Duncan and Rodriguez

by ncgostl on Aug 16, 2006 8:03 AM EDT

I remember how excited I was by John Rodriguez's fast start when he came up to the majors mid-summer. But then I remember being disappointed by his power fade later in the season. After that experience with J-Rod, I've been wary of getting too excited by Chris Duncan's fast start.

Last night, Chris Duncan reached the same number of at bats in 2006 that John Rodriguez had in 2005 (149). This gives us a chance to compare roughly comparable sample sizes. Here are J-Rod's numbers in his 149 abs in 2005 after the fast start and fade (avg/obp/slg):

.295 .382 .436

Just for comparison, here is J-Rod in 158 abs in 2006:
.304. .379 .449

Here's Dunc's numbers through 149 abs in 2006:
.315 .376 .604

Two reactions. First, J-Rod has shown good consistency in getting on base. He shouldn't be in Memphis (but I'm preaching to the choir on this one). Second, Duncan has a power edge on J-Rod in a good size sample. We don't know how much of a boost Dunc gets from batting ahead of Pujols, but who cares? Keep him batting second. More evidence that we may have a bona fide cheap, homegrown solution to leftfield.

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Comments

Too bad we couldn't have tried JRod in

RF rather than Enc. I like Enc & he's producing but if JRod's numbers are real (and imo they are) that would be two above average corner OF making league minimum.

But JRod is nice to have off the bench.

by azruavatar on Aug 16, 2006 9:01 AM EDT reply actions

Well JRod may not really be an above average

corner OF on second thought...better OBP but prolly a lower SLG. Still...the argument remains the same.

by azruavatar on Aug 16, 2006 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions

what about the D??

Sure I like JRod and Duncan's bats, but I shutter at the thought of having both in the OF at the same time. Jimmy isn't THAT good. He can help cover 2/3 of the OF but not all of it.

Pujols For MVP!

by TheFranchise9 on Aug 16, 2006 9:31 AM EDT reply actions

I understand the concern

I really don't think that corner outfield defense is that critical. So you have a dozen more singles over the course of the year...or a handful of singles turned into doubles. Duncan's offensive prowess more than makes up for any shaky defense. I think the Cardinals place too high an emphasis on their corner outfield defense. Manny doesn't cripple the Red Sox w/ his defense. The Yankees get by with playing Bernie "Rag Arm" Williams in a corner spot.

The cardinals derive their offense from less common positions right now - 3rd, CF - where we have gotten outstanding production. I think it would behoove the Cardinals to move to an offensive mindset for the corner OF spots, imho.

by azruavatar on Aug 16, 2006 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Manny's also less horible than his reputation

he's lazy and makes boneheaded plays, but has a good arm, and reads bounces off of the monster pretty well.

by Valatan on Aug 16, 2006 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Pitching around Lil' Dunc?

Straight from the RedReporter game recap:

"New rule: Do not pitch to Chris Duncan anymore. Walk him to get to Pujols if you have to."

He honestly just suggested pitching around CDunc to get to El Hombre. I was laughing so hard milk came out of my nose. I don't think anyone has ever suggested walking someone to get Pujols.

Go CDunc!

by DarkHelmut on Aug 16, 2006 10:26 AM EDT reply actions

also from red reporter

The Reds should consider pitching all of their lefties today. The Cards this season are just 17-28 against left-handed starting pitching while they are 46-27 against right-handers. Bring back Dave Williams!!!!

by PGeorge @ Viva El Birdos on Aug 16, 2006 12:09 PM EDT reply actions

cheap way to go in 2007

LF: Chris Duncan
CF: Juan Enc
RF: J-Rod

Hopefully if the Cards brass goes this way we see them drop some serious dough on starting pitching, relief help, and 2nd base (or SS and move Eck to 2nd). It might be a smart move because we have a league average OF and nothing near league avg next year at those other positions. Still, I'd like to see JEd back next year since we have to give him $3 million anyways. So maybe that is our OF in 2008 (with Haerther, Stavinoha, and/or Boyd as backups).

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Aug 16, 2006 12:52 PM EDT reply actions

Marti

forgot about Marti he'll likely be a backup in '08 as well.

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Aug 16, 2006 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Marti is striking out alot at AA

we have better younger prospects we should be considering than him

by azruavatar on Aug 16, 2006 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions

i'm just saying....

he has a chance along with 3 other younger OFs that I mentioned to possibly be a BACKUP TWO YEARS from now. I know he is striking out a lot, but its his first chance against advanced pitching really so maybe 2 years from now he'll have cut down the Ks be major league ready.

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Aug 16, 2006 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions

2 years and he'll be 33

and ready for that decline phase

If the guy wasn't big in Cuba (isn't that where he's from?) then he's not gonna do shit here. I know we have a thin farm system but seriously this guy is not worth paying attention to. I don't even understand why the Cards drafted him...no upside here imo.

by azruavatar on Aug 17, 2006 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions

he might be 27...

no one really knows. Actually I am begining to resign myself to the fact that he is 31, but who knows. I'm not saying he'll be good, but he could provide some pop off of our bench in 2008. He is an interesting player (not prospect) either way.

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Aug 17, 2006 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions