Luna for Belliard open thread
the cardinals have a new second baseman. i'll be updating this post periodically as time permits.
Update [2006-7-30 19:46:12 by lboros]: here are belliard's career stats. last year he set career highs in homers, rbis, and extra-base hits; 2d-bests in batting avg and slugging. luna, rather ironically, is hitting for the exact same avg this season, with a higher obp and about the same slugging pct. both players are at the upper range of their PECOTAs -- belliard at ~75 pct, luna at ~90 pct.
contracts: belliard is a free agent after this year; luna won't become arbitration eligible until after the 2007 season.
defense: there aren't a lot of numbers available for luna because his playing time at 2b has been so limited. belliard scored very poorly in chris dial's zone-rating-based system for evaluating defense; pinto's probabilistic model of range has belliard in the middle of the pack.
splits: belliard's numbers have been helped a lot by playing in jacobs field. at home from 2003-05, he had an .803 ops at home, .742 on the road. in 2006 he is better on the road (.786) than at home (.720).
snap reaction: i don't get it. luna and belliard aren't all that disinguishable in terms of ability; one might argue that belliard's longer track record of offensive achievement makes him a better bet for the stretch run, but that's a pretty weak argument. luna is younger, still on the development upswing and, more important, under club control for four more years; he also can play shortstop, which belliard cannot. aaron miles now becomes the cardinals' backup ss, and he's not qualified to play the position.
i don't really see how this helps.
additional comments in mike dallas' diary.
indians fans react at let's go tribe.
160 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
six of one, half dozen of the other
Why weren't we more serious about a 2B in the off season? Oh yeah, we weren't allowed to pay more than $2M. I assume that Luna will be relatively cheap for a few years (even with some arbitration). Belliard will be a free agent, if the reports are right. Is there anyway we resign him under $2M? Sigh.
On the bright side, I believe Belliard is an upgrade over Miles. Now please tell me Belliard is an upgrade over Luna.
The 2 million dollar cap...
if the company line
I'm sorry Larry...
spell check...
value on the dollar
that $2m cap on the cards' 2b position
it wasn't just a rumor that some kooks on the internet made up so they'd have something to gripe about. some credible people are/were saying it's a fact.
in fact, the only evidence to the contrary that you can cite comes from inside the organization --- and those people might have, um, motives to pretend the $2m cap didn't really exist.
did the cap exist? i'm more persuaded by those who say it did than by those who say it didn't. the club's lack of interest in freely available high-priced 2bmen like loretta luis vizcaino and even grud'k does not support the notion that they were willing to flex beyond $2m.
by the way, i thought they were correct to pass on grud'k. i'd have preferred loretta or vizcaino to the cheap platoon, but i preferred the cheap platoon to grudz'k. this trade essentially reverses course; they're breaking up the cheap platoon for a guy of grudk's ability. they should've stuck to their guns.
Assumptions...
As far as the cap, it's just to ridiculous to be true. Seriously, you didn't answer my question about Utley. If an "Impact" second basemen was available on the free agent market, I have my doubts that Jocketty's hands would have been tied. The organization has shown to much trust in Jocketty in the past to tell him he can't spend a certain amount on a position. That's just not their MO. It's more likely Jocketty had some study's done (probably by Asst. GM John Moz..) and decided it wasn't worth it.
Rosenthal may have GOTTEN his info from Grudz's agent, and it's not like Grudz's agent couldn't have floated that rumor for his client. Again, all I am saying is that IT IS NOT FACT. A rumor from a great source (like Rosenthall) IS still just a rumor. A rumor that doesn't make sense AND is denied by the organization just seems to be false to me.
Doesn't this sound logical?
i find it believable
i didn't answer the chase utley question because the scenario you've outlined is not realistic. if a guy were an "impact" free agent, he wouldn't be available for $3m a year. the cards might authorize jock to bid $3m a year on such a player . . . . . but the market for said player would be $6m a year or more.
again, it's all academic. jocketty made the right call --- he economized at 2b and got reasonable production out of his minimum-wage platoon. i don't understand why he's changing course here; the upgrade involved doesn't seem worth the cost of the move . . . .
Yeah
Regarding Ronnie - Living in Chicago, I have several White Sox friends. They are apparently VERY HAPPY that we got Belliard out of their division. Apparently he's always been scary against them. So if that means anything, maybe he's "an AL central killer." And with that, maybe Walt is already thinking about the World Series? Heh.
Why?
Also, the information being put out by the agent was that the ORGANIZATION was limiting payroll on second base, NOT the ownership. The facts seem to be getting fuzzy on this.
As far as my scenerio not being realistic, you are correct. Saying that, I would not have "realistically" figured we could have had Loretta for a bag of baseballs in the off-season. You can't kill Jocketty for not making that trade, when nobody in their right mind thought that it was an option.
Touche
by Baily on Jul 30, 2006 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm happy with the trade...
Think Walt has any more moves in progress? or is this it?
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Jul 30, 2006 7:41 PM EDT reply actions
belliard will be an upgrade
Luna...
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Jul 30, 2006 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Has the legend of Walt
This had to be
Oh well, at worst it's a lateral move, though we have a shot at losing Belliard at the end of the season. So who will we recycle next year?
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 30, 2006 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Not a good deal
by deanj on Jul 30, 2006 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Tony has always said he's a special player BUT
give him the chance to start
To add to that comment
Walt gets
so walter has to serve
he does an amazing job. this is not a good trade, but it's not really walt's fault . . . . .
Unreasonable?
by 26thMan on Jul 30, 2006 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions
not "unreasonable"...
but the simple fact is that there aren't any really great moves to make. we can't afford to spend what the Yanks can for guys like Abreu/Lidle (plus they gave 4 prospects... 3 guys under 20). Willis/Cabrera aren't available, certainly without giving up both Reyes and Wainwright. i doubt Schmidt is available for any price with the Giants still in the race.
in fact, no "impact" player is available without giving up at least one of those guys. and we simply can't do it. perhaps Walt has another Walker-special coming, but i just don't see it.
we might marginally upgrade our bullpen, but that's hardly going to fix this team. i wouldn't bother picking up another junk starter... we've got enough.
our best hope is that Mulder returns in very good form, either Suppan/Marquis/Reyes/Weaver pitches well enough to be a decent 3rd option, and the other is serviceable.
we've got a better offense now than Houston had last year (even if it isn't as good as our own from a year ago). crazy things happen in the playoffs sometimes. i'm afraid we'll just have to be the lucky, undeserving underdogs this year if we're going to go deep.
but i really don't know what Walt could've done with the resources that he has.
Semantics
by 26thMan on Jul 31, 2006 3:16 AM EDT up reply actions
True
I wouldn't say
by PGeorge @ Viva El Birdos on Jul 30, 2006 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it's a very minor upgrade.....
by stanchar @ Viva El Birdos on Jul 30, 2006 7:57 PM EDT reply actions
Very very minor
by deanj on Jul 30, 2006 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions
That.......
by stanchar @ Viva El Birdos on Jul 30, 2006 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmmm
to them...
to us, he's a decent prospect who never got a chance to demonstrate his potential.
Hopefully they release him a 3rd time...
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 30, 2006 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Both sides seems unhappy.
by deanj on Jul 30, 2006 8:14 PM EDT reply actions
Will the new guy
Excellent...
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 30, 2006 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Shawn Green.
I think if we had gotten Mota, this trade would have been a lot better for us.
Duncan is the LF...
Even the Cubs idiots said 'this guy could be a special ballplayer'.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 30, 2006 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Luna, JRod, Kid Reyes, Wainwright
Luna loses out to Miles...
Jrod to Taguchi/Encarnacion...
Reyes, Wainwright to Ponson, Weaver...
I don't like this trend. btw how much have we spend on 2b now??? I'd guess more than 2 million. If we had just stuck with Grudz in the first place, we wouldn't be reelegated to lateral 2b moves and could upgrade our starting rotation/bullpen/left field.
I think it's ridiculous that this is the move that is supposed to get us down the stretch. I hope that the front office decides to start playing productive players and not just ones that are favored.
Ronnie Belliard is not the difference between the Cardinals and the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Twins, Tigers, etc. Walt had best have another move in store because this one is less than inspiring.
Giving young players a chance
I hope they learned a lesson on being too frugile this past off-season. Grudz may have been asking for too much, but in hindsight, it's hard to say that it wouldn't have been worth it. And while Burnett hasn't exactly lived up to expectations, he still gives Toronto what we're now desperately seeking from our rotation; a chance to win every time he steps on the mound. Those small off-season savings are haunting our prospect of a successful post-season.
Great point!
I think Walt will take a different approach this offseason.
Luna Doesn't Have It Mentally
Belliard's an offensive upgrade for the team. Basically, it gives us Grudz back.
If we obtain help in the 'pen, and switched Wainwright into the rotation, I'd be content to let this team have a run at beating the Mets to get into the Series.
It's hard to see this as a champion quality team, though. We can't even beat the stupid Flubs.
Here's hoping
Walt's comments on Luna
Don't like it don't like it don't like it.
Marti up to replace Jrod?
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Jul 30, 2006 8:59 PM EDT reply actions
umm probably not
How about Marti up to replace Taguchi?
I really like Taguchi in CF, but he's only hitting .130 since the all-star break and Encarnacion should be okay in CF. I doubt that Marti is ready yet anyhow, so it probably doesn't matter.
Well, Taguchi is healthy
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 30, 2006 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions
JRod isn't healthy?
Are you sure about that?
Messed up his ankle
Well..., crap
Hope J-Rod's okay, though.
by rob is back on Jul 30, 2006 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions
another problem:
the more i think about this, the more i don't like it.
and what've we spent so far on 2B? Luna, Cruz, Spivey, Miles, and Belliard have surely added up to more than the 3 million that we wouldn't pay Grudz, whom we could've resigned and kept Luna.
i don't like the decision-making. here's hoping Jock pulls something crazy out of his ass.
why do we need a SS?
i meant after '07...
but Eck is not the kind of player that will age well, i don't think. he doesn't have the raw ability to overcome the lack of speed and reaction time that comes with age. i'm not sure i'd want him past '07. i mean, he's alright for now, and for the money we're paying him, but Luna has better numbers than him. i love Eck, but he's not that great.
and with nothing in the farm, we've just left ourselves with no flexibility and no options. it just doesn't make sense to me.
2b
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2000/04/possible-free-agents.html
Luna
To me it is also a signal that Walt does not intend to try and find a 2b at the scrap heap this offseason. Maybe the fact that Belliard is a free agent is a benefit in that it allows us to go get a real, everyday 2b. Sound like Pollyanna?
Say what!?
by vince eating tarp on Jul 30, 2006 9:10 PM EDT reply actions
By saying
by vince eating tarp on Jul 30, 2006 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions
soriano, wilkerson, dellucci,
there are better offensive players available. and some of them play outfield.
that said, they might not be available to us - or maybe DeWitt/Jock was unwilling to pay the price - but there are certainly other guys available.
and that statement makes it sound like he's done dealing. that's not good.
Read that as
OR...
both ways to look at it are right
Then there are those who think we can keep a playoff caliber team for 5 years or so into the future, so let's keep tweaking and ya never know once you get into the playoffs.
I'd like to know what side everybody's on. Just curious, me... I think let's keep tweaking and keep getting to the playoffs. Look at the Yankees a loaded lineup guarantees a depleted farm and that's it
by vince eating tarp on Jul 30, 2006 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm with you
But the thing that really agitates me is that I'm not sure which one they prefer, because they don't seem to be doing either one very well.
by rob is back on Jul 31, 2006 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm going on record as in favor of rebuilding.
Of course that's a moot point, since I don't think TLR is the right manager for a rebuild project. Until he's fired or retired, we'll muddle along with the "tweak" mode, I'm afraid.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 31, 2006 8:37 AM EDT up reply actions
BoSox...
apparently, they are willing to dump nixon or willy mo pena. they took suppan once before... think they'll do it again?
This can't be it...
I sort of disagree about 2nd
I guess my point is that our outfield players (other than Taguchi) are looking better, while our middle-infield is looking awful thin and we need them to get on base on some.
Miklasz items
- Belliard adds $1.3 million to the payroll (after deducting Luna's remaining salary).
- Jocketty hopes to land a reliever tomorrow.
- Talks have ceased (for now, anyway) with Philadelphia over Fultz / Cormier.
- Jocketty hopes to add a corner OF after the deadline -- most likely Shawn Green.
- Jocketty has room to take on more payroll -- how much remains to be be seen, and he isn't saying.
- Miles will be the backup SS. (please excuse me while I go cough up something).
-- Bernie asl
Did you see this one from Bernie?
La Russa said he thinks Luna can become a "special" player.
"There isn't anybody who's had more confidence in him than our staff," La Russa said. "We've given him playing time. He's responded. I think he has a chance to be a special player and he's still learning."
Yeah, no one had more confidence in Luna more than La Russa and his staff.
That's why Luna played behind Aaron F. Miles this season.
Give me a freaking break...
--B
Eck has seen
by The Ol Goaler on Jul 30, 2006 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions
The trade.
by matt reeder on Jul 30, 2006 9:22 PM EDT reply actions
what i dont get
I liked luna as a utility guy but after this series to me it was clear they needed an everyday 2b maybe thats why luna got the starts this weekend and IMO didnt do that well D wise..very slow with the turn soemtimes on a routine play. I will miss luna more for the occasional OF spot..but Im guessing the indians didnt want SO.
also if they do get green these are pretty decent moves. Not earth shattering, but beliard is good better than his stats may say. He has big play potential and is much better D wise form what I have seen. If they add Green it looks good now the pithcing has to come around
Grudz hit over .300 the two years pevious to
1.3 million for Belliard
1.2 million for Spivey
350K for Miles
= 2.85 million...
wouldn't it have been worth an extra 1.15 million (1.5 when you count keeping Luna as well) for an everyday starter who is batting .286/.328/.403? I think so. We wouldn't have lost so much ABs to Aaron Miles and our defense would have been much much better and we would have had luna until 2010 under our control (or at least retained him as a trading chip for a better trade).
I'm not a fan of this trade but the whole 2b position has me really pissed off this year.
Before we get carried away....
Position player wise, 2 months ago, we had 1B, SS, 3B, C, RF, CF locked in. The holes we had were LF and 2B. Duncan's return to the big leagues has been a rousing success. I doubt very much that we could find a better LF on the trade market other than Soriano, and bringing him in made very little sense because we would be renting him and giving up the future (something that has gotten us into this mess).
So, now we needed a 2B. Miles isn't great, but Luna wasn't getting to play. So, we sacraficed bench depth for reliability. Not that Belliard is an upgrade over Luna at 2B (I have yet to see if Belliard knows that standard cut/basecoverage rules) but it gives us a 'TLR-trusted' version of Luna.
Now, we need pitching. We need a starter and some bullpen help. As far as the bullpen, we've done nothing to bolster it. I have no excuse for that.
However, as far as starting pitching, we may be getting a widely regarded top shelf starter after the trade deadline: Mark Mulder. A healthy Mark Mulder is better than 98% of the pitchers you will find out on the trade block. If Mulder is healthy, and it is a gamble, our rotation would look like this:
Carpenter
Mulder
Suppan
Marquis
Reyes
That is better than it looked at the start of the season. In essence, we added a quality arm in either Reyes (if they'd just let him pitch) or Mulder(if he returns healthy).
To get another frontline starter, Walt would have had to make a deal that depleated our farm system or created a hole in LF (giving up Duncan).
Yes, I as much as anyone would have liked to 'load up with All-Stars' and make a run at the World Series. However, I have confidence that a healthy Cardinals team with these lineups/rotations CAN get to the World Series, atleast in the weak NL, as long as the Cubs don't take the Wild Card. :P
Eckstein
Duncan
Pujols
Rolen
Edmonds
Encarnacion
Belliard
Molina
Pitcher
Carpenter
Mulder
Suppan
Marquis
Reyes
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 30, 2006 9:27 PM EDT reply actions
Long relief...
I don't trust him, even less so than Bipolar Betty.
Look at Marquis' postseason lines compared to that of Weaver's.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 30, 2006 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions
MY KINGDOM !!!
by iron duke75 on Jul 30, 2006 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I know you were
by iron duke75 on Jul 30, 2006 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Good Analysis...
i don't hear fretting
here's something to consider. vs rhp, belliard will be replacing aaron miles. miles' line vs rhp dating back three years: .297 / .322 / .373. belliard's line vs rhp is .267 / .321 / .392.
i don't see a massive upgrade there.
vs lhp, belliard replaces luna. belliard vs lhp has hit .315 / .389 / .518. luna vs lhp in his career has hit .290 / .345 / .424.
if that advantage seems to you significantly to outweigh a) the downgrade at backup ss, and b) the loss of luna's services next year at the league minimum, then it's a decent trade.
Small Sample Size...
you could be right
my opinion differs from yours, but you make a fair case. we'll find out in the next 2 months!
I HOPE I'm right...
The Surreal Life
Maybe
per Bernie:
"There isn't anybody who's had more confidence in him than our staff," La Russa said. "We've given him playing time. He's responded. I think he has a chance to be a special player and he's still learning."
Yeah, no one had more confidence in Luna more than La Russa and his staff.
That's why Luna played behind Aaron F. Miles this season.
Dammit
Phillips...
apparently, because Green has a limited no-trade clause, there can be no waiver-trades because the player can't be claimed off of waivers.
it makes sense. but Phillips has been wrong before. and didn't Walker have a no-trade? anyone know about this?
thats
Belliard = Not Quite Fat Man
Don't forget
but we already had a belliard (i.e. Luna)
That's something I hadn't thought about
by rob is back on Jul 31, 2006 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions
stros
why would they do that
Marquis to be dealt?
heilmans numbers
this would be a good deal
by cards4ever on Jul 30, 2006 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah...
so there's no way it'll happen. although, Heilman has been on the outs with the Mets, so who knows?
I wonder how much, if any, difference
by rob is back on Jul 31, 2006 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree
7.73 k/9, 2.00 k/bb, 4.56 era, but he finished last year with a 3.17 era in 53 games, including 7 starts. And he could help in either the bullpen or the rotation.
I like it!
by rob is back on Jul 31, 2006 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions
This sounds like a great deal
Although...
Do you really think
That said... of course it would be great if that could happen. Marquis almost has me pining away for 2003 vintage Garrett Stephenson. Almost.
by 26thMan on Jul 31, 2006 3:05 AM EDT up reply actions
I wonder myself
Plus, Marquis isn't exactly worthless at his age and with his talent. Maybe they figure they have a good chance of "fixing" him and then re-signing him, since he is a native New Yorker.
I could see how it could work out well for both teams, but I'd bet on St. Louis getting the better deal first.
this sounds like it
another bullpen/back-of-the-rotation youngster for cheap
too good to be true???
OhPleaseOhPleaseOhPleaseOhPlease!!!
OMG that would make me soooo happy!!!
hmm...
If I had known
P. S. If the Marquis for Heilman rumors are true, do it in a heartbeat. As a side note to that, I'd love to see how Marquis handles the New York fans, LOL...
Do we want to trade Bipolar Betty to the Mets...
I dunno, I'm more than weiry about trading against a potential foe.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 31, 2006 12:10 AM EDT reply actions
I'm perfectly comfortable with that possibility
by rob is back on Jul 31, 2006 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Heilman is like 8 months younger than Marquis...
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 31, 2006 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions
That's why I said it was my subjective opinion
And if Heilman doesn't become a reliable part of our rotation, then he has the potential to be a reliable bullpen arm, which is a big part of my assessment. Regardless of whether we were to make this trade or not, we're very likely to move someone out of the rotation in the coming months and Heilman seems like a more realistic possibility in the bullpen then Marquis.
Oh well
(That is a happy exclamation point)
by viva el rojo pajaro 42 on Jul 31, 2006 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
I dated myself once
by iron duke75 on Jul 31, 2006 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Rick Wise...
Rick Wise also had one of the greatest games EVER. http://retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B06230CIN1971.htm
Overall, though...I'm just leary of giving a team like the Mets whose rotation is getting ancient by the day, someone who is younger and has been decent in the postseason.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 31, 2006 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Really?
Good for Carlton. I'm sure glad we didn't give him that extra $5,000 he wanted.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 31, 2006 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Tongue
Check the Diaries on the sidebar of the main page.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 31, 2006 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions
No need to apologize
at mlbtraderumors
by cards4ever on Jul 31, 2006 12:36 AM EDT reply actions
What????
We OWN Lidge.
by viva el rojo pajaro 42 on Jul 31, 2006 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions
i dont know if i worded that right
by cards4ever on Jul 31, 2006 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd love to see them trade Oswalt for Soriano
I'm not sure that it doesn't make sense for the Astros, though, because they need some offense and this is likely their last go around with Clemens, Oswalt and Pettite, who are all free agents after this season.
I would love for them to
by Toddius396 on Jul 31, 2006 1:26 AM EDT reply actions
Marquis...
by matt reeder on Jul 31, 2006 1:37 AM EDT reply actions
Trade talk makes me forget
Aaron Heilmen
Jason Schmidt
These are names I like pitching-wise...
Crain Wilson
Shawn Green
Names I like for hitters...
(trying to be at least somewhat realistic)
I'm going to watch To Have or Have Not and
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 31, 2006 2:13 AM EDT reply actions
Unfortunately, with our Hotel Marquis...
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 31, 2006 3:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Great movie...
sigh
another small exerpt from Baseball Prospectus. Good article that basically echoes the statements we've made here about swapping the same player.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5366&PHPSESSID=699f79269dd9ad397ee0aca0d d5eedf3
I never
I wish TLR would give some youngsters a shot, Luna was hands down better than Miles. Haren was/is a terrific starter. Reyes. Wainwright.
Oh, but at least Duncan gets a ton of at-bats and plenty of playing time. Gee...wonder why!?
Cleveland Fans
maybe
by Birds on the Matt on Jul 31, 2006 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions
even worse, in my opinion
the idea of miles as our backup ss scare the bejeebus out of me. the idea of miles as our first choice pinch runner scares me. gollum pretty much scares me in general, though i think i could take him if it came to that.



















