Game 146 Open Thread: September 15, 2006

suppan schmidt
11-7, 4.25 11-8, 3.45
short followup to this morning's post: si.com has a preview of the sd-la series up today, written by john heyman of the Dodger Thoughts blog. more info there about the cards' two most probable nlds opponents.
the giants are a reasonable proxy for either team --- pitching-oriented club (5th in the league in era) with a couple of hitters you have to be careful with, and a bunch of other nondescript hitters. tonight's starter, jason schmidt, hasn't faced st louis in over a year; he has a history of pitching well against them (3.06 era in 18 career starts) but only an 8-8 lifetime record to show for it.
i'll be interested to see what he signs for. we all know he's a god, but he's won 15+ games only twice in an 11-year career -- and the market overvalues wins and undervalues some of the other metrics. he'll be 34 years old next year, which isn't that old for a pitcher of his type --- think smoltz, schilling, big unit, mussina, all going strong into / beyond their late 30s -- and he's better now than he was even 5 years ago. check out his year-to-year stats; took him a long time to get established. he came up young (22), pitched for bad teams, then struggled with injuries; didn't find himself until the 2d half of 2001, his 7th year in the league. i'm with azruavatar, i'd love to see the cardinals pursue him; hah, we dreamers. he's said to prefer the pacific northwest, but the mariners already have four $10m+ contracts on their payroll through 2007 and three beyond 2008; they may not open the coffers, one never knows. of course the cardinals will never coffer up either, but what's the harm in day-dreaming. . . . .
schmidt is nailing his PECOTA projection this year; the system sees him as a 4- to 5-win player through the next two or three seasons. his comps include jack morris (#1), roger clemens (3), early wynn (5), bob gibson (6), steve carlton (9), and tom seaver (10).
those guys were good.
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I'm headed to the
Here
On the other hand, I am excited to see Suppan pitch. I'm glad he's come around lately, and I hope he is the one free agent pitcher we resign - I wonder if we can get him to agree to a 2 year deal worth between $10 and $12 million.
I'm more excited by the growing consensus that he is our #2 postseason pitcher. Remember who outpitched Clemens in 2004 AND laid down a squeeze bunt in the same game...
I have forgiven
Also, I got Sup's autograph after his 8-0 beating vs. the Padres earlier this season. He was sick, had been "driving the porcelain schoolbus" has he put it, all day, but took the mound anyway. The homer he surrendered to Piazza was the longest homer I've seen in person since big Mac retired.
Over it
I agree
Izzy news...
From Bernie:
Goold reports on 1380 from Busch: Izzy did not feel right during his session in the bullpen. He doesn't want to push it in a game; doesn't want to hurt the team... He will try it again in a couple of days, hoping it feels better next time.... but obviously, reality is setting in. Not good.
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Sep 15, 2006 6:15 PM EDT reply actions
That is rough
PECOTA?
that means
for comparison's sake: carpenter is projected as a 5-win pitcher in 07 and 08, a 4-win pitcher in 09, and a 3.5 in 2010. that number corresponds to the "value add" a player brings --- the value above and beyond what, say, jeff weaver provides.
schmidt is a scratch
on izzy, sad story. i think he's done, which imo put AW's future in the pen for good. i'd prefer him as a starter as most here would, but i think he could be a very good closer. i bet it's how it plays out. the closer market is thin, guys bit by injury bugs who appear about done themselves .... gagne, dotel, foulke...and guys who got saves despite their peripherals and aren't safe bets...wickman, baez, etc.
Damn
old news
Why would you assume...
True the owner is a slime. He wanted to take a popular player down a peg so he could dump him w/ minimal backlash, but that doesn't mean there's no reason to suspect Gonzo.
Lineups
Vizquel SS
Hillenbrand 1b
Bonds lf
Durham 2b
Alou rf
Feliz 3b
E Alfonso c
Hennessey p
Miles ss
Dunc rf
Pujols 1b
Speez lf
rolen 3b
enc cf
belliard 2b
yadi c
suppan p
interesting to see rolen drop down a spot, and for spiezio at that.
well...
- They almost did it last year. They were at that 10 million a year level by most reports. I don't think they'd have to go too much beyond that $$ wise to get Schmidt if they move early.
- What has been the real downfall of the cardinals this year? Pitching. It's the bedrock that we've seen crumble. They thought - for whatever reason, good or bad - that Mulder was their #2 guy. He's not and he won't be. They need to acquire another top of the rotation arm now moreso than even last year.
- They are seeing the beginning of some PR problems. Nothing solves that better than a big name signing. This can also lead to very bad free agent signings (re: Mariners & Washburn/Beltre), but the Cardinals have to recognize that the only way to get that number 2 man in the rotation is to overpay.
I'm convinced...
I don't know why folks are down on the Cards willingness/ability to grab a top of the rotation starter. They thought they did it two off seasons ago, they made a bona fide effort last season, and this year they need one more than ever. Seems to me we should trust that they will do what they can to get one of these guys...
El Caballo
Pecota sees him as $7, $5.6, $5.175, $4.075, $2.775 million over the next 5 years. I think that we would be better off putting Rodriguez or Duncan in LF and seeing what happens (I'd prefer Rodriguez b/c I have more faith that his numbers are an accurate representation of what he can do - I like his OBP in the 2 slot) and spending the money elsewhere.
yeah
Byrnes could platoon with Dunc, and play some center. Enc hits like more like a cf'er. and Guillen could be had on the cheap due to his injuries. the question is if he can get along with tlr....
When the D-Backs canned Gonzo...
Didn't realize...
They did that with Looper/Rincon, so I guess they do know that...
Actually ,
Now having 26 million to spend this next off season makes you wonder how much they will actually spend and how much of that will go to a bonafide top teir pitcher (ie Schmidt or Zito)
Im not a betting man but I would bet that they only spend 20 million of that 26 million if not lower. Reason being, this whole issue with the financing for Ballpark Village has me worried that they will cut back payroll even more in the next few years until they finally get the first couple of phases of that project paid for. Its not looking good in the near future payroll wise.
by Poooo Daddy on Sep 15, 2006 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I suppose...
As for Burnett, 4/$40 was a respectable offer... It became less respectable after the Blue Jays blew the market apart, but that's a result of the Jays overspending, not the Cards lowballing...
Discounting 04 and Slide in 05
That said his 05 season was down and the second half of 06 he has has a 4 era. I wouldn't be for paying $12M/yr for a 34-36 year old with a 4 era (as his upside). He has steadily lost velocity and is a pitcher who works off his fastball.
For that reason I think the comparisons to Schilling and Johnson are inappropriate. These guys didn't lose velo until his age 40 season.
I've seen Schmidt play at Pac Bell three or four times over the years --- Watch the game tonight.. Schmidt's velo will be in the low 90s vs mid 90s of a few years ago. Think Matt Morris in his decline years after the 02 season. Matt's velo went from mid 90s to low 90s and those few miles/hr have made him go from a 3.2 ERA type pitcher to a league average 4.25 or so.
There are better options but they require creativity. I would still strongly prefer taking a flier on Eaton and developing Reyes next year then wasting money that could be better spent elsewhere on Schmidt... I would love to be wrong, but with pitchers like Schmidt all margin for error comes off the old No.1.
Schmidt wont be pitching tonight
How about Reyes and prospect for Andrew Jones?
by Poooo Daddy on Sep 15, 2006 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Smoltz
A better deal would be to get Dontrelle - I would give up either:
(A) Reyes and Duncan or
(B) Wainright, Rasmus and Pick a Double A prospect
Another option might be Freddy Garcia. We could probably get him cheaper, but in Garcia we would get a solid #3 no more no less.
Another dark horse deal might be Rich Harden. It would probably take a ton to pry him away, but if it could be done that would be an extremely high risk/high reward target.
Finally - If the Angels were willing to trade Ervin Santana and prospects for Tejada, I'd be interested in whether they would give up Santana and pick a prospect for Rolen...
Yuck
Smoltz has a 8mill option for next year. Schuerholz will pick that up - no brainer.
I wouldn't mind getting Dontrelle for the first option because I don't think Duncan is this good (although he did just hit a bomb tonight). And Dontrelle isn't that much older than Reyes. But I DO NOT want to trade Rasmus. He's the only real impact player in our system and I think that if you give CF to Enc for 2 years Rasmus takes over after that.
Harden is good but gets hurt an awful lot and I just don't see Billy Beane trading him till he's closer to free agency.
I think the Angels were the ones that balked at the price of Santana for Tejada not the Orioles. And if you trade Rolen, you have to acquire a new 3rd baseman and a new impact bat.
All risky - but what do you have?
- Aquiring Smoltz would be after his option is exercised. Agreed - no doubt it is picked up, but there is doubt in terms of whether smoltz is in the Braves LT plans (i.e. given the age of there team they might cash smoltz out)
- I don't want to give up Rasmus either, but we need a hurler
- Harden is high risk no doubt but I would still expect him to be one of the top five pitchers in the league over the next 10 years.
- Orioles owner balked on the trade of Tejada for Santana and prospects(per Buster Olney). I love Rolen, but if he could land us Santana and prospects we could pick up a third baseman with the money saved (or at least remain afloat with a Pedro Feliz type)
Mike Matheny
How about Pujols...
Pujols is the boss anyway, why not make it official...
I think thats a bad idea.
I think thats a bad idea.
who else in NL
NL Rookie of the year
Marlins pitchers...
Cheap coffee!!!!
by tudor rooter on Sep 15, 2006 8:53 PM EDT reply actions
Yep Curtain Call for Dunc
Can someone answer...
This guy is horrible. I guess teams are and always will be desparate for pitching.
IMO, Jamey Wright pitching in the major leagues is proof that someone will sign Mulder to a 1 or 2 yr contract for some decent money. Maybe 1 yr for $3-4 million with incentives and an option yr.
Of course, as I write this, Wright is making the Cards look silly.
how much worse is he
too bad we don't have the young pitching
I hope that wasn't what you were trying to imply of the cardinals cause, imo, it's patently untrue.
True but...
Wright has had an off CAREER. 67-98 with a 5.12 ERA in the NL is not a good record. The Giants don't have anyone else in the minors? Give a kid a chance.
Of course, he is pitching lights out as I write this. Go figure.
Bats are awake tonight
Rolen has another 20 HR season and lil Dunc is one away from his first.
Rolen's 2nd HR was beautiful piece of hitting...
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 15, 2006 9:49 PM EDT reply actions
Where's Kline?
Love to hear the crowd reaction if Kline comes in. What do you think? Cheers or Boos? Maybe mixed.
NICE AB by Dunc
O yeah and that guy batting after Dunc finally got in on the scoring...he's ok as far as first basemen go.
wow Dunc is playing
that's either a great breakout season or we should watch for decline.
BTW I love beating teams 10-2. Feels so 2004-ish. Ahh nostaglia
Dunc,Luna,J-rod
Im not sure how dunc is in the field but what I have seen in games when he bats hes either locked in or not..no middle ground yet
Could someone tell me though when he became platoon more often?
How nice a night is it
Life is good.
Mets
Cards 2004 version...
Avg/OBP/SLG/OPS
2004 Cards .278/.344/460/.804
2006 Mets .265/.334/.451/..785
In looking at HR power & productivity:
HR/HR per game/Runs/Runs per game
2004 Cards 214/1.32/855/5.28
2006 Mets 186/1.28/768/5.30
And the Cards won 105 games - the Mets are at 90 with 16 to play. I would argue that the NL in 2004 was also a little weaker than 2006. 2-7 in our lineup that year was fun to watch.....
Huh?
The third-place team in the NL Central (Chicago) won 89 games. San Francisco won 91, Houston won 93, Los Angeles won 93 and Atlanta won 96. Five teams won 90+ games in 2004. Only one team in the National League this season will win over 90 games.
The Cardinals dominated a very tough league.
by ryanisforever on Sep 15, 2006 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions
we haven't seen a drubbing like this since
Well there was those drubbings that we took by some White Sox team. But this is the first we've delivered in a while.
Back from work
The last game I missed in full due to work was the Carp gem
Yeah, that is strange...
Friday night...
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 15, 2006 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions
HS football
blackout tomorrow?
Good question...
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 15, 2006 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions
The schedule says WB-11...
I think only the FOX national games are blacked out.
Once more, with feeling...
Why bring Flores in this situation
This is the time we should be testing out some rooks.
If there's an upside
ive asked this 3 times tonight
Dunc
right
by punchinjudy on Sep 15, 2006 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Delucci bats left-handed...
Preston might not ok but he strikes out too much for my taste.
No worries, we've got all off-season to find a RH LF to platoon with Dunc.
anyone notice...
by RB @ Viva El Birdos on Sep 15, 2006 10:39 PM EDT reply actions
New pitcher
so got a hit
so
wow
Woot
by RosevilleRedbird on Sep 15, 2006 11:03 PM EDT reply actions



















