wildly with in the season, but from year to year they remain the same. Its hard to expect anything different. Sorry if that went on too long.

Plus, he looks a little too much like snoop...

Tell me I'm wrong.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Jan 15, 2007 5:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

fwiw

I've seen them both in person (though not at the same time) and they look nothing alike. Those two pictures are a clever, funny joke, and I did laugh the first time I saw them, but they do Juan a disservice.

"...in winter, when there's no baseball... I stare out the window and wait for spring." -Rogers Hornsby

by SleepyCA on Jan 15, 2007 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

speak of the devil

http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070114&content_id=1779162& ;vkey=news_stl&fext=.jsp&c_id=stl

afaik this is the first time he has admitted to being injured, but it was pretty obvious. I wish he had said when exactly he hurt it, since that would help to figure out how much we can expect him to improve. Still, he slugged over .500 all 3 months this season in which he was healthy. He'll never be an all-star, but he has the potential to be a .300/.330/.500 guy- a steal for $5 or $6M/year.

And he hit .367/.385/.551 in June, when pujols was injured- if he hadn't had that great month, we probably wouldn't have made it to the playoffs. We at least owe him the benefit of the doubt.

"...in winter, when there's no baseball... I stare out the window and wait for spring." -Rogers Hornsby

by SleepyCA on Jan 15, 2007 5:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

He also said

he missed the parade because his son was ill. I'll take him at his word...

by cardsrul on Jan 15, 2007 6:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Peoplealways complain on how he plays defense....

They say he doesnt hustle enough. But Im 6'2" (Juan is 6'3") and I dont look like I hustle when Im running, I dont know what people expect....

My one irk about him is his strikeout and walk levels, but if thats the worst thing he does, hes fine in my book.

Bottom line is hes an average/above average outfielder, we could do a lot worse.

by gbaby on Jan 15, 2007 10:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Who cares if you LOOK like you hustle?

Can Aramis Ramirez reverse-moonwalk to first and still get a triple when he hits a ball to your corner?

by sdrone on Jan 16, 2007 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Juan is

an average outfielder. The problem is average won't cut it next year. JimmE will have to slow down. I don't want to see him crashing into walls anymore. JimmE must stay healthy. Duncan will be no help in the gap, and I see his offense dropping off. Chris might just have a bad sophmore year. The bench is still unclear, but Taguchi and either Wilson don't inspire confidence. Jrod will not get much of a chance if one of the Wilson's is signed. I am not sure Jrod is the answer anyway.

We will need outfield help next year. I have been worried about it all off season.

by nybirdfan on Jan 16, 2007 12:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Jose Crzuz Jr.

He would have been a perfect fit, a decent enough fielder to play center, kills lefties, unfortunately he signed, but we coulda had him for chicken scratch.

by gbaby on Jan 16, 2007 12:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

he's average

you hit it on the head--he's an average OF at a decent price. the question is, can everyone else around him make up for the fact that he's average? also, i could not put my finger on it, but i saw some stat that indicated he came up with a huge number of risp, which makes his mediocre (at best) rbi numbers look even worse.

by Phillycardfan on Jan 16, 2007 3:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

he batted

.310 with RISP, #2 on the team (behind pujols) and #22 in the NL among qualified batters. Jim Edmonds hit .239, Rolen hit .280, Duncan hit .183, eckstein .255...

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=batting&linesToDisplay=25&orderBy= baRisp&direction=DESC&qual_filter=ignore&season_filter%5B%5D=2006&league_filter%5B%5 D=2&team_filter%5B%5D=STL&pos_filter%5B%5D=All&Submit=Submit

"...in winter, when there's no baseball... I stare out the window and wait for spring." -Rogers Hornsby

by SleepyCA on Jan 16, 2007 6:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

here's the

source for the comment:

#2 on the team and #22 in the NL among qualified batters"

"...in winter, when there's no baseball... I stare out the window and wait for spring." -Rogers Hornsby

by SleepyCA on Jan 16, 2007 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

imo

juan is fine in my book. i think he puts up quality stats for the kind of money we are paying him. his defense is above-average and he's durable.

i'd take him over j.d. drew, 06 reggie sanders, retiring larry walker, and j-rod.

j-rod might have had 155 at bats but they were also at bats where the numbers and situations were in his favor. he wasn't in there everyday giving people a chance to find the holes in his swing. he's been protected from those kind of situations by tony.

he might not be the best RF in the game but he is far from the worst.

by FutureMan on Jan 16, 2007 1:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Regarding the fans' negative reaction to Juan

As someone pointed out before (don't remember who or when), fans may have expected too much of Juan because his really was the biggest signing of the offseason...and it seemed to me that Jocketty and Co. made it worse by talking him up a little too much...

"The thousand injuries of Fortunato I had borne as I best could, but when he ventured upon insult, I vowed revenge."

by iron duke75 on Jan 16, 2007 3:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

That's it exactly

Walker retired, Sanders and Grudzielanek were allowed to depart, and the team filled those offensive holes with...Juan Encarnacion and Junior Spivey (and eventually Belliard and Duncan).

He was touted by the organization as an "impact bat." He simply is not an impact bat. He's not a terrible player, either. But building him up so high, he could only fail to meet expectations. It wasn't fair to him, really.

As for many people's obsession/longing for more playing time for J-Rod, I liken that to football, where the most popular guy in town is always the backup quarterback. Sure, he looks great in preseason and occasional mop-up duty, but there's a reason why he's the backup.

by blove121 on Jan 16, 2007 10:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My animosity toward Juan,

or to be more accurate, my animosity toward Jock for signing Enc, really comes down to his at-bats, which are excruciating to watch. He often looks like he's got no plan at all when standing up there.

His laid-back demeanor and apparent slowness in the outfield remind me of George Hendrick more than anything else, and I know that players with certain body types or body language can appear to the casual fan to be "lazy" even when they are in fact hustling, so I try not to judge his defense too harshly.

But those ABs, man, they make me cringe.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jan 16, 2007 10:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

His VORP

of ~9, that's right, 9 runs above replacement. That's good for 27th among ML right-fielders, 12th in the NL. If he was a CF'er in the NL that would be good for 15th, if he was a LF'er that would have been 17th.

Corner outfield glove guys are a dime a dozen, even giving him a whole win with the glove, it doesn't make it that much better.

VORP is a counting stat, and JRod was worth exactly 8.8 runs as well. In 212 plate appearances.

by plh903 on Jan 17, 2007 5:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Dime's Not Worth What It Once Was

A dime a dozen, eh? And yet, this will mark the second year in a row where the Cards haven't been able to find an upgrade over Enc.

So says, The Dude

by Titus Pullo on Jan 17, 2007 10:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

PECOTA

thinks that there are about four already on the team, and I'm not including Edmonds or Duncan.

I said corner outfield glove guys are a dime a dozen anyway. I must have missed when they were looking for an upgrade. Point is, there should be players that give you his level of production (+9 VORP, right-field, $15 million bucks!) for free. Pay for difference makers, Juan isn't one. We can get a .750 OPS in left-field for free.

What's the point? He's a proven mediocrity? Great, let's give him some money and block some kids who play for free and have upside.

by plh903 on Jan 17, 2007 10:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A little misleading...

when you state that he had as many HR's as Jim, and more runs than Eckstein. He also had 207 more AB's than Jimmy, and 57 more AB's than Eckstein because of injuries.

I'm still a little surprised that he scored more runs than Eck did considering his OBP was .033 lower, and he was batting lower in the order.

Count me with the group that considers him nothing spectacular, but worth $5 mil if for no other reason than you can count on him for 500 AB's.

by cardzfanbub on Jan 17, 2007 1:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I AM NOT A JUAN FAN BUT

he is a average player.i think he will have a better year this season. i believe if the cards could have they would have tried to upgrade. i still hope they bring wilson back ithink he can help. as far as juan missing the parade i could really careless. if his kid was sick then his kid was sick. i think he could hit 25 hr. one thing he could do is to cut down on the strikeouts . if he does that his average will go up because he might out a hit or get a blop hit. the cardinals need a solid year from him .if he has a down year he will not be in st.louis in 08

SWH

by BRINGBACKWILSON on Jan 20, 2007 5:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs