roster matrix update

by lboros on Jan 12, 2007 8:23 AM EST in News Comment 103 comments

a number of people requested an updated roster matrix to reflect the mulder and franklin signings. it has been quite a while (more than a month) since i posted one; i am pretty sure this is completely current, but if i left anybody out you'll let me know. one explanatory note: it was pointed out a while back that i have not been consistent in accounting for deferred money. i've been listing edmonds' salary as $8m, ie without the $3m he's deferring (his official salary is $11m), but i have been listing rolen and pujols at their full official salaries ($12m and $15m, respectively) even though both of them, like edmonds, are deferring significant sums --- $2m by rolen, and $3m by albert. i've adjusted the matrix to include all the deferred money in the current-year salaries, because that seems to be standard practice; all the sources i've checked list salaries that way. at usa today, for example, rolen's salary for 2006 is listed as $12.4m, even though he deferred $2m last year. it's listed the same way at baseball-reference (which, for all i know, uses usa today as its source for salary info). i checked 3 or 4 other big-league contracts with significant deferred amounts in them, and the deferred money is always counted as part of the current-year salary; so that's how we'll do it here from now on.

2007 ROSTER MATRIX
MULDER/FRANKLIN UPDATE

STARTING 8	BENCH	ROTATION	PEN
molina c $600K	taguchi of $1m	carpenter rhp $8.5m	is'hausen rhp $9m
pujols 1b $15m	spiezio ut $2.3m	reyes rhp $380K	looper rhp $4.5m
kennedy 2b $2.5m	bennett c $900K	k wells rhp $4m	kinney rhp $380K
rolen 3b $12m	miles if $1m	wainwright rhp $380K	johnson lhp $380K
eckstein ss $4.5m	j-rod of $400K	mulder lhp $5m	flores lhp $800K
duncan lf $380K	schumaker of memphis	franklin rhp $1m	hancock rhp $380k
edmonds cf $11m	marrero ut memphis	narveson lhp memphis	thompson rhp $400k
en'cion rf $5m	e gonzalez if memphis	kiesler lhp memphis	springer rhp $1.8m
--- ---	ludwick of memphis	hawksworth rhp sp'field	rincon lhp $1.5m
TOTAL $51.0m	TOTAL $5.6m	TOTAL $19.3m	TOTAL $19.1m
OVERALL	PAYROLL:	$95.0

so there's $5m left in the budget, by my lights. note that taguchi is not officially under contract; i've assumed he'll be signed, based on statements by la russa and jocketty. but lately the team has been talking about re-signing preston wilson (more on that in a moment), which might drive the bottom line as high as $97m, very close to the now-legendary $100m cutoff. of course, there is still every chance that money (most likely looper's) will be dumped along the way; absent that, or an increase in the overall payroll, there doesn't appear to be any money left for another big acquisition.

where'd the money go? last time i ran this exercise, the bottom line stood at $82.5m. since then, the cards have added mulder ($5m), springer ($1.8m), and franklin ($1m), while raising miles to $1m (a $600K increase). so there's $8.8m in new spending. then there's the accounting change, ie the $3m deferred from edmonds' contract; with that added in, the increase is at $11.8. and the last $200K or so of the increase comes from the bump in the league minimum --- i had it at $350K in the last matrix, but somebody pointed out that the new CBA calls for a $380K minimum this year.

now, if we decide not to count the three deferrals (which total $8m), then the cardinals are only commited for $86.6m in current-year payroll --- and that makes the acquisition of another impact player well within reach. this, frankly, seems like the proper way to count it, but apparently it isn't done that way. there also are incentives, of course; mulder can earn a big chunk, and albert is seemingly good for $200,000 in bonuses every year. looper, franklin, and miles also have sizeable incentive clauses. i'm not counting those, but maybe the club is. i don't know.

in any case, that's the current state of the payroll.

walter jocketty made an appearance on bernie's radio show yesterday, the gist of which is summarized here. the interview in bullet-point form:

no free-agent starters under consideration except weaver, and him only at the right price (ie, for cheap)
izzy expected back by opening day, freeing wainwright to start
jock has carp, reyes, wells, wainwright penciled in as the top 4 starters to open the season, with the 5th coming from among franklin, looper, thompson, and narveson
they're considering "various options" for a rh-hitting outfielder, including preston wilson; waiting out the market, hoping to get a cheaper deal. taguchi is expected back, and schumaker might see some spot duty in cf.
ankiel is ticketed for triple A

finally, there was this information on mulder:

On Mulder's health: Dr. Paletta participated in the surgery and has close-up knowledge of what they did, and what was wrong. Paletta checked on Mulder recently and is confident that the rehab is progressing well. The Cardinals think Mulder can be on a mound in June, and do his minor-league tour, which will be a spring training -- and then be with the Cardinals as of July 1.

that timetable really concerns me, especially in light of yesterday's post; but hey, they're the experts. i hope it works out.

finally, here's an update on troy cate's exploits in the mexican pacific league: after going 3-1, 1.21 in 6 regular-season games (4 starts) for mazatlan, he drew the game 1 assignment in the opening round of the playoffs and turned in a scoreless 7-inning, 4-hit start (0 walks, 4 strikeouts) vs navojoa. his teammate (and fellow stl farmhand) edgar v gonzalez had a hot series with the bat --- 8 for 18 (.444) with a double, a homer, and 3 walks --- as mazatlan breezed to a 4 games to 1 win. the second round gets underway tonight: mazatlan vs culiacan. i haven't been able to locate the probables online, but i'm guessing cate has the game 1 assignment again. why the hell wouldn't he?

follow the action at the league website; click on "boxscores" to get the results.

0 recs | Comment 103 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Man

Carp is a bargain.

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Jan 12, 2007 8:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

That has to be a misprint

Izzy makes more than Carp. Now that can't be right. At least he is one player that won't be looking for an extension during the season...right?

Pujols just did WHAT...

by gforce on Jan 12, 2007 9:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cate a possible fifth starter?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the team invited Cate to camp, right? I mean why else would he be starting this winter after a whole year in the 'pen?

Why not add one more to the race? The Mexican League can't be all bad, right? I'm looking for positives here. With that in mind, I also read that Ankiel has been down at the spring training complex everyday working out. I'm sure the team doesn't think he is ready, but what happens if he has a lights-out spring?

Wow, can we fast-forward to March already...

Pujols just did WHAT...

by gforce on Jan 12, 2007 8:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

starting

i hope he gets a look as a starter but it is not unusual for relievers to be starters in winter leagues.

by dmb60614 on Jan 12, 2007 2:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hey Lboros

Correction Flores is Lhp

by Calhoun on Jan 12, 2007 9:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ok, I draw the line....

at watching Mexican League games online. That's when I know I have an addiction. I mean, I'll drive to small town in Wisconsin to watch the Single A team, but come on, watching a mexican league game?

Who I am kidding, I'm just mad I'm on a plane tonight and won't be able to follow it.

by Brock20 on Jan 12, 2007 9:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Where can you watch mex league games?

by Zubin on Jan 12, 2007 10:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Also...

There are 9 RP on there -- all of whom are pretty much MLB worthy. Since lord only know what we'll get with Izzy and Rincon, it may only be 7, but if they go into/out of camp healthy, that's a bit of a surplus in the 'pen (with an additionaal man in Franklin whenever Mulder comes back).

Who has options left to get sent down, or could there be a trade a brewing?

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Jan 12, 2007 9:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

options, etc

It appears that, of our 'pen returnees, only Kinney, Flores and Tyler J have an option year (or more) remaining. Cate has his options fully intact, while Keisler has none.

It also appears Narveson is out of options. That will be something to watch in spring training. (Aside: how many guys has this organization ever traded twice?)

Options info courtesy of botb's guy-in-the-know, sf:

http://www.birdsonthebat.org/showthread.php?t=42692

href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/2006.shtml> youneverknow"

by meat on Jan 12, 2007 11:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Narveson

When Tony says Narveson isn't in the picture, but Walt says he is...I would guess that Walt may be trying to drum up interest in him.

by Fred McTaggart on Jan 12, 2007 9:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lo Siento

pero no halbo espanol muy bueno. Como se dice "Is there a way to see it in english? Or will I have to just stumble around till I find what I'm looking for?"

Jimscobert Purolmonds - MV3

by OKCardsfan on Jan 12, 2007 9:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

14 pitchers

not counting Mulder. Will be interesting to see who they dump off. I'm all for unloading Looper if (and only if) they can make some productive use of the payroll space. I wonder if there are any suckers out there interested in Rincon.

!Vayan Venados! (That's the Mazatlan team name -- anyone have a clue what it means?)

by DCGreg on Jan 12, 2007 9:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I babel fished it...

and it came out to "Deer Go" something tells me that isn't right.

Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Jan 12, 2007 9:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks to my Italian girlfriend...

I'm forever using a translator. Sure enough, the one at dictionary.com has is come up 'deer go' as well. So maybe it is supposed to come out GO DEER!! Um...or not.

Pujols just did WHAT...

by gforce on Jan 12, 2007 10:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it's the mazatlan deer (or stags)

i'm assuming it's not the mazatlan venison... seems a little defeatist.

Rabid Redbird

by gthedamned on Jan 12, 2007 10:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Venados

Sorry to mislead (especially on such an important issue). The "Vayan" part was mine. "Venados" is the team name. Go Deer!

by DCGreg on Jan 12, 2007 11:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Go Deer (Or Stags)

I believe vayan is the plural imperative for the verb "ir", to go. Vamos is the 1st person plural (we go, or let's go)for example. Vayan, which is actually the 3rd person plural subjunctive, is also used for commands. So, "Deer go" would be venados van, I think. Sorry to further get off topic, but Spanish is possibly the only subject remotely related to baseball that I know more about than the average person on this forum.

by mattybobo on Jan 12, 2007 12:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was

trying to say "Go Deer," so I was actually intending to use the third-person plural imperative. I think I got that right, didn't I?

(And, for the nine out of ten of you who think this discussion needs to be on some Berlitz blog, your indulgence is appreciated.)

by DCGreg on Jan 12, 2007 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Is Cate on the juice again?

I hope not, although if it lets him pitch well...

and Edgar Gonzales is the older brother of Pads 1b Adrian Gonzales.

Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Jan 12, 2007 9:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wilson

----------
but lately the team has been talking about re-signing preston wilson (more on that in a moment),
----------

Sorry Walt, but you've got the wrong Wilson. Looking at the ZIPS, which guy would you rather have?

Preston Wilson: .249 .308 .396
Craig Wilson: .255 .344 .478

Seems to me that Taguchi fills our quota for 700 OPS corner outfielders.

by mikedallas23 on Jan 12, 2007 10:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I mean, cone on

Do we really need to sign Preston Wilson? How will that really help us?

by sdrone on Jan 12, 2007 10:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just re-watched the Billy Bob WS DVD again...

and P-Dub was friekin everywhere! He was always talking or being interviewed for the DVD. It made him seem like he was the Larry Walker or Reggie Sanders memorial veteran clubhouse presence that the whole team fed off of, joked with, or de-stressed by. It just seemed strange to me that for such a minor player in the course of the season, he got so much airtime on the DVD. Maybe he was really great for the clubhouse and WalTLR wants him back?

by Big Rev on Jan 12, 2007 12:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I got the same

impression. I guess he's a talkative guy and that's what they were looking for. And, FWIW, he seems like a very nice guy too.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jan 12, 2007 12:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wilson or Wilson

The only problem with Craig Wilson is that he isn't that good of a fielder. We already have a spotty defender in "Skates" Duncan. Preston at least is a competent fielder when healthy. Lots of folks here seem to favor a youth movement on the pitching staff; maybe Schumaker would work as the 5th OF?

Cards fan in Denver

by TurdFerguson on Jan 12, 2007 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Gooch

Ahh, the Gooch is on the roster 'cause he can play center well and in a pinch he can even play 2nd base. Besides that TLR likes him-- I am guessing 'cause he isn't a prima donna.

by Zubin on Jan 12, 2007 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

IF anybody can find Mexican League T-Shirts...

online can you post a link. I was looking for some before Christmas.

by Brock20 on Jan 12, 2007 10:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

accounting

for official league accounting purposes (revenue sharing, luxury tax, etc.) the deferred money is counted in 2006. i have read that for internal purposes, the cards (and most teams) calculate payroll on the basis of cash spent in that particular year (ie exclude deferred money). unfortunately, i cant find the link where that was discussed. however, when walt discusses where the current payroll is it usually resembles a payroll figure that does not count deferred money. of course, walt will occasionally throw in some percentage of incentives. unfortunately we dont always know the details of the incentives.

by dmb60614 on Jan 12, 2007 10:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Why don't more teams report on a flow basis?

It seems like that could help explain why teams do or don't make midseasone moves (money available).

by bdief on Jan 12, 2007 10:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

cash flow

i would guess that all of the teams calculate actual cash spent (exclude deferrals) for internal purposes. you always read about teams asking a player to defer so they can make some more moves.

for league purposes the deferrals are included just as a way of standardization/simplification.

by dmb60614 on Jan 12, 2007 10:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That Mulder timetable strikes me as

problematic for the reason LBoros pointed out. Mulder is the 'calvary' come trade deadline time and I'm not sure the team will really have the incentive to go and get another starter if they need one. If Mulder has a few bad starts and they fool themselves into thinking that 'He's just not back into the rhythm of the game' then that could preclude us from making a smart pickup at the deadline.

Paletta's comments don't make me feel better after his inability to diagnose the tear last year. Is it common for doctors to be unable to identify rotator cuff tears? It seems like Mulder's performance was telling us something was wrong. Wouldn't a tear show up on an MRI?

Good to see Cate doing well. Anyone know about what difficulty level we are taking about with the Mexican league? I would guess it's a AA difficulty level comparably but I don't really know. Regardless, he's putting up some gaudy numbers.

by azruavatar on Jan 12, 2007 11:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Rotator cuff

Tears in the shoulder can be difficult to determine without an athrogram, which is basically when dye is injected into the shoulder and an MRI can then see what the damage is. A simple MRI won't do it. And even if this is done it is sometimes hard to view all the parts of the shoulder. Alternatively, the doctors might have felt that the best option was not to repair the tear and see if cleaning it up (which is essentially removing fraying from the tear) will the reduce the impingement in the shoulder. This is what they tried to do with Mulder I think. The only reason I know this stuff is because I had two labral tears and this required surgery and consequentally I learned all I could about the procedures involved.

by eglasier on Jan 12, 2007 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

rotator cuff vs labrum

i've heard rotator cuff injuries should for the most part be able to be identified with an MRI. labrum injuries are very difficult to see. generally you dont know the full damage to the labrum until you cut them open and stick in an arthroscope.

by dmb60614 on Jan 12, 2007 12:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you're

probably right, but only if an arthrogram was done in conjunction, which I would guess that they would do

by eglasier on Jan 12, 2007 12:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think the number is

actually < 75% of rotator cuff tears are found on a plain MRI film. An arthrogram or scoping the joint is usually required. Many times, they find "abnormal signals" on the MRI, but they aren't sure the extent of the damage until the surgeon goes into the joint to scope it out. Labrum tears are hard to see on MRI, but Rotator cuff tears and their extent are also hard to fully diagnose until you can see inside the joint.

by silent_bob on Jan 12, 2007 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mulder's injury

Surgery is also almost always left as a last resort with rotator cuff injuries. Even partial tears are often times not repared unless absolutely necessary.

What I don't agree with is that many people have complained that marching Mulder out in September caused further injury. I don't think that was the case. No Cardinal official or doctor ever hinted at that that I can remember. The damage was already done and the only thing that his premature return affected was the lost time in the event that he had the surgery immediately instead of waiting until the offseason.

by eglasier on Jan 12, 2007 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

one other thing

". . . . the only thing that his premature return affected was the lost time in the event that he had the surgery immediately instead of waiting until the offseason."

that, and the two games the cardinals got blown out of because their starting pitcher was physically unsound. those two thrown-away games loomed rather large in the last week of the year.

by lboros on Jan 12, 2007 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and even this season

as his recovery is delayed further by the decision to put off his surgery and keep running him out there.

The Cardinal Curmudgeon

by lawman3842 on Jan 12, 2007 5:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Paletta's A Problem

I heard about Mulder's rotator cuff weeks before the Cards acknowledged it. As soon as the news came out that he couldn't raise his arm over his head, medical professionals I know immediately said it was his rotator cuff. And yet, after those reports, the Cards rolled Mulder out for another start and sent Reyes back down, as I recall.

Generally, I get the impression that Paletta tells management what they want to hear. He did a lousy job with Rolen's shoulder injury too, I might add. It shouldn't take a player screaming as he swings to make the diagnosis that something isn't right.

So says, The Dude

by Titus Pullo on Jan 12, 2007 4:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Didn't Mulder insist he had no pain?

Wasn't the problem diagnosed when they found he couldn't raise his left arm above his head.

Pain and immobility are only clues. An MRI was needed for a diagnosis, and MRIs are pretty reliable.

by Fred McTaggart on Jan 12, 2007 9:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I thought...

the Edmonds contract had a base salary of $8million each of the two years with a $3million signing bonus, which was deferred.

Aren't signing bonuses divided by the years of the contract and parceled out to each year? That would make his salaries in each year $9.5million.

What's needed here is an official VivaElBirdos Statement of Accounting Practices, to be used in all future discussions of salaries and budgets. Somebody could have fun putting that together... I would volunteer but I'm, uh, busy...

Acquire Jon Lieber!

by guayzimi on Jan 12, 2007 11:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

All ZiPS are complete

ending with the Washington Nationals.

Here's Ryan Church:
.271 .356 .468

They hate him. He plays centerfield. We have a bag of balls. Let's make a trade.

by RedbirdRay on Jan 12, 2007 11:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Amen to that.

But TLR is just as much an old-school hardass as Frank Robinson, so he'd probably dislike Church just as much, and for the same reasons (whatever the hell they are).

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jan 12, 2007 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

bowden

i like church as well. that might make too many lefties?---edmonds, duncan, j.rod and church. it seems like walt wants another righty and if taguchi is sticking around i guess that means j.rod is gone?

but more to the point--walt and bowden do not get along at all. pretty much anyone and bowden do not get along well. he is hard to deal with. the nats may have no use for church but they will likely ask for the moon if someone else wants him.

by dmb60614 on Jan 12, 2007 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You're both right

Bowden has a history of over-valuing his own players (hence ending up with nada for Soriano last season) and is in love with his own ability to spot talent--even though he is the same guy who gave away Endy Chavez, Tomo Ohka and some others for essentially nothing.

The Nationals don't like Church because his defense is not so good, and he doesn't "work hard enough." So he would likely be as popular with TLR as, say, J-Rod.

by blove121 on Jan 12, 2007 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bowden is no great shakes as

a GM, but I'm not sure giving away Endy Chavez should be seen as a BAD thing. Yeah, yeah, he made a great catch in the NLCS, but he's essentially Kerry Robinson or Timo Perez.

Early last year Church ran into an OF wall to catch a ball, broke a rib or two and generally banged himself up pretty good. It took him pretty long to come back, and, justifiably or not, he got stuck with a label of "lacking toughness" (read "wimp"). Thomas Boswell of the WaPo wrote a really vicious article, practically calling Church a wuss. I always suspected he was being ventriliquized by F-Rob or someone in the Nationals' front office.

I'd take Church in a heartbeat.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jan 12, 2007 4:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Trade

Has anyone else seen the rumor that the Mets and A's are talking about sending Danny Haren to the Mets for Lastings Mileage, Aaron Heilman and with a minor league player? If he goes to the Mets, he could do even more damage to us then he already has in the botched trade. At least with the A's Haren can't hurt us much more then he already has.

Play hard, play to win, but make it fun!

by Edmonds is baseball on Jan 12, 2007 12:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The trade doesn't make sense...

I understand being high on Milledge, but I don't see how you get rid of Haren, your potential #1 starter, at this point in his career and with what he makes salary-wise.

by silent_bob on Jan 12, 2007 12:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This has been rumored off and on

for several months now.

by sdrone on Jan 12, 2007 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

jerome williams to the nationals

http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20070112&am p;content_id=1777897&vkey=pr_was&fext=.jsp&c_id=was

by lboros on Jan 12, 2007 1:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Another one bites the dust...

I'll be curious to see how Williams does this year. Heck, any of the so-called 'second' tier pitchers we passed on this winter. I'm not saying we didn't make the right choice in Mulder (I'm praying from my trailer in the desert), but there have been some...let's call them Duncan-specials...

We'll see, it isn't even February yet, and I am already doubting the World Series champs...okay, I guess I should lay off the coffee.

Pujols just did WHAT...

by gforce on Jan 12, 2007 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think

whoever wins that fifth spot in the rotation will be the Duncan special, be it Looper or Franklin. I don't think he needs more than one project.

by Jonathan23 on Jan 12, 2007 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Duncan

Beyond the Box Score has some interesting analysis on who the best #2 hitters in baseball were last year.

Duncan does very well by almost all of the measures. It will be very interesting to see how he turns out this year. Anyone have thoughts on whether he will remain the 2 hitter? Is this really the ideal lineup? TLR was vocal last year about liking "damage" from that spot and Dunc seems to be able to provide it.

by OCCardsFan on Jan 12, 2007 1:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That's an interesting analysis,

I knew Dunc did a good job in the 2 hole last year, but by all those measures he was actually among the elite! Who knew?

It's hard to know who the "real" Chris Duncan will turn out to be. I hope his humiliation in the outfield in Game 5 will fuel his desire to work his arse off in 07.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jan 12, 2007 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

another option

Or, after reading that the Pirates/Braves trade talk is cooling off, maybe we can trade Duncan to the Pirates for one of their young starters (preferably a lefty). Then all this Braden Looper-as-a-starter nonsense could be put to rest.

Cards fan in Denver

by TurdFerguson on Jan 12, 2007 6:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Trade Duncan?

With Carp, Reyes, Wainwright, Wells, Franklin/Thompson/Looper, and later Mulder...PLUS a bullpen chock-full-o'-pitchers, AND a few potentially up-and-coming minor-leaguers (Narveson, Hawksworth, Kiesler and Cate), I'd argue that we need Duncan much more than another potential starter.

Aside from Duncan and the optimistic "resurgence" for Jimmy, have you SEEN the collective OPSes for our outfield? Ugh. We better get another significant offensive force in the OF long before talking seriously about trading the pitching coach's son and his impact bat...

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Jan 12, 2007 7:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

interesting article

I love seeing Duncan in the same sentence as "Jeter" and "utley"...

Anyone know how Secondary average (SecA) is calculated, or where to find it?

"...in winter, when there's no baseball... I stare out the window and wait for spring." -Rogers Hornsby

by SleepyCA on Jan 12, 2007 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

nevermind

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secondary_average

for our position players last year:

A Pujols    0.521
C Duncan    0.403
J Edmonds    0.377
S Spiezio    0.362
S Rolen    0.335
J Encarnacion    0.220
A Kennedy    0.210
A Miles    0.176
Y Molina    0.165
D Eckstein    0.116 (yikes!)

"...in winter, when there's no baseball... I stare out the window and wait for spring." -Rogers Hornsby

by SleepyCA on Jan 12, 2007 3:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Eckstein & Secondary Average

While I think everyone here appreciates his scrappiness and his backstory, and he is well-liked by La Russa, David is completely miscast as a leadoff hitter. He doesn't walk a lot (the HBP totals help, but not enough), he doesn't run especially well, and he has very little power. he would be best utilized as a #7- or #8-hitter.

That said, he's the best option we have currently. The better trade options out there are asking for too much or are incompatable with our roster. Our best hope right now is to find some DFA special, a Nook Logan-type who gets red hot for three weeks, supplants Brekky in the starting lineup, and takes over the leadoff role.

Of course, the problem with that is the back half of the order becomes brutal: Kennedy, Molina, Eckstein, pitcher. Little or no power, limited walks, not much of anything. I like the players individually, but put together they look awful.

Oh, the burden of stupid people.

by Solanus on Jan 12, 2007 4:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That is a strange formula

a walk is worth significantly more than a double by that formula (dividing by AB and not PA is just odd).

And, using my favorite example of a strange season, 2001 Mark McGwire had a secondary average of .491, only slightly worse than Albert.

by Valatan on Jan 12, 2007 5:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

edgar v gonzalez

has the dubious honor of being the worst defensive 2B in the minor leagues, according to jeff sackman...

"...in winter, when there's no baseball... I stare out the window and wait for spring." -Rogers Hornsby

by SleepyCA on Jan 12, 2007 1:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i knew there

had to be a reason he was stuck in the minors so long despite being such a good hitter!

Future Redbirds

by erik on Jan 12, 2007 5:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the transaction oracle

is ok with the franklin signing:

"Unlike the Reds and Phillies, the Cardinals actually have a park/team configuration that makes Franklin useful. Well, hopefully - you could say the same about the Mariners the last 2 years Franklin pitched for them and he was awful. Franklin's role will be to get the Cardinals to a healthy Mulder without being too terrible so that they don't have to make half the bullpen into starters."

ZIPS projects franklin to a 4.90 era in busch stadium.

by lboros on Jan 12, 2007 3:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Flores

Signed to a two year deal thereby avoiding arb. Wow that bullpen looks pretty full. I am more and more convinced that Walt will spin some of these guys off in Spring Training even if it is just for parts or prospects.

by OCCardsFan on Jan 12, 2007 3:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ughhh!

RotoWorld is reporting that it's $1.8M for two
years on Flores! Time to upgrade the matrix
again. And why avoid arbi' on Flores? Blech.

by lostraven on Jan 12, 2007 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I saw that

I immediately had to wonder who Flores hired as an agent. Nice deal for Randy, but it doesn't seem very Jockety-esque.

by punditmoi on Jan 12, 2007 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Correction to Roster Matrix

Ricardo Rincon signed is due 1.7MM this year. He was only paid 1.2MM last year and he signed a 2 year 2.9MM deal.

I know it is only 200k but it does make a small difference.

I hope Rincon can get in there and get some lefties out. Or at least pitch well in Spring Training so we can trade him and Looper away and get salary relief to make a big splash at the trade deadline like we did last year with Weaver.

2006 Cardinals- An underdog story

by Born in 82 on Jan 12, 2007 4:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

did anyone see

the jerry crasnick chat today at espn?

only one cards question, asking what chance they had to defend the title

crasnick said it would have to be dave duncans best year ever for them to have a legitimate shot

Pujols is the greatest Cardinal in my lifetime.

by bigcardsfan5 on Jan 12, 2007 4:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

CHRIS DUNCAN IS A N00B

HELLO, MY NAME IS TOLAXOR!!!

I'D LIKE TO POINT OUT THAT CHRIS DUNCAN HAS A GRAND TOTAL OF 290 MAJOR LEAGUE AT BATS!!!

THIS FRIGHTENS ME!!!

by TOLAXOR on Jan 12, 2007 4:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeesh...

did BRINGBACKWILSON get banned or something?

Acquire Jon Lieber!

by guayzimi on Jan 12, 2007 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I personally think its awsome

HELLO MY NAME IS BORN IN 82

I THINK THAT ITS AWESOME WHEN YOU CAN GET A .800+
OPS GUY FOR 380K!

THAT MAKES ME HAPPY... I'M GOING TO HAWAII YEEEAAA!

2006 Cardinals- An underdog story

by Born in 82 on Jan 12, 2007 5:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Flores?

That doesn't make much sense to me. Am I missing something?

by Jhusk on Jan 12, 2007 5:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Bernie update

He interviewed LaRussa on his radio show. From his forum ...

Here's the bullet-point rundown of what TLR said:

Wants Weaver ... has told Weaver again that STL is where he should be... tony thinks there's a shot to get him. (as an aside, I hear the Cardinals are interested in offering Weaver a 2-year deal)....
He doesnt consider Narveson a candidate for relief; he's a starter and will be in the mix in the spring.
Ricardo Rincon: Tony said its his understanding that Rincon will be in camp and ready to compete.
Happy with the way rotation has shaped up -- anxious to see Franklin.
Wants another OF, said it doesnt matter if the guy bats L or R ... thinks there will be an opportunity for someone who comes here because of the Edmonds and Encarnacion surgeries...
He does think however that Edmonds will be ready by Opening Day. "Reasonably confident."
Not surprised by McGwire vote... was glad that Tony Gwynn stepped up to support McGwire... says he (La Russa) is a staunch defender of MM because he saw up close how hard McGwire worked to do what he did....he (La Russa) thinks the voters were determined to make a statement about McGwire and the era.

Sorry, I gotta get back to the show....

--B

by DCGreg on Jan 12, 2007 5:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Here's the interesting question

if they resign Weaver, who are Franklin and Narveson "fighting for a spot" with? Carp, Weaver, Wells, Wainwright, and Reyes would be the obvious front-runners for the rotation. With Izzy coming back, it seems unlikely that Wagonmaker is going back to the pen.

I'm not happy to make this prediction, but given what we've heard over the past year or so, my guess is resigning Weaver would mean that Reyes would be put on the block.

by tdawg on Jan 12, 2007 5:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i have the same thought

if they do get weaver, somebody will have to go . . . . it they can get a good return for anthony and still fill out the rotation without breaking the bank, maybe it's best for all concerned.

by lboros on Jan 12, 2007 5:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Given Wainwright's prominence in the postseason,

I betchya that he'd be a really attractive chip for some other team. Enough to get an impact bat for the OF?

by Valatan on Jan 12, 2007 5:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, but TLR and Duncan seem to like AW

and they don't seem to care for Reyes, for whatever reason

by tdawg on Jan 12, 2007 5:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

trading Reyes because Weaver blocks him

would be worse, in my opinion, than any decision they would be likely to make to bump someone from the rotation when Mulder comes back

by tdawg on Jan 12, 2007 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

obviously

it depends on what the team could get for Reyes -- wouldn't an emerging outfield talent be nice? -- but it would certainly seem like a step down for the rotation.

Gotta figure the odds of it happening are slim. Weaver is a Boras client, after all. Are there credible (or not-so credible) reports out there that Weaver has been offered a three-year deal somewhere?

by DCGreg on Jan 12, 2007 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

it'd be a decent net upgrade if they could get Carl Crawford or someone like that. It doesn't make much sense if they're just going to dump one of Reyes/Wainwright

by Valatan on Jan 12, 2007 6:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ugh.

I didn't want to see Weaver signed before the Mulder/Franklin deals. I sure as hell wouldn't like to see him bump one of the youngsters.

by liam on Jan 12, 2007 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hate to see Reyes go

but it seems pretty inevitable he'll be moved should they get weaver. imo it's a mistake, Reyes is going to be a much better pitcher but that foolish prejudice against cocky kids. what do you think we could get for reyes? I'd imagine the return could be pretty good this winter.

Future Redbirds

by erik on Jan 12, 2007 5:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i'd hate for it to come to that too

because young pitchers with that type of potential are not a dime a dozen. but if the organization isn't commited to him --- and that's what a weaver signing might imply --- then maybe it's best to convert him into some other type of talent now, before his value diminishes. get equivalent talent back, just in a different form that's a more comfortable fit.

if weaver did come aboard, a change of scenery might be beneficial to reyes as well.

by lboros on Jan 12, 2007 6:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Blach

Trading Reyes is a bad idea unless we get a young impact OF bat...Carlos Quentin maybe?

I'd be a big, big, big detractor of Weaver over Reyes for the rotation, (Reyes is better, younger, cheaper) but I wouldn't be completely opposed to Weaver + Quentin for Reyes.

Pujols > God

by joker24 on Jan 12, 2007 7:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I've been waiting...

for the D-backs to convert some of those young position players into arms... You rarely see a Reyes for Quentin type trade though.

Acquire any Established Major League Starter!

by guayzimi on Jan 12, 2007 10:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I, too, would hate to see him go

even for an impact OF unless we got a good pitching prospect in return. Ken Williams traded Brandon McCarthy for John Danks and a MR prospect. If we're going to trade Reyes, this is the deal I'd like. Young pitching is the most valuable commodity in baseball and we shouldn't trade it w/o getting it back. We just don't have enough (of course, no one does!).

by chuckb on Jan 12, 2007 10:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

eh...

... first of all, i really doubt they'll sign Weaver.

but if they do, i think Wainwright would go back into the pen. the plan early this offseason was to keep him in the pen if we could sign enough other guys. that would be my guess. i would also expect Looper and/or Rincon to be traded.

but who freaking knows, with this off-season.

by kindred on Jan 12, 2007 6:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

From everything...

TLR has said, Narveson seems to have no chance at making the roster. If Weaver is signed then there are three guys that have to start: Reyes, Carp, and Weaver. Wells, Mulder, Wainwright, and Franklin then attempt to plug the final two spots.

With Weaver on board, they'd have 6.5 starters, but Wainwright can easily move to the pen, Franklin can be cut, Mulder sent to rehab... LaRussa needs to plan for the worst, not the best, and the worst is that of the Reyes, AW, Wells, Franklin, Mulder group, perhaps 3 of those guys will be total washouts.

Yes you can fish around on the waiver wire in July, but it's nothing short of administrative malfeasance to go into the season with that being Plan A.

Acquire any Established Major League Starter!

by guayzimi on Jan 12, 2007 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would think that a signing of Weaver to a 2-year

deal could make the rotation look something like:

Carpenter
Reyes
Weaver
Wells
Wainwright

and when Mulder returns

Carpenter
Reyes
Weaver
Mulder
Wainwright

If that were the case, I don't know that I would mind the signing. It blocks a 2008 signing of a Buerhle or other big name pitcher on the block, but with last season as a precursor, it never hurts to have extra 'rotation' able arms in the organization.

Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Jan 12, 2007 8:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I forgot about Wells

While I definitely like the Wells signing, he's far far from a sure thing. Plus the fact that Reyes has an injury history, Mulder coming off rotator cuff is a question mark(!), how will Wainwright handle the switch?, FifthStarter??? We have a metric-ton of upside in the rotation, but we also have a lot of question marks. Weaver would at least hedge our bets on all those guys. Worst case scenario, we have to trade a pitcher mid-season. Oh no.

While Weaver's performance isn't exactly a sure thing in itself, he is a very good bet to kill off innings if nothing else and is at least capable of of some decent pitching.

2 for 18 get it done?

Pujols > God

by joker24 on Jan 12, 2007 10:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

signing Weaver to a reasonable deal

makes a lot of sense. If they can get him for a 2 year deal, then our pitching staff potentially becomes a real strength. I'm not sold on Wells and the TBD 5th starter. We could use the depth and flexibility another guy like Weaver could bring. I think his signing would signal that the Cards are planning on taking the conservative approach for Mulder in '07. Even though I was predicting last season that Reyes would be traded because LaRussa hates him, DeWitt has repeatedly said the organization will not allow a trade of a cheap, young arm like Reyes and I believe he's taking a stand against Tony in this area. Now if they are blown away by an offer, say a young outfielder plus another prospect, that might change things.

by lefty fan on Jan 12, 2007 8:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not so sure now...

I like Weaver and think he could be a good innings eater and a decent #3/#4 if he could remain as solid as he ended last season, but with Carp, Reyes, Wainwright, Wells, Franklin/Thompson/Looper, and later Mulder...I'm not so sure we really NEED Weaver anymore. His acquisition would definitely force a roster change, and would be likely to block one of the up-and-coming minor-leaguers (Narveson, Hawksworth, Kiesler and Cate).

Besides, according to ZIPS, both Thompson and Looper are projected to be almost as good as Weaver, and for no additional money. So even if signing Weaver got us 2 more wins than the alternatives, he'd have to be pretty damn cheap to stay within the club's preferred price range for marginal wins...

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Jan 13, 2007 1:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cards just handed Flores...

a 1.8 million dollar contract to avoid arbitration.

800,000 this year. 1 million next.

sorry if someone's already posted this.

by AndyB83 on Jan 12, 2007 5:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Brandon Claussen

Ouch. Claussen agreed to a minor-league deal with the gNats. I figured he would've been holding out for a guaranteed MLB contract. He would have made a good addition to Memphis.

by liam on Jan 12, 2007 5:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not only that

but Reyes profiles as a power pitcher, which, as you pointed out, is one of the three keys to winning in the post-season.

Couldn't they just put Wainwright in the pen and dust Looper?

by Red in Chicago on Jan 12, 2007 6:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

One other thing

They will need an extra pitcher for most of the season if our community analysis is correct. They'll have plenty of time to see who is rotation material and who isn't.

by Red in Chicago on Jan 12, 2007 6:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Rotator Cuff

As someone who has been diagnosed and through therapy for a shoulder impingement I can tell you that being unable to raise your arm above your shoulder can be caused by things other than a rotator cuff. Of course, the solution to an impingement is easier, but I don't think we can say w/certainty the Cards should have known for sure that it was Mulder's rotator that was amiss.

by Pokey Joe on Jan 12, 2007 7:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

it seems as though some sort

of trade will be done. I have been very pesimistic of AR...however I would not dump him for a utility guy it would have to be Crawford or someone. At this point in my mind Reyes is still a prospect who has potential. He can be dealt for the right piece but is not expendable if thta makes sense...onlyt the right move prefably for OF help...no way id move AW unless i was ooed and awed...Ichiro maybe never happen but an example and not sure even then id trade the ages.

Reyes id part with b4 AW but i would not just dump reyes...id dump looper or naverson first even though i like navie..

Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Jan 12, 2007 10:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

reyes

i think guayzimi is on the right track. if we sign weaver then him, carp, and reyes will be the three locks. i think reyes guaranteed his spot after game 1. Tony wouldn't even send him back to AAA after that. Come on now...

plus since day one of the offseason walt has said that he would ideally like to sign three pitchers so that we had options with AW. i bet we stretch him out in spring training and see how he does. wells probably picks up the fourth spot after some spring competition and the other spot either goes to AW, franklin, or narve as a stop gap till mulder returns.

and i would definitely like to see some of those bullpen arms moved to pick up another bat. maybe thats why they made sure they had flores so they could use rincon as bait (if he comes back and shows something that is). a healthy rincon, looper, and possibly a minor leaguer could bring back something decent i would think.

by FutureMan on Jan 12, 2007 10:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Why weaver?

Seriously, signing weaver at this point would just be stupid.

We need bats, not pitchers. Our pitching projects to be one of the best in the NL, the offense just average. So why fix the thing thats already in good shape?

I don't get the fascination with expensive, average pitchers just beacuse they have already pitched a few years.

At this point I trust WJ a lot more than TLR. I hope he is smart enough to protect TLR from himself and not put another average vet on the team that TLR will run out there just because he is a vet.

Lets face it TLR does a lot of things well. However, his weakness is his inability to reconize when a young player is ready to replace an older, ineffective one.

See:
Izzy / AW
Mulder / Reyes
So & Juan / JRod
Ponson / Reyes, AW (in spring)

Its a repeated pattern that young players don't get a chance if any vet is handy to take the place.

What I cannot explain was the playoff version of TLR that suddenly went against his long term patern. Thats the one thing that gives me hope.

by DriverZn on Jan 12, 2007 10:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Quite Frankly

I never watch the show, and turned it on because dish said it was Arm wrestling and thought id check it out...it was the last few minutes of the show and they had these guys on there doing there takes...One guy did in his rif did the Big Mac story...He stated that Big mac hit 49 his rookie yr as a skinny kid and progressed over his career...that all the media that clamored over him in 98 and now cowered out. Yes he is tied int the steroid era, but baseball owes him for saving baseball...His stats and career are HOF worthy..this is the gist of what he said.

Do me what he said about him starting out with 49 and not just bam hitting 60 after never ever coming close stands out...His main point was that the media searched during the chase for something wrong about him and found nothing but now the turned away to make a statement but he voted for big mac...

it was an interesting take and made you pull for big mac.

Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Jan 13, 2007 12:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hmm...

>[T]o me what he said about him starting out with 49 and not just bam
>hitting 60 after never ever coming close stands out...

You mean like Sammy Sooser? ];->

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Jan 13, 2007 1:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ya

i added the bam part but he stated the facts abotu his rookie yr and having an established career. It was a guy from a mil. paper....if they re-air the quite frankly its worth watching.

Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Jan 13, 2007 2:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

reyes

although i DO NOT wish to trade reyes, if they were to sign weaver, and therefore look to trade anthony, they better get a carl crawford type player out of him in return, and make them take juans contract as well, because if you get anything less, you are giving him away

hell, make them take looper as well

Pujols is the greatest Cardinal in my lifetime.

by bigcardsfan5 on Jan 13, 2007 2:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs