Free agent pitchers for 2007

by jomfa on Aug 28, 2006 3:03 PM EDT Comment 22 comments

We know we'll have Chris Carpenter in the rotation for next year. The question appears more about who will join him. Personally, I would like to have Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainwright both join the rotation. However, I also would like to have 2 very good pitchers brought in to round out the rotation. Honestly, none of the others on our 2006 staff meet this standard. Suppan isn't bad as a 4 or 5, but I'd like to expect that level of performance from Reyes and Wainwright and if we get better, then so be it. My #2 and #3 starters need to be better than Suppan - and much better than Marquis, Mulder and Weaver.

Having some bias towards a little youth, I found 5 pitchers who are potential free agents which could be attractive.

Tony Aramas Jr. will be 29 years old next year and has a 1.73 K/BB ratio this year and for his career. The only problem may be that he is not a ground ball pitcher. If his injuries are behind him, he could be a #3 - although he barely made this list.

Mark Buehrle will be 28 years old and if the Black Sox choose to let him go to St. Louis, then it could work out well. He has a 2.53 career K/BB ratio (but is only 2.07 this year) and gets more ground balls than fly outs (not by a lot though). Problem is he gives up some home runs - more than my ideal #2 or #3.

Ted Lilly will be 31 years old next year and has a 2.07 K/BB ratio (down to 1.87 this year), but hardly ever gets a ground out and gives up plenty of home runs.

Gil Meche will be 28 years old next year and only has a 1.56 K/BB ratio for his career, but does have a 1.82 ratio this year. The guy doesn't give up many home runs, but has the same amount of ground outs as fly outs.

Jason Schmidt will be 34 years old next year and is higher than what I was looking for, but.... has a stellar K/BB ratio at 2.26 career and 2.35 this year - gives up very few home runs, but does have more fly outs than ground balls.

I don't put as much emphasis on the ground out/fly out ratio, but know LaDunc have convinced Jocketty to search for those kinds of pitchers. Might as well be somewhat realistic, huh? As such, I'd almost rather have Schmidt and Meche, but the price on those will be high. Perhaps some kind of trade will be required - what we'd have to give up to get a decent #2 or #3 pitcher is alarming though.

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Hope

There might be a slim bit of hope for Buehrle. They've had McCarthy waiting to be a starter for what seems to be forever now. He's kinda like our Reyes, they need room to start him. With that said they have six starters. But Mark is huge in Chicago, and I think they'd rather part with a guy like Vazquez or Contreras. But yeah, I think Buehrle would be a great fit. But then again, he's very similar to Mulder except more durable.

by aet15 on Aug 28, 2006 3:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Buerhle

Buerhle would be nice and pitching in St. louis might do him good. But it could also be horrible for him to live up to the expectations we would put on him.

by Tarheel85 on Aug 28, 2006 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

kelvim escobar

Is another guy i would be interested in.

by Toddius396 on Aug 28, 2006 4:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

he re-signed

3 years/28.5 mil

by dmb60614 on Aug 28, 2006 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Smoltz

What about John Smoltz? It is reported that he would pitch elsewhere if he got a deal. I think that even though he is up there in age he would be an established guy that could help teach Reyes and Wainwright the right way to pitch. Any thoughts?

by Tarheel85 on Aug 28, 2006 4:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

love to have him

but the braves hold an $8m option on him for 2007.

by lboros on Aug 28, 2006 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can Smoltz decline it?

Because he could make more then that on the open market. I know he's turning 40 in 07, but he's been arguably the best pitcher in the NL this year.

Leads NL pitchers with 105 pitching runs created. (Carp has 102). He's tied for 2nd in K/G with 8.9. 7th in BB/G with only 2. 7th in ERA with 3.36. If the Braves were actually winning, we'd be talking about Smoltz for Cy Young.

aka "the Rev"

by erik on Aug 28, 2006 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and

I don't think Smoltz wants to comehttp://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/ajc_schultz_smoltz_waiting_for_word_o n_future/ back.

..."All I know is, after these last two years and with my desire to work out, I've got two or three more years, easy. I used to always be of the mind-set that, `If it's not here, it won't be anywhere else.' But that's not the case any more. I'll pitch somewhere else."

aka "the Rev"

by erik on Aug 28, 2006 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would love

Barry Zito in a Cardinal uniform. The guy fits the LaRussa/Duncan mold. He gets a lot of ground balls with that nasty curve. And he can get the strikeout when he really needs it.

Invisible Gophers---2006 Tempe, AZ Slow Pitch Softball Champs!!!

by BigdJC on Aug 28, 2006 5:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I'm with you there.

by aet15 on Aug 28, 2006 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

got about 15 million a year to spare

cause that's what it's gonna cost ~ 5 years/75 mill

I'd rather have Schmidt @ 4years/45million

Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Aug 28, 2006 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Schmidt

Schmidt's 34 years old. You really want to put him on a 4 year deal? Seems like he'll be past his prime in a couple of years. Especially considering he's had injury problems. I'd rather sign him to a 3 year deal. Zito seems like a more solid investment. Even though I realize that financially, it'll be a tough one to make.

by aet15 on Aug 28, 2006 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's the whole point though

Zito is much younger and durable and will consequently command significantly more money. Schmidt probably has 2 low-3.00 ERA years left. 2 years where he can be that front of the rotation kinda guy.

Personally, I think the Cardinals are very close to needing to do a major rebuilding effort. Schmidt would be the kind of hail mary signing we would make to win next year and then deal with the consequences of a long term signing later.

Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Aug 28, 2006 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dunno

If I've learned anything from the A's - Zito and Carpenter alongside three farm products could still create a successful pitching staff. And both of them are young enough to give us a few quality seasons, so if Wainwright and Reyes develop over the next couple years, watch out in about three years. That'd be one of the best 1-2 punches in the majors. I just feel like Zito is acting now AND building for the future, which is a good move.

by aet15 on Aug 28, 2006 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

o and I would be shocked if he doesn't get

4 years minimum. I don't think it's entirely implausible for some team to offer him 5 years. If we can sign him for 3 - great. But I'd hate to lose another ace caliber pitcher because we can't up the ante for one more year...

Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Aug 28, 2006 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pitching...

I would opt for Schmidt (it is a little cheaper, and you know we almost always go that route), as it leaves money to fill other holes.

I would go for Reyes in one slot, and maybe keep Suppan as a fifth starter. With Carpenter in tow next year, maybe a run at Burhle would be a good idea. This allows Wainwright to remain in the bullpen and continue to help us there, and maybe get groomed as a closer.

by JKW1974 on Aug 29, 2006 12:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think

Suppan, Schmidt and Buehrle would be way too expensive. If that's what you're suggesting . . . I believe Buehrle will get a deal around what Schmidt would get if he were to leave the Sox.

by aet15 on Aug 29, 2006 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

if we acquired Schmidt and Buehrle, I would assume we would just round out the rotation with Reyes, and Wainwright/Sosa/Narveson/Tankersley-clone. I'd be perfectly fine with that, though. That's a pretty sweet 1-2-3, and would definitely keep the team in conention. It would probably also mean bye bye to Jimmy E, perhaps with some sort of sign-and-trade move (it would make sense to him to waive the no-trade if we excersised the option, and then traded him at the $10M salary, rather than simply do the buyout thing). Move Enc to center, start Duncan in left, do some mixing and matching in right, and find a cheapish 2B.

I could certainly live with something like:

rotation:
Carp
Schmidt
Buehrle
Reyes
Wainwright

lineup:
SS Eck
LF Duncan
1B Pujols
3B Rolen
CF Enc
2B Belliard? Spivey? ??
RF Rodriguez? Schumaker?
C Bennett/Molina

With that rotation, I wouldn't mind the downgrade in the lineup, especially if Edmonds can be moved for someone to fill one of the holes listed. Then, just cheaply fill out the bullpen behind Izzy and Looper, and see what happens.

It won't happen, though--I believe this team would end up way over 100M in salary without seriously backloading some stuff. Which I wouldn't mind backloading a Schmidt salary with the intention of trading him after 2007.

by Valatan on Aug 29, 2006 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just glancing at the numbers

I think it would be possible. But you wouldn't be able to resign Carpenter to an extension and Jimmy would prolly have to go.

That would be a shaky OF though. Should Duncan or the RF not work out...you're looking at some gaping holes. Plus we already get little production from the C position...the offense could be anemic.

Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Aug 29, 2006 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah.

Though you could resign Carp--because the plan would have to be to sign Schmidt, and trade him before the 2008 season. this strategy would completely be a "damn the torpedos" and screw the future strategy--one that I'd love to see management take--I think that that team would have the maximum chance to win the 2007 world series

But the OF situation is pretty iffy--it would probably require a sign-and-trade of Edmonds for a David Dellucci/Kevin Mench-type. Still, something aggressive needs to be done

by Valatan on Aug 30, 2006 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good thought

But I remember reading last year how the sign-and-trade rarely works in baseball. Maybe with options there's an exception, but I think with all of the outfield talent this year that if anyone wanted to take on that salary, they'd go after someone else. The only reason we'd take Edmonds is he's essentially a $7 mil outfielder for us. Every other team, he'd be $10 mil, and they can get better production at that.

I do, however, agree that something agressive needs to be done. As long as we don't depart with Wainwright and Reyes, I'd love to see Jocketty make a risky move. Maybe it's time to shop Rasmus. I'm still behind shopping Izzy. Isn't he getting a huge amount of money? I'm pretty sure we could condition Looper to be a closer again for the time being.

Plus, for right field (if JED were to go, which I honestly hope he doesn't due to a lack of defense), don't you think we could maybe get Preston at a discount? I mean, honestly, he wouldn't be that bad of an option for a cheap outfielder.

by aet15 on Aug 30, 2006 2:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I could see

Boston taking a chance with Edmonds at $10M--he has waaaaay more upside than anyone else who will be availible, unless the Braves really want to put Jones on the block. If I were Jocketty (thank god I'm not), I would be quietly talking to teams right now about wehther or not they'd be takers for him during the offsesason.

by Valatan on Aug 30, 2006 2:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs